So adding to that Ramps, I'll rate the chances (as a percentage) of every club in the league over the same 10 year period:
Adelaide - 9
List is solid and young enough to have a wide window at present, current coaching regime is solid but new and unproven, administration is strong but can be prone to an occasional mistake, membership is always healthy.
Brisbane - 3
List still needs a fair bit of work, current coaching regime not up to it, administration is ok but not rock solid, membership is flaky.
Carlton - 9
List is solid and young enough to have a wide window at present, current coaching regime is new but proven, administration is solid but can be prone to an occasional mistake, membership is always healthy without being large.
Collingwood - 9
List is solid and young enough to have a wide window at present, current coaching regime is not proven but stable, administration is very strong and solid, membership is always extremely large.
Essendon - 5
List is young enough but still has holes and needs some work, current coaching regime is new and unproven in the current format but does have some experience, administration is on shaky ground at present, membership is always very healthy.
Fremantle - 7
List is balanced but still has holes and is slightly exposed for age in a couple of areas, current coaching regime is new but proven, administration is solid but has no experience in building/running a premiership football club, membership is usually very healthy.
Geelong - 5
List is aging with a closing window and will need significant rebuilding in the next few years, current coaching regime is fairly new but solid and proven, administration is very strong and solid, membership is always healthy.
Gold Coast - 1
List is very young with many holes and still a few years off a realistic window, current coaching regime is fairly new and unproven, administration is new and has no experience in building/running a premiership football club, membership is very small.
GWS - 2
List is very young with many holes and still a few years off a realistic window, current coaching regime is new but has some elements of proven success, administration is new and has no experience in building/running a premiership football club, membership is very small.
Hawthorn - 7
List is on the verge of aging with a closing window and not enough good young replacement players apparent, current coaching regime is solid and proven, administration is very strong and solid, membership is always extremely large.
Melbourne - 4
List is young with promise but has a lot of holes and well short of a window opening, current coaching regime is new and unproven, administration is inconsistent and mistake-prone, membership is always average.
North Melb - 5
List is young enough but still has holes and needs some work, current coaching regime is solid but unproven, administration is solid, membership is always small.
Port Adel - 4
List is average but has many holes and is a long way from an open window, current coaching regime is new and unproven, administration is shaky, membership is unreliable but usually small.
Richmond - 7
List is solid and young enough to have a wide window at present, current coaching regime is stable but unproven, administration is solid but has no experience in building/running a premiership football club, membership is always very large.
St Kilda - 3
List is aging with a closing window and will need significant rebuilding in the next few years, current coaching regime is new and unproven, administration is strong and solid, membership is always average.
Sydney - 9
List is balanced and historically window remains constantly open, current coaching regime is rock solid and proven, administration is strong and solid, membership is usually average.
West Coast - 9
List is solid and young enough to have a wide window at present, current coaching regime is experienced and proven, administration is strong and solid, membership is always very large.
West Bull - 2
List is average with many holes and a long way from an open window, current coaching regime is new and unproven, administration is solid but can be prone to infighting, membership is always small.
=100%
So I fully agree with Ramps but using 100% as a base I couldn't rate any club a 10% chance of winning a flag in the next 10 years.
Thoughts?
