One-Eyed Richmond Forum
Football => Richmond Rant => Topic started by: one-eyed on August 25, 2023, 04:54:16 AM
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A question for fans of teams who won’t feature in this year's finals:
How many wins would be a pass mark for your team in 2024?
https://twitter.com/7AFL/status/1694600469837230305
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Without having a draw for next season who knows
Though I reckon ours will be relatively soft
But I do expect a "new coach bounce" so I'm thinking 12 or 13 ;D
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All depends on list management. If we go and get some free agency players or do we trade in to the first round.
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Also depends on how kind the footy injury gods will be to us in 24
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IMHO we are in a lot of trouble with our list, new coach could do a massive clean out,
WE could get 6 wins only, and that may be a pass.
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10
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Finals or bottom 4 - no useless mid table finish. :shh
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Believe we will be stuck next year having to play Geelong in Geelong. Can't stand that ground.
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Finals or bottom 4 - no useless mid table finish. :shh
Yep.
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22 :rollin
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Which clubs will make the top 8 in 2024?
(According to SEN’s 2023 AFL Fan Survey)
94.3% - Collingwood
93.7% - Brisbane
86.5% - Carlton
83.5% - Melbourne
77.8% - GWS Giants
72.3% - Port Adelaide
71.1% - Sydney
56.7% - Adelaide
Remainder of the choices:
33.5% - Gold Coast
31% - Western Bulldogs
19% - Geelong
12.7% - St Kilda
12.7% - Essendon
5.6% - Fremantle
5.5% - Richmond
3.9% - Hawthorn
1.6% - North Melbourne
0.8% - West Coast
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/12/05/who-clubs-will-make-the-top-8-in-2024-we-surveyed-thousands-of-fans-for/
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Relatively soft draw
New coach bounce
Reckon we will go OK
Not top 4 but everything falls our wat injury wise and the kids come along as I think some of them will the somewhere between 6th and 9th for the Tigers IMHO
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A good run with injuries would see us as high as 5th, a repeat of last season 14th.
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I’m just looking forward to the beginning of a new journey. It’s a new era , wins are irrelevant although I think we’ll be competitive.
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I’m just looking forward to the beginning of a new journey. It’s a new era , wins are irrelevant although I think we’ll be competitive.
Agreed. It wouldn't surprise me if we surprised and challenge for the bottom half of the 8. Equally, I can see us being bottom 4.
Just hope some kids develop well.
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I want competitive finals or bottom 4
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I want competitive finals or bottom 4
I don't really disagree, but when you say bottom 4 you mean you will be happy with 4-5 wins? Again, I don't disagree with that as it could be a good thing for us, but I'll remind you of your wish if we do bottom out & you turn on them.
Competitive finals finish would be awesome, but I think its unlikely ...
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I want competitive finals or bottom 4
I don't really disagree, but when you say bottom 4 you mean you will be happy with 4-5 wins? Again, I don't disagree with that as it could be a good thing for us, but I'll remind you of your wish if we do bottom out & you turn on them.
Competitive finals finish would be awesome, but I think its unlikely ...
In order of preference:
Flag
Play kids & finals
Play kids & bottom 4
Play same olds & finals
Same olds & bottom 4
Kids & mid table (9th-14th)
Same olds & mid table
:shh
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I want competitive finals or bottom 4
I don't really disagree, but when you say bottom 4 you mean you will be happy with 4-5 wins? Again, I don't disagree with that as it could be a good thing for us, but I'll remind you of your wish if we do bottom out & you turn on them.
Competitive finals finish would be awesome, but I think its unlikely ...
I want a flag, so if they aren't playing finals a half a chance then we may as well secure a good draft pick
I love wins too but I don't see the point getting 8-11 wins and finishing 9-12th or so.
If we keep a healthy list I can see us having a go from 5-8th
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I’m just looking forward to the beginning of a new journey. It’s a new era , wins are irrelevant although I think we’ll be competitive.
Agree with this
Yze to implement his plan and find out who on the list we need to keep longer term.
With a big draft pick hand wins are irrelevant for 2024. Win a heap of games then the list is going places. If we finish mid table or lower then we have answers on some of the list and we can adjust the list through the draft and trade period.
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Out with the old: How much experience has your club lost?
North Melbourne 1463 games
West Coast 1042
Richmond 1039 ........ Jack Riewoldt (347) and Trent Cotchin (306) make up 653 games of it.
Port Adelaide 765
Brisbane 730
Melbourne 729
Sydney 715
W.Bulldogs 678
Carlton 631
Geelong 607
Fremantle 525
St Kilda 462
Essendon 425
Adelaide 358
Gold Coast 347
GWS Giants 328
Collingwood 302
Hawthorn 161
https://www.afl.com.au/news/1057265/out-with-the-old-how-much-experience-has-your-club-lost
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Most of those in the footy media are predicting us to finish in the bottom 4.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GBGMS2saAAA2MsV?format=jpg&name=large)
https://twitter.com/watotiger/status/1734321622495166501/photo/1
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Finals or bottom 4 - no useless mid table finish. :shh
I agree winning 10 games is useless for us. We win 12 to 13 and make finals or bottom out. We need a pick 3 again.
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2024 over/under markets via Sportsbet
Adelaide – 12.5
Brisbane – 15.5
Carlton – 13.5
Collingwood – 16.5
Essendon – 11.5
Fremantle – 9.5
Geelong – 11.5
Gold Coast – 10.5
GWS Giants – 14.5
Hawthorn – 8.5
Melbourne – 14.5
North Melbourne – 4.5
Port Adelaide – 13.5
Richmond – 10.5
St Kilda – 11.5
Sydney – 12.5
West Coast – 4.5
Western Bulldogs – 11.5
Richmond is the team that immediately stood out to Cornes, sitting at 10.5.
The Tigers won 10 games in 2023, dealing with the chaos that was Damien Hardwick’s departure from the club and Tom Lynch only playing four games.
Cornes doesn’t see Richmond improving in 2024 under new coach Adem Yze.
“Some of them really stand out to me and some of them are wrong,” he told SEN Breakfast.
“The market has got Richmond winning 10.5 games this year. Give me the under on that every day of the week.
“The prospect of Lynch playing 20 games is slim, Josh Gibcus is probably the same, Dylan Grimes is injured, Dion Prestia is always injured.
“I agree that if they can get their veteran players playing 20 games, but it rarely happens, unfortunately.
“10.5 wins for the Tigers, I think it’s going to be hard for them to get above 10.5.
“They won 10 last year. There was a lot of instability at the footy club, so new coach bounce perhaps, but if I’m just looking at it, that one was staring at me in the face that Richmond aren’t going to win 11 games this year.”
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2024/01/30/some-of-them-are-wrong-the-afl-over-under-win-totals-that-caught-kane-cornes/
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Excellent a statement from Cornes usually is wrong so 11+ wins here we come
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All depends on expectation and ones perception of where we are at.
If we go down the path of playing mostly older players then top 8 and 12 plus games has to be the aim.
If we prioritise games into kids which is what we should be doing then the bar has to be lower.
Biggest trouble is the lack of depth in key areas and the only way you build depth is by getting games into kids.
Cornes ir right in a way it would not take many injuries to totally derail our season. If injuries do occur to the wrong players then bottom 4 is very much on the cards. That has to tell supporterswhere we are at.
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Yeah Claw (WB!), right enough. But I don't want to scrape into the 8 on a last gasp from a bunch of cooked spuds. I'd prefer to back our youth (even if they aren't perfect) & have a crack at a new style this year.
The worst we can do is to fail & bottom out, then we get a top draft pick or two & bring in some kids who can play the way we want them to. Our senior players are good for guiding & supporting our new list but they shouldn't be relied on to push us up the ladder on their last legs. That would be truly sad.
I have no fear of a bottom 4 finish, it could be the best thing for us ...
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TIGERS FATE RELIES ON MARTIN AND LYNCH
By Michael Manley
The Sporting Base
February 9, 2024
There’s no more confusing team in trying to assess where they will finish than the Tigers.
If everything clicked under their new coach Adem Yze they could be premiership contenders. If the great era can’t be regenerated, then it’s likely to be a slow burn as they exit out premiership champions and try and find their replacements.
Dustin Martin finished last season in great form and he looks even fitter. If he can combine with Shai Bolton and Tom Lynch is fit that will provide a lot of headaches to opposition teams.
Last season in terms of accuracy Richmond was the worst kicking team in the competition with Martin and Bolton the leading offenders.
They also intend to play Noah Balta down forward and he is also an unreliable conveyance kicking for goal.
Tim Taranto won the best and fairest last year, and he leads their on ball contingent. His GWS teammate Jacob Hopper has finally had a pre-season which he should benefit from.
Their backline wasn’t the problem last year. They have picked up a great one on one defender in Tylar Young who complements Nick Vlaustin, Dylan Grimes, Daniel Rioli and Jayden Short.
Josh Gibcus will also return and Tom Brown, Sam Banks and James Trezise look promising young players.
If the likes of Grimes, Dion Presia and Jack Graham can have better seasons that will also be a big help.
FOR:
Any team which has Tim Taranto, Martin, Lynch and Bolton with a support crew of Dan Rioli, Jacob Hopper, Nick Vlaustin and Liam Baker has a lot going for it
AGAINST:
It’s still a mix of premiership players with unproven youngsters which doesn’t necessarily work.
Odds: $51
IS IT VALUE:
Yes. They showed their ability winning six out of seven games when Andrew McQualter replaced Hardwick mid-year. Tom Lynch back is huge.
https://thesportingbase.com/afl-tigers-fate-relies-on-martin-and-lynch/
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Kane Cornes and David King have tried to predict whether each AFL club will win more or less games than their betting over/under line across the 2024 home and away season.
(https://images.ctfassets.net/u8w3l566ay8a/XJY56qJcUzAA8ZfxfZGXm/dee60ab55a43a51073c88025240384b2/AFL_Club_banners_-_2022-10-12T153956.739.png)
2023 record: 10-1-12
2024 line: 10.5 wins
Cornes’ verdict: UNDER
King’s verdict: UNDER
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2024/02/09/over-unders-cornes-and-king-go-head-to-head-on-2024-win-lines-for-all-18/
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Richmond is going the other way; they’re probably not going to do a West Coast and stick with a premiership core for too long, and it’s worth noting they had a winning record as late as Round 19 in 2023 before losing four of their last five games.
But after being forced to rely on the now-retired Jack Riewoldt last season, they’re still sitting there with their fingers crossed Tom Lynch can get back fit, and Damien Hardwick’s exit said plenty about where he thinks this list is headed.
Perhaps Adem Yze can fix things quickly - changing the game style to get more out of Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper makes plenty of sense to us - and given who’s left here it’s hard to imagine the Tigers being properly bad. But being properly good also seems unrealistic.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2024-preview-team-most-likely-to-rise-from-nonfinalist-to-top-four-analysis-predictions-predicted-ladder-bottom-10-teams-latest-news/news-story/a92819790b058c0776e068d845e1f2e7
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RICHMOND
This season feels like a free hit for the Tigers under Yze. They just have to avoid bottoming out. A changing of the guard.
- Andrew Slevison
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2024/02/14/24-words-to-sum-up-each-afl-clubs-2024-prospects/
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Predicted AFL ladder
Max Laughton
Fox Sports
March 4th, 2024
15. Richmond
Much like our discomfort with tipping a team for eighth, we don’t feel good about putting the Tigers in the bottom four, because they’ve clearly got quite a bit of top-end talent.
It’s worth remembering they had a winning record heading into Round 20 last year, sitting 10th on the ladder and only behind eventual preliminary finalists Carlton on percentage. They then lost four of their last five to finish 13th.
If you’ll recall, they also finished 13th in 2016, and used the bottom-six draw to their advantage in 2017 on route to the flag. And while it would seem remarkably unlikely they could repeat the feat in 2024, is there some chance they pull a GWS-like rise? Is it possible the Hardwick to Yze transition actually revitalises the team, like the Cameron to Kingsley switch allowed the Giants to remember how talented they still were?
The problem is it’d only take a few injuries - and specifically continued woes for Tom Lynch, who genuinely feels like he’s worth 3-4 goals - for the Tigers to be reliant on questionable depth.
We don’t think they’re gonna be bad in 2024, but it’s just going to be hard for them to be good enough to actually contend for finals.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GHzbpgfaQAAME_B?format=jpg&name=900x900)
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-predicted-ladder-2024-preseason-analysis-and-preview-tips-for-top-four-top-eight-and-wooden-spoon-latest-news/news-story/61bdfb9530df4231aeaaff1bf661c5c0
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So they dont think we'll be bad but tip us to finish 15th :shh
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Carlton below St Kilda = stop reading because they have NFI
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AFL website predictions for Richmond:
Damian Barrett 15th
Riley Beveridge 14th
Sarah Black 15th
Nat Edwards 15th
Josh Gabelich 15th
Sarah Olle 15th
Nathan Schmook 16th
Callum Twomey 15th
Michael Whiting 15th
https://www.afl.com.au/news/1080056/crystal-ball-our-predictions-for-the-2024-afl-season-are-in
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Every AFL club’s ladder range for 2024
Jack Jovanovski and David Zita
Fox Sports
March 6th, 2024
RICHMOND: 11th-14th
True, they’re in a new phase, but this is still a side with the likes of Dustin Martin and Shai Bolton, so it’s hard to predict a bottom four finish even with all the changes. What will be key is how quickly they adapt to Adem Yze’s game style and also whether Tom Lynch can return at the level he was at prior to his injury layoff. Should things fall into place, they’re a good enough side to hold off a bottom four finish. Either way, they’re set to go backwards in order to go forwards.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2024-every-clubs-predicted-ladder-range-premiership-finals-top-eight-top-four-bottom-four-predictions-opening-round/news-story/03b0ccf13e0b337b3a453b4584c8a3c4
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AFL’s 2024 pecking order revealed... and why 15 can dream of finals: Power Rankings
Max Laughton
Fox Sports
March 6th, 2024
15. RICHMOND
Last year: 13th, 10-12-1, 93.6%
It’s easy to forget the Tigers had a winning record and sat 10th with a month left in the 2023 season. They’ve become most people’s automatic fourth member of the bottom four in their predicted ladder, when they’ve got a very different list to the rebuilding Hawks, Roos and/or Eagles. It’s a little bit weird, isn’t it? It speaks to the weird position they’re in as a list - not yet rebuilding, but also not really contending, unless everything goes right and their veteran stars stay out of the trainer’s room. With a pretty tough opening month of the Suns away, Carlton, Port Adelaide and Sydney, it wouldn’t be a shock if the Tigers were 0-4 and pretty much out of the conversation very quickly, but could they pull a few upsets and prove to be better than anyone expected? There is at least a world where Richmond plays finals in 2024, something we can’t really imagine for the three teams below them.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2024-preseason-power-rankings-ahead-of-opening-round-every-club-ranked-analysis-ladder-predictions-top-eight-latest-news/news-story/87268762a5dbe79beca7d2056c9ee3bc
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2024 AFL Season Preview: Richmond
Brandon Patane
theinnersanctum.com.au
08/03/2024
Prediction: 17th
2024 seems to be the year that marks the start of what will at least be a miniature rebuild for the Tigers. As mentioned before, they do still have some brilliant top end talent, and with those players at their disposal it is not out of the question that they could jump back up quicker than we think.
However, the gap between those elite names and the developing young talent is pretty clear, and it is hard to see how the Richmond would be able to rely on those names early in their careers, especially if injuries occur throughout the season.
The potential is there for all to see, but as they maximise the potential of their youth, the Tigers look like they will need to go down before they come back up.
Full Richmond preview: https://www.theinnersanctum.com.au/2024-afl-season-preview-richmond/
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I don’t think we can win another game this decade , all these ex spurts who haven’t played a game in their life couldn’t be wrong could they ?
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Kane Cornes has us finishing 19th
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My expectations are extremely low from what I have seen so far.
With a three game sample size it's already pretty clear what isn't a priority for the coaching staff.
I would have to say wins are not a measure of any sort of metric of success with this new regime.
So with this in mind and how the team actually plays, I wouldn't be expecting any more than 4 wins this season. I would be very surprised if we got more than 4 wins to be honest.
We can put a cross through Dow and Cumbersome but hopefully we can build a good squad for future success and see some good ongoing development from Campbell, Green, McAuliffe, Brown, Banks, Clarke, Tresize, Sonsie, Smith etc.