One-Eyed Richmond Forum
Football => Richmond Rant => Topic started by: Rampstar on March 01, 2013, 06:02:30 PM
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As a new season draws near and the excitement level increases markedly I thought I would take an even handed look at our prospects of winning a tin mug over the next 10 years. IMHO I believe that our chance are limited PROBABLY less than 10%. The reality is that GWS and Gold Coast have too much talent for us. Whilst they continued to pick up great junior talent we have resorted to getting in depth or squad players. We wont be able to compete with them over the medium term. Unfortunately we dont have enough talent now to make it count for now and when we are expecting for our window to be open, I expect that this window will be shut down pretty quick by these clubs and the AFL who will want them to make hay whilst the sun shines. I also expect rule changes to free agency which will make it impossible for the big Melbourne clubs to get the players out of those clubs.
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As a new season draws near and the excitement level increases markedly I thought I would take an even handed look at our prospects of winning a tin mug over the next 10 years. IMHO I believe that our chance are limited PROBABLY less than 10%. The reality is that GWS and Gold Coast have too much talent for us. Whilst they continued to pick up great junior talent we have resorted to getting in depth or squad players. We wont be able to compete with them over the medium term. Unfortunately we dont have enough talent now to make it count for now and when we are expecting for our window to be open, I expect that this window will be shut down pretty quick by these clubs and the AFL who will want them to make hay whilst the sun shines. I also expect rule changes to free agency which will make it impossible for the big Melbourne clubs to get the players out of those clubs.
Is that you Lordo??
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There's a 10% chance that Rampsy might show a bit of optimism in the next 10 years. Rampage, you'll be on here the day after a grand final win calling for blokes heads ;D
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So adding to that Ramps, I'll rate the chances (as a percentage) of every club in the league over the same 10 year period:
Adelaide - 9
List is solid and young enough to have a wide window at present, current coaching regime is solid but new and unproven, administration is strong but can be prone to an occasional mistake, membership is always healthy.
Brisbane - 3
List still needs a fair bit of work, current coaching regime not up to it, administration is ok but not rock solid, membership is flaky.
Carlton - 9
List is solid and young enough to have a wide window at present, current coaching regime is new but proven, administration is solid but can be prone to an occasional mistake, membership is always healthy without being large.
Collingwood - 9
List is solid and young enough to have a wide window at present, current coaching regime is not proven but stable, administration is very strong and solid, membership is always extremely large.
Essendon - 5
List is young enough but still has holes and needs some work, current coaching regime is new and unproven in the current format but does have some experience, administration is on shaky ground at present, membership is always very healthy.
Fremantle - 7
List is balanced but still has holes and is slightly exposed for age in a couple of areas, current coaching regime is new but proven, administration is solid but has no experience in building/running a premiership football club, membership is usually very healthy.
Geelong - 5
List is aging with a closing window and will need significant rebuilding in the next few years, current coaching regime is fairly new but solid and proven, administration is very strong and solid, membership is always healthy.
Gold Coast - 1
List is very young with many holes and still a few years off a realistic window, current coaching regime is fairly new and unproven, administration is new and has no experience in building/running a premiership football club, membership is very small.
GWS - 2
List is very young with many holes and still a few years off a realistic window, current coaching regime is new but has some elements of proven success, administration is new and has no experience in building/running a premiership football club, membership is very small.
Hawthorn - 7
List is on the verge of aging with a closing window and not enough good young replacement players apparent, current coaching regime is solid and proven, administration is very strong and solid, membership is always extremely large.
Melbourne - 4
List is young with promise but has a lot of holes and well short of a window opening, current coaching regime is new and unproven, administration is inconsistent and mistake-prone, membership is always average.
North Melb - 5
List is young enough but still has holes and needs some work, current coaching regime is solid but unproven, administration is solid, membership is always small.
Port Adel - 4
List is average but has many holes and is a long way from an open window, current coaching regime is new and unproven, administration is shaky, membership is unreliable but usually small.
Richmond - 7
List is solid and young enough to have a wide window at present, current coaching regime is stable but unproven, administration is solid but has no experience in building/running a premiership football club, membership is always very large.
St Kilda - 3
List is aging with a closing window and will need significant rebuilding in the next few years, current coaching regime is new and unproven, administration is strong and solid, membership is always average.
Sydney - 9
List is balanced and historically window remains constantly open, current coaching regime is rock solid and proven, administration is strong and solid, membership is usually average.
West Coast - 9
List is solid and young enough to have a wide window at present, current coaching regime is experienced and proven, administration is strong and solid, membership is always very large.
West Bull - 2
List is average with many holes and a long way from an open window, current coaching regime is new and unproven, administration is solid but can be prone to infighting, membership is always small.
=100%
So I fully agree with Ramps but using 100% as a base I couldn't rate any club a 10% chance of winning a flag in the next 10 years.
Thoughts?
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You're all so persuasive, i just don't know what to think now
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GWS have bucket loads of jnr talent.
I'll just about walk away from the game if they win a couple of flags before us in the next ten years.
Go follow the local footy club.
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I'm going with Ramps, particularly given the time of year.
We haven't been able to compete for 30 years without GWS and GC, how on earth could we hope to compete now they are in the c ompetition :huh
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Can see it now. The next time we get in a GF will be against one of these new sides. Everyone will be barracking for them, thinking it would be nice and a feel good story for an expansion club to win their first. We then lose and become laughing stock again because of it.
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Using Smokes Outline Ill go With:
Adelaide - 5
Solid list but some substantial holes.
Brisbane - 3
No chance
Carlton - 6
Need to win in the next 2 years or its going to be a long wait for the bluebaggers.
Collingwood - 9
List is solid and young enough to have a wide window at present, current coaching regime is not proven but stable, administration is very strong and solid, membership is always extremely large.
Essendon - 4
bulldust club, fletcher cant play forever, watson is almost 30, too many average players.
Fremantle - 8
With Ross Lyon running the show they are a big chance but Sandilands and Pavlich are almost at Retirement age. Need to win in the next two years or they have to start again.
Geelong - 4
They have been great but they are gone IMHO. Limited chance to win another one over the next decade.
Gold Coast 12 - Enough high class young players to be their abouts in the next 3 or 4 years. Big chance and the AFL will help them.
GWS 15 and the outright favorite to win multiple flags. The AFL will change the free agency rules to make sure they dont lose any big players.
Hawthorn - 7
Its 2013 or at the most 2014 or a long wait for the Dawks.
Melbourne - 0
Crap club. No chance.
North Melb - 0
Crap club. No chance.
Port Adel - 0
Crap club. No chance.
Richmond - 7
Has some exceptional players like the Cotch but may struggle to compete for class against the likes of GWS and GCS down the track.
St Kilda - 0
History says they dont know how and history always repeats. No chance for this mob.
Sydney - 10
Great club with Salary Cap advantage. Can do it again.
West Coast - 10
Power club of the competition. Money, Supporters etc etc. They can do it.
West Bull - 0
No Chance. They are rebuilding again.
=100%
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Is it a 10% chance every year? If so 10% x 10 years = 100% chance it will happen. :gotigers :clapping
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Glad you weren't marking my school exams Ramps! ;D
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Glad you weren't marking my school exams Ramps! ;D
Did you ever have a big red line going through your work and have to do it again ;D Coz I did :banghead Idiot teachers in this country and they want pay rises. Give em nuffin!
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peurile debate really, tis arguable that anyones got better than a 10% of winning a flag over whatever outlook. In fact a math guru would tell us a more precise figure rather than one straight from the clacker with a balloon attached :lol
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peurile debate really, tis arguable that anyones got better than a 10% of winning a flag over whatever outlook. In fact a math guru would tell us a more precise figure rather than one straight from the clacker with a balloon attached :lol
look whose talking :lol
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(http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRJKuWHCh_TAnjrQJ76jx80tswFFojzKu6nsAzWSmCPT6TYoYEXFQ)
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As a new season draws near and the excitement level increases markedly I thought I would take an even handed look at our prospects of winning a tin mug over the next 10 years. IMHO I believe that our chance are limited PROBABLY less than 10%. The reality is that GWS and Gold Coast have too much talent for us. Whilst they continued to pick up great junior talent we have resorted to getting in depth or squad players. We wont be able to compete with them over the medium term. Unfortunately we dont have enough talent now to make it count for now and when we are expecting for our window to be open, I expect that this window will be shut down pretty quick by these clubs and the AFL who will want them to make hay whilst the sun shines. I also expect rule changes to free agency which will make it impossible for the big Melbourne clubs to get the players out of those clubs.
The negativity is strong in this one Master.
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pfft ill happily take sustained finals football for several years before even thinking about a premiership
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10% chance of me enjoying a weekend without constant nagging from the ball and chain .
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:lol
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10% chance of me enjoying a weekend without constant nagging from the ball and chain .
:lol :clapping :clapping
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10% chance of me enjoying a weekend without constant nagging from the ball and chain .
We have an early winner for post of the year
Bloody ripper so true
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10% chance of me enjoying a weekend without constant nagging from the ball and chain .
We have an early winner for post of the year
Bloody ripper so true
X 2
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(http://i1075.photobucket.com/albums/w434/macopowa/7059A3F0-7687-4F18-BD66-B6CA11745AED-6701-0000048FD6C0976C.jpg)
"omg i told you we would lose i am a Nostradamus"
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Adelaide - 4
Gone backwards since last update.
Brisbane - 4
Improving list new coach will set the direction
Carlton - 4
1st year of 2 year window gone and Malthouse seems to want to start again. Limited chance.
Collingwood - 7
List is solid and young enough to have a wide window at present, current coaching regime is not proven but stable, administration is very strong and solid, membership is always extremely large.
Essendon - 5
2 year window open now otherwise it will be over for at least a decade at Tullamarine.
Fremantle - 10
Big Show in 2013.
Geelong - 8
Once again they are there abouts. Wouldnt surprise to see them do it again in2013 or 2014.
Gold Coast 10 - Enough high class young players to be their abouts in the next 3 or 4 years. Big chance and the AFL will help them.
GWS 3 - major disappointments from the last update. This club looks like a rabble off the field, no supporters and kids playing their will want to leave IMHO. Also some of their kids havent developed.
Hawthorn - 8
Its 2013 or at the most 2014 or a long wait for the Dawks.
Melbourne - 2
Crap club but they have Roos who may put them on the right track.
North Melb - 5
Crap club but they are improving and they have a decent squad to build on.
Port Adel - 6
Revelation in 2013 and Hinkley can coach
Richmond - 6
Decent set of players to build on but Tigers need to find more leaders and winners in terms of players.
St Kilda - 0
History says they dont know how and history always repeats. No chance for this mob.
Sydney - 10
Great club with Salary Cap advantage. Can do it again.
West Coast - 5
Power club of the competition. Money, Supporters but theyve gone backwards and it could be a long way back
West Bull - 3
They are rebuilding again and they have a very good coach in Brendon McCartney.
=100%
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