From Foxsports ...... clearly the more recent years impacted by expansion are most relevant here, and as we saw in the early 2010s, the league would prefer to keep the period between a 19th and 20th club being admitted as short as reasonably possible.
After all, going from 19 to 20 ensures a lucrative 10th game each weekend can be played, and means there are no awkward one-team-byes.
So when McLachlan says “at some point there will be an even amount of teams”, he could mean as soon as 2029 or 2030. It’s likely to depend on where the 20th team is placed.
... let’s run through the candidates to land the 20th AFL license in detail to see who’s most likely, and who just doesn’t make sense.
NORTHERN TERRITORYPopulation (September 2022): 250,600 (up 0.4% on previous year)
Applicable Roy Morgan survey numbers (2018): 259,000 footy supporters across Tasmania and NT
Participation numbers (AFL NT/AFL Annual Report 2022): Over 39,000 players, 180 clubs in 13 leagues
For all of the talk about finally creating a national competition with the introduction of Tasmania, this is the lone void left on the map.
A Northern Territory team, perhaps splitting games between Darwin and Alice Springs, would be the spiritual favourite for almost every footy fan - and in an ideal world it’d easily be the call, giving greater representation to Indigenous Australia.
But we don’t live in an ideal world, and unfortunately the NT option is very flawed.
If the Tassie market was small, this one is minute. Darwin has roughly half the population of Geelong, with another 25,000-odd in Alice Springs. Not only does this mean there’s a lack of people to build a membership base, but sponsorship deals will be less lucrative.
Realistically an NT team would need heavy governmental support - the AFL could optimistically argue it needs federal funding because the team would be a social good for the region - in a way that not even Tasmania has, especially if the league again declares a new stadium is necessary.
An AFLNT report in 2021 found the team would run at a yearly loss of $15 million on an average operating cost of $45 million.
Then there’s the weather. In the depths of winter, Darwin averages 31 degrees with 36 per cent humidity - so day games will always be a difficult prospect. Alice Springs would likely need to be used for early-season matches given that period overlaps with the end of the Darwin rainy season.
Last May a proposal was put forward for a new $300 million, roofed 25,000-seat stadium in Darwin - though given the Tassie ground will cost over twice that, that would appear an optimistic projection.
WESTERN AUSTRALIA (Third team)Population (September 2022): 2,805,000 (up 1.8% on previous year)
Applicable Roy Morgan survey numbers (2018): 1.004 million footy supporters, 13.5 per cent of which are AFL club members
Participation numbers (WAFC site/AFL Annual Report 2022): Almost 350,000 participants, 547 clubs in 57 leagues
Existing members (2022): 102,897 (West Coast), 56,105 (Fremantle)
SOUTH AUSTRALIA (Third team)
Population (September 2022): 1,828,700 (up 1.4% on previous year)
Applicable Roy Morgan survey numbers (2018): 792,000 footy supporters, 15 per cent of which are AFL club members
Participation numbers (AFL Annual Report 2022): 277 clubs in 33 leagues
Existing members (2022): 63,009 (Adelaide), 58,643 (Port Adelaide)
We’ve joined these two cases together because they’re essentially the same argument, but one is much stronger.
Adding a third club to a two-team market has its flaws, of course - would there really be enough fans to pick the new boys over the existing groups? But that’s where the specific location of the team will come into play.
For WA, the suggestion is Joondalup (north of Perth) or Mandurah (south) would be the best option, keeping the team central and able to play home games at Optus Stadium but still representative of a specific area.
In SA, the strong local connections with SANFL sides could see one of those clubs elevated to the national competition - Norwood was rumoured to be interested earlier this year.
CANBERRAPopulation (ACT, September 2022): 459,000 (up 1.4% on previous year)
Applicable Roy Morgan survey numbers (2018): 1.66 million footy supporters across New South Wales and ACT, 5.2 per cent of which are AFL club members
Participation numbers (AFL Annual Report 2022): 264 clubs in 23 leagues (NSW/ACT)
Existing members (2022): Over 6,400 (GWS Giants)
The dark horse option of the group has some good numbers behind it but also one big, big, orange problem.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2023-expansion-to-20-teams-candidates-for-20th-club-location-third-team-in-perth-or-adelaide-northern-territory-canberra-analysis-news/news-story/551a57371bc2c35933efbdee3f8aea21
