One-Eyed Richmond Forum
Football => Richmond Rant => Topic started by: one-eyed on March 23, 2019, 02:37:57 AM
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As per thread title:
Can we still win the flag without Rance?
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Jon Ralph's take ...
Can Tigers win flag without Rance?
Jon Ralph,
Herald Sun
23 March 2019
Richmond might still be able to defy the hammer blow of Alex Rance’s injury to win the 2019 premiership.
But if the Tigers hold up the cup this season they will do it in a manner unrecognisable to their extraordinary 2017 campaign.
For all their offensive weapons, the Tigers won that flag on a bedrock of defence — team defence, brilliant one-on-one defence, and a feverish tackling style that sucked the life out of opponents.
In three straight finals they kept Geelong, GWS and Adelaide to 40, 67 and 60 points — a phenomenal feat.
And Rance was at the heart of it, denied the 2017 Norm Smith Medal only because the ball stopped getting down to him aftera sublime first half.
His probable replacements are relative unknowns — a 19-year-old Rance clone and a defender “you’d want your daughter to marry”.
Noah Balta made his debut on Thursday night as a back-up ruckman and versatile key-position player after Hardwick told Fox Footy in the pre-match that Balta reminded him of 200-gamer Rance.
He spent time in the VFL last year as a key defender, giving the Tigers the option of playing him back and bringing Ivan Soldo in for more ruck depth.
Balta has excellent junior pedigree as the No.25 draftee in the 2017 national draft, and in December Richmond forwards coach Justin Leppitsch labelled him the most impressive athlete he had seen.
However, the more likely change is third-year defender Ryan Garthwaite, who returned in the VFL on Thursday.
Drafted as the No.72 selection in 2016, he impressed as a late inclusion for David Astbury in Round 13 last year.
Captain Trent Cotchin said last year Garthwaite was the kind of person “you’d want to marry your daughter”, while Jack Riewoldt has described the blond stuff as the “nicest bloke you’ll ever meet”.
More importantly, he can play as a stopper who also flies for his intercept marks.
Richmond’s challenge of covering a champion’s injury isn’t unique, it’s just unique to the current-day Tigers.
Their big four — Rance, Jack Riewoldt, Dustin Martin and Trent Cotchin — have missed just 14 games since the start of the 2014 season.
So if the Tigers are to win the premiership this year without Rance, they might need to blow rivals off the park with high-octane offence.
They will need to score more heavily to win because they can no longer play eight defenders, and they can no longer rely on Rance repelling opposition advances like a human Pong computer game.
The club had already identified the need to tinker with their surge-based method this year under the new 6-6-6 rules.
It chased big forward Tom Lynch hard not only because he was a darn good player but also because he fitted where the game was going.
So Lynch at least gives them the chance to turbo-charge an offence that already scored heavily with less conventional methods. His three-goal first-up performance was remarkable.
There’s little doubt Richmond will win enough home-and-away games to qualify for September.
But can they beat three finals rivals in match-ups that will require their defenders to stand Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling, Jack Gunston and James Sicily, and Josh Jenkins, Taylor Walker and Tom Lynch?
Hardwick will slot Garthwaite or Balta into that massive back six vacancy.
But he’ll know he won’t be able to judge just how much the team misses Rance until the final weeks of the premiership season.
MATCHES MISSED SINCE ROUND 1, 2014 (118 GAMES)
Dustin Martin 2 (soft-tissue injuries in 2014, 18)
Jack Riewoldt 2 (scratch to eyeball 2017)
Alex Rance 7 (two-week suspension 2016, five weeks after a bike accident 2014)
Trent Cotchin 4 (one week with a knee injury in 2018, two weeks with fractured cheekbone 2016, one with a back injury 2015)
Total: 15
Of those 118 games there has been only one match when two of those players have been missing — Cotchin and Rance missed Round 7, 2016. Richmond lost to Hawthorn by 46 points.
ALEX RANCE IN 2018
Third-best key defender based on AFL Player Rankings
Best intercept marking key defender
Fifth-best spoiler of key defenders
Fifth-best intercept marker of key defenders
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/expert-opinion/jon-ralph/exciting-youngsters-get-their-chance-to-step-up-in-alex-rances-absence/news-story/6918764ea803bd660f57a68ee91bf9bc
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Of course, but it's not about the guy who replaces him so much, there needs to be more pressure up field to stop easy entries.
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No doubt we can and it's been proven.Cat's won the flag the year the best player left them and eagles did it without there best midfielder and premier ruck.I hope this galvanise the group and makes us stronger.No dout loosing your best player is hard,but I see it us a opportunity for our kids to ,Garth,Balta and Moore.
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Chris McDermott in the Adelaide Advertiser reckons "our premiership hopes are in tatters" and we "are battling for a place in the top-eight, and scrambling for a way to fill an unfillable void".
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Tigers’ Rance loss gives all clubs pause for thought
Chris McDermott,
The Advertiser
24 March 2019
In the blink of an eye — or is that the snap of a knee — Richmond’s 2019 premiership hopes are in tatters.
One man doesn’t make a team but when it’s a player of the uniqueness of key defender Alex Rance, it changes a team’s dynamic so much there is simply not enough time in modern football to make the adjustments to cover his absence.
Rance can play as a shutdown defender or a loose man. He can play big or small, and while he has his critics, he has far more admirers and only those at Tigerland will know the true meaning of his loss for the rest of 2019.
Forwards might win minor-round matches but defenders win you premierships, and with confirmation Rance will miss the rest of the season, the Tigers’ defence is broken.
Coach Damian Hardwick will be hard at work, looking for a solution. He will have already run all the simulations to cover such a central figure.
“What if we lose Alex Rance?” — but he surely would not have thought he would be putting those plans into action so early.
Suddenly, a genuine contender for the flag has come back to the pack.
Reality now is the Tigers are battling for a place in the top-eight, and scrambling for a way to fill an unfillable void.
Such is life in the AFL. Yet, as big a blow as Rance’s injury is, it could have been worse.
The sight of Jack Riewoldt laying on the ground in the middle of the MCG, following an off-the-ball hit from Liam Jones, would have had every Richmond fan watching on in horror. Fortunately, he got to his feet and soldiered on.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/afl/expert-opinion/chris-mcdermott/ramifications-of-the-rance-injury-will-not-only-be-felt-at-richmond/news-story/1dba3423e0dd63b84b3046aed661cdf4
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Couple of other teams without so called pivotal players have appeareared to have covered their loss with little or no effect to team performance.
If trying to find a positive from Rance going down is that it has occurred so early in the season and allows the coaches to adjust team structures and experiment a little as we go. A late season injury prior to finals for example would be much harder to cope with.
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Headline should read crows in tatters in rd 1 since being choked by tigers 2 seasons ago.
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Yes we can!
We keep getting told how good our depth is
Well we are about to find out just how good
Not disputing it is a massive loss but it is also a massive opportunity to for blokes to go to new levels that they themselves don't realise they are capable of.
Bring it on I say.
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Yes we can!
We keep getting told how good our depth is
Well we are about to find out just how good
Not diuting it is a massive loss but it is also a massive opportunity to for blokes to go to new levels that they themselves don't realise they are capable of.
Bring it on I say.
yep this
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I hope Im wrong but I dont think we can. Rance isnt just one playet he is 3 players rolled into 1. People need to remember how many times over the years he has come off his man to spoil someone else or just saved the day in defence with a heroic gutsy act. We dont have another one like him and we will leak the goals that Rance always seemed to save. Hardwick needs to change the ststem in defence. Maybe go smaller and quicker and have more run now. Stack maybe the option.
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I think Garth’s will surprise many, he is an old fashioned back man and hates conceding. Bit of a mixture of grimes Rance and Astbury.
Balta will add another cog to the mix too, I’d like to see him have a crack at Cox this week.
He has height, speed and the leap to be able to get in front and spoil his marking attempts.
Our backline will change week to week now I think depending on match ups
But no reason why we can’t win the flag, personally I think our contested ball and clearances is a bigger issue rather than losing Rance that will stop us winning the flag.
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Rance is a massive loss and his absence may prove to be a bridge too far to cover. There's no getting away from that.
However, one thing it will do is free us up. Most commentators will now write us off so there will be no pressure nor expectation on us to go all the way unlike last year. We can now play with the freedom of the underdog and as the hunter again like we did in 2017.
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I understand your point but I don’t think many commentators are writing us off.
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Of course we can although it will be a lot more difficult.
Guys like Garthwaite (when fit), Balta, Stack, Markov, Menadue and even Bellis may have to raise their game to help out in defence. We should pick sides that reflect the opposition attack (talls and shorts) to help them out.
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All teams lose good players to injury.
We are a well coached system based team. I expect we will keep on destroying the opposition. . It's an amazing opportunity for someone else to step up.
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I understand your point but I don’t think many commentators are writing us off.
The bookies have already dumped us as flag favourite.
One loss and watch the usual suspect journos try to blame it on the loss of Rance and write us off.
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this is what ive been going on about for ages.
lose Rance or astbury and all we have is a bloke whos played two games in garthwaite or we rely on Balta who is only 19 and playe one game.
Lose JR or Lynch or god forbid both and we are asking one gamer Balta and 8 gamer Moore to fill the void.
Lose nankervis and it is exactly the same sort of thing. The only areas we have real depth in when it comes to games played is small fwds and med /sml defenders.
It is the same for every team finding the right balance between getting games into juniors and playing the senior blokes. Having so few injuries over the last 4 or so yrs really hurts us when it comes to games into what is essentially the depth.
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According to most tiger extremists we have wonderful depth and it should not be a problem.
I mean to say one player does not make a team in anyones language does it.
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Well, the year will tell the truth. Anyway, there is no team in the history of football that could easily replace a five time AA backman who is one of the best defenders the game has seen. The only way really is everyone raising their performances another few percent to cover his loss because you can't have any player walk in and perform the job Rance does as well as he does.
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ARE RICHMOND WRECKED WITHOUT RANCE?
News Corp
25 March 2019
It might have happened on Thursday night, in the season opener but the biggest talking point has to be what will the Tigers do without their rock?
For so long Alex Rance has been the man the Tigers can depend upon. He’s rarely injured, always reliable, shuts down key forwards and marshalls their defence.
Now, after an ACL tear, his season is over. The question remains does it end Richmond’s hopes of a flag in 2019?
Conventional wisdom says one player in a side of stars does not but Rance is such a vital cog in the Richmond chain that replacing him is nigh impossible.
Certainly former Richmond star David King thinks it impacts the Tigers tremendously.
“This guy’s not a defender. He’s not. He’s more than that,” King told SEN’s Crunch Time.
“The guys you talk about to pick up the slack in David Astbury and Dylan Grimes, they’re dour defenders, they negate. Rance doesn’t negate.
“There’s no greater influence on the offensive scoreboard once an intercept has been won than Alex Rance, he’s been number one in the competition for the last four years at creating a score from his intercept.
“Now that intercept can be on the goal line or it can be pressing up the ground which Richmond love to do.
“I just put a big asterisk on this … what Rance does covers for six players.”
The man they could put there according to Richmond coach Damien Hardwick is youngster Ryan Garthwaite, who has played (checks notes) a total of two senior AFL games.
“We have a young boy Garthwaite who we are really excited about,” Hardwick said on Thursday night.
“It was his first game back today. He’s probably the guy that first comes to mind from that. He’s put in two years hard work in the VFL but been a very valuable player for us.
“We might juggle some things around. Could Noah Balta go back? We aren’t sure. We will take stock tonight and work our way through it tomorrow.”
Spin it however way you want the loss of Rance doesn't look good for Richmond but could they gamble and try new recruit Tom Lynch in the role? He kicked three on debut but the Tigers are not short on firepower up front. Maybe that is also an option.
https://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/talking-points-from-round-one-of-the-2019-afl-season/news-story/a2441cea40662777f375da5589abce97
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When did David King ever play for Richmond? Also who said anything about him ever being a star?
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King was on SEN with Whateley this morning basically saying without saying it directly that we can't win the flag. They are expecting and waiting for us to fall over this week against the Pies before they stick the boots in.
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The Barometer - Round 2
Al Paton
Herald-Sun
25 March 2019
RICHMOND
Can they win it without Rance? That’s the million-dollar question and we probably won’t know the answer until September. The Tigers will hope their incredible defensive system can absorb the loss.
Youngster Ryan Garthwaite has shown in his brief AFL appearances he is capable of doing a job on a key forward, but he can’t replace Rance’s inspiration and leadership. Fortunately, there is another player who could. Tiger fans dreamed for years of Nick Vlastuin becoming a star midfielder, but after 117 games maybe this is the former Vic Metro captain’s calling.
Having Tom Lynch boot 60-plus goals at the other end would also help a lot.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/more-news/barometer-all-the-latest-injury-news-at-your-club-after-round-1/news-story/4d02c49300d3bf6824cafcc66979b29e
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“It’s going to challenge the Tigers, no doubt, but they really do seemingly have a strong defensive mechanism,” Buckley said on SEN’s Whateley.
“The individual that comes in will not replace Alex Rance but he’ll be asked to play his role.
“They will be harder to scout for.
“Rance was always a player that you had to consider with your strategies and your front half but they’ve still got some pretty good players back there that we’ll be considering.
“If you are a Richmond club member, player or supporter, you’d feel like you are going to be worse off because he’s a superstar of the competition.
“But the other thing that can happen and does happen is it galvanises the group and you’ve already seen that. Richmond’s chemistry and feel and connection is really strong.
“They are clearly going to support him and be galvanised by it.”
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2019/03/25/rance-injury-to-galvanise-richmond/
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Judd on FC last night said we can't win it now without Rance.
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Judd on FC last night said we can't win it now without Rance.
This is awesome. All these people writing us off. Just what Dimma likes to work with.
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This week on The Age Real Footy Podcast, Michael Gleeson, Jake Niall and Caroline Wilson discuss the implications it could have for the Tigers all over the ground, not just in defence. Will Tom Lynch be pulled into the ruck? Which young Tiger could step up for Rance? And are we underestimating Dylan Grimes?
https://www.theage.com.au/podcast/the-age-real-footy-podcast/how-will-the-tigers-replace-alex-rance-20190325-p517ei.html
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Judd on FC last night said we can't win it now without Rance.
This is awesome. All these people writing us off. Just what Dimma likes to work with.
Its hilarious really. Like, we CAN'T win the flag?! Full stop? We're as likely as GC or Carl?
I mean, we're less likely, I completely concede that. But, to say black and white - no chance lance is just headline chasing or anti-richmond baloney.
If someone had asked me in the middle or 2017 if we were winning the flag I would have said I can't see it. I feel more confident about us now than back then.
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In fairness to the idiot naysayers,
we'd say the same thing if Max Gawn went down at Melbourne or probably McGovern at WC. pretty natural thing for people who don't support that club to believe really
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The four signs that will expose whether Richmond can win flag without Alex Rance
March 28, 2019
Sarah Olle
FOX SPORTS
Richmond’s first big test without Alex Rance will be on Thursday night when the Tigers take on Collingwood, the club that dismantled their defence in last year’s Preliminary Final.
The adjustment may take some time, particularly given veteran defender Bachar Houli is also missing from the line up because of a hamstring concern.
The likes of Brandon Ellis and Oleg Markov have some big shoes to fill, with dual North Melbourne premiership player David King suggesting there’ll be some telling initial signs.
“I’ve probably stopped short a couple of times of saying, ‘They can’t win without (Rance)’,” King said on Fox Footy’s AFL 360.
“But the more you watch — particularly from behind the goals — it’s not that you can’t replace the player, it’s that he does so much in their system. He is the system.
“He is the reason they play the way they do. They have a forward half press because this guy can do everything.”
King said he’d be watching out for these four signs to ascertain whether the Tigers “could cope” without Rance.
1. “If too many Richmond defenders fly because there’s no trust.
If four go up, the ball spills and it’s an easy goal.”
2. “Where someone gets the position wrong in the system.
Then there’s an easy goal out the back.”
3. “They just get beaten.
Maybe they just get beaten one-on-one which doesn’t happen against Richmond.”
4. “Who is it that’s going to elevate?
Is it (Nick) Vlastuin? Is it (David) Astbury? Is it (Dylan) Grimes? Or is it the group?”
While teams — like West Coast in 2018, who were without three of their best starting 22 including key position player Nic Naitanui — have shown an incredible ability to overcome adversity, King said Richmond’s loss was perhaps the most significant.
“I think we’re going to form some pretty strong opinions in the next couple of weeks,” he said.
“But this is a greater loss than I’ve ever seen to a team in a premiership window.”
https://www.stuff=549295d40180edd4d0f6eb46d0604328-1553730256
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No Rance, no chance? Tigers fail first test without champ
AFL.com.au
Riley Beveridge
Mar 28, 2019 10:50PM
IT IS starting to become the chant from Richmond's nightmares.
"U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A!" the MCG crowd bellowed once again as Collingwood's Mason Cox put through the game's first goal against Richmond on Thursday night.
First test, first question mark for a reshaped and stretched Tigers backline.
In reality, Damien Hardwick perhaps couldn't have imagined a worse possible encounter for his first match without injured five-time All Australian defender Alex Rance.
Not only did the giant 211cm American torch the Tigers in last year's preliminary final, but the Pies' potent forward line now had a new dimension with the addition of Jamie Elliott.
This would challenge a Richmond team without arguably its best and most influential player.
With youngster Ryan Garthwaite also hobbled due to an Achilles injury, the assumption had been that last week's debutant Noah Balta would be pushed into a role in the backline, but that theory was quickly dropped on Wednesday evening when Balta was omitted.
In his place, no like-for-like replacement for either Balta nor Rance was called upon.
Instead, Richmond looked for a fresh approach for its first match in 65 games without Rance, and only its eighth game without the gun backman in its last 164 matches.
But the match-ups, at least from an individual perspective, were relatively similar.
David Astbury retained his job on Cox from last year's September showdown, while Dylan Grimes moved to Rance's direct opponent in Jordan De Goey.
Nick Vlastuin went to Grimes' man, Brody Mihocek, while Nathan Broad was handed the task on Elliott, who spent most of his time as the deepest Collingwood forward last week.
Cox added to his fast start to finish with two goals from seven marks, but the Tigers found it just as difficult to contain the likes of De Goey and Mihocek.
De Goey, in particular, looked every bit a $1 million man.
Perhaps Rance could have locked down on the Magpies' main man more effectively, with the clever forward able to get off the chain to finish with five goals from six marks. Perhaps it wouldn't have made a difference, as De Goey edged closer to superstar status.
Maybe what the Tigers missed more was their best defender’s leadership.
The beauty of Rance is that not only can he quell the opposition's best forward, but he can also rely upon stable deputies in Astbury and Grimes to do that while he organises, intercepts and rebounds if left to his own devices.
Without him, the opponent of Collingwood's lead-up forward attempted to replicate Rance's best traits. At times it was Astbury, at others it was Grimes, or Broad, or Vlastuin.
The only difference was that there was no Rance. And that was telling.
When things went wrong, Collingwood kicked goals in a flurry. Defenders were caught in between coming and going and their opponents, more often than not, made them pay.
That wasn't helped by the lack of pressure coming from higher up the field as Richmond registered its lowest tackle count (finishing with just 33) since round 20, 2015.
"I don't think the back end of our team was the issue tonight," Hardwick said afterwards.
"It was more the front and mid. That's the thing we've got to get better at, and we've got the personnel there that we need. We just need to make sure our system is better.
"In fairness, they were probably quite good until the last 15 minutes of the game. They had 25 scoring shots, but had a lot of those scoring shots late. They overpowered us.
"I thought the guys hung pretty tough. Defensively up the ground, we weren't very good, so we didn't give them a lot of help."
The rush of Collingwood goals in the last quarter – five goals to Richmond's one to be exact – was reflective of a Richmond defence and system in disarray.
It was a suitable end to a worrying Tiger performance.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-03-28/no-rance-no-chance-tigers-fail-first-test-without-champ
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We failed the same test with him.... :shh
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We failed the same test with him.... :shh
Our key backs actually held up well bar astbury. Thought grimes vlas and broad were our best.
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Rance not there was not the reason we lost.
We lost in similar ways last year to Adelaide and West Coast when Rance was playing.
Collingwood played very well. Stuck to their plan and executed it very well. Miminal errors and no pressure from us to force errors.
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Who stole our one wood?
(https://i.ibb.co/NZGjCpZ/7-A56-E6-FA-5-C7-E-462-E-801-C-B2-FC503-EAE5-A.png) (https://ibb.co/t81sKc8)