One-Eyed Richmond Forum
Football => Richmond Rant => Topic started by: one-eyed on November 19, 2019, 03:13:04 PM
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The Herald-Sun has done a premiership clock for each club. They, of course, have us as the team to beat.
So who will be our challengers in 2020?
They have GWS and the Eagles as the next best flag contenders followed by the Pies and Cats then the Lions, Dees and Dogs.
Premiership clock: Is your club ready to strike?
Jon Ralph, Ben Broad, Al Paton
Herald-Sun
19 November 2019
RICHMOND
WE SAY: 11.30
LAST YEAR WE SAID: 11.30
The Tigers missed out on a three-peat but couldn’t be better placed to go back-to-back – good luck kicking a winning a score against a defence featuring All-Australians Alex Rance, Dylan Grimes and Bachar Houli plus the rock solid Nick Vlastuin and David Astbury. There are lots of contenders for Brandon Ellis’s spot led by Sydney Stack, Jack Ross, Patrick Naish and Riley Collier-Dawkins, who all played in a VFL flag this year along with Noah Balta and Mabior Chol. Houli is the oldest player on the list at 31 but he just had a career-best year. Jack Higgins’ comeback could the feel-good story of the year. The team to beat.
2020 Last year's prediction
GWS 11:00 9:00
West Coast 11:00 11:30
Collingwood 10:00 11:30
Geelong 10:00 9:00
Brisbane 9:00 5:00
Melbourne 9:00 11:00
W.Bulldogs 9:00 7:00
Essendon 8:00 11:00
Carlton 7:00 3:00
Hawthorn 7:00 9:00
Port Adelaide 7:00 7:00
North Melb. 6:00 8:00
St Kilda 6:00 4:00
Fremantle 4:00 6:00
Sydney 4:00 7:00
Gold Coast 2:00 1:00
Adelaide 1:00 10:00
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/more-news/how-far-away-is-your-afl-club-from-tasting-premiership-glory/news-story/149384a4f9be71216528cacfddc58109
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Tigers reserves in the mix somewhere?
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I would say the Dogs. They always seem to trouble us. Mind you we usually play them at Docklands rather than the 'G while Dimma and our match committee chose too small a side the last time we played them. You need to go tall against the Bulldogs.
Tigers reserves in the mix somewhere?
:laugh:
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The 6 teams that can win the 2020 premiership:
Kane Cornes
SEN
2 Dec 2019
Geelong
“Even though they lost Tim Kelly, one of the best midfielders in the competition.
“They get Jack Steven, he’s got rid of that pot belly, he looks fit. (Josh) Jenkins will be handy. (Patrick) Dangerfield, (Joel) Selwood and (Tom) Hawkins still with some good footy left.
“I know their finals record is poor but I still think they can win the flag.”
GWS Giants
“GWS can win it, no doubt.
“They got (Sam) Jacobs in, Callan Ward back, get Toby Greene and Josh Kelly fit, Jeremy Cameron is in his prime. They got two further top-10 draft picks to add to their talent.
“(Stephen) Coniglio fit, Giants can win it.”
Richmond
“Richmond can clearly win it. They’re in as good a shape as any team in recent memory to go back-to-back.”
West Coast
“The addition of Tim Kelly maybe gives them the best midfield in the comp.
“Jack Darling is emerging as one of, if not, the best high key forward in the game.
“Highly dependent on the fitness of (Nic) Naitanui, Josh Kennedy and Jeremy McGovern just how far West Coast can go.”
Collingwood
“Can win. They’ll be thereabouts.”
Western Bulldogs
“They have a list capable of winning it.
“Josh Bruce and Alex Keath plug some holes for them and their midfield is as good as any in the game.”
The 6 teams that are in the finals mix (but can’t win the flag):
Hawthorn
Sydney
Port Adelaide
Melbourne
Essendon
Brisbane
The 6 teams that cannot win:
Gold Coast
North Melbourne
Adelaide
St Kilda
Fremantle
Carlton
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2019/12/01/cornes-names-the-6-teams-that-can-and-cant-win-the-2020-flag/
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Which clubs can challenge Tigers in 2020?
Chris Cavanagh
Herald Sun
December 5, 2019
Western Bulldogs have the second-best list heading into 2020, according to a new-and-improved ratings formula from the AFL’s official number-crunchers.
Champion Data’s list ratings after the trade and draft period have the Bulldogs second behind only reigning premier Richmond for raw talent.
Collingwood (third) and Greater Western Sydney (fourth) round out the top four, with 2018 premiers West Coast fifth and 2019 preliminary finalist Brisbane a surprising 11th.
Premiers in 2016, the Bulldogs won eight of their last 11 home-and-away games this year to finish seventh before falling at the first September hurdle with an elimination final loss to the GWS.
However, Luke Beveridge’s team made two big additions during the trade period, securing key forward Josh Bruce from St Kilda and key defender Alex Keath from Adelaide to bolster either end of the ground.
“I think their list is pretty good,” former Western Bulldogs coach Rodney Eade said.
“I’m surprised they’re starting at No. 2 but I wouldn’t be surprised if they finished at No.2 because I think there is a projection upwards for them.
“Now they’ve added the two talls (Keath and Bruce), they’ve got a well-balanced squad and you would think a lot of their youngsters are going to improve again.
“I would have thought they would be ranked in the top four or five, but I’m surprised West Coast is not second-best.
“It maybe creates a bit of pressure for them (the Bulldogs), but they’ve certainly got a good list.”
Bookmaker TAB has the Bulldogs as seventh-favourite at $13 to win next year’s premiership and $7 to make the Grand Final.
Melbourne was the big slider in the rankings year on year.
The Demons were rated the best list before last season but are 12th entering 2020.
St Kilda sits at No.13 in the rankings despite a bumper trade period which saw the Saints land Brad Hill, Zak Jones, Paddy Ryder, Dougal Howard and Dan Butler.
Carlton has the third-worst list despite the Blues having 12 players in their squad who were selected as top-10 picks in the national draft.
The rankings are based purely on individual talent and are not linked to overall team statistics or system.
Champion Data’s new ratings formula this year takes into account individual players’ output, game time, what position they play, what they contribute to each position, durability and how likely they are to be selected.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/more-news/champion-data-ranks-every-afl-clubs-list-for-2020-season-and-has-richmond-on-top/news-story/c514e480c7db10e5112b1feb6a714733
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Which clubs can challenge Tigers in 2020?
Western Bulldogs have the second-best Supercoach list heading into 2020, according to a new-and-improved ratings formula from the AFL’s official number-crunchers.
EFA
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I couldn't work out how we would be rated the best team by Champion Data given we do not play a keep possession game.
Might have something to do with the last paragraph
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CHAMPION DATA LIST RATINGS 2020
1. Richmond
2. Western Bulldogs
3. Collingwood
4. GWS Giants
5. West Coast Eagles
6. North Melbourne
7. Geelong Cats
8. Port Adelaide
9. Essendon
10. Hawthorn
11. Brisbane Lions
12. Melbourne
13. St Kilda
14. Sydney Swans
15. Adelaide Crows
16. Carlton
17. Fremantle
18. Gold Coast Suns
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/teams/port-adelaide/port-adelaide-has-the-eighth-best-list-entering-2020-according-to-champion-data/news-story/095d09fcc70217bf699453939f8304d1
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I couldn't work out how we would be rated the best team by Champion Data given we do not play a keep possession game.
Might have something to do with the last paragraph
The last 3 years we have stumped Champion Data. It was all about stats, but we changed that.
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Champion Data this time last year rated Melbourne and Adelaide as having the two best lists :o.
No wonder they have changed their formula ;D.
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Foxsports' 2020 club predictions - rise, hold or fall:
Rise: Carlton, Hawthorn, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs.
Hold: Brisbane, Collingwood, Fremantle, Gold Coast, GWS, Port Adelaide, Richmond, St Kilda, Sydney, West Coast.
Fall: Adelaide, Essendon, Geelong.
Dogs with the 2nd best list behind us.
Hawthorn rise into the top 4.
Essendon fall out of the Eight.
Finalists (no order): Tigers, Giants, Magpies, Eagles, Lions, Hawks, Bulldogs. Last spot between Geelong or North.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2020-predictions-rise-hold-or-fall-verdict-on-every-club-list/news-story/417421811ef71ddc9538a1d3be1e802c
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Who are the main 2020 premiership contenders?
Zero Hanger
22 January 2020
The AFL premiership window is wide open for several clubs, with many suitors holding a strong argument for why they will end 2020 in glory.
Richmond
The reigning premiers remain favourites to do it all again in 2020. After a dominant 2019 campaign, Damian Hardwick’s side will likely start right where they left off, featuring as the league’s most envied club.
Astonishingly, the Tigers just lost one of the best defenders of the 21st century in Alex Rance and are still likely to sit atop the podium come September this year. Richmond managed to claim the bragging rights last season with Rance sidelined for the whole season, so it’s looking just as difficult to see how they could possibly trip up in 2020.
If the superstar forward pair of Tom Lynch and Jack Riewoldt hadn’t been perfected in year one, then expect even more damage to opponents defences this season. The Tigers haven’t welcomed many big names this offseason – not that they need to – but expect Grand Final fan-favourite Marlion Pickett to be the clubs ‘recruit’ of the year.
Tigers fans will be licking their lips with 14 games being played at the MCG – add another few away wins and they already have one hand on a minor premiership. If the Tigers finish in the top two, then there’s no stopping what will be a walk into the Grand Final once again as this dynasty continues to blossom.
West Coast
All eyes are now back on the Eagles. Following their successful 2018 season, West Coast stuttered in their premiership defence, finishing outside the top four and damaging their back-to-back chances before September.
However, with key figures missing from their finals push and the addition of silky star onballer Tim Kelly from Geelong, the Eagles are the league’s best bet to halt the Tigers push for consecutive flags.
Adam Simpson and his side will be hopeful of starting the season on the right foot, with only two of their first nine matches coming against finals sides from last season in Geelong and Richmond.
The key for the Eagles’ premiership hopes is maintaining fitness. With Nic Naitanui and Josh Kennedy constantly under injury clouds, the West Coast medical team may hold one of the sides most important roles this year.
Expect the boys from out west to be right back up in contention this year, with convincing wins away from home hoping to end any fluctuation in form.
Collingwood
Agonisingly close. The Pies have faced the toughest battles mentally in the league across the last 24 months. The narrow defeat to West Coast in 2018 certainly left them emotionally torn, while the preliminary final defeat to Greater Western Sydney last year added salt to those wounds.
The list is strong, the coach is smart and the fans are fierce…so what’s stopping the Pies from winning their first flag in a decade? For Nathan Buckley, motivation shouldn’t be hard. The leaders and star power he has at his disposal should see his team reach the final four for the third year in a row.
Collingwood’s offseason was more focused on rebuilding and retention rather than acquisition. A youthful list that showed a promising future, with all players looking to have bought into what their coach is offering.
A full season from Jaidyn Stephenson, a fit and firing Jordan De Goey and a reinvigorated Darcy Moore could just be the connection that sparks this new movement. For all the latest footy betting odds click here.
Seven of the Pies’ last nine matches will be at the MCG, with the club hoping that by then they can mirror Richmond’s ability to turn the home of football into a fortress.
A strong finals campaign beckons for the Pies, their biggest test will be the mental fight.
Greater Western Sydney
The side with the most to prove. While they took one step further in 2019, the Giants were embarrassed on the league’s biggest day of the year. But perhaps they have plenty to learn from it.
Their Grand Final high was short-lived, with the Tigers running riot from the second quarter onwards, but the Giants may have gotten just enough of the taste to be hungry for more.
The ‘Ferrari’ that is the Giants playing list is now entering a new era with leadership changes and new challenges. While this growing group of star players has been diluted year after year, they have managed to hold onto a majority of skilled stars with room to improve.
For the 2020 season, the Giants will be eyeing off their round seven clash with the Tigers at the MCG. Not only would a victory over the flag favourites have that sweet taste of redemption, but would prove to many that there is no more need for this club to fear games at the venue. The Giants only have three opportunities to play at the ‘G, with the other two fixtures against The Demons and Hawks.
Expect a fiery start to the season for the Giants – with a number of tough opponents in their opening two months of footy – a good record early could spell success.
https://www.zerohanger.com/who-are-the-main-2020-premiership-contenders-37997/
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What a crock
As if a win in round 7 is redemption for a missed premiership
Flog
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Champion data is only good for SuperCoach. As a matter of fact I feel the legacy of some players have benefited greatly from being good for super coach. Exhibit a) Tom Rockliff . The cliche of the most important stat is the score line still holds true.
But it is fun seeing all the experts and “analysts” such as David king scratch their hands on how do you concede the centre clearances and still win a premiership?
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GWS? Seriously?
Bulldogs have got more chance that the Giants. Time and time again their game style and inability to handle pressure shows them up. And throw in they really struggled at the MCG (prelim against the Pies excepted) and the likelihood of them winning a Flag is very low
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David King’s top 8
Essendon dropping out and being replaced by Port Adelaide.
King added that West Coast, GWS, Richmond and Collingwood are “locks top play finals”.
1. West Coast
2. GWS
3. Richmond
4. Collingwood
5. Bulldogs
6. Brisbane
7. Port Adelaide
8. Geelong
(North Melbourne ninth and Hawthorn 10th)
SEN Breakfast co-host Sam Edmund also named his own top eight.
Sam Edmund’s top 8
1. West Coast
2. Richmond
3. Collingwood
4. GWS
5. Brisbane
6. Bulldogs
7. Geelong
8. Hawthorn
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2020/01/22/david-king-names-his-top-8-for-2020-with-one-big-bolter/
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What a crock
As if a win in round 7 is redemption for a missed premiership
Flog
They said the same thing about Adelaide in 2018 when they beat us in round 2. Well that win did them about as good as their camp and RFC theme song sing-along bus trip :snidegrin.
Kane Cornes had the Crows even premiership favourite this time last year because they would redeem a poor 2018 :stupid :rollin.
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I hope King is right about Ninth Melbourne :shh
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I hope King is right about Ninth Melbourne :shh
They’ll see that as a success
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I hope King is right about Ninth Melbourne :shh
They’ll see that as a success
Round 12 against us will be there annual 'Grand Final' ::).
At least we play them this year at the 'G for once.
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West coast and Pies the other contenders for me
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My predictions for the 2020 AFL season
Giacomo Bruno
theRoar.com.au
26 Jan 2020
Season 2020 is set to be the most competitive season in the AFL in recent years, and here is my season prediction for how things will pan out.
First – Richmond Tigers
No surprises here. The Tigers have been the benchmark of the AFL for the past three seasons and 2020 will be no different.
The team’s depth is as good as any in the AFL, and the team’s quality and unison on display is unmatched by any side in the competition.
If all things go right, the Tigers will finish the top of the ladder and be back-to-back premiers come end of the season.
Second – West Coast Eagles
Third – Collingwood Magpies
Fourth – Geelong Cats
Fifth – Western Bulldogs
Sixth – Brisbane Lions
Seventh – Hawthorn Hawks
Eighth – GWS Giants
https://www.theroar.com.au/2020/01/26/my-predictions-for-the-2020-afl-season/
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Richmond are the marginal early favourites to repeat
Zero Hanger
12 Feb 2020
On 28 September 2019, we witnessed only the second Grand Final in AFL or VFL history in which neither team finished in the top two places of the ladder.
The team who would leave with a silver medal, Greater Western Sydney finished sixth – 12 points adrift from league-leading Geelong. Richmond, on the other hand, finished third but on the same points as Geelong and the second-placed Brisbane Lions – placing lower on point percentage.
While this does mean that the titbit mentioned having only occurred twice in the league’s history is a little contentious, it also shows how close the AFL was last season. This season, it’s expected to be an even closer contest but, as is often the way, the reigning premiers are favoured at this stage.
Tigers stay the course
One of the more remarkable aspects of Richmond’s 2019 campaign was that they did it without Alex Rance, who they’ll be without this season as well following the fullback’s retirement. Nick Vlastuin, David Astbury, and Dylan Grimes stepped in to fill the void and did so admirably.
At some point over the offseason, the Tigers may have expected Rance to return and add even more quality to the newly crowned premiers, but the team did well enough to mostly just stay the course. The team just won the Grand Final, has undergone very few personnel changes and has plenty of young talents knocking on the door of the best 22.
Coming back with very much the same team that marginally missed out on the summit of the ladder and landed the trophy, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Tigers are the favourites to win it all again in 2020. In the Aussie Rules betting, Richmond stand as the 8/15 favourites. However, it’s a very closely contested field, with West Coast at 3/5, Collingwood at 6/5, and Greater Western Sydney at 6/5.
It speaks volumes of how exciting the 2020 AFL season is going to be, which team looks poised to be the main threat to Richmond’s throne?
Will all the noise bring them the trophy?
Without a shadow of a doubt, the West Coast Eagles made the most noise in the off-season. In a huge statement of intent to finally bring in the player who they’ve wanted for a couple of years, West Coast paid up to bring in Tim Kelly.
The Eagles took the biggest step forward by landing the biggest move of the trade period. Sure, they almost certainly overpaid, but bringing in Kelly might just prove to be the move that makes them premiers. They’re a better team now, and Kelly is a star, giving them very real title credentials.
Collingwood, who finished fourth last season, on the same points as West Coast, didn’t get much worse, but also didn’t get any better. The Magpies basically stayed the same while all of the teams around them improved.
GWS is one such fellow contender which had a strong offseason, bringing in ruckman Sam Jones to patch a major hole in the team. Last year’s finalists look to be coming back to try and go all the way this season but perhaps aren’t as strong as the likes of the Eagles or the Tigers.
The tight odds on the four leading contenders in the AFL for the 2020 season just shows how competitive the league is and how exciting it’ll be to see it unfold. As it stands, Richmond are the pick of the bunch, but there’s been plenty of movement beneath to foresee a team usurping the reigning premiers.
https://www.zerohanger.com/richmond-are-the-marginal-early-favourites-to-repeat-38432/
Terry Wallace believes that Geelong will remain a competitive finals team, but aren’t in the premiership mix.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2020/02/11/is-geelong-in-their-premiership-window/
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Meanwhile ...
Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley believes the Power can win the 2020 premiership
Port Adelaide hasn’t won a final since 2014, but Power coach Ken Hinkley believes his side can go all the way ...
"I love this club and I love the history of this club and this club's history is premierships," Hinkley said on Wednesday.
"So, that's what we're starting out to try and do. We're going to start this year wanting to win the premiership in our 150th year.
"We're going to do everything we can to do that. To do that, you have to qualify for finals, so look out, we're coming."
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/port-adelaide-coach-ken-hinkley-believes-the-power-can-win-the-2020-premiership-in-150th-anniversary-year/news-story/0a5df22a6320173933f0aa1a73485a83
:facepalm
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Meanwhile ...
Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley believes the Power can win the 2020 premiership
Port Adelaide hasn’t won a final since 2014, but Power coach Ken Hinkley believes his side can go all the way ...
"I love this club and I love the history of this club and this club's history is premierships," Hinkley said on Wednesday.
"So, that's what we're starting out to try and do. We're going to start this year wanting to win the premiership in our 150th year.
"We're going to do everything we can to do that. To do that, you have to qualify for finals, so look out, we're coming."
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/port-adelaide-coach-ken-hinkley-believes-the-power-can-win-the-2020-premiership-in-150th-anniversary-year/news-story/0a5df22a6320173933f0aa1a73485a83
:facepalm
Thanks Cyclops, I will have the Hinkley v Dimma thread ready for a bump when required
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No chance Kenny Boy try again in another decade or two.
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Ken will be the first coach sacked in 2020
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Gez people getting on eagles Kelly a great get ,but we seen a few signs last year few players got exposed.Massive loss to Rioli.
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How Collingwood could be Richmond’s “greatest challenge”
By Andrew Slevison
SEN
13 Feb 2020
Matt Rendell believes Collingwood is the club that provides the biggest threat to reigning premiers Richmond in 2020.
The Tigers boast a 4-2 record over the Magpies across the past three seasons but one of these two defeats was a forgettable 44-point preliminary final drubbing on a fateful night in 2018 when Mason Cox turned it on.
While Richmond has held aloft two of the last three premiership cups, Rendell feels a fully fit Collingwood side is the key to knocking off the competition’s benchmark outfit.
“We rolled Richmond in that preliminary final. It wasn’t necessarily just because of Cox,” the Magpies’ assistant recruiting manager said on SEN’s Dwayne’s World.
“But we really troubled them with the way we were playing against them. I know they were really worried about us last year.
“We beat them early in the year, I know they had a couple missing. Then they smashed us pretty easily later in the year when we had quite a few out.
“I’d just like to have a crack with them with our best team.
“(Darcy) Moore playing on (Tom) Lynch, maybe (Jeremy) Howe or (Jordan) Roughead playing on Jack Riewoldt. I think we’ve got the team that can beat them.
“I know that they see us as their greatest challenge.”
Rendell reiterated that a full arsenal of personnel at Collingwood’s disposal will undoubtedly put them in a much stronger position of once again presenting as a genuine flag threat.
“I reckon Collingwood’s improvement will come from getting a better run with injuries,” he added.
“Keeping players out on the ground like (Jordan) De Goey, who has missed a lot, you need Moore out there all the time, Howe, (Brayden) Maynard. Keeping your better players out there all the time with no soft tissue injuries.
“We ran into a bit of trouble last year. Whether we beat GWS in the preliminary final, whether De Goey would have played not, I doubt it. They went to great lengths to try and get him up in case we made it.
“Getting our best players on the ground is number one.”
The Pies will get to test themselves against the Tigers in the Marsh Community Series in Wangaratta next Sunday, March 1 before the two powerhouse clubs again lock horns in Round 2 of the season proper at the MCG on March 26.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2020/02/13/how-collingwood-could-be-richmonds-greatest-challenge/
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If my aunty had balls shed be my uncle. They gotta get to a grand final first then theyll do what they usually do and thats choke.
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Exactly we got 2 flags banked in 3 years they got a big fat 0 no point getting past us and not winning it.Please Rendell we fear you :lol how about they back up there big words.
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Cameron Mooney believes Melbourne can do the unthinkable and bounce back from a disastrous 2019 to end a 56-year premiership drought – the longest in the game.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/teams/geelong-cats/geelong-great-cameron-mooney-believes-melbourne-can-win-the-2020-premiership-after-nightmare-2019/news-story/3baa3d0179686a55bd7479998c46b2c2
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We'll root Melbourne just like we'll root every other club in 2020. The 2020 flag belongs to us.
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Melbournes midfield is pretty stacked and they could bounce back like we did after 2016. In saying that they lost Gawn and they are a bit one dimensional with trying to force stoppages and without Gawn I don’t think they’ll go deep in sept if they make the 8 at all
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Gawn will be ok for round 1
But regardless they can’t win if
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Alastair Lynch on SEN says it's between us, GWS, Eagles and Brisbane.
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Bold predictions for season 2020
ESPN
24 Feb 2020
Our AFL experts Niall Seewang, Jake Michaels, Matt Walsh and Jesse Robinson look into their crystal balls to predict the 2020 season.
Who will win the premiership?
NS: The Tigers will complete their dynasty era with another flag this year, despite worthy challengers in West Coast, Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs. Too many match-winners and a gameplan few clubs can counter.
JM: With the addition of Tim Kelly, plus a fit and firing Nic Naitanui, the Eagles will be even harder to beat in 2020. I'm picking them to win the minor premiership before going on to land their second flag in three years.
MW: I'm not normally one to advocate for back-to-back flags as it's so hard to do, but this Richmond side has the look of a dynasty about it. No Alex Rance was no worries last season, and by keeping the core together for another year, it'll be hard to stop the Tigers in 2020.
JR: The Giants fell spectacularly at the final hurdle in 2019 but enter 2020 with one of the best midfields in the AFL, the reigning Coleman medalist and a very strong draft crop. They overcame their preliminary final hoodoo last year and will learn a lot from their Grand Final defeat.
https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/28767181/premier-brownlow-medal-bold-predictions-season-2020
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First Hinkley and now Charlie Dixon.
“Why not? Why can’t we?”: Port Adelaide not shying away from premiership talk
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2020/02/24/why-not-why-cant-we-port-adelaide-not-shying-away-from-premiership-talk/
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First Hinkley and now Charlie Dixon.
“Why not? Why can’t we?”: Port Adelaide not shying away from premiership talk
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2020/02/24/why-not-why-cant-we-port-adelaide-not-shying-away-from-premiership-talk/
Coz there crap
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Their fans will be seething if they have another poor year. 50k of them, all us feral as our bunch used to be.
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Kane Cornes’ full top eight
1. West Coast .... premiers
2. GWS
3. Richmond
4. Western Bulldogs
5. Melbourne
6. Collingwood
7. Port Adelaide
8. Sydney
In: Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Sydney.
Out: Geelong, Brisbane, Essendon.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2020/02/27/kane-cornes-top-8-prediction-and-premiership-tip/
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We’ve had some pretty good success with finishing 3rd......
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Sydney lol
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Melbournes midfield is pretty stacked
Jack Viney agrees.... :shh
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Cornes had to put his beloved Port in there.
Sydney lol
Agree. Lucky to finish outside the bottom 4 this year IMO.
I know it's only a preseason game but GWS missing 6 of their best players and still flogging the Swans.
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Geelong is trying to copy us.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/more-news/luke-dahlhaus-opens-up-on-shaun-grigg-joining-the-cats-chris-scotts-relationship-with-players-and-his-offseason/news-story/80437124b51d6dc992547eee22a25d44
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Take a look through each club's 2020 premiership window
By Marc McGowan
afl.com.au
1 March 2020
YOU EITHER believe in premiership windows or you don't.
Whatever your belief, only two teams won on Grand Final day in the past decade when their average age was younger than 25 years – and just one of those averaged fewer than 100 games.
Luke Beveridge's Western Bulldogs of 2016 were an anomaly in every sense of the word, coming from seventh and winning four finals to claim a fairytale flag.
The average player in the Bulldogs' team was aged 24.4 years and had a meagre 82.1 matches' experience.
On the flipside, the numbers for seven of the past 10 premiers were north of 26 years and 120 games per footballer.
SEASON CLUB AGE MATCHES
2010 Collingwood 24.2 101.2
2011 Geelong 27.3 145.8
2012 Sydney 26.5 131.4
2013 Hawthorn 26.8 139.5
2014 Hawthorn 26.8 137.5
2015 Hawthorn 27.8 166.8
2016 W.Bulldogs 24.4 82.1
2017 Richmond 25.1 104.1
2018 West Coast 26.3 120.8
2019 Richmond 26.5 125.6
Crystal-ball gazing ahead of each season is a largely impossible task but history at least provides a solid platform to predict what could happen.
AFL.com.au has selected a mock 'best 25' for each club – not for round one but factoring in all players who aren't already out for the season – to work out where they are placed in this regard.
The age and experience for those players at every team, as of March 1 this year, were then divided by 25 to reveal their side's numbers.
Where this is flawed is the 'best 25' process is subjective and each individual will have a different view, against the objectiveness of the statistics, but it at least provides a gauge.
Interestingly, only Geelong, Hawthorn and West Coast clear both the 26 and 120 bars at this stage, with Collingwood and Richmond just shy.
Those two clubs should reach the criteria by Grand Final day, with 23 rounds and finals spread across seven months still to go.
For example, the respective numbers for the Tigers' round one team last year were 25.9 and 111.2 and their Grand Final side, as above, was 26.5 and 125.6.
AFL.COM.AU'S BEST 25 FOR EACH TEAM
CLUB AGE MATCHES
Adelaide 24.6 88.2
Brisbane 25.1 96.6
Carlton 25.4 106.7
Collingwood 25.9 113.1
Essendon 25.1 96.2
Fremantle 24.4 86.3
Geelong 26.2 127.4
Gold Coast 23.5 70.5
GWS Giants 25.0 101.8
Hawthorn 27.0 133.2
Melbourne 25.1 95.3
North Melb. 25.6 103.4
Port Adelaide 25.2 108.8
Richmond 25.6 110.7
St Kilda 24.9 94.2
Sydney 24.6 91.4
West Coast 26.5 130.0
W.Bulldogs 25.0 90.8
The same projection is much harder but somewhat possible when trying to figure out which teams will emerge as this year's finalists.
Geelong, Brisbane, Richmond, Collingwood, West Coast, Greater Western Sydney, Western Bulldogs and Essendon made the top eight in 2019.
The numbers for their round one side last year were: Cats (25.6/101.5), Lions (25.1/92.5), Tigers (25.9/111.2), Magpies (26/107.5), Eagles (25.2/93.3), Giants (25.7/89.4), Bulldogs (24.3/71.7) and Bombers (25.7/85.2).
2019 Toyota AFL Grand Final between Richmond and GWS at the MCG
Beveridge's Dogs are again the exception, while Adelaide, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide and Sydney missed out despite fielding sides older than 25 on average in their season-openers.
Conversely, the other bottom-10 clubs last year – Carlton, Fremantle, Gold Coast, Melbourne and St Kilda – all fielded teams younger than 25 on average in round one.
Nothing is certain but, on this measure, the Crows, Dockers, Saints, Suns and Swans might face an uphill battle to qualify for September.
Then again, remember the Bulldogs.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/379504/take-a-look-through-each-club-s-2020-premiership-window
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2020 AFL Premiership
Richmond $5.00
West Coast $6.00
Collingwood $8.00
GWS $9.00
Brisbane $10
W.Bulldogs $11
Geelong $12
Hawthorn $15
Melbourne $26
Essendon $29
St Kilda $29
North Melb. $34
Port Adel. $34
Adelaide $41
Sydney $41
Carlton $51
Fremantle $51
Gold Coast $251
https://www.bettingpro.com.au/afl-premiership-betting-odds
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Gws should be up with us $9 ::)
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Richmond are the most popular pick to go back-to-back with seven of our 19 tipsters picking them to win the flag, but 10 believe the cup could be headed interstate with West Coast (6) and GWS (4) popular.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/afl-crystal-ball-news-corp-footy-experts-make-their-predictions-ahead-of-the-2020-season/news-story/47ec212538ef56668590435d7e3f0972
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Five clubs can win the premiership in 2020: Lloyd
By SEN
3 March 2020
Matthew Lloyd believes five clubs can win the premiership in 2020.
Lloyd predicts Richmond and GWS, last year’s Grand Finalists, to vie for the flag once again.
West Coast, Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs are the Essendon great’s other premiership fancies.
Despite finishing second last year, Lloyd is reluctant to mention Brisbane in the premiership conversation.
“The Giants can (win the premiership). They’ll be better for the experience,” Lloyd told Sportsday on Monday night.
“Richmond can go again. I think that the West Coast Eagles can win it. The Western Bulldogs can win it. And Collingwood.
“I won’t say Brisbane at this stage.”
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2020/03/03/five-clubs-can-win-the-premiership-in-2020-lloyd/
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Every AFL club’s big burning question
March 4, 2020
Ben Waterworth
FOX SPORTS
RICHMOND
Burning question: Can any team usurp the Tigers?
If the Tigers bring the same selfless attitude, hunger, class, star-studded power and ridiculously high standards they showed in 2019, it’s genuinely hard to see any of the 17 other teams leapfrogging them. We know they have the drive to go to the well again, we know they can win big games without big stars (for example, Jack Riewoldt and Alex Rance last year) and we know they still have a reasonably young list. On probability alone, it’s hard to tip any other team for the flag other than Richmond, especially considering its players have barely had any injury problems over the summer. At this stage, if the Tigers don’t win the premiership, it’ll more likely be at their own doing, rather than a rival club rising to a level higher than Richmond’s.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2020-preview-predictions-fox-footy-podcast-every-club-burning-question-trade-news/news-story/a8a92ca31c8172587b46c681a7737e6d
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Five teams can win the flag – but don’t expect a Blues surge
March 6, 2020
Ben Waterworth
FOX SPORTS
Essendon champion Matthew Lloyd and Brownlow Medallist Gerard Healy have named the five clubs they believe can win the flag this AFL season.
With a fortnight remaining until Round 1, Richmond remains the premiership favourites, according to Sportsbet, with West Coast, Collingwood and the Giants not far behind in the flag market.
Geelong and Brisbane, who finished first and second respectively on the ladder last year, are equal-fifth favourites with the bookies. But Lloyd “won’t say Brisbane (is a flag chance) at this stage”.
Speaking on 3AW’s Sportsday, Lloyd nominated the top-four teams on the Sportsbet flag market, as well as the Western Bulldogs — a team many AFL pundits believe can push for a top-four spot in 2020.
“The Giants can (win the premiership). They’ll be better for the experience,” Lloyd told 3AW’s Sportsday.
“Richmond can go there again.
“I think that the West Coast Eagles can win it. I’d say The Western Bulldogs can win it … and Collingwood.”
Healy added: “That’d be the five I’d have too … but the great thing about footy is there’ll be somebody else who does emerge.”
Meanwhile, AFL legend Leigh Matthews says he can’t see Carlton pushing for the top eight in 2020.
Under interim coach turned full-time coach David Teague, the Blues generated ample momentum late in 2019, winning six of their final 11 games of the season.
But Matthews said the Blues were more likely to feature in the bottom four on the ladder than the top eight this season.
“I think they can book their September holiday … I don't think they'll finish top half and play finals,” Matthews told Sportsday.
“They look like they're on the improve … if you can get Matthew Kreuzer on the field almost the whole season – Charlie Curnow, it’s obviously uncertain how much he's going to play – but if they get their best list on the field, I think there's a greater evenness in the competition there. (But) I don’t think they’re going to play finals, in my view.
“Five of the last seven they won were Freo, Swans, Suns, Crows and St Kilda, who all weren’t going that good in the last bit of the year.”
However Matthews said the Blues had still “removed themselves from being the bottom of the ladder chopping block”
“Sometimes that's the first step,” he said.
“(Sam) Docherty back from injury’s going to help a lot … I’m not sure whether Eddie (Betts) is at the stage of his career where he hasn’t got a lot left, (Jack) Martin should be helpful.
“(But) I reckon they’re closer to bottom four than finals.”
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2020-predictions-who-can-win-the-flag-premiership-odds-carlton-finals-chances-matthew-lloyd-leigh-matthews/news-story/8ca110482a1a5a0d521e1cdf9e4377d5
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For me a fit docherty will help Carlton sky rocket into bottom 4 of top 8 kinda like what Essendon did a couple of years back. But then they will get absolutely pumped in week 1 of finals
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Think the AFL is a two-horse race? Look down the ladder and think again
Glenn Valencich
7News
8 March 2020
On the face of it an AFL season with the last two premiers heading in as favourites might feel at least a little ho-hum.
Richmond, with 21 of last year’s premiership players returning, are deservedly at the top of the pile.
Nipping at their heels are the Eagles following the addition of Tim Kelly and Nic Naitanui’s first solid pre-season in years.
Yet first thoughts haven’t deceived former Essendon captain Jobe Watson, the newest addition to Channel 7’s Thursday Night Football team for the 2020 season.
Last year West Coast were the ‘worst’ of five teams with at least 15 wins, while the Giants put a mixed 13-win campaign behind them to reach the grand final.
Reviving memories of the tightly fought 2016 race that saw even the seventh-placed Bulldogs claim 15 wins, Watson expects the Eagles and Tigers to have a number of challengers.
“The competition is so evenly matched and obviously Richmond were the standout and deserved the success that they got last year,” he told 7NEWS.com.au.
“But I think that if you look down the ladder you can make a case for a lot of teams.
“I think that that’s the beauty of the season this year.”
The stark contrast in style - particularly through the midfield - between the Tigers and West Coast is enough to prove his point.
Richmond have eschewed true contested and clearance footy for high-handball, fast-paced movement that overwhelms the opposition, while the Eagles go their own way and slice teams apart.
“Each group has its own idiosyncrasies based off the players that they have,” Watson said.
“They’ve got to be able to devise tactics to suit the styles and the strengths of those players. You see what Richmond have done (with leg speed), other teams have got their own different styles.
“I think that’s one of the most enjoyable things. That’s what people really enjoy, seeing how one style against another can combat it.
“That’ll be the interesting part of the season and it’s going to be such a close year with so many teams that have a real chance of being successful.”
While recent runners-up GWS and Collingwood remain obvious contenders alongside Geelong and surprise packets Brisbane and the Dogs, Watson is watching two hopefuls with interest.
Tom Mitchell’s return to the fold at Hawthorn could reveal the benefits of his year out in the form of a well-rounded group with teammates who rediscovered what it meant to fend for themselves.
And Watson expects the rejuvenation of Essendon’s coaching group - with 2021 senior coach Ben Rutten stepping up alongside new assistant coach Blake Caracella - to overcome any concerns about the state of their list.
The Bombers are still dealing with a number of recovering or injured players, with captain Dyson Heppell’s fitness levels unclear and Joe Daniher without a return date.
Essendon, seeking improvement after a 55-point loss to West Coast in last year’s elimination final, edged the Eagles in a pre-season game last week behind 11 different goalkickers.
“I think the way in which Blake, who has come across (from the Tigers), and Ben, who’s been in that Richmond system, they’re really trying to take what they learned from there and implement it into their own style at Essendon,” Watson said.
“They (nearly) kicked 100 points in their first game and they want to continue that. I think the balance of defence and attack will be interesting to see.
“Whether or not they are able to score powerfully with different types of personnel and find goals in different ways, rather than just having one or two avenues.”
https://7news.com.au/sport/afl/think-the-flag-is-a-two-horse-race-jobe-watson-says-look-down-the-ladder-and-think-again-c-734228
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Historical clues to predicting AFL placements in 2020 (Part 1)
Gordon P Smith
theRoar.com.au
8 March 2020
3. Richmond Tigers
Premiers: 16-6, 113.7 per cent
Based on that third place alone Richmond has a great chance of returning to finals – slightly better than the team in second, oddly enough. But the five teams in this modern finals era who won the AFL title from third all made the top four the following year, although none of the five repeated as premiers: the Tigers themselves two years ago finished first (only to be upset by Mason Cox in the preliminary final), Hawthorn in 2015 finished third the next year, Brisbane concluded their trinity of titles from the third spot in 2003 with the second-place return to the grand final in 2004 (a loss to the Power), and both of Sydney’s 21st-century championships came from third place, and ironically both were followed with fourth-place finishes.
If you’re a Tiger-hater and you’re actively looking for evidence that supports your fervent desire to see Richmond return to its formerly traditional ninth-place position, there is this ray of hope for you to cling to. In the last 50 years there have been four occasions when three or more teams tied for the top of the ladder on wins and losses. Of course those ties were separated by percentage for finals seeding. Richmond was third last year, tied with Geelong and Brisbane with 16 wins and six losses. The other three such bronze medalists in three-ways were the 2016 Hawks, the 2014 Cats and the 1992 Magpies.
None of them made finals the next season. Hawthorn was 12th, Geelong tenth and Collingwood eighth when only six clubs made September. So you’ve got that going for you, which is nice.
All other things being equal in 2020
But on the evidence as well as our collective gut feelings about the strength of Damien Hardwick’s team coming into this season, with all other things being equal, write Richmond’s name in the double chance part of your finals bracket right now. In pen. But if none of those similar teams took first, expect these Tigers to be second going into September instead.
Read more including about Geelong, Brisbane & Collingwood here: https://www.theroar.com.au/2020/03/08/historical-clues-to-predicting-afl-placements-in-2020-part-1/
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AFL Captains predictions
By Riley Beveridge
afl.com.au
10 March 2020
Which seven other clubs do you think can make this year's top eight?
17 – West Coast, Richmond, GWS Giants
16 – Collingwood
15 – Brisbane
13 – Western Bulldogs
10 – Port Adelaide
8 – Geelong
5 – Melbourne
3 – St Kilda
2 – Hawthorn
1 – Essendon, North Melbourne, Sydney
Which other club is most likely to reach the Grand Final?
7 – GWS Giants
5 – West Coast
4 – Richmond
2 – Collingwood
Who do you think will win the 2020 Brownlow Medal?
5 – Patrick Cripps (Carlton), 4 – Lachie Neale (Brisbane), 3 – Nat Fyfe (Fremantle), 2 – Dustin Martin (Richmond), Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs), 1 – Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong), Stephen Coniglio (GWS Giants)
Who do you think will win the 2020 Coleman Medal?
6 – Tom Lynch (Richmond), 5 – Jeremy Cameron (GWS Giants), 3 – Josh Kennedy (West Coast), 1 – Charlie Cameron (Brisbane), Ben Brown (North Melbourne), Bayley Fritsch (Melbourne), Lance Franklin (Sydney)
https://www.afl.com.au/news/384191/captains-predict-four-clubs-snubbed-for-finals-brownlow-tips-more
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Brereton’s top eight:
1. West Coast
2. Richmond
3. GWS
4. Collingwood
5. Port Adelaide
6. Western Bulldogs
7. Brisbane
8. Geelong
“Logic would suggest Richmond, but it’s just so hard to win two in a row albeit they’re very difficult to win three out of four,” Brereton told SEN SA’s Kymbo and the Rooch.
“I’ll say West Coast to beat Richmond.”
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2020/03/10/dermott-breretons-top-8-and-premiership-predictions-for-2020/
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Ch 7 commentators say the 2020 Grand Final will see...
Cameron Ling: Richmond def. West Coast
Brian Taylor: Richmond def. West Coast
Leigh Matthews: West Coast def. Richmond
Wayne Carey: West Coast def. Richmond
Abbey Holmes: West Coast def. Richmond
Basil Zempilas: West Coast def. Richmond
Gilbert McAdam: West Coast def. GWS
Daisy Pearce: West Coast def. GWS
James Brayshaw: West Coast def. Geelong
Jimmy Bartel: GWS def. Richmond
Jobe Watson: GWS def. Collingwood
Matthew Richardson: GWS def. West Coast
Luke Hodge: Collingwood def. Richmond
Campbell Brown: Western Bulldogs def. West Coast
https://7news.com.au/sport/afl/channel-7-experts-predict-2020-afl-grand-finalists-brownlow-and-coleman-winners-c-737717
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As for the premiership, Dal Santo says the Tigers will go back to back, defeating West Coast in the Grand Final.
See his top eight below.
1. Richmond
2. West Coast
3. Brisbane
4. Western Bulldogs
5. GWS
6. Collingwood
7. Geelong
8. Port Adelaide
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2020/03/11/nick-dal-santos-top-8-and-premiership-predictions-for-2020/
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(https://nnimgt-a.akamaihd.net/transform/v1/crop/frm/34dXacDR8RguBkyLHxYXLhN/b62d9634-d265-4d25-83fa-6838b24913ff.jpg/r0_0_2362_1417_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6673661/where-is-your-afl-team-going-to-finish-this-year-rohan-connolly-writes-for-the-courier/
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Live AFL predictions chat: Every club ranked 1-18 — and signs aren’t good for Essendon
March 12, 2020
Tom Morris
FOX SPORTS
Let’s make one thing clear, this is a thankless task.
But to fuel some debate it never hurts to have a crack at a predicted ladder on the eve of the home and away season.
On this day last year I wrote that Melbourne would finish third and the Western Bulldogs 17th. A quick google search would make these projections look a touch foolish.
But that’s OK, because one supporter’s reality is another’s bulldust.
For what it’s worth, I’m tipping GWS to win the premiership, Patrick Cripps to take home the Brownlow Medal, and Hawthorn to be the big improvers.
Enjoy the 2020 season and be kind with your feedback (as always!).
PREDICTED LADDER
1. GWS GIANTS
GWS boasts too much talent to not challenge again. They have a core group of players which are mature enough to process last year’s Grand Final result, but young enough to right those wrongs in 2020. I’m tipping Stephen Coniglio to enjoy a career-best season and Jeremy Cameron to win the Coleman Medal. The Giants are primed.
2. WEST COAST EAGLES
A fully fit Nic Naitanui and Tim Kelly operating in the same midfield is a scary prospect and can’t be ignored. Optus Stadium will be a fortress again. I can’t see the Eagles falling short of a preliminary final and from there anything can happen.
3. RICHMOND
Everything is set up beautifully for the Tigers again in 2020: A healthy list, winning culture and a definite hunger to go back-to-back. Grand Final day last year was not an accurate reflection of how far in front of the pack the Tigers were during the season, but they will be supremely hard to beat again this year if they bring the same manic pressure. Especially at the MCG.
4. HAWTHORN
Alastair Clarkson-coached teams don’t miss finals two years in a row too often. I love Hawthorn’s form line, which saw them win six of their last eight games in 2019 and narrowly miss finals. By the end of the season they were playing like a top four side. They score well from turnovers and will only improve with Tom Mitchell and Jon Patton added to the mix. I’m bullish about the Hawks, really bullish.
5. COLLINGWOOD
Collingwood will surely will enough games on talent alone, but they will be hoping to avoid the mid-season ‘slump’ that saw them drop from 8-2 to 15-7 their 2019 campaign. In truth, it was only a ‘slump’ because of the high bar they set themselves initially. But it halted any momentum they had. The Pies really should have beaten GWS at the MCG in the preliminary final and I expect them to be around the mark again this year.
6. WESTERN BULLDOGS
It’s hard not to be enthusiastic about the Western Bulldogs. Champion Data compares their trajectory from the 2016 flag as similar to Hawthorn’s after 2008, and I don’t disagree. Their ball movement is glorious at its best, but can they sustain it when it matters? The Dogs are still young but should challenge.
7. BRISBANE
The Lions are a good side, but they have a more difficult fixture in 2020 than they did when they finished second in 2019 which will make things harder. I love the way they play and Chris Fagan is the perfect coach for them, but success is rarely linear. I predict Brisbane to challenge for a flag in due course, but this year will be a timely leveller for them.
8. PORT ADELAIDE
I’ve loved Ken Hinkley’s transparent messaging pre-season. Laying it on the line is refreshing and honest. It’s effectively finals or bust for the coach, who has ample talent at his disposal but must utilise it more effectively in 2020. Port are great at taking territory but must be more efficient with their skills. Nobody wants to play the Power when they are on.
9. GEELONG
10. ST KILDA
11. MELBOURNE
12. NORTH MELBOURNE
13. CARLTON
14. SYDNEY SWANS
15. ESSENDON
16. FREMANTLE
17. ADELAIDE
18. GOLD COAST SUNS
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2020-predictions-predicted-ladder-tom-morris-blog-essendon-slide-hawthorn-top-four/news-story/2e10eaa711e8c60baba72886c64ba81a
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Happy with a Tigers flag. Ill be happier with a 2020 tigers flag and Geelong and Norf missing the eight.
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Matthew Richardson names his top eight and big slider for 2020
By SEN
12 March 2020
Richmond great Matthew Richardson has predicted Geelong to miss the finals in 2020.
The Cats were minor premiers in 2019 but fell at the preliminary final hurdle to Richmond.
Along with Geelong, Richardson also expects Essendon to fall out of the eight with Melbourne and Port Adelaide their replacements.
“I think the Cats will miss the eight. So that’s a big slide,” he told Sportsday.
“I think Port came come back into the eight and from what I’ve seen of Melbourne over the summer, I’ve got a little bit of confidence back in them.”
Richardson expects the Tigers, GWS, West Coast and the Western Bulldogs to finish in the top four.
He is especially bullish about the Giants having seen them during the Marsh Series.
"They got towelled up in a Grand Final and I just wanted to see how they look – they look super hungry," Richardson said.
I think the Giants will be a top two team this year and I think they can go really close (to winning the premiership)."
Matthew Richardson’s top eight for the 2020 season
GWS
West Coast
Richmond
Western Bulldogs
Collingwood
Melbourne
Brisbane
Port Adelaide
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2020/03/11/matthew-richardson-names-his-top-eight-and-big-slider-for-2020/
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Former Fremantle midfielder Paul Hasleby has made his premiership prediction for the 2020 season.
Hasleby thinks Richmond and GWS will play off in the Grand Final once again with the Tigers to claim back-to-back flags for the first time since 1974.
“I think Richmond will do it again. They’ve had very minimal surgeries over the off-season,” Hasleby told SEN SA’s Kymbo and The Rooch.
“They haven’t performed that well in some of these pre-season games, but they are such a professional outfit.
“If you are a good team you’ve got that luxury of knowing that you’ll get it right towards the backend (of the year).
“I’ve got them beating their opponent last year – the GWS Giants.”
The ex-Docker also named his top eight with St Kilda and Melbourne to break in at the expense of Geelong and Essendon.
Paul Hasleby’s top eight for 2020
Richmond
GWS
Brisbane
Western Bulldogs
West Coast
Collingwood
Melbourne
St Kilda
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2020/03/12/paul-haslebys-top-eight-and-2020-premiership-tip/
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Malcolm Blight, a two-time premiership player with North Melbourne and dual premiership coach at Adelaide, thinks Richmond will win a third flag in four years and go back-to-back for the first time since 1974.
“It’s their time in the sun after all that time away, you can’t see many flaws,” Blight told SEN SA’s Kymbo and The Rooch.
The Tigers, West Coast, last year’s runners up GWS and Collingwood make up Blight’s top four.
He also predicted former club the Crows to squeeze into the top eight with 11 wins.
Malcolm Blight’s 2020 top eight:
Richmond (17 wins)
West Coast (15 wins)
GWS (15 wins)
Collingwood (15 wins)
Brisbane (14 wins)
Western Bulldogs (13 wins)
Geelong (13 wins)
Adelaide (11 wins)
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2020/03/14/malcolm-blights-2020-flag-and-top-eight-predictions/
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Meta-predictions for the 2020 AFL season
Gordon P Smith
theRoar.com.au
15 March 2020
Every season I gather as many disparate and sometimes wildly diverse predictions as I can find in cyberspace and synthesize them together into one “meta-prediction”.
Let’s look at the aggregate position predictions for this season:
First place: Richmond Tigers (average placement 1.46)
Not hard to believe that the majority of us put the reigning premiers in the top spot for 2020 – if it weren’t for foreign interference in the 2018 prelim final, they might be the three-time defending champs. Oddly, there are very few naysayers, but those that do have the Tigers well off the pace – as low as sixth and averaging below fourth!
Second place: Collingwood Magpies (average placement 3.69)
It’s 2020 or bust the way the Pies’ roster is structured, and that’s the way the pundits are seeing it. While I have Collingwood in fifth, that’s almost as low as they’re selected across the board (there were two sixths and a seventh that I saw), and the vast majority of pundits assume a top-three finish.
Third place: West Coast Eagles (average placement 3.56)
Neck-and-neck for the number two spot with the team that edged them out for the crucial double chance last season, the Eagles are assumed to be stronger with Tim Kelly wearing a different hue of blue in two-zeroo. Uh – “ze-roh” (I have them second).
Fourth place: Geelong Cats (average placement 5.13)
Rarely does the minor premier have so many doubters coming into the next season, but the way the Cats ended 2019, coupled with their eighth-place finish the year before, the loss of Tim Kelly and the ageing of Joel Selwood and Gary Ablett made some pundits do so. I’m one of those, putting them a hair above Port in the eighth position.
Fifth place: GWS Giants (average placement 5.33)
Most people are making the twin assumptions that so much talent coupled with the desire to rectify the disappointment of their performance in last year’s GF will keep the Giants in the upper echelons of the league. I have them as a close third to the Eagles, with WC’s home field and MCG advantages the difference.
Sixth place: Brisbane Lions (average placement 5.42)
The same situation Geelong has applies to Brisbane for different reasons. While their jump was even more dramatic than Geelong’s, it was a long time coming, and while its size and suddenness caught most off guard, the jump itself didn’t. Age and maturity both improve in 2020, and their straight-sets exit should be considered part of their learning curve rather than a strike against them. I picked them fourth.
Seventh place: Western Bulldogs (average placement 5.60)
The Dogs are wedged close behind the two cats, with the difference being the occasional pundit nudging them out of finals, while Geelong and Brisbane are with almost no exception top eight. But almost everyone has these first seven clubs in some order, solidly competing for finals. I have the sons of the west in sixth, on Bont’s back.
Eighth place: Hawthorn Hawks (average placement 7.79)
If you expected a logjam at this critical spot, be disappointed. Hawthorn is the universal choice to move into finals – the only “new” team compared with the 2019 ladder, as discussed earlier. The surprise is how few dissenters there are: about 80 per cent have them making finals in 2020, with Tom Mitchell back at midfield vacuum this year. Seventh on my list.
Read more & the full article here:https://www.theroar.com.au/2020/03/15/meta-predictions-for-the-2020-afl-season/
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Malthouse tips six-team AFL flag race
Coaching legend Mick Malthouse says only half a dozen teams are capable of winning the AFL premiership in the coronavirus-hit 2020 season.
Malthouse said reigning premiers Richmond, beaten grand finalists Greater Wester Sydney, West Coast and Collingwood were the most serious flag contenders.
He believed Brisbane and Hawthorn – the latter boosted by the return of 2018 Brownlow Medal winner Tom Mitchell from injury – could also give the premiership a shake.
"It's going to be the bigger, stronger and more mature sides that will come out the other end," Malthouse said on The Sunday Footy Show.
"I think there's only five or six sides that can win the premiership this year and each one of them have got that really good blend of senior players.
"They've got that explosive type of player ... that type of player that can go in and make a habit of winning the ball in the middle but also causing some damage in the forward line."
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/malthouse-tips-six-team-afl-flag-race-20200531-p54y3x.html
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The two teams Watson feels should be added to premiership mix
By Nic Negrepontis
SEN
1 June 2020
Former Essendon captain Tim Watson believes Geelong and Port Adelaide should be among the teams people consider when talking about who can win the premiership in 2020.
Mick Malthouse on The Sunday Footy Show named GWS, Richmond, Brisbane, Collingwood, West Coast and Hawthorn as his teams that can win it, with the Giants being his tip.
Watson however believes the Cats must be in the mix, while Port is his “smokie”.
“Geelong should be in there (among the teams that can win the flag),” he told SEN Breakfast.
“There’s two teams that should be in there and Port Adelaide is the other team I think should be in there too.
“Why is it that everyone feels it’s compulsory to talk Geelong down or disregard Geelong in any way?
“They’ve been unbelievable, the fact that they’ve stayed around the mark.
“Even last year they played against the best team in the competition (Richmond) and gave a great account of themselves in that Preliminary Final.”
SEN Breakfast co-host Garry Lyon has previously stated his concern with Geelong is their ability to score in big games.
“I still have this concern about their (Geelong’s) capacity to kick a score that’s going to win them big finals,” Lyon said last week.
“In the finals they kicked nine goals when they lost (to Richmond), they beat West Coast by kicking 13 and they lost to Collingwood and kicked only seven.
“In their losing finals at the MCG they kicked seven and nine, that’s my concern.”
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2020/05/31/the-two-teams-watson-feels-should-be-added-to-premiership-mix/
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Fox Footy Jury: Which teams are best placed to challenge for the 2020 premiership?
In an unprecedented season, which clubs are best placed to challenge for what could be one of the great premierships? We asked three Fox Footy experts for their verdicts.
The countdown is on to the AFL season restart and teams are ramping up their training and preparations.
But in what will be an unprecedented season, which clubs are best placed to challenge for what could be one of the great premierships of all time?
We asked three Fox Footy experts: Which teams will benefit most from the delayed, shortened and unique 2020 season?
JORDAN LEWIS
“If I was still a player, I would like to be surrounded by experience. So I think the more mature teams could possibly gain an advantage because it’s been a shortened preparation. I don’t think it changes my prediction. I still think Richmond, West Coast and GWS are probably the sides that will be there in the end. Good leadership, good coaches who are pretty realistic about it all will be key. I just think that sides with experience can cope better with adversity compared to sides who haven’t been through such experiences before. I know this is a different experience, but certainly the same types of traits and experiences can relate.”
ALASTAIR LYNCH
“With the way it’s going to start and the first month as well, I think Brisbane have got a huge advantage. They lost their first match and they were disappointing so they went into the break knowing that they’ve got to be a lot better which might have helped their players in the break. Now they’ve got the next four games at the Gabba. That’s a big bonus for them to potentially set up a season. The other team is West Coast. I think they have a great opportunity as well, if they’re only coming to Queensland for four weeks. They’re an experienced team, they’re well-drilled, they know their systems so the fact that they haven’t had contact with teammates and coaches face-to-face won’t hurt them as much. Those well-drilled, more mature sides that have been around the mark for a while are probably going to be most advantaged and that’s sides like West Coast, Collingwood, and Geelong.”
NICK DAL SANTO
“West Coast are the ones that have been put out at this stage, having to set up on the other side of the country. But I still think with their maturity, their experience, their ability to travel as much as they do anyway, I don’t see them as being a huge detrimental effect on them. Geelong – who now get more home games – Greater Western Sydney and Richmond are still the best teams and any advantage or disadvantage that might have come from more teams in a hub or playing every four or five days, I think that’s all been washed away now. We’re just back to an honest competition as much as we can — aside from West Coast, Fremantle, Adelaide and Port Adelaide being in a hub for at least a month.”
https://thewest.com.au/sport/afl/fox-footy-jury-which-teams-are-best-placed-to-challenge-for-the-2020-premiership-ng-abd815cc02c0ef3519bdbaabc0fc12b6
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Really interesting to see what way this goes. I remember when the 6-6-6 rule came in and 'experts' were predicting us too fall away due to it and Melbourne to rise. Well that was some expert forecasting now wasn't it. I really can't see this benefiting any team more than others in terms of age demographic of the squad but where I can see the benefit occurring is in the fixture. In a normal season the top 6 teams need to play each other multiple times, where this season everyone will play each other once. This has to be a advantage to the stronger teams because they will not be automatically handicapped with harder games.
It also means teams will not spring up the ladder such as Brisbane did last year, Collingwood in 2018, us in 2017 and the Doggies in 2016. It also works the other way though too; Melbourne had a rapid rise based on an easy draw but was found out the year later, Doggies were the same and I suspect, Brisbane would have dropped back this year. Now performance will be better measured.
All of this equates to a strange, but another successful season for the Yellow and Black! :gotigers
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Speaking on AFL Tonight, Leigh Montagna put forward two teams he believes are best placed to potentially reach the top four, along with two teams he thinks could slump and potentially fall out of the top eight.
“I think the two teams that could jump up the ladder and potentially be a top four team and have a real crack at a flag, definitely Port Adelaide.
“The other one as a bit of a smokey, I’m really interested to see what the Kangaroos can deliver,” he said.
The 287-game Saint then went on to list the two teams he thought were at most risk of sliding down the ladder in 2020.
“Geelong for me are fascinating, there’s been a lot of talk about them now with all these games at home, they could easily finish in top two on the ladder and they could also slip out of the eight,” he said.
“There’s almost a feel of a little bit of the Chicago Bulls ‘last dance’ about them. How much has Ablett and Selwood, Harry Taylor, Hawkins et cetera got left in them?
“The other team is the Brisbane Lions. I think they could potentially slip a little bit from a terrific season last year.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/four-afl-clubs-are-set-for-a-change-of-fortune-in-2020-its-bad-news-for-this-mob/news-story/6bd8b95d4c2858f18583253ab815ca13
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Liam Pickering has named Collingwood as the team to beat ahead of the AFL’s season restart next Thursday night.
“I genuinely think Collingwood are the team to beat,” Pickering said on Off The Bench.
“I think they’ll win it, Giants, West Coast, Richmond and Hawthorn (are the contenders).
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2020/06/07/pickering-names-his-team-to-beat-in-2020/
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Port Adelaide midfielder Tom Rockliff is confident the Power can mix it with the competition’s best but admits the Tigers, Giants and Eagles will be difficult to beat.
“I think we’re positioned really well with our list demographic … we’ve got some really exciting kids plus older guys,” Rockliff told SEN’s The Captain’s Run.
“For the rest of the competition … Richmond has been the benchmark for a number of years now, they’re always super competitive. GWS the same. West Coast with Tim Kelly arriving and Nic Naitanui looks like he is back to full fitness as well.
“I think those three teams are going to be quite hard to be beat.”
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2020/06/07/the-three-clubs-that-will-be-hard-to-be-beat-when-season-restarts/
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THE FLAG FAVOURITE
Garry Lyon – Collingwood
“I’ve jumped off the Eagles. I had the Eagles, but I think they’ve been ‘hubbed’. I’ve jumped on the Maggies. (I was) very heavily (taken aback by Round 1). I’m supremely confident in the Magpies’ ability.
Nick Riewoldt – Richmond
“I’m sticking firm, I’ve been with this mob for a while. They’ve got a bankable style, they know their system and they’re not going to be affected by their inability to train because they’ve played a certain way for a number of years now and they’re not going to miss a beat.”
Jonathan Brown – GWS Giants
“Callan Ward and Zac Williams are going to be back in the side and Toby Greene’s just going to get stronger and stronger. They play three out of their first four at home.”
Gerard Healy – West Coast Eagles
“I’m going to stay with the Eagles, simply because while they’re giving to the hub now, they’re going to taketh later in the back of the season. They’re big winners out of the times reduced for quarters because Nic Naitanui goes from 60 per cent up to 70 per cent, which means do they play another ruckman? I think Tim Kelly coming back, Oscar Allen – they’ve got some organic growth to come through there and they’ve got a great midfield.”
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2020-predictions-fox-footy-on-the-couch-calls-flag-odds/news-story/4f62cae62f6ea854dc3a886be26fa0a2
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THE FLAG FAVOURITE
Garry Lyon – Collingwood
“I’ve jumped off the Eagles. I had the Eagles, but I think they’ve been ‘hubbed’. I’ve jumped on the Maggies. (I was) very heavily (taken aback by Round 1). I’m supremely confident in the Magpies’ ability.
Nick Riewoldt – Richmond
“I’m sticking firm, I’ve been with this mob for a while. They’ve got a bankable style, they know their system and they’re not going to be affected by their inability to train because they’ve played a certain way for a number of years now and they’re not going to miss a beat.”
Jonathan Brown – GWS Giants
“Callan Ward and Zac Williams are going to be back in the side and Toby Greene’s just going to get stronger and stronger. They play three out of their first four at home.”
Gerard Healy – West Coast Eagles
“I’m going to stay with the Eagles, simply because while they’re giving to the hub now, they’re going to taketh later in the back of the season. They’re big winners out of the times reduced for quarters because Nic Naitanui goes from 60 per cent up to 70 per cent, which means do they play another ruckman? I think Tim Kelly coming back, Oscar Allen – they’ve got some organic growth to come through there and they’ve got a great midfield.”
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2020-predictions-fox-footy-on-the-couch-calls-flag-odds/news-story/4f62cae62f6ea854dc3a886be26fa0a2
Jason Dunstall - Richmond
The Tigers are my tip for premiers. They have a proven game style. No other team in the competition is as professional or as disciplined as Richmond. They are prepared to sacrifice each other, and have a full and fit list heading into the AFL season restart.
David King - West Coast Eagles
“They haven’t given me a reason to jump off yet.”
Bob Murphy - Richmond
“The Tigers will probably win it again because they’re very good and their leaders have clocked football.”
Cameron Mooney – Richmond
“I did pick Melbourne originally, with a little bit of tongue in cheek, but having this time off … it’s the mature groups that really going to handle the period off so well. And from all reports Richmond have just rolled back in and are just flying.
“That’s what great, mature teams do. They don’t take a week for training to get going, they just walk in and go bang. They’ve been away for 10 weeks, they’ve done what they’ve needed to do, they come in and go whack.
“Melbourne, I’m just not sure they’ve got that maturity, so that’s why I think maybe not now for the Dees but yes now for the Tigers. They could roll back in, go bang, bang, bang and win the first six and they’re away.”
Brad Johnson – GWS Giants
“My opinion 100 per cent hasn’t changed since February. The thing is with the Giants is they’re a 100-point team. If they can go 100 and keep the opposition to 70 points consistently, look out.
“That’s the perfect year in terms of scores for and against – and they achieved that in Round 1. They’re in a good spot.”
Leigh Montagna – GWS Giants
“There’s simply no reason to jump off the GWS Giants. They’ve already been through so much adversity and they’re so mentally tough, so the recent shutdown won’t bother them.
“They’ve played a lot of footy together as a group, meaning limited training won’t affect them. If they get a fair run with injuries, they’ll be in a Grand Final again.”
Nick Dal Santo - Richmond
---------------------------------
FINAL TALLY
Richmond - 5
GWS - 3
West Coast - 2
Collingwood - 1
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2020-flag-predictions-premiership-favourites-expert-2020-predictions-richmond-gws-giants-who-will-win-the-flag/news-story/461b7e7bb583e000cf87e36137a196db
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How could you go of round 1 only a game who knows what this season throws out.
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“If they can get 100 points and keep the opposition to 70 points, look out.’’ Brilliant stuff by Brad Johnson there......
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NICK DAL SANTO 1. Richmond
BEN DIXON 1. Richmond
BRAD JOHNSON 1. GWS Giants 2. Richmond
MAX LAUGHTON 1. Richmond
KATH LOUGHNAN 1. Richmond
LEIGH MONTAGNA 1. GWS Giants 2. Richmond
CAMERON MOONEY 1. GWS Giants 2. Richmond
TOM MORRIS 1. GWS Giants 2. West Coast 3. Richmond
SARAH OLLE 1. Richmond
BEN WATERWORTH 1. Richmond
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-ladder-2020-predictions-full-predicted-ladder-minor-premiers-wooden-spoon-tips-tipping/news-story/28d123bc8b491883310e75490809a627
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Kane Cornes’ UPDATED top eight:
1. GWS
2. Collingwood
3. West Coast
4. Richmond
5. Brisbane
6. Hawthorn
7. Port Adelaide
8. Western Bulldogs
On Richmond: “Don’t think they can win it again. Back-to-back flags are so hard to do, but they’ll be in the mix.”
https://www.zerohanger.com/kane-cornes-reveals-updated-top-eight-and-premiership-tip-41571/
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He can get stuffed like barrett
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RISE OF THE SHOCK CONTENDERS
There are three teams sitting on top of the ladder after Round 2. And don’t lie - you didn’t tip any of them.
Port Adelaide, North Melbourne and Essendon are the only teams to have made it to 2-0, with more familiar names Collingwood and Richmond right behind them thanks to their draw.
Now, it’s obviously early, but in a season where nine wins may be enough to make the eight, these three sides have set themselves up for success.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2020-round-2-analysis-talking-points-reaction-shaun-burgoyne-sling-tackle-contenders-north-melbourne-port-adelaide/news-story/d0a9407b11af69c93b404382746c9195
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ead4QB1VAAMdQfY?format=jpg&name=large)
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Whateley and Cornes rank their top 4 seeds after Round 2
Whateley
1. Collingwood
2. GWS
3. Richmond
4. Geelong
Kane Cornes
1. Richmond
2. Collingwood
3. Brisbane
4. Port Adelaide
Explanations: https://www.sen.com.au/news/2020/06/15/whateley-and-cornes-rank-their-top-4-seeds-after-round-2/
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Wimpley just had to put his beloved handbangers in there... :shh
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Power Rankings: Every AFL club ranked 1-18 after round 2
June 16, 2020
Max Laughton
FOX SPORTS
1. RICHMOND (1-0-1, 120.5%) remain ranked 1st.
We said last week we weren’t planning on moving Richmond out of top spot until they lose a game. Well, they didn’t lose in Round 2.
They certainly came close. While the Tigers had the ascendancy for most of Thursday night’s draw, they were forced to play the Magpies’ game - short kicking was prevalent, allowing both teams to set up behind the ball well. That led to the low-scoring nature of the contest.
Still, after dominating the last hour of the game - they had 13 more inside 50s and laid 27 more tackles in that period, amid other impressive numbers - they really should have taken away all four points.
A chaotic Round 2 played into Richmond’s hands, though, because they’re still fifth on the ladder. West Coast and GWS, widely perceived as the other two flag contenders apart from the Tigers and Pies, both lost - so Damien Hardwick’s side hasn’t lost any ground.
2. COLLINGWOOD (1-0-1, 174.3%) up from 3rd.
Thursday night’s draw was probably better for the Magpies than it was for the Tigers.
As mentioned above, Collingwood was able to force Richmond into playing its type of game - a war of attrition typified by short kicking and impenetrable defensive setups. They’ve allowed an average of just 49 points in their last eight matches, which is remarkable.
And just like with the Tigers, the Magpies are still holding ladder position above their big-name flag rivals like West Coast and GWS.
There would’ve been some who went into Round 2 unsure if Collingwood was a true flag contender. Their minds have been changed.
3. GEELONG (1-1, 119.1%) up from 7th.
Friday night was the Cats saying “hey, remember us? The team that finished on top last year and came closest to beating Richmond in September?”
4. PORT ADELAIDE (2-0, 290.6%) up from 6th.
5. WEST COAST (1-1, 87.9%) down from 4th.
6. GWS GIANTS (1-1, 107.8%) down from 2nd.
7. BRISBANE (1-1, 89.9%) up from 8th.
8. NORTH MELBOURNE (2-0, 119.3%) up from 10th.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/latest-afl-power-rankings-round-3-2020/news-story/3c4a309b253e1979dd3d155f4ab7310b
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^^^^^
The further Amercianisation of Australian sport
Power rankings :banghead
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snore. what a toss
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Yep :banghead
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^^^^^
The further Amercianisation of Australian sport
Power rankings :banghead
A number of footy 'news' sites are doing this now.
Power Rankings: Round 2
Zero Hanger
Lachlan Blain
16 June 2020
1. Richmond (+2)
It was a frustrating, underwhelming night for the Tigers, but two points is – well – two points. And after the slowest of starts they really dominated much of Thursday night’s match. Many Tigers weren’t at their best – Dusty had an almost night, Jack Riewoldt was largely anonymous and Shane Edwards wasn’t his usual self.
But they still outplayed the team who could very well be their biggest rivals this season – and it’s now 12 months unbeaten for the reigning premiers. All in all, no sleepless nights for Dimma and his charges just yet.
2. Collingwood (-)
3. GWS (-2)
4. Port Adelaide (+2)
5. West Coast (-1)
6. Geelong (+3)
7. North Melbourne (+1)
8. Essendon (+3)
https://www.zerohanger.com/power-rankings-round-2-updated-41710/
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Latest Premiership Odds after Round 3
$5 Collingwood $6 before Round 3
$5.50 Richmond $4.50 before Round 3
$9 GWS $7.50 before Round 3
$9 Port Adelaide $13 before Round 3
$9 West Coast $8 before Round 3
$12 Brisbane Lions $14 before Round 3
$12 Geelong $10 before Round 3
$15 Hawthorn $21 before Round 3
$21 Western Bulldogs $26 before Round 3
$34 Essendon $34 before Round 3
$34 Melbourne $34 before Round 3
$41 North Melbourne $26 before Round 3
$41 St Kilda $41 before Round 3
$51 Sydney $51 before Round 3
$67 Carlton $81 before Round 3
$67 Gold Coast $151 before Round 3
$201 Fremantle $101 before Round 3
$251 Adelaide $151 before Round 3
Source: TAB
https://www.sportsnews.com.au/afl/2020-afl-premiership-betting-and-odds-update-ahead-of-round-4/532943
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AFL Power Rankings after Rd 3
June 23, 2020
Max Laughton
FOX SPORTS
And then there was one.
Just two weeks ago, most experts agreed there were four top flag contenders: Collingwood, Richmond, GWS and West Coast.
Only one of that quartet remains unbeaten - in fact, they have a combined record of one win, two draws and five losses since the season restart; the Magpies recording the only victory.
1. COLLINGWOOD (2-0-1, 189.7%) ...... Previous rank: 2
2. RICHMOND (1-1-1, 99.5%) .... Previous rank: 1
The Tigers didn’t look much like themselves in Thursday night’s loss to Hawthorn. So why are they still second?
For a start, it was their first loss in over a year, so we’re not going to give up on them straight away. But more to the point - it wasn’t quite as bad as it looked.
Since the season restart, Richmond's first quarters have been awful, losing them by a combined 56 points. But they’ve been the better team across the other six quarters, winning the contested possessions (+12), inside 50s (+29) and scoreboard (+24 points) among other key stats.
Their problem has been converting territory into scores - on Champion Data’s expected score metric, they should’ve won those quarters by a combined 42 points.
Funnily enough Carlton is having the exact same problem; a few horrible quarters but mostly really good ones. It’s just that the Blues did enough to squeak out a win over their last fortnight, while the Tigers haven’t.
3. BRISBANE LIONS (2-1, 106.9%) ..... Previous rank: 7
4. PORT ADELAIDE (3-0, 243.8%) ....... Previous rank: 4
5. GEELONG CATS (1-2, 111.7%) ......... Previous rank: 3
6. HAWTHORN (2-1, 99.5%) ................ Previous rank: 9
7. NORTH MELBOURNE (2-1, 105.9%) .... Previous rank: 8
8. GWS GIANTS (1-2, 94.3%) ............... Previous rank: 6
9. WEST COAST EAGLES (1-2, 78.1%) .... Previous rank: 5
10. ESSENDON (2-0, 109.2%) ................ Previous rank: 10
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/latest-afl-power-rankings-round-4-2020/news-story/f9b8b2365aeb97a9b43f63efbab2b666
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Close season. Just one win separates 3rd to 15th. We're currently 11th.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcKSgFzVcAUNWc6?format=jpg&name=large)
https://twitter.com/AFL/status/1279746355141869569/photo/1
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TAB ODDS
2020 AFL Premiership
$6 Brisbane Lions $9 before Round 5
GWS $7 before Round 5
$8 Collingwood $5.50 before Round 5
Richmond $8 before Round 5
$9 West Coast $13 before Round 5
$10 Port Adelaide $7 before Round 5
$12 Geelong $12 before Round 5
$15 Western Bulldogs $17 before Round 5
$17 Hawthorn $13 before Round 5
$21 St Kilda $26 before Round 5
$26 Essendon $41 before Round 5
$67 Gold Coast $51 before Round 5
Melbourne $41 before Round 5
North Melbourne $51 before Round 5
$81 Carlton $51 before Round 5
$101 Sydney $81 before Round 5
$201 Fremantle $251 before Round 5
$501 Adelaide $501 before Round 5
https://www.sportsnews.com.au/afl/2020-afl-premiership-betting-and-odds-update-ahead-of-round-6/534868
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Thanks to the Dogs losing, we're up to sixth.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcuTYiPU8AIfrx2?format=jpg&name=large)
Source: AFL twitter.
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TAB ODDS:
2020 AFL Premiership
$7 Collingwood $8 before Round 6
GWS $6 before Round 6
West Coast $9 before Round 6
$8 Port Adelaide $10 before Round 6
Richmond $8 before Round 6
$9 Brisbane Lions $6 before Round 6
$10 Geelong $12 before Round 6
$17 Essendon $26 before Round 6
$21 Western Bulldogs $15 before Round 6
$26 St Kilda $21 before Round 6
$34 Hawthorn $17 before Round 6
$41 Carlton $81 before Round 6
$51 Melbourne $67 before Round 6
$81 Gold Coast $67 before Round 6
$101 North Melbourne $67 before Round 6
$151 Fremantle $201 before Round 6
Sydney $101 before Round 6
$501 Adelaide $501 before Round 6
https://www.sportsnews.com.au/afl/2020-afl-premiership-odds-reshuffled-after-round-6/535854
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Lloyd & Cornes (who wrote us off a month ago) both have us as one of the sides that they think can still win the premiership.
Lloyd:
Eagles, Bris, Port, Rich.
Cornes:
Eagles, Bris, Port, Rich, Coll, GWS, Dogs, Melb.
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Lol Cornes. Waits until pretty much half way through the season then names basically the top 8 at contenders.
What a stuffing stuffwit.
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Up to 5th :thumbsup
Port 28
Bris 28
StK 24
WCE 24
Rich 22
Geel 20
GWS 20
WB 20
-----------
Ess 20
Coll 18
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Whateley and Cornes rank their top four seeds after Round 9
By SEN
3 August 2020
Whateley
1. West Coast
2. Brisbane
3. Port Adelaide
4. Geelong
Cornes
1. West Coast
2. Brisbane
3. Port Adelaide
4. Richmond
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2020/08/03/whateley-and-cornes-rank-their-top-four-seeds-after-round-9/
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Up to second favourite with the bookies.
2020 AFL Premiership
$4.50 West Coast $4.50 before Round 10
$5 Richmond $7 before Round 10
$6.50 Brisbane Lions $6 before Round 10
$8 GWS $8 before Round 10
Port Adelaide $8 before Round 10
$9 Collingwood $9 before Round 10
$15 Geelong $15 before Round 10
St Kilda $17 before Round 10
$26 Western Bulldogs $26 before Round 10
$51 Essendon $51 before Round 10
Melbourne $51 before Round 10
$67 Carlton $67 before Round 10
Hawthorn $67 before Round 10
$101 Gold Coast $101 before Round 10
$251 Fremantle $251 before Round 10
North Melbourne $251 before Round 10
Sydney $251 before Round 10
$1001 Adelaide $1001 before Round 10
https://www.sportsnews.com.au/afl/st-kilda-heavily-backed-to-win-2020-afl-premiership/538998
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According to Foxsports:
Projected Final Ladder
1. Port Adelaide (13 projected wins)
2. Brisbane Lions (11.9)
3. West Coast Eagles (11.4)
4. St Kilda (10.7)
5. Richmond (10.25)
6. Geelong Cats (10.15)
7. GWS Giants (9.95)
8. Collingwood (9.15)
-----------------------------
9. Melbourne (8.5)
10. Western Bulldogs (8.35)
11. Essendon (8.3)
12. Gold Coast Suns (7.55)
13. Carlton (7.4)
14. Hawthorn (7.15)
15. Fremantle (6.7)
16. Sydney Swans (5.35)
17. North Melbourne (5.1)
18. Adelaide Crows (2.1)
PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS
First Qualifying Final (1 v 4): Port Adelaide v St Kilda
First Elimination Final (5 v 8 ): Richmond v Collingwood
Second Elimination Final (6 v 7): Geelong Cats v GWS Giants
Second Qualifying Final (2 v 3): Brisbane Lions v West Coast Eagles
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2020-the-run-home-predicted-ladder-predicted-top-eight-after-round-10-finals-series-final-ladder-projections/news-story/9c5e56f30a17030ae9be56d8ab9bc606
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5. Richmond (10.25)
6. Geelong Cats (10.15)
7. GWS Giants (9.95)
8. Collingwood (9.15)
That would make a reasonable top 4 before the season started
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We're 6th after Round 11:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EfOHXveUwAA2jvA?format=jpg)
Source: AFL twitter.
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Sticking with the top 4 sides.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EfnqoIJU0AE1Xob?format=jpg)
Source: AFL twitter.
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This stat tipped the last three premiers. It says only three AFL teams can win it all
Foxsports
August 19, 2020
Max Laughton
Only three teams are in the right form to win the 2020 AFL premiership, according to a stat that has helped predict the last three premiers.
The team on Fox Footy’s On the Couch have revealed which teams have met the ‘premiership profile’ over the last six rounds - and the top two sides on the ladder Port Adelaide and Brisbane haven’t.
They revealed only West Coast, Geelong and Richmond are currently ticking the right boxes to win the flag.
The premiership profile analyses teams in five key statistical categories.
If they rank in the top five in the AFL in that area, they tick that box. If you have three or more ticks, you fit the profile.
The stats are:
– Points from turnover differential (how much you score from turnovers compared to your opponent);
– Points from forward half (how much you score from chains that start in the forward half);
– Points from back half (how much you score from chains that start in the back half);
– Opposition scores per inside 50 (how inefficient opponents are when they go inside 50 against you);
– Post-clearance contested possession differential (how many contested possessions you win outside of stoppages compared to your opponent).
“These are the aspects of the game over history that are the most conducive to coming up with a winning formula,” St Kilda great Nick Riewoldt said on Fox Footy.
“You’re most likely to win if you’re good in these areas.”
In the last three seasons, the premier has always met the premiership profile, while five of the six Grand Finalists have met it.
WHO HAS MET THE PREMIERSHIP PROFILE?
2019 – Richmond, Geelong, Collingwood
2018 – West Coast, Collingwood, Richmond, Melbourne, Geelong
2017 – Richmond, Adelaide, Sydney, Port Adelaide
Note: These teams met the profile over the entire season.
So how are the 2020 contenders faring in recent weeks?
West Coast and Geelong are currently ticking four of the five boxes each, while Richmond ticks three.
Brisbane and St Kilda are just missing out, ticking two, while Port Adelaide only ticks one box over the past six weeks.
“We think there are three teams that are really elevated,” Riewoldt said.
“Three teams that can get you two ways, so if you take away their one method, they can get you with another method.”
As Melbourne champion Garry Lyon explained, the ladder leaders showed they didn’t have another method in their big Round 12 loss to Geelong.
“Port Adelaide’s the interesting one there. Their supporters are going ‘hang on a damn minute, we’re top of the ladder and have been for a long time’. Yet they’re only ticking one of these boxes,” Lyon said on Fox Footy.
“It may suggest they’re a bit one way, or have one way of going about it, which is good enough to win big games but when it doesn’t work as it didn’t on Friday night (against Geelong), whether they’ve got an alternative plan to go to is the question.”
WHICH TEAMS ARE TICKING THE PREMIERSHIP PROFILE BOXES?
Points from turnover differential: West Coast, Geelong, Richmond, Brisbane
Points from forward half: West Coast, Richmond, Brisbane, St Kilda
Points from back half: West Coast, Richmond, Geelong
Opposition scores per inside 50: West Coast, Geelong
Post-clearance contested possession differential: Geelong, St Kilda, Port Adelaide
Brisbane great Jonathan Brown said: “That’s a big thing. Do you have a plan to go to when you’re not having your greatest day?
“I think Richmond’s the best example of a side that can win both ways, and has two modes. In last year’s finals series, the first two finals, they had to do a lot of their scoring from the back half.
“It’s not their ideal MO but they won anyway, and then of course on Grand Final day, they had the game on their terms and they just wiped GWS off the park. So they won with two different brands throughout September.”
While Geelong met the premiership profile last year, there’s a key difference this year, according to Brownlow medallist Gerard Healy.
“Geelong last year were a great front half side, they were turning the ball over and getting great groundballs, but they lacked that back half game, being able to score” he said.
“That’s one thing they have turned on its head – now they can win both ways.”
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2020-afl-finals-afl-grand-final-premiership-odds-predictor-champion-data-premiership-profile-2020/news-story/d1ce45ef3111bb82cad8d2157664b922
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Back to being premiership favourite with the bookies:
$
Richmond 4
Geelong 5
Brisbane 6
West Coast 6
Port Adel. 8
Collingwood 17
GWS 21
Source: TAB/3AW
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Only concerned about WCE (especially if GF in WA) and Geelong.
Not worried about Lions or Power.
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Gerard Whateley and Kane Cornes have delivered their weekly seedings of the teams they believe can win the 2020 AFL premiership.
Kane Cornes
Geelong
Richmond
West Coast
Port Adelaide
Gerard Whateley
Geelong
Richmond
Port Adelaide
Brisbane
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2020/09/07/im-not-a-big-subscriber-whateley-and-cornes-rank-their-top-four-seeds/
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Steele Sidebottom not returning this year for the Pies.
https://7news.com.au/sport/afl/sidebottom-boost-for-pies-afl-flag-hopes-c-1328677
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Premiership Odds 21/9:
$
Richmond 3.40
Geelong 5
Brisbane 5.50
Port Adel 8
WC Eagles 13
Coll'wood 19
Bulldogs 21
St Kilda 41
Source: SEN/TAB