One-Eyed Richmond Forum
Football => Richmond Rant => Topic started by: one-eyed on July 19, 2012, 03:57:28 AM
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Despite being near the top of the Herald-Sun and AFL Coaches player of the year awards, Champion Data's Brownlow predictor has Cotchin on only eight votes so far :huh and teammate Shane Tuck on 11.
CHAMPION DATA BROWNLOW PREDICTION
26 Jobe Watson (Ess)
23 Scott Thompson (Adel)
21 Sam Mitchell (Haw)
18 Gary Ablett (GC)
16 Scott Pendlebury (Coll)
17 Kieren Jack (Syd)
14 Aaron Sandilands (Frem)
16 Chris Judd (Carl)
16 Brent Stanton (Ess)
14 Dane Swan (Coll)
14 Lance Franklin (Haw)
14 Joel Selwood (Geel)
14 Matthew Boyd (WB)
12 Dayne Beams (Coll)
11 Shane Tuck (Rich)
11 Dean Cox (WC)
11 Josh P. Kennedy (Syd)
11 Scott Selwood (WC)
10 Matt Priddis (WC)
10 Luke Shuey (WC)
10 Matthew Pavlich (Frem)
10 Lenny Hayes (StK)
8 Marc Murphy (Carl)
9 Paul Chapman (Geel)
9 Steve Johnson (Geel)
9 Ivan Maric (Rich)
9 Drew Petrie (NM)
9 Nick Dal Santo (StK)
9 Brett Deledio (Rich)
9 Steele Sidebottom (Coll)
8 Daniel Kerr (WC)
8 Andrew Swallow (NM)
8 Cyril Rioli (Haw)
8 Trent Cotchin (Rich)
8 Patrick Dangerfield (Adel)
8 Tom Rockliff (BL)
8 Rory Sloane (Adel)
7 Ryan O'Keefe (Syd)
7 Kurt Tippett (Adel)
7 Jarrad McVeigh (Syd)
7 Sam Jacobs (Adel)
7 Clancee Pearce (Frem)
6 Adam Goodes (Syd)
6 Hamish Hartlett (PA)
6 Ryan Griffen (WB)
6 Patrick Ryder (Ess)
6 Tom Hawkins (Geel)
6 Daniel Wells (NM)
6 Mitch Robinson (Carl)
5 Heath Shaw (Coll)
5 James Kelly (Geel)
5 Danyle Pearce (PA)
5 Brad Sewell (Haw)
5 Matt Rosa (WC)
5 Nathan Jones (Melb)
5 Matthew Kreuzer (Carl)
5 Nick Riewoldt (StK)
5 Leigh Adams (NM)
5 Shaun Grigg (Rich)
5 Jude Bolton (Syd)
5 Daniel Hannebery (Syd)
5 Ben Howlett (Ess)
5 Ryan Bastinac (NM)
4 Nathan Foley (Rich)
4 Dale Thomas (Coll)
4 Bernie Vince (Adel)
4 Michael Hurley (Ess)
4 Paul Duffield (Frem)
4 Jonathan Brown (BL)
4 Nic Naitanui (WC)
4 Jed Adcock (BL)
4 Pearce Hanley (BL)
4 Chris Mayne (Frem)
4 Matthew Broadbent (PA)
3 Brock McLean (Carl)
3 Ben McEvoy (StK)
3 Ryan Harwood (BL)
3 Luke Parker (Syd)
3 Matthew Bate (Melb)
3 Simon Black (BL)
3 Taylor Walker (Adel)
3 Darren Jolly (Coll)
3 Beau Waters (WC)
3 Brendon Goddard (StK)
3 Jordan Lewis (Haw)
3 Josh Gibson (Haw)
3 Todd Goldstein (NM)
3 Stewart Crameri (Ess)
3 Jonathan Giles (GWS)
3 Corey Enright (Geel)
3 Robert Murphy (WB)
3 Shaun Burgoyne (Haw)
3 Kade Simpson (Carl)
3 Jack Steven (StK)
3 Luke Breust (Haw)
3 Brent Reilly (Adel)
3 Daniel Merrett (BL)
3 Travis Cloke (Coll)
3 Jack Riewoldt (Rich)
3 Brent Harvey (NM)
3 Matthew de Boer (Frem)
3 Luke Dahlhaus (WB)
2 Cameron Wood (Coll)
2 Nathan Fyfe (Frem)
2 Hamish McIntosh (NM)
2 Farren Ray (StK)
2 Paul Bower (Carl)
2 Jay Schulz (PA)
2 Matthew Scarlett (Geel)
2 Adam Cooney (WB)
2 Sam Lonergan (Ess)
2 Allen Christensen (Geel)
2 Angus Monfries (Ess)
2 Hayden Ballantyne (Frem)
2 Jason Blake (StK)
2 Jack Ziebell (NM)
2 Dustin Martin (Rich)
2 Rhyce Shaw (Syd)
2 Jarryd Roughead (Haw)
2 Eric MacKenzie (WC)
2 David Hale (Haw)
2 Sean Dempster (StK)
2 Bachar Houli (Rich)
2 David Armitage (StK)
2 Bryce Gibbs (Carl)
2 Chris Masten (WC)
2 Callan Ward (GWS)
2 Jack Redden (BL)
2 Alex Johnson (Syd)
2 Harley Bennell (GC)
1 Josh J. Kennedy (WC)
1 Jarrad Waite (Carl)
1 Nathan Grima (NM)
1 Aaron Edwards (NM)
1 Brett Ebert (PA)
1 Colin Sylvia (Melb)
1 Jason Gram (StK)
1 Chris Yarran (Carl)
1 Tory Dickson (WB)
1 Josh Drummond (BL)
1 Brent Moloney (Melb)
1 Travis Boak (PA)
1 James Podsiadly (Geel)
1 Lindsay Thomas (NM)
1 Shaun Hampson (Carl)
1 Jason Porplyzia (Adel)
1 Will Minson (WB)
1 Clinton Jones (StK)
1 Heath Scotland (Carl)
1 Harry Taylor (Geel)
1 Jarryd Blair (Coll)
1 Stephen Milne (StK)
1 Daniel Cross (WB)
1 Leigh Montagna (StK)
1 Michael Johnson (Frem)
1 Shannon Hurn (WC)
1 Nathan van Berlo (Adel)
1 Shaun Higgins (WB)
1 Craig Bird (Syd)
1 Brad Ebert (PA)
1 Robin Nahas (Rich)
1 Ben Stratton (Haw)
1 Sam B. Reid (Syd)
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/afl/more-news/sam-mitchell-a-brownlow-medal-smoky/story-e6frf9jf-1226429420337
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I can't see Cotch finishing 4th in the Club's Brownlow votes with just 8 votes :huh. He polled well last year with 15 votes despite us winning just 8 games (the umps notice him) and he's polled in something like 13 out of 15 coaches votes this year.
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Cotch into $12 and is now sixth favourite :thumbsup
(http://centrebet-nrl-grandfinal.com.au/brownlow_28_07.jpg)
http://www.centrebet.com/brownlow-medal-betting
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Our slim finals chances may have gone down the sewer, however our young champion Trent remains Richmonds strongest chance at winning the Brownlow.
Polled very well last year and at least we can say we have been competitive in every match so far in 2012.
Go Cotch -be the first Tiger to win the medal since 1971....and then give him the captaincy.
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I think he is a good show for it. If we can win a few more games before seasons end and he keeps up his form then can't see why not :thumbsup
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The thing going in Cotch's favour is that he won't be robbed of votes by his team mates and our losses have not been huge so he may poll a three voter or two in some of those losses.
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l got no doubt in my mind Cotchin will be taking Charles Brownlow home around his neck.
BUT: the the umpires have the call. & they dont like our club. :-\
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No chance. Fatty Watson will win it.
Next year is a different story though.
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umpires hate rfc so cotch has no chance
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Can't win because I put money on him earlier in the season!
Not a chance
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Will finish top 5
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but wont win lol
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but wont win lol
Never said he'd win said he'd finish top 5 :rollin
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He must win as I jumped on him at $51 and it's all about me
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Betstar has Cotch now equal 3rd favourite for the Brownlow at $10 behind Watson and Ablett ...
http://www.betstar.com.au/betting.asp?Sport=AFL+Futures&MatchComp=Comp&EventName=AFL+-+Brownlow+Medal+2012
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Betstar has Cotch now equal 3rd favourite for the Brownlow at $10 behind Watson and Ablett ...
http://www.betstar.com.au/betting.asp?Sport=AFL+Futures&MatchComp=Comp&EventName=AFL+-+Brownlow+Medal+2012
I was just thinking about this, I think if Cotch can keep playing the way he has been he will be right in amongst it..GO COTCH. Would love to see him win it.
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He's going to have Crowley crawling all over him next week. Now there's someone I hate even more than Ballantyne!
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From Robbo's 'likes' in the Herald-Sun today ...
3. Brownlow fancy (III) Trent Cotchin
Don't you hate men - and maybe women - in your office who wave their Trent Cotchin betting ticket every Monday. My man has Cotchin at 41s. Others would have him at 101. At this rate, he will might be going in as a top-three rated chance but will be hurt by Richmond’s lack of wins. He may poll a lot of ones and twos, but if he can get threes for his four 30-plus touch games, he will be running. Again, his numbers don't compare to Beams, but Cotchin is more explosive where Beams is more composed. Teammate Brett Deledio is clearly impressed. This from his twitter: ''Great win by the boys today. Had front row tickets to the Trent Cotchin show. Does some freakish things.''
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/afl/expert-opinion/axed-port-adelaide-coach-matthew-primus-must-take-some-of-the-blame/story-fn5937w8-1226448734091
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If Adam Cooney can win one... ::)
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If Adam Cooney can win one... ::)
Who?
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If Adam Cooney can win one... ::)
Jnr was ripped off that year.
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26 Jobe Watson (Ess)
23 Scott Thompson (Adel)
21 Sam Mitchell (Haw)
18 Gary Ablett (GC)
16 Scott Pendlebury (Coll)
17 Kieren Jack (Syd)
14 Aaron Sandilands (Frem)
16 Chris Judd (Carl)
16 Brent Stanton (Ess)
14 Dane Swan (Coll)
How the hell is Sandilands so high in that list ??? Bloke has only played about 8 games for the year and only got one kick in the match against Hawthorn. So that's basically 7 games for 2012 he could feasably poll in.
Joke of a list.
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26 Jobe Watson (Ess)
23 Scott Thompson (Adel)
21 Sam Mitchell (Haw)
18 Gary Ablett (GC)
16 Scott Pendlebury (Coll)
17 Kieren Jack (Syd)
14 Aaron Sandilands (Frem)
16 Chris Judd (Carl)
16 Brent Stanton (Ess)
14 Dane Swan (Coll)
How the hell is Sandilands so high in that list ??? Bloke has only played about 8 games for the year and only got one kick in the match against Hawthorn. So that's basically 7 games for 2012 he could feasably poll in.
Joke of a list.
Whered you get that list from?
The first post in this thread :thumbsup
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If Adam Cooney can win one... ::)
Jnr was ripped off that year.
bloody Lids had a better year than Cooney that year
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cotch has been fantastic this yr but in all honesty deledio has had a betetr and more consistant yr , just cotch does all the stand out things
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just that cotch is the better player dude
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really cotch and lids imo are equal just lids has done it longer
dont underestimate lids and his value and what he does
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really cotch and lids imo are equal just lids has done it longer
dont underestimate lids and his value and what he does
Im sure no one would understimate lids=champion
thanks dice :thumbsup
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really cotch and lids imo are equal just lids has done it longer
dont underestimate lids and his value and what he does
def not underselling deeleedeeohh, he's a jet
but chimp is something else, he's like an battleship capable of intergalactic flight
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really cotch and lids imo are equal just lids has done it longer
dont underestimate lids and his value and what he does
Gotta be the worst post in forum history. Trent Cotchin is by far the best player at this club. Equal gee whiz. But then again you did say Edwards is currently the best small forward in the comp
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Cotch into $7 now...
Brownlow shapes as battle of midfielders
Jon Anderson
From: Herald Sun
August 18, 2012
A BUMPER Brownlow year involving 10 of the game's elite midfielders may be decided by a simple footballing adage - who goes in most to win the ball.
Ablett
That's the view of former umpire Darren Goldspink, who voted 371 times in a whistle-blowing career spanning from 1989-2007.
Goldspink believes the ingredients for Brownlow success have been tried and tested since the award's inception in 1924.
"Everyone knows midfielders stick out because they are around the ball. As an umpire you are always most aware of players who go in and get the football," Goldpsink said this week.
"You are more aware of that type of player than someone who receives it. I wouldn't have thought running with the ball constituted three votes."
Contrary to public belief, umpires don't study statistics after a game according to Goldspink: "We wouldn't read the stats. You wouldn't know if someone had 30 or 40 possessions.
"The only time you might see a player's statistics was if you happened to be glancing at the screen during breaks when they were flashed on.
"When you vote you remember a player's skill, how they use the ball, how they win their possessions. For instance is a player who runs around the back for the easy handball for 30 possessions the equal of a guy who gets 25 from in and around the pack?
"When I watch the football today I see the same players, Ablett, Swan, Pendlebury, Mitchell, Selwood, Priddis, Thompson and Dangerfield. You want to see them use the ball well."
Goldspink believes giving votes today would be the hardest it has ever been given the number of people around the ball and umpires having to worry about getting free kicks correct let alone Brownlow votes.
CONTESTED POSSESSIONS & CLEARANCES
THIS is where Sydney's Josh Kennedy excells, being ranked No.1 one for clearances and two for contested possessions.
Because he has never figured on the Brownlow radar it's hard to know if Kennedy will poll. At least you will find out early given most media outlets had him best afield in Sydney's first three games this year.
Patrick Dangerfield is another unknown who ticks every other box. Ranked one for contested possessions and four in clearances, you can also add his breathtaking goal-kicking and rare acceleration. It's hard to fathom why he won't poll.
Of the established crew Watson, Thompson, Selwood and Ablett are all ranked in the top for both categories, with Mitchell, Cotchin and Swan just outside. Beams, despite his weight of possession, doesn't figure as prominently.
Three players who do are Shane Tuck, Matt Priddis and Andrew Swallow, and while none are expected to challenge for the medal all would be worth looking at as best pollers for their respective teams.
VOTING HISTORY
EVEN though he has only won one, which many would consider at least one less than he should have, Gary Ablett has averaged a remarkable 24 votes per season over the past five years (23 last year followed by 26, 30, 22 and 20).
Last year's winner Dane Swan is only slightly less prolific, totalling 102 votes in the same period (34, 34, 12, 12, 20).
Sam Mitchell has been an eye catcher throughout his career, winning two best and fairests in the U18s with Eastern Ranges and three at Hawthorn, plus the Liston trophy for best player in the VFL in 2002. And he polls with 94 votes over the past five seasons (30, 15, 13, 15, 21).
Joel Selwood is another regular vote-getter (17, 21, 16, 19) while Scott Thompson (12, 15, 11, 15, 18) is consistent rather than dominant. Of the others Jobe Watson polled 15 and 16 in 2010-11 and Trent Cotchin entered calculations after polling 15 votes last year.
Patrick Dangerfield, seven votes last year, Josh Kennedy (three in his career) and Dayne Beams (eight in total) have never figured on leader boards.
BETTING
My advice would be to ignore the regular "pushes" that come from betting agencies because they are rarely, if ever, right.
You just to need to look at the history of recent red-hot favourites to discover a trail of financial disaster if you jumped aboard favourites in recent years.
In 2007-08 Ablett was around the odds-on mark at this stage of the season but lost both years, finishing fifth and second. In 2009 Dane Swan was a $1.90 chance before finishing third.
And last year Chris Judd dominated betting markets for the entire season but was never going to win, ending up fifth behind Swan. So go for the value, such as Swan last year ($10) or Judd ($20) in 2009.
There is always value, such as the Sportingbet Australia punter who had $50 on Dangerfield at $151 or another who shrewdly parted with $5 on Beams at $1001.
If you want some this year you could do worse than having something on Selwood each-way at $21 with Sportingbet Australia.
CHAMPION DATA'S TOP 10
Name Games Votes
Jobe Watson (Ess) 19 30
Gary Ablett (GC) 17 28
Scott Thompson (Adel) 19 23
Sam Mitchell (Haw) 19 22
Kieren Jack (Syd) 19 21
Scott Pendlebury (Coll) 15 20
Dayne Beams (Coll) 18 20
Dane Swan (Coll) 16 18
Joel Selwood (Geel) 18 18
Matthew Pavlich (Frem) 19 18
WHO IS LEADING THE MEDIA AWARDS
HERALD SUN
Gary Ablett (GC), 49
Jobe Watson (Ess), 47
Trent Cotchin (Rich), 42
Scott Thompson (Adel), 40
Dane Swan (Coll), 40
THE AGE
Jobe Watson (Ess), 120
Trent Cotchin (Rich), 118
Gary Ablett (GC), 94
Patrick Dangerfield (Adel), 93
Scott Pendlebury (Coll), 85
AFL COACHES' ASSOCIATION
Trent Cotchin (Rich), 93
Jobe Watson (Ess), 88
Dayne Beams (Coll), 83
Gary Ablett (GC), 78
Matthew Boyd (WB), 74
Patrick Dangerfield (Adel), 74
Scott Thompson (Adel), 74
3AW
Dayne Beams (Coll), 29
Jobe Watson (Ess), 26
Sam Mitchell (Haw), 23
Gary Ablett (GC), 22
Patrick Dangerfield (Adel), 20
THE ODDS
$3 Jobe Watson (Ess)
$5 Gary Ablett (GC)
$7 Trent Cotchin (Rich)
$10 Scott Thompson (Adel)
$11 Patrick Dangerfield (Adel)
Sam Mitchell (Haw)
$13 Dane Swan (Coll)
$15 Joel Selwood (Geel)
Scott Pendlebury (Coll)
Dayne Beams (Coll)
$17 Josh Kennedy (Syd)
$34 Brett Deledio (Rich)
Lenny Hayes (StK)
Kieren Jack (Syd)
$81 Dean Cox (WCE)
$101 Daniel Kerr (WCE)
Matt Priddis (WCE)
Daniel Wells (NM)
www.heraldsun.com.au/afl/brownlow-shapes-as-battle-of-midfielders/story-e6frf9io-1226452885640