One-Eyed Richmond Forum
Football => Richmond Rant => Topic started by: one-eyed on October 05, 2022, 12:37:14 PM
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Matthew Lloyd has named the AFL teams he believes can and cannot win the premiership in 2023 at this very early stage.
Watch here: https://twitter.com/traderadio/status/1577471634197385223
Teams that can win the flag
Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Richmond, Fremantle, Collingwood, Sydney, Melbourne, Geelong.
Teams that can’t win the flag
North Melbourne, West Coast, GWS, Essendon, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Gold Coast, St Kilda, Carlton.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2022/10/04/lloyds-eight-teams-that-can-win-the-flag-in-2023-and-why-the-afl-should-be/
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I’m a bit scared about Carlton coming from the clouds
stuff I hope they don’t
Bulldogs and Freo can’t win it
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Poor Brisbane. Not even worth a mention.
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Poor Brisbane. Not even worth a mention.
:rollin
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Poor Brisbane. Not even worth a mention.
:lol :lol :lol
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I think Saints could win it, if Port can. They were top 4 halfway through last year and have had our measure.
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2023 Premiership betting on us suspended?
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fe1LjtwaEAAOkKZ?format=jpg&name=large)
https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl
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Predicting the top eight teams next season. Thoughts?
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fe3Gf4BakAA3eo-?format=jpg&name=small)
https://twitter.com/7AFL/status/1580137315623895041
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I’m a bit scared about Carlton coming from the clouds
stuff I hope they don’t
Bulldogs and Freo can’t win it
They were very unlucky with injuries this year.
As much as I hate to say it they are well set up for next season.
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I’m a bit scared about Carlton coming from the clouds
stuff I hope they don’t
Bulldogs and Freo can’t win it
They were very unlucky with injuries this year.
As much as I hate to say it they are well set up for next season.
Agree
Not a good thing
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BARTEL LABELS RICHMOND A ”GENUINE THREAT” AFTER CAPTURE OF GIANTS PAIR
By Andrew Slevison
SEN
21 October 2022
GWS director Jimmy Bartel believes the acquisition of two Giants midfielders will put Richmond firmly back into premiership contention next season.
The Tigers landed both Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper in the trade period to bolster their midfield which many feel was an area in which they needed to strengthen.
Damien Hardwick’s side fell short in this year’s finals series, losing by two points to Brisbane in a dramatic Elimination Final.
Richmond immediately addressed their need for further midfield quality in the aftermath of that loss and Bartel feels the addition of Taranto and Hopper will have them right in the mix in 2023.
“Next year they are a genuine threat again,” Bartel said on Sportsday.
“Do Hopper and Taranto put them back in the premiership window? Absolutely.
“Because you get a revitalised Dustin Martin. We know Shai Bolton has gone to another level, they just need Dion Prestia’s hamstrings to hold on because he’s an unbelievable two-way player. He runs hard from goal square to goal square, he defends, he uses the ball well.
“I think it puts them right in contention.”
Despite appearing well below his best in 2022, Dustin Martin still poses a threat, especially now that Taranto and Hooper have arrived.
Bartel was asked if the three-time Norm Smith Medallist can still have a significant impact on this group of Tigers.
“Absolutely,” Bartel replied.
“If he’s on the field, he draws that much attention. Even if he’s not at his absolute best, the attention that will be drawn to him allows guys like Bolton a lesser matchup, if you will.”
Geelong great Bartel is also a massive fan of Richmond’s forward line which was led by this year’s Jack Dyer Medal winner Tom Lynch and includes the likes of Bolton, veteran Jack Riewoldt and the emerging Noah Cumberland.
“Tom Lynch had his best season at AFL level, in my eyes, and it was extraordinary,” he said further.
“He was back taking contested marks, his marking went to another level. He averaged the most amount of contested marks, highest average goals per game, even more than the Coleman Medallist (Charlie Curnow), Tom Hawkins, Jeremy Cameron and Harry McKay.
“He was dominant when he was playing, he just missed a few games.
“And Bolton as well. He went from being the unbelievable highlight reel forward to the unbelievable highlight reel forward/midfielder. He ended up kicking 43 goals as both mid and forward.
“103 goals between them (Lynch and Riewoldt) and Lynch missed a number of games.
“They probably need another goalkicker though. Lynch kicked 63 (goals), Bolton 43 and Riewoldt 40, and the one that they did find to come along with them was Noah Cumberland.
“In the last half a dozen weeks, he kicked 19 goals and he’s a difficult matchup. He can actually take the goal square or play as the high half-forward or the third tall.
“So he might be the one that gives Jack some better matchups.”
Bartel predicted where the Tigers might finish in 2023.
“I’ve got them as a top-six side,” he said.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2022/10/20/bartel-labels-richmond-a-genuine-threat-after-capture-of-giants-pair/
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After all that, we’re top 6 Jimmy? Those splinter in your backside must be painful
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Every side’s flag window
David Zita
Fox Sports
October 31st, 2022
When it comes to the AFL world, few concepts are as divisive as the ‘premiership window’.
For several clubs, the exact timing and duration of an opening are incredibly hard to gauge, while for others, they are clear as day - for better or worse.
Below, foxfooty.com.au assesses where each club’s premiership window is at.
RICHMOND
Like Geelong, it won’t be a plunge off a cliff after 2023 and ‘24, but the reality is they will very likely be without Jack Riewoldt, Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin, Robbie Tarrant and possibly Dylan Grimes once 2025 gets underway. With the additions of Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper, the Tigers are primed right now to get one more flag before more significant turnover begins.
Premiership window: 2023-2024
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Premiership Windows:
Collingwood 2023-24
Geelong 2023-24
Richmond 2023-24
Sydney 2023-24
Brisbane 2023-25
Port Adel. 2023-25
Carlton 2023-26
Melbourne 2023-26
W.Bulldogs 2023-27
GWS 2024-26
Fremantle 2024-27
Gold Coast 2024-28
St Kilda 2025-27
Essendon 2025-28
Hawthorn 2025-29
Adelaide 2026-28
North Melb. 2027-28
West Coast 2028-32
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2022-premiership-window-for-every-club-predictions-for-next-season-list-analysis-all-clubs-ranked-2023-preview/news-story/b2a393c394b89d4a05899b78a22d9e39
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I think fox sports have the worst football analysis of all the main stream websites.
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Pretenders or contenders: Early surge or slide verdict on every AFL club for 2023
Max Laughton and David Zita
Fox Sports
November 7th, 2022
THE FLAG CONTENDERS
Geelong, Sydney, Melbourne & Richmond.
...
Now for the climbers, starting with Richmond, who very clearly believe they’ve still got enough talent from their premiership era - and a couple of drafts - that it’s worth sacrificing a bit of their future for the present.
Damien Hardwick’s men didn’t lose a game by more than a goal after Round 6, and in fact only lost four home and away games from that point onwards - to Grand Finalists Sydney and Geelong, and bizarrely to Gold Coast and North Melbourne.
The latter two losses, combined with the draw against Fremantle, all saw the Tigers waste late chances to win; that forced them into an elimination final against Brisbane, which they lost in agonising fashion.
From an analytical perspective, close losses are coin flips, and so you could argue the Tigers simply had a lot of bad luck. They have tried to arrest that bad luck by fixing the one hole in their side, which they were able to work around for three flags but not in the last two seasons - the midfield.
The long-term contracts handed out to Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto are risks in the same way any long-term contract is a risk, but they are both potential A-grade midfielders in the right age bracket. They allow Hardwick to no longer rely on the ailing bodies of Dion Prestia, Trent Cotchin and Dustin Martin; the trio of Hopper, Taranto and Shai Bolton can now be the equivalent.
Most will be tipping a Richmond surge back into the top four in 2023 and we see no reason to be the exceptions.
Full article: https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2022-season-predictions-for-2023-finals-chances-for-every-club-next-season-improve-or-decline-top-eight-contenders/news-story/f55e81632c41e97e55c66245397b6756
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SETTING THE WINS OVER/UNDER FOR THE 2022 AFL TOP 8 TEAMS
SEN
7 November 2022
(https://images.ctfassets.net/u8w3l566ay8a/XJY56qJcUzAA8ZfxfZGXm/dee60ab55a43a51073c88025240384b2/AFL_Club_banners_-_2022-10-12T153956.739.png)
Over/Under: 14.5
Richmond would have comfortably covered a 14.5 line in 2022 had they not lost the unlosable on multiple occasions. In the end, they shot themselves in the foot too often and it cost them.
They enter 2023 with a pair of gun midfield additions in Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto and they will (hopefully) have a fit and firing Dustin Martin back in the mix. The Tiger era has stuttered in recent years, but it is by no means over.
If Richmond has a clean run at it next season, it’s hard imaging they don’t win more games than they did this year.
SEN.com.au consensus: Over
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Over/Under SEN consensus
Geelong 17.5 Under
Melbourne 16.5 Over
Brisbane 15.5 Under
Richmond 14.5 Over
Sydney 13.5 Over
Collingwood 13.5 Under
Fremantle 13.5 Over
W.Bulldogs 13.5 Under
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2022/11/07/setting-the-wins-over-under-for-the-2022-afl-top-8-teams/
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BRAD JOHNSON’S EARLY TOP SIX AND WHY HE CAN’T SEE RICHMOND MISSING
By Andrew Slevison
SEN
19 November 2022
Brad Johnson has made an early prediction on next year’s AFL top six.
The Western Bulldogs champion believes there are four clear-cut teams at the top of the rankings with a tight chasing pack right behind them.
Reigning premiers Geelong and runners-up Sydney are two of those teams alongside Preliminary Finalists Melbourne and Brisbane.
Finding room for the next two was a little bit tricky, Johnson admits.
“You look at the teams that played finals this year and we put four in there automatically - Geelong, Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney,” he said on SEN’s Sportsday.
“It’s tough to knock a couple out but ultimately it’s tough to get in and that’s why the competition the last couple of years has been awesome.
“We go as deep as 13 or 14 teams that can actually play finals footy.”
See Johnson’s early 2023 top six below:
Geelong
Brisbane
Melbourne
Sydney
Richmond
Western Bulldogs
Johnson has Carlton, Fremantle and Collingwood outside the top six but right on the brink.
One of the sides he believes will improve on last year and push into the top six is Richmond who recruited Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper from GWS this trade period.
Add to that a fit Dustin Martin and Johnson believes the Tigers are in good shape heading into 2023.
“When I was going through this, I was thinking how can I leave Richmond out of the top six,” he added.
“Because of the recruits that they’ve got and Dusty coming back and playing footy as well.
“13 wins last year, they finished seventh and they did (lose some close ones), but Shai Bolton went to a level that we absolutely loved, Dan Rioli off half-back, (Josh) Gibcus is one of their key defenders and a really smart, young player.
“I can’t see them not making the top six.”
The Tigers finished the 2022 home and away season in seventh position before losing their Elimination Final to the Lions by two points.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2022/11/18/johnsons-early-top-six-and-why-he-cant-see-richmond-missing/
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Latest Odds:
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20221202/6e283a5bc2f53b31911980bd3f59a37b.jpg)
https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/afl-premiership-winner-2023-6793496
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THE PRESSURE GAUGE: RANKING ALL 18 AFL TEAMS HEADING INTO 2023
By Nic Negrepontis
SEN
14 December 2022
Tier 1: Contend or bust
Richmond
How many more bullets does this Richmond dynasty have left in their chamber?
They let 2022 slip through their fingers, with poor losses to the likes of North Melbourne and Gold Coast ultimately costing them finals positioning.
Tom Lynch looked the best key forward in the AFL when healthy, their backline was built around young talls who improved as the season went on and they have bolstered their midfield with Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper.
They’ll also be hoping for Dustin Martin to get somewhere near his best and help elevate them back among the best teams.
Richmond fans have their flags – but this is a team that should be right back in the mix in 2023 and questions could be asked of Damien Hardwick if things go south.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2022/12/14/the-pressure-gauge-ranking-all-18-afl-teams-heading-into-2023/
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Don't know if we should be excited or wary with all this positive predictions. I agree with the theme too, which also worries me, but the facts would point to a rise up the ladder in 2023. For me, the greatest indicator is depth. I look at our depth across the ground and it is strong in all but one position. Even with the KPF role, we have forward depth that would still prove dangerous to opposition defenses if we were without Tommy for an extended period.
Our backline and midfield depth is crucial. I love the competition for spots. To me, I am really excited how much more quick ball our forward will get from stoppages and contested ball. It's going to be a great year!!!
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Welcome to footy journos during the off-season ...
Who is Geelong's number one challenger heading into the 2023 AFL season?
https://twitter.com/WhateleySEN/status/1605327667968233472
Carlton top of the ladder? And 5-1?
@RalphyHeraldSun has gone out on a limb with his predicted ladder after the first six rounds of 2023.
https://twitter.com/superfooty/status/1605411648206176256
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Welcome to footy journos during the off-season ...
Who is Geelong's number one challenger heading into the 2023 AFL season?
https://twitter.com/WhateleySEN/status/1605327667968233472
Carlton top of the ladder? And 5-1?
@RalphyHeraldSun has gone out on a limb with his predicted ladder after the first six rounds of 2023.
https://twitter.com/superfooty/status/1605411648206176256
They can't even get it right during the season so how can they expect to be right now?
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I’m really scared about Carlton
But think we can definitely win the flag
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I think Carlton will flop again personally.
Guys like McGovern, Martin and Williams hogging way too much cap and not producing the goods.
They have the talent but not the culture or game plan.
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Early AFL predictions for 2023
David Zita, Catherine Healey and Ben Waterworth
Fox Sports
December 22nd, 2022
Tigers jump into the four
Richmond was unlucky first round finals losers in 2022 after some late Joe Daniher heroics at the Gabba. But instead of dwelling on their earlier-than-hoped exit, the Tigers went to work and recruited GWS midfield duo Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto. Their arrivals will ease pressure on veteran Trent Cotchin and allow looming star Shai Bolton to spend more time floating forward where he does his best work. The Tigers managed to sneak into the eight without superstar Dustin Martin for much of the year for personal reasons and injury, so just imagine how high they can climb with the three-time Norm Smith Medallist fit and firing. Jack Riewoldt is still producing while they’ve found youngsters in Noah Cumberland and Josh Gibcus. Even Judson Clarke showed promise. There’s plenty to like at Tigerland in 2023.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-predictions-for-2023-season-trade-news-rumours-kysaiah-pickett-contract-harley-reid-top-draft-prospects-finals-tips/news-story/8dd82fc41e203aa72df1d7f151399bf9
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Hmm it is christmas and in the christmas spirit in response to the title. Not only will we challenge but we will win it if we get a decent run with imjuries especially to our talls.
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Hmm it is christmas and in the christmas spirit in response to the title. Not only will we challenge but we will win it if we get a decent run with imjuries especially to our talls.
My favourite ever claw post. Merry Christmas sir
:gotigers
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Hmm it is christmas and in the christmas spirit in response to the title. Not only will we challenge but we will win it if we get a decent run with imjuries especially to our talls.
Frankly, it’s hard to argue with this post.
My one caveat is that Balta turns up to this pre season fit and hungry. He was almost a liability this year - both being played all over the ground and being unfit which resulted in injury. Play him at full back, get him on those gorillas and build our defence around him.
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Richmond Tigers get top four finish
The reinforced Tigers are set to avenge their 2022 first-round finals exit. Richmond will enter 2023 with former Giants' midfielders Jacob Hopper and Tim Tarantino, joining veteran Trent Cotchin and future star Shai Bolton.
Apart from the recruits, the Tigers will also be bolstered by the return of Dustin Martin, who missed significant time last season due to injury and personal reasons. With the three-time Norm Smith Medal winner back in the fold, Richmond looks like a great wager for 2023.
https://www.gloucesteradvocate.com.au/story/8042930/fearless-forecast-for-afl-2023/
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JADE RAWLINGS PREDICTS THE TOP EIGHT FOR SEASON 2023
By Lachlan Geleit
SEN
12 January 2023
Geelong
Richmond
“I think Richmond are the ones (that can challenge them).
“I’m a bit biased, I spent some time there and I’ve watched them a lot.
“But you bring (Jacob) Hopper and (Tim) Taranto there, they’re A-grade midfielders walking right in.
“I think Richmond are a team that can do some real damage this year.”
Collingwood
Melbourne
Sydney
Brisbane
Fremantle
Carlton
The other contenders:
“I think Port Adelaide are dangerous this year, they could potentially take a spot from Fremantle or Carlton.
“But I only see one coming in this year and that’s Carlton. That leaves the Western Bulldogs out, and I’m a Bulldogs fan but I just don’t know if they’ve got the resources to be where they were a couple of years ago.”
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/01/11/jade-rawlings-predicts-the-top-eight-for-season-2023/
PREMIERSHIP (Sportsbet odds)
$5.50 – (Geelong)
$7 – (Melbourne)
$8 – (Brisbane)
$8 – (Richmond)
$9- (Sydney)
$10 - (Carlton)
$10 - (Collingwood)
$13 – (Port Adelaide)
$15 – (Western Bulldogs)
$17 – (Fremantle)
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/01/12/early-2023-odds-for-afl-premiership-brownlow-rising-star-more/
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Josh Jenkins and Sam Hargreaves on SEN discussing Richmond.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKRYlKnUhbY&t=170s
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David King pumping up Melbourne based on their preseason training.
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After getting around to numerous clubs throughout the pre-season, King is especially liking what he’s seeing from the Demons.
“The competitiveness of the Melbourne footy club session (every session) at this time of year is panels in front of what I’ve seen from the rest,” the dual-premiership Kangaroo told SEN’s Dwayne’s World.
King added that he expects Melbourne and other clubs to adopt similar traits to last year’s premiers going forward.
Playing on quickly from a mark is the one game-style aspect he’s seen from every club across the pre-season.
“That’s the one thing that I am seeing across every club once you’ve won the ball back,” King said.
“Get the ball moving, don’t take that five or six seconds just standing there waiting for a pack to arrive down the wing.
“It’s almost like those days are gone now. Make a decision, pull the trigger. Whether it’s a 15 or 20-metre kick or a longer one, just make that call.
“All clubs are challenging their midfielders to provide an option on the way out and the high half forwards, they’ve been asked to do a hell of a lot of work in the match-sim we’ve seen so far.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/01/20/the-afl-club-that-is-panels-in-front-of-others-with-pre-season-intensity/
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Did David King say Essendon were going to win the flag this time last year?
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Did David King say Essendon were going to win the flag this time last year?
If not it was top 4, same as every other yr.
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WHY RICHMOND’S ADDITIONS WILL HELP TIGERS MAKE “TOP FOUR” PUSH IN 2023
By Lachlan Geleit
SEN
24 January 2023
Do Richmond’s new additions still have them firmly placed inside the premiership window?
Brownlow Medallist Adam Cooney thinks so after taking a close look at their 2023 playing squad.
While some of the stars that drove the 2017, ’19 and ’20 premiership wins are in their twilight years, the emergence of Shai Bolton plus the trade acquisitions of Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto help balance the Tigers’ list.
After crashing out of the finals without a win in 2022, Cooney wouldn’t be surprised to see Richmond reclaim their place inside the top four and mount a charge for their fourth premiership in seven years.
Cooney’s SEN The Run Home co-host Josh Jenkins agreed stating that there’s more “left in the tank” at Punt Road as some veterans return to full fitness.
Cooney: “The Tigers look great on paper and I tend to agree (they’ll be strong in 2023).
“They’ve still got a very strong list and a few younger players taking that next step.”
Jenkins: “From the back end of last year, you’re going to add Dustin Martin, Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto into that squad.
“(Dylan) Grimes didn’t finish the year healthy either, look out, there’s a bit left in the tank there.”
Cooney: “It could be top four for the Tigers if they hold it together.
“I think that if you have a look at their additions and their inclusions plus adding a fit Dusty into that (they’ll be better).
“I was at Punt Road watching them train for a couple of hours, he (Martin) looks as strong and as fit as ever."
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/01/23/why-richmonds-additions-will-help-tigers-make-top-four-push-in-2023/
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Who's the most likely of last year's finalists to miss the 8️⃣ in 2023? (https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/72x72/1f914.png)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fn_8WaUaMAEoAuy?format=jpg&name=large)
https://twitter.com/FootyonNine/status/1621297498018168832
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Collingwood
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Collingwood
outside of having dominant talls they are pretty strong everywhere else but i suppose lack a bit of depth in some areas a bit like us.
Backline consists of Maynard, Quaynor a 1st rounder and starting to live up to it, Moore who would play in every team. Pendlebury who just keeps on keeping on. #4 pick N Daicos and he has already shown why he went so early even if it was as a f/s.
They are hoping i think that Billy frampton can play kpd for them and they do have Howe if need be and a few promising younger defenders. so yeah as i said a bit light on for ready to go talls imo but look good in the other positions.
Midfield consists of Cripps, De Goey, Mitchell, Adams, Lipinski, Sidebottom and of course if things aren't going well they can throw Pendlebury in their. I do like the look of McCrae as well as Draper. not a lot after these though.Again depth may get em but starting mids are pretty decent.
Forward line again lacking top end talls atm. I reckon Mihocek is underrated though and a very servicable key fwd. They bought in McStay who at least will give em a target and a contest fwd. They also got Krueger over from Geelong two seasons ago but he has injury issues. then theres Mason Cox as well nothing great about any of them but they can and do perform a role for them. They also have two or three younger tall fwds who have been around for a few years it would only take for one of them to step up.
Ginnivan, McCreery Elliot WHE , the one id be tempted to play fwd again in Howe. Plus they also got Hill from GWS.
They just made a preliminary final. Injuries will take a toll if they get em and they may well slide anyway but i have a feeling they will remain competetive.
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I've been wanting to answer this question for months.
The answer is "yeah"
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If we had Collingwoods list claw you would be a hell of a lot more critical then your comment above.
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Collingwood
I’d suggest Bulldogs moreso
Will probably be two miss and Collingwood would be my second
Carlton WILL play finals footy
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Almost every year, one of the previous year's top 4 sides crash out and miss the finals while one side comes from nowhere to finish in the top 4. Last year, Port crashed out and Collingwood jumped up.
Pies had a soft draw and a number of close wins last year. So, if they don't get the same run they are a chance to crash straight out. The other one would be the Swans purely based on how others have fared the following year after being thrashed in the GF (GWS, Adelaide).
The rest will be dictated by injuries including us. IMO the Dogs are the most susceptible side to dropping out. They barely scraped in last year.
As far as coming in, Carlton (as much as I'd hate it) and Gold Coast. One of them is likely to finish top 4 based on past history :o.
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Carlton had a soft draw IMO and lost out last l.
Although I do expect them to make finals this year.
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Pies can't possibly win all those close games. I love Fly but will see how he goes when everything starts going the other way. I've got money on pies missing the 8
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I see Freo dropping out.
They had a pretty soft draw last year
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The other one would be the Swans purely based on how others have fared the following year after being thrashed in the GF (GWS, Adelaide).
(http://oneeyed-richmond.com/images/other/RecordAfterGFThrashing.png)
https://www.instagram.com/p/CoTL60SOLAf/
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What a stupid offering by whoever created it
Obviously all the years they didn’t include didn’t suit
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What a stupid offering by whoever created it
Obviously all the years they didn’t include didn’t suit
Which ones are they missing? I haven’t checked it but I think they just included the ones where the loser got smashed By 40+ points.
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What a stupid offering by whoever created it
Obviously all the years they didn’t include didn’t suit
Which ones are they missing? I haven’t checked it but I think they just included the ones where the loser got smashed By 40+ points.
Well we beat Cats by 31 with 16min quarters so if you extrapolate that by 25% it's about 38+ points, bit of a mild spanking if you ask me.
About 101-63 scoreboard if you add it up.
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What a stupid offering by whoever created it
Obviously all the years they didn’t include didn’t suit
The last exception was Geelong making back-to-back Grand Finals in 1994-95 (flogged by 80 points in 94 GF then backed up for another hiding).
From 1996 onwards, it's correct.
https://afltables.com/afl/teams/allteams/gfgames.html
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The Dockers in the prelim... Yep, it's realistic.
I wouldn't be shocked if Geelong, the Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, Collingwood and Carlton joined them.
Nine doesn't go into four.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/02/07/is-it-easier-to-predict-lotto-numbers-than-this-years-premiership-winner/
No surprise which club Kane Cornes left out :whistle.
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Moneyball theory reveals which AFL teams will rise and fall in the 2023 season
Max Laughton
Fox Sports
February 7th, 2023 4:27 pm
For a seventh consecutive year, it’s time to look back in order to look forward.
This is Foxfooty.com.au’s annual Pythagorean wins prediction piece, which reveals the teams who over- and underperformed in the previous season to predict who’ll bounce back or fall flat in the coming year.
The name makes it sound complicated, but all you need to know is it’s accurate. Of the 15 strongest predictions made by this formula since 2010, 13 were correct.
The core behind Pythagorean wins is figuring out who was lucky and who was unlucky in the previous seasons - determining how many games a team “should” have won - and predicting who’ll rise and fall this season as their luck reverts to the mean.
This is what last year's AFL ladder SHOULD have looked like, according to a formula with a very strong track record.
Positive differential (ie +0.29) = lucky;
negative differential = unlucky;
differential over ~1.5 is statistically significant.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FoUna6gaQAAGfoo?format=jpg&name=large)
And this is what it means for 2023 >
THE TWO VERY STRONG PREDICTIONS
Collingwood: Decline
Port Adelaide: Improve
THE THREE LESS-STRONG PREDICTIONS
All three of these teams are on the borderline of statistical significance; these predictions are much stronger when the difference between a team’s actual and Pythagorean wins is over two.
But they are still intriguing sides and worth discussing.
Richmond
2022 record: 13-8-1, 121.6%
2022 Pythagorean wins: 14.98 (gap of 1.48)
2023 prediction: Improve
It’s kind of remarkable that Richmond didn’t win a final last year, given how good they looked over most of the season.
After a 2-4 start with odd losses to St Kilda and Adelaide, they lost just four more games, all of them close - by 6 points against Sydney, 3 points against Geelong, 2 points against Gold Coast and 4 points against North Melbourne.
The latter two, plus the draw against Fremantle, came in a three-week patch which ruined their chances of a home final - and in the end they lost yet another close game in September, by two points to Brisbane at the Gabba.
So we actually prefer the Tigers’ Pythagorean case over the Suns’ and Giants’. They went 2-5 with a draw in close games if you include the elimination final, and more to the point, they were very clearly a much better team after Round 6. They pass the eye test as a team that underperformed its final ladder position and win-loss record.
Oh, and then they added Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto to try and fix a midfield that has long been their weakness (if they had one). We’d argue the defence is slightly shaky, which could cost them a few games, but expect most experts to be tipping a Richmond rise in 2023. (We’ll be one of them.)
Gold Coast: Improve
GWS Giants: Improve
Full article: https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2023-season-preview-pythagorean-wins-analysis-luckiest-and-unluckiest-teams-in-2022-predicted-ladder-risers-and-fallers-stats/news-story/bea0e7710de188974c040c4ac4fda69d
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That time of year: Sportsbet have the AFL season wins totals up.
A bit to ponder...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Foe4vTiacAEduSw?format=jpg&name=medium)
https://twitter.com/rickm18/status/1623469516390010880
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AFL 2023: The Sporting News' 10 bold predictions for upcoming season
Aidan Cellini
SportingNews.com
9 February 2023
Richmond roars back on top
Starting with a premiership winner, Richmond are the pick of the crop for 2023.
Despite losing by two-points in an elimination final to Brisbane last year, the Tigers were tipped to do serious damage in the finals last year.
During 2022, they missed 2017 Brownlow Medallist Dustin Martin for the bulk of the year and were downed by injuries to Dion Prestia, Dylan Grimes and Tom Lynch throughout.
However, what gives them the edge heading into 2023 is they've added experienced GWS midfield duo Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper to the mix.
This allows players like Shai Bolton and Martin to play more aggressively forward of centre.
Their forward line now presents even more of a threat and with Lynch firing on all cylinders (averaged 3.32 goals in 2022) they'll be hard to stop.
Coach Damien Hardwick has developed a system that has proven to work for some time, winning three flags in four years across 2017-2020.
The core of those premiership players are still there and have been topped up by some stars across the journey to put them in the sweet spot for their 14th trophy.
Also at this time, the Tigers have a minimal injury list, with youngster Josh Gibcus the only real concern heading into round one.
Richmond are $8 on TAB to take home the premiership.
https://www.sportingnews.com/au/afl/news/afl-2023-news-season-predictions/jaororqsaqvq4ijxytnhygna
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Will the Tigers' aggressive 2022 recruiting period pay off?
After falling agonisingly short in the elimination final to Brisbane, Richmond looked at ways to improve their list and get back on top, a place so familiar over the past five years.
The Tigers attacked the trade period with aggression, landing GWS duo Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper in monster seven-year deals.
Taranto, 25, and Hopper, 26, are primed to take a club forward into the future, with both establishing themselves as elite midfielders of the competition.
Richmond recognised that their downfall in 2022 was their midfield game, which wasn't helped by the untimely absences of Dustin Martin, Dion Prestia and Trent Cotchin throughout the year.
They were the second worst clearance team in front of only Hawthorn which resulted in a low contested possession count.
Taranto and Hopper are clearance beasts with defensive mindsets which will give freedom to Shai Bolton and Martin to be more aggressive through the middle third of the ground.
Now on paper, Damien Hardwick boasts an extremely deep list, littered with elite talent on all lines.
In 2022, the Tigers were the highest scoring team in the competition and ranked ninth for points against.
Richmond have built a successful brand on pressure and fast ball movement, but improving their clearance game gives them another avenue to score.
Not only that, the club has committed to the Giant pair long-term, meaning they're preparing for life after Cotchin, Martin and Prestia in the coming years.
Tigers fans should be very excited by the potential Taranto and Hopper have and the longevity at Punt Road.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/sport/other/afl-2023-every-club-s-most-burning-question-for-the-upcoming-season/ar-AA17rV5f?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=47bcc997f8944d01a37734f9b136fc46
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“I can’t see them [Port] not finishing top four.” - Matt Rendell
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/02/15/lofty-expectations-set-for-port-adelaide-ahead-of-2023-season/
:huh3
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Richmond: Can They Win The Flag?
Michael Manley
The Sporting Base
February 17, 2023
Our AFL analyst has taken a look at Richmond and put together his case for and against the Tigers winning the flag in 2023.
THE CASE FOR
On paper, they look as strong as any team in the competition with their best 22. They have added Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper who strengthen their on ball line up which has been a weakness. This will also allow Dustin Martin and Shai Bolton to spend more time in the forward line. That pair will also take the pressure off the injury-prone Dion Prestia. Last year their backline was hampered by constant injuries to the likes of Dylan Grimes and Nick Vlaustin. They lost seven games by less than a goal last season so it won’t take much improvement for them to finish at the pointy end of the ladder. They also have key pillars in Tom Lynch and Jack Riewoldt up forward.
THE CASE AGAINST
It’s hard to restart an era and recruiting key players doesn’t always work as the Hawks have found out. The list is aging and do the likes of Jack Riewoldt, Trent Cotchin, Dylan Grimes and even Dustin Martin have another kick in them? Last season they got smashed in contested possession and their backline also ranked poorly.
STRENGTHS
Heaps of great talented footballers headed by Dustin Martin and Shai Bolton and not necessarily in that order these days. Tom Lynch was the best forward in the competition last year and he still has Jack Riewoldt as a handy foil. Young forwards Noah Cumberland and Maurice Rioli junior showed a lot of promise at the end of last season. They also have two great wingmen in Kamdyn McIntosh and Marlion Pickett plus Toby Nankervis and Dion Prestia on the ball in addition to their new recruits Taranto and Hopper. The backline has capable performers in Grimes, Vlaustin, Rob Tarrant and Noah Balta supplemented by the run and carry of Daniel Rioli and Liam Baker.
WEAKNESSES
At times they can be too aggressive and undisciplined. Co-captain Toby Nankervis gave away numerous free kicks. Shai Bolton gave away too many 50s and also didn’t make the most of his opportunities in the forward line. If Nankervis got injured there’s a big query on the ruck depth. Tom Lynch is still the main man in the forward line without another high marking back-up. They also struggle to stop teams which get on runs. Also in close finishes last season they were poor with their last seven losses all less than a goal. Their defence didn’t really gel last season.
Odds (Supplied By TopSport)
PREMIERSHIP: $8
TOP FOUR: $2.20
TOP EIGHT: $1.22
PREDICTION:
Top 4
https://thesportingbase.com/latest_news/richmond-can-they-win-the-flag/
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I have been a RFC supporter since 1965 and a member ever since I could afford it. I cant remember a time when I was more excited about an upcoming season.
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AFL 2023: Jason Akermanis' early predictions for your club
Aidan Cellini
Sporting News
21 February 2023
In an exclusive interview with The Sporting News, Jason Akermanis has offered his early predictions for next year shortly after a very busy trade period.
Whilst some clubs have been believed to have won the period, others have failed and improvement for 2023 doesn't look on the cards.
For instance, Geelong and Richmond have added highly talented players from rival teams.
Fremantle arguably landed the biggest fish in Luke Jackson to go with Jaeger O'Meara.
Collingwood added a quartet of stars to help balance their list.
Whereas St Kilda only added Zaine Cordy and were unable to attract any other stars, including Jordan De Goey who stayed with the Pies.
Akermanis believes that 2023 is even harder to predict than the season just gone with the Cats taking out the premiership.
"If you picked the winner after last season, where it looked like Melbourne wasn’t going to lose for 3/4 years, then you’d be a monkey’s uncle," Akermanis said.
"Arguably the most even competition in the AFL of all time."
.....
Richmond
"The great unknown. They can be a top four side when they play their best footy. I can't see them missing the finals, they're too good."
https://www.sportingnews.com/au/afl/news/afl-2023-jason-akermanis-early-predictions-your-club/aw6tnvaywasbbn7r8kyoxsq6
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If we had Collingwoods list claw you would be a hell of a lot more critical then your comment above.
Probably but i watch us all the time, that mob only when we play em or finals.
Yep i could pick plenty of holes in their list if i wanted.
Bit like us in 17 it was more about the way we played rather than overflowing with top end talent thats how i view em.
In 17 we only really had top end stars in Riewoldt Cotchin, Martin, Prestia, and Rance but we had a lot of decent to good players to compliment them. Some who grew into very good players in the system we had.
Imo last year outside of us they were the only team likely to topple Geelong in the g/f and it was more about the way they played than the players they had.
Unlike us in 2017 i think they already have too many of their better players pushing 30 than 25.
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How many games will your club win in 2023?
Will the Tigers crack 14 wins?
RICHMOND
TAB projected season-win tally: 13.5
The verdict
CLARK: Over
The team which won the flag in 2020 has been harder to read than a set of Ikea instructions over the two years. But there is an edge about their preparation. Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper are waxing in the middle like Mr Miyagi and Dustin Martin has a full pre-season under the belt on a forward flank. Could kick 40 goals, Dusty. Defensively there have been some question marks but Noah Balta should settle in the back half.
GARDINER: Over
Back on the upward curve and love the inclusions of hard-edge midfielders Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper. Dylan Grimes needs to stay on the park. Tiger time, again.
Will Richmond win over 13.5 games in 2023?
Yes
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/afl-2023-crystal-ball-every-clubs-win-tally-for-2023-predicted-vote-to-have-your-say/news-story/74a582fba3a4b89f3382033469e0b10b
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If there's one thing we need to fix from last year, it's the ability to close out games and not throw them away. We were third for time in front in 2022 yet we wasted it.
Time in Front for the 2022 @AFL H&A season
71% MELB
69% GEEL
63% RICH
60% BRIS
52% SYD
51% FREM
50% WBD
50% CARL
49% PORT
48% COLL
45% HAW
40% STK
38% GWS
37% GCS
35% ADEL
30% ESS
18% NTH
14% WCE
https://twitter.com/sirswampthing/status/1628248140653686784
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“I’m tempted to say the Pies can win the flag this year because they are clearly the most dangerous team in the competition with the footy, very hard to defend that springboard off half-back,” David King said on SEN Breakfast.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/02/25/why-king-believes-collingwood-can-absolutely-win-the-flag-in-2023/
:chuck
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It's amazing these "experts" are ignoring the fact that they won't be winning 11 games by under a goal again...
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It's amazing these "experts" are ignoring the fact that they won't be winning 11 games by under a goal again...
Yep. They lost the close game that mattered in the finals. The Pies won't have the soft draw they had last year either.
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It's amazing these "experts" are ignoring the fact that they won't be winning 11 games by under a goal again...
Yep. They lost the close game that mattered in the finals. The Pies won't have the soft draw they had last year either.
Yep.
Honestly I don't rate them that much at all. Forward line still sucks.
People said we were kissed on the Willy by fate in 2017 but I reckon the pies had a better run with luck last year. 2023 will be hard on them.
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Perth sports radio - Will Schofield has Richmond finishing third on the ladder… (https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/72x72/1f633.png) We all know what that means! (https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/72x72/1f605.png)
https://twitter.com/FoxyHardy/status/1629672683268104192
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Buckley keen to see what resurgent Tigers will do
Roger Vaughan
AAP
February 28, 2023 4:12PM
Richmond's recruiting and their ongoing strong AFL culture has Nathan Buckley bullish about what the resurgent Tigers will achieve this season.
The former Collingwood coach also expects his old club to continue on from their remarkable rise last season and has no doubt premiers Geelong will remain in flag contention.
Collingwood's stunning season last year, when they shot up from second last in 2021 to a narrow preliminary-final loss, will have all clubs hopeful of what can be achieved this season.
When asked who the next Magpies might be, Buckley had a more narrow range of potential ladder improvement.
After missing the finals in 2021, the Tigers made an elimination final last season and then made it clear they think their premiership window remains open, by recruiting GWS stars Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper.
"They're still finalists in their own right, but I think Richmond, their capacity to rebuild their team on the fly with Hopper and Taranto coming in and despite (Jason) Castagna's retirement - they still have a really good structure, a really good connection in the football club," Buckley said.
"I'd expect them to be right up there at the end of the year."
https://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/afl/buckley-keen-to-see-what-resurgent-tigers-will-do-c-9895208
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We will win the flag
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Fox Footy expert Jordan Lewis predicts his former club Melbourne to win its second flag in three seasons.
He also predicts Essendon and Carlton to jump into the top eight this season, with 2022 finalists Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs to miss out.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/teams/essendon-bombers/afl-predictions-2023-finals-essendon-to-play-finals-predicts-jordan-lewis-brad-scott-melbourne-to-win-flag/news-story/4ac70143b6a8e74cbce52a077ef97443
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Only a practice match but until we see the names on paper deliver as a team on field in the real stuff with the intensity required then the talk of being a contender needs to be put by the wayside.
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No pressure no flag. In fact if we don’t bring back our pressure game we will struggle to make finals.
:help
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I take zero notice of the practice games.
Don't think we've taken them seriously in a long time.
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Practise game or not we had our pants pulled down. It was embarrassing. We are not in the same league at Geesook and the Shemons
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Dwayne Russell’s predicted Top Eight
“They (the Tigers) look like a team that can flick the switch on what I saw on Saturday against Melbourne, they’re kind of just hoping they can flick the switch on, work into their form and by Round 10 they’ll be maybe where Melbourne is right now.
1 - Brisbane (premiers)
2 - Melbourne (runner-up)
3 - Geelong
4 - Western Bulldogs
5 - Sydney
6 - Richmond
7 - Collingwood
8 - Fremantle
———————————————————————————————
9 - Carlton
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/03/06/dwayne-russell-names-his-top-eight-premier-and-the-nine-teams-that-can-win/
---------------------------------------------
Nathan Buckley's Top 8
Geelong 16-19 wins
Melbourne 15-18
Brisbane 15-18
Sydney 15-18
Richmond 12-16
Bulldogs 11-16
Collingwood less than last year (<16)
Fremantle
--------------------
Carlton 10-14
Port Adel. 10-16
GWS 8-14
Bottom 4:
St Kilda
Essendon
Hawthorn
North Melbourne
https://megaphone.link/NTETP7574447241
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We're three big guys short of a premiership: KPF, KPD, ruck. Unless someone like a Miller really stands up, Balta re-emerges as anything other than a panic merchant, and Soldo can get back to 2019 serviceability, then there's a good chance we just don't have the cattle this year. Hell I'd even let Riewoldt play in the 2s and play Lynch CHF and Martin FF and go small again like previous years.
Something doesn't quite feel right. Too many slow, tired bodies whose names look good on paper but just don't have the spring in their step.
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Open season: Why half the AFL clubs can win the flag
Jake Niall
The Age
March 6, 2023
In 2023, probably for the first time since the competition expanded to 18 teams, at least half of the AFL clubs will enter the season believing that, if all goes well, they could win the premiership.
This is not the norm. Typically, there are only four to six teams that are clear contenders before the first bounce and, once the season progresses, there’s usually a bolter that storms up the ladder from the bottom six or eight, such as Collingwood last year and Richmond in 2017 (they won the flag).
Where 2023 appears to differ from seasons past is the sheer number of teams that can’t be ruled out of premiership contention.
Consider last year’s top eight.
Geelong, Melbourne and the Brisbane Lions should contend for the premiership in 2023, simply based on experience and talent.
Sydney, Collingwood, Richmond and the Western Bulldogs aren’t as clear contenders as the aforementioned trio, but they can’t be dismissed. Given a charmed run, all can reach the grand final.
So that’s seven clubs that can win it. Of that group, Richmond are the most doubtful; recruiting Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto addresses one (midfield) need, but the Tigers have several veterans on the downswing, including Trent Cotchin, Jack Riewoldt and Dusty Martin.
“Richmond could go one of two ways – they could go all the way to a grand final, or they could drop out of the eight,” opined ex-Lion great and Fox Footy pundit Jonathan Brown.
At the Fox Footy launch last week, I asked Jason Dunstall and David King how many sides could win it, if all went swimmingly. Dunstall started with six, but as he rattled off clubs, he ended up with eight – Geelong, Brisbane, Melbourne, Carlton, Fremantle, Richmond, Collingwood and “maybe Port”. King thought up to 10 teams were flag-capable, including Port.
Jake Niall's predicted ladder
1 Melbourne
2 Brisbane Lions
3 Geelong
4 Western Bulldogs
5 Carlton
6 Sydney
7 Collingwood
8 Richmond
-------------------------------
9 Fremantle
10 Port Adelaide
11 GWS
12 Gold Coast
13 St Kilda
14 West Coast
15 Adelaide
16 Essendon
17 North Melbourne
18 Hawthorn
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/afl/open-season-why-half-the-afl-clubs-can-win-the-flag-20230303-p5cpab.html
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Fox Footy is tipping us to finish between 4th to 7th.
Their full season preview discussion of Richmond is from 27:15 to 32:00 min marks:
LISTEN: https://omny.fm/shows/fox-footy-podcasts/fox-footy-podcast-2023-season-preview-part-2-h-to
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Michael Barlow, Scott Cummings and Tim Gossage have named their Top 4s for the 2023 season.
Barlow’s Top 4
1. Brisbane
2. Geelong
3. Western Bulldogs
4. Sydney
Melbourne
Carlton
GWS
Richmond
Cummings’ Top 4
1. Brisbane
2. Melbourne
3. Richmond
“Richmond are the ones who are going to really improve this year.”
4. Fremantle
Gossage’s Top 4
Brisbane
Western Bulldogs
Melbourne
Geelong
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/03/07/barlow-cummings-and-gossage-name-their-top-4s-for-2023/
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POWER RANKING ALL 18 AFL TEAMS HEADING INTO ROUND 1
By Nic Negrepontis
SEN
8 March 2023
The AFL season is eight days away and we now have all possible information available from the off-season to make some judgements.
With that in mind, we have crafted our AFL team power rankings at the conclusion of the summer and going into Round 1.
We have factored in last year’s ladder positions, the trade period, draft, off-season injuries, both pre-season games and, of course, the general vibes.
Here’s how things sit!
1. Geelong
2. Brisbane
3. Melbourne
4. Sydney
5. Western Bulldogs
6. Fremantle
7. Collingwood
8. Richmond
The Tigers got run out of Casey Fields by Melbourne and Dion Prestia and Jayden Short are touch-and-go for Round 1, but the Tigers know how to time a run across a season. If they’re back in the premiership mix, thanks to a strong trade period, they’re not going to be too bothered about hitting next Thursday night at full steam.
9. Carlton
10. Adelaide
11. Port Adelaide
12. GWS Giants
13. St Kilda
14. Gold Coast
15. West Coast
16. Hawthorn
17. Essendon
18. North Melbourne
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/03/07/power-ranking-all-18-afl-teams-heading-into-round-1/
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Expert verdict on all 18 teams
Fox Footy
March 8th, 2023
RICHMOND
LAST YEAR: 7th and lost elimination final, 13-1-8, 121.6%
Brad Johnson:
They’ll be strong, off the back of what they were able to get to last year and then off the back of (Tim) Taranto and (Jacob) Hopper adding into the midfield.
It adds a layer of strength straight away that I think they need - though in saying that even Taranto and Hopper and a couple of the other mids from the first practice game, a real eye-opener in terms of working from the contest.
Melbourne destroyed them out at Casey. They’ll look at that and have to do a lot of work mentally over the next couple of weeks to get themselves set.
Leigh Montagna:
It’s going to be fascinating how that forward line works. Offensively it sounds pretty good but just defensively I’ve got some slight questions; when you look at (Noah) Cumberland, (Trent) Cotchin, (Dustin) Martin, Shai Bolton when he’s down there and (Maurice) Rioli, their pressure ratings are all below average or average.
They’re not elite pressure and when you think of Richmond’s premiership teams and that relentlessness in the front half, it was off the back of (Jason) Castagna, (Dan) Butler, (Daniel) Rioli when he used to play there, (Shane) Edwards, Jack Graham.
Last year they struggled to stop the opposition moving the ball from one end of the field to the other and their pressure rating was poor. Have they addressed that?
David King:
I think Damien Hardwick has been operating off two of the three facets of the game; he’s never really been able to compete with the contested and clearance angle.
You get Hopper and Taranto in and all of a sudden, you can beat opposition teams with all three modes of the game - defence, on offence and at clearance.
I think Taranto’s a total star and he’s going to have a huge impact on the Tigers; I think he’s going to be considered a top-five player in the competition at the end of the year.
Predicted finish
Johnson: Finals
King: Top 4
Montagna: Finals
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2023-season-preview-every-club-analysed-by-fox-footy-experts-predicted-ladder-premier-risers-sliders-tips/news-story/83c7f53e68f419fe5233e118a009aa21
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Have never rated Montagna
And his MRJ comments just solidified that
NFI :wallywink
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Mrj low pressure didn't he basically win that stat last year?
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AFL Team Wins Over/Unders 2023 best bets: Richmond
Jaymz Clements
Codesports.com.au
March 9, 2023
RICHMOND TIGERS
Last Year: 13-8-1 (7th)
The rich get Richmond-er.
Despite the retirements of stalwarts like Shane Edwards, Josh Caddy and Kane Lambert, the Tigers plundered the team they beat in the 2019 Grand Final – Greater Western Sydney – one more time in trading for Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto to bolster its midfield.
It ought to solidify Richmond’s midfield depth, and they’ll need it with a tough start to the season with their traditional opener against Carlton then games against Collingwood, the Dogs, Sydney and Melbourne.
But from round seven on, the Tigers have a chance to rip off six wins in eight games and themselves up for a stretch run where they’d also like their chances to win seven of their final eight. 13 games against teams that didn’t make last year’s eight certainly helps matters.
* Richmond – Top 4 finish – $2.40 (via bet365)
Crucially they double up games against mid-tier teams like West Coast, St Kilda, Port and the Bulldogs: if the Tiges can take care of business there as well as against other lower-level teams like Essendon, Adelaide, Gold Coast and North and split wins with Sydney, they should springboard to 14+ wins handily.
2023 Win/Loss Prediction: 16 Wins 7 Losses
THE PICK: OVER 14.5 wins – $2 (via bet365)
https://www.codesports.com.au/bet/afl/tips/afl-team-wins-overunders-2023-best-bets-port-adelaide-richmond-st-kilda-sydney-west-coast-western-bulldogs/
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Have never rated Montagna
And his MRJ comments just solidified that
NFI :wallywink
Mrj low pressure didn't he basically win that stat last year?
While he was ordinary with the ball last weekend, Maurice had the most pressure acts on the ground. It was daylight to the next Tiger which was the problem :P.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FqaIpn9aEAAJD8g?format=jpg&name=large)
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and if MRJ goes down with an injury who do we have? Hopper? Ross? Clarke
How we did not go for a cheap bobby hill type or something is beyond me.
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AFL captains' tips for 2023
afl.com.au
9 March 2023
All 18 captains were polled ahead of the 2023 season, with eight skippers backing the Cats to return to the Grand Final this year, while Brisbane (four votes), Richmond and Sydney (one vote each) also won support.
1) Which seven other clubs do you think can make this year's top eight?
17 – Brisbane
16 – Geelong Cats, Richmond
15 – Sydney Swans, Melbourne
12 – Fremantle
11 – Collingwood
9 – Carlton
6 – Western Bulldogs
5 – Port Adelaide
2 – Gold Coast
1 – St Kilda, Adelaide
2) Which other club is most likely to reach the Grand Final?
8 – Geelong Cats
4 – Melbourne, Brisbane Lions
1 – Richmond, Sydney Swans
4) Which player from another club do you think will win the 2023 Coleman Medal?
6 – Jeremy Cameron, Tom Lynch
1 – Nat Fyfe, Harry McKay, Jack Gunston, Tom Hawkins, Charlie Curnow, Aaron Naughton
6) Other than your own club, which AFLW club will reach this year's Grand Final?
6 – Melbourne, Brisbane
2 – Adelaide
1 – North Melbourne, Sydney, Fremantle, Richmond
https://www.afl.com.au/news/880865/grand-finalists-brownlow-top-eight-skippers-tips-for-2023
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From Damian Barrett's 'Sliding Doors' column:
(https://resources.afl.com.au/photo-resources/2020/11/17/8a4c2df0-2497-41a0-85ac-8cab8feed48a/richmond.jpg?width=952)
IF ...
I embarrassed myself in declaring the Tigers were no chance of winning the 2019 premiership the day after Alex Rance broke down in round one ...
THEN ...
here we go again. They’re not winning the 2023 flag. Not even confident they’ll make the eight.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/881031/if-the-thoughts-of-ross-the-boss-were-mistakenly-broadcast-then
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David King's top 8
Melbourne
Brisbane
Richmond
Collingwood
Bulldogs
Sydney
Geelong
Carlton
“I’m a huge Richmond believer. I still think they’ve got a system many teams struggle to stop. The additions of these two midfielders, Richmond has never relied on winning clearances to become a contender, they’ve been the intercept kings who punish on turnover, and now they have another way to win. They’re third for me.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/03/09/david-king-makes-his-top-8-prediction-for-the-2023-season/
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From Damian Barrett's 'Sliding Doors' column:
(https://resources.afl.com.au/photo-resources/2020/11/17/8a4c2df0-2497-41a0-85ac-8cab8feed48a/richmond.jpg?width=952)
IF ...
I embarrassed myself in declaring the Tigers were no chance of winning the 2019 premiership the day after Alex Rance broke down in round one ...
THEN ...
here we go again. They’re not winning the 2023 flag. Not even confident they’ll make the eight.
Damo should be embarrassed.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/881031/if-the-thoughts-of-ross-the-boss-were-mistakenly-broadcast-then
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Will see how we go unless the pressure comes back, and we stop teams in transition and clean up our skills and defence wise we tighten up we will get found out.
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Malthouse: Why topped-up Tigers will lose finals spot to Blues
(https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1634364510126608384/EoaCHeoA?format=jpg&name=small)
Mick Malthouse has analysed the contenders for the premiership and the wooden spoon in his 2023 season preview. He’s predicting one change to last year’s top eight that might cause a stir.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/mick-malthouse-2023-afl-preview-topeight-changes-who-will-contend-who-will-struggle/news-story/9b573e7e63ee91be134fe54a8a381469
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“THIS WILL BE A HISTORIC YEAR”: CAMPBELL BROWN MAKES BOLD PRE-SEASON PREDICTION
“I think Brisbane are the team to beat right now as we speak, Richmond and Melbourne are snapping at their heels and I think the Cats will be around the mark again, I don’t think they’re going to have a premiership hangover.”
With the Blues and Suns jumping in, Brown expects Collingwood and Fremantle to be the two teams that slide out.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/03/11/this-will-be-a-historic-year-campbell-brown-makes-bold-pre-season-prediction/
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Malthouse: Why topped-up Tigers will lose finals spot to Blues
(https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1634364510126608384/EoaCHeoA?format=jpg&name=small)
Mick Malthouse has analysed the contenders for the premiership and the wooden spoon in his 2023 season preview. He’s predicting one change to last year’s top eight that might cause a stir.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/mick-malthouse-2023-afl-preview-topeight-changes-who-will-contend-who-will-struggle/news-story/9b573e7e63ee91be134fe54a8a381469
Mick Malthouse is confident Carlton will be successful in 2015, saying hard to see team lose
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/teams/carlton/mick-malthouse-is-confident-carlton-will-be-successful-in-2015-saying-hard-to-see-team-lose/news-story/c00b02acb255d33b0593c490c36f89a1
Thankfully, Micky's predictions are pretty woeful. The Blues won the wooden spoon that year with just 4 wins :lol.
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and if MRJ goes down with an injury who do we have? Hopper? Ross? Clarke
How we did not go for a cheap bobby hill type or something is beyond me.
Going by the North match sim game and the training photos, we're trialing Mansell as a small forward :-\.
(https://resources.richmondfc.com.au/photo-resources/2023/03/09/c4aa03e1-a0be-40d4-8790-d408d2f62611/AFLTrainingMarch9-5030-Dustin-Martin-Jack-Riewoldt-Rhyan-Mansell-Shai-Bolton-Tom-Lynch.jpg?width=580)
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Will see how we go unless the pressure comes back, and we stop teams in transition and clean up our skills and defence wise we tighten up we will get found out.
So true.
We are better than most teams but will end up either scraping in or missing out if we aren’t prepared to play our way returning to the pressure beast that every team were completely bamboozled on how to stop.
From our preseason showing we are miles away from that but it’s a long season so I hope we can spice things up when we play the Cheats.
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Kane Cornes' 2023 ladder prediction
1 Geelong
2 Brisbane Lions
3 Melbourne
4 Western Bulldogs
5 Sydney
6 Fremantle
7 Collingwood
8 Adelaide
9 Carlton
10 Richmond
11 Port Adelaide
12 GWS
13 Gold Coast
14 Essendon
15 St Kilda
16 Hawthorn
17 West Coast
18 North Melbourne
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/bad-to-disaster-kane-cornes-afl-crystal-ball-spells-doom-for-ross-lyon-s-st-kilda-20230310-p5cr03.html
Caroline Wilson's 2023 ladder prediction
1 Melbourne
2 Richmond
3 Brisbane Lions
4 Geelong
5 Carlton
6 Sydney
7 GWS
8 Port Adelaide
9 Western Bulldogs
10 Collingwood
11 Fremantle
12 Gold Coast
13 Adelaide
14 St Kilda
15 West Coast
16 Essendon
17 Hawthorn
18 North Melbourne
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/why-i-m-tipping-collingwood-to-miss-the-eight-caroline-wilson-s-afl-season-crystal-ball-20230310-p5cqzw.html
Jake Niall's 2023 AFL ladder prediction
1 Melbourne
2 Brisbane Lions
3 Geelong
4 Western Bulldogs
5 Carlton
6 Sydney
7 Collingwood
8 Richmond
9 Fremantle
10 Port Adelaide
11 GWS
12 Gold Coast
13 St Kilda
14 West Coast
15 Adelaide
16 Essendon
17 North Melbourne
18 Hawthorn
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/they-ll-scare-the-hell-out-of-sides-why-jake-niall-says-the-blues-could-steal-a-grand-final-spot-20230310-p5cqzy.html
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Josh Jenkins can see a world where Richmond misses the eight (https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/72x72/1f440.png)
Watch here: https://twitter.com/SENBreakfast/status/1635109675602702336
---------------------------------
On the Tigers, Jenkins is worried about their heavy reliance on aging key players.
“Jack Riewoldt is 34, he’s going to have to hold down key position. Trent Cotchin is about to be 33. Dustin Martin is 31 off the back of an indifferent season. Dylan Grimes is 31 and Tom Lynch has had his fair share of injuries and is 30,” he said.
“There’s not much beneath Lynch and Riewoldt in the forward half. If they lose one or both they’re in trouble.
“I’ve got Richmond out (of the top eight). It’s going to be tight. These teams might miss out on percentage.”
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/03/12/jenkins-three-teams-to-drop-out-of-the-eight-in-2023/
----------------------------------------------
Josh Jenkins has already revealed that he has three teams falling out of the eight for the 2023 season, but who replaces them?
With Fremantle, Richmond and Sydney coming out, Jenkins has picked three teams to bolt up in Carlton, Gold Coast and West Coast.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/03/12/former-crows-three-afl-finals-bolters-for-2023/
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Former Carlton star Bryce Gibbs has revealed his top eight prediction for the 2023 season.
He is predicting only the one change to the finalists for this season, with the Blues replacing Collingwood.
Gibbs sees Richmond as the team who could bolt into the top four.
“My top four, I’m going to give you Brisbane, Melbourne, Richmond and Geelong,” he told SEN’s Saturday’s in SA.
“Richmond obviously added to the midfield, they’ve got a healthy Dustin Martin, they look very dangerous and they play that kamikaze and quick off turnover footy that is hard to stop.
As for the rest of the eight, Gibbs has the Blues, Swans, Dogs and Dockers filling out finals.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/03/12/former-carlton-star-makes-his-top-eight-prediction-for-2023/
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As for Adelaide legend Mark Ricciuto, he’s tipping Richmond to surge and claim another premiership under Damien Hardwick.
“It’s an open field but I’ll go with the Tigers,” Ricciuto told foxfooty.com.au’s David Zita.
“A fit Dusty Martin who plays forward more with the midfield recruits and kicks 50-plus goals.”
FOX FOOTY AFL PREMIERS PREDICTIONS 2023
Dermott Brereton: Melbourne
Nathan Buckley: Geelong Cats
Nick Dal Santo: Melbourne
Ben Dixon: Geelong Cats
David King: Melbourne
Brad Johnson: Brisbane Lions
Jordan Lewis: Melbourne
Alastair Lynch: Geelong Cats
Garry Lyon: Melbourne
Leigh Montagna: Melbourne
Cameron Mooney: Melbourne
Matthew Pavlich: Melbourne
Mark Ricciuto: Richmond
FINAL TALLY
Melbourne – 8
Geelong Cats – 3
Brisbane Lions – 1
Richmond – 1
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/the-clear-afl-flag-favourite-and-why-its-a-fail-if-they-fall-short-13-experts-reveal-premiership-tips/news-story/ffb4c460de86ee93fa9827d459274ea8
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Full predicted ‘23 AFL ladder
Max Laughton
Fox Sports
March 13th, 2023
Let’s work out the tricky stuff first: Who’s going to miss out.
It’s predicted AFL ladder season, which guarantees a bunch of educated guesses which will all be wrong to some degree.
But there’s no point being boring with predictions — and there’s no point playing it safe. Especially because there is always more change than you think.
Rule 1: On average there will be three changes to the top eight (teams dropping in/climbing out), and at a minimum two.
And when we say the minimum is two changes, we mean it. Since the top eight was introduced in 1994 there have been at least two changes every year. (The average, to be precise, is 2.8 changes.)
Rule 2: On average one team that missed the finals the year before will climb into the top four.
While Rule 2 has not been right every single year like Rule 1 has, it has happened for eight seasons in a row. (The average is 1.2 teams that make the leap from non-finalist to top four.)
These rules give us some structure. They tell us that, even though it’s very hard to look at the ladder and pick which teams will drop out (especially this year), you need to find at least two if you’re any hope of being correct.
Unsurprisingly, it’s more likely that teams in the fifth to eighth range will drop out than teams from the first to fourth range. To be precise, of the 79 teams that have made the eight then dropped out the next year, 58 had finished 5th-8th, while just 21 had finished 1st-4th.
The numbers are very similar when you look at finals results: 24 teams made a prelim or and then missed the next year’s finals, compared to 55 teams that had lost in the first two weeks of September.
So back to Rule 1, and our most likely candidates to drop out of the top eight are Fremantle, Brisbane, Richmond and the Western Bulldogs, plus Melbourne given it lost in the semi-finals.
We’re going to rule the Demons out right away because they just seem way too good not to fix whatever ailed them in their post-bye slide.
The Lions and Tigers are in a similar group: Strong performers over the last four years who bolstered their midfields across the off-season (Brisbane with Josh Dunkley and Will Ashcroft; Richmond with Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper), which should in turn help protect their defences, which leaked some big scores at times last year.
In contrast the Dockers and Bulldogs kind of shuffled some pieces around in the trade period.
So based on all of that, we’d be tipping the Bulldogs and Fremantle to drop out of the eight. Simple?
Well … then there’s Collingwood.
Last year’s Collingwood was a 16-win team with the percentage of a 12-win team. We’d put them somewhere in-between that in reality – just as good as the Fremantle/Brisbane/Richmond/Bulldogs quartet across the course of the season, and they peaked in September (which is a damn good time to peak).
They could easily be a better team this year yet win fewer games. And they could be this year’s Port Adelaide, who went from 17-5 in 2021 (with the AFL’s best record in close games) to 10-12 in 2022 (with the AFL’s worst record in close games).
So are we tipping the Magpies to actually drop out of the eight? Let’s see …
MAX LAUGHTON’S PREDICTED 2023 LADDER
1. Geelong Cats
2. Melbourne
3. Brisbane Lions
4. Carlton
5. Richmond
If you read our Power Rankings over the course of last season you know we were leading the Richmond Respecters brigade.
Despite sitting outside the eight as late as Round 20, and even after their weird winless run which saw them draw with Fremantle and lose to the Suns and Kangaroos, we believed in the Tigers. After all, after the Anzac Eve game, they didn’t lose again by more than a kick.
The problem was they lost enough games by a kick to tumble out of the finals without winning one. If they’d gotten over the line against Brisbane, they definitely could’ve beaten Melbourne (especially the version we saw in that semi-final) and made a prelim … but they didn’t.
So it’s that belief in this Tigers group, combined with the obviously fantastic additions of Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper into the midfield, that have us (like most of the AFL commentariat) expecting a rise in 2023.
But we’re not quite sure how high.
The Tigers feel very much like Brisbane: A scoring machine with a bolstered midfield that needs to figure out a way to stop the opposition from scoring, too.
For Damien Hardwick’s men in 2022, it was a drop in pressure combined with being bottom six in the AFL for scores per inside 50 against. Once you got it forward against Richmond, you could hit the scoreboard. Dylan Grimes was still very good (when healthy) one-on-one, but Robbie Tarrant was slightly underwhelming.
So we have question marks over their defensive stocks. But again, like with the Lions, that’s a problem they need to address in time for the finals, not across the entire season.
The Tigers are going to score a lot of points and win a lot of games in the home and away campaign, because that’s what they did last year (the first six weeks excluded) – they won eight games by five goals or more. As we often say, the sign of a good team is winning, but the sign of a great team is winning by a lot.
Can they stop a Geelong, Melbourne or Brisbane in September? That we’re not so sure about. But they should get the chance to show us.
6. Sydney Swans
7. Port Adelaide
8. Fremantle
-----------------------
9. Collingwood
10. Western Bulldogs
11. Gold Coast Suns
12. Adelaide Crows
13. St Kilda
14. West Coast Eagles
15. GWS Giants
16. Essendon
17. North Melbourne
18. Hawthorn
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/blues-make-the-leap-power-surge-and-the-magpies-miss-full-predicted-23-afl-ladder/news-story/91ee037e7322fd79ebca8715bc494980
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CAN TWO STAR RECRUITS HELP LEAD A RICHMOND RESURGENCE?
Jonathan Brown: “Richmond have been buoyed by the pick-ups of (Tim) Taranto and (Jacob) Hopper to bolster that midfield. (But) I’m a bit worried about the Tiges.
"A lot of people have been bullish in the footy industry. They were heavy scorers last year along with Brisbane, probably should have beaten Brisbane in that first final, but there are quite a few veterans – stars of the team, those A-graders – that for Richmond still to be successful, they still need to be playing at A-grade level. And I’m not sure they’re capable of that anymore. We haven’t seen it from Dusty (Martin) the last 12 or 18 months. (Trent) Cotchin, (Jack) Riewoldt, Martin, (Dylan) Grimes, (Toby) Nankervis, (Tom) Lynch who won the best and fairest, (Dion) Prestia – they’ve got eight players who are 30-plus.
"Now you could say Geelong had nine last year, but who’s the next wave of the younger A-grader coming through? I look at Geelong and think (Sam) De Koning, (Tyson) Stengle, (Max) Holmes. They picked up three A-graders coming through.
"Who are those at Richmond? They’re A-graders on paper, but I’m not sure they’re capable of an A-grade every week … I just saw it first-hand as a young player at the Lions. I saw my star teammates – probably five or six of them, certainly to the outside world – within half a season they were gone. The cliff just came and all of a sudden, five or six of those are gone and you’re back to the bottom half of the ladder.”
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-predictions-news-2023-richmond-finals-chances-pass-marks-for-coaches-on-the-couch-panel-discussion-questions/news-story/fb96612736e43bea294a333fce6fc205
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I reckon it is going to take us some games to get the balance right around stoppages and going forward. As usual, a lot depends on a healthy list. We could easily be 2-4 or 3-3 after 6 games. I hope as we head into the last 6 games, we'll get it up and going. With a slow start, I'm expecting us to be battling for that 4th spot with a number of other clubs.
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It really comes down to three things - 1. Midfield Connection, 2. Injuries, 3. Development.
Midfield Connection
Taranto and Hopper are massive inclusions for us. Our midfield-contested work has always been a weakness for us. Where our midfield was strong though was with our outside defensive work. We cut off the opposition handballs out of stoppages. We turned the ball over through pressure around the contest. We clogged up the corridor and 'fat side' forcing teams to kick long to a contest. Over the pre-season, I saw us winning more contested ball but turning the ball over and stopping the opposition's ball movement less. It's the balance and connection of our new midfielders that is causing this. We need Hopper and Taranto to quickly learn our system, shift more of their focus to turning the ball over and fitting into the zone, if we can truly benefit from their inclusions. It's no use winning more of the ball at stoppages if we score less from turnovers. It's robbing Peter to pay Paul.
I'm sure they will find a better connection and balance as they ease into the season and learn to work with our other midfielders.
Injuries
It's an easy statement to make and one that holds true for every season and for every team but a healthy list means the difference between top 4 or bottom 8 for us this year. Given our aging list profile, injuries to our older players are becoming more likely. A prolonged injury to any of Lynch, Grimes, Prestia, Dusty, Jack, Nank or (less so) Pickett would throw our team out of kilter for a long period which we would struggle to recover from. Having strong depth is essential but we really don't have like-for-like replacements with any of those listed atm.
Development
Leading on directly from my point above, developing younger players to take over from our rapidly aging list has never been more crucial. List management is such an unpredictable and imprecise skill that it's so hard to guarantee depth with any level of absolute assurance. Luckily for us, we have one of the best List Management teams in the business. Blair Hartley is a genius. Where our problem is, is using the draft and trading to find replacements for stars. It seems unlikely.
Regardless, we need to continue to build a strong development program. Our VFL program needs to mimic our AFL game plan. Our players needs to refine their skills and be matched up with more experienced operators. Players such as Clarke, Ryan and Sonsie should get games early. Father Time waits for no man and without experience and development for our younger players, when he arrives for our premiership stars, we'll have no one there to step up for them.
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FOX FOOTY EXPERT PREDICTIONS: TOP 8 CHANGES FOR 2023 AFL SEASON
Dermott Brereton: Carlton and Port Adelaide IN, Brisbane and Western Bulldogs OUT
Nathan Buckley: No change
Nick Dal Santo: Carlton IN, Collingwood OUT
Ben Dixon: Carlton IN, Richmond OUT
Brad Johnson: Carlton IN, Collingwood OUT
David King: Carlton IN, Fremantle OUT
Jordan Lewis: Carlton and Essendon IN, Western Bulldogs and Collingwood OUT
Alastair Lynch: Carlton IN, Fremantle OUT
Garry Lyon: Carlton IN, Fremantle OUT
Leigh Montagna: Carlton IN, Collingwood OUT
Cameron Mooney: St Kilda IN, Western Bulldogs OUT
Matthew Pavlich: Carlton IN, Collingwood OUT
Mark Ricciuto: Port Adelaide IN, Fremantle OUT
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-predictions-news-2023-top-eight-changes-fox-footy-experts-predict-carlton-to-play-finals-collingwood-to-miss/news-story/de4e8ba0ec1ffb68b205139631191c71
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Crystal Ball: Our predictions for the 2023 AFL season are in
This is where each of the AFL website's "journos" think we will finish on the ladder.
Damian Barrett 9th
Gemma Bastiani 8th
Riley Beveridge 4th
Sarah Black 5th ........... Taranto for the Brownlow.
Nat Edwards 5th
Josh Gabelich 5th
Sarah Olle 4th ........... Lynch for the Coleman
Nathan Schmook 8th
Callum Twomey 3rd ........... Lynch for the Coleman
Michael Whiting 11th
https://www.afl.com.au/news/881017/crystal-ball-our-predictions-for-the-2023-afl-season-are-in
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Lynch was confident there was enough improvement left in Richmond for it to become a challenger again.
"Obviously Taranto and Hopper have come in but we've got a lot of young guys that got exposed to senior footy last year like Judson Clarke, Tyler Sonsie, Sam Banks hasn't played yet," Lynch said.
"So we've got a lot of youth still to come in and really push us up."
The Tigers have bolstered their midfield with ex-Giants Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper and Lynch expected the pair to build chemistry with Richmond's forwards.
"We'll work on that connection," he said.
"They looked good in the practice matches, and I'm sure we'll, as a team, build on that in the coming weeks."
Source: AFL website (https://www.afl.com.au/news/882129/star-good-to-go-in-boost-for-tigers-ahead-of-opener)
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David King and Gerard Whateley have named their top four seeds heading into Round 1 of the 2023 AFL season.
n.b. Whateley only named three teams heading into Round 1:
KING:
1. Melbourne
“It’s Melbourne, you can’t help but love them.”
2. Brisbane
“Brisbane for me, this has to be the year they make the Grand Final.
“It has to be one of the next two years when they win it (the premiership).
3. Richmond
“I’ve got Richmond, but they’re a risk.
“It could be boom or bust, the Tiges.”
4. Collingwood
“I’ve got Collingwood at four, I’m maintaining the faith.”
WHATELEY:
1. Melbourne
“We’re unified on the one seed heading into the year, Melbourne.”
2. Geelong
“I’m going Geelong.”
3. Carlton
“I am going to put Carlton at three on the way to Thursday night.”
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/03/14/king-and-whateleys-top-four-seeds-heading-into-round-1-2023/
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FORMER AFL COACH TIPPING TIGERS FOR MILD DROP-OFF AFTER SCOTT'S COMMENTS
By Seb Mottram
SEN
16 March 2023
Damien Hardwick will hope a new-look midfield can lead Richmond deeper into September.
But that’s not a view held by former Adelaide coach Brenton Sanderson, who can’t see Richmond making the top four.
When asked on SEN’s Whateley whether the Tigers can earn a double chance in the 2023 finals series, Sanderson responded: “I don’t think so.
“Something makes me a bit nervous about Richmond… I think one of the telling quotes was from Chris Scott this week, he mentioned they worked out a way to beat Richmond.
“If Chris Scott says that and I hear that as a coach of another side, that’s the first games I’m looking at last year when the Cats played Richmond.
“If Geelong worked out a way to beat Richmond, show me that, show me what they did.
“If Geelong have worked out a way to beat Richmond, it must mean other coaches have got a blueprint as well to beat Richmond.
“I still think Richmond are a fantastic club, a great team with an excellent coach, but when Chris Scott mentioned they worked out a way to beat them, there must be something out there that tells other clubs there is a strategy to beat them.”
Earlier this week Scott reflected on Richmond’s dominance of the past six years as well as his club’s strong record over the past two years.
“Richmond have been the team of the era really… we were a really good team but we just couldn’t beat them for a period of time,” Scott told Fox Footy’s On The Couch.
“Then it got to 2021 and we found a way to beat Richmond. There’s a way you can’t play them in our view, we found a way and then we beat them a couple of times that year and ticked that box.”
As part of Geelong’s unbeaten streak that stretched from Round 10 to the end of the season, the Cats defeated Richmond in Round 15 in a see-sawing thriller at the MCG. Since the 2020 Grand Final when Hardwick’s side proved a class above, Geelong have beaten Richmond all three times.
But two key ins will factor into expectations on Richmond in 2023. Former Giants duo Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper were recruited to prop up a midfield that previously wasn’t the Tigers' strong suit, but is now among the best in the competition on paper.
Yet Sanderson sees Hardwick’s team dropping off slightly from last year’s 13 wins.
“I think they’re a 10-12 win side, which means they finish somewhere between 6-10… I think they’re in that bracket this year,” he continued.
“Richmond are such a great club, they’re probably going to prove me wrong. I can’t quite put my finger on it… but this has been a side that’s been up for a long time.
“I just think they need a lot of things to go right this season… to be a top four side.”
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/03/16/former-afl-coach-tipping-tigers-for-mild-drop-off-after-scotts-comments/
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AFL 2023 — each team's predicted finish and their key question for the season
By Cody Atkinson and Sean Lawson
ABC
16 March 2023
It's the time of the year where the first leaves of the trees start to turn yellow. When the pads and stumps are packed up, and footy posts rise into the sky.
The smell of liniment and deep heat starts to fill club rooms around the country, and the nation's deep supply of strapping tape starts to take a bit of a hit.
That's right — it's footy time again.
ABC Sport have again crunched the numbers before the upcoming season, and have (foolishly) predicted where your side might finish and their biggest question heading into the year.
Where the cards might fall
The competition is set to be incredibly tight this year, with up to 16 teams shaping to have real finals hopes heading into the year. Geelong and Melbourne look to be the teams to beat, with Carlton and Port Adelaide looking to push into the eight.
Projecting the 2023 season based on 2022
Accounting for underlying team strength (Pythagorean expectations), draw difficulty, and projected onfield list strength
(http://oneeyed-richmond.com/images/other/ABC2023predictionp1.png)
Hawthorn may be weaker than their projection suggests given their off-season movements. GWS, Essendon, St Kilda and North Melbourne have new coaches at the helm and will look to ape Collingwood's rise last year. The Dons will also be aided by what appears to be the softest fixture in the league.
A friendly Bomber draw and a tough Swans road
Strength of fixture compared to even draw for 2022 and 2023
(http://oneeyed-richmond.com/images/other/ABC2023predictionp2.png)
West Coast's horror run with availability looks to turn around next year, while the loss of Josh Dunkley will be felt by the Dogs.
Your team's biggest question
Richmond — predicted 3rd
Will they evolve their playing style?
As more and more teams begin to ape the style of Richmond, the Tigers might just break the other way. The Tigers' focus on territory and generating quick turnovers, sometimes at the expense of clean movement, has taken the league by storm. Around the ground, the Tigers have often eschewed winning clearances at the expense of creating damage from subsequent intercepts.
New Tigers, new approach?
Ratio of stoppage clearances for vs against since 2017
(http://oneeyed-richmond.com/images/other/ABC2023predictionp3.png)
The recruitment of Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper look to strengthen the Richmond midfield group to new levels, and place them as a clearance-winning side. Hardwick's decision could shape the season of a potential contender.
1. Melbourne
2. Geelong
3. Richmond
4. Brisbane
5. Sydney
6. Carlton
7. Port Adelaide
8. Fremantle
---------------------
9. W.Bulldogs
10. St Kilda
11. Collingwood
12. Gold Coast
13. Essendon
14. Hawthorn
15. Adelaide
16. GWS
17. West Coast
18. North Melbourne
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-16/afl-team-predicted-finish-2023/102096574
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Scott's blueprint to beat Richmond
KO Prestia
We would have beaten them if it wasn't for Stewart taking out Prestia last year.
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Please all off sudden he worked it out lol.
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There’s no reason why we can’t win. I think there’s probably 4-5 teams with lists that can win it. It’s more the intangibles. Why was our 2017 team so good ? You can look at pressure stats and what not but i think the things the stick out are how well we were connected and how we bounced back from losses, our energy and excitement was just through the roof.
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10 clubs will push for AFL finals this year. Here’s why each can - and can’t - win the flag
Ben Cotton
Foxsports
March 17th, 2023
RICHMOND
Why they can
After a slow start to last season, the Tigers came with a rush in the second half of the campaign, dropping just three of 11 games after the byes as one of the form teams of the competition. Despite failing to get past Brisbane in the elimination final, it was a reminder of how potent this Tigers outfit can be when its on song to reemerge as flag contenders with an exuberance of youth. Of course, Richmond’s now bolstered the one area of the ground it’s ever been vulnerable – not that it mattered during the club’s golden run – with star midfield recruits Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper to add a scary new dimension to Damien Hardwick’s side.
Why they can’t
It’s easy to get caught up in the hype of the Taranto-Hopper double coup, but had the Tigers not landed the pair, would the footy world have been as bullish on them this year? And if not, how much credence should we put into one off-season – as good as it was. In saying that, even just one of Taranto and Hopper would’ve been huge, so to get both was a genuine home run. But the team’s trajectory had previously been up and down, and they’ve otherwise lost a ton of experience in recent years. Does this team have that same dog hunger from five years ago?
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2023-why-every-contender-can-and-cant-fin-the-premiership-finalists-analysis-odds-strengths-and-weaknesses-latest-news/news-story/def9f418eed15edb219386faca8c4fb7
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Scott's blueprint to beat Richmond
KO Prestia
We would have beaten them if it wasn't for Stewart taking out Prestia last year.
The sniper went off injured early tonight and the Cats lost. So, according to Chris Scott's logic, the rest of the comp now has the blueprint to beating Geelong.
The Cats loss tonight had a lack of hunger and desperation about it. Little defensive work, ultimately beaten up around the ball, and they stopped running late when it mattered. Conceding the last 8 goals of a game and getting run over is a major warning sign for a reigning premier. Different quarter but our bad loss to the Swans early in 2021 was in hindsight a portent to what was to come for us that year. We couldn't go again after 2020 and faded in the second half of games.
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I have alway thought if you can stay with Geelong for half a game you can beat them. Their older players run out of legs and the younger ones are not anything to write home about with one or two exceptions
This opinion grew a bit stronger after tonight. I hope they fall in a heap, just too arrogant these days
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I have alway thought if you can stay with Geelong for half a game you can beat them. Their older players run out of legs and the younger ones are not anything to write home about with one or two exceptions
This opinion grew a bit stronger after tonight. I hope they fall in a heap, just too arrogant these days
Agree
But The Pies we’re very very good I thought
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I have alway thought if you can stay with Geelong for half a game you can beat them. Their older players run out of legs and the younger ones are not anything to write home about with one or two exceptions
This opinion grew a bit stronger after tonight. I hope they fall in a heap, just too arrogant these days
LOL Have to admit it was the first time in my life i found myself barracking for the pies. I think the constant whinging has wore me down.
On Collingwood imo they look a lot like us in 2017 they did last year as well. not the greatest list in some areas but they play aggressive attacking footy and run in waves. They are a good team to watch because of how they play. Big tiger influence with McCrae and Leppitsch there as well.
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Agree that they do look like us in 17.
They are fun to watch.
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Barrett and Lloyd reckon Carlton will finish higher than us by the end of year.
18:50 min mark: https://www.afl.com.au/video/886652/aaa-star-s-move-not-going-to-work-how-blues-coughed-it-up
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I don't know how we beat Melb who are team to beat IMO.
Pies looked good but nobody wins anything in March.
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Dees are making the same mistake they did last yr. Think us in '18.
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I still think we can, but I'll admit there is some doubt.
The game against the pies in 2 weeks will answer a lot of questions for mine. Last season our transition defence was awful, if we're to be a legitimate chance in 23, that needs to tighten up considerably. There were good signs against carlton on Thursday, but Pies are probably the best in the business at quick transition from defensive 50, so we'll learn a lot about where we're at in 2 weeks.
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From Barrett's 'Sliding Doors' column today:
(https://resources.afl.com.au/photo-resources/2020/11/17/8a4c2df0-2497-41a0-85ac-8cab8feed48a/richmond.jpg?width=952)
IF ...
the Tigers were OK in round one ...
THEN ...
I've still got doubts about their credentials in 2023. Even with Taranto and Hopper as acquisitions, I question their midfield quality.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/887054/if-the-eagles-have-won-two-games-since-r19-2021-then
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KING AND WHATELEY’S TOP FOUR SEEDS AFTER ROUND 2, 2023
SEN
27 March 2023
KING
1. Collingwood
2. Sydney
3. Melbourne
4. Richmond
“I have got the Tigers, I’m a believer in the Tigers.
“I don’t know why, I think this clearance game is starting to work and the old firm are still staying strong.”
WHATELEY
1. Collingwood
2. Melbourne
3. Carlton
4. Sydney
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/03/27/king-and-whateleys-top-four-seeds-after-round-2-2023/
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AFL Power Rankings
Max Laughton
Fox Sports
March 29th, 2023
What are the Power Rankings?
This is our attempt to rank every AFL club from best to worst. We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.
1. Collingwood
2. Sydney
3. Melbourne
4. Brisbane
5. RICHMOND (1-0-1, 123.9%)
Last week’s ranking: 7
The Tigers were underwhelming for large patches of the win over Adelaide, but were so good in the other patches it didn’t matter. That’s the positive. But now they have to deal with a blow to their defence, which is already their flaw. It’s not like Nathan Broad is a superstar but losing any part of their back six for the next month of footy is going to hurt. They’ve got a brutal four weeks to come - Collingwood, the Bulldogs, Sydney and Melbourne. So just our three highest-ranked teams and a Bulldogs side that’ll probably be playing for its season... no big deal.
6. Carlton
7. Geelong
8. Port Adelaide
-------------------
9. St Kilda
10. Essendon
11. Fremantle
12. W.Bulldogs
13. Gold Coast
14. GWS
15. Adelaide
16. North Melbourne
17. West Coast
18. Hawthorn
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/epic-prelim-rivals-surge-into-top-spots-as-big-fears-emerge-for-22-finalists-afl-power-rankings/news-story/5051700f6249e194789f7928036304a7
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The real shame in all this Broad saga is Tom Browne is hurt and not available.
Reckon a bit outside the box would be McIntosh to hb, That was a role i always believed he should have been developed in having been very good at it as a junior. Similar size but far worse skills than Broad.
The only problem with that would be he will play plodder Ross on the wing rather than blood Clarke give Sonsie some space or even debut Banks.
Another young option would be Ralphsmith. All those quick skilled running options and yet in the past Hooch has played Ross there.
But wait Hooch is a 3time premiership coach and just never gets things wrong.
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NO!
Too many lazy players not willing to work like they used to.
Can’t tackle like we used to.
Aren’t hungry enough. Too slow.
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We were woeful tonight yet I wouldn't write us off after only 3 rounds. We were missing key players and we are still an evolving side that clearly needs to jell over the remaining 20 H/A rounds. Our defence stood up relatively well considering and against what everyone is now saying are the premiership favourite at virtually full strength.
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I think Pies and Dees stand alone as top 2. Swans have had a easy draw and Lions can't win away from Qld.
I'm still bullish even after a poor showing, and a poor 3rd qtr vs Crows. I don't think we are far off Lions with our flaws. We beat Lions in Vic and they beat us up there. Swans are unknown. We won't get top 2, top 4 is for the taking though. We've given Pies closest game even though it should have been more. I'm still bullish but there is an enormous amount to work on to challenge, but those challenging for top 4 also are miles off (Lions, Cats, Freo, Blues)
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I don’t see the want anymore from our senior players just don’t have what it takes anymore and are not the icing on the cake of a good team.
Our forward entries are a massive issue and our big forward for some reason don’t want to lead into space and just flap their arms for the big mark no one takes.
Nankervis continues to get worse the more he should be dominant ie. EF final 2022 and second half tonight.
Grimes has had a terrible stay to a season since he kept pining hammies and cotchin just can’t go at the same pace as he used to.
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Honestly it looks like Jack and Cotch and hoping to ride a Taranto/Hopper wave to a 4th flag.
They try a bit, but can't gut run anymore, rarely man up in time on etc.
Nankervis is also quite a sucky ruckman. 40 of the worst hitouts you'll ever see tonight.
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NO!
Too many lazy players not willing to work like they used to.
Can’t tackle like we used to.
Aren’t hungry enough. Too slow.
Reckon you have it wrong though those things contribute. For me the major reason!! not enough well rounded players hence the words role players is so much in vogue with tiger supporters.They try they do their best but when with ball any sort of pressure sees them gift it back.
They work but lack the attributes especially with ball in hand.
Tackling interesting imo too many smalls who cannot lock up players in tackles but agree we are just a lousy tackling team and have been for awhile now.
Hunger equals age. Along with to a degree too slow. Lets keep playing the role players we wont win a thing because the role players lack in a big way one way or the other.
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Honestly it looks like Jack and Cotch and hoping to ride a Taranto/Hopper wave to a 4th flag.
They try a bit, but can't gut run anymore, rarely man up in time on etc.
Nankervis is also quite a sucky ruckman. 40 of the worst hitouts you'll ever see tonight.
Nankervis worst game ever was last season Elimination final. Absolutely Terrible. :help
Tonight a close second. :help
Both times he has the luxury of an injured ruckman and should’ve dominated but failed twice against the very same player. :banghead :banghead :help
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Our youngsters aren’t up to the level and because of that fact we haven’t had the lifted output from our aging senior stars.
In contrast, the Pies aging stars have been propelled to their former glory with the influx of young elite runners that are prepared to work hard and tackle for four quarters.
We just don’t have that yet from our next crop and by the time they get to that level our three time premiership superstars have already started their media careers.
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David King and Gerard Whateley have named their top four seeds following Round 3 of the 2023 AFL season.
KING
1. Collingwood
2. Melbourne
3. Richmond
“I’m a believer. You can't all of a sudden become a non-believer. I’ll get there when I get there, not today.”
4. Carlton
WHATELEY
1. Melbourne
2. Collingwood
3. Carlton
4. St Kilda
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/04/03/king-and-whateleys-top-four-seeds-after-round-3-2023/
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St Kilda top 4 lol Whateley come on mate
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POWER RANKINGS! (according to SEN)
A transition week in the power rankings with eight teams staying put... but that could mean mass change next week!
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FsvvvpfaUAEYnvn?format=jpg&name=large)
https://twitter.com/1116sen/status/1642708999832317953
------------------------------
Power Rankings (according to 7).
1. Collingwood
2. Melbourne
3. Carlton
4. St Kilda
5. Sydney
6. Brisbane
7. Richmond
Only Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn have scored less points for than the Tigers, and yet they sit eighth on the ladder with one win and a draw. We’ll know more when they get to the other side of the Bulldogs, Swans and Demons in the next three rounds.
8. Western Bulldogs
9. Geelong
10. Fremantle
https://7news.com.au/sport/afl/afl-power-rankings-collingwood-stand-alone-as-reigning-premiers-cling-on-to-ninth-spot-c-10238080
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Far from challenging, but way to early.
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True contenders, flawed favourites and heavenly rise of 2023’s big surprise: Power Rankings
Max Laughton
Fox Sports
April 5th, 2023
1. Collingwood
2. Melbourne
3. Sydney
4. Carlton
5. RICHMOND (1-1-1, 109.1%)
Last week’s ranking: 5
On the plus side the Tigers have the ultra-rare and very aesthetically pleasing record of one win, one loss and one draw. (Well, not that rare. They were 1-1-1 in 2020, too.) On the negative side they probably won’t be 2-2-2. (Unless...?) Well, the real negative is how discombobulated they looked against the Magpies, even if their defence did hold up relatively well. Again, we have to draw a comparison between Brisbane and Richmond - as we’ve been doing since the pre-season - we simply didn’t expect the forward line to be an issue. But broadly speaking we’re not worried; after all the 14-point loss last Friday night was their biggest since Round 6 last year. They are nothing if not consistently competitive.
6. St Kilda
7. Brisbane
8. Geelong
--------------
9. Port Adelaide
10. W.Bulldogs
11. Essendon
12. Fremantle
13. Gold Coast
14. Adelaide
15. GWS
16. North Melbourne
17. West Coast
18. Hawthorn
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2023-power-rankings-after-round-3-analysis-highlights-every-club-ranked-ladder-predictions-contenders-latest-news/news-story/9f2b5ebe1016fcf6e8120fc9d10201e8
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“IN A BIT OF TROUBLE”: WILL TIGERS STRUGGLE TO PLAY FINALS AFTER SHAKY START TO 2023?
Lachlan Geleit
SEN
9 April 2023
Richmond haven’t got off to the start of the year that they would have planned as they hold a one-win, one-draw and two-loss record after Round 4.
With their latest result a five-point defeat at the hands of the Western Bulldogs on Saturday at the MCG, the Tigers now face the daunting task of turning their season around with both Sydney and Melbourne to come in the next fortnight.
Coming off the loss to the Dogs, Kane Cornes believes the Tigers are in trouble and the Port Adelaide great would be surprised to see them feature in September this season.
“They’re in a bit of trouble as well, Richmond,” Cornes told AFL Nation.
“They came back into it in the second quarter, they kicked seven goals in a row.
“I don’t think the Western Bulldogs or Richmond are that good, to be honest.
“I’d be surprised if either team plays finals when it comes down to it.”
Cornes believes the Tigers will struggle to make the top eight due to their injury issues and an apparent lack of speed in the midfield.
“Richmond their injury history is horrific,” Cornes said.
“Once again, Jack Graham goes off with a hamstring injury so there’s an issue there after resting Jack Riewoldt and Cotchin.
“They just looked slow through the midfield and if it wasn’t for (Dustin) Martin and (Shai) Bolton inside 50 and (Tom) Lynch, they didn’t have much else.
“In the end, the Western Bulldogs despite a 20-minute patch in the second quarter were easily the better team today.”
Speaking on Nine’s Sunday Footy Show, Cornes delved deeper into his concerns with Richmond’s midfield, particularly after the club recruited both Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper during the trade period on long-term deals.
“You’d be concerned,” Cornes told Nine’s Sunday Footy Show.
“(The midfield) was the concern prior to the start of the year and you’ve sold your future for two players who are poor ball users in Hopper and Taranto.
“Their role is to win stoppage and clearances and they were beaten up in that area.
“I think they (Richmond) are just ordinary.”
The Tigers will be desperate to pick up their second win of the season when they face the Swans on Friday night at the Adelaide Oval.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/04/09/in-a-bit-of-trouble-will-tigers-struggle-to-play-finals-after-shaky-start-to/
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I was extremely bullish about season 2023. We have a soft draw if we are being honest
But right now our season is on the brink
Still think we will make the 8 as our draw opens up but that's it. Just making up the numbers
So want to be proven wrong
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I think we are a top 8 side. I mean again our losses are games we think we could have won.
I think wed need something drastic to turn into flag contenders again.
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Hawthorn legend Jason Dunstall noted how costly the brutal setbacks were for Richmond, who’s also without back-up ruckman Ivan Soldo due to his own foot issue.
“Find two more important players in their make-up in terms of their ability to progress in 2023,” Dunstall said of Lynch and Nankervis on Fox Footy’s AFL 360.
“That power forward that directs so much of the traffic inside 50, and Nankervis, let’s not underestimate how good of a leader he’s become. He’s a terrific ruckman, but he’s also become an inspirational leader.
“This sets them back a lot, and they’re not playing the sort of football I thought they might be at this stage of the season.
“I’m now starting to second guess how highly I rated them heading into the season. I’m a little concerned about the way they’re playing.”
Dunstall believes it’ll make it hard to assess exactly where the undermanned Tigers are at after many tipped the club to return to premiership contention heading into the season.
“I’m disappointed they’ve got these injuries. I’d rather see them at full strength so I can judge exactly how they’re going and not have that as a lingering excuse on the side,” he added.
“I’m still unsure about the Tigers.”
It comes ahead of clashes against Sydney and Melbourne in the next fortnight in key tests for Hardwick’s side as it looks to add to its one win in 2023.
“They were grossly undermanned when they fronted up to Collingwood ... through not much fault of their own, they mightn’t get a decent crack at the first half of the season, and they’ll be chasing all the way through,” AFL 360 host Gerard Whateley pointed out.
“They don’t look like a team about to reprise the great deeds of those Richmond teams.”
Source: AFL 360 (https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/teams/richmond-tigers/afl-2023-tim-taranto-and-jacob-hopper-sevenyear-deals-at-richmond-tigers-kane-cornes-criticism-midfield-struggles-loss-to-western-bulldogs-injuries-tom-lynch-toby-nankervis/news-story/783daaaf4d6151e2562fb5928effaf2c).
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POWER RANKINGS!
We have a new leader after 4 rounds! 📈
And a tough loss compounded by worse injury news for Richmond.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FtVjYFyaMAEU4iW?format=jpg&name=large)
https://twitter.com/1116sen/status/1645366511153078277
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"I'm a little bit concerned in terms of identifying who they are. I think they're going to get better as the year goes on...going to a Richmond game, you've known for a long time what you're going to get and now it's chopped and changed."
- Daniel Hoyne on Richmond
https://twitter.com/SENSportsday/status/1645711828062982144
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Should the Tigers be worried after just one win and a draw from the first month of the season and injuries piling up?
Watch Access All Areas: https://www.afl.com.au/video/901186/aaa-concern-for-mccartin-the-blueprint-to-beat-the-pies-damning-giants-vision
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FtZvOkXakAAngcO?format=jpg&name=900x900)
https://twitter.com/AFL/status/1645626215024443394
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Can we challenge again in 2023.
4 games in We are asking can we make the 8.
Truth is our older blokes are well older and we dont have enough games into what good kids we have.We actually have too many kids and we have no idea where they are at in regards to weather they are good enough for the level.
Despite all the injuries we started the season with few and at no stage have we looked like a genuine contender.Thats a concern.
Even if we get everyone back and we start to play some real good footy, atm we are looking at just making the 8 at best.
Unless we play the kids and 1 give em an opportunity and 2 hope they take good steps fwd THE SEASON IMO WILL BE WASTED.
Aim for finals but the aim should be to do it with as many kids as possible.
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This week on the Real Footy podcast, Michael Gleeson, Jake Niall and special guest Mathew Stokes discuss whether it’s too soon to write off the Tigers, as the injuries pile up and with only one win so far this season. They haven’t sold the farm to land Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper, but they have sold off a lot of acreage. But are there positive signs in their approach to using their older players, such as Trent Cotchin being named the sub?
LISTEN from 20:55 - 25:05 min mark: https://omny.fm/shows/real-footy/a-horrible-victory
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Power Rankings after Round 4
Max Laughton
Fox Sports
April 12th, 2023
1. Melbourne
2. Collingwood
3. St Kilda
4. Carlton
5. Sydney
6. Brisbane
7. Geelong
8. RICHMOND (1-2-1, 104.5%)
Last week’s ranking: 5
The Tigers just feel kind of awkward right now. They don’t have a clear and obvious game plan, as they did during their recent dynasty. The narrative around them is that the midfield is struggling but that’s wrong - they’ve won the clearances in three of their four games; it’s more about the kicking, which let them down badly in three of the four quarters against the Bulldogs. (Unsurprisingly in the one term they kicked well, they were dominant.) And from a list perspective, they’re trying to awkwardly straddle the line between two worlds - building for the future and remaining competitive with what’s left of their premiership core. Almost all of their key players are either 25 and under, or 29 and older - they’re a doughnut, with a hole in the middle where the prime-aged stars should be. With Tom Lynch and Toby Nankervis sidelined for at least a month each, a top-four finish suddenly seems quite unlikely, but we’re not jumping off them as a finals contender yet. After all we’ve seen them dig out of an early season hole before.
9. Adelaide
10. Port Adelaide
11. Western Bulldogs
12. Essendon
13. Fremantle
14. Gold Coast
15. GWS
16. North Melbourne
17. West Coast
18. Hawthorn
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2023-power-rankings-after-round-4-analysis-highlights-every-club-ranked-ladder-predictions-contenders-latest-news/news-story/1758e1541fee73de227ebb1f5d6fbea2
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I have been a RFC supporter since 1965 and a member ever since I could afford it. I cant remember a time when I was more excited about an upcoming season.
Well that didn't last long.
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I’m getting excited about our draft picks, oh wait a minute
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AFL power rankings:
Harrison Reid
7news
17 April 2023
We rank every AFL club from 1 to 18 based on current form, and there has been some big movers after Round 5.
1. Collingwood
2. Essendon
3. St Kilda
4. Melbourne
5. Carlton
6. Adelaide
7. Essendon
8. Sydney
9. Port Adelaide
10. Geelong
11. Western Bulldogs
12. Richmond
It’s becoming more and more clear that the Tigers aren’t capable of building upon their bounce back into the finals last year, and that Hopper and Taranto can’t paper over the aging cracks. Until Friday night, it felt like there was more in Richmond that we were yet to have seen, but the 44-point loss to Sydney felt significant. You can’t see the wheels falling off this proud Tigers unit, but September looks a stretch from here.
13. GWS
14. Fremantle
15. North Melbourne
16. Gold Coast
17. Hawthorn
18. West Coast
https://7news.com.au/sport/afl/afl-power-rankings-all-bar-three-teams-change-places-in-massive-round-of-movement-c-10367379
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2023 just isn’t Richmond’s year
Nathan Buckley
SEN
17 April 2023
“I think the supporters and everyone else need to readjust our expectations of them.
“I think they’ve been coached exceptionally well. I think they’ve been true to themselves, the messaging would be really consistent about the way they want them to play.
“But in the last eight quarters, they’ve kicked 15 goals in two of those quarters, and only eight goals in the other six.
“There’s a big difference between their capacity to score when they execute their kicking or their handball or their simple basics in the game, and when they don’t.
“They’ve just got kids playing that aren’t ready to play in winning teams. That’s not to say they’re not having a go, but there’s just too many of them. (Noah) Cumberland, (Tylar) Young, Maurice Rioli, (Tyler) Sonsie, (Rhyan) Mansell, (Samson) Ryan, (Brad) Miller, (Hugo) Ralphsmith, (Judson) Clarke all played in the side on the weekend. All have got talent and things they can offer the team but there’s just too many at once.
“I don’t think it’s an excuse at all, but I think that the way that Richmond went into this season, their top half looked amazing, they recruited (Tim) Taranto and (Jacob) Hopper, they brought in some players, tried to address a need through the midfield and there’s no doubt they have done that.
“But they’ve just lost too many of their players that they’ve relied on and some of their experienced players have dropped off before they thought they would.
“The expectations need to shift. Damien Hardwick isn’t coaching for success this year, his language has changed slightly. The leaders in the side need to make that adjustment as well because I saw an element of frustration in the way they went about it on the weekend.
“If they continue not to deal with or understand the reality of the situation that they’re in, then that frustration will continue and it won’t be great for the development of the young players.”
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/04/16/the-buck-stops-here-2023-isnt-richmonds-year-crows-are-the-real-deal-and/
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(http://oneeyed-richmond.com/images/other/PremiershipWindowR52023.png)
https://twitter.com/FOXFOOTY/status/1647882375001694208
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Power Rankings after Round 5
Max Laughton
Fox Sports
April 18th, 2023
1. Collingwood
2. Melbourne
3. Sydney
4. Brisbane
5. St Kilda
6. Geelong
7. Adelaide
8. Port Adelaide
9. Carlton
10. Essendon
11. RICHMOND (1-3-1, 92.4%)
Last week’s ranking: 8
Let’s make one thing clear - the Tigers don’t start seasons well. In the last seven seasons they’ve opened the year 5-4 (2017), 7-2 (2018, so the one time they didn’t win a flag they were supposed to win), 7-6 (2019), 4-3-1 (2020), 5-5 (2021) and 2-4 (2022). There’s usually a pattern - they get upset a couple of times, some bad injuries strike, but then they work out what’s going wrong and the players come back and they surge into September. Last year went against the pattern because they didn’t win a final, and most people are giving up on them doing it this year too. We’re not going that far. We’d point out the tough opening five weeks they’ve had, and how much better their one win (over Adelaide in Adelaide) looks right now. Soon enough the fixture will open up and the Tigers will get their chances to recover. But we will say that the top four berth we thought they’d contend for is looking very far away.
12. Western Bulldogs
13. Fremantle
14. Gold Coast
15. GWS
16. North Melbourne
17. West Coast
18. Hawthorn
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2023-power-rankings-after-round-5-analysis-highlights-every-club-ranked-ladder-predictions-contenders-latest-news/news-story/4f9d285140f1064353234930b2d313a4
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(http://oneeyed-richmond.com/images/other/PremiershipWindowR52023.png)
https://twitter.com/FOXFOOTY/status/1647882375001694208
AFL premiership window revealed: Contender’s grim title reality as shock bolter emerges
Catherine Healey
Fox Sports
April 18th, 2023
Sydney and Essendon are sitting in the premiership window box seat after five rounds, with a trio of Melbourne-based clubs not far behind.
Statistics show of the last 17 premiers, 15 of those have sat in the top six for both offence and defence – and that is where both the Swans and Bombers currently rank.
Just outside of that top six loom Melbourne, Collingwood and St Kilda while there’s big concerns for the Western Bulldogs who are currently ranked 17th in the premiership window.
Alarmingly, no premier in the past 17 years has come from below the defensive top six in worrying signs for Adelaide, Geelong and Brisbane who have shown firepower up forward.
Only the Western Bulldogs (2016) and Richmond (2017) have won flags without sitting in the top six offensive stats – but they still ranked top six defensively.
As it stands, if that defensive premiers trend were to continue, there’s seven teams in the race – Sydney, Essendon, Collingwood, St Kilda, Carlton and Richmond/Fremantle who are tied for points allowed.
WHO FLIPPED THE SCRIPT
Statistics show Richmond have completely turned the tide on their playing profile in 2023.
“This year Richmond has flipped their profile. Last year they outscored everyone, they got scored against,” Brown said.
“This year, they’ve been harder to score against but they can’t score themselves.”
The Tigers are clinging to a decent spot in the premiership window, as they rank equal with Fremantle for points allowed.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/shock-bolter-as-afl-premiership-window-revealed-but-its-a-long-way-back-for-spent-biccies-side/news-story/a26fd3a5cbf3e493f245f7d866be11fb
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RUSSELL: RICHMOND CAN STILL WIN THE 2023 FLAG
Seb Mottram
SEN
18 April 2023
Dwayne Russell says both Richmond and Geelong can still win the 2023 flag, refusing to buy into the negativity surrounding the two sides.
Both teams have suffered slow starts to the 2023 season and currently sit outside this year’s top eight. Momentum surrounding the Cats was at a big low after their Round 3 loss to Gold Coast, while Richmond finds itself in a similar position after a loss to Sydney on the weekend just gone.
But Russell still sees the potential for both clubs to play finals. And if they make the eight, Russell wouldn’t put a line through them for the flag.
He also mounted a similar case with Brisbane, who have rebounded over the past fortnight after a difficult Round 3 loss to the Western Bulldogs.
“Two weeks ago there were people saying Brisbane can’t win the flag with (Joe) Daniher and (Eric) Hipwood. Well guess what, they can win the flag and they can win it because Hipwood and Daniher can play, and that’s what I said at the time,” he explained on SEN’s Dwayne’s World.
“Too many people were running around a few weeks ago telling us the sky was falling in on Geelong, I wasn’t buying that either.
“They can make the finals, and to me, if you can make the finals you can win the flag, especially when you’ve got an experienced lineup like Geelong’s got. I think Geelong is the kind of team that could, is they scraped into 7th or 8th, win it from there.
“The latest one seems to be Richmond, this week it’s write Richmond off week.
“Is that assessment not reality or is it correct? I think the reality is Richmond can get their game going. Yeah, they’re a bit undisciplined at the moment, yeah they’re not playing their best footy at the moment, yeah they’ve got a few guys who are off at the moment, yeah they’ve got some injuries at the moment, but to me, I don’t think it’s over for Richmond.”
Instead, Russell could write off just four clubs from playing finals this year.
“Only four teams, in my opinion, can’t play finals after five rounds,” he stated.
“Only Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Gold Coast and West Coast.
“In my opinion, there are still 14 teams alive for the finals.”
The Suns, Eagles and Hawks currently occupy the last three spots on the ladder with a trio of combined wins, while North Melbourne is slightly higher in 13th with two.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/04/18/the-four-teams-that-can-be-ruled-out-of-the-finals-race-after-round-5/
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Six AFL clubs who can’t play finals... and the bottom four side that can: Power Rankings
Max Laughton
Fox Sports
April 27th, 2023
Welcome back to the Power Rankings.
After six rounds we’re ready to rule six teams out of the finals race - but we still believe in one that’s stuck in the bottom four.
1. Collingwood
2. Melbourne
3. St Kilda
4. Geelong
5. Brisbane
6. Sydney
7. Adelaide
8. Port Adelaide
9. Essendon
10. W. Bulldogs
11. Carlton
12. RICHMOND (1-4-1, 90.3%)
Last week’s ranking: 11
We might be the last ones in the ‘Richmond is still good!’ room so we’ll turn off the lights if needed, but the Tigers feel like this year’s prime example of the ladder lying. Would anyone really say the bottom four teams right now - North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast and Hawthorn - are the worst four teams? One of those things is not like the other, and it’s Damien Hardwick’s men. They kicked themselves out of holding off Melbourne on Monday night; on expected score they actually should’ve won the game, after a strong performance in contested footy. We’re not trying to say the Tigers are secret flag contender or anything crazy like that - the losses all count, and they’re going to have to win 11 or 12 of their last 17 games to play finals. That’s not easy especially with the injuries they’ve got. But they’re losing to good teams, so if they can just start beating the teams they really should be beating - Gold Coast next, West Coast after that - they should be back in the mid-table mix where they belong.
13. Fremantle
14. Gold Coast
15. GWS
16. North Melbourne
17. Hawthorn
18. West Coast
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2023-power-rankings-after-round-6-analysis-highlights-every-club-ranked-ladder-predictions-contenders-latest-news/news-story/d896001ec1cef62d00c711c8a6367271
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Tigers’ burning question: Does the long-term start to take precedence now?
It looks like a delicate balance for coach Damien Hardwick. The glimpses we’ve seen from Richmond this season – the eight-goal second quarter against the Bulldogs, the seven-goal third quarter against Sydney and the first half against Melbourne – have been brilliant, but they haven’t been able to maintain that intensity for a full four quarters. As Damien Hardwick pointed out, the Tigers “have been in every game” they’ve played, but the reality is they’ve won just one game from six rounds – and finals now seems like a tough ask. Jason Dunstall told AFL 360: “We’re going to see some great performance from them, but it’s still a renovation process.” Co-host Gerard Whateley said the Tigers had now “reached a point where we accept they’re not about to reprise their glory days”, adding on AFL 360: “It’s only six rounds in, but the early polls say they’re not challenging for a flag, so what are you doing?”
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2023-the-blowtorch-round-7-preview-every-clubs-burning-question-fox-footy-commentators-tv-broadcast-guide-analysis-fixture/news-story/5f1941fd649cbfd2d9d82378db1ed1a5
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2023 just isn’t Richmond’s year
Nathan Buckley
SEN
17 April 2023
“I think the supporters and everyone else need to readjust our expectations of them.
“I think they’ve been coached exceptionally well. I think they’ve been true to themselves, the messaging would be really consistent about the way they want them to play.
“But in the last eight quarters, they’ve kicked 15 goals in two of those quarters, and only eight goals in the other six.
“There’s a big difference between their capacity to score when they execute their kicking or their handball or their simple basics in the game, and when they don’t.
“They’ve just got kids playing that aren’t ready to play in winning teams. That’s not to say they’re not having a go, but there’s just too many of them. (Noah) Cumberland, (Tylar) Young, Maurice Rioli, (Tyler) Sonsie, (Rhyan) Mansell, (Samson) Ryan, (Brad) Miller, (Hugo) Ralphsmith, (Judson) Clarke all played in the side on the weekend. All have got talent and things they can offer the team but there’s just too many at once.
“I don’t think it’s an excuse at all, but I think that the way that Richmond went into this season, their top half looked amazing, they recruited (Tim) Taranto and (Jacob) Hopper, they brought in some players, tried to address a need through the midfield and there’s no doubt they have done that.
“But they’ve just lost too many of their players that they’ve relied on and some of their experienced players have dropped off before they thought they would.
“The expectations need to shift. Damien Hardwick isn’t coaching for success this year, his language has changed slightly. The leaders in the side need to make that adjustment as well because I saw an element of frustration in the way they went about it on the weekend.
“If they continue not to deal with or understand the reality of the situation that they’re in, then that frustration will continue and it won’t be great for the development of the young players.”
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/04/16/the-buck-stops-here-2023-isnt-richmonds-year-crows-are-the-real-deal-and/
Gunna disagree.
Young is 24 and you bring in mature players only if they can offer something straight away. Well he has filled a hole but he clearly is not an answer imo.
Mansell is 22 yo in yr 3 and has been moved from his primary role as a defender to the graveyard small pressure fwd role.
Miller is 23 and in in year 6 ffs,
They are hardly kids and should be established if good enough.
Ralphsmith well imo he won't make it hope im wrong.
MRJ similar to Hugo just so deficient in basics and the roles they perform.
Any way i digress the point is not all are kids or juniors. The truth is the after the vets there is not a lot of quality to speak of.
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2023 just isn’t Richmond’s year
Nathan Buckley
SEN
17 April 2023
“I think the supporters and everyone else need to readjust our expectations of them.
“I think they’ve been coached exceptionally well. I think they’ve been true to themselves, the messaging would be really consistent about the way they want them to play.
“But in the last eight quarters, they’ve kicked 15 goals in two of those quarters, and only eight goals in the other six.
“There’s a big difference between their capacity to score when they execute their kicking or their handball or their simple basics in the game, and when they don’t.
“They’ve just got kids playing that aren’t ready to play in winning teams. That’s not to say they’re not having a go, but there’s just too many of them. (Noah) Cumberland, (Tylar) Young, Maurice Rioli, (Tyler) Sonsie, (Rhyan) Mansell, (Samson) Ryan, (Brad) Miller, (Hugo) Ralphsmith, (Judson) Clarke all played in the side on the weekend. All have got talent and things they can offer the team but there’s just too many at once.
“I don’t think it’s an excuse at all, but I think that the way that Richmond went into this season, their top half looked amazing, they recruited (Tim) Taranto and (Jacob) Hopper, they brought in some players, tried to address a need through the midfield and there’s no doubt they have done that.
“But they’ve just lost too many of their players that they’ve relied on and some of their experienced players have dropped off before they thought they would.
“The expectations need to shift. Damien Hardwick isn’t coaching for success this year, his language has changed slightly. The leaders in the side need to make that adjustment as well because I saw an element of frustration in the way they went about it on the weekend.
“If they continue not to deal with or understand the reality of the situation that they’re in, then that frustration will continue and it won’t be great for the development of the young players.”
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/04/16/the-buck-stops-here-2023-isnt-richmonds-year-crows-are-the-real-deal-and/
Gunna disagree.
Young is 24 and you bring in mature players only if they can offer something straight away. Well he has filled a hole but he clearly is not an answer imo.
Mansell is 22 yo in yr 3 and has been moved from his primary role as a defender to the graveyard small pressure fwd role.
Miller is 23 and in in year 6 ffs,
They are hardly kids and should be established if good enough.
Ralphsmith well imo he won't make it hope im wrong.
MRJ similar to Hugo just so deficient in basics and the roles they perform.
Any way i digress the point is not all are kids or juniors. The truth is the after the vets there is not a lot of quality to speak of.
Harsh on Young your going on one bad quarter and when Dimma screwed the team structure even admitted it 24 or not still good age plenty of upside in him way to early.The others I agree on.
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2023 just isn’t Richmond’s year
Nathan Buckley
SEN
17 April 2023
“I think the supporters and everyone else need to readjust our expectations of them.
“I think they’ve been coached exceptionally well. I think they’ve been true to themselves, the messaging would be really consistent about the way they want them to play.
“But in the last eight quarters, they’ve kicked 15 goals in two of those quarters, and only eight goals in the other six.
“There’s a big difference between their capacity to score when they execute their kicking or their handball or their simple basics in the game, and when they don’t.
“They’ve just got kids playing that aren’t ready to play in winning teams. That’s not to say they’re not having a go, but there’s just too many of them. (Noah) Cumberland, (Tylar) Young, Maurice Rioli, (Tyler) Sonsie, (Rhyan) Mansell, (Samson) Ryan, (Brad) Miller, (Hugo) Ralphsmith, (Judson) Clarke all played in the side on the weekend. All have got talent and things they can offer the team but there’s just too many at once.
“I don’t think it’s an excuse at all, but I think that the way that Richmond went into this season, their top half looked amazing, they recruited (Tim) Taranto and (Jacob) Hopper, they brought in some players, tried to address a need through the midfield and there’s no doubt they have done that.
“But they’ve just lost too many of their players that they’ve relied on and some of their experienced players have dropped off before they thought they would.
“The expectations need to shift. Damien Hardwick isn’t coaching for success this year, his language has changed slightly. The leaders in the side need to make that adjustment as well because I saw an element of frustration in the way they went about it on the weekend.
“If they continue not to deal with or understand the reality of the situation that they’re in, then that frustration will continue and it won’t be great for the development of the young players.”
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/04/16/the-buck-stops-here-2023-isnt-richmonds-year-crows-are-the-real-deal-and/
Gunna disagree.
Young is 24 and you bring in mature players only if they can offer something straight away. Well he has filled a hole but he clearly is not an answer imo.
Mansell is 22 yo in yr 3 and has been moved from his primary role as a defender to the graveyard small pressure fwd role.
Miller is 23 and in in year 6 ffs,
They are hardly kids and should be established if good enough.
Ralphsmith well imo he won't make it hope im wrong.
MRJ similar to Hugo just so deficient in basics and the roles they perform.
Any way i digress the point is not all are kids or juniors. The truth is the after the vets there is not a lot of quality to speak of.
Gotta look at games played to see how inexperienced they are. Mega harsh on Young, after playing 5 games in his AFL career he's got a 14.3% 1v1 loss record, 7th best in the comp & he's #1 for spoils at 9.6 per game in the comp. I'm not sure what u are expecting of him...
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@MatthewLloyd18 and @barrettdamian have completed their rounds one to six stocktake... have they got it right?
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FutMMl_aQAEWjRg?format=jpg&name=900x900)
https://twitter.com/AFL/status/1651511513088413701
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Nathan Buckley isn't quite ready to give up on Richmond just yet.
Watch here: https://twitter.com/1116sen/status/1651364281718394884
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2023 just isn’t Richmond’s year
Nathan Buckley
SEN
17 April 2023
“I think the supporters and everyone else need to readjust our expectations of them.
“I think they’ve been coached exceptionally well. I think they’ve been true to themselves, the messaging would be really consistent about the way they want them to play.
“But in the last eight quarters, they’ve kicked 15 goals in two of those quarters, and only eight goals in the other six.
“There’s a big difference between their capacity to score when they execute their kicking or their handball or their simple basics in the game, and when they don’t.
“They’ve just got kids playing that aren’t ready to play in winning teams. That’s not to say they’re not having a go, but there’s just too many of them. (Noah) Cumberland, (Tylar) Young, Maurice Rioli, (Tyler) Sonsie, (Rhyan) Mansell, (Samson) Ryan, (Brad) Miller, (Hugo) Ralphsmith, (Judson) Clarke all played in the side on the weekend. All have got talent and things they can offer the team but there’s just too many at once.
“I don’t think it’s an excuse at all, but I think that the way that Richmond went into this season, their top half looked amazing, they recruited (Tim) Taranto and (Jacob) Hopper, they brought in some players, tried to address a need through the midfield and there’s no doubt they have done that.
“But they’ve just lost too many of their players that they’ve relied on and some of their experienced players have dropped off before they thought they would.
“The expectations need to shift. Damien Hardwick isn’t coaching for success this year, his language has changed slightly. The leaders in the side need to make that adjustment as well because I saw an element of frustration in the way they went about it on the weekend.
“If they continue not to deal with or understand the reality of the situation that they’re in, then that frustration will continue and it won’t be great for the development of the young players.”
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/04/16/the-buck-stops-here-2023-isnt-richmonds-year-crows-are-the-real-deal-and/
Gunna disagree.
Young is 24 and you bring in mature players only if they can offer something straight away. Well he has filled a hole but he clearly is not an answer imo.
Mansell is 22 yo in yr 3 and has been moved from his primary role as a defender to the graveyard small pressure fwd role.
Miller is 23 and in in year 6 ffs,
They are hardly kids and should be established if good enough.
Ralphsmith well imo he won't make it hope im wrong.
MRJ similar to Hugo just so deficient in basics and the roles they perform.
Any way i digress the point is not all are kids or juniors. The truth is the after the vets there is not a lot of quality to speak of.
Gotta look at games played to see how inexperienced they are. Mega harsh on Young, after playing 5 games in his AFL career he's got a 14.3% 1v1 loss record, 7th best in the comp & he's #1 for spoils at 9.6 per game in the comp. I'm not sure what u are expecting of him...
Just cant agree we only play kids if they are outstanding or we have injuries. There is only plan A, stick with the oldies because we have had success with them there is no succession planning.
Melbourne had 6 juniors in their team that is kids 21 or under we had 3. Three of the 6 kids they played had played just 12 games our three played 52 games between them.
their average age was 25yr/202 days ours was 26yr/129days.
Take it further we played 8 players aged under 24. Melbourne played 10 players under 24.
This is where experience comes into it Melbourne from that team managed to get 5 of those under 24's to 50 plus games with another who has 30.For us only Balta of that group has got to 50 plus games with 68 and three have recently ticked over 20 games.
It backs up what i have been saying. We only play kids when injuries hit and we are not succession planning.There is little perseverence with kids and you have to ask why.
They fielded a team with 2438 games and we fielded a team with 2611 games.
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Just a last one. On the succession planning theme.This is not just me going on because we are losing ive been going on about it for years.
Why are no one asking what the hell have we been doing in this.
For me it starts with recruiting or more to the point list management.It also gets back to the point of Hardwick eking every last drop out of experienced players to the detriment of kids.
The situation now reminds me of where Mathews left Brisbane at the end of 2004.
We just have not looked after list deficiencies list needs or played kids in their right roles or prioritised them over borderline seniors.
No one asking the hard questions how can we become so deficient in so many key areas. The answers are simple but few want to see.
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Just a last one. On the succession planning theme.This is not just me going on because we are losing ive been going on about it for years.
Why are no one asking what the hell have we been doing in this.
For me it starts with recruiting or more to the point list management.It also gets back to the point of Hardwick eking every last drop out of experienced players to the detriment of kids.
The situation now reminds me of where Mathews left Brisbane at the end of 2004.
We just have not looked after list deficiencies list needs or played kids in their right roles or prioritised them over borderline seniors.
No one asking the hard questions how can we become so deficient in so many key areas. The answers are simple but few want to see.
Geez why aren’t you running the AFL. :lol
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Just a last one. On the succession planning theme.This is not just me going on because we are losing ive been going on about it for years.
Why are no one asking what the hell have we been doing in this.
For me it starts with recruiting or more to the point list management.It also gets back to the point of Hardwick eking every last drop out of experienced players to the detriment of kids.
The situation now reminds me of where Mathews left Brisbane at the end of 2004.
We just have not looked after list deficiencies list needs or played kids in their right roles or prioritised them over borderline seniors.
No one asking the hard questions how can we become so deficient in so many key areas. The answers are simple but few want to see.
Geez why aren’t you running the AFL. :lol
Yeah yeah. The thing is im not trying to run anything im just pointing out what should smack everyone in the face but does,t seem to.
2023 just isn’t Richmond’s year
Nathan Buckley
SEN
17 April 2023
“I think the supporters and everyone else need to readjust our expectations of them.
“I think they’ve been coached exceptionally well. I think they’ve been true to themselves, the messaging would be really consistent about the way they want them to play.
“But in the last eight quarters, they’ve kicked 15 goals in two of those quarters, and only eight goals in the other six.
“There’s a big difference between their capacity to score when they execute their kicking or their handball or their simple basics in the game, and when they don’t.
“They’ve just got kids playing that aren’t ready to play in winning teams. That’s not to say they’re not having a go, but there’s just too many of them. (Noah) Cumberland, (Tylar) Young, Maurice Rioli, (Tyler) Sonsie, (Rhyan) Mansell, (Samson) Ryan, (Brad) Miller, (Hugo) Ralphsmith, (Judson) Clarke all played in the side on the weekend. All have got talent and things they can offer the team but there’s just too many at once.
“I don’t think it’s an excuse at all, but I think that the way that Richmond went into this season, their top half looked amazing, they recruited (Tim) Taranto and (Jacob) Hopper, they brought in some players, tried to address a need through the midfield and there’s no doubt they have done that.
“But they’ve just lost too many of their players that they’ve relied on and some of their experienced players have dropped off before they thought they would.
“The expectations need to shift. Damien Hardwick isn’t coaching for success this year, his language has changed slightly. The leaders in the side need to make that adjustment as well because I saw an element of frustration in the way they went about it on the weekend.
“If they continue not to deal with or understand the reality of the situation that they’re in, then that frustration will continue and it won’t be great for the development of the young players.”
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/04/16/the-buck-stops-here-2023-isnt-richmonds-year-crows-are-the-real-deal-and/
Gunna disagree.
Young is 24 and you bring in mature players only if they can offer something straight away. Well he has filled a hole but he clearly is not an answer imo.
Mansell is 22 yo in yr 3 and has been moved from his primary role as a defender to the graveyard small pressure fwd role.
Miller is 23 and in in year 6 ffs,
They are hardly kids and should be established if good enough.
Ralphsmith well imo he won't make it hope im wrong.
MRJ similar to Hugo just so deficient in basics and the roles they perform.
Any way i digress the point is not all are kids or juniors. The truth is the after the vets there is not a lot of quality to speak of.
Gotta look at games played to see how inexperienced they are. Mega harsh on Young, after playing 5 games in his AFL career he's got a 14.3% 1v1 loss record, 7th best in the comp & he's #1 for spoils at 9.6 per game in the comp. I'm not sure what u are expecting of him...
Hmm harsh on Young i don't think so. Bottom line is clubs take vfl players and i bet my bottom dollar unlike supporters they dont think they have much more than at best a role player who can play straight away if need be.
They trade or use early fraft picks for what they think are quality players.
Young is a battler. Yep he can fill in if need be when injuries hit but what you see now is what you will get.
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From Robbo's 'The Tackle' column:
DISLIKES
1. Bye, bye Tigers
And that, ladies and gentlemen, means Richmond won’t play finals this year. Mathematically it’s possible, but the Tigers are in 16th position with one win and a draw from seven games. They have to win at least 12 from the next 15 games to play finals and they haven’t got the team, or the form, or the hunger to trouble the scorers. Sunday’s loss was the season killer. You know what they were? They were boring and unthreatening, which is not the Richmond of the past six years. The first half was a snore-fest, so much so you’d think it was a different sport watching Richmond and Gold Coast play at Marvel Stadium after watching Geelong and Essendon kick monster scores at the MCG. The Suns kicked 4.2 from 31 entries in the first half and Richmond 2.9 from 20 entries. By the end, it was 11.6 to 6.12, with both teams having 53 entries. The Tigers have fallen apart. The top-ups have played their role, especially Tim Taranto, but the fact is Richmond doesn’t have the depth to threaten, they have given up draft picks and we’ve seen the best of the veterans. They are a below average team without Lynch, Nankervis, Tarrant and Gibcus, but pretty sure their return can’t rescue the season.
https://www.codesports.com.au/afl/the-tackle-mark-robinson-names-his-likes-and-dislikes-after-round-7/news-story/378f916cce9ce29b6bc248dd0471b7c1
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Sadly Robbo is correct on this one...
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It would be nice if the following players were still with us:
Butler
Higgins
Chol
Ellis
Markov
Not world beaters but good role players
I'm sure I'm missing others.
I'm actually missing George also right now.
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It would be nice if the following players were still with us:
Butler
Higgins
Chol
Ellis
Markov
Not world beaters but good role players
I'm sure I'm missing others.
I'm actually missing George also right now.
Guarantee George would be chasing and trying harder than most of this team
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It would be nice if the following players were still with us:
Butler
Higgins
Chol
Ellis
Markov
Not world beaters but good role players
I'm sure I'm missing others.
I'm actually missing George also right now.
Guarantee George would be chasing and trying harder than most of this team
100%
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It would be nice if the following players were still with us:
Butler
Higgins
Chol
Ellis
Markov
Not world beaters but good role players
I'm sure I'm missing others.
I'm actually missing George also right now.
At the time the decision on all these guys was correct so it’s easy to look back now and say you’d want them back.
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13. RICHMOND (1-5-1, 87.3%)
Last week’s ranking: 12
We declared our continued belief in Richmond last week but it was shaken heavily by that awful Gold Coast loss - awful both because it was a game they simply had to win, and because of how horrid it was to watch. Their forward line is just a mess and while we agree with Damien Hardwick’s general point from his press conference, that their best is good enough but things just keep going wrong, the numbers are just starting to stack up against his side. With one and a half wins on the board, and 16 games left in the season, the Tigers need to go 11-5 from here at worst to play finals (because you’ll almost certainly need 12, if not 13 wins to make the eight). So they can afford five losses. And here are some of the games they have left - Geelong (MCG), Essendon (MCG), St Kilda (Marvel and MCG), Brisbane (Gabba), Melbourne (MCG), Bulldogs (Marvel), Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval). They have to win at least four of those. Good luck.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FvGI1l-aIAAKDpy?format=jpg&name=large)
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2023-power-rankings-after-round-7-analysis-highlights-every-club-ranked-ladder-predictions-contenders-latest-news/news-story/a40c3d4b3d926220480bd829272868a4
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Power Ranking after Round 8:
12. RICHMOND (2-5-1, 95.7%)
Last week’s ranking: 13
That first half won’t help the Name-A-Game sales at all but the second half saw some classic Richmond ball movement by hand, the likes of which we haven’t seen since... maybe the second quarter against the Bulldogs? The Tigers are still in a real hole when it comes to recovering and playing finals but they’ve taken the first step, and as we’ve said for a while, we don’t think they’re as far off in terms of actual talent as many have been suggesting. Also, man, the Tim Taranto ‘debate’ (or whatever you want to call it) is silly. Rank him where you want, but he’s probably winning their best and fairest right now - and we understand how he became a flashpoint, because big trades are juicy narrative-drivers and fun to write about, but good lord he’s just so obviously not the problem.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2023-power-rankings-after-round-8-analysis-highlights-every-club-ranked-ladder-predictions-contenders-latest-news/news-story/cb19912bcdf93a88cd894400613b0685
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Mick McGuane looks at the race for the eighth spot in finals and names the team most likely to win it
Seven teams look set to sail towards September, leaving eight other sides fighting for the final spot. Mick McGuane looks each of the challengers and names his top eight.
Mick McGuane
HeraldSun
May 11, 2023 - 12:00PM
We might only be a third of the way through the season, but the top seven teams look just about locked in for September.
Collingwood and Melbourne are on top of their games and on top of the ladder, St Kilda has a good draw ahead which will help it, Brisbane and Port Adelaide have got themselves on a roll, Geelong has recovered from a sluggish start to the year and the Western Bulldogs remain dangerous.
It means the rest of the competition is in a race for eighth spot.
AFL analyst Mick McGuane looks at the eight teams searching for that last finals spot — if they play their cards right.
15th – RICHMOND (2-5-1)
They might have an uphill battle ahead of them, but I’m not willing to write off Richmond just yet.
Damien Hardwick’s side looked like the Tigers of old in the second half against West Coast last week.
Yes, the Eagles were depleted and have copped a raft of heavy losses this year.
But we were looking for a change of method and some positional shifts from Richmond and we got them.
The Tigers scored a season-high 37 points from forward half intercepts against the Eagles and a season-high 64 points from forward half chains.
Hitting the scoreboard on the back of a strong, in-sync defensive structure and pressure in the forward half of the ground is exactly what this side looks like at its best.
Hardwick also spun the magnets.
Jayden Short went back into the midfield after spending most of the year in defence, Dustin Martin spent significant time onball where he can be more impressive and Marlion Pickett went from a wing to the forward line to add some much-needed pressure in that area of the ground.
The model is there going forward.
If the Tigers continue to believe and play a strong forward-half game, they are capable of turning their season around — and quickly.
MICK’S VERDICT
The Bombers are my pick to win the last spot in the top-eight.
Essendon’s fixture is favourable, with two games to come against each of West Coast and North Melbourne.
Bank those four games and that’s eight wins under your belt.
That would leave Essendon needing to win just five of its other 11 matches to qualify for September.
https://www.codesports.com.au/afl/mick-mcguane-looks-at-the-race-for-the-eighth-spot-in-finals-and-names-the-team-most-likely-to-win-it/news-story/fed8616a57d9fe89b1b7889f3d272dfc
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Foxfooty.com.au has ran through why the teams competing for that eighth spot can — and can’t — play finals, featuring key Champion Data stats supporting each.
RICHMOND
Why they can
Despite having two wins on the board, its not all gloom and doom at Punt Road. Damien Hardwick’s side is still armed with premiership stars across the board including 15 taking the field in Friday night’s clash with Geelong. They’re the sort of team that could go on serious run, just like last year, and make a push towards the top eight in the second half of the season. You just can’t rule a Hardwick-led team out, particularly if it ever gets healthy and boosted by boom midfield recruits Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper.
Key Champion Data stat - Ranked 6th in opposition score per inside 50
Why they can’t
Injuries shouldn’t be the overruling reason to blame for the Tigers’ issues, but they’re without arguably the two players they can least afford to be sidelined in Toby Nankervis and Tom Lynch, exposing the club’s key thin position stocks. While Nankervis is nearing his return, Lynch remains a ways off, and the other Tigers forwards are really struggling to carry the load, with Dustin Martin and Shai Bolton down on their brilliant best form. Richmond’s lesser names are also not quite stepping up or buying into their roles like others have in the past.
Key Champion Data stat - Ranked 18th in score per inside 50
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2023-finals-contenders-why-they-can-and-cant-make-the-top-eight-analysis-predictions-carlton-blues-concerns-latest-news/news-story/ecd1d1ea5448d6b5f7ddc4457c3b8469
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“THEY’RE BACK”: WHY THE TIGERS COULD STILL BE CONTENDERS IN 2023
Seb Mottram
SEN
13 May 2023
It was the Tigers of old on Friday night.
That was the thinking of thousands who watched Richmond’s win over Geelong where Damien Hardwick’s chaotic game style was in full flight.
The Tigers were belted in clearances and contested possessions as they often are, yet tore Geelong to shreds on transition to kick their second consecutive 100+ score and triumph by 24 points in what was an enthralling clash.
It’s Richmond’s third win of the season and the Tigers could still finish the round as low as 14th on the ladder.
But David King – who has held firm on believing in Richmond this year – believes it could be a defining performance.
“It was an amazing performance last night from the Tiges,” King began on SEN’s Crunch Time.
“We were all waiting to write them off, everyone was ready to put a line through them, it was an Elimination Final yesterday…
“They just have a know-how of how to win games of footy. It had been a tough start to the year for them they got Geelong at the right time with a few outs… but when their big boys flex, gee they're good to watch.
“(Shai) Bolton, (Dustin) Martin, (Trent) Cotchin, (Daniel) Rioli was significant, and then they just have the workers.
“They’re back. I know there’s a long way to get back into the eight and what that means who knows. Are they a contender? Most people would say no.
“But if they limped into 8th, you’d be incredibly unlucky to play the Tigers in a first final if you’ve had a pretty good year and finished 5th.
“That is them, that is how they play and they are difficult to beat and difficult to play against when they play like that.”
Hardwick has won three flags at Richmond and only missed finals once since that Grand Final triumph back in 2017.
Given their record in gaining momentum across the season, King suggested the Tigers could be about to go on a run.
“Of course they can (make the eight). You’d be a fool to write them off because they’re just finding their feet and they do this at the start of seasons every year,” the dual-premiership Kangaroo said.
“They started poor, they’ve been alright the last couple of weeks, but I think their last month has been pretty good.”
A clash of incredible proportions now looms with Dreamtime at the ‘G next Saturday against Essendon.
Games against Port Adelaide, GWS, Fremantle and St Kilda are then to come before the bye.
However, King did lament the Cats’ poor goalkicking that saw them at one point boot 5.11 and eventually 11.12.
On the Geelong side, Chris Scott suggested in his press conference he wasn’t overly fazed by the performance given the cattle on the field.
The Cats had less premiership players on the MCG than Richmond last night, through suspension and injury, but Geelong are now 5-4 after Round 9 – exactly as they were last year.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/05/13/theyre-back-why-the-tigers-could-still-be-contenders-in-2023/
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fv-TrAcaEAAznp2?format=jpg&name=900x900)
https://twitter.com/triplemfooty/status/1657205622683889664
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We heard that last season too. Not convinced.
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We heard that last season too. Not convinced.
True we did and if we are being honest we should not have lost the EF against the Lions
Premiership was there for the taking and we blew it
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We heard that last season too. Not convinced.
True we did and if we are being honest we should not have lost the EF against the Lions
Premiership was there for the taking and we blew it
Maybe not but even if we got past Brisbane, I think we would have lost to Melbourne the week after or Geelong the week after that. Just not convinced you can win from outside the top4. Doggies in 2016 was the exception not the rule.
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Maybe not but even if we got past Brisbane, I think we would have lost to Melbourne the week after or Geelong the week after that. Just not convinced you can win from outside the top4. Doggies in 2016 was the exception not the rule.
Melbourne were spent and I reckon we would have beaten them. Not sure about Geelong in a prelim, but we have a pretty good record against them in big games ;D
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Power Rankings after Round 9
Max Laughton
Fox Sports
May 16th, 2023
10. RICHMOND (3-5-1, 99.6%)
Last week’s ranking: 12
From 1-5-1, everything was going to have to go right for Richmond to challenge for the finals. Well, beating the reigning premiers - with help from their accuracy, and the Cats’ inaccuracy - counts as that. And now the Richmond Respecters (that’s us) have logged on. They’re still going to need to win a pair of tricky games over the next fortnight, first Dreamtime against the Bombers and then hosting Port Adelaide, but these Tigers at their best are good enough. Jacob Hopper’s calf strain won’t help matters but the return of Toby Nankervis, potentially as soon as this Saturday, would be huge. They’ve got to win at least nine of their last 14 games... let’s play the fixture game. Can they beat Essendon, Port, GWS (away), Fremantle (away), Sydney, West Coast (away), Hawthorn, North Melbourne and maybe the Bulldogs (Marvel) or St Kilda (MCG)? Hmm...
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2023-power-rankings-after-round-9-analysis-highlights-every-club-ranked-ladder-predictions-contenders-latest-news/news-story/eb3bf6dd1103242ca6b214bd17306f7a
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Champion Data reckons we've got the 4th easiest fixture from here onwards.
15. Richmond
R10: Essendon (MCG)
R11: Port Adelaide (MCG)
R12: GWS (GIANTS Stadium)
R13: Fremantle (Optus Stadium)
R14: St Kilda (MCG)
R15: BYE
R16: Brisbane (Gabba)
R17: Sydney Swans (MCG)
R18: West Coast (Optus)
R19: Hawthorn (MCG)
R20: Melbourne (MCG)
R21: Western Bulldogs (Marvel)
R22: St Kilda (Marvel)
R23: North Melbourne (MCG)
R24: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
The Tigers have found some form just as the fixture opens up for them. They have five remaining games against teams currently inside the bottom four, which is ranked equal-third across the competition for clashes against the league’s stragglers.
They have four matches against the current top four and two difficult match-ups at Marvel Stadium, a venue they struggle at.
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Here are the full rankings – from most difficult to least challenging run home:
1. Port Adelaide
2. Geelong
3. Brisbane
4. Fremantle
5. Carlton
6. Gold Coast
7. Hawthorn
8. GWS
9. Sydney
10. Melbourne
11. North Melbourne
12. West Coast
13. Collingwood
14. Adelaide
15. Richmond
16. W.Bulldogs
17. St Kilda
18. Essendon
https://www.codesports.com.au/afl/afl-2023-every-teams-remaining-fixture-ranked-from-hardest-to-easiest/news-story/63b415d3dfb3c0330906ea6c82bf0615
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AFL Power Ranking after Round 10
Max Laughton
Foxsports
24 May 2023
12. RICHMOND (3-6-1, 99.5%)
Last week’s ranking: 10
It’s hard to maintain our view on close games, and how heavily dependent they are on luck - which is based on decades of statistical realities across all sports - when you’ve got outliers like Collingwood and Richmond going around. We know the Magpies’ story by now but the Tigers just can’t cop a break, going winless in their last 12 games decided by a kick. And we really mean decided by a kick, after Rhyan Mansell’s on-the-full miss in the final minutes, where even a point would’ve likely ensured the Tigers couldn’t lose. Overall this year the Tigers are 0-2 with a draw in close games - coincidentally they’re two wins and a draw out of seventh. The margins are that tight this year, and now the Tigers’ margin for error to actually play finals in what should be Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt’s final year is getting incredibly small. Unfortunately those close losses likely contributed to Damien Hardwick’s growing frustration and exit; as he basically conceded in his press conference on Tuesday, he effectively reached the conclusion there would be no Last Dance-style final championship. And while they could still sneak into the eight, there is a cleanliness to his sudden exit if they miss out, as a clear line of demarcation where we can say the Hardwick-led dynasty era is over.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fw3EiHEakAAtn6-?format=jpg&name=900x900)
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2023-power-rankings-after-round-10-analysis-highlights-every-club-ranked-ladder-predictions-contenders-latest-news/news-story/d6024c0849c36ed4b650f26db3af60d6
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Power Rankings after Round 11
Max Laughton
Fox Sports
May 30th, 2023
13. RICHMOND (3-7-1, 98.4%)
Last week’s ranking: 12
At some point you have to listen to what coaches are saying - even if it’s mostly just platitudes and cliches. But Damien Hardwick’s exit and Andrew McQualter’s post-match press conference suggested the same thing; this team just isn’t playing finals. Yeah, they’re still competitive against good teams. But they know the mountain is too high for them to climb from here, even if mathematically they’re still in the hunt (though they’d really need to beat GWS in a 50-50 game this Sunday). That’s fine; they’ve got plenty of champions to celebrate over the second half of the season, including hopefully Hardwick himself at a game. But even we, the Richmond Respecters, have to log off.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2023-power-rankings-after-round-11-highlights-every-club-ranked-ladder-predictions-contenders-latest-news/news-story/9f31f0abb6f91c46a58a69c23f363c0b
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Power Rankings after Round 12
Max Laughton
Foxsports
6 June 2023
13. RICHMOND (4-7-1, 99.2%)
Last week’s ranking: 13
We would like to thank the Tigers for finally proving teams aren’t either completely and utterly cursed in close games or magically going to win all of them forever. You could almost see the lessons from their recent painful losses in action on Sunday - most notably with Jack Riewoldt not belting it forwards and instead playing brilliantly in a few centre square contests in the final minute, allowing the run of play to continue capped off by Marlion Pickett’s winner. Remarkably it’s the first time the Tigers have won a game decided by a kick since Round 9 two years ago... which was also against the Giants. (That was the Dusty-bowls-over-the-goal-umpire game... and the Dimma-hates-Marvel game.) They’re not going to recover and play finals, but they’re at least half in the conversation for another few weeks.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2023-power-rankings-after-round-12-highlights-every-club-ranked-analysis-ladder-predictions-contenders-latest-news/news-story/9e29f2ca7510ff671bc0a9affda3b99f
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Power Rankings after Round 13
Max Laughton
Fox Sports
June 14th, 2023
12. RICHMOND (5-7-1, 100.7%)
Last week’s ranking: 13
The few wins the Tigers have recorded this year have all been pretty good in their own ways - we’d still put the Geelong upset at No.1 - but going on the road and knocking off an in-form Fremantle was quite the statement from this group. Though really, it doesn’t change a huge amount about our view of this group. They were a solid, middle-of-the-pack team under Damien Hardwick who lost a few tight games (14 points to Collingwood, 18 points to Melbourne, 1 point to Essendon). Since Andrew McQualter took over they’ve lost to Port Adelaide by 10, beat GWS by 6 and beat Fremantle by 15. Their actual performances just aren’t that different... but the very binary nature of grading a team on their win-loss created a view the Tigers they weren’t bad. They are what they are, and they’re totally capable of beating St Kilda this Saturday night. They need to if they’re to keep their slim finals hopes alive.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2023-power-rankings-after-round-13-highlights-every-club-ranked-analysis-ladder-predictions-contenders-latest/news-story/1dc6a3d1c352b9ddea225a9877163582
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List our results and rank us at our ladder position -- some exceptional insight here.
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FINALS FLURRY?
Cotchin’s 300 games includes 16 finals. Could he play a 17th final in 10 weeks? Could he play on in 2024? Is Andrew McQualter making a Paul Roos-like charge for the senior job if he wants it? Those were the pertinent questions Cotchin’s milestone celebration posed.
The Tigers head to the bye sitting ninth and have games against Sydney (MCG), West Coast, Hawthorn, St Kilda and North Melbourne to come.
Source: HeraldSun (https://www.codesports.com.au/afl/early-tackle-all-the-likes-and-dislikes-from-round-14-of-the-afl-season/news-story/f63bdedb1a343981a2b53ac8f7b30c37).
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FINALS FLURRY?
Cotchin’s 300 games includes 16 finals. Could he play a 17th final in 10 weeks? Could he play on in 2024? Is Andrew McQualter making a Paul Roos-like charge for the senior job if he wants it? Those were the pertinent questions Cotchin’s milestone celebration posed.
The Tigers head to the bye sitting ninth and have games against Sydney (MCG), West Coast, Hawthorn, St Kilda and North Melbourne to come.
Source: HeraldSun (https://www.codesports.com.au/afl/early-tackle-all-the-likes-and-dislikes-from-round-14-of-the-afl-season/news-story/f63bdedb1a343981a2b53ac8f7b30c37).
yes and those games against saints and north are at Docklands :shh
add buldogs at Pooiad as well.
lets not get too excited.
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Would need to win more than the 5 games mentioned to make it
One week at a time :snidegrin
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Would need to win more than the 5 games mentioned to make it
One week at a time :snidegrin
Need to beat North, WCE and hawks
3 of the other 6 and then fingers crossed
12.5 might not be enough
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Would need to win more than the 5 games mentioned to make it
One week at a time :snidegrin
Need to beat North, WCE and hawks
3 of the other 6 and then fingers crossed
12.5 might not be enough
There’s an extra round this season, so you’d think 13 or in our case 13.5 wins would be the minimum.
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Dermie has us as his 4th seed now :o.
BRERETON
1. Port Adelaide
“Right now if you played a lightning premiership this weekend.
“If everyone played everyone else right now, Port Adelaide win.”
2. Collingwood
“Two is Collingwood.”
3. Melbourne
“Three is Melbourne.”
4. Richmond
“I’ve gone Richmond, five of their last seven, they tip Brisbane out of fourth.
“Brisbane versus St Kilda is awesome coming up, then in 10 days Brisbane play Richmond.
“If they win both of those games they come back in.”
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/06/19/whateley-and-breretons-top-four-seeds-after-round-14-2023/
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Another Tiger surge looms
IN TODAY'S AFL Daily, star journalists Damian Barrett and Josh Gabelich join all the dots on football's big issues.
- There's life yet in these Tigers - can they surge into another finals series?
LISTEN HERE: https://omny.fm/shows/afl-daily/afl-daily-19-06-23
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Finals on the cards? The Tigers are suddenly looking ominous
Rohan Connolly
ESPN
Jun 19, 2023
It can be hard to give up on something that once was great, be it a relationship or indeed a relationship with a football team. Even more so when it's one which managed to land three premierships in four seasons.
I refused to get off the Richmond bandwagon when they failed to make the finals in 2021, and even after they bowed out in the first week of finals action last year, instead tipping the Tigers to reach the Grand Final in 2023.
By Round 7, however, after a home defeat to Gold Coast made it just one victory (and a draw) nearly one-third of the way through the season, reality had slapped us Richmond believers in the face enough to concede defeat.
And now? After 14 rounds? Well, as Al Pacino puts it in Godfather III: "Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!"
We've seen this narrative enough before, of course. Who knows, we might even be seeing it concurrently with Geelong as well.
You know how it goes. A fading power's best is still potent enough to beat anyone on a given day. The heavyweight gets on a bit of a roll and scrapes into the lower reaches of the eight, from where it appears more than capable of doing some serious damage. Before either the strain of the effort getting there, the greater inconsistency now, or both, nips it all in the bud.
The rational part of me thinks that's likely to happen in this case as well. And yet...
Since that loss to the Suns, it's been five wins from seven for Richmond, with the two defeats by a total of just 11 points. But there's other factors combining to potentially put Richmond very much back in the ball game this season.
And that's beyond even the most obvious, which is that narrow losses are now being turned into narrow wins, the Tigers having now won their last three games by six, 15 and 20 points.
Richmond's draw is challenging in parts, beginning with Brisbane at the Gabba after the bye next week, and taking in games against Melbourne, and Port Adelaide away. Yet there's also pretty winnable assignments against Sydney at the MCG, West Coast, Hawthorn, and North Melbourne.
And the Tigers' rivals for the top eight currently ahead of Richmond on the ladder? Essendon looks like it will make it at this stage. But St Kilda has now alternated between win and loss for nine games in a row. Adelaide hasn't played finals for six years and has the second-youngest and least experienced list in the competition.
Both Fremantle and Gold Coast proved on the weekend they're still prone to the odd shocker. We're not talking about the best of the best here.
Richmond's best, however, is being produced for longer periods now under Andrew McQualter. It's not just Tim Taranto picking up a ton of touches. The often hard-to-pinpoint but critical x-factor is coming back.
Shai Bolton has been a major part of that, and after winning plenty of football over the past weeks, he also hit the scoreboard hard in Saturday night's win over St Kilda.
Trent Cotchin's 300th was a bit of fairytale, but he's been very good for a couple of games now, winning more clearances over the past fortnight than he had in the previous eight games. Ditto the last two for Dustin Martin.
Nick Vlastuin, Nathan Broad and Noah Balta are providing the defensive anchor for Richmond and plenty of rebound besides. And what was a problematic forward set-up is starting to tick over a lot more efficiently again, even with spearhead Tom Lynch still a long-term casualty.
That 13.12 (90) scoreline in the pouring rain against the Saints shouldn't be underestimated. And it followed 16.14 against GWS and another winning score against Fremantle in Perth in between.
Richmond was ranked last for scores per inside 50 after Damien Hardwick's last game in charge, the pivotal Dreamtime loss to Essendon. But that had improved to 15th before Saturday night's victory, in which the Tigers managed 25 scores from their 58 inside 50s, again well above what had been a dismal strike rate.
There's more upside, too, ahead of this week's break for Richmond, in who might return after it. One obvious addition is midfielder Jacob Hopper, whose presence would alleviate some of the load on Taranto.
Another less-heralded but potentially important presence also is that of clever forward Noah Cumberland. He's had his issues with the coaching panel and more recently injury, but I think the Tigers always look more dangerous with him lurking near goal.
Tom Lynch? His return from a serious foot injury is still a light on the distant horizon. But the irony here is that while it's hard to see Richmond going far in finals without Lynch were the Tigers to make it, his absence and that old line about "necessity being the mother of invention" might just be underlining why there's still a bit of life in this playing group yet.
All over? You still wouldn't want to be an aspirant for the final eight taking on the Tigers in the run home, whether Richmond ends up getting there or not. And if they don't? Well, in the manner of all truly great eras for teams, I'm not sure it will be all over even then.
https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/37875804/afl-round-14-rohan-connolly-richmond-tigers-ominous-andrew-mcqualter-finals-table
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Ominous isn't the word I would use.
Have managed to get over the line against 3 teams who probably should be in the middle third.
None of the wins have been overly convincing.
If we get the better of Brisbane up there then I'll be more interested.
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What has stood out over the last few weeks is the back 6 are running into some great form. Balta isn't just playing well, he is maturing at a rapid rate lately. Broad & Grimes are both humming along nicely, Daniel Rioli is no longer our shining light across HB he is just another defender doing a great job. Short has the luxury of getting up to HF & having a ping at goals more often these days. So well are the back 6 going that our hard nosed little commando in Baker is now rotating through the midfield & floating through the forward half!
The return of Vlaustin has put us over the top & forged our back 6 into a really seriously good unit, there is barely a star among them, just 6 blokes who don't want to lose.
All power to them!
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The HeraldSun is predicting us to win 6 of our last 9 matches and finish 8th with 12.5 wins.
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Run Home: Every AFL club’s last 10 weeks, final predicted ladder
Chris Cavanagh
HeraldSun
June 20, 2023
Only 10 weeks remain in the AFL home-and-away season as the race towards finals heats up.
We’ve taken a look at every team’s run home to try and find out what the final eight might look like come the end of August.
9. RICHMOND
Played: 14, Won: 6, Lost: 7, Drawn: 1, Points: 26, Percentage: 102.4
R15: Bye
R16: Brisbane, Gabba (L)
R17: Sydney, MCG (W)
R18: West Coast, Optus (W)
R19: Hawthorn, MCG (W)
R20: Melbourne, MCG (L)
R21: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (W)
R22: St Kilda, Marvel (W)
R23: North Melbourne, MCG (W)
R24: Port Adelaide, AO (L)
Predicted Finish: 8th (12-1-10)
Queue the ‘ninth’ jibes. But there is a very real possibility that a resurgent Richmond could climb to seventh or eighth spot by season’s end. Hear us out. The Tigers face five current top-eight sides in the run home, but have already beaten St Kilda this season and have been right in games against Melbourne (18-point loss), Western Bulldogs (five-point loss) and Port Adelaide (10-point loss). Richmond’s other four games are against the current bottom-four sides – Sydney, West Coast, Hawthorn and North Melbourne. So, if they bank those and pinch at least game against one of the better sides, they’re in.
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CAV’S FINAL PREDICTED LADDER
1. Collingwood (20-3)
2. Port Adelaide (20-3
3. Melbourne (19-4)
4. Brisbane (17-6)
5. Essendon (15-8)
6. Geelong (13-10)
7. Western Bulldogs (13-10)
8. Richmond (12-1-10)
------------------------------
9. Adelaide (12-11)
10. St Kilda (11-10)
11. Gold Coast (10-13)
12. Carlton (9-14)
13. GWS Giants (9-14)
14. Fremantle (9-14)
15. Hawthorn (7-16)
16. Sydney (6-17)
17. North Melbourne (3-20)
18. West Coast (1-22)
https://www.codesports.com.au/afl/run-home-every-afl-clubs-last-10-weeks-final-predicted-ladder/news-story/2c5c4805e3811fb534263f6cc6e6a889
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AFL Power Rankings after Round 14
Max Laughton
Foxsports
20 June 2023
5. RICHMOND (6-7-1, 102.4%)
Last week’s ranking: 12
It feels preposterous pushing a team up this far this quickly, but at the same time, that really speaks to just how even the middle of the pack is. And it’s hard to argue with the Tigers’ form - three straight wins, better than everyone except Essendon and Port Adelaide, and against tougher opponents than the Bombers. (Of course, the Bombers did beat Richmond, but by a point... and it’s literally impossible to respect every head-to-head result.) Knocking off GWS away seems even better a few weeks removed, and two rain-hit wins over Fremantle and St Kilda have propelled Richmond all the way up into ninth on the ladder. Admittedly they’ve played an extra game, but they’re unlikely to fall much further than 11th after the upcoming round. They’ve made a few changes under Andrew McQualter but broadly speaking this feels like the team we tipped in the pre-season to make the top four just finding form and actually having some luck in the close ones. It’s not going to be easy to make the eight from here, but that’s really the case for everyone outside it right now - and if the Tigers get there, they might finally be healthy. And therefore dangerous.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2023-power-rankings-after-round-14-highlights-every-club-ranked-analysis-ladder-predictions-contenders-latest/news-story/16937a4e4a60fbb3c4c5181812b2f82b
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Results of the non-Richmond matches have been all over the place in recent weeks. Premiership is wide open for whoever wants it IMHO.
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If we beat Brisbane, look out!! The caboose will be transformed into a fast train and storm into finals. Then all is possible, we've proved that already
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The Run Home: Where every AFL club will finish on the ladder, and who’ll play finals
Max Laughton
Fox Sports
June 26th, 2023
PROJECTED FINAL LADDER
1. Collingwood (17.5 projected wins)
2. Port Adelaide (17.4)
3. Brisbane Lions (15.7)
4. Melbourne (14.85)
5. Western Bulldogs (13.15)
6. St Kilda (12.65)
7. Essendon (12.6)
8. Geelong (12.45)
------------------------------
9. Adelaide Crows (12.2)
10. Fremantle (11.5)
11. Richmond (11.4)
12. Gold Coast Suns (11.3)
13. Sydney Swans (10.15)
14. Carlton (10.1)
15. GWS Giants (9.6)
16. Hawthorn (7.5)
17. North Melbourne (4.65)
18. West Coast Eagles (2.25)
12. RICHMOND (6-7-1, 102.4%)
Remaining games:
Round 16: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Round 17: Sydney Swans at the MCG
Round 18: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium
Round 19: Hawthorn at the MCG
Round 20: Melbourne at the MCG
Round 21: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium
Round 23: North Melbourne at the MCG
Round 24: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Remaining fixture difficulty: Third-easiest
Since Andrew McQualter took the interim reins, the Tigers have taken their chances while other sides didn’t, with a 3-1 record and the sole loss coming by just 10 points to Port Adelaide. The wins were pretty good too - two away, and one over the team in fifth. We feel this was just Richmond’s talent, which a lot of analysts (including us) saw in the pre-season, finally shining through. So is a shock finals run on the cards? Some help from a team above them collapsing would be handy but yes, it’s certainly possible. They should be aiming to win three of their next four, and combined with a likely win over the Kangaroos, that gets them to 10 and a half. They may only need two more from there - could it come down to Rounds 21 and 22, against the Bulldogs and Saints? Those games feel critical, not just to build the Tigers’ win total but to cut into the leads those teams currently hold. Remember, these projections are by nature conservative, because they’re based on probability - it’s hard to project a team to overcome a rival’s two-win headstart. But we do it like that because it’s an accurate reflection of how likely teams really are to win those games (rather than just saying yep they win this, no they lose this, etc). All of that is to say - it’s in Richmond’s hands.
Fox Footy’s projection: 11.4 projected wins, finishing 11th
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2023-the-run-home-after-round-15-predicted-ladder-top-eight-finals-ladder-predictor-analysis-fixture/news-story/c770d868c303f7842e36c1a3637863d8
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Definitely a logjam in the middle of the ladder. We're only a game and a half from 5th spot.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FzgQ0uJaYAA6fKY?format=jpg&name=900x900)
https://twitter.com/AFL/status/1673105769041137664
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Nathan Buckley's predicted top eight at the end of the 2023 season!
- Collingwood
- Port Adelaide
- Melbourne
- Brisbane
- Geelong
- Adelaide
- Essendon
- Fremantle
Eighth place
Given Buckley has Adelaide, Essendon and Geelong making the eight, here are his thoughts on eighth place.
“For eighth spot, between Fremantle, the Bulldogs and I like Richmond, they’re the three teams vying for eight to me and I’ve actually got Fremantle sneaking in,” Buckley said.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/06/25/nathan-buckley-predicts-the-final-top-8-for-the-2023-afl-season/
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David King's seedings after Round 15
1. Collingwood
2. Port Adelaide
3. Brisbane
4. Melbourne
5. Richmond
“They’re 12th on the table the Tigers but I think they win three of the next four.
“That will be enough I think to get them into the eight and then away we go.
“I’ve got them coming with a rush… if they can remain remotely healthy I think they can make a charge.”
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/06/26/king-and-whateleys-top-four-seeds-after-round-15-2023/
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Power Rankings after Round 15
Max Laughton
Fox Sports
June 27th, 2023
6. RICHMOND (6-7-1, 102.4%)
Last week’s ranking: 5
The Tigers had the bye, and only move down because of the Cats’ impressive win over a top-four side. Having said that they’re a prime example of how the ladder lies during the bye rounds. They looked super dangerous going into the weekend, sitting ninth... and now because three teams below them won, they’re 12th. One of just two teams on a three-game (or better) winning streak, we wouldn’t expect them to do what few teams can do and knock off Brisbane away - their shot at a surprise finals berth starts in Round 17, when a home game against Sydney kicks off a very winnable three weeks. They should be aiming to be 9-8-1 in a months’ time.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/one-word-sums-up-utter-shambles-win-exposes-scary-truth-we-all-forgot-power-rankings/news-story/cdd3f67901bdf2381131fcb4f48bb6ea
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Run Home: Every AFL club’s last nine weeks, final predicted ladder
Will Hogan
HeraldSun
June 27, 2023
RICHMOND
Played: 14, Won: 6, Lost: 7, Drawn: 1, Points: 26, Percentage: 102.4
R16: Brisbane, Gabba (L)
R17: Sydney, MCG (W)
R18: West Coast, Optus (W)
R19: Hawthorn, MCG (W)
R20: Melbourne, MCG (L)
R21: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (L)
R22: St Kilda, Marvel (W)
R23: North Melbourne, MCG (W)
R24: Port Adelaide, AO (L)
Predicted Finish: 9th (11-1-11)
There are many Tigers fans who think the finals dream is still alive and they’re right despite a predicted 9th finish. They have a winnable game against the Dogs in round 21 which could shape how the eight looks. At this stage just half a game out in our final ladder and we know a surging Tigers outfit could flip the script at some point in the last nine games.
PREDICTED FINAL LADDER
1. Collingwood (20-3)
2. Port Adelaide (20-3)
3. Melbourne (17-6)
4. Brisbane (16-7)
5. Western Bulldogs (14-9)
6. Adelaide (13-10)*
7. Geelong (13-10)*
8. Fremantle (12-11)
------------------------------
9. Richmond (11-1-11)
10. St Kilda (11-12)*
11. Essendon (11-12)*
12. Gold Coast (11-12)*
13. Sydney (10-13)
14. Carlton (9-1-13)
15. GWS Giants (9-14)
16. Hawthorn (5-18)
17. North Melbourne (3-20)
18. West Coast (1-22)
*percentage could change finishing spots
https://www.codesports.com.au/afl/run-home-every-afl-clubs-last-nine-weeks-final-predicted-ladder/news-story/e7c5cd6793bc4f9cd76e00f8a2a4b9e4
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So they have us beating every team below us on the ladder and losing to every team above us (other than the saints). You can tell they put a lot of thought into it. If only footy were that easy.
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So they have us beating every team below us on the ladder and losing to every team above us (other than the saints). You can tell they put a lot of thought into it. If only footy were that easy.
What do you want from them TK. Teams have been better than us thus they are higher on the ladder.
Brisbane Loss at the gabba is fair enough. Loss
Sydney okay we are travelling better than them atm but they like us are getting players back it aint a monty. Win but not a cert.
WCE should be a gimme and it had better be a big win percentage could well play a part. Big win
Hawthorn well we should win but again it is not a cert. win but had better go into it half arsed.
Melbourne have had the better of us and the real Missing bit in all these big games is Lynch. Loss
Footscray at marvel. that is a loss the way we play there.
StKilda at marvel. Personally i have the saints as favorites because of where it is played. Loss.
North melbourne at the G should be a win.
Port Adelaide over there is a loss just based on the last game.
As the resident pessimist im only prepared to say 4 wins as certs. Still need to find two surprise wins to be a chance of finals.
Also we need to stay healthy especially with key personell because we all know the depth is shallow.
You think they could have been kinder with their assesment they could also have been a bit more cruel.
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WCE should be a gimme and it had better be a big win percentage could well play a part.
How do you envisage percentage playing a part?
Carlton have
Freo away
Port
Stk
Collingwood
Melbourne
GC away
Do you see them going 7-2 with that lot to get up to 12.5?
Or are you expecting another draw along the way?
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From Barrett's 'Sliding Doors' column:
(https://resources.afl.com.au/photo-resources/2020/11/17/8a4c2df0-2497-41a0-85ac-8cab8feed48a/richmond.jpg?width=952)
IF ...
I’d bought into the Richmond-could-make-finals thing ...
THEN ...
after Thursday night, I’m selling. Sometimes the ladder lies, and sometimes it doesn’t.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/957759/if-lachie-neale-has-already-won-a-brownlow-then
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WCE should be a gimme and it had better be a big win percentage could well play a part.
How do you envisage percentage playing a part?
Carlton have
Freo away
Port
Stk
Collingwood
Melbourne
GC away
Do you see them going 7-2 with that lot to get up to 12.5?
Or are you expecting another draw along the way?
Like tonight :P.
If Carlton beat the Hawks, we'll be behind all 3 other clubs that have had a draw. Not the week to put in our most pathetic % costing effort in 7 years :banghead.
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WCE should be a gimme and it had better be a big win percentage could well play a part.
How do you envisage percentage playing a part?
Carlton have
Freo away
Port
Stk
Collingwood
Melbourne
GC away
Do you see them going 7-2 with that lot to get up to 12.5?
Or are you expecting another draw along the way?
Like tonight :P.
If Carlton beat the Hawks, we'll be behind all 3 other clubs that have had a draw. Not the week to put in our most pathetic % costing effort in 7 years :banghead.
True, but let's get real, it isn't going to matter much. We're very likely to finish at least 2 or 3 wins short of 8th place.
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WCE should be a gimme and it had better be a big win percentage could well play a part.
How do you envisage percentage playing a part?
Carlton have
Freo away
Port
Stk
Collingwood
Melbourne
GC away
Do you see them going 7-2 with that lot to get up to 12.5?
Or are you expecting another draw along the way?
Like tonight :P.
If Carlton beat the Hawks, we'll be behind all 3 other clubs that have had a draw. Not the week to put in our most pathetic % costing effort in 7 years :banghead.
True, but let's get real, it isn't going to matter much. We're very likely to finish at least 2 or 3 wins short of 8th place.
Next week we'll know for sure. Lose and it is goodbye finals. Win and we'll still in the running.
One terrible loss doesn't make a season. That infamous St Kilda game at Docklands in 2017 was in round 16 too :o.
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WCE should be a gimme and it had better be a big win percentage could well play a part.
How do you envisage percentage playing a part?
Carlton have
Freo away
Port
Stk
Collingwood
Melbourne
GC away
Do you see them going 7-2 with that lot to get up to 12.5?
Or are you expecting another draw along the way?
Like tonight :P.
If Carlton beat the Hawks, we'll be behind all 3 other clubs that have had a draw. Not the week to put in our most pathetic % costing effort in 7 years :banghead.
We are miles from either of those sides in percentage
Even before Thursday night
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Crows and Dogs won. So, we're back to being a game and half out of the Eight.
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Foxsports says we have the easiest draw from here on but they are still predicting us to finish 11th.
The Run Home after Round 16
Max Laughton
Foxsports
2 July 2023
- Richmond-Sydney on Thursday night is a mini elimination final, since the six-win teams can pretty much only afford two more losses.
15. RICHMOND (6-8-1, 95.6%)
Remaining games:
Round 17: Sydney Swans at the MCG
Round 18: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium
Round 19: Hawthorn at the MCG
Round 20: Melbourne at the MCG
Round 21: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium
Round 23: North Melbourne at the MCG
Round 24: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Remaining fixture difficulty: Easiest
We were going to happily explain about how it didn’t really matter whether Richmond lost to Brisbane by one point or by a billion - because of the draw on the record, their percentage was basically irrelevant, so it was just whether they lost at all. But now Geelong and Sydney’s draw means the Tigers would lose a tie to them; it’s an unlikely scenario but one that exists. More to the point the simply awful manner of the beatdown reminds everyone that, oh yeah, Richmond won a few games in a row, and they’re somewhere in this very large peloton of teams, but they’re still reasonably flawed and well behind the actual contenders. Next week’s clash with Sydney is a virtual elimination final, since both teams probably need to win six of their last eight games to make the eight. After all with the Tigers still needing to play the Dees and Power, you’d suggest the Swans are one of their six easiest opponents left.
Fox Footy’s projection: 11.1 projected wins, finishing 11th
PROJECTED FINAL LADDER
1. Collingwood (17.9 projected wins)
2. Port Adelaide (17.8)
3. Brisbane Lions (16)
4. Melbourne (14.15)
5. Western Bulldogs (13.55)
6. St Kilda (12.8)
7. Geelong (12.4)
8. Adelaide Crows (12.35)
--------------------------------------------
9. Essendon (12.15)
10. Fremantle (11.1)
11. Richmond (11.1)
12. Gold Coast Suns (10.9)
13. GWS Giants (10.5)
14. Carlton (10.4)
15. Sydney Swans (10.2)
16. Hawthorn (7.05)
17. North Melbourne (4.5)
18. West Coast Eagles (2.1)
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2023-the-run-home-after-round-16-predicted-ladder-top-eight-finals-ladder-predictor-analysis-fixture/news-story/59bc85665512d042faa4d5fa7e4ec25d
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I don't mind them aiming for finals but it should be achieved on the back of playing kids.
Looking long term we will lack mids i cannot believe we are not pumping games into Sonsie.If we play him then don't hide him away in the fwd line play him in his best role.
Banks as a hb or wing has to be a better option than Ross and call it role or whatever but McIntosh who turns 30 at the start of next season has always been deficient. To top it off Pickett will be 32 is no longer playing wing and is struggling. We need to upgrade our wings that is widely accepted i think
Brown well we cant plan for injury but now he is fit time to find Rioli's partner on the other flank god forbid that would mean Baker or Short do not play in defense. The other option would be to play Brown and Banks on the wings. Pick 17 and a good sized running hb is required.
Gibcus when fit needs to play kpd with talls Balta Grimes and Broad around him he will have plenty of cover. It also means god forbid Young doesnt play and Tarrant can retire gracefully. He is the long term partner for Balta.
Bauer/Bradtke/Nyuon well all year ive carried on about just getting games into a tall forward. Idea was to play one of the two when one struggled play the other. Going by reports Bradtke is not ready but what else does Bauer have to do to get a game. Nyuon well they have given up on him playing as a defender it seems so lets see what he can offer fwd.Surely we can try one of them at a time. there is a need to anyway.
Continue to play Ryan though i think he could do with a spell this week to find a bit of confidence in the two's. He is the opposite to Nankervis and because of it a good foil.
The path we take next year should be the path we take now injuries permitting. We have to stop finding ways to play older blokes at the expense of kids and do the opposite find ways to play kids in their best roles
Vlastuin - Balta - Grimes Miller for now with Gibcus still injured.
Brown - Gibcus - Rioli.
Banks - Taranto* - Broad. Have always liked the idea of Broad playing the defensive wing role. It allows Brown to play h/b
Nankervis - Hopper - Sonsie#. Midfield is Sonsies best go imo.
Clarke - Riewoldt - Martin*. Martin and Taranto rotate
Bauer - Lynch - Bolton#. Bolton, Prestia, Sonsie rotate.
Ryan - Baker - Prestia# - Short.
McIntosh - Graham.
That allows Banks, Gibcus, Brown, Sonsie, Clarke, Bauer and Ryan to get regular games. Bauer aside they all will be in at least yr 3 it is time to just play em and hopefully they show enough.
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Have to agree Claw.
All the hiatus about who we draft then not play them. Just ridiculous.
This year is done so let’s see what we have moving forward
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Mathematically, Richmond are a game and a half out of the eight, plus a whack of percentage. That doesn’t sound insurmountable with eight rounds to go – their destiny isn’t out of their own hands yet – but on Thursday night’s evidence, this team is done. Their ball use and movement were atrocious, with the Lions making them look old (which, aside from Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt, they’re not) and slow (which they are). - Andrew Stafford
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/the-pies-are-warming-up-but-are-richmond-done-key-takeouts-for-round-16-20230627-p5djsn.html
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The run home: Tigers in trouble
Michael Whiting
afl.com.au
3 July 2023
15. Richmond
26 points (six wins, eight losses, one draw), 95.6 per cent
Getting hammered by Brisbane didn't help their cause, but the Tigers have an opportunity in the next three weeks to keep themselves in the top-eight hunt with matches against teams level or below them on the ladder. Aside from the trip to Perth to face West Coast in round 18, their only other game outside Melbourne is the daunting final round against high-flying Port Adelaide. The Tigers could start favourites in five - or six if they get rolling - matches. It's a lot of work to do, and unlikely, but still not impossible.
The run home:
R17: Sydney @ MCG
R18: West Coast @ Optus Stadium
R19: Hawthorn @ MCG
R20: Melbourne @ MCG
R21: Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium
R22: St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium
R23: North Melbourne @ MCG
R24: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
https://www.afl.com.au/news/958077/the-run-home-dogs-make-a-charge-tigers-in-trouble
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Power Rankings after Round 16
Max Laughton
Foxsports
4 July 2023
9. RICHMOND (6-8-1, 95.6%)
Last week’s ranking: 6
We don’t want to completely throw away the confidence we gained in the Tigers over their three-game winning streak, but the entirely flat manner of their loss to Brisbane makes that hard. It’s not like we thought Richmond would win; we just thought they’d, you know, show up? Already announcing Sam Banks and Jacob Bauer will debut on Thursday night is interesting - are they trying to manage expectations? Or are they just acknowledging even if they sneak into the eight, while it’d be a great story (and they could probably win a game or two), that’s not really what this season is about from here? If they beat Sydney, they’re still in the finals mix, but likely needing another five wins from their last seven.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2023-power-rankings-after-round-16-highlights-every-club-ranked-analysis-ladder-predictions-contenders-latest/news-story/9adb3a6aca31c441b723d5ea23d48b2c
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Tigers’ burning question: Is it now or never for Richmond and coach Andrew McQualter?
Fox Footy’s David King dubs July “the big boy month”. It’s a four-week period where premiership-hopeful clubs make their move. And we’re not saying the Tigers are in premiership contention here - but it’s a month the club has used to success in recent years to set themselves up. This year, it could be to set up a final tilt at finals, or set McQualter up in the job for 2024 and beyond. Statistics show the Tigers went 15-3 for the month of July between 2017 and 2020. “Richmond had a way of doing it - they were amazing during this period in their premiership years,” King said on AFL 360. “We’re spot on when we talk about this is the month of opportunity.” McQualter had impressed with three wins in four games - with that one loss coming against premiership fancies Port Adelaide before last weekend’s devastating loss to Brisbane. Now the side needs to respond.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2023-the-blowtorch-round-17-preview-every-clubs-burning-question-fox-footy-commentators-tv-broadcast-guide-fixture-news/news-story/a59191e8545646b8f1d8f00f1e4bb308
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From Barrett's 'Sliding Doors' column:
(https://resources.afl.com.au/photo-resources/2020/11/17/8a4c2df0-2497-41a0-85ac-8cab8feed48a/richmond.jpg?width=952)
IF ...
three of the Tigers' remaining matches are against the dreadful three teams on the bottom of the ladder ...
THEN ...
finals remain a massive possibility. And once again, if they get there, look out.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/963060/if-weideman-and-wright-can-t-hit-the-scoreboard-then
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Barrett flips from ‘there’s a reason they’re bottom 10’ to ‘there’s a chance they’ll make it and they’ll be dangerous if they do’ almost weekly.
-
Parrot is a Flip. :shh
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From Barrett's 'Sliding Doors' column:
(https://resources.afl.com.au/photo-resources/2020/11/17/8a4c2df0-2497-41a0-85ac-8cab8feed48a/richmond.jpg?width=952)
IF ...
three of the Tigers' remaining matches are against the dreadful three teams on the bottom of the ladder ...
THEN ...
finals remain a massive possibility. And once again, if they get there, look out.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/963060/if-weideman-and-wright-can-t-hit-the-scoreboard-then
:lol What a turkey this guy is
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West Coast have been terrible- but they’re more competitive at home . We wouldn’t want to give them a sniff as they’ll win one sooner or later .
Hawthorn can best anyone on their day - they can also not turn up .
Our backline is holding up and the midfield is competitive but the forward line keeps me awake at night . How reliant we are on a cooked , past his prime champion.
Nervously optimistic.
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So we’re going to be 6 points off 5th-7th and 2-4points off 8th.
2 winnable games to come.
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So we’re going to be 6 points off 5th-7th and 2-4points off 8th.
2 winnable games to come.
Finals door wide open if we're good and hungry enough.
Need to tick both off if we want to make finals. We can't afford to take any game lightly though. Our ressies stupidly found that out the hard way.
If the results of the other games in the next two rounds go as expected, then we might even be sitting in the Eight if we win both these games.
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Fox Footy is now predicting us to finish 10th.
Run Home after Rd 17: Race to 13 heats up after Dons’ mini-final win as Tigers, Blues surge into hunt
Max Laughton
Foxsports
9 July 2023
- Richmond is the most likely team to play finals from outside the top nine, with their extra two points from the draw putting them in a similar spot to Adelaide, but they’d still need to win five of their last seven games which will be tricky;
12. RICHMOND (7-8-1, 96.9%)
Remaining games
Round 18: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium
Round 19: Hawthorn at the MCG
Round 20: Melbourne at the MCG
Round 21: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium
Round 23: North Melbourne at the MCG
Round 24: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Remaining fixture difficulty: Easiest
A thrilling win in Thursday night’s mini-final over Sydney keeps the Tigers well and truly in the hunt. Their draw still comes in handy against every team around them bar Geelong - so if Andrew McQualter’s men can win five of their last seven games, and they finish on 12 and a half wins, that may just be enough. You’d expect them to win their next two, and beat North Melbourne in Round 23, so their season is really on the line against the Dees, Dogs and Saints. Beat all three and they’re playing finals. Beat two and they’re in a very good (but beatable) spot. Beat just one or none, and we’d say they’re done.
Fox Footy’s projection: 11.55 wins, finishing 10th
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F0lrx0waEAAqJEk?format=jpg&name=900x900)
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2023-the-run-home-after-round-17-predicted-ladder-top-eight-finals-ladder-predictor-analysis-fixture/news-story/078be76b714f171bd59e766ff72b04ea
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Let’s get through the next 2 games and then see what happens. Melbourne without fritsch and Oliver may still be out by then too. I’d give us a big shot against them with those 2 missing.
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I’d love to storm home and scrape the 8 with now a fit martin. We got rolled by Brisbane last year with an underdone dusty but he is our talisman and if he’s in form finals opponents better beware
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The Run Home after Round 17
Sarah Black
afl.com.au
10 July 2023
12. Richmond
30 points (seven wins, eight losses, one draw), 96.9 per cent
The Tigers came into the round in 15th, but secured a much-needed win over Sydney in their first game of former coach Damien Hardwick's infamous "big boy month" of July. Pencil in next week against West Coast (the Tigers have a decent record in Perth), and Hawthorn should be straightforward, but three decisive matches against Melbourne, the Western Bulldogs and St Kilda – the latter two at the bogey ground of Marvel Stadium – will see the Tigers either sink or swim.
The run home
R18: West Coast @ Optus Stadium
R19: Hawthorn @ MCG
R20: Melbourne @ MCG
R21: Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium
R22: St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium
R23: North Melbourne @ MCG
R24: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
https://www.afl.com.au/news/963072/the-run-home-dockers-stumble-bombers-make-a-move
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Must win v …
West Coast
Hawthorn
North Melbourne
Need to win 3/4 v …
Melbourne
St Kilda
Western Bulldogs
Port Adelaide
13.5 wins should cement a spot
would 12.5 be “just enough”? Depending on other results
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If we make the 8 we can challenge but 2 things need to happen other than making the 8.
Lynch needs to be fit and firing.
Riewoldt needs to stop being a witches hat, find form or not play. He has played 2 good game all year. Other than that been a sooky spectator
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AFL Power Rankings after Round 17
Ben Waterworth
Fox Sports
July 11th, 2023
9. RICHMOND (7-8-1, 96.9%)
Last week’s ranking: 9
There’s still a pulse in 2023 for Andrew McQualter’s Tigers after a tight win over Sydney. In fact, are their close game fortunes slowly changing? In the previous two seasons, the Tigers had struggled to emerge from close games victorious, with their win-loss record during that period in games decided by six points or less 1-8-2. But this year they’re 2-2 and while the final margin against the Swans was 13 points, there was only one point separating the two teams with under a minute to go. Co-captain Toby Nankervis seems destined for a lengthy suspension from the tribunal in what looms as a big blow for Richmond, unless Ivan Soldo can hit the ground running upon return.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2023-power-rankings-after-round-17-highlights-every-club-ranked-analysis-ladder-predictions-contenders-latest/news-story/61a06624a78274622f469d1a42c48cb8
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Run Home: Every club’s last seven games, predicting where your team will finish
Carlton and Richmond won themselves back into top-eight calculations after round 17, but can they squeeze into the finals?
Chris Cavanagh
HeraldSun
July 11, 2023
12. RICHMOND
Played: 16, Won: 7, Lost: 8, Drawn: 1, Points: 30, Percentage: 96.9
RUN HOME
R18: West Coast, Optus (W)
R19: Hawthorn, MCG (W)
R20: Melbourne, MCG (L)
R21: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (L)
R22: St Kilda, Marvel (L)
R23: North Melbourne, MCG (W)
R24: Port Adelaide, AO (L)
Predicted finish: 11th (10-1-12)
A fighting win over Sydney last Thursday night kept the Tigers in the hunt for finals. However, that now looks an unlikely result as the side finds itself one game and percentage out of the top-eight with seven games to go. Richmond should chalk up wins against bottom-four sides West Coast, Hawthorn and North Melbourne. But they would also need to beat at least one top-eight side in Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda or Port Adelaide to be any chance. That’s possible, but you wouldn’t say it’s likely.
https://www.codesports.com.au/afl/run-home-every-clubs-last-seven-games-predicting-where-your-team-will-finish/news-story/26805a9c04f83c905f8a05b36ef72239
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At face value I agree with their predictions but tbh I didn't see us beating GWS, Freo or Saints either.
If we can sneak 1 win against Dees, Dogs, Saints or Port we are a chance to make the 8. If we can win 2 of them we will make it.
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At face value I agree with their predictions but tbh I didn't see us beating GWS, Freo or Saints either.
If we can sneak 1 win against Dees, Dogs, Saints or Port we are a chance to make the 8. If we can win 2 of them we will make it.
We’ll need more than 1 win from those 4. 11.5 wins wouldn’t get you into the 8 in all but 1 of the past 10 seasons not including the covid shortened one. Magic number is usually 12 wins, then you have to remember this season is 1 round longer than in the past. So I reckon 13.5 wins would be the minimum we need to make the top8. If (and this isn’t garaunteed) we beat the 3 teams below us on the ladder then I think we’ll still need to win 3 of the 4 games against the sides currently in the 8. Tough ask.
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If we make the 8 we can challenge but 2 things need to happen other than making the 8.
Lynch needs to be fit and firing.
Riewoldt needs to stop being a witches hat, find form or not play. He has played 2 good game all year. Other than that been a sooky spectator
Oh deary me stupidity really is a forte of yours.
If you ever stopped and asked yourself why JR is doing it tough then you would not have posted that dribble.
Italians play soccer id say you should stick to it going by that.
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We will be doing well just to make finals. Challenge !!! well thats entirely another story.
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If we make the 8 we can challenge but 2 things need to happen other than making the 8.
Lynch needs to be fit and firing.
Riewoldt needs to stop being a witches hat, find form or not play. He has played 2 good game all year. Other than that been a sooky spectator
Oh deary me stupidity really is a forte of yours.
If you ever stopped and asked yourself why JR is doing it tough then you would not have posted that dribble.
Italians play soccer id say you should stick to it going by that.
Never played soccer, hate that game and we are all very sorry we are not as intelligent as you. My apologies
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You're in the wrong part of the world if you hate soccer. :shh
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You're in the wrong part of the world if you hate soccer. :shh
Someone has to come here to show them what man's football is.. I already have 8 ppl here now into the tigers. The numbers will grow!!! They all think Aussie footballers are nuts. I tell them all, this is a real man's game. And for all the lefties who hate my language , bad luck . I'm entitled to have my thoughts as everyone else.
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Blockbusters galore: The games that will shape the eight
By Martin Smith
afl.com.au
12 July 2023
Here's a closer look at some of the most important games to look forward to in the run home.
Round 20
Richmond v Melbourne at the MCG
If we expect the Tigers to bank wins against the Eagles and Hawks in the next fortnight, their clash against the Demons on the Sunday afternoon of round 20 looms as season-defining. The Dees have a tricky fortnight coming up against the Lions and Crows, both at home, but a slip up there will have them desperate to right the ship against a Tigers side who should be in the eight at the start of the round.
Round 21
Western Bulldogs v Richmond at Marvel Stadium
A classic eight-point game that could determine the finals chances of both teams, the Tigers will have to 'travel' to their least favourite venue in the competition. The Bulldogs got the job done against the Tigers in round four by less than a kick and it should be another tight one against two teams that are evenly matched.
Round 22
St Kilda v Richmond at Marvel Stadium
Richmond's season may well be all but over by this point, with crucial games against the Demons and Bulldogs in the fortnight leading in. But a win in one or both of those means they will have plenty of momentum to face the Saints, who themselves have a relatively easy run against the Suns, Kangaroos, Hawks and Blues before this monster clash. Could be season defining.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/969068/blockbusters-galore-the-12-games-that-will-shape-the-eight
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Flat-track bullies and contenders: How every club has fared against the top sides
Josh Barnes
HeraldSun
July 12, 2023
(http://oneeyed-richmond.com/images/other/RecordAgainstTop8TeamR172023.png)
(http://oneeyed-richmond.com/images/other/RecordAgainstTop4TeamR172023.png)
https://www.codesports.com.au/afl/flattrack-bullies-and-contenders-how-every-club-has-fared-against-the-top-sides/news-story/1988a5c3b376a2cd04b25b937db6dd89
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From Barrett's 'Sliding Doors' column:
(https://resources.afl.com.au/photo-resources/2020/11/17/8a4c2df0-2497-41a0-85ac-8cab8feed48a/richmond.jpg?width=952)
IF ...
Tom Lynch is now officially out for the year ...
THEN ...
I'm not as buoyant as I had been about the Tigers' chances of a) making finals, and b) doing damage in finals.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/969161/if-the-cats-want-to-play-a-home-final-in-geelong-then
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From Barrett's 'Sliding Doors' column:
(https://resources.afl.com.au/photo-resources/2020/11/17/8a4c2df0-2497-41a0-85ac-8cab8feed48a/richmond.jpg?width=952)
IF ...
Tom Lynch is now officially out for the year ...
THEN ...
I'm not as buoyant as I had been about the Tigers' chances of a) making finals, and b) doing damage in finals.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/969161/if-the-cats-want-to-play-a-home-final-in-geelong-then
This serial flip flopper is the,worst.
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Not sure how no Lynch is going to affect our finals chances. He was unlikely to comeback before the last round or two even he was. We would've had to make the top 8 without him in any case.
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i take 0 notice of barrett, he's the big fence jumper there is.
win tm & we are only half a game out. top 4 aside it's very even for those last 4 september spots.
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Did the ladder predictor for the first time this season .
Must beat Hawks , Roos - non negotiable.
Must win two of remaining four . Saints and Dogs our best bet .
Think we can get in winning 12.5 games
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The Run Home: After Round 18
Martin Smith
afl.com.au
16 July 2023
11. Richmond
34 points (eight wins, eight losses, one draw), 99.8 per cent
The Tigers are lurking just two points outside the finals spots and with Hawthorn to come in round 19, they could find themselves in the eight by the end of next week. They also have the Roos on the run home, but blockbuster games against Melbourne and Port Adelaide (away) will be true tests as September approaches. Games against the Bulldogs and Saints will have a major say in the make-up of the final eight.
The run home
R19: Hawthorn @ MCG
R20: Melbourne @ MCG
R21: Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium
R22: St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium
R23: North Melbourne @ MCG
R24: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
https://www.afl.com.au/news/969186/the-run-home-crows-stumble-as-blues-giants-continue-to-surge
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Back even in the win/loss ledger for the first time since round 3 lol
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Play like we did yesterday and even north melbourne will beat us.
The Run Home: After Round 18
Martin Smith
afl.com.au
16 July 2023
11. Richmond
34 points (eight wins, eight losses, one draw), 99.8 per cent
The Tigers are lurking just two points outside the finals spots and with Hawthorn to come in round 19, they could find themselves in the eight by the end of next week. They also have the Roos on the run home, but blockbuster games against Melbourne and Port Adelaide (away) will be true tests as September approaches. Games against the Bulldogs and Saints will have a major say in the make-up of the final eight.
The run home
R19: Hawthorn @ MCG
R20: Melbourne @ MCG
R21: Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium
R22: St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium
R23: North Melbourne @ MCG
R24: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
https://www.afl.com.au/news/969186/the-run-home-crows-stumble-as-blues-giants-continue-to-surge
In being as unbiased as possible id say two definate wins two losses and two very hard 50/50 games at Marvel against two teams also playing for top 8.
Its interesting to do the run home of all 10 teams fighting for a spot in the 8.
CO, BR, PA, MEL, are going to likely finish top 4 and definately make the 8.
Geelong have a tough run home but are so hard to beat at home they should be okay.
The rest are all on a knifes edge.
Even the saints who people are writing off they play their next 5 at marvel where they are tough to beat.
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Ridiculous to think that if we'd kicked another point against Carlton and not brain-faded against the Bombers, we'd be sitting 5th.
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yep.
i also wonder if 4 more wins gets the job done? Not many teams have needed over 12 wins to make the 8 of recent years.
saints play some very easy teams before they play us, so no doubt they will be up and about by the time they face off against us.
Id also back us against most teams at the g first week of the finals. All in all we have no one to blame but ourselves. That essendon loss was shocking.
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Run Home: Every club’s last six games, predicting where your team will finish
Simeon Thomas-Wilson
HeraldSun
July 17, 2023
11. RICHMOND
Played: 17, Won: 8, Lost: 8, Drawn: 1, Points: 34, Percentage: 99.8
RUN HOME
R19: Hawthorn, MCG (W)
R20: Melbourne, MCG (L)
R21: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (L)
R22: St Kilda, Marvel (L)
R23: North Melbourne, MCG (W)
R24: Port Adelaide, AO (L)
Predicted finish: 12th (10-1-12)
As expected the Tigers got the job done against West Coast to keep themselves in the mix for finals. But they will need to beat at least two of Melbourne, the Western Bulldogs, St Kilda and Port Adelaide to be a chance of making the top eight. It is doable for the Tigers, but it doesn’t look all that likely right now.
FINAL PREDICTED LADDER
1. Collingwood (20-3)
2. Port Adelaide (19-4)
3. Brisbane (17-6)
4. Melbourne (17-6)
5. Geelong (13-1-9)
6. Western Bulldogs (13-10)
7. Essendon (13-10)
8. Carlton (12-1-10)
-----------------------------
9. St Kilda (12-11)
10. GWS (12-11)
11. Adelaide (11-12)
12. Richmond (10-1-12)
13. Fremantle (9-14)
14. Sydney (8-1-14)
15. Gold Coast (8-15)
16. Hawthorn (6-17)
17. North Melbourne (3-20)
18. West Coast (2-21)
https://www.codesports.com.au/afl/run-home-every-clubs-last-six-games-predicting-where-your-team-will-finish/news-story/ab427974f207c025b1b91d0831298d3f
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Obviously we have to beat Hawthorn and Norf. If we can't beat them we don't deserve finals anyway. I think the other two we can win are Melbourne and the Saints. Melbourne haven't really impressed me in the last month, with a 7min burst on Friday night saving them from a bad defeat. And the Saints look to be on the slide. We will struggle to beat the Dogs at Marvel. The other wildcard is Port Adelaide - will they have a home final sewn up by round 24 and maybe rest a few for that game? Stranger things have happened.
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Not a chance in hell.
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AFL Run Home after Rd 18: Spectacular Saturday breaks finals race wide open, with shock tip for eighth
Max Laughton
Fox Sports
July 17th, 2023
11. RICHMOND (8-8-1, 99.8%)
Remaining games
Round 19: Hawthorn at the MCG
Round 20: Melbourne at the MCG
Round 21: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium
Round 23: North Melbourne at the MCG
Round 24: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Remaining fixture difficulty: Sixth-easiest
St Kilda, the Bulldogs and Essendon losing were all good results for the Tigers. And Adelaide losing was OK, though it kinda just means they have to pass GWS instead. Carlton beating Port Adelaide did not help the Tigers though, as even winning four of their last six games may no longer be enough. (It may come down to percentage vs the Blues.) Either way that still has to be their aim, so while you’d assume Richmond knocks off Hawthorn and North Melbourne, and they’ll be solid favourites against this ailing version of St Kilda, they still have to get the job done against one of Melbourne or the Bulldogs. Even if they do win four of five, it may come down to the final round, where they’d need to either upset the Power away or hope results don’t fall a certain way. As we mentioned in the Carlton section above, the incredible tightness of the projected win totals between the Blues, Saints, Tigers and Giants show just how volatile this race is. We could easily be projecting Richmond into the eight this time next week. But either way, it’s going down to the wire.
Fox Footy’s projection: 11.7 wins, finishing 10th
----------------------
PROJECTED FINAL LADDER
1. Collingwood (18.55 projected wins)
2. Port Adelaide (17.45)
3. Brisbane Lions (15.6)
4. Melbourne (14.9)
5. Geelong (12.8 )
6. Western Bulldogs (12.75)
7. Essendon (12.45)
8. Carlton (11.9)
------------------------------------
9. St Kilda (11.85)
10. Richmond (11.7)
11. GWS Giants (11.65)
12. Adelaide Crows (11.2)
13. Gold Coast Suns (10.85)
14. Sydney Swans (10.3)
15. Fremantle (10.2)
16. Hawthorn (7.1)
17. North Melbourne (4.05)
18. West Coast Eagles (1.6)
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2023-the-run-home-after-round-18-predicted-ladder-top-eight-finals-ladder-predictor-analysis-fixture/news-story/ab2b00697060dc85de71c7c1fe34319b
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Not a chance in hell.
Especially how we played this weekend. Even norf can beat us
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Our forward line is our Achilles heel and killing our chances …Unless we can find someone “red hot “ late - like Townsend in 2017 we will be an also ran .
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Ridiculous to think that if we'd kicked another point against Carlton and not brain-faded against the Bombers, we'd be sitting 5th.
Its not exclusive to us though i reckon all teams would be talking about what ifs in some games.
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Power Rankings after Round 18
Max Laughton
Foxsports
18 July 2023
10. RICHMOND (8-8-1, 99.8%)
Last week’s ranking: 9
The Tigers primarily dropped a spot this week because of other teams rising, but they weren’t exactly as dominant over West Coast as most teams have been, either. That may matter with their percentage now almost certain to remain worse than Carlton, Geelong and Sydney, which could genuinely impact finals tiebreakers. (This is where the thumping loss to Brisbane hurts even more.) They’ve still got the opportunities to make the eight but the teams around them keep winning too, with the Giants and Blues both on streaks stretching over a month long. Though for what it’s worth if they keep winning relatively unimpressively, there’s no reason to believe the Tigers could do much damage even if they do squeak into September.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2023-power-rankings-after-round-18-highlights-every-club-ranked-analysis-ladder-predictions-contenders/news-story/24ea4d60fe3ab550acef677dd22dcb78
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The Bombers, Bulldogs, Saints and Power have just two games each left against teams in the eight.
In the chasing pack, Richmond (four), Greater Western Sydney (three), Carlton (three) and Adelaide (three) have tougher runs home, while Sydney (two) and Gold Coast (one) have an advantage.
Record v current top eight
Port Adelaide 8-1 (110.50%)
Collingwood 5-2 (115.34)
Geelong 4-2 (115.71)
Brisbane 4-3 (107.98)
Melbourne 4-4 (102.95)
Adelaide 3-5 (101.19)
Fremantle 3-5 (83.59)
Gold Coast 3-6 (77.24)
St Kilda 2-4 (101.62)
Richmond 2-6 (87.46)
Carlton 2-6 (86.24)
GWS Giants 2-5 (80.91)
Hawthorn 2-5 (67.47)
Sydney 1-1-6 (71.71)
Essendon 1-7 (79.22)
W.Bulldogs 1-6 (74.80)
North Melb. 0-8 (58.17)
West Coast 0-7 (55.33)
Games left v Games left
current top eight v rest
Geelong 5 1
Collingwood, Richmond, Hawthorn 4 2
Brisbane, Greater Western Sydney, Carlton,
Adelaide, Fremantle, North Melbourne 3 3
Port Adelaide, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs,
Essendon, Sydney, West Coast 2 4
Gold Coast 1 5
Melbourne 0 6
https://www.afl.com.au/news/982146/tightest-finals-race-in-decades-as-huge-tests-loom-for-cats
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AFL Form Ladder: Which teams are hot right now and which teams’ form has slipped
With finals on the horizon and a logjam for top eight spots, teams need to be hitting top form now. But the numbers aren’t good for some hopefuls.
Riley Alexander
HeraldSun
July 20, 2023
The Tigers, meanwhile, have been flawless barring an 81-point drubbing by Brisbane in the last month, with Andrew McQualter’s time in the hot seat seeing him net five wins from seven attempts.
Both the Giants and Tigers have won four games against bottom-10 sides throughout this period, bouncing back from trickier starts to the year and establishing themselves as genuine contenders for the remaining spots up for grabs.
FORM LADDER - PAST SIX GAMES
Club M W L D % QW T8 W-L B10 W-L
Collingwood 6 5 1 0 150.6 16 1-1 4-0
GWS Giants 6 5 1 0 130.6 15 1-0 4-1
Port Adelaide 6 5 1 0 119.5 13 3-0 2-1
Richmond 6 5 1 0 102.1 13 1-1 4-0
Geelong 6 4 1 1 133.7 14 3-1 1-1-0
Carlton 6 4 2 0 145.4 14 1-2 3-0
Brisbane 6 4 2 0 142.1 16 1-1 3-1
Melbourne 6 4 2 0 106.6 14 3-1 1-1
Gold Coast 6 3 3 0 90.0 13 1-2 2-1
Essendon 6 3 3 0 89.8 11 0-2 3-1
Sydney 6 2 3 1 130.3 12 1-1-2 1-1
Adelaide 6 2 4 0 125.6 13 0-2 2-2
Western Bulldogs 6 2 4 0 98.5 13 0-3 2-1
St Kilda 6 2 4 0 84.6 8 0-2 2-2
Hawthorn 6 2 4 0 78.3 10 1-1 1-3
Fremantle 6 1 5 0 68.0 7 1-2 0-3
North Melbourne 6 0 6 0 65.2 5 0-3 0-3
West Coast 6 0 6 0 39.5 2 0-3 0-3
Legend - M: Matches, W: Wins, L: Losses, D: Draws, QW: Quarters won, T8 W-L: Win/loss record against top 8 teams, B10 W-L: Win/loss record against bottom 10 teams
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Kane Cornes’ final top eight.
1 – Collingwood
2 – Port Adelaide
3 – Brisbane
4 – Melbourne
5 – Western Bulldogs
6 – Geelong
7 – Carlton
8 – Essendon
David King has the same.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/07/21/kane-cornes-makes-his-final-top-eight-prediction/
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Essendon choke going to cost us finals
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I had us needing to win five of the six games we've just played (Freo, StK, Bris, Syd, WCE, Haw). Which we've now done [by the skin of our teeth].
We'll now need to win at least three of our final five and that's if all the other games go as favoured. So that's Saints, Norf and one of the matches where we'll be underdogs - Melb, Dogs@Marvel or Port (away). Otherwise, we'll miss the top 8 by half a game :P.
Current R19 R20 R21 R22 R23 R24 Final
Pts Pts
Bulldogs 40 - GWS Rich Haw (A) WCE Geel (A) 56
Geelong 38 Bris (A) Freo Port Coll (G) StK (A) Dogs 54
Carlton 38 - Coll StK Melb GC (A) GWS 50
Essendon 36 - Syd WCE Norf GWS (A) Coll 48
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GWS 36 GC Dogs (A) Syd Port (A) Ess Carl (A) 48
Richmond 38 - Melb Dogs (A) StK (A) Norf Port (A) 46
Adelaide 32 Melb (A) Port GC Bris (A) Syd WCE (A) 44
St Kilda 36 Norf Haw Carl Rich Geel Bris (A) 44
Sydney 30 Freo (A) Ess (A) GWS GC Adel (A) Melb 38
Gold Coast 32 GWS (A) Bris Adel (A) Syd (A) Carl Norf (A) 36
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"I'd love to be a Tigers supporter because they don't feel they need to go down to be in [and contend again]."
- Matthew Lloyd on why he loves the Tigers' approach.
WATCH HERE: https://twitter.com/FootyonNine/status/1682912803248635904
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We 100% cannot challenge and would be belted silly by the top 4 IMO, but honestly we have done very well without our most important player in Lynch. Such a shame about his foot.
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The Run Home after Round 19:
Max Laughton
Foxsports
24 July 2023
10. RICHMOND (9-8-1, 99.9%)
Remaining games
Round 20: Melbourne at the MCG
Round 21: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium
Round 23: North Melbourne at the MCG
Round 24: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Remaining fixture difficulty: Eighth-easiest
We were sitting at the MCG writing this Richmond capsule in our heads - their season is over, they threw it away, etc etc - before a frantic comeback which keeps them well and truly in the mix. They’re still going to need a little bit of help, because their percentage is going to hurt them against the Cats and Blues. All they can do is keep winning, and if they win three of their last five - most likely one of the next two, and then against the Saints and Kangaroos - they’ve got a very good shot of playing finals. It’ll just come down to which other teams are able to win three of five as well; they probably need to finish ahead of two of the Giants, Saints and Blues. They can hand the Saints a loss themselves, and then the Blues play the Saints and Giants, so that’s a couple of guaranteed losses amongst that group.
Fox Footy’s projection: 12.1 wins, finishing 8th
---------------------------------------
PROJECTED FINAL LADDER
1. Collingwood (19.1 projected wins)
2. Port Adelaide (16.9)
3. Brisbane Lions (16.1)
4. Melbourne (15.25)
5. Western Bulldogs (13.15)
6. Geelong (12.45)
7. GWS Giants (12.2)
8. Richmond (12.1)
-------------------------------
9. Carlton (12)
10. Essendon (11.95)
11. St Kilda (11.8 )
12. Sydney Swans (10.9)
13. Adelaide Crows (10.85)
14. Gold Coast Suns (10.4)
15. Fremantle (9.65)
16. Hawthorn (6.8 )
17. North Melbourne (3.8 )
18. West Coast Eagles (1.55)
PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS
First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Collingwood vs Melbourne at the MCG
First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Western Bulldogs vs Richmond at the MCG
Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): Geelong vs GWS Giants at the MCG
Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Port Adelaide vs Brisbane Lions at Adelaide Oval
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2023-the-run-home-after-round-19-predicted-ladder-top-eight-finals-ladder-predictor-analysis-fixture/news-story/c24b502926fb69034caba3e423f8afb5
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The Run Home
Sarah Black
afl.com.au
24 July 2023
10. Richmond
38 points (nine wins, eight losses, one draw), 99.9 per cent
The Tigers kept their top-eight hopes alive with another close win, this time over Hawthorn after their final-minute victory over Sydney two weeks ago. They finish the round just outside the eight on percentage but a much sterner test awaits next week against Melbourne. The Tigers will have to beat at least one of the Western Bulldogs and St Kilda (and the Marvel Stadium hoodoo) to help fight their way through the log-jam ranging from fifth to 12th.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/982240/the-run-home-bombers-slide-giants-surge-lions-close-the-gap
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The Run Home
Sarah Black
afl.com.au
24 July 2023
10. Richmond
38 points (nine wins, eight losses, one draw), 99.9 per cent
The Tigers kept their top-eight hopes alive with another close win, this time over Hawthorn after their final-minute victory over Sydney two weeks ago. They finish the round just outside the eight on percentage but a much sterner test awaits next week against Melbourne. The Tigers will have to beat at least one of the Western Bulldogs and St Kilda (and the Marvel Stadium hoodoo) to help fight their way through the log-jam ranging from fifth to 12th.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/982240/the-run-home-bombers-slide-giants-surge-lions-close-the-gap
yeah right
where are the rest of the wins going to come from not including north and one of saints/dogs?
Thats 2 wins and 11.5 wins all up :shh
we need 4 wins from the remaining 5 because cats and blues have superior percentage
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Have a feeling we needed Port to beat the pies Saturday night
We really need Port to be in full rest mode the last game of the year
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Run home: The final five games for every club, final AFL ladder prediction
Josh Barnes
HeraldSun
July 24, 2023
10. RICHMOND
Won: 9, Lost: 8, Drawn: 1, Points: 38, Percentage: 99.9
Richmond's Run Home
R20: Melbourne, MCG (L)
R21: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (L)
R22: St Kilda, Marvel (W)
R23: North Melbourne, MCG (W)
R24: Port Adelaide, AO (L)
Predicted finish: 10th (11-11-1)
Liam Baker’s left-foot bender put Richmond past Hawthorn and into the eight for 24 hours over the weekend. At three-quarter time, Richmond’s finals chances were almost kaput but the stirring comeback gives Andrew McQualter’s men a serious sniff. A poor percentage means the Tigers must win more than the Blues to get past them, so will likely need to win four of the last five, which is a tough task.
Final Predicted Ladder
1. Collingwood (21-2)
2. Port Adelaide (18-5)
3. Brisbane Lions (17-6)*
4. Melbourne (17-6)*
5. Geelong (13-9-1)
6. Western Bulldogs (13-10)*
7. GWS Giants (13-10)*
8. Carlton (12-10-1)
---------------------------------
9. Essendon (12-11)
10. Richmond (11-11-1)
11. Adelaide (11-12)*
12. St Kilda (11-12)*
13. Sydney (9-13-1)
14. Gold Coast (9-14)
15. Fremantle (8-15)
16. Hawthorn (6-17)
17. North Melbourne (3-20)
18. West Coast (1-22)
*Percentage could change final position
https://www.codesports.com.au/afl/run-home-the-final-five-games-for-every-club-final-afl-ladder-prediction/news-story/55efd27ab8b96c8003d71d273681a170
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AFL Power Rankings after Round 19
Max Laughton
Foxsports
25 July 2023
11. RICHMOND (9-8-1, 99.9%)
Last week’s ranking: 10
To be fair, it shouldn’t have been that close. The Hawks kicked the lights out on Saturday, going at almost five goals above expectation, so what felt like a dominant performance from them for the first three and a half quarters was actually a pretty even game dictated by accuracy. Still, the Tigers had the tenacity to complete the comeback - which was a bit mean because we were there with our Hawks-loving mum, on her birthday no less! - and keep their season alive. They haven’t been overly convincing over the last month though, so if they do sneak into the eight, we’re not expecting them to do a whole lot of damage.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2023-power-rankings-after-round-19-highlights-every-club-ranked-analysis-ladder-predictions-finals-contenders/news-story/7be0c7b1dacb1dcca403a338e890005b
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Run home worst case scenario.
Melbourne - searching for top 4 spot loss
Dogs - looking to secure their spot. at marvel loss
Stkilda - same boat as us. at marvel loss
Roos - if still in the hunt a win.
P/A - at a/o Looks like they will be playing for a top 2 spot and home ground finals. loss.
People can say what they like but that scenario is on the cards its more realistic than us winning 3 of the last 5.
even if we find a way to get there there is not a hope in hell of winning it all.
In many ways Melbourne may do us a favour if they win. we may start to prioritise kids and a changing of the guard.
With such a dysfunctional fwd line, and the head not the heart says lets face it its actually almost bereft of actual fwds we just cannot win it.
I also think we are just one injury away from going from competetive in most games to easy beats.
Yep i can see the type of outraged posts with plenty of angst coming my way but at the end of the day i have thought all year in particular since lynch went down that it should be a redevelopment year with priority to kids.
I have not seen anything in the last 14 weeks to make me change my mind.
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Run home worst case scenario.
Not like you to be “glass half empty”
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Run home worst case scenario.
Melbourne - searching for top 4 spot loss
Dogs - looking to secure their spot. at marvel loss
Stkilda - same boat as us. at marvel loss
Roos - if still in the hunt a win.
P/A - at a/o Looks like they will be playing for a top 2 spot and home ground finals. loss.
People can say what they like but that scenario is on the cards its more realistic than us winning 3 of the last 5.
even if we find a way to get there there is not a hope in hell of winning it all.
In many ways Melbourne may do us a favour if they win. we may start to prioritise kids and a changing of the guard.
With such a dysfunctional fwd line, and the head not the heart says lets face it its actually almost bereft of actual fwds we just cannot win it.
I also think we are just one injury away from going from competetive in most games to easy beats.
Yep i can see the type of outraged posts with plenty of angst coming my way but at the end of the day i have thought all year in particular since lynch went down that it should be a redevelopment year with priority to kids.
I have not seen anything in the last 14 weeks to make me change my mind.
Tend to agree, we would just be shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic.
A loss to Melbourne will also compound the coaching dilemma, they will be trying for wins where we should be preparing for 2024.
Anyway beat Melbourne, Lynch and Gibcus miraculously return, something happens to make Bradtke, Cumberland and MRJ superstars, and we could be a chance…
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Essendon choke going to cost us finals
This
Said it at the time, devastating loss as essendum are rubbish
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Run home worst case scenario.
Not like you to be “glass half empty”
Our worst case scenario but his best... :shh
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We are getting games into some kids, i like this a lot, making Finals would be nice, while there's no expectation on us going far it'll give the kids Finals experience, much like our recent Premiership stars did in '13-15.
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I had Carlton making it anyway but tonight pretty much makes it easy for them. Dogs and Cats (thanks to Kitty Park) should make finals too. St Kilda's spot is what we and the rest are now chasing.
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From Foxsports:
Mid-round Run Home projections update...
5. GWS (12.8 wins)
6. CAR (12.75)
7. WB (12.55)
8. RIC (12.1* - 12.7 with win, 11.7 with loss)
9. ESS (11.95* - 12.45 with win, 11.45 with loss)
10. STK (11.8* - 12.25 with win, 11.25 with loss)
11. GEE (11.75)
* = to play
Bit happening.
https://twitter.com/maxlaughton/status/1685176079764623360
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Just reposting this running final ladder prediction with the updated results of tonight which don't change anything for us.
-------------------------
After the results so far this round, there's still a couple of ways we can make the finals (especially if Geelong keep losing) and we still need to upset one of Melb, Dogs or Port on top of beating the Saints & Norf. If we win tomorrow, we'll be in the Eight at the end of this round :pray. However, if we don't win tomorrow, the game next week against the Dogs will be massive and will pretty much determine whether we make it or not.
Anyway, my updated prediction ladder with results as currently favoured based on the current betting odds (not that has mattered this round with every game by one so far being an upset :-\ ).
Current R20 R21 R22 R23 R24 Final
Pts Pts
Carlton 42 - StK Melb GC (A) GWS 54
Bulldogs 40 - Rich Haw (A) WCE Geel (A) 52
GWS 44 - Syd Port (A) Ess Carl (A) 52
Geelong 38 - Port Coll (G) StK (A) Dogs 50
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Adelaide 36 - GC Bris (A) Syd WCE (A) 48
Richmond 38 Melb Dogs (A) StK (A) Norf Port (A) 46
St Kilda 40 Haw Carl Rich Geel Bris (A) 44
Essendon 36 - WCE Norf GWS (A) Coll 44
Sydney 38 - GWS GC Adel (A) Melb 42
Gold Coast 36 - Adel (A) Syd (A) Carl Norf (A) 40
Legend:
Win
Loss
-
Season on the line for us next week. Win (we'd go to 50 pts and Dogs down to 48 in the below prediction) and we're back to a good chance of making it. Lose and it is pretty much season over as 46 pts isn't enough.
Current R21 R22 R23 R24 Final
Pts Pts
Carlton 42 StK Melb GC (A) GWS 54
Bulldogs 40 Rich Haw (A) WCE Geel (A) 52
GWS 44 Syd Port (A) Ess Carl (A) 52
Geelong 38 Port Coll (G) StK (A) Dogs 50
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Adelaide 36 GC Bris (A) Syd WCE (A) 48
Richmond 38 Dogs (A) StK (A) Norf Port (A) 46
St Kilda 44 Carl Rich Geel Bris (A) 44
Essendon 36 WCE Norf GWS (A) Coll 44
Sydney 38 GWS GC Adel (A) Melb 42
Legend:
Win
Loss
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The Run Home after Round 20
Max Laughton
Fox Sports
31 July 2023
11. RICHMOND (9-9-1, 97.9%)
Remaining games:
Round 21: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium
Round 23: North Melbourne at the MCG
Round 24: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Remaining fixture difficulty: Sixth-easiest
It was a mighty fight against the Demons, and shows the Tigers aren’t yet a spent force, but it also puts them back on the outside of the finals race. There’s still a path for them to make the eight, but it almost certainly involves winning their next three, and in the process passing one or both of the Bulldogs and Saints. Especially since this round’s results have pretty much guaranteed Port Adelaide will be playing for ladder position in Round 24 - you wouldn’t want to be flying over there needing a win to make the eight. So it’s simple; Richmond has only won three games at Marvel Stadium since May 2019... and needs to win another two in the next fortnight to save its season.
Fox Footy’s projection: 11.7 wins, finishing 10th
-------------------------------------------------------------------
PROJECTED FINAL LADDER
1. Collingwood (18.5 projected wins)
2. Port Adelaide (16.3)
3. Brisbane Lions (15.5)
4. Melbourne (15.5)
5. GWS Giants (12.85)
6. Carlton (12.75)
7. Western Bulldogs (12.55)
8. St Kilda (12.25)
----------------------------------
9. Geelong (11.75)
10. Richmond (11.7)
11. Sydney Swans (11.55)
12. Adelaide Crows (11.45)
13. Essendon (11.4)
14. Gold Coast Suns (10.9)
15. Fremantle (10.35)
16. Hawthorn (6.35)
17. North Melbourne (3)
18. West Coast Eagles (2.3)
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2023-the-run-home-after-round-20-predicted-ladder-top-eight-finals-ladder-predictor-analysis-fixture/news-story/a4f958d9631612b6b781c22fb1ed4b65
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The Run Home
Martin Smith
afl.com.au
31 July 2023
11. Richmond
38 points (nine wins, nine losses, one draw), 97.9 per cent
A painful loss for the Tigers on Sunday sets up a classic eight-point game against the Bulldogs on Friday night, with another to come against St Kilda a week later. A trip to Adelaide to face the Power in the final round of the season is a daunting one, meaning the Tigers will be desperate to bank some more wins before then.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/987164/the-run-home-giants-surge-bombers-fall-as-race-for-top-two-heats-up
-----------------------------------------
Run Home: Every game and final ladder prediction
Josh Barnes
HeraldSun
31 July 2023
11. RICHMOND
Richmond's Run Home
R21: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (L)
R22: St Kilda, Marvel (W)
R23: North Melbourne, MCG (W)
R24: Port Adelaide, AO (L)
Predicted finish: 10th (11-11-1)
Leading late on Sunday against Melbourne, a win would have put Richmond in the box seat to make the finals. Now the Tigers probably need to win twice at Marvel Stadium and don’t ask Damien Hardwick how much they like playing there. It’s a tough run but they can still get there.
Final Predicted Ladder
1. Collingwood (20-3)
2. Melbourne (17-6)*
3. Port Adelaide (17-6)*
4. Brisbane Lions (16-7)
5. Carlton (13-9-1)
6. Western Bulldogs (13-10)*
7. GWS Giants (13-10)*
8. Geelong (12-10-1)
-------------------------------
9. Adelaide (12-11)
10. Richmond (11-11-1)
11. St Kilda (11-12)*
12. Essendon (11-12)*
13. Sydney (10-12-1)
14. Gold Coast (10-13)
15. Fremantle (9-14)
16. Hawthorn (6-17)
17. North Melbourne (2-21)*
18. West Coast (2-21)*
*Percentage will decide final spots
https://www.codesports.com.au/afl/afl-2023-run-home-every-game-and-final-ladder-prediction/news-story/d11adf270d3202d47de0eac7612ed8d7
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We are in no man’s land.
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Have a feeling the crows will be the ones to scrape in. Three very winnable games and the way they have been playing it will only take an upset against the bears who they beat last time around.Bit different at the gabba though.
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Geelong play port,Collingwood , st kilda and the dogs, not sure their going to make it
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AFL Power Ranking after Round 20
Max Laughton
Foxsports
1 August 2023
10. RICHMOND (9-9-1, 97.9%)
Last week’s ranking: 11
It was always going to be the Tigers’ defence that was going to cost them games - from the enormous score leaked against Brisbane which ruined their percentage, to allowing another 20 majors against Melbourne on Sunday, they’ve allowed 15-plus goals to be kicked six times. And unsurprisingly they’ve only won two of those games, both by just a kick. Of course it swings the other way too; their attack has looked very promising and been pretty consistent too, even without Tom Lynch (whose presence is clearly missed, forcing Jack Riewoldt into a much heavier role than he or the coaching staff would want). They move up a spot in the rankings partially because of their own solid performance against the Dees, which only blew out late, and because of the Bombers’ latest loss. Friday night is must-win.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2023-power-rankings-after-round-20-highlights-every-club-ranked-analysis-ladder-predictions-finals-contenders/news-story/f7e5a4d9d5eabc08e5afcf4480df5cdc
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Top eight, double chance, who misses? We predict the ladder
AFL website staff writers
1 August 2023
Richmond also proved divisive, with Edwards, Gabelich and Bastiani again going against the grain by tipping the Tigers to finish seventh. The six others see them missing the eight altogether and even finishing as low as 13th.
AFL.com.au's predicted final ladder*
1. Collingwood
2. Port Adelaide
3. Melbourne
4. Brisbane
5. Carlton
6. Greater Western Sydney
7. Western Bulldogs
8. Geelong
9. Adelaide
10. Richmond
11. St Kilda
12. Sydney
13. Essendon
14. Gold Coast
15. Fremantle
16. Hawthorn
17. North Melbourne
18. West Coast
*Our nine reporters completed our ladder predictor and picked their expected top eight. Their responses were then tallied and averaged out to get a combined predicted ladder.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/992455/top-eight-double-chance-who-misses-we-predict-the-ladder
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It’s the closest race for AFL finals this century. Here’s what every contender needs to make it
Max Laughton
Fox Sports
August 2nd, 2023
11. RICHMOND (9-9-1, 97.9%)
Remaining fixture difficulty: Sixth-easiest
How many wins to play finals? At least 3
It probably comes down to this Friday night for the Tigers - in fact, if our predictions are correct except for a Richmond win over the Bulldogs, they’d sneak into eighth. Their percentage is a real obstacle too with Carlton, Geelong and Sydney all winning that tiebreaker, so Tigers fans should be hoping those sides in particular have some struggles. Much like their opponent this Friday night, they wouldn’t want to go into Round 24 needing a win to save their season - but that feels like the most likely scenario. But the true worst-case option would be losing their next two, which is entirely possible, and would effectively eliminate them (though not mathematically).
Verdict? 2-2, finish 11th
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-finals-2023-finals-race-analysed-contenders-for-top-eight-verdict-ladder-predictor-wins-and-losses-what-they-need-news/news-story/9a7201cfc2d9f6af26ca011b6e97245c
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Barrett reckons we'll beat the Dogs but lose to the Saints based on what he says here:
https://twitter.com/FootyonNine/status/1686704175252373506
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Likely finishing places for us:
3 more wins = 8th
2 more wins = 11th
1 more win = 13th
0 more wins = 15th
Gone for two as St Kilda and Norf are rubbish, but dish up more 'efforts' like Friday night and the latter isn't out of the equation :P.
Current R22 R23 R24 Final
Pts Pts
Carlton 46 Melb GC (A) GWS 54
Bulldogs 44 Haw (A) WCE Geel (A) 52
Geelong 42 Coll (G) StK (A) Dogs 50
Adelaide 40 Bris (A) Syd WCE (A) 48
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GWS 44 Port (A) Ess Carl (A) 48
Sydney 42 GC Adel (A) Melb 46
Richmond 38 StK (A) Norf Port (A) 46
St Kilda 44 Rich Geel Bris (A) 44
Essendon 36 Norf GWS (A) Coll 44
Legend:
Win
Loss
-
So Pick 7.
I feel like this year has been such a black cloud mainly around the decision to trade our first pick. Pick 7 would be lovely to help rebuild but it is what it is. GWS may struggle to fit players in their cap again so who knows.
-
AFL Run Home after Round 21
Max Laughton
Fox Sports
August 7th, 2023
13. RICHMOND (9-10-1, 94.8%)
Remaining games
Round 22: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium
Round 23: North Melbourne at the MCG
Round 24: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Remaining fixture difficulty: Third-easiest
The Tigers are pretty much done, needing to win all three of their remaining games to have any realistic shot of making the eight. That’s already unlikely. But even with 12 and a half wins, with their percentage, they’re in trouble. The teams they need to pass - the others with a draw, like Geelong and Sydney - actually won on the weekend, effectively building a two-game lead. In a realistic best-case scenario, Richmond goes into Round 24 needing to beat Port Adelaide away with other results going their way to make the eight. And even getting to that point won’t be easy.
Fox Footy’s projection: 11.25 wins, finishing 13th
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2023-the-run-home-after-round-21-predicted-ladder-top-eight-finals-ladder-predictor-analysis-fixture/news-story/2ac42086531cbb6e0a79d8c9196f78ba
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Love your optimism MT but our season is done
Even with 3 wins we are so reliant on other results. Throw in our % and we are cooked.
3 games have cost us finals and they are not games that are after Dimma left
It is a wasted season
-
13. RICHMOND
Won: 9, Lost: 10, Drawn: 1, Point: 38, Percentage: 94.8
You can scratch Richmond off the list of finals contenders now. Even if the Tigers win out from here, 12-and-a-half wins likely won’t be enough with that below-par percentage. A potential MCG farewell for Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt looms in round 23.
https://www.codesports.com.au/afl/afl-run-home-finals-spots-set-to-be-decided-in-round-24/news-story/a24f337f994f3b9fa4058b3495684c55
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Likely finishing places for us:
3 more wins = 8th
2 more wins = 11th
1 more win = 13th
0 more wins = 15th
Gone for two as St Kilda and Norf are rubbish, but dish up more 'efforts' like Friday night and the latter isn't out of the equation :P.
Current R22 R23 R24 Final
Pts Pts
Carlton 46 Melb GC (A) GWS 54
Bulldogs 44 Haw (A) WCE Geel (A) 52
Geelong 42 Coll (G) StK (A) Dogs 50
Adelaide 40 Bris (A) Syd WCE (A) 48
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GWS 44 Port (A) Ess Carl (A) 48
Sydney 42 GC Adel (A) Melb 46
Richmond 38 StK (A) Norf Port (A) 46
St Kilda 44 Rich Geel Bris (A) 44
Essendon 36 Norf GWS (A) Coll 44
Legend:
Win
Loss
Agree, "IF" ... "IF" we win next 3 we could still sneak in.
After Friday night's effort, chances are 0%
Win next 3 and we could sneak in.
We have no picks in the draft so at least play out the last 3 matches like a final.
2023 season isn't officially over yet.
-
Love your optimism MT but our season is done
Even with 3 wins we are so reliant on other results. Throw in our % and we are cooked.
3 games have cost us finals and they are not games that are after Dimma left
It is a wasted season
Had 2 wasted years since 2020
Times are for the changin I say.
-
The AFL website has us finishing 12th.
AFL.com.au's predicted final ladder*
1. Collingwood
2. Melbourne
3. Port Adelaide
4. Brisbane
5. Carlton
6. Geelong
7. Western Bulldogs
8. Adelaide
-----------------------------------
9. Greater Western Sydney
10. Sydney
11. St Kilda
12. Richmond
13. Essendon
14. Gold Coast
15. Fremantle
16. Hawthorn
17. North Melbourne
18. West Coast
* Our eight reporters completed our ladder predictor and picked their expected top eight. Their responses were then tallied and averaged out to get a combined predicted ladder
https://www.afl.com.au/news/997466/top-eight-double-chance-who-misses-we-predict-the-ladder
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AFL Power Rankings after Round 21
Max Laughton
Foxsports
8 August 2023
11. RICHMOND (9-10-1, 94.8%)
Last week’s ranking: 10
A bad run of injuries heading into and during Friday night’s game limited the Tigers’ chances of a season-saving win, and in the end their midfield was belted off the park. In previous seasons they didn’t need to win that area to be successful; this year, they do, and Dion Prestia and Tim Taranto couldn’t carry the team by themselves. The AFL clearly has a bit of faith in Richmond yet, giving them a Sunday game in Round 24 - and if they beat the Saints and Kangaroos over the next fortnight, they should still be playing for a spot in September. But from here, pretty much everything has to go right, and it’s very rare teams in that scenario actually get everything they want.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2023-power-rankings-after-round-21-highlights-every-club-ranked-analysis-ladder-predictions-finals-contenders/news-story/1584fae111de58f54ada2600aebf4297
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Tigers’ burning question: Do Richmond deserve to play finals?
When Damien Hardwick walked away in May citing exhaustion, it appeared Richmond’s hopes of playing finals went with him. But the Tigers have rallied under interim coach Andrew McQualter and produced some great footy to have them half a win outside the top eight heading into last round. But against the Bulldogs, the Tigers didn’t fire a shot in the opening term, with the match essentially over at quarter time. Tigers star Jack Riewoldt conceded the loss – which now sees the six points and percentage adrift of the top eight – was “really, really disappointing“. “To have the outs that we had, you really want the team to step up,” he said on AFL 360. “Our own destiny isn’t in our own hands now. You still strive to play finals, but more importantly we strive to get back to the form we had five quarters ago.” But after the “soul-sapping” loss, do the Tigers deserve a shot?
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2023-the-blowtorch-round-22-preview-every-clubs-burning-question-fox-footy-commentators-tv-broadcast-guide-fixture-latest-news/news-story/fd14820d114748fc455f5ff0e9a31b0f
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i even think with 3 wins we still wont make it.
i wonder how many years you need 13 plus wins to make the 8. i wouldnt thought many.
-
i even think with 3 wins we still wont make it.
i wonder how many years you need 13 plus wins to make the 8. i wouldnt thought many.
Agree Frankie (does happen occasionally ;D) 3 wins won't get us in
We are relying on other results going our way, like the Cats last night.
So based on that I don't think we deserve it. We blew it early in the year, while Dimma was still coach
A wasted season :banghead
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The lack of development of the younger players is what makes it a wasted year. Gibcus very unlucky with injury but barely played Sonsie. Brown Banks, Sonsie and Ryan should be playing for remainder of season
ⁿ
-
i even think with 3 wins we still wont make it.
i wonder how many years you need 13 plus wins to make the 8. i wouldnt thought many.
Remember there was an extra round this year.
-
With the Swans probably beating Suns it makes it near impossible.
-
With the Swans probably beating Suns it makes it near impossible.
Not necessarily they have Adel in Adelaide and the then Melbourne up there. They need to win probably both
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i even think with 3 wins we still wont make it.
i wonder how many years you need 13 plus wins to make the 8. i wouldnt thought many.
Remember there was an extra round this year.
That's right. Completely forgot. :thumbsup
We have next to no chance then.
-
If Dogs beat Hawks tm & Saints beat us we are mathematically out of the running.
-
Reality is we don't deserve to make finals
-
Reality is we don't deserve to make finals
End of the day win all 3 or not we don't deserve it
It is a wasted season
-
13. RICHMOND (9-11-1, 93.1%)
To play: North Melbourne at the MCG, Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
‘Easiest’ path to top eight: Win twice by big margins AND Sydney loses twice by big margins AND the Western Bulldogs lose twice AND GWS vs Essendon is a draw AND Adelaide, GWS and Essendon lose in Round 24
Best case: Finish 8th (see above scenario, and there may be others just as complex)
Worst case: Miss finals by losing once, or any of the above requirements don’t happen
Analysis: Look, they’re done. The absolute minimum to make the eight now is 11 and a half wins - the Tigers can get there, but have a terrible percentage, and so would need enormous margins in their favour in both their games and other teams’ games. They also would need a GWS-Essendon draw (because otherwise one of them reaches 12 wins and locks them out).
Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 1-1, finish 13th at 10-12-1
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2023-the-run-home-after-round-22-predicted-ladder-top-eight-finals-ladder-predictor-analysis-fixture-scenarios/news-story/8a7ddb596274e9b4f8c0f3d8288133f6
(https://media.tenor.com/VKU7xwwZJ_EAAAAM/dumb-and-dumber-lloyd.gif)
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Power Rankings after Round 22
Max Laughton
Foxsports
15 August 2023
15. RICHMOND (9-11-1, 93.1%)
Last week’s ranking: 11
So Damien Hardwick was right. Part of the reason he left the Tigers was the realisation they almost certainly weren’t going to contend this season, as he’d hoped - and that was probably obvious a little while ago - but now they’re out of the finals mix entirely. It’s easy to say it was always going to be hard once Tom Lynch went down, and they were relying on a near-the-end Jack Riewoldt to take the No.1 forward every week. And he’s done an admirable job given the circumstances. But we won’t let that be the excuse. Something changed over the last two weeks, where they lost to the Bulldogs and Saints by a combined 91 points; two games that seemed (and should’ve been) entirely winnable. Or at least should’ve been close. Did they all just get tired at the same time? Maybe. But it’s been a pretty depressing end to a season that otherwise saw them competitive almost every week - just like last year.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2023-power-rankings-after-round-22-highlights-every-club-ranked-analysis-ladder-predictions-finals-contenders/news-story/75bb9f34d53d032134368b6658907444