One-Eyed Richmond Forum
Football => Richmond Rant => Topic started by: one-eyed on August 05, 2019, 01:01:18 AM
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The run home: Where we will we finish on the ladder at the end of the Home & Away season?
4. Richmond
52 points (13 wins, six losses), 111.3 per cent
It's going to be tough to toss the Tigers. They've won six on the trot and finish the home and away season with three more games at their MCG stronghold. A clash with Carlton shouldn't pose too many problems, after which they would also be heavily favoured to account for fellow premiership contenders West Coast and Brisbane. A top-two spot is a very real possibility. - Ben Collins
The run home
R21: Carlton @ MCG
R22: West Coast @ MCG
R23: Brisbane @ MCG
https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-08-04/the-run-home-round-20
4. RICHMOND — 52, 111.3%
Nothing too special on a forgettable evening. Toby Nankervis getting through the VFL was vital, his absence being highlighted by Max Gawn’s dominance. And those who watched the VFL said Marlion Pickett isn’t far off being unleashed come finals time. It’s all falling into place.
RUN HOME
Rd 21 Carlton (MCG)
Rd 22 West Coast (MCG)
Rd 23 Brisbane (MCG)
The Tigers are purring — six wins in a row and a scoring average of 109.2 points in that period. Going as well as the 2017 flag year with their last three games at home. If the Cats can’t arrest their slide and the Tigers beat the Eagles and Lions, they can still finish in top spot.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/more-news/superladder-round-20-how-your-team-is-faring-in-the-run-home-to-finals/news-story/dd7003a4047ede32dba2c0d9550ebefd
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The remaining fixtures for the teams around us:
1. Geelong: North (KP), Brisbane (Gabba), Carlton (KP)
2. West Coast: Adelaide (Perth), Richmond (MCG), Hawthorn (Perth)
3. Brisbane: Gold Coast (Gabba), Geelong (Gabba), Richmond (MCG)
5. GWS: Hawthorn (Canberra), Bulldogs (Giants), Gold Coast (Metricon)
6. Collingwood: Melbourne (MCG), Adelaide (AO), Essendon (MCG)
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No room for error it seems.
Need to win all 3 remaining games to finish top 4.
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Yep, not getting carried away. One slip up and we're 5th.
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Must win all 3!
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Unless the Cats and us both beat the Lions
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I can actually see West Coast losing two games from here.
The Crows will be desperate and then they have us. No gimmes, even if they have the Crows at home.
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1. Lions.
2. West Coke.
3. Richmond.
4. GWS.
5. Geelong
6. Collingwood
7. Port.
8. Adelaide.
We have to go to Perth.
The sooks get their “home final”.
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I just get the feeling we will drop one and finish 5th. Hopefully GWS drop one also.
May all come down to Geelong beating Lions then us beating them if we win next 2.
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I wish Sam Reid was paid that mark.
At least our destiny is in our hands.
I feel uncomfortable with regards to our top four aspirations.
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I wish Sam Reid was paid that mark.
At least our destiny is in our hands.
I feel uncomfortable with regards to our top four aspirations.
Don't forget they won another tin-arse game the week before when they knocked off Port by a point.
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Don't discount the Hawks this week, they were terrible after qtr time and wont dish that up again...... Hopefully :snidegrin
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David King has us winning all 3 games and finishing 3rd. He has us playing the Eagles away in the first week of the finals.
Mark Maclure has us losing to Brisbane in the final round to finish 5th and playing Adelaide in an Elimination Final.
https://www.stuff-maclure-predict-final-top-eight/news-story/bc3e30130d8e4db8c93305f7b251895c
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We won't win all three games IMO - the others around us likely will.
Wouldn't be the worst thing in the world finishing 5th. But any elimination final makes me awfully nervous after our last 3 efforts.
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We won't win all three games IMO - the others around us likely will.
Wouldn't be the worst thing in the world finishing 5th. But any elimination final makes me awfully nervous after our last 3 efforts.
So you think we will lose our last two games then?
I an see us maybe dropping one, but not both.
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After Round 21
1. Geelong 60 134.3%
2. Brisbane 60 121.8%
3. West Coast 60 117.0%
4. Richmond 56 112.8%
5. Collingwood 52 113.7%
6. GWS Giants 48 116.5%
7. Essendon 44 93.8%
8. Port Adelaide 40 109.0%
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9. Adelaide 40 107.5%
10. W.Bulldogs 40 102.2%
11. Hawthorn 36 102.2%
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4. Richmond
56 points (14 wins, six losses), 112.8 per cent
The Tigers are sitting nicely in fourth spot with a much healthier percentage than before the bye, when they were ninth with just 92 per cent. But the biggest test of Richmond's season is to come. West Coast has no issues playing at the MCG, while Brisbane is comfortably in its best form for the past 10 years. Win these matches, and a top-two spot will be on the cards. - Sarah Black
The run home
R22: West Coast @ MCG
R23: Brisbane @ MCG
https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-08-11/the-run-home-round-21
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4. RICHMOND 52 112.8%
Rd 22 West Coast (MCG)
Rd 23 Brisbane Lions (MCG)
On behalf of the Tiger Army ... thank you, Hawks! Friday night’s upset makes the double chance a race in five, with Collingwood the only realistic chance of displacing them in the top four. The next two weeks will be tough against West Coast and Brisbane but both games are at the MCG. Win both and the Tigers are a chance for a home final.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/teams/afl-live-ladder-where-every-club-is-placed-on-the-run-home/news-story/086c23fb90ea7fa6ab80d375ef436158
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The remaining fixtures for the teams around us. The top 4 play each other.
1. Geelong: Brisbane (Gabba), Carlton (KP)
2. West Coast: Richmond (MCG), Hawthorn (Perth)
3. Brisbane: Geelong (Gabba), Richmond (MCG)
5. Collingwood: Adelaide (AO), Essendon (MCG)
6. GWS: Bulldogs (Giants), Gold Coast (Metricon)
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Realistically looks like the highest we can finish is 3rd and lowest being 6th.
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If only pies can just fo we would be home for a top 4 berth
Just seen a finals predictor. Finish 5th and the winner will play off against the loser of 1 v 4.
Hopefully cats and ourselves win both remaining games, although I wouldn't be too worried about playing lions either
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Pies games arnt gimmies.
They got the crows in Adelaide this week playing for their season. Then they got the bombers who could also be playing for their season.
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4. RICHMOND 14-6, 112.8, 56
Final two matches: West Coast (MCG), Brisbane Lions (MCG)
Richmond need to win their final two games to make sure they secure a double chance. One win will be enough if Collingwood only manage one more win, but it probably won't be enough if Collingwood win their final two matches. Losing to the Eagles and Lions would be a disaster for the Tigers because not only would they then need the Magpies to drop both of their remaining matches, which looks unlikely given the form Essendon are in, but they would also require GWS to lose a winnable game to either the Bulldogs or Gold Coast.
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/the-run-home-what-your-team-has-to-do-to-finish-in-the-top-four-eight-20190813-p52gk7.html
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I doubt GWS will beat the bulldogs as they looked shot against Hawthorn..... :shh
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I doubt GWS will beat the bulldogs as they looked shot against Hawthorn..... :shh
On current form you would think bulldogs win that game, but who knows the way the season is going
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I think the perfect storm of disaster is we finish 5th and play Bulldogs in a elimination final.
They have our measure winning 4 of the past 5 .
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I think the perfect storm of disaster is we finish 5th and play Bulldogs in a elimination final.
They have our measure winning 4 of the past 5 .
Agree.
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We would be ok at the G youd think
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I think the perfect storm of disaster is we finish 5th and play Bulldogs in a elimination final.
They have our measure winning 4 of the past 5 .
Agree.
Agree x2. Last team I’d like to play right now.
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At least we'd be playing them at the 'G and not Spiderman Stadium ... :shh
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There's more work for Richmond to do, but none of it impossible. Should the Tigers win both of their remaining games, against fellow flag aspirants West Coast and Brisbane and both at the MCG, by decent margins, second place remains on the table. Of course, they could lose both and slip out of the top four altogether. But of all the possible permutations, this still feels like the least likely.
History tells us that every single time the Eagles have finished first or second, they have played in that year's grand final. Beat Richmond at the MCG on Sunday, and a top-two finish and two home finals is just one very achievable home win against mid-table Hawthorn away. Lose to the Tigers, and West Coast is suddenly dependent on results elsewhere or a considerable, almost unattainable, swing in percentage to climb into second. Only once in their history, way back in 1992, have the Eagles made a grand final from outside the top two.
If Brisbane and Richmond win this weekend, the likelihood of the Lions playing the grand final increases exponentially. Their path to a fairytale flag opens right up. If the Lions lose this weekend, the likelihood of them playing in the grand final becomes considerably smaller. Simple as that.
The stakes are somewhat lower for Geelong — given its sizable percentage boost, comparatively easier round-23 fixture and the fact it seems the AFL won't allow it to play its finals at its actual home ground — but a win against Brisbane on Saturday would all but ensure the minor premiership.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-14/afl-2019-season-to-be-defined-by-round-22-games/11413648
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IF THE (BOOKIES’) FAVOURITES WIN EVERY MATCH:
Week 1 finals:
Qualifying final 1 (1v4) — Geelong v Richmond
Qualifying final 2 (2v3) — Brisbane Lions v West Coast
Elimination final 1 (5v8) — GWS v Adelaide
Elimination final 2 (6v7) — Collingwood v Port Adelaide
KEY POINTS: All of the top four would finish with 16 wins and on 64 points. Then it’s a matter of percentage as to who finishes where. The Cats, thanks to their superb first half of the year, should stay clear of the rest. But it could get especially tight as the Lions, Eagles and Tigers try to boot their way into the top two and the rights to host a home qualifying final. Fourth might not be such a bad place for Richmond, forcing them to take on the Cats at the MCG. Remember 2017?
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/more-news/we-look-at-the-potential-afl-stuff-one-as-teams-vie-for-pole-position/news-story/623b1f59bbd7953e5df18523dc3b776a
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Pies have gained 4% thanks to the Crows. So as pmac said in another thread we have to keep on winning to finish top 4.
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Dogs are going to knock off the Giants and jump into 8th spot.
However, even if we were to lose next week [touchwood not] and finish 5th we should avoid them as they should beat the Crows in Ballarat next week to jump ahead of Essendon.
So the scenarios are (assuming % doesn't change greatly and the average margin is 12-36 pts):
We beat Brisbane in R23
A: Cats & Eagles win: Finish 4th and play Geelong in a QF @ the 'G.
B: Cats win; Eagles lose: Finish 3rd and play Brisbane in a QF @ the 'Gabba.
C: Cats lose; Eagles win: Finish 3rd and play West Coast in a QF @ Optus Stadium.
D: Cats & Eagles lose: Finish 2nd and play Geelong in a QF @ the 'G.
We lose to Brisbane in R23:
E: Pies lose: Finish 4th and play Brisbane in a QF @ the 'Gabba.
F: Pies win, Dogs win: Finish 5th and play Essendon in a EF @ the 'G.
G: Pies win, Dogs lose, Hawks win: Finish 5th and play Hawthorn in a EF @ the 'G.
H: Pies win, Dogs lose, Hawks lose: Finish 5th and play Bulldogs/Adelaide/Port in a EF @ the 'G.
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4. Richmond
60 points (15 wins, six losses), 112.5 per cent
Richmond is another side with its top-four hopes in its own hands. However, it perhaps has next week's biggest test on the cards – ladder-leading Brisbane at the MCG. Win that and Richmond is level on points with Brisbane. However, given it has a significantly smaller percentage than Brisbane, Geelong and West Coast, it will still need a host of other results to go its way to somehow jump into the top-two. Lose that clash on Sunday and it risks falling out of the top-four entirely, depending on Collingwood's result against Essendon on Friday night. - Riley Beveridge
The run home
R23: Brisbane @ MCG
https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-08-18/the-run-home-round-22
4. RICHMOND 60 112.5%
Rd 23 Brisbane Lions (MCG)
The Tigers haven’t had a cliffhanger all year but they made it count when it arrived, with a top-four finish riding on victory against the Eagles. Make it eight wins in a row against Brisbane next week and and the double chance is locked in, but they would need a miracle (Geelong losing to Carlton and West Coast losing to Hawthorn, or some crazy percentage moves) to get a home final. Lose and they are likely to be overtaken by the Pies — if they win against Essendon — or the Giants.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/more-news/afl-live-ladder-where-every-club-is-placed-on-the-run-home/news-story/7112e1f19bc7888105a8df3f0b1f4182
RICHMOND TIGERS
60 points, 112.5%, to play: Brisbane (MCG)
Best case: The Tigers can finish first, but only if Geelong lose and the Tigers have a victory margin 40 points better than West Coast. Any win over Brisbane locks them in the top four.
Worst case: If Richmond lose and Collingwood win they drop to fifth, but if the Magpies lose on Friday the Tigers can't drop below fourth.
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/who-finishes-top-who-makes-the-eight-key-equations-for-afl-finals-20190818-p52iba.html
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The percentages of support I will be giving other clubs in Rnd 23 games to benefit us, even if they are stinking cheating rivals:
100% Essendon to beat Collingwood.
85% Geelong to beat Carlton. You can't wholeheartedly hope for Geelong to win this game because it only works if we win & West Coast win too. Which WC probably will.
If Geelong win:
100% West Coast to beat Hawthorn.
If Carlton win:
100% support to Hawthorn
WB vs Adelaide is an interesting one. It depends on the result of the Collingwood/Ess game.
If Pies win:
100% Western Bulldogs. This is a best case scenario in case we lose to Brisbane. You'd prefer not to be meeting WB in a knockout final if you can help it. This will give us Essendon who we should smash.
If Essendon win:
100% Adelaide 6 goal win. Again safeguarding barracking in case we lose to Bris. Would rather play the Crows in a knockout than WB.
55% Freo, just need to give Port a run for their money in case we lose to Bris.
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4. Richmond Tigers
15 wins, 6 losses, 112.5 per cent
vs Brisbane Lions, MCG, Sunday 3:20pm
Hypothetically could still win the minor premiership if: they beat the Brisbane by about 150 points, Geelong lose to Carlton, and West Coast either lose to Hawthorn or at least don’t beat Hawthorn by more than around 90 points.
That is, to say the least, unlikely. Somewhat more realistic is that they look to beat Brisbane by ten goals or so, Geelong lose to Carlton, and West Coast lose to Hawthorn or only win by a small margin, and they sneak into second.
Still not very likely. Their most realistic goal would be to finished third or fourth, which they’ll do if they get a win over Brisbane, or if they lose to Brisbane but Collingwood also lose to Essendon on Friday night.
If so, they’d be dreaming of another qualifying final against Geelong at the MCG, which is a very real possibility – if they beat the Lions while Geelong and West Coast both win, and they don’t overtake the Eagles on percentage, this will happen.
Worst case scenario is they lose to the Lions and while Collingwood beat Essendon on Friday night – then they’d slip to fifth and lose the double chance.
Predicted finish: 4th. Away qualifying final vs Geelong.
https://www.theroar.com.au/2019/08/19/the-finals-equation-every-afl-clubs-round-23-best-and-worst-case-scenario/
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Yes away final to Geelong
At the MCG :lol
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If Richmond wins
The Tigers will lock in a top-four spot and could finish as high as first depending on West Coast and Geelong's matches.
The Lions could finish as low as fourth depending on West Coast and Geelong's matches.
If Brisbane wins
The Lions will win the minor premiership and host a qualifying final.
The Tigers could finish as low as fifth.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-08-23/shape-of-the-eight-wholl-win-the-race-to-september
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Richmond v Brisbane Lions, 3:20pm, MCG
The final make-up of the top four will be determined in this game, with Collingwood’s win keeping the pressure on.
The Tigers cannot finish on top following Geelong’s win over Carlton, but can still host a final if they beat the Lions by 10 goals or more while also passing West Coast (by either the Eagles losing, or dropping back on percentage).
Perhaps more importantly, a win will guarantee Damien Hardwick’s side of a top four place. If they are beaten by the Lions, then Collingwood (thanks to its win over Essendon) will pass them.
Theoretically the Eagles could be thrashed and fall below the Tigers, saving them from finishing fifth if they do lose.
The Lions can guarantee themselves the minor premiership — the first for the club in all of its different versions in over a century — if they win on Sunday.
If they lose, Geelong will finish on top of the ladder instead, but as long as the margin is close the Lions still have a good chance of finishing second.
West Coast needs to make up a percentage gap worth approximately 12 goals - so a six-goal win over the Hawks, combined with a six-goal Lions loss to the Tigers, would see the Eagles second and Lions third.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-finals-2019-how-round-23-impacts-every-finals-contender-live-ladder-and-predicted-top-eight/news-story/51d5866ace083c097962a455fb3aa90e
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Far@@en West Coast trying to avoid Brisbane week 1...hope hawks or dogs belt the crap out of them over there
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The west coke had there GF last Sunday and like Adelaide in ‘17 had nothing after 1/4 time.
And Like the Crows, I don’t think they’ll recover. :rollin
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We're still 4th ....
.... by 0.014% ;D.
4. Richmond 60 112.492%
5. West Coast 60 112.478%
https://www.afl.com.au/ladder
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2nd We can win by more than 10 goals. :gotigers
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Looks like we will finish 3rd or 5th.
Would rather finish 3rd and play Brisbane at the Gabba than finish 5th and play WB haha. Bogey team!
Chances of belting Brisbane by 10+ goals is slim but it would be lovely
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Cant play Bulldogs
Win Brisbane up there discounting some miracle belting and we sneak into second then Brisbane here
Lose
Essendon
Hawthorn
Port or Adelaide
Destiny in our hands JUST WIN THE LOT 4 Games to go
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IF we have the same FOR and AGAINST as WC who gets 4th position?
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Pretty sure it's a coin toss believe it or not
Heard this the other day
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Cannot happen. Impossible. To get the same for and against we win 92 to 82. By winning we already get 3rd......
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A draw gets us a home final against Geelong
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A draw gets us a home final against Geelong
a draw would see us finish 3rd & an "away" final against Geebung
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A draw gets us a home final against Geelong
I'll take it, not sure of my heart though.
:snidegrin
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It will be what it will be
Just want to win
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If Richmond wins
The Tigers can finish no lower than third. If they beat the Lions by 63 points or more, they will finish second and host a qualifying final against Brisbane.
The Lions will finish second if Richmond fails to win by enough. Either way, Richmond and Brisbane will play again in the first week of finals.
If Brisbane wins
The Lions will win the minor premiership and host a qualifying final against West Coast.
The Tigers will finish fifth.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-08-23/shape-of-the-eight-wholl-win-the-race-to-september
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I’m getting more confident in our ability.
I’m in the 11 goal win camp. Sets us up for a home final at our home.
We can do it, because it was only round 4 last year we only let them kick 2 goals 5 to win by 93 points.
We have the ability to really cement ourselves thanks to the Eagles falling off the perch since we towelled them last week without our captain or our key defender. :rollin
The eagles will soon be in the same padded sell as the Crows.
A good belting today the lions will have a couple of weeks to try and figure something out but get to watch how to set up a premiership close and personal. :rollin
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A caller on 3aw just now said he overheard two Brisbane officials in a Melbourne hotel saying they want a day final at the Gabba to maximise any home advantage in the heat of the day.
Let's hope the AFL goes with Thursday, Friday & Saturday night finals to maximise TV ratings. The Qualifying Finals would then be night games even if one is at the Gabba. The second Elimination Final is always played on the Sunday arvo nowdays.
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Jay Clark claims this will be the line-up for the first week of the finals if we win today. We'll play on a Saturday night.
Thursday night: West Coast Eagles v Essendon (Perth)
Friday night: Geelong v Collingwood (MCG)
Saturday: GWS Giants v Western Bulldogs (Giants)
Saturday night: Brisbane v Richmond (Gabba)
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/more-news/afl-2019-finals-fixture-who-will-play-where-in-september/news-story/584d0a728b379342551eb980da1eec2f