Richmond reaches fork in the road Rohan Connolly
The Age
May 19, 2014 Richmond has had some embarrassing losses over the years, but few would have rankled with the faithful as much as Saturday’s defeat against Melbourne.
It wasn’t the margin, obviously, the Tigers were still within a kick with only a few minutes to play. Not necessarily even the opponent, the Demons’ improvement from last year to this is becoming more apparent by the week.
But the result on a day when the club was supposed to be honouring the memory of Tom Hafey, the coach who not only landed four of Richmond’s 10 premierships, but essentially instilled the values of hard work, determination and the “Eat `Em Alive” ethos that was once second nature at Punt Road, was particularly hard to swallow.
As is this unpalatable truth: Less than halfway through the season, Richmond can already forget about the finals. Now three games outside the eight, the Tigers could turn on a major form reversal and still have far too many rivals for September ahead of them in the queue.
Over the next five weeks, they take on Greater Western Sydney, Essendon, North Melbourne, Fremantle and Sydney. Only in the first will they start favourite, and even the most optimistic Tiger couldn’t possibly envisage a return from that block of more than two wins. Take even that and you’re left with a win-loss record of 4-9. And that equals game over.
Just how a team that finished last season just half-a-game outside the top four has fallen this far appears to have even coach Damien Hardwick perplexed, but statistically at least, the problems are everywhere.
Richmond’s disposal has gone south big time, its ranking for effective kicks has fallen from first in 2013 to 10th, disposal efficiency from third to ninth.
Its stoppage work in an offensive sense is a mess. Last year, the Tigers ranked first on the differentials for points scored from stoppages - 349 points more than their opponents for the season. Currently, that figure is in the red, and the ranking is 12th.
Richmond has worked hard under Hardwick to lift its hard-ball credentials. In 2013, the Tigers were ranked second on the contested ball differentials. Now, they are 14th.
The quick ball movement when the Tigers were at their best last year has also vanished. Last season, they ranked seventh for playing on after a mark, now 15th.
Their forward line issues go way beyond Jack Riewoldt’s struggles. The lack of support for the spearhead isn’t reflected only in goalkicking returns, but the fact Richmond’s scores per inside-50 average ranking has fallen from fourth to 15th.
Its defence, meanwhile, in which Troy Chaplin in particular hasn’t been able to exert nearly the same influence as previously, is starting to buckle under the strain, the equivalent scores from inside-50s against ranking also going from fourth to 15th.
That’s a snapshot of the problems. And the solutions? Well, Richmond may well be coming to a very significant fork in the road, a point that in terms of the bigger picture it has to either hold firm with its strategy and refuse to throw the baby out with the bathwater, or concede defeat and effectively start again.
The Tigers’ recruitment of more than a dozen players from other AFL clubs, coming during a period when the fledgling Gold Coast and GWS were picking the eyes out of the national draft, is a double-edged sword.
Had Ivan Maric been performing the structurally critical role he performed last year in the ruck, had established stars Trent Cotchin, Brett Deledio and Dustin Martin at least held their form collectively, and had the likes of Brandon Ellis, Nick Vlastuin and Reece Conca gone to another level to join them, the “foreign legion” would be playing the necessary support roles they performed adequately enough in 2013.
But none of the above has materialised this season. That’s increased the pressure on the likes of Shaun Grigg, Bachar Houli, Ricky Petterd and recent arrivals such as Shaun Hampson and Matt Thomas to raise their personal bar higher. The sceptics would suggest all have merely proved why they were let go from their original homes.
The optimistic view is that for Richmond, this is a bump in the developmental road, one that even great teams of the modern era such as Hawthorn and Geelong have faced. That not only will Ellis, Vlastuin and Conca get there, but there will be more troops on the way to help them. Hold your nerve, will be the mantra internally.
But are the likes of the largely untried Matt McDonough, Ben Lennon, Todd Elton, Kamdyn McIntosh, Liam McBean and Anthony Miles going to develop anywhere near quickly enough for the so-called journeymen to be phased out and the upward trajectory resumed before the simmering discontent of the fan base consumes a plan five years in the making?
Hardwick and the Richmond hierarchy must be desperately hoping so. Because the alternative, to effectively tear up the blueprint and start again, is a story almost everyone connected with Punt Road during the past three decades knows all too well.
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