One-Eyed Richmond Forum
Football => Richmond Rant => Topic started by: one-eyed on December 07, 2024, 03:28:05 AM
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AFL Round 1
RICHMOND vs Carlton
Thursday, 13th March @ the M.C.G.
Start time: 7:30 pm
https://www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/6972
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Every AFL club’s predicted Round 1 side
Jack Jovanovski, Will Faulkner and Dylan Bolch
Fox Sports
December 6th, 2024
RICHMOND
B: N.Broad B.Miller N.Vlastuin
HB: T.Brown J.Gibcus J.Short
C: H.Ralphsmith J.Hopper J.Ross
HF: R.Mansell N.Balta S.Lalor
F: H. Armstrong T.Lynch M.Rioli
FOLL: T.Nankervis T.Taranto D.Prestia
I/C: S.Banks, K.McAuliffe, J.Bauer, S.Campbell, J.Smillie
EMG: S. Green, J. Blight, J. Faull
How many, if any, of Richmond’s seven first-round selections make their way into Adem Yze’s Round 1 side? To start, we believe it’ll be Sam Lalor and Josh Smillie. Lalor was a force as a forward for Vic Country this year, so while he probably won’t be a full-time midfielder straight away, he should be able to impact forward of the ball. Similarly, Smillie is too talented to leave out and should be able to have an instant impact at the top level. You’d imagine at least one of Harry Armstrong and Jonty Faull will also feature early on given Mykelti Lefau is still recovering from an ACL injury. Six regular starters - Dustin Martin, Dylan Grimes, Daniel Rioli, Liam Baker, Jack Graham and Shai Bolton - have all moved on, which means there are plenty of places up for grabs. The likes of Steely Green, Luke Trainor and Jasper Alger are others who will feature in 2025.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2024-predicting-every-clubs-2025-opening-round-and-round-1-lineups-teams-analysis-opinion-latest-news/news-story/b271f67b0c99f960c2e797472dd85e44
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Hopefully Gibcus is ready for round 1
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2028
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Every AFL club’s predicted Round 1 side
Dylan Bolch, Jack Jovanovski, Will Faulkner and Ben Waterworth
Fox Sports
February 11th, 2025
RICHMOND
B: N.Broad B.Miller N.Vlastuin
HB: T.Brown J.Blight J.Short
C: H.Ralphsmith J.Hopper S.Banks
HF: R.Mansell J.Bauer S.Lalor
F: S.Campbell T.Lynch M.Rioli
R: T.Nankervis T.Taranto D.Prestia
Int: J.Ross S.Green S.Ryan J.Koschitzke K.McIntosh
EMG: K.Smith T.Dow L.Fawcett
With key defender Noah Balta suspended four games to open the season after pleading guilty to assault following an incident in December and the luckless Josh Gibcus still sidelined, Jacob Blight slots into defence next to Ben Miller, with swingman Jacob Koschitzke’s lively pre-season earning him a spot in the side to begin the season.
Spearhead Tom Lynch should be right to go for Round 1 provided he checks all boxes in his return from a bout of concussion, and Jacob Bauer and Samson Ryan, when he rests forward, seem likeliest to join him in leading the attack.
Draftees Josh Smillie and Jasper Alger are on modified programs and may miss the start of the season, but No.1 pick Sam Lalor is raring to go and appears a near certainty to earn a league debut straight away.
The ACL quintet of Judson Clarke, Mykelti Lefau, Tylar Young, Josh Gibcus and draftee Taj Hotton remain some way off, but Clarke is said to be the closest of the lot to a return.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2025-predicted-round-1-sides-and-best-23s-lineups-injuries-suspensions-position-changes-latest-news-updates/news-story/1697b5dbb7aa9cf167b62caab7a004db
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Charlie Curnow potentially could miss round 1.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/1269800/carlton-blues-superstar-charlie-curnow-undergoes-minor-knee-surgery-round-one-still-in-sights
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Tasmanian rebounder Sam Banks and premiership veteran Kamdyn McIntosh appear likely to assume wing roles to start the season.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-injuries-2025-cody-weightman-knee-surgery-western-bulldogs-sam-lalor-concussion-protocols-richmond-tigers-latest-preseason-news/news-story/31a0a50934c1bc266d73175c939e48b2
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Predicted Round 1 sides after match sims
Dylan Bolch, Jack Jovanovski, Will Faulkner and Ben Waterworth
Fox Sports
February 19th, 2025
RICHMOND
B: N.Broad B.Miller N.Vlastuin
HB: T.Brown J.Blight J.Short
C: K.McIntosh J.Hopper S.Banks
HF: R.Mansell J.Bauer S.Lalor
F: S.Campbell T.Lynch M.Rioli
R: T.Nankervis T.Taranto D.Prestia
I/C: J.Ross, S.Green, S.Ryan, J.Koschitzke, J.Smillie
EMG: K.Smith, T.Dow, L.Fawcett
With key defender Noah Balta suspended four games to open the season after pleading guilty to assault following an incident in December and the luckless Josh Gibcus still sidelined, Jacob Blight slots into defence next to Ben Miller, with swingman Jacob Koschitzke’s lively pre-season earning him a spot in the side to begin the season.
Winger Hugo Ralphsmith has been ruled out of the early rounds of the 2025 AFL season after picking up a hamstring injury in Richmond’s match simulation, while Tom Brown also isn’t a certainty as he works his way back from a shoulder injury.
Spearhead Tom Lynch should be right to go for Round 1 provided he checks all boxes in his return from a bout of concussion, and Jacob Bauer and Samson Ryan, when he rests forward, seem likeliest to join him in leading the attack.
No. 1 pick Sam Lalor starred against the Eagles in match simulation with two goals before copping a nasty blow late. He was left with a hairline fracture of his jaw, but the Tigers remain hopeful he’ll be fit to face the Blues. If so, Lalor appears a near certainty to play in Round 1, but key forward duo Harry Armstrong and Tom Sims might be some time away from a debut.
Josh Smillie, who “hadn’t missed a beat” pre-Christmas, is targeting the Collingwood pre-season clash after dealing with a minor hamstring problem.
The ACL quintet of Judson Clarke, Mykelti Lefau, Tylar Young, Josh Gibcus and draftee Taj Hotton remain some way off, but Clarke is said to be the closest of the lot to a return.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2025-predicted-round-1-sides-and-best-23s-lineups-injuries-suspensions-position-changes-latest-news-updates/news-story/1697b5dbb7aa9cf167b62caab7a004db
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Jagga Smith won’t be making his debut against us . Poor kid has done his ACL . You don’t wish this on anyone .
https://7news.com.au/sport/afl/carlton-draftee-jagga-smiths-first-year-flipped-upside-down-after-scan-confirms-shocking-acl-injury-c-17821441.amp
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Don’t know about Bauer as the second tall.
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Jagga Smith won’t be making his debut against us . Poor kid has done his ACL . You don’t wish this on anyone .
https://7news.com.au/sport/afl/carlton-draftee-jagga-smiths-first-year-flipped-upside-down-after-scan-confirms-shocking-acl-injury-c-17821441.amp
Probably will
Just not this year
Regardless, he’s built like a stick .. a year in the gym might be a blessing in disguise
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We're going to get so mauled this year lmao
Sucks about Jagga
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I think Samson will be trailed, wasted, gifted and opportunity at the start of the season to show his worth. If/when that fails will be pathway for Faull, Armstrong Fawcett to be tried.
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I think Samson will be trailed, wasted, gifted and opportunity at the start of the season to show his worth. If/when that fails will be pathway for Faull, Armstrong Fawcett to be tried.
Bloody Samson....his body language is so poor. The head drop and flappy arms in the praccy was horrid. Not a good look. Hopefully the Cubs can take his spot early on.
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I think Samson will be trailed, wasted, gifted and opportunity at the start of the season to show his worth. If/when that fails will be pathway for Faull, Armstrong Fawcett to be tried.
Bloody Samson....his body language is so poor. The head drop and flappy arms in the praccy was horrid. Not a good look. Hopefully the Cubs can take his spot early on.
Still take skinny too. Pathetic
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RICHMOND
B: N.Broad, B.Miller, N.Vlastuin
HB: T.Brown, J.Blight, J.Short
C: K.McIntosh, J.Hopper, S.Banks
HF: R.Mansell, J.Bauer, S.Lalor
F: S.Campbell, T.Lynch, M.Rioli
FOLL: T.Nankervis, T.Taranto, J.Ross
I/C: T.Dow, K.Smith, S.Ryan, J.Koschitzke, J.Smillie
EMG: S.Green, L.Fawcett, T.Sonsie
The fresh news is that triple premiership star Dion Prestia will likely “miss the early rounds of the season” due to an Achilles issue that flared up at training last week..Therefore we’ve moved Jack Ross from the bench into the starting midfield, with Thomson Dow getting a gig on the bench after an impressive match sim performance against the Eagles.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2025-predicted-round-1-sides-and-best-23s-lineups-injuries-suspensions-position-changes-latest-news-updates/news-story/1697b5dbb7aa9cf167b62caab7a004db
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RD 1 ALERT! GA members must upgrade via Ticketek as there is no scan-in/standing room access. UPGRADE NOW:
Source: RFC text message.
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RD 1 ALERT! GA members must upgrade via Ticketek as there is no scan-in/standing room access. UPGRADE NOW:
Source: RFC text message.
Yep the AFL have deemed it a fully ticketed game
No walk ups
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Could change but right now this is my round 1 saide
B: Vlastuin, Blight, Trainor
HB: Short, Broad, Brown
C: Trezise, Hopper, Banks
F: Nank, Taranto, Ross
HF: Mansell, Bauer, Lalor
FF: MRJ, Lynch, Campbell
I/C: McIntosh, Sonsie, Armstrong, McAuliffe.
SUB: Green
EMG: Dow, Kozi, Smith
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Just watched the match sim video
It would appear those playing for the black team are those most likely for round 1
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Just watched the match sim video
It would appear those p.ayong for the black team are those most likely for round 1
A summary from the training thread.
Going by the vision/pics:
Blacks:
Banks, Bauer, Blight, Broad, Brown, Campbell, Dow, Lalor, Hopper, Mansell, McIntosh, Miller, Nankervis, Ross, Ryan, Short, Taranto, Trainor, Trezise, Vlastuin
Yellows:
Alger, Balta, Colina, Faull, Fawcett, Gray, Green, Hayes-Brown, Hotton, Koschitzke, McAuliffe, Rioli, Sims, Smith
Played for both teams:
Armstrong, Sonsie.
https://oneeyed-richmond.com/forum/index.php?topic=2565.msg785996#msg785996
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Dow still getting games - lmao....Dow still getting games ahead of Mcauliffe.... :propeller
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Dow still getting games - lmao....Dow still getting games ahead of Mcauliffe.... :propeller
How many years has it been since Dow has been playing?
Makes me question whether head coach and match committee have a clue. :help
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The four Tigers in line for blockbuster debut
No. 1 draft pick Sam Lalor only needs to tick one more box to play in Thursday’s season opener against the Blues – and he definitely won’t be the only new face.
Paywall: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/news/all-the-afl-selection-news-ahead-of-round-1/news-story/5927c5ae7e12fc2eda08d2c8d92d8701
Up to 4 Tiger debutants on Thursday night.
Trainor a certainty.
Lalor just needs to get through Monday.
Sims and Armstrong a chance.
Fawcett mentioned by Yze but less likely.
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Personally I think it will be 3
Lalor, Trainor and either Armstrong or Simms. I'd go Armstrong.
Based 0n what I saw today, Lalor is a lock
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Could change but right now this is my round 1 saide
B: Vlastuin, Blight, Trainor
HB: Short, Broad, Brown
C: Trezise, Hopper, Banks
F: Nank, Taranto, Ross
HF: Mansell, Bauer, Lalor
FF: MRJ, Lynch, Campbell
I/C: McIntosh, Sonsie, Armstrong, McAuliffe.
SUB: Green
EMG: Dow, Kozi, Smith
That's the 23 I would go with too, WP.
However, Yze could still play Dow ahead of McAuliffe and even Miller ahead of one of the tall cubs :P.
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Not that it will matter but Curnow has been ruled out for Thursday
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Could change but right now this is my round 1 saide
B: Vlastuin, Blight, Trainor
HB: Short, Broad, Brown
C: Trezise, Hopper, Banks
F: Nank, Taranto, Ross
HF: Mansell, Bauer, Lalor
FF: MRJ, Lynch, Campbell
I/C: McIntosh, Sonsie, Armstrong, McAuliffe.
SUB: Green
EMG: Dow, Kozi, Smith
That's the 23 I would go with too, WP.
However, Yze could still play Dow ahead of McAuliffe and even Miller ahead of one of the tall cubs :P.
As I said, it's my tea, , doubt it will the round 1 siide
I expect Miller to play. Considered a senior player these days :help. After his efforts against Collingwood IMHO Miller doesn't deserve to get selected but no doubt he will
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Five debuts on cards for Tigers — AFL Team Whispers
Will Faulkner, Ben Waterworth, Jack Jovanovski and Ben Cotton
Fox Sports
March 10th, 2025
Richmond could have up to five debutants — including four draftees — for next Thursday night’s Round 1 clash against Carlton with No. 1 pick Sam Lalor set to prove his fitness at a main training session on Monday.
Lalor reportedly moved well in Thursday’s match simulation, though wasn’t able to be tackled given he was in the non-contact cap as he recovers from a hairline jaw fracture, according to Seven’s Mitch Cleary.
Still, the teenager, who’s lost a few kilos and is still unable to chew food, will get a key opportunity on Monday to prove he’s ready to go for Round 1.
No. 21 draft pick Luke Trainor is also expected to face the Blues, while Pick 28 Thomas Sims and Pick 23 Harry Armstrong are in the mix but less likely. Sims and Armstrong in match simulation played in the yellow ‘possibles’ side against the black ‘probables’ side.
Liam Fawcett, Richmond’s No. 43 pick in 2023, is also reportedly a chance to make his debut.
Carlton fans will get its first look at one its new father-son guns as early as Round 1, with Lucas Camporeale to make his AFL debut against Richmond.
Voss also confirmed All-Australian defender Nick Haynes, who joined the Blues via free agency last year after 13 seasons at the Giants, would also play his first game for Carlton.
But the Blues will be without star forward Charlie Curnow as he continues his recovery from knee surgery, with Voss confirming the news to fans at open training on Sunday.
Sam Walsh is expected to face Richmond as the gun midfielder hopes to overcome a hamstring strain and Mitch McGovern is a certain starter after suffering an ankle injury in last week’s pre-season match against the GWS Giants.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2025-opening-round-report-card-highlights-every-club-reviewed-and-graded-best-and-worst-players-stats-latest-news/news-story/f8828aaf801c6c27c55573c4d956ce09?recommendedCount=0
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Lalor, Armstrong & Trainor look set to debut.
All 3 boys trained with the ‘A’ side today.
Lalor full contact.
Lynch & Maurice sound like they are ready to go as well.
Hopefully we get some official announcements later today!
https://x.com/RFC_Centre/status/1898938166905807257
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No.1 pick Sam Lalor completed today’s entire Richmond main session.
Didn’t require the non-contact cap and was in full tackling + match sim.
Can’t have done more to lock in a debut v Carlton.
Fellow draftees Luke Trainor (pick 21) + Harry Armstrong (23) joined him in the A side
https://x.com/cleary_mitch/status/1898934399590179277
Cripps needs to line him up. Get that jaw of his.
https://x.com/BT088601/status/1898934654524166173
Stay classy bluebaggers ::)
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https://www.richmondfc.com.au/news/1728279/lalor-armstrong-and-trainor-to-debut-in-round-1
:clapping :gotigers :clapping
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Good start.
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Last time Richmond debuted three [first game] players in a R1 match was way back in 2011 - Brad Helbig, Jake Batchelor and Reece Conca.
https://x.com/cleary_mitch/status/1898985988103225517
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I think we will see something like
Short Blight Trainor
Vlastuin Miller Broad
Trezise Hopper Dow
Lalor Armstrong Mansell
Bauer Lynch Campbell
Nank Taranto Ross
I/C Kmac Brown Banks Green
It’s not bad. There’s good youth. My main problem is the midfield… just so meh and unexciting, one paced. No X factor. This will develop with smillie, Lalor and Hotton over the years but for the meantime it’s dull
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Prized top pick Sam Lalor will be one of three Richmond debutants against Carlton on Thursday night. Chief Football Reporter
@cleary_mitch has the details.
VIDEO: https://x.com/7NewsMelbourne/status/1899011900773658955
Cleary reckons the crowd will be 75k.
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Excited for Thursday. Gonna be a fisting for the ages.
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Prized top pick Sam Lalor will be one of three Richmond debutants against Carlton on Thursday night. Chief Football Reporter
@cleary_mitch has the details.
VIDEO: https://x.com/7NewsMelbourne/status/1899011900773658955
Cleary reckons the crowd will be 75k.
https://x.com/Richmond_FC/status/1898999766681596390
Officially announced by the club. Maybe some more will be announced prior to the bounce but 3 debutants is enough reason to look forward to Thursday. Good luck to the young fellas :cheers
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Excited for Thursday. Gonna be a fisting for the ages.
No lube
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Let's hold each others ankles and support each other this year boys
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Let's hold each others ankles and support each other this year boys
:lol
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Let's hold each others ankles and support each other this year boys
:lol
:lol :lol
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Hopefully none of the debutants start as sub 🤞
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https://www.richmondfc.com.au/video/1728465/tiger-trio-call-their-loved-ones?videoId=1728465&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1741660200001
:shh :shh :shh
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Let's hold each others ankles and support each other this year boys
Yeah but what about the footy? :shh
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EIijah Hollands ruled out for personal leave.
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does he play for us or carlton
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Hopefully none of the debutants start as sub 🤞
Omg this would be the worst fmd
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Team Tips
Jack Jovanovski, Will Faulkner, Ben Cotton and Ben Waterworth
Fox Sports
March 11th, 2025
Richmond’s predicted Round 1 team
B: N.Broad, B.Miller, N.Vlastuin
HB: T.Brown, J.Blight, J.Short
C: K.McIntosh, J.Hopper, S.Banks
HF: T.Sonsie, J.Bauer, S.Lalor
F: S.Campbell, T.Lynch, R.Mansell
FOLL: T.Nankervis, T.Taranto, J.Ross
I/C: T.Dow, L.Trainor, H.Armstrong, J.Trezise, M.Rioli
EMG: L.Fawcett, S.Ryan, K.McAuliffe
Team Tips:
No.1 draft pick Sam Lalor will be one of three Richmond debutants on Thursday night, having proven himself fit for selection after overcoming a concussion and broken jaw in a match simulation against West Coast a few weeks back.
Joining Lalor in making their first AFL appearances against Carlton will be defender Luke Trainor and key forward Harry Armstrong.
Trainor, the No.21 draft pick, has intercepting potential but is also a precise ball-user, while Armstrong, Pick 23, figures to provide key-position support next to Tom Lynch and mid-sized option Jacob Bauer.
It’s the first time Richmond has debuted three players in Round 1 since 2011 when it was Brad Helbig, Jake Batchelor and Reece Conca.
Fellow top draftee Josh Smillie (hamstring), however, won’t be available to start the year, while veteran midfielder Dion Prestia (Achilles) is also sidelined.
Second-year key forward Liam Fawcett seems poised for an early-season debut, but it is unlikely to come as early as against the Blues after confirmation of Armstrong’s selection.
Fifth-year tall Samson Ryan will also put his hand up as the second ruckman to skipper Toby Nankervis.
With Hugo Ralphsmith hamstrung, James Trezise could line up on a wing, with veteran Kamdyn McIntosh potentially set to be part of the inside midfield rotation.
Carlton’s predicted Round 1 team
B: A.Saad, J.Weitering, J.Boyd
HB: N.Haynes, M.McGovern, O.Hollands
C: B.Acres, P.Cripps, S.Docherty
HF: G.Hewett, H.McKay, M.Cottrell
F: Z.Williams, B.Kemp, J.Motlop
FOLL: T.De Koning, A.Cerra, S.Walsh
I/C: L.Cowan, J.Silvagni, C.Lord, L.Camporeale, L.Fogarty
EMG: J.Binns, H.Lemmey, M.Carroll
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2025-round-1-team-tips-predicted-sides-and-squads-ins-and-outs-team-changes-injuries-latest-team-news/news-story/ce45d1f89bae8d80b688987661e3fa53
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NO LATE CHANGES
SUBSTITUTES
Richmond: Tyler Sonsie
Carlton: Sam Docherty
https://www.afl.com.au/news/1277104/richmond-tigers-v-carlton-blues-afl-round-one-follow-it-live
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Richmond v Carlton Preview
Nic Negrepontis
SEN
13 March 2025
No Dustin Martin, no Dylan Grimes, no Liam Baker, no Shai Bolton, no Daniel Rioli, no Jack Graham, six premiership players out there, numerous key players including Noah Balta, Josh Gibcus, Dion Prestia and Josh Smillie unavailable … can this Richmond team compete? Let’s find out!
The Tigers enter a new era on Thursday night, as they blood No.1 draft pick Sam Lalor and fellow first-round picks Harry Armstrong and Luke Trainor, but on paper they seem a million miles away from the rest of the competition.
They come up against a Carlton team that looks like a total wildcard this year. Are they contenders? Have they missed their window? Regardless, it’s hard to imagine we will learn much on Thursday night.
Carlton simply has too much firepower for this Richmond side, boasting a full-strength midfield. It’s hard to imagine the young Tigers having the legs to go with their more seasoned opponents all game.
The Blues have rejigged their defence, with Jack Silvagni and Nick Haynes likely to provide a new edge while freeing up Mitch McGovern to intercept.
These Round 1 games tend to be weird and regardless of where these sides are on the ladder, the sheer energy in the stadium tends to keep these games competitive.
But even if this is close early, expect the Blues to push away from the Tigers and win comfortably.
Prediction: Carlton by 57 points.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2025/03/13/who-will-win-and-why-the-tips-and-predictions-for-afl-round-1-2025
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The 4 certainties for Richmond versus Carlton
Lachlan Geleit & Andrew Slevison
SEN
13 March 2025
Back for another year, the SEN.com.au team gives you an insight into how every game will play out across the weekend.
Labelling something a ‘certainty’ in any sport is fraught with danger.
But we’ll attempt to find some anyway.
Here is what we consider certainties for the Round 1 blockbuster between Richmond and Carlton.
[size=12pt]Richmond[/size]
Short to have 20+ disposals
Jayden Short got a heap of the ball in Richmond’s pre-season loss to Collingwood, racking it up across half-back to finish with 25 touches.
Last season he averaged a tick under 22 disposals per game, however, in his last three against Carlton overall he has picked up just 16, 19 and 17.
But we believe that he will be the go-to man in a Richmond defence that has a few inexperienced players on show in a big season opener.
He’ll also likely take at least a handful of kick-ins so the 20-disposal mark should be well within his sights, which could be jacked up to 25 if you’re feeling a bit loose.
Lalor or Armstrong to kick at least one goal
Tigers debutants Sam Lalor and Harry Armstrong get the chance to show the footy world why they were selected with Picks 1 and 23 respectively in last year’s draft.
Lalor has been named in the forward pocket and should spend a fair bit of time floating around attacking 50, while Armstrong will start as a key forward alongside the returning Tom Lynch.
Even thought the expectation is that the Tigers may struggle against the Blues, we feel that either (or both) of the first gamers will hit the scoreboard and give the Tiger Army something to cheer about.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2025/03/13/the-4-certainties-for-richmond-versus-carlton
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Glad to see none of the new kids are sub.
On the trains. All delayed. Might miss the bounce.
Got ma lube
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Not expecting miracles. Just have a dip Tiges and focus on the basics (hello goalkicking!!!). Hopefully the cubs show some bright spots during the game tonight to get excited by.
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Well we won at least one thing tonight - the toss ;D.
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Lalor stood up in the tackle and gave off. Good stuff.
Trainor had to go then on the wing.
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Grrr! Have to kick those Bauer.
Who is coaching our goalkicking? :facepalm No momentum in the run up and kick.
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That was a gift to the Blues :facepalm.
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Miller LOL
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Geez we're so flat-footed. No lead ups to the kicker.
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Holding the ball as a rule should be scrapped :banghead
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We're soft as butter.
Some very soft footballers out there.
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Reality check so far. We don't even look like scoring :help. Just getting smashed at stoppages.
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One handed effort from Miller.
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Don’t put Bauer back in the ruck. Uncompetitive against Cripps
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Lalor at least showing something special. Great mark!
Nank goal. Finally!
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It's called FOOTball Tiges. Not freaking handgrenade handball :banghead
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Our small forwards are in no man's land even when we get it in there. They are all out of position.
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Lots of fumbles, mis kicks etc.
Don't mind losing providing they have a crack but saw a few shirking the contest that quarter.
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Quarter time
Richmond 1.1-7
Carlton 5.4-34
Goal: Nankervis
Not surprising but it's going to be a lonnnnnnnnnng year. No cohesion whatsoever and a few out there soft in the contest.
Only exciting thing was the couple of plays Lalor had.
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We're soft as butter.
Some very soft footballers out there.
Are you serious?
Reckon our intent was very good.
Tackling best it's been in ages.
More interested in seeing g if we can keep it up for the 4 qtrs
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I'm not sure what people are wanting/expecting?
Poor disposal is killing us but cannot fault the effort
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Stats to 1/4 time
Disposals: 76 - 94 .... ( contested: 31 - 37 )
Efficiency%: 70 - 73
Marks: 19 - 27
Clearances: 8 - 9
Inside 50s: 10 - 17
In50 eff.%: 20 - 53 :help
Tackles 17 - 16
Hitouts: 8 - 10
Frees: 2 - 5
Trezise 12 possies
Ross 8
Short 6
KMac 5
Nank 5
Taranto 5
Trainor 5
Floss 5
https://www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/6972#player-stats
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Lalor at least showing something special. Great mark!
Nank goal. Finally!
You can already see he'll be a player.
Can actually hurt with his disposals, unlike Dow.
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Holding the ball as a rule should be scrapped :banghead
If Motlop wasn't HTB then nothing is ::).
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We’re trying. Just basic skill errors killing is.
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Plenty of times we are getting first hands and possession but our idiotic need to want to handball off is just killing us. Just needlessly putting ourselves under pressure until we cough it up in the tackle.
The other thing is we just do not get front and square. It's footy basics and we just don't do it.
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Kmac
That headband is atrocious
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Mansell sets up a mark and goal to Lynch.
Rich 2.1-13
Carl 7.6-48
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Again dopey going nowhere handballs :banghead. We're on the F50 Tiges. Kick it in there and set up for it.
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Lalor again all class setting up a goal for Ross.
Rich 3.1-19
Carl 7.7-49
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LOL. Nank just soccers it from the throw in and it misses everybody to bounce through :gotigers
Rich 4.1-25
Carl 7.6-48
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Kids can all play
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That was not deliberate. Broad was under pressure and his leg was forced to kick that way in the tackle.
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Wouldn’t mind seeing Lalor have a spell on ball
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That was our best quarter for the season.
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Half time
Richmond 1.1 4.1-25
Carlton 5.4 7.8-50
Goals: Nankervis 2, Lynch, Ross.
Outclassed and we're our own worse enemy with our stupid overhandballing but at least we're having a dip so far especially that quarter. We ended up winning it on the scoreboard.
Lalor is special already.
Blight doing well on McKay.
Nank has leading the way.
Taranto lifted in the middle that quarter.
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Wouldn’t mind seeing Lalor have a spell on ball
I wouldn't mind seeing it either TK but apparently we're managing his minutes. Only going to play him 70% time on ground across the night.
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Really happy with the effort
Attack on the contest very good, tackling definitely not being rewarded :banghead
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Alot of untidy possessions. If we fix that and keep the same intensity we'll be more than competitive.
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Stats to 1/2 time
Disposals: 170 - 197 .... ( contested: 68 - 75 )
Efficiency%: 75 - 72
Marks: 33 - 50
Clearances: 20 - 20 .... ( centre: 7 - 5 )
Inside 50s: 20 - 36
In50 eff.%: 25 - 42
In50 marks: 3 - 6
Tackles 33 - 32
Hitouts: 16 - 18
Frees: 9 - 12 ::)
Short 14 possies
Taranto 14
Ross 13
Nank 12
Trezise 12
Hopper 11
Banks 9
Lalor 9
Floss 9
Dow 8
Trainor 8
Broad 7
Kmac 7
Lynch 6
Bauer 5
Blight 5
Brown 5
Miller 5
Mansell 4
Green 3
Armstrong 2
Campbell 2
Sonsie 0 .... sub not used yet.
https://www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/6972#player-stats
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Both hands Greeny.
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Chaos footy. Just keep getting it forward anyhow and apply forward pressure.
Goal to Campbell :gotigers
Rich 5.1-31
Carl 7.8-50
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Lalor :gotigers
Rich 6.1-37
Carl 7.8-50
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The telegraphed kick to the top of the square and an uncontested mark :banghead
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Yep wayne. Terrible team defending to a slow high ball. Left open space 20m out from Carlton's goal :facepalm.
Blight landed awkwardly on his knee and has gone off :-\.
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Doug Wade wearing a Tigers scarf in the crowd. Never thought I'd see that.
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Hopper :gotigers
Rich 7.2-44
Carl 8.8-56
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Lalor again has his hands in a goal.
Ross :gotigers
Rich 8.2-50
Carl 8.8-56
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Don't lose your heads in the last 2 mins Tigers with silly mistakes.
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Our defence has really looked good the last 2 quarters. Better pressure upfield helps too.
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Brown after the siren levels it up at 3/4 time :gotigers
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That was our best quarter of footy for the season
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3/4 time
Richmond 1.1 4.1 9.3-57
Carlton 5.4 7.8 8.9-57
Goals: Nankervis 2, Ross 2, Lynch, Lalor, Hopper, Campbell, Brown.
Wow!
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Man if we pull out a win here…..
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I tipped a draw
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Stats to 3/4 time
Disposals: 266 - 299 .... ( contested: 105 - 113 )
Efficiency%: 74 - 70
Marks: 54 - 70
Clearances: 33 - 29 .... ( centre: 9 - 8 )
Inside 50s: 32 - 46
In50 eff.%: 38 - 37
In50 marks: 6 - 7
Tackles 47 - 51
Hitouts: 25 - 28
Frees: 12 - 13
Ross 24 possies .... 11 that 3rd qtr
Taranto 22
Hopper 18
Banks 17
Nank 17
Trezise 16
Short 15
https://www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/6972#player-stats
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Wouldn’t mind seeing Lalor have a spell on ball
Yze heard you TK.
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That was our best quarter of footy for the season
:snidegrin
Hoping it will be our 2nd best.
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Lalor puts up in front :gotigers
Rich 10.3-63
Carl 8.10-58
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That was more deliberate than Broad's ::).
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Mansel imitating an ostrich
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Get out of the game umps ::)
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Dow still can't kick.
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Win lose or draw an absolutely amazing performance from our group.
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Keystone cops there for the Blues.
Goal to Bauer :gotigers
Rich 11.4-70
Carl 8.10-58
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Lucky there Bauer. Dumb kick.
We get it back (Brown brilliant) and run it up for Mansell to goal :gotigers
Rich 12.4-76
Carl 8.11-59
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This is crazy. We’re gonna get some belting this year. But this has been magnificent. Dare I say it even Dow has been good
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Can't ballwatch.
-
Lalor again.
Campbell seals it :gotigers
Rich 13.4-82
Carl 9.15-69
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Unbelievable!
:gotigers
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What a win. Well done.
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How the F did that happen
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Unreal start. Stuck it up the experts who said we would go winless. ;D
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Yeahhhhhhhh the boys :cheers
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Final Score
Richmond 1.1 4.1 9.3 13.4-82
Carlton 5.4 7.8 8.9 9.15-69
Goals: Nankervis 2, Ross 2, Lalor 2, Campbell 2, Lynch, Hopper, Brown, Mansell, Bauer.
Just Wow!
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I’ve written him off time and time again but tonight Dow showed something. He was actually tough as nails. Unbelievable. Poor disposal but cracked in so hard, as every single player did.
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After a slow start we really did lift our effort and were rewarded with some Carlton implied pressure.
The kids were great, Trainor had a slow start but really came into it late.
Armstrong is tough and hard, really like him.
Lalor is just a star ⭐. Can't wait to see him at 24 years of age.
Carlton, well they were just horrible after half time
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I’ve written him off time and time again but tonight Dow showed something. He was actually tough as nails. Unbelievable. Poor disposal but cracked in so hard, as every single player did.
I agree, played well. Just a touch more composure and he will be a good player
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Poor Carlton , I feel so sorry for them…..NOT … loved watching that
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So many whipping boys had blinders.
I can't believe it, and we didn't even look panicked at the end, like seasoned veterans.
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The tackling was really good. Thought from the beginning tackled well.
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So many whipping boys had blinders.
I can't believe it, and we didn't even look panicked at the end, like seasoned veterans.
Apart for a couple of 3 minutes bursts, we actually never looked like losing after h/t. Carlton looked all at sea after qtr time in their forward line without Curnow. Miller killed Harry. All first gamers showed a bit - Harry’s attack on the ball was sensational.
What a win. We surged, they panicked. Let’s ring SEN and Korne dog about Oozes aura. Then we can call Bickley and ask how embarrassing for him he was wrong after 1 round.
Eat em alive boys!!!!
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Great effort tonight, every player tried their guts out all night & never looked down, even with a bad start we kept going hard.
I was expecting a bad loss tonight & I'm so happy to be wrong! ;D
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i cant remember a better h&a win outside our flag yuears.
Dimmas first win in the wet against port was equal to this victory.
guys like Dow, Ross made some of their players look rubbish.
Campbell, and the kids fantastic
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i cant remember a better h&a win outside our flag yuears.
Dimmas first win in the wet against port was equal to this victory.
guys like Dow, Ross made some of their players look rubbish.
Campbell, and the kids fantastic
Agree. Top 10 win of my lifetime.
Absolutely glorious.
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Bit lost for words. My brother has plans to leave at half time and work from home. Dad and I were planning a 3QT exit (we're both sore and stuffed haha).
Will post more tomorrow but elated to say the least.
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Good to have Caracella back. :shh
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Debutants were sensational.
Kids like Banks, Brown, Green, Campbell, heck even Dow - you can really see the enthusiasm and desire that's been lacking for a few years. Miller was great too. Trezise solid. Heck we have some talent here and the year may not be as bleak as once thought.
Players looked very invested and it's laughable to watch that game and wonder if they dislike Yze.
Exciting times!
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It was simply a brilliant win
That last 10 minutes of the 2nd qtr was telling. Carlton started playing with more arrogance than normal and showed us zero respect and once they faced a little bit of pressure thay caved.
Our Captain (and one his harshest critcis) led from the front and showed the way and Cubs followed.
A very special night indeed
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How good is footy.
What a win. Will be memorable for a long, long time. So many points to talk about but brilliant, brilliant win. Well done Adem
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Doing Seth Campbell’s on my way to work …
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Coaches were getting around Serpell in the rooms. I reckon they must’ve noticed a different with fitness levels, repeat sprints and efforts. Was clear to see on the tv… whether that’s just rd 1 energy or we really can run out games well, that remains to be seen
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You could really see some of the kids fading badly near the end but damn they wanted it so bad. Trainor cramping something shocking, Green gassed, Banks looked like he'd either done a quad or cramped up too.
Hard to agree that the boys aren't buying in with Yze.
Can't help but wonder now if some of our recently departed players just weren't leading by example and maybe brought the team down last year.
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I thought our defence really stepped up and looked good after Q1. Players having confidence to leave their man to kill mark contests. We haven’t seen that for a few seasons and it made a huge difference. I thought Blight showed plenty last night. Good signs for the future and especially when Gibcus and Balta return. All of a sudden we have decent tallls coming out or ding hole.
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Doing Seth Campbell’s on my way to work …
I wasn’t a fan
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Doing Seth Campbell’s on my way to work …
I wasn’t a fan
Really? I absolutely loved it. Kicked the sealer and nailed it right in front of the blues cheer squad.
Delicious!
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Doing Seth Campbell’s on my way to work …
I wasn’t a fan
Really? I absolutely loved it. Kicked the sealer and nailed it right in front of the blues cheer squad.
Delicious!
Agreed. Loved it. Worlds apart from Bolton's showing the ball example.
Doing Seth Campbell’s on my way to work …
I wasn’t a fan
Ah come on, don't be a sour puss man, it was great to see the kids excited and enthusiastic.
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I loved the enthusiasm shown by the likes of Lalor etc
Passionate stick it up em style
It’s not being a sour puss .. but I GUARANTEE you would hate it if a player from any other club did it ..
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Watched it on fox footy , then watched the replay on 7plus with different commentary.
What glorious times we live in .
The best wins are always the most unexpected.
The Seth Campbell backflip was so friggen awesome.
Lalor was everything I was hoping for and more !!!!
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I loved the enthusiasm shown by the likes of Lalor etc
Passionate stick it up em style
It’s not being a sour puss .. but I GUARANTEE you would hate it if a player from any other club did it ..
Nah I actually don't. I absolutely love personalities in sport, and I detest that the AFL is trying to remove that aspect of the game. The dissent rule for example.
Really enjoyed watching the Hawks kids last year with their own enthusiasm and shenanigans.
Remember that big personalities have always delivered the best spectacle. Richo for example as far as AFL is concerned.
Perhaps the best example for me is the Senna vs Prost era of F1. Just wonderful. Now the F1 is trying to censor drivers, tell them not to swear on the radio to their teams etc.
It's becoming robotic and bloody boring.
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I'm still buzzing. And looking forward to reading more of the posts this afternoon.
Wonderful result. Few are more important for the rivalry side than Round 1 vs the scum. Dreamtime is up their for my pure hatred for Essendon and obviously Collingwood and our new rivalry with Cats. But round 1 may be it.
41 points down. $10.50 to win. Outrageous scenes.
A big apology to KMac. He did alright, hard to argue Sonsie or McAuliffe would have had a better game on Cripps. Fair play mate well done.
New boys were just delicious. Shows how bloody important getting top end talent is. 2 first rounders for next year is fantastic
These types of players will be off limits with Tassie coming in making it so hard to rebuild. Good luck Pies and Cats.
Thought our defence was outstanding. Miller cops it a bit and Blight is slower than ideal but both beat McKay. Short and Vlastuin were great.
Dow awesome and Ross bloody amazing. Consistency is key now.
Lynch focus points is just so important, may miss a week but who cares. Great win. One for the ages.
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Coaches were getting around Serpell in the rooms. I reckon they must’ve noticed a different with fitness levels, repeat sprints and efforts. Was clear to see on the tv… whether that’s just rd 1 energy or we really can run out games well, that remains to be seen
This is brilliant
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What a difference it makes when you have 23 players giving their all for the jumper! Not everything was perfect, we still made heaps of mistakes, but every player busted his guts to contribute. When players made mistakes they did everything to make up for it, our second, third & fourth efforts were fantastic to watch.
Last year we had several blokes shirking contests & only going hard when it benefited them, we wont miss those types one little bit!
Goodbye & get stuffed! :snidegrin
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Mark Bickley will go winless is he still minding that spare seat for the premiership trophy 🏆 in the aeroplane ✈️
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Always great when we beat the Cheats.
Pressure was good and a lot of our tackles stuck which was pleasing to see.
I thought our fitness looked really good. We seemed to be running harder than the Cheats.
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You'd have to be seriously dead inside not to have enjoyed this:
(https://i.imgur.com/K5xreUs.gif)
stuffing iconic , folkloric footy moment. :clapping
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SEN callers after Carlton’s loss
AUDIO: https://x.com/JoshGarlepp/status/1900341415571526028
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gl91sBoWMAAAsCF?format=jpg&name=small)
https://x.com/vrsaljak/status/1900366974745796799
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You'd have to be seriously dead inside not to have enjoyed this:
(https://i.imgur.com/K5xreUs.gif)
stuffing iconic , folkloric footy moment. :clapping
Similarities with our Round 12 1988 win over the Blues which was also against the odds and included Peter Wilson's cartwheel on the final siren.
VIDEO: https://x.com/TheHolyBoot/status/1900214620746637672
(https://scontent.fmel17-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/62586529_1222818031213878_5495845271562616832_n.jpg?_nc_cat=105&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=833d8c&_nc_ohc=6qnaR33VOxQQ7kNvgEhhk6k&_nc_oc=AdiSniAwgsoPX7K5YVM8FijAyMs5uXyDwWZBi9Ke4A4R2kN0pn4fepjj_nTKo5pn5bHa4byHYdYpkMIwoBfRw4cR&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent.fmel17-1.fna&_nc_gid=MEUVEVU8ARlmoD_PJIE-RQ&oh=00_AYH7gBqZJekpQa-s_oJQbUdzOixPy3xjgF2M6JqjLcLnXQ&oe=67FBEE60)
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Good to have Caracella back. :shh
Thought it was a telling influence on our game plan
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Diving full length to the ground to knock the loose ball forward towards team mates seemed to happen a lot. It makes good sense - it keeps the ball in motion preventing stoppages, you can't be tackled if you don't take possession so shoveling the ball out to waiting team mates gains or retains possession, fewer fumbles trying to pick it up under pressure when you knock the ball out to a team mate with more time & space.
This seemed to happen quite often, rarely did we dive on a loose ball & then hatch it, hoping not to get pinged.
Is that part of a new game plan & does it rate as ball movement?
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Q
How many carlton coaches does it take to change a light globe?
A
Why change?
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It's becoming robotic and bloody boring.
Worth noting that the NFL in the states outlawed post score celebrations a few years ago, where player "spiked" the ball and performed spins etc.
A year later the backlash from fans was so bad they reversed the rule and now only ban celebrations that use a shooting gesture.
We. of course still allow shooting gestures, as it's not as if we have the US problem with mass shootings in schools.
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Diving full length to the ground to knock the loose ball forward towards team mates seemed to happen a lot. It makes good sense - it keeps the ball in motion preventing stoppages, you can't be tackled if you don't take possession so shoveling the ball out to waiting team mates gains or retains possession, fewer fumbles trying to pick it up under pressure when you knock the ball out to a team mate with more time & space.
This seemed to happen quite often, rarely did we dive on a loose ball & then hatch it, hoping not to get pinged.
Is that part of a new game plan & does it rate as ball movement?
This ⬆️
And thats is the reason why the "prior opportunity rule" is completely unnecessary and why its the worst thing that's ever happened to VFL/AFL footy.
Players will always adapt to any rule change better than we think.
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Thursday night was our equal 5th biggest comeback.
1. 51 points v Hawthorn, Round 5, 2003, MCG
2. 48 points v Sydney, Round 21, 1982, SCG
3. 45 points v Collingwood, preliminary final, 1973, MCG
4. 42 points v Brisbane, Round 20, 2022, MCG
5. 41 points v Hawthorn, Round 21, 2005, Docklands
5. 41 points v Carlton, Round 1, 2025, MCG
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Report Card
Ben Cotton, Jack Jovanovski and Will Faulkner
Fox Sports
March 17th, 2025
RICHMOND
Wow, did anyone see that coming? Our gut says almost certainly not, but that was one hell of a start to Richmond’s season on Thursday night — downing flag fancies Carlton by 13 points at the MCG. Admittedly, their first half was rather sloppy, but their young brigade took the bull by the horns after half time to kick nine goals and come back from a 41-point deficit. They could well be without star forward Tom Lynch for next week’s challenge against Port Adelaide away, but if their first hit out is anything to go by, it shouldn’t stop them from having a red-hot crack at going two and zero.
IN THE VOTES
Leading from the front on Thursday night was skipper Toby Nankervis (21 disposals, 35 hitouts, seven clearances, two goals), who’s majors came at a crucial time in the first half as the Tigers were chasing tail. He deserves the three votes, and not far behind him will be Jack Ross (28 disposals, seven clearances, 591 metres gained, two goals), who was exceptional in his full-time midfield role. The first pick of the 2024 National Draft in Sam Lalor (18 disposals, eight score involvements, two goal assists, two goals) didn’t have as much of the ball as some, but he made every disposal count in an exceptional debut at the top level.
ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT
In the second half, the Tigers had nothing of note to improve on; they were slick and fast. During the first half however, the Blues were able to pick apart their defensive structure slowly with a patient kick-and-mark game. The Tigers amazingly won, despite conceding 25 more inside 50s. Despite their slow start, it’s hard to critique Adem Yze’s side after one of the biggest upsets this decade... full marks!
GRADE
A+
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2025-round-1-report-card-highlights-every-club-reviewed-and-graded-carlton-blues-collingwood-magpies-essendon-bombers-best-and-worst-players-stats-latest-news/news-story/777f5bd12d72be014cd3ca893a163373
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Lesser-known Richmond defence stands up
Andrew Slevison & Lachlan Geleit
SEN
27 March 2025
While everybody gushed over No.1 draft pick Sam Lalor’s excellent debut, there were some under-the-radar Tigers who probably didn’t get the credit they deserved.
The defensive triumvirate of Ben Miller, James Trezise and Jacob Blight all performed exceptionally well, holding up on the big stage as the Blues created repeat entries.
Miller was strong all night, keeping Harry McKay in check after Blight had put the Coleman Medallist in his back pocket prior to succumbing to groin tightness just after half-time.
Trezise did some nice things off half-back and debutant Luke Trainor looked assured in his defensive role and will only get better.
Jack Ross (28 disposals, seven clearances and two goals) also played his best game in yellow and black.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2025/03/17/unheralded-the-round-1-performances-that-deserve-more-attention
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Coaches votes (Yze & Voss)
Richmond v Carlton
9 Toby Nankervis (RICH)
9 Jack Ross (RICH)
4 Jacob Weitering (CARL)
3 Tom De Koning (CARL)
2 Ben Miller (RICH)
2 Tim Taranto (RICH)
1 Nick Vlastuin (RICH)
https://www.afl.com.au/news/1281883/coaches-votes-r1-recruits-bailey-smith-and-dan-houston-shine-five-perfect-10s
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I feel like this is now Yze’s Richmond. That win symbolises the start of a new era .
Last year must of been so difficult for him with all the injuries and the long list abandoners - but it could very well be a blessing in disguise.
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Let’s wait a few weeks, Carlton shat their pants in that 2nd half.
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Let’s wait a few weeks, Carlton shat their pants in that 2nd half.
Agree 100%
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Gave a lot of hope for the future, a lot to like if this is the new expectation ,they didn’t give up and went hard and even stuck a few tackles , win or lose I hope this is the clubs expectation.
This year ,I won’t be surprised if we finish last , but will be content if they never give up and we beat Collingwood once!
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Why the Tigers' win over the Blues rates as one of the biggest AFL upsets in recent memory
By Cody Atkinson and Sean Lawson
ABC
21 March 2025
The unexpected nature of the Tigers' 13-point win over the Blues makes it one of their most famous victories of the past decade, which is saying a lot considering the club has claimed three flags in that time frame.
At one point during last Thursday night's match at the MCG, the Blues were not only in control but had their fans wondering how large the winning margin would be.
"To be in the position that we were in early in the match and give up that lead, I couldn't be more disappointed," Blues coach Michael Voss said after the match.
In raw terms, it was one of the biggest upsets in recent memory.
But how did the Tigers win and what similarities did the result have to other recent AFL upsets?
Good kicking is good footy
Of all the kicks in footy, one stands out as clearly the most important: the shot on goal.
Many were quick to point out the impact on goal-kicking after the Tigers-Blues match, none quicker than Richmond coach Adem Yze.
"Honestly … we lost on expected score," Yze said.
"So we've just won a different way today. But we've just got to get better defence."
Only the scoreboard truly matters in the footy world. But when looking at how teams played, the scoreboard sometimes obscures underlying truths.
There are two words hidden in Yze's response that many inside football treat as a guiding light: expected score.
That's the measure of shot quality adjusted for location, how the ball was gathered and how the kick was taken.
In other terms, it's how well a team plays before the final kick towards goal.
ABC Sport has looked at the 42 biggest upsets in the past four seasons. These are the match-ups where the winning underdog had a chance of victory of less than 25 per cent before the match started.
In these matches, the team favoured to win shot worse than their vanquishers three-quarters of the time.
Often it was conversion that cost the favourite the match, with a slight majority of those close "underdog wins" flipped by their opponent's relatively poor shooting.
The Tigers scored 21 more points than expected against the Blues, largely a result of unlikely snags such as Toby Nankervis's above.
By contrast, Carlton converted less accurately than expected. According to wheeloratings.com, the 27-point expected score spread is likely to end in a Blues victory 80 per cent of the time.
That doesn't diminish Richmond's effort, but it does place context around the general flow of play and points out a big indicator of how some upsets emerge.
Chaos creates opportunity
One way good teams control matches is to play them on their terms.
There's more than one way to win a footy match, but most teams have a preferred way to do it.
A hallmark of control is holding the ball behind the mark. Controlling the ball can take teams out of a match. Maintaining possession through marks is a classic way for good teams to exert their dominance.
It stands to reason that a more chaotic game can open up the chances for an upset.
The easiest — albeit slightly imperfect — way to measure this is by looking at the total number of ground balls won by both teams against the number of total marks.
A match where an unlikely upset occurs will tend to have a little more chaos about it than either side's typical game.
Similarly, favourites in the biggest upsets can be forced into a more chaotic game than they would like.
In the Tigers' victory over the Blues, their ascendancy came as the ball started to spill to the deck more.
(http://oneeyed-richmond.com/articles/ABCarticleRound1pic1.png)
As Carlton lost the ability to soak up pressure and smoothly progress the ball down the field, the upset became more likely.
The stress release of a slow march up the ground ending in a score was removed by hyperactive Richmond defence, ultimately leaving Carlton frustrated.
"As the game went, you could see Richmond clearly were gathering more energy," Voss said.
"Sometimes you just have to stay in that fight when things aren't working for you."
Pressure and territory
Most coaches like to explain two things when given the chance: pressure and territory.
If you get the ball up your end more often than the other team, then you have a fair chance of winning. If you can't do that, make sure you limit the scoring chances from those inside-50 entries.
Getting more inside 50s than your opponent matches up strongly with victory in most games. Territory is not only a key part of how teams score but also how they prevent opposition goals.
In big upset wins, though, that relationship partially breaks down.
In upsets, the underdogs are usually still burdened with a deficit of territory to overcome. That means the second part of the picture — pressure — is so important.
(http://oneeyed-richmond.com/articles/ABCarticleRound1pic2.png)
In the last few years, teams generally raise their tackle efforts in wins compared to other matches.
But the biggest upsets see a higher rate of tackles for the victors than in ordinary games. This likely contributes to a drop in accuracy and efficiency when going inside 50.
"We play full team defence, so our forwards were really important in that and we played a really strong — [it] looked like we played a strong — brand on defence," Yze said after the win over the Blues.
The Tigers brought the pressure as the match wore on, just as they brought more of the game to the ground. Whenever the Blues got the ball, it seemed they were surrounded by an ambush of Tigers.
In the last quarter, the Blues managed 19 inside 50s to just eight from the Tigers. They had the ball in their half 83 per cent of the time in the last 20 minutes but lost the match in that period.
Across the entire match, the Tigers had 25 fewer inside 50s than the Blues but managed to lay six more tackles, evidence of the push-pull on display.
Is it sustainable?
Carlton and Richmond fans will frantically try to understand if round one suggests a bigger change in fortunes, or if it's just a lightning strike of good — or bad — luck.
(http://oneeyed-richmond.com/articles/ABCarticleRound1pic3.png)
An interesting picture emerges from the 25 biggest early-season upsets in recent years. While plenty were just blips without bigger meaning, quite a few turned out to be "false" upsets.
Some were an early sign of rising strength and others indicated emerging struggles at an assumed contender.
Of those teams causing upsets, a quarter eventually finished higher than the fancied opponent on the ladder, and only one-third of the time did the ladder gap between the two sides surpass five wins.
Some concern from Carlton fans might be well held as only half of the early-beaten favourites finished the season with winning records.
Storied collapses like Fremantle in 2016, Adelaide in 2018 and Melbourne in 2019 were signalled by early boilovers. So too were rises to finals by Collingwood in 2018 and Sydney in 2021.
Carlton has also lived this story before.
In early 2012, the Blues were brought back to earth by Essendon in a match widely assumed to be a foregone conclusion.
Months later, both sides were all square on the ladder and Carlton parted ways with Brett Ratten after the season.
Carlton's 2012 campaign also saw another boilover when they lost to the Suns, who collected just their third win of the season.
And you'd be right if you thought that the start of the season was the most likely place to see big upsets.
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However, early-season upsets usually aren't as big in nature as what we saw last week. The frequency of upsets drops off as the season unfolds.
Footy is forever unpredictable and the truly out-of-the-box results never go away. Wild upsets can happen anytime, but they peak in the third quarter of the season.
For Carlton fans, they'll be hoping last week was a glitch, while their Richmond counterparts will cling to the belief this was the first sign of their next premiership team.
For all neutral footy fans who love a surprise, they just hope another big upset is around the corner.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-20/afl-richmond-tigers-carlton-blues-analysis/105070092