One-Eyed Richmond Forum
Football => Richmond Rant => Topic started by: one-eyed on September 30, 2019, 01:18:57 AM
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Dimmasty: Tiger flag window is wide open
Jon Ralph
Herald Sun
30 September 2019
Richmond star Dion Prestia is hopeful the Tigers can cash in on their wide-open premiership window and replicate the dynasties of Brisbane and Hawthorn in the past two decades.
The club is perfectly placed to secure another premiership with the current crop given their powerful draft position and the vast stockpile of talented youngsters.
After Brandon Ellis joins Gold Coast as a free agent the Tigers will add a compensation pick to current draft selections 18, 36 and 37 and will secure indigenous talent Maurice Rioli Jr in November 2020.
Alex Rance, Jack Graham, Jack Higgins and Sydney Stack should resume in Round 1 next year, with Jack Ross, Riley Collier-Dawkins, Mabior Chol and Callum Coleman-Jones all pushing for opportunities.
Prestia told the Herald Sun that at only 26 he was hopeful the Tigers could keep adding silverware after two premierships and a preliminary final in three seasons.
I have definitely thought of that. Having two in three years is incredible but you look at Brisbane of the early 2000s and what Hawthorn did. We are just going to get stronger next year having Alex back, Prestia said.
He will be ready to go day one and Sydneys going to have a full pre-season and Marlion as well, so really if you look at it we are going to get better next year.
Its exciting but you have to take this in as much as possible because you never know when its going to happen.
Richmond has only three players over the age of 30 and have been able to make risky recruiting decisions on Stack and Pickett that in hindsight are masterstrokes.
Maurice Riolis father won the 1982 Norm Smith Medal for the Tigers, with Daniel Rioli the cousin of Maurice Jr.
Some of the indigenous boys in our team are just incredible. They have stood up all year and in the finals series, the likes of Shai Bolton and for him to get a premiership medal as well is amazing. It would be nice to have another Daniel running around, Prestia said.
Richmond chief executive Brendon Gale said on Sunday that the club was confident of its list position.
I dont think were probably going to be as active as what we have been, he said.
Well go to the draft, of course, but Im very confident with where our list is at. The youth, young Jack Ross as well, Jack Graham, the VFL ... Craig McRae has done an incredible job. Theres a lot of youth trying to get through.
Richmond will secure pick 19 in the national draft when Gold Coast is handed a priority pick on Monday, as well as picks 36 and 37.
The Tigers are also likely to get another selection for Dan Butler, who has been linked to Carlton and seems set for a new start.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/teams/richmond/richmond-hopeful-of-more-premierships-with-talentladen-list/news-story/86227db2e7db691a6f80d69be1354517
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Only a couple of years left open Dusty 29 Cotch 30 next year. Grandpa Houli, Wheelchair Jack, aged care Edwards 30+.
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When the Hawks won their last premiership in 2015 , Lewis and Roughy were 29 .Hodge 31 and Mitchell 33.
We can still win 2 more.
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I agree 2 more flags are their for this Richmond team.
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We have the kids and the systems to be winning premierships after Houli, Edwards, Riewoldt, Cotchin Retire.
Martin will play for another 5 years occupying a forward pocket role ala Matthews in the last part of his career. Martin will go past 300 games and 400 goals as a result.
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Only a couple of years left open Dusty 29 Cotch 30 next year. Grandpa Houli, Wheelchair Jack, aged care Edwards 30+.
To be fair, despite being somewhat of a match winner on the weekend, Jack hasn't really been a huge contributor this year due to injuries. Nor has Cotch. Dusty will be 29 next year so surely has a couple of years of his blistering best left in him you'd hope. Edwards doesn't look like slowing down yet either with his frame. Houli only getting better but I suspect will fall off a cliff in a year or two.
When the Hawks won their last premiership in 2015 , Lewis and Roughy were 29 .Hodge 31 and Mitchell 33.
We can still win 2 more.
Mitchell and Hodge were extremely durable but I suspect Cotchin won't be. He really had trouble getting on the park this year and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he retires in a couple of years - maybe end 2021. He will probably pass on the captaincy soon IMO.
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I love that word - Dimmasty 😍 ♥
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Looks like the Dimmasty references exclude the Geelong salinity. :lol
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How valuable has Cotch been. Brownlow, Captain for 10 odd years. We were so lucky to get him in hindsight. A Hodge like influence on the club.
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Cotch just does what needs to be done. Completely reinvented himself since 2016.
That tackle on Mummy sent them a message .
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How does the age and games played stack up?
The Tigers are obviously in premiership mode ... It is an experienced group, with an average of 79.1 games to their names, and scarily for rivals they are only ranked 10th for average age (23.2 years). It's difficult to see Richmond dropping out of contention anytime soon.
Do they have enough quality?
Absolutely. Seven 'elite' players this year was the equal-most with Brisbane and West Coast, and the Tigers are into another Grand Final despite champion stuff Alex Rance missing basically the entire season. Recruiting and drafting well recently looks likely to extend the successful era.
What do the numbers say about the way they play?
The Tigers tick every 'premiership indicator' box except post-clearance groundball (AFL No.10). They rank top four for points against (No.4), points from forward half turnover (No.2) and inside 50 differential (No.2). Whatever the conditions, their hard-running, forward handball brand stacks up.
Is their premiership window open?
Wide open. The Tigers have been the best team in the League across the past three seasons and should remain thereabouts for some time yet. Travis King
https://www.hawthornfc.com.au/news/2019-09-25/the-view-from-each-clubs-premiership-window
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From an Age profile and experience viewpoint, there's at least one more in our current group :pray.
Premiership team's Age profile (since 2000)
2010 Collingwood:24 years, 57 days.
2016 W.Bulldogs: 24 years, 144 days.
2008 Hawthorn: 24 years, 218 days.
2017 Richmond: 25 years, 43 days.
2001 Brisbane: 25 years, 150 days.
2000 Essendon: 25 years, 240 days.
2005 Sydney: 25 years, 273 days.
2006 West Coast: 25 years, 273 days.
2007 Geelong: 25 years, 273 days.
2018 West Coast: 26 years, 107 days.
2002 Brisbane: 26 years, 131 days.
2019 Richmond: 26 years, 176 days.
2012 Sydney: 26 years, 182 days.
2009 Geelong: 26 years, 259 days.
2003 Brisbane: 26 years, 264 days.
2013 Hawthorn: 26 years, 278 days.
2014 Hawthorn: 26 years, 294 days.
2004 Port Adel.: 27 years, two days.
2011 Geelong: 27 years, 99 days.
2015 Hawthorn: 27 years, 304 days.
Premiership team's Experience (since 2000)
2016 W.Bulldogs: 1807 games
2010 Collingwood:2226 games
2017 Richmond: 2290 games
2008 Hawthorn: 2362 games
2000 Essendon: 2470 games
2007 Geelong: 2578 games
2006 West Coast: 2652 games
2018 West Coast: 2657 games
2005 Sydney: 2701 games
2001 Brisbane: 2758 games
2019 Richmond: 2764 games
2004 Port Adel.: 2847 games
2012 Sydney: 2890 games
2013 Hawthorn: 3069 games
2014 Hawthorn: 3026 games
2002 Brisbane: 3185 games
2009 Geelong: 3199 games
2011 Geelong: 3207 games
2003 Brisbane: 3454 games
2015 Hawthorn: 3670 games
https://www.richmondfc.com.au/news/2019-10-11/seasoned-tigers-savour-september-success
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From an Age profile and experience viewpoint, there's at least one more in our current group :pray.
Premiership team's Age profile (since 2000)
2010 Collingwood:24 years, 57 days.
2016 W.Bulldogs: 24 years, 144 days.
2008 Hawthorn: 24 years, 218 days.
2017 Richmond: 25 years, 43 days.
2001 Brisbane: 25 years, 150 days.
2000 Essendon: 25 years, 240 days.
2005 Sydney: 25 years, 273 days.
2006 West Coast: 25 years, 273 days.
2007 Geelong: 25 years, 273 days.
2018 West Coast: 26 years, 107 days.
2002 Brisbane: 26 years, 131 days.
2019 Richmond: 26 years, 176 days.
2012 Sydney: 26 years, 182 days.
2009 Geelong: 26 years, 259 days.
2003 Brisbane: 26 years, 264 days.
2013 Hawthorn: 26 years, 278 days.
2014 Hawthorn: 26 years, 294 days.
2004 Port Adel.: 27 years, two days.
2011 Geelong: 27 years, 99 days.
2015 Hawthorn: 27 years, 304 days.
Premiership team's Experience (since 2000)
2016 W.Bulldogs: 1807 games
2010 Collingwood:2226 games
2017 Richmond: 2290 games
2008 Hawthorn: 2362 games
2000 Essendon: 2470 games
2007 Geelong: 2578 games
2006 West Coast: 2652 games
2018 West Coast: 2657 games
2005 Sydney: 2701 games
2001 Brisbane: 2758 games
2019 Richmond: 2764 games
2004 Port Adel.: 2847 games
2012 Sydney: 2890 games
2013 Hawthorn: 3069 games
2014 Hawthorn: 3026 games
2002 Brisbane: 3185 games
2009 Geelong: 3199 games
2011 Geelong: 3207 games
2003 Brisbane: 3454 games
2015 Hawthorn: 3670 games
https://www.richmondfc.com.au/news/2019-10-11/seasoned-tigers-savour-september-success
Interesting metrics, but it's ironic that Richmond played a guy (Pickett) who would bump our average age up and also drag our average games down.
No reason to suspect we can't challenge hard again in 2020, and also no reason to think we can't turn the list over and keep challenging for years to come without falling off the cliff as such.
Key retirements to the likes of Cotchin (1-2 years?), Riewoldt (1-2 years?), Houli (1-2 years?), Edwards (2-3 years?), Rance (2-3 years?) and Dusty (3-4 years?) need to be staggered and planned for but I think the club would already be preparing itself for this.
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What would be classed as a dynasty? 3 flags?
IF IT'S NOT A DYNASTY YET, IT SOON WILL BE
Robert Vaughan
7news
12 December 2019
When Alex Rance's season ended with a knee reconstruction after round one, the popular thinking was that eventually it would cost Richmond. Instead, the Tigers regrouped and built a formidable head of steam. They made the most of seven-straight MCG games before the finals and mauled GWS by 89 points for the premiership. Mid-year recruit Marlion Pickett, a former prison inmate, was the story of the grand final with his AFL debut. The Tigers now have won two flags in three years and will be the team to beat next season.
https://7news.com.au/sport/afl/what-happened-and-whats-coming-in-the-afl-c-601930
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3 flags is a dynasty. I think this group will get 4 by the time their done.
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A former prison inmate
Unnecessary gutter journalism
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A former prison inmate
Unnecessary gutter journalism
Agree. They cannot let these things go.
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3rd biggest story of 2019 according to the AFL website.
Is it a dynasty? The Tigers of old, too strong and too bold
Richmond continues to make a mockery of what is supposed to be the era of equality.
A second premiership either side of the Tigers' preliminary final run in 2018 when they were hot flag favourites was enough to ignite talk of a dynasty.
They not only defeated the Giants in the Grand Final but hammered them by 89 points.
And there is no reason to doubt Richmond's ability to add to its haul next year, even with the shock retirement of champion defender Alex Rance, who missed all bar one game in 2019.
In fact, not even a raft of injuries to key players Rance, Jack Riewoldt, Trent Cotchin, David Astbury, Kane Lambert, Shane Edwards and Toby Nankervis, to name just a few or a Dustin Martin suspension could derail the Tigers.
They resumed from the bye in ninth place with a 7-6 record, then bucked general convention in bringing seven players back in one hit.
Damien Hardwick's men never lost again, winning 12 straight matches, including three finals, to confirm their status as the best team since Hawthorn's 2013-15 flag three-peat.
Part of why Richmond was so good was its ability to take educated risks, with 2017 premiership hero Jack Graham's preliminary final injury presenting another such opportunity. After Sydney Stack had already worked out. There were much safer options than Marlion Pickett but Hardwick took a punt on him and it paid off magnificently.
Pickett narrowly fell short of the Norm Smith Medal, which instead went to superstar Martin for the second time in three years. At his best, there is arguably no finer player in the game right now than the 2017 Brownlow medallist but this club is going every bit as well.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/364568/the-50-biggest-stories-of-2019-5-1
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RICHMOND
No Rance, no worries
see last year
The Tigers coped fine without their star stuff Alex Rance in 2019, so why cant they replicate that in 2020? Dylan Grimes, David Astbury and Nick Vlastuin all stood up to fill the void and youd back them to do the same in 2020. The other major upside is the array of younger talent Tigers fans have barely seen yet. Imagine if it all clicks for raw talents like Shai Bolton, Marlion Pickett and Noah Balta this season? What if one or all of Jack Ross, Patrick Naish and Riley Collier-Dawkins can cement a spot in the best 22? Yeah, Damien Hardwicks troops arent going anywhere.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2020-predictions-hope-for-every-club-why-you-should-be-optimistic-about-your-team/news-story/acdff4e6977e6727025ea818ad85b343
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AFL list age profiles: Statistical representation of premiership lists (Part 3)
Earl Chi
theRoar.com.au
24 Feb 2020
Here AGP-Earlgrams are presented for premiership sides of the past 12 years (click on link below to see full 12).
It should be noted that Western Bulldogs (2016), Richmond (2019) and Hawthorn (2014) had an inordinately low number of players play 75 per cent or more games over the course of their premiership seasons. This suggests these sides managed substantial injuries throughout their successful seasons and also that their AGP-Earlgrams are less useful in demonstrating the age profile of the senior players that ultimately facilitated success.
Richmond is a team now on the cusp of a dynasty. Their 2017 AGP-Earlgram distribution of senior players is a mirror image of Collingwood (2011). While interpreting Richmonds (2019) AGP-Earlgram is problematic, it does suggest there is a dynamism to Richmonds current list management that has historical precedent for sustained success.
(https://cdn4.theroar.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Fig8_RICH_2017.jpg) (https://cdn4.theroar.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Fig8_RICH_2019.jpg)
Establishing a core group of similarly aged players appears to be an overarching mechanism to building a premiership side, and success, if it comes, will occur when this group is between the ages of 22 and 28. A core is at its prime in the 25-28 age bracket, and this is when teams should theoretically be in their true premiership window.
However, sustained success is not expected from such a team. Dynasties occur when early on a younger core experience success and later on the club reduces reliance on this single core of players and is dynamic in transitioning players in and out of the side.
See the AGP-Earlgrams of the last 12 premiership sides here: https://www.theroar.com.au/2020/02/24/afl-list-age-profiles-statistical-representation-of-premiership-lists-part-3/
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Our 2019 graph is probably closest to Geelong 2009. Based on that we've got a couple more years to challenge for another flag.