One-Eyed Richmond Forum
Football => Richmond Rant => Topic started by: one-eyed on June 07, 2021, 03:47:40 PM
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In the past 4 years we've won 31 out of 36 on the run home after Round 12:
(http://oneeyed-richmond.com/images/richmond/RunHomeRecordPostR12.png)
Source: https://www.afl.com.au/video/628003/carlton-headed-nowhere-two-dees-applying-for-one-job
How many games will we win on the run home this year?
R13 vs West Coast @ Optus Stadium
R15 vs St Kilda
R16 vs Gold Coast @ Metricon Stadium
R17 vs Collingwood
R18 vs Brisbane
R19 vs Geelong
R20 vs Fremantle @ Optus Stadium
R21 vs North Melbourne
R22 vs GWS Giants @ Giants Stadium
R23 vs Hawthorn
nb. all non-venue listed matches scheduled at the MCG but may or may not change.
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7-3 would be hopefully the worst case which would likely place us 7/8th
8-2 would likely get us 5-6th
9-1 would likely get us 3-4th
10-0 we’d finish second I’d say.
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9 wins from that lot
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At least 7. Hopefully 8-9
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We'll win all 10. We don't lose after the Bye.
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its a 9 for me.
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8 maybe 9
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From Barrett's 'Sliding Doors' column:
IF ... a 7-6 scoreline would normally be a worry for a premiership-contending team entering the bye period ...
THEN ... for the Tigers, it ain't a worry. They're the Tigers. And with the dreadful Saints up next, followed by the equally ordinary Gold Coast and battling Collingwood, no reason to think there won’t be a 10-6 scoreline going into a massive round 18 match against Brisbane.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/632064/sliding-doors-if-there-was-one-thing-the-teague-train-needed-ahead-of-the-independent-review-then
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The Run Home after Round 14
Max Laughton
Foxsports
20 June 2021
8. RICHMOND (7-6, 105.3%)
Remaining games:
Round 15: St Kilda at MCG
Round 16: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Round 17: Collingwood at MCG
Round 18: Brisbane at MCG
Round 19: Geelong at MCG
Round 20: Fremantle at Optus Stadium
Round 21: North Melbourne at MCG
Round 22: GWS at Giants Stadium
Round 23: Hawthorn at MCG
Chance of playing finals from current record: 57%
Remaining fixture difficulty: 18th-hardest (easiest)
This kind fixture, which features six of nine games at the MCG and just two meetings with fellow members of the top eight, is why so many have kept faith in Richmond despite them being 1-6 against the top eight. The Tigers should realistically be favoured in all but two, or maybe three games (depending on how GWS is travelling by Round 22).
The problem is the gap between them and the top four; they’re realistically three games back, because their percentage is so much lower than every member of the top five. They are very unlikely to pass both Brisbane and Port on percentage AND wins, which is their easiest path to fourth.
All of this means the Tigers are in a worse situation than in 2019, when after 14 rounds, they were two games out with percentage less of an issue (7-6 92%, with West Coast at 9-4 106.2% in fourth).
In 2019, they won all nine of their remaining matches and finished third; but if they’d lost just one, they would’ve likely finished fifth. They had to be perfect, and they were - but repeating perfection is very difficult. And it’s very hard to win the flag from outside of the top four.
Fox Footy’s projection: 12.65 projected wins, finishing seventh
PROJECTED FINAL LADDER
1. Melbourne (16.4 projected wins)
2. W.Bulldogs (15.9)
3. Geelong (15.85)
4. Brisbane (14.8 )
5. Port Adelaide (14.25)
6. West Coast (13.1)
7. Richmond (12.65)
8. Sydney (12.6)
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9. GWS Giants (10.9)
10. Essendon (10.5)
11. Fremantle (10.2)
12. Adelaide (8.85)
13. Carlton (8.5)
14. St Kilda (8.35)
15. Collingwood (8 )
16. Gold Coast (7.35)
17. Hawthorn (5.9)
18. North Melbourne (3.9)
PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS
First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Melbourne vs Brisbane Lions
First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Port Adelaide vs Sydney Swans
Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): West Coast Eagles vs Richmond
Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Western Bulldogs vs Geelong Cats
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-the-run-home-after-round-14-predicted-ladder-top-eight-finals-ladder-predictor-analysis-afl-finals-fixture/news-story/de46d0762cca975dd450e0666af78844
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We need to start from this week and win well don't look to far ahead.
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Yes just look after what we can control. Biggest thing is we need to kick into a more high quality output mode and minimise the simple errors.
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This site predicts us with finish with 14 wins and in Seventh spot.
They are tipping us to win every game bar against Brisbane and Geelong. So that's 7-2 on the run home.
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Why the top eight is far from set
We’ve predicted every result left in the 2021 season, with a mouth-watering finals series lined up as a result.
By Cameron Kellaghan-Tasker
zerohanger.com
June 21, 2021
Ladder Result
After completing my ladder predictor, it is likely that the top eight is in fact not set. I have the current 9th placed Giants leap frogging their way into the eight at the expense of their cross town rivals Sydney who face a tough run home.
(https://www.zerohanger.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Screen-Shot-2021-06-21-at-3.09.55-pm-696x823.png)
At the completion of the season, there will be some exciting first round matchups to start the 2021 finals series:
Qualifying Final 1: Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne Demons
Qualifying Final 2: Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats
Elimination Final 1: West Coast Eagles vs GWS Giants
Elimination Final 2: Port Adelaide Power vs Richmond Tigers
Full article including round by round prediction summary: https://www.zerohanger.com/why-the-top-eight-is-far-from-set-85600/
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Media running with us having the easiest draw on the run home with 6 of our final 9 games at the MCG.
(http://oneeyed-richmond.com/fixture/RunHome2021.png)
Waits for K.Cornes to have another sook :nopity
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Playing Port in SA or Eagles in WA for an elimination final would be rough. But we've done it before!
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RUN TO FINALS: Tigers primed to charge
Champion Data's analysis of the last nine rounds has a clear message - beware the two-time reigning premiers
By Riley Beveridge
afl.com.au
24 June 2021
With key senior players like Dion Prestia, David Astbury, Tom Lynch and Toby Nankervis on the cusp of returning from injury, the Tigers will also be boosted by the easiest run-in of any side in the competition over the next nine weeks.
According to Champion Data's strength of schedule statistics, Richmond's remaining fixture after its bye week is 7.4 points per game easier than the AFL average – clearly the most routine of any team in the League.
The Tigers play just two top-eight sides for the remainder of the year – Brisbane and Geelong in successive weeks in July – while the reigning premiers also enjoy six of their final nine matches at the MCG.
It's a timely run-in for Richmond, which had its advantage inside the AFL's top eight slashed to just two points by Greater Western Sydney last Saturday night. The Tigers remain two games, plus percentage, from securing a double-chance inside the top four.
HOW HARD IS YOUR TEAM'S RUN HOME?
CLUB FIXTURE DIFFICULTY (R15-23) RANK
Hawthorn +7.0 1
St Kilda +5.4 2
North Melbourne +4.1 3
Gold Coast Suns +3.8 4
GWS Giants +3.5 5
Melbourne +3.4 6
Adelaide Crows +3.3 7
Essendon +0.5 8
Fremantle +0.2 9
Collingwood -0.5 10
West Coast Eagles -0.9 11
Port Adelaide -1.3 12
Sydney Swans -2.7 13
Western Bulldogs -3.1 14
Geelong Cats -3.2 15
Brisbane Lions -5.1 16
Carlton -7.1 17
Richmond -7.4 18
* Ranking indicates hardest-to-easiest.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/634933/run-to-finals-tigers-primed-to-charge-but-who-s-got-it-toughest
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On tonight so far, 2 maybe. Declare it a gap year, sharpen the scalpels, and dive as far as possible. Can't flirt with form when you have none anyway.
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Playing this bad I reckon we have the hardest draw now.
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Year over
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Year over
Looks it yep.
Kissed top 4 goodbye last game.
Just about out of the top 8 now
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Time to play the kids*....
*except Ryan
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Time to play the kids*....
*except Ryan
And Naish
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Tigers may Bradbury their way into eighth: Run Home after Rd 15
Max Laughton
Foxsports
28 June 2021
8. RICHMOND (7-7, 101.5%)
Remaining games:
Round 16: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Round 17: Collingwood at MCG
Round 18: Brisbane at MCG
Round 19: Geelong at MCG
Round 20: Fremantle at Optus Stadium
Round 21: North Melbourne at MCG
Round 22: GWS at Giants Stadium
Round 23: Hawthorn at MCG
Chance of playing finals from current record: 48%
Remaining fixture difficulty: 15th-hardest
Tigers fans should probably be buying up Hawks memberships just to thank them.
Hawthorn’s stunning upset of GWS totally makes up for Richmond’s shock loss to St Kilda, keeping the premiers inside the top eight and much more likely to play finals at all.
Of course, the Tigers aren’t just trying to make the eight. They want to win the whole shebang.
But their top four chances are pretty much gone; in the top eight era, no team has ever made the top four after being three wins out with eight games to play. And as we know, winning the flag from outside the top four is incredibly rare.
It’s likely to be a race to 12 wins if you want to finish eighth, and the Tigers are in the box seat, with a much easier draw than Fremantle - particularly given WA’s Covid situation that could see the Dockers’ upcoming home games moved east.
Round 22 against the Giants and Round 20 against the Dockers will still be crucial, but now if the Tigers just go 5-3, they should make the eight.
But can they win the flag? Jeez, we’re not brave enough to rule them out, but...
PROJECTED FINAL LADDER
1. Melbourne (16.8 projected wins)
2. W.Bulldogs (16.4)
3. Brisbane (15.35)
4. Geelong (15.25)
5. Port Adelaide (14.6)
6. West Coast (12.65)
7. Sydney (12.25)
8. Richmond (11.5)
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9. Fremantle (10.85)
10. GWS Giants (10.25)
11. Essendon (10.2)
12. St Kilda (9.1)
13. Carlton (8.9)
14. Adelaide (8.45)
15. Collingwood (7.55)
16. Gold Coast (6.7)
17. Hawthorn (6.6)
18. North Melb. (4.6)
PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS
First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Melbourne vs Geelong Cats
First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Port Adelaide vs Richmond
Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): West Coast Eagles vs Sydney Swans
Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane Lions
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-the-run-home-after-round-15-predicted-ladder-finals-top-eight-ladder-predictor-finals-predictor-analysis-fixture/news-story/6565374b12957d3a19f87d0c09373e16
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Eighth better than a tracksuit for Tigers
Michael Gleeson
The Age
June 28, 2021
Taking the last spot in the eight is like being the last to qualify for the Olympics. It’s nice, it’s a relief, and you get to be part of the show but probably just means you go home with a tracksuit.
Of course, you hope for more than just a few weeks of rubbing shoulders with the best and the warm knowledge you were good enough to be there at the end, but most of the time you only end up winning a green and gold trackie.
With eight rounds to go, Richmond and Fremantle are now separated by percentage in eighth place. Sydney, a game ahead, should hold their place. They play only two sides above them in the run home but, unsettlingly, with games against Freo, Essendon, GWS and St Kilda to come, they play all four teams other than Richmond who are vying to climb into the eight.
Perhaps more than any other team the Swans will shape who joins them in seventh and eighth place. Sydney’s COVID lockdown, however, changes much about expectations and assumptions for the Swans. They are likely to be in a hub in Melbourne for most of the rest of the season, if not all of it, and their games will be thrown around. At a minimum they now almost certainly won’t play Fremantle in Sydney in what was already a finals-shaping game.
Richmond should be the eighth side. Despite their problems they are also the only side in contention for that final spot that is likely to do anything more than leave September with the proverbial tracksuit. They are highly unlikely to do a Kieren Perkins and come from nowhere but they cannot be discounted.
The Tigers don’t yet have a Hawthorn 2016-17 feel about them but they are approaching that point. They are not as tired as the Hawks in those ‘seasons too far’ but they are trying to work out how they can readjust on the run and keep the momentum during their ‘Dusty Window’.
Noah Balta’s injury is structurally as unsettling as any they could have suffered, especially when it is combined in the same (losing) game with Nathan Broad’s injury. Yes, David Astbury should return but the removal of the two versatile and attacking defenders in Balta and Broad will have a profound impact.
The Tigers have the softest run home of any of the final eight challengers with games against all of the current bottom four teams including Gold Coast, where the wheels have fallen right off, to help soften the blow of their list of injured.
If they win those four games as expected that gets them to 11 wins and in all likelihood that should be enough for eighth place, even allowing for probable losses against Geelong and Brisbane.
They must also play GWS and Freo in the run home.
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/four-points-eighth-better-than-a-tracksuit-for-tigers-saints-honesty-session-harvey-s-tall-order-20210627-p584mp.html
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We might miss out of the eight!
Essendon’s fixture is easy.
If we drop 3 matches we finish 9th.
Must only lose 1-2.
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It is going to be very interesting how we react to the pressure this time around.
Will say a lot to the resilience of this group.
It will also say a lot about Hardwick and his coaching particularly around selection. Does he go with tried and true players like Houli (who should be dropped) and Castagna or start playing some kids.
Lynch & Nank can't come back quick enough just to have their big bodies out there.
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Peter Sumich has us finishing sixth.
1. Western Bulldogs
2. Brisbane
3. Port Adelaide
4. Geelong
5. Melbourne
6. Richmond
“I’ve got Richmond finishing sixth. People wouldn’t want to be writing them off.
“They’re going to win at least six or seven out of the last eight games, I would think.”
7. West Coast
8. Sydney
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/06/30/west-coast-great-predicts-how-the-top-eight-will-finish-come-seasons-end/
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Foxsports has us finishing Ninth.
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AFL Run Home after Rd 16
Max Laughton
Fox Sports
July 4th, 2021 9:23 pm
9. RICHMOND (7-8, 100.6%)
Remaining games
Round 17: Collingwood at MCG
Round 18: Brisbane at MCG
Round 19: Geelong at MCG
Round 20: Fremantle at Optus Stadium
Round 21: North Melbourne at MCG
Round 22: GWS at Giants Stadium
Round 23: Hawthorn at MCG
Chance of playing finals from current record: 21%
Remaining fixture difficulty: 13th-hardest
Two weeks ago we said Richmond had the easiest remaining fixture and should play finals because of it. Then they went and lost two of their easiest games left.
Clearly the Tigers still have the talent to recover, and if any of these teams competing for eighth does make the finals, they’ll be the most feared; but someone (GWS) finally took advantage of their back-to-back lapses and now they must find a way to recover.
It sure looks like 11 wins and a good percentage will be enough to play finals for the first time in a decade. We’d be shocked if a team missed with 12 wins.
So can they finish 4-3 or 5-2? They should be able to beat the Pies, Roos and Hawks. And they probably need to beat the Giants and Dockers just to make sure they finish above them - going 4-3 with a loss to GWS probably won’t work.
On their form across the entire season, the Tigers are good enough. But on their form over the last fortnight, who knows? They cannot afford another slip-up with tricky games against Brisbane and Geelong to come.
St Kilda. Gold Coast. That’s two strikes; three, and you’re out.
Fox Footy’s projection: 10.6 wins, finishing ninth
PROJECTED FINAL LADDER
1. Western Bulldogs (16.65 projected wins)
2. Melbourne (16)
3. Brisbane Lions (15.75)
4. Geelong Cats (15.55)
5. Port Adelaide (15)
6. Sydney Swans (12.75)
7. West Coast Eagles (12.05)
8. GWS Giants (10.95)
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9. Richmond (10.6)
10. Fremantle (10.3)
11. Essendon (10)
12. Carlton (9.55)
PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS
First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Western Bulldogs vs Geelong Cats
First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Port Adelaide vs GWS Giants
Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): Sydney Swans vs West Coast Eagles
Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Melbourne vs Brisbane Lions
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-the-run-home-after-round-16-analysis-predicted-ladder-top-eight-ladder-predictor-afl-finals-fixture/news-story/5aa6d34cbceb904800d8d08e46275b83
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12th now, you would have to think that if the players really apply themselves to the task 14th should be a breeze, 15th eminently possible and 16th at a stretch.
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Foxsports has us finishing 12th with 10 wins.
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12. RICHMOND (7-9, 99.3%)
Remaining games
Round 18: Brisbane at MCG
Round 19: Geelong at MCG
Round 20: Fremantle at Optus Stadium
Round 21: North Melbourne at MCG
Round 22: GWS at Giants Stadium
Round 23: Hawthorn at MCG
Chance of playing finals from current record: 3%
Remaining fixture difficulty: 13th-hardest
It’s still surprising every time we look over the numbers and realise Richmond probably isn’t making the eight. Imagine saying that even three weeks ago! It’s absurd! Richmond?!
But if you lose games against ninth, 14th and 15th with your season on the line, that’s what happens. Suddenly two games against Brisbane and Geelong that were supposed to be ‘well, if they win them maybe they can sneak into the top four’ are ‘they need to win one to play finals’.
There would be the slimmest of paths possible if the Tigers do drop to 7-11, because as we’ve written plenty of times now, 11 wins might be enough to make the eight. They would have to storm home, not just beating but thumping the Dockers, Kangaroos, Giants and Hawks, while hoping no-one else reaches 12 wins (or that GWS reaches 11).
However there has been no indication over the past month that Richmond is good enough to play finals. If you are tipping them to do so, you’re working on faith, and little else.
Fox Footy’s projection: 10 wins, finishing 12th (but as high as eighth on percentage)
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PROJECTED FINAL LADDER
In order of projected wins, not adjusted for percentage
1. Melbourne (16.7 projected wins)
2. Western Bulldogs (15.95)
3. Geelong Cats (15.85)
4. Brisbane Lions (15)
5. Port Adelaide (14.5)
6. Sydney Swans (13.5)
7. West Coast Eagles (10.95)
8. Fremantle (10.8 )
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9. St Kilda (10.5)
10. Essendon (10.35)
11. GWS Giants (10.25)
12. Richmond (10)
13. Carlton (9.1)
14. Gold Coast Suns (8 )
15. Collingwood (7.55)
16. Adelaide Crows (7.4)
17. Hawthorn (6.1)
18. North Melbourne (4.55)
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-the-run-home-after-round-17-analysis-predicted-ladder-top-eight-afl-fixture-finals-ladder-predictor/news-story/b0e8b05d42b89694ea8d57bad33be1b2
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Honestly we should aim to finish 13th or lower. Get a top6 pick and a better fixture for 2022. Have 1 more roll of the dice and then commit to rebuild I guess.
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Every week seems to be one more roll of the dice.
Truth is it actually still is. One game out of the 8 and I really believe we are one win away from a consecutive run of wins.
That said if we can't beat the suns we won't be beating the lions or cats.
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I don't think we could beat North at the moment. Not with what were dishing up.
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Foxsports has us vying with Essendon for 8th spot based on percentage. So they have us finishing 9th.
PROJECTED FINAL LADDER
In order of projected wins, not adjusted for percentage
1. Melbourne (16.45 projected wins)
2. Geelong Cats (16.3)
3. Western Bulldogs (16.25)
4. Port Adelaide (14.95)
5. Brisbane Lions (14.3)
6. Sydney Swans (13.95)
7. West Coast Eagles (11.4)
8. Richmond (10.75)
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9. Essendon (10.65)
10. St Kilda (10.3)
11. Fremantle (10.25)
12. GWS Giants (9.75)
13. Carlton (9.5)
Essendon and Richmond are the leading contenders to finish eighth... so do you trust recent strong form, or three flags in four years?
9. RICHMOND (8-9, 100.8%)
Remaining games
Round 19: Geelong at MCG
Round 20: Fremantle at Optus Stadium
Round 21: North Melbourne at MCG
Round 22: GWS at Giants Stadium
Round 23: Hawthorn at MCG
Chance of playing finals from current record: 21%
Remaining fixture difficulty: 15th-hardest
And suddenly the rest of the top eight felt a chill in the air. The Tigers... they’re coming.
The team no-one wants to play if they sneak into the eight has a real chance of doing so after knocking off Brisbane. Unless Freo or St Kilda really gets on a roll, we think it’s probably between Essendon and Richmond for eighth.
But while the Tigers have an easier draw, we’d just like to see a little bit more before declaring they’re fully back.
For a start, they’re running into a pretty scary-looking Geelong next week... and they won’t have Dustin Martin for the rest of the year, which really hurts - especially against the Cats who never seem to know how to stop him.
Richmond clearly has the stronger track record, but ever since they actually beat Essendon, who’s been the better team? We’d argue Essendon.
If the Tigers are 8-10, and needing an almost flawless month to get to 12 wins and play finals... they can do it. They’ll be favourites in their last four games - but we’ve seen this story before.
Remember when they went from 3-10 to a finals berth in 2014? And faced Port Adelaide in the elimination final? And kicked into the wind, and got blown out because they’d been playing mini-finals every week for two months?
We reckon Port might finish fifth again. So...
Fox Footy’s projection: 10.75 wins, finishing ninth (on percentage)
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-the-run-home-after-round-18-afl-analysis-predicted-ladder-top-eight-afl-fixture-finals-ladder-predictor/news-story/50501c09bbf29c13e6f472ee13fb1f66
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Just half a win separates 8th to 12th with only four rounds to go.
8. GWS 34 96.6 ............. Port (H?), Geel (A), Rich (H?), Carl (A)
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9. Essendon 32 103.4 ............. Syd (H), Dogs (A), GC (A), Coll (H)
10. Richmond 32 98.2 ............. Freo (A), NM (H), GWS (A?), Haw (H)
11. Fremantle 32 90.3 ............. Rich (H), Bris (H), WCE (H), StK (A)
12. St Kilda 32 86.9 .............. Carl (H), Syd (A?), Geel (A), Freo (H)
13. Carlton 28 91.9 .............. StK (A), GC (H), Port (A), GWS (H)
The question is how many can we win on current 'form' and will we make it?
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We have a much easier run than the other teams contending. Would be favs for all remaining games which would almost certainly secure 8th spot but then again we were favs against Collingwood, Gold Coast and the saints…..
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Unfortunately…..I don’t think it matters.
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0
Cotton wool all our senior players for the remainder of the season. Surgeries or whatever now.
Nank. Cotchin. Reiwoldt. Edwards. Prestia. Grimes. Vlaustin. Astbury. Martin. etc
Play the kids! Prepare for next season.
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We have a flag to defend, least we can do is qualify for finals.
Qualify for finals, get 6+ senior players back from injury and who knows. Gotta be in it to win it!
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Richmond's finals chances are hanging by a thread. However, in better news for the reigning premiers, a rather soft run home lies in wait. The club won't face another top-six side for the remainder of the year, though will endure two difficult road trips against Fremantle and Greater Western Sydney. If it can split those – and beat the lowly North Melbourne and Hawthorn on its home deck at the MCG – the Tigers will still be a fighting chance to make September. Never rule them out. - Riley Beveridge
https://www.afl.com.au/news/651474/the-run-home-sore-eagles-stay-alive-can-tigers-pull-off-a-miracle-
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Foxsports has us finishing 8th.
10. RICHMOND (8-10, 98.2%)
Remaining games
Round 20: Fremantle at Optus Stadium
Round 21: North Melbourne at MCG
Round 22: GWS at Giants Stadium
Round 23: Hawthorn at MCG
Chance of playing finals from current record: 8%
Remaining fixture difficulty: Easiest
The Giants could still ruin Richnond’s party in Round 22, but for now, Damien Hardwick must be thrilled.
GWS’ win over Essendon means the Tigers are the favourites to finish eighth. After all, the Giants’ run home is pretty brutal and we expect them to slip up again; it’s much easier for the Tigers to catch them and it would’ve been to catch a victorious Bombers side, who would’ve been a game and percentage ahead.
While none of their remaining games are stone cold locks, we’d either favour the Tigers to win or have them 50-50 in all four. They have the clearest path to 12 wins, and 12 wins will be enough this year, we’re 99 per cent certain of that.
If the Tigers can only win 11, they need to hope the Bombers (to Sydney and the Bulldogs?) and the Giants (to the Tigers and Geelong?) both slip up twice. That seems entirely reasonable.
But losing to Fremantle this week would hurt because that’d keep the Dockers in the mix.
Let’s get that win on the board before locking the Tigers into eighth.
Fox Footy’s projection: 10.35 wins, finishing eighth
PROJECTED FINAL LADDER
In order of projected wins
1. Western Bulldogs (16.75 projected wins)
2. Geelong Cats (16.7)
3. Melbourne (15.95)
4. Port Adelaide (15.25
5. Brisbane Lions (14.6)
6. Sydney Swans (14.4)
7. West Coast Eagles (11.85)
8. Richmond (10.35)
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9. GWS Giants (10.3)
10. Essendon (10)
11. Fremantle (9.85)
12. St Kilda (9.85)
13. Carlton (8.8 )
14. Gold Coast Suns (7.5)
15. Adelaide Crows (7.25)
16. Collingwood (6.75)
17. North Melbourne (6.05)
18. Hawthorn (5.8 )
PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS
First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Western Bulldogs vs Port Adelaide
First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Brisbane Lions vs Richmond
Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): Sydney Swans vs West Coast Eagles
Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Geelong Cats vs Melbourne
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-the-run-home-after-round-19-afl-analysis-predicted-final-ladder-top-eight-fixture-finals-ladder-predictor/news-story/12493de221c1590c2e24c5a354cea895
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10. RICHMOND ..... 32 pts 98.2%
RUN HOME: Fremantle (A), North Melbourne (H), Greater Western Sydney (A), Hawthorn (H)
WE SAY: The Tigers continue to back their system and believe they can do damage in September - should they get there. They won’t face a top-six side again but the Dockers, despite losing key players, will be tough at home and the Kangaroos have rebounded since the bye. The clash against the Giants will be critical. Dustin Martin is gone but there is still enough talent to slip into September.
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/run-home-to-the-afl-finals-the-race-for-the-eight-heats-up-20210727-p58ddy.html
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After tonight's result now only half a win separates 8th to 13th.
8. GWS 34 96.6 ............. Port (N), Geel (A), Rich (H?), Carl (A)
------------------------------
9. Essendon 32 103.4 ............. Syd (N), Dogs (A), GC (A), Coll (H)
10. Richmond 32 98.2 ............. Freo (A), NM (H), GWS (A?), Haw (H)
11. Carlton 32 94.1 .............. StK (A), GC (H), Port (A), GWS (H)
12. Fremantle 32 90.3 ............. Rich (H), Bris (H), WCE (H), StK (A)
13. St Kilda 32 85.9 .............. Carl (H), Syd (A?), Geel (A), Freo (H)
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As long as the Bumblers don't make it I don't care anymore.... :shh
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The way we are playing and the selection of players will see us not win another game this year.
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Can't see us winning another game for the season (beat me too it Machine). The fight, desperation, want and belief just isn't there.
All those teams including the Eagles are just making up the numbers. Should really only be a top 6 this year.
Both WA teams can thank us and our own stupid hackness in the last 10 mins for them both being in the top 8 :banghead.
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We won't win another game they way we are going
And that might be a good thing
We have incredibly strong draft hand
Time to use it, take advantage of it
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With 3 rounds to go:
8. Fremantle 36 90.9 ............. Bris (H), WCE (H), StK (A)
------------------------------
9. GWS 34 95.1 ............. Geel (A), Rich (H?), Carl (A)
10. Essendon 32 102.7 ............. Dogs (A), GC (A), Coll (H)
11. Richmond 32 98.0 ............. NM (H), GWS (A?), Haw (H)
12. Carlton 32 94.1 .............. GC (H), Port (A), GWS (H)
13. St Kilda 32 85.9 .............. Syd (A?), Geel (A), Freo (H)
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We won’t win another game if we do what’s best for our club. Play the kids and see who is worth persevering with.
Finishing 9th will be pointless
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We won’t win another game if we do what’s best for our club. Play the kids and see who is worth persevering with.
Finishing 9th will be pointless
i accept thats your opinion, but its the wrong one. You play to win.
i can accept if we fail whilst playing kids who give their all. What i dont accept is garbage like what we saw tonight esp from the likes of aarts, chol and guess who Ross.
I always give our flag heroes an out, but that doesnt apply to these 3 duds. That is what they are, and i hope all 3 FO to where they came from. In Aarts case i hope he never plays another game for us again. I saw enough of Ross when he was sulking in the stands as your club was about to win a flag.
Astbury well he has been good to us, and vice versa but he is done.
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I didn’t say we don’t play to win, if we can’t win with our best side it will be harder to win with kids in.
This is an opportunity to play some of the kids to see what they have.
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what kids mate?
MRJ should play absolutely, but our kids in the VFL are not going to give us a better chance at winning.
Unfortunately what we have apart from 1 or 2 is the best we got which doesnt look good for the future, when you look at guys like Naish and Ross. I hope im wrong about Dow but he looks like another wasted pick.
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Dow's probably-hopefully- just another slow burner like his brother...has definitely shown glimpses... :shh
RCD, Ralphsmith , Cumberland the only other kids who look to have any AFL traits to me.....though MRJ's tackling alone is an upgrade on half the current senior side....other than the aforementioned I'd probably only persist with Biggie and Ryan and pee off the rest... :shh :shh
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what kids mate?
MRJ should play absolutely, but our kids in the VFL are not going to give us a better chance at winning.
Unfortunately what we have apart from 1 or 2 is the best we got which doesnt look good for the future, when you look at guys like Naish and Ross. I hope im wrong about Dow but he looks like another wasted pick.
Personally I'd be playing anyone that I haven't seen enough of to put a line through yet.
Anybody in their 4th year or onwards and not getting near to senior selection should be gone. Anyone in their 3rd year should be played and we need to decide to keep or cut.
Unknown (for me) due to no evidence:
Miller
Undecided due to not enough sample:
CCJ
Cut:
Aarts
Astbury (finito)
Cotch (finito despite some good moments/games)
Houli
DES
Garth (despite cracking in with our KPDs out)
Naish
Ross
Keep:
Chol (depth only)
RCD
Ralph
Cumberland (too early)
Dow (too early)
Martyn (too early)
Biggie (too early)
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11. Richmond --- 32 points (eight wins, 11 losses), 98.0 per cent
There has been a reluctance to write off the Tigers, despite six losses in their past seven games, but they are no longer in control of their finals chances. The back-to-back premiers need to win every game from here and hope 11 wins is enough to play finals, with their percentage a little healthier than some rivals for eighth spot. A rather soft run home awaits from here, with the round 21 match against Greater Western Sydney followed by clashes against North Melbourne and Hawthorn at the MCG. They won't be ruled out until it is mathematically impossible, but that point is getting dangerously close. - Nathan Schmook
https://www.afl.com.au/news/655316/the-run-home-swans-might-not-lose-again-blues-won-t-go-away
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- West Coast is on 10 wins but not safe, with the Western Derby in Round 22 likely serving as a mini-final;
- Fremantle controls its destiny but has a tough next fortnight... importantly it’s a lot easier for them to get to 11 wins from here, since they’re the only side on nine;
- GWS, Essendon, Richmond and Carlton aren’t out of it, but need to win two of their next three at a bare minimum, while St Kilda probably has to go 3-0... but it’s crazy that these teams are still in the mix given their records in the first place.
11. RICHMOND (8-11, 98%)
Remaining games
Round 21: North Melbourne at MCG
Round 22: GWS at Giants Stadium*
Round 23: Hawthorn at MCG
Chance of playing finals from current record: 0% (reminder: on historic results only)
Remaining fixture difficulty: 17th-hardest
It’s absurd that an 8-11 team that has lost six of its last seven games can still play finals... but Richmond can.
But they have to start actually, you know, winning. On paper they should beat the Kangaroos and Hawks - though if you watched all three teams on the weekend you might not think so - and the Giants game is close to a 50-50.
Look at all the teams around them. They’re all flawed and/or have tricky draws. If the Tigers just go 3-0 from here, they’re still a pretty good chance of playing finals.
Fox Footy’s projection: 9.8 wins, finishing ninth
------------------------------------------------------------------
PROJECTED FINAL LADDER
In order of projected wins only
1. Western Bulldogs (17 projected wins)
2. Geelong Cats (17)
3. Melbourne (16.25)
4. Port Adelaide (15.75)
5. Sydney Swans (14.85)
6. Brisbane Lions (13.95)
7. West Coast Eagles (11.2)
8. Fremantle (10.4)
--------------------------
9. Richmond (9.8)
10. GWS Giants (9.8)
11. Carlton (9.7)
12. Essendon (9.55)
13. St Kilda (9.25)
14. Collingwood (7.3)
15. Gold Coast Suns (7.2)
16. Adelaide Crows (6.95)
17. Hawthorn (6.5)
18. North Melbourne (5.85)
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-the-run-home-after-round-20-afl-analysis-predicted-final-ladder-top-eight-finals-fixture-ladder-predictor/news-story/c90c6c1d860db5d01227bab39a3123c3
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Right now, we're the worst team in the comp. Will need a dramatic improvement if we are to go 3-0 from here.
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Six clubs have three weeks to scramble for one finals spot. This is the bold verdict on who makes it
Ben Cotton
Fox Sports
August 3rd, 2021
The race towards finals is heating up with just three rounds remaining in one of the most open AFL seasons in recent memory and eighth position well and truly up for grabs.
Several teams have rotated through the last spot in the top eight all season. Now six clubs remain in contention to claim it: Fremantle, GWS, Essendon, Richmond, Carlton and St Kilda.
All of those teams featured in Saints great Leigh Montagna’s ‘seven seducers’ on Fox Footy’s First Crack's teams that keep “sucking us in” and “letting us down”.
At times, it’s felt like these sides haven’t wanted to feature in September, failing to take their opportunities to either claim or a cement a spot in the top eight when they’ve come.
But it’s made for a thrilling run home as fans will be treated to mini US-sports style ‘wildcard’ stretch to determine the last spot in the top eight.
Asked which team would claim the final spot, triple premiership Lion Jonathan Brown told Fox Footy’s On The Couch: “I think Richmond will. I think they win those three games (against the Kangaroos, Giants and Hawks).”
On the Tigers, St Kilda legend Nick Riewoldt added: “Call it blind faith, but their turnover game is still really strong. It’s the one thing that’s stood them in great stead and it hasn’t abandoned them. Over the next three weeks, they’ll get all of Vlastuin, McIntosh, Houli and Broad back and maybe Balta.”
Foxfooty.com.au has ranked the prospects of the six clubs battling it out for eighth position and assesses who really deserves it.
1. RICHMOND (11th, 97%)
As disappointing as they’ve been in recent weeks, it’s hard to go past backing the reigning premiers as the most deserving team to finish eighth. This is a club that not long ago was still considered one of the premiership favourites, but the wheels have since fallen off and fallen off badly. Injuries to several stars including Dustin Martin, Noah Balta, Nathan Broad, Bachar Houli, Nick Vlastuin and other key players throughout stages have been significant blows, while they appear to have lacked the same hunger and intensity from recent seasons. Working in their favour is a favourable run home where they play North Melbourne (home), GWS (away) and Hawthorn (home).
2. GWS GIANTS (9th, 95.1%)
3. ESSENDON (10th, 102.7%)
4. FREMANTLE (8th, 90.9%)
5. CARLTON (12th, 94.1%)
6. ST KILDA (13th, 85.9%)
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/teams/richmond-tigers/afl-news-2021-ranking-the-six-clubs-competing-for-eighth-spot-finalists-who-is-going-to-make-the-top-eight-chances-september/news-story/debbb48eeba2599591ed96230ddae36d
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West Coast are far from safe
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Two into seven? McGuane rates every finals contender
Seven clubs are vying for two finals spots. Footy analyst Mick McGuane examines each team, names the players who need to lift and declares who’s best placed to snare a top eight spot.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/mick-mcguanes-ultimate-deep-dive-into-the-seven-clubs-all-pushing-to-play-finals/news-story/3b0b50f1803a2f32a4b701e28263f420
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Midway Round 21:
8. GWS 38 96.4 ............. Rich (H?), Carl (A)
------------------------------
9. Richmond 36 100.1 ............. GWS (A?), Haw (H)
10. Fremantle 36 90.9 ............. Bris (H), WCE (H), StK (A)
11. St Kilda 36 88.2 .............. Geel (A), Freo (H)
12. Essendon 32 102.7 ............. Dogs (A), GC (A?), Coll (H)
13. Carlton 32 93.3
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These run home things should really have west coast included. Their form is just as bad as ours. If they lose to Melbourne on Monday then their spot is very much up for grabs.
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These run home things should really have west coast included. Their form is just as bad as ours. If they lose to Melbourne on Monday then their spot is very much up for grabs.
That's what I'm waiting for. If the Eagles lose then I'll add them in as they'll only be one win ahead but with an inferior percentage to us.
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At the end of the day if we lose against gws, our season can only be saved if eagles lose both their games and we take that spot. Eagles play freo in the last round as well, and we need lions to beat freo which I’m not convinced about.
If we beat gws we play finals- simple
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If essendon keep winning then we're relying on wcoke to fall out.
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Bulldogs wasting so many forward entries. Bombers look like blowing them away here.
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Doggies pressure not good enough to win it. They get heap's of it but so do their opponents.
Bombers by 9
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Most interesting up in the air ladder for years. Top 4 or 5 barely a couple of games between them
, Middlle tier only a game or two between them too. It really hasnt spread out at all this year.
Any one or two of 4 teams outside the 8 could still make it and giants and west coast could still drop out. Fantastic fun to watch the permutations.
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18 up now, bombers home.
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At the end of the day if we lose against gws, our season can only be saved if eagles lose both their games and we take that spot. Eagles play freo in the last round as well, and we need lions to beat freo which I’m not convinced about.
If we beat gws we play finals- simple
You still have to beat hawthorn coming off two and a half wins of their last 5. They aren't playing crap the last month.
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Freo Brisbane looms as a huge match now as to who plays finals and maybe the top 4
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Bumblers ain't losing to Fold Coast & The Filth....should tank against GWS just to keep the pricks out.... :thumbsdown
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Bumblers ain't losing to Fold Coast & The Filth....should tank against GWS just to keep the pricks out.... :thumbsdown
They could lose both of those quite easily.
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if dees beat the eagles monday then tiges and bombers most likely (assuming we beat gws and hawks). i'd rather push wcoast out than keep essendon out. dropping that game against wcoast was i recon the worst thing we've done this year.
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The worst thing we’ve done this year is playing shocking football for at least half of every game, and Putting ourselves in this position
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Brisbane up 66-21 on Freo at half-time.
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The worst thing we’ve done this year is playing shocking football for at least half of every game, and Putting ourselves in this position
Hardwick's stubbornness at the selection table saw us playing 2 blokes short most of the year....and sometimes even 3-4 blokes short.... :shh
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Equation to make the 8 is very simple
First is win both
And
Eagles to lose two (playing Melbourne, Fremantle and Brisbane, huge chance)
Or
Essendon to lose one (playing GC and Pies, so unlikely)
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Updated with one game to go in round 21.
7. West Coast 40 95.9 ............. Melb (H), Freo (A), Bris (A)
8. GWS 38 96.4 ............. Rich (H?), Carl (A)
------------------------------
9. Essendon 36 103.4 ............. GC (A?), Coll (H) ............ Dons are +55 net pts ahead of us.
10. Richmond 36 100.1 ............. GWS (A?), Haw (H)
11. St Kilda 36 88.2 .............. Geel (A), Freo (H)
12. Fremantle 36 87.7 ............. WCE (H), StK (A)
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Cats and Dogs crapping the bed hasn't helped at all
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its all over this year amigos
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its all over this year amigos
If we win our last two we should make the 8
Delaying the inevitable, but it will be a great experience for some of the non premiership Tigers
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No don’t think we will Damo even if we do win both.
Druggos with their tails up will win both and beat us on %. Freo are finished.
We could beat gws, and then lose 8th spot by giving it to the druggos.
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We need Melbourne to beat WC.
WC on 10 wins and have Fremantle and Brisbane.
If we win next 2 and WC only win 1 we will take WC’s place in the 8.
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We need Melbourne to beat WC.
WC on 10 wins and have Fremantle and Brisbane.
If we win next 2 and WC only win 1 we will take WC’s place in the 8.
Correct
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No don’t think we will Damo even if we do win both.
Druggos with their tails up will win both and beat us on %. Freo are finished.
We could beat gws, and then lose 8th spot by giving it to the druggos.
Yep... Need Dons to crap the bed. Shame that the dogs already did.
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TBH the Trade & Draft threads are the only ones of of any real interest to me at this point, probably been the case since the loss to Fold Coast....:shh
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Yes we have to win
But
We are now relying on other results to fall our way to make it.
Shouldn't be like that.
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Melbourne doing everything they can to drop this one.
Umpiring is so pro west coast it's incredible. 11-4 last I checked
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Melbourne doing everything they can to drop this one.
Umpiring is so pro west coast it's incredible. 11-4 last I checked
Yep. Eagles have an extra 3 on the field when they play in Perth. Geez, I wonder why they win at home and struggle away - NOT! ::).
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Lightning has stopped play in this game.
What happens if it doesn't finish. Probably 2 points each and we miss finals.
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They're coming back on... Melbourne would've got the win because it was after half-time.... :shh
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Take your pick of any game of any game we’ve thrown away this year.
Horrid performance and we get what we deserve.
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It took a match we weren't actually playing in for the umpires to finally help us out... :shh
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Just a 59:29 long quarter lol.
Ending was similar to our game against the Eagles but Melbourne had a bigger lead to defend and so hung on. I bet if a Richmond defender did what Petty did to hold up Darling it would've been an instant 50.
Anyway, two spots in the Eight now open. We've just got to focus on winning anyway anyhow on Friday night otherwise it doesn't matter what the other teams around us do.
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Updated: Two rounds to go:
7. West Coast 40 95.5 ............. Freo (A), Bris (A)
8. GWS 38 96.4 ............. Rich (N), Carl (A)
------------------------------
9. Essendon 36 103.4 ............. GC (A?), Coll (H) ............ Dons are +55 net pts ahead of us.
10. Richmond 36 100.1 ............. GWS (N), Haw (H)
11. St Kilda 36 88.2 .............. Geel (A), Freo (H)
12. Fremantle 36 87.7 ............. WCE (H), StK (A)
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Foxsports has us finishing 9th expecting us to lose to the Giants. They have GWS and Essendon making it.
--------------------------------------------
10. RICHMOND (9-11, 100.1%)
To play: GWS at Marvel Stadium, Hawthorn at the MCG
What’s their easiest path to the eight? Win both games while West Coast or Essendon loses once
Best case: Finish 7th if they win both games, West Coast loses once and they either pass Essendon on percentage or Essendon loses once
Worst case: Miss finals
Analysis: The Tigers almost control their own fate but not quite, because of the percentage gap between themselves and the Bombers. However if they win both of their games, they seem very likely to make the eight. If they lose to GWS it’s a hell of a lot tougher; they’d need to beat Hawthorn while both West Coast and Essendon go 0-2 (and Fremantle loses to St Kilda in R23 while St Kilda loses to Geelong in R22). So basically, they need to beat the Giants.
Our prediction: Finish 9th
PREDICTED FINAL LADDER
1. Western Bulldogs (17-5)
2. Geelong Cats (17-5)
3. Melbourne (16-5-1)
4. Port Adelaide (16-6)
5. Brisbane Lions (15-7)
6. Sydney Swans (15-7)
7. GWS Giants (11-10-1)
8. Essendon (11-11)
-------------------------
9. Richmond (10-12)
10. West Coast Eagles (10-12)
11. Fremantle (10-12)
12. St Kilda (10-12)
13. Carlton (8-14)
14. Gold Coast Suns (7-15)
15. Hawthorn (6-15-1)
16. Collingwood (6-16)
17. Adelaide Crows (6-16)
18. North Melbourne (5-16-1)
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-finals-2021-the-run-home-after-round-21-ladder-predictor-top-eight-what-each-team-needs-to-play-finals/news-story/f64090826a506c3d99da07650af20a87
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Massive logjam from 7th to 12th and none really deserve to make it. Essendon have probably been the best of the lot post bye.
Could easily make it and could easily drop out. Too tight to call.
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SE Queensland opening up again to sporting crowds. So Essendon will now likely have to head up to Metricon to play the Suns.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2021-round-22-fixture-games-times-dates-venues-covid19-cases-border-restrictions/news-story/53758deb179f2639cf0ac885aaa446a0
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Saints lost. We're still alive :snidegrin.