One-Eyed Richmond Forum
Football => Richmond Rant => Topic started by: one-eyed on June 09, 2016, 04:56:18 AM
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Stats Insider: Inaccurate goalkicking - expected score versus actual score in AFL
Max Laughton
Foxsports
9 June 2016
SOMETIMES the most simple things in footy are the most important.
For all of the planning pre game and in the coaches’ box, even the master tacticians of the AFL can’t help when their team just can’t kick straight.
Analysis from AFL stat gurus Champion Data reveals that nine games this season have been decided by goalkicking. They use a metric called ‘expected score’, which analyses each scoring shot based on difficulty and gives it a value based on how often you would expect a team to goal from that spot on the ground.
By comparing a game’s expected score to the actual score, we can then confirm what you can already see when you look at the scoreboard some weeks — teams that kick poorly while their opponents kick straight can cost themselves the game.
On average in 2016 Geelong has scored 4.5 points fewer than it should have and given up 4.4 points more than it should have, using expected goals to analyse scoring opportunities.
That places it second-last in the competition ahead of only Richmond. The Tigers have been average in front of goal but their opponents have kicked remarkably straight all season, costing them to the tune of nearly 10 points per match.
Richmond would be judged much differently, if their opponents would stop slotting goals so easily.
On average in 2016 Richmond has lost by a margin of 18.5, but using expected goals, they should be losing by an average of 9.2 points per game. That would make their case for an unlikely finals run much more likely.
Round 2 — Collingwood def Richmond
Actual score: 87-86
Expected score: 82-94
http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/stats-insider-how-western-bulldogs-geelong-cats-have-been-most-hurt-by-inaccurate-goalkicking-expected-scores/news-story/412000efb3bf418c2596d17bc7883b02
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Delete thread, stats don't matter, games are only won if the players do their job.. ::) ::)
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:facepalm
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Does tell a story, our slow boring playing style means that defenses have already protected the main attacking corridor so by the time we get it inside 50 its usually in the pockets so the kicks are difficult at best.
In addition Jack has been completely off with his kicking as has Ty, with both of them being historically our most accurate goalkickers its no wonder our stats are so bad.
In comparison other teams are transitioning so quickly into our forward 50 after our consistent turnovers that most marks are being taken dead in front 20-30 metres from goal making for easy conversions (although we have missed a few more of these ourselves this season).