One-Eyed Richmond Forum
Football => Richmond Rant => Topic started by: mat073 on July 28, 2019, 12:11:21 PM
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Bookies now have us out right premiership favourites.
One slip up and we could still easily miss top four
West Coast looking very solid and well balanced again.
Do we need to avoid an interstate final ??
Will our percentage come back and bite us on the backside ?
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No guaranteed wins from here:
Melbourne - good side on paper that's had a bad year, now with nothing to lose, always grow an extra leg v us - Gawn the key. :shh
Carlton - Up and about and twice the side they were in round one when they still managed to give us scare , we never blew them away when they were crap, would love nothing more than to derail our flag tilt. :shh :shh
West Coast - Defending premiers and will be desperate to finish top 2 and get a home final. :shh :shh :shh
Bears - curently second, full of talent and play with no fear, genuine contenders. :shh :shh :shh :shh
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Richmond. Getting better at the right time. Everyone's worst nightmare..... :shh :shh :shh :shh :shh
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No guaranteed wins from here:
Melbourne - good side on paper that's had a bad year, now with nothing to lose, always grow an extra leg v us - Gawn the key. :shh
Carlton - Up and about and twice the side they were in round one when they still managed to give us scare , we never blew them away when they were crap, would love nothing more than to derail our flag tilt. :shh :shh
West Coast - Defending premiers and will be desperate to finish top 2 and get a home final. :shh :shh :shh
Bears - curently second, full of talent and play with no fear, genuine contenders. :shh :shh :shh :shh
Agree!
All hard games!
Plus if we finish top 4 we are likely to play interstate.
Need Brisbane to drop a couple of games!
Must win next two weeks!
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I think West Coast.
No.1 - West Coast
No.2 - Sooklong
No.3 - GWS
No.4 - Richmond
No.5 - Brisbane
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I don't think we need to fear Melbourne- they have been terrible all year .
Carlton are up and about - they did beat Brisbane but apart from that they are just beating mediorce sides .
Two games against interstate teams at our fortress.
3 wins absolute minimum.
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Agreed Mat.
Wouldn't surprise me if we won them all.
Reality is Melbourne has nothing to play for.
Carlton is happy to win to push Adelaide down and gain ground on their pick after the Stocker trade, but I suspect we'll have their number regardless.
Good chance vs WCE, they're my #1 but I still think playing them at the G swings it in our favour.
Brisbane never beat us. Could be a lot different this year but I doubt they'll get it done. Won a lot of games but IMO not a hard draw...
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Honestly besides beating WCE at the Gabba in R1 Brisbane have only really beaten GWS out of the top handful. And WCE is a seasoned team, they know it's a long year. I don't think Brisbane will trouble is at the G.
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Brisbane have only played once at the MCG this season .
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No guaranteed wins from here:
Melbourne - good side on paper that's had a bad year, now with nothing to lose, always grow an extra leg v us - Gawn the key. :shh
Carlton - Up and about and twice the side they were in round one when they still managed to give us scare , we never blew them away when they were crap, would love nothing more than to derail our flag tilt. :shh :shh
West Coast - Defending premiers and will be desperate to finish top 2 and get a home final. :shh :shh :shh
Bears - curently second, full of talent and play with no fear, genuine contenders. :shh :shh :shh :shh
Melbourne - game is played on an oval not on paper and Melbourne have done nothing to show they can beat us on our A game. Turn up with our current form and switched on they wont get near us.
Carlton always comes out for the first round fresh and trained to the minute. Same with Melbourne we just do not want to take them easy.
Agree with West Coast
Brisbane - have a look at their draw. Only 5 games against current top 8 sides so far. Good win first up against West Coast in round 1. Again form from round 1 is unrelaible in the closing rounds. Another good win against GWS and 2 point win over Adelaide. Collingwood and Essendon beat them well in the earlier part of the season. But on the back of 13 games against teams outside the 8 right now puts Brisbane in the over achieving area.
Our season result is well in our hands.
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We haven't played WCE for well over a year, and they smacked us in that game. Very much an unknown quantity.
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2019 AFL Premiership Odds
$3.75 Richmond
$4.50 Geelong
$4.50 West Coast
$8 Brisbane
$9 GWS
$13 Collingwood
$21 Essendon
$51 Western Bulldogs
$101 Adelaide
$101 Port Adelaide
$151 Hawthorn
$251 North Melbourne
$251 St Kilda
$501 Fremantle
https://www.sportsnews.com.au/afl/richmond-tigers-new-favourites-for-afl-premiership-2019/487570
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We've been the best side over the past 6 weeks based on the form ladder:
Richmond 6-0 166%
Brisbane 6-0 138%
West Coast 5-1 145%
Essendon 5-1 99%
Bulldogs 4-2 112%
Carlton 4-2 107%
North 3-3 108%
Geelong 3-3 101%
Our points "for" is 50 more than the next best and our points against is the best too.
http://formladder.com.au/afl/Team/Ladder/Form/Period/6
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Fun fact
We are the best team over the past 50 games .
Third best team over past 100
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Form against the top 8 sides
P W/L %
Geelong 7 6-1 150
West Coast 7 4-3 103
Brisbane 5 3-2 90
Richmond 7 3-4 82
GWS 9 4-5 106
Collingwood 8 4-4 101
Essendon 8 3-5 86
Adelaide 6 2-4 95
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Port 11 4-7 100
W.Bulldogs 8 3-5 91
Fremantle 9 4-5 87
Hawthorn 10 4-6 86
North 10 3-7 89
St Kilda 9 1-8 70
Sydney 11 2-9 87
Carlton 7 2-5 74
Melbourne 10 0-10 70
Gold Coast 9 0-9 51
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2019/08/07/does-top-8-form-count-for-much1/
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Won't be convinced until we beat a good side in good form...eg West Coast and maybe Brisbane.
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I would rate WCE ahead of us at the moment. I have us at no.2 on current output.
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I would rate WCE ahead of us at the moment. I have us at no.2 on current output.
It’s going to come down to home finals - if GWS and Lions get a home final vs us then we’d be the number 4 seed, otherwise I’d agree just the Eagles.
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I would rate WCE ahead of us at the moment. I have us at no.2 on current output.
Agreed, I'd have us at least behind the weagles.
The thing is, even if you're the best team in the comp - you still need a lot to go right AND a bit of luck along the way to win it. Happened for us in 2017, not so much in 2018.
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Why Cats’ finals rivals should be worried
Jon Ralph,
Herald Sun
9 Aug 2019
The Cats have played seven games against teams currently in the eight and won six of them. The only blemish was a four-point loss to GWS.
Not only have they won those games, they have an average winning margin of 35 points including several crushing wins.
Granted, they beat Collingwood, GWS and West Coast early and got Richmond when injuries had the Tigers at rock bottom.
But if the Cats are in need of affirmation about whether their best is good enough, it is right there in front of them.
...
For all the predictions of Richmond September glory, the Tigers have beaten just three of seven top-eight sides, losing to Adelaide, GWS, Collingwood (plus a win over the Pies) and Geelong.
West Coast is on the march, having won 11 of its past 13 games, and all eight of their MCG and Marvel Stadium contests in the past two years.
And their record against top-eight sides stacks up, having dropped only three of seven games — one of them by a single point.
Read more: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/expert-opinion/jon-ralph/geelongs-record-close-to-flawless-against-top-eight-rivals/news-story/92d582ebef45295bb08eff5a0d2631b4
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Means nothing. Pretty sure Geelong had the wood on us until the QF in '17 :)
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Handy result tonight. Thanks Hawks.
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Wonderful result tonight.
Clarko really is a friend of the Tigers.
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He's also a great coach, gee he really knows how to pull one out of the hat doesn't he?
First Cats, now this. No wonder he's considered the greatest coach.
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We're outright premiership favourite with the bookies tonight.
$
Richmond 3.40
West Coast 4.25
Geelong 5.00
Brisbane 6.00
Collingwood 8.00
W.Bulldogs 17.00
GWS 26.00
Essendon 41.00
Port Adel. 101.00
Hawthorn 126.00
Adelaide 151.00
https://beteasy.com.au/sports-betting/australian-rules/afl/afl-futures-2019/outright-markets-20190928-1070789-30926030
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I still wouldn't want to play the Eagles over there .
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We are again after tonight's win.
1. Richmond deserves clear premiership favouritism
The Tigers' roll continues. Two weeks after beating Brisbane at the MCG, Damien Hardwick's men made the trip to the Gabba and left with the same result, this time taking a 47-point victory. They progress to the preliminary final and will return to their Melbourne fortress. On a 10-game winning streak, Richmond's emphatic qualifying final victory over the Lions was the most impressive win of the first week of the finals and will see it head into the last four as the clear premiership fancy. It will have some selection questions to ponder over the break next week, particularly around its ruckmen and whether it continues with both Ivan Soldo and Toby Nankervis. Last year's preliminary final loss against Collingwood would have haunted the Tigers over summer, but a chance at retribution against the Magpies looms in this year's Grand Final.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-09-07/five-things-we-learned-brisbane-v-richmond