There's more work for Richmond to do, but none of it impossible. Should the Tigers win both of their remaining games, against fellow flag aspirants West Coast and Brisbane and both at the MCG, by decent margins, second place remains on the table. Of course, they could lose both and slip out of the top four altogether. But of all the possible permutations, this still feels like the least likely.
History tells us that every single time the Eagles have finished first or second, they have played in that year's grand final. Beat Richmond at the MCG on Sunday, and a top-two finish and two home finals is just one very achievable home win against mid-table Hawthorn away. Lose to the Tigers, and West Coast is suddenly dependent on results elsewhere or a considerable, almost unattainable, swing in percentage to climb into second. Only once in their history, way back in 1992, have the Eagles made a grand final from outside the top two.
If Brisbane and Richmond win this weekend, the likelihood of the Lions playing the grand final increases exponentially. Their path to a fairytale flag opens right up. If the Lions lose this weekend, the likelihood of them playing in the grand final becomes considerably smaller. Simple as that.
The stakes are somewhat lower for Geelong — given its sizable percentage boost, comparatively easier round-23 fixture and the fact it seems the AFL won't allow it to play its finals at its actual home ground — but a win against Brisbane on Saturday would all but ensure the minor premiership.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-14/afl-2019-season-to-be-defined-by-round-22-games/11413648
