The run home: Where will we finish on the ladder?

[one-eyed]

Pies have gained 4% thanks to the Crows. So as pmac said in another thread we have to keep on winning to finish top 4.

[one-eyed]

Dogs are going to knock off the Giants and jump into 8th spot.

However, even if we were to lose next week [touchwood not] and finish 5th we should avoid them as they should beat the Crows in Ballarat next week to jump ahead of Essendon.

So the scenarios are (assuming % doesn't change greatly and the average margin is 12-36 pts):

We beat Brisbane in R23

A: Cats & Eagles win:      Finish 4th and play Geelong in a QF @ the 'G.
B: Cats win; Eagles lose: Finish 3rd and play Brisbane in a QF @ the 'Gabba.
C: Cats lose; Eagles win: Finish 3rd and play West Coast in a QF @ Optus Stadium.
D: Cats & Eagles lose:     Finish 2nd and play Geelong in a QF @ the 'G.

We lose to Brisbane in R23:

E: Pies lose:                  Finish 4th and play Brisbane in a QF @ the 'Gabba.
F: Pies win, Dogs win:    Finish 5th and play Essendon in a EF @ the 'G.
G: Pies win, Dogs lose, Hawks win:  Finish 5th and play Hawthorn in a EF @ the 'G.
H: Pies win, Dogs lose, Hawks lose: Finish 5th and play Bulldogs/Adelaide/Port in a EF @ the 'G.

[one-eyed]

4. Richmond

60 points (15 wins, six losses), 112.5 per cent
Richmond is another side with its top-four hopes in its own hands. However, it perhaps has next week's biggest test on the cards – ladder-leading Brisbane at the MCG. Win that and Richmond is level on points with Brisbane. However, given it has a significantly smaller percentage than Brisbane, Geelong and West Coast, it will still need a host of other results to go its way to somehow jump into the top-two. Lose that clash on Sunday and it risks falling out of the top-four entirely, depending on Collingwood's result against Essendon on Friday night. - Riley Beveridge

The run home
R23: Brisbane @ MCG

https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-08-18/the-run-home-round-22

4. RICHMOND 60 112.5%

Rd 23 Brisbane Lions (MCG)

The Tigers haven’t had a cliffhanger all year but they made it count when it arrived, with a top-four finish riding on victory against the Eagles. Make it eight wins in a row against Brisbane next week and and the double chance is locked in, but they would need a miracle (Geelong losing to Carlton and West Coast losing to Hawthorn, or some crazy percentage moves) to get a home final. Lose and they are likely to be overtaken by the Pies — if they win against Essendon — or the Giants.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/more-news/afl-live-ladder-where-every-club-is-placed-on-the-run-home/news-story/7112e1f19bc7888105a8df3f0b1f4182

RICHMOND TIGERS

60 points, 112.5%, to play: Brisbane (MCG)

Best case: The Tigers can finish first, but only if Geelong lose and the Tigers have a victory margin 40 points better than West Coast. Any win over Brisbane locks them in the top four.

Worst case: If Richmond lose and Collingwood win they drop to fifth, but if the Magpies lose on Friday the Tigers can't drop below fourth.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/who-finishes-top-who-makes-the-eight-key-equations-for-afl-finals-20190818-p52iba.html

[DCrane]

The percentages of support I will be giving other clubs in Rnd 23 games to benefit us, even if they are stinking cheating rivals:
 
100% Essendon to beat Collingwood.

85% Geelong to beat Carlton. You can't wholeheartedly hope for Geelong to win this game because it only works if we win & West Coast win too. Which WC probably will.
If Geelong win:
100% West Coast to beat Hawthorn.
If Carlton win:
100% support to Hawthorn

WB vs Adelaide is an interesting one. It depends on the result of the Collingwood/Ess game.
If Pies win:
100% Western Bulldogs. This is a best case scenario in case we lose to Brisbane. You'd prefer not to be meeting WB in a knockout final if you can help it. This will give us Essendon who we should smash.
If Essendon win:
100% Adelaide 6 goal win. Again safeguarding barracking in case we lose to Bris. Would rather play the Crows in a knockout than WB.
55% Freo, just need to give Port a run for their money in case we lose to Bris.

[one-eyed]

4. Richmond Tigers

15 wins, 6 losses, 112.5 per cent
vs Brisbane Lions, MCG, Sunday 3:20pm

Hypothetically could still win the minor premiership if: they beat the Brisbane by about 150 points, Geelong lose to Carlton, and West Coast either lose to Hawthorn or at least don’t beat Hawthorn by more than around 90 points.

That is, to say the least, unlikely. Somewhat more realistic is that they look to beat Brisbane by ten goals or so, Geelong lose to Carlton, and West Coast lose to Hawthorn or only win by a small margin, and they sneak into second.

Still not very likely. Their most realistic goal would be to finished third or fourth, which they’ll do if they get a win over Brisbane, or if they lose to Brisbane but Collingwood also lose to Essendon on Friday night.

If so, they’d be dreaming of another qualifying final against Geelong at the MCG, which is a very real possibility – if they beat the Lions while Geelong and West Coast both win, and they don’t overtake the Eagles on percentage, this will happen.

Worst case scenario is they lose to the Lions and while Collingwood beat Essendon on Friday night – then they’d slip to fifth and lose the double chance.

Predicted finish: 4th. Away qualifying final vs Geelong.

https://www.theroar.com.au/2019/08/19/the-finals-equation-every-afl-clubs-round-23-best-and-worst-case-scenario/

[Rampsation]

Yes away final to Geelong

At the MCG 

[one-eyed]

If Richmond wins

    The Tigers will lock in a top-four spot and could finish as high as first depending on West Coast and Geelong's matches.
    The Lions could finish as low as fourth depending on West Coast and Geelong's matches.

If Brisbane wins

    The Lions will win the minor premiership and host a qualifying final.
    The Tigers could finish as low as fifth.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-08-23/shape-of-the-eight-wholl-win-the-race-to-september

[one-eyed]

Richmond v Brisbane Lions, 3:20pm, MCG

The final make-up of the top four will be determined in this game, with Collingwood’s win keeping the pressure on.

The Tigers cannot finish on top following Geelong’s win over Carlton, but can still host a final if they beat the Lions by 10 goals or more while also passing West Coast (by either the Eagles losing, or dropping back on percentage).

Perhaps more importantly, a win will guarantee Damien Hardwick’s side of a top four place. If they are beaten by the Lions, then Collingwood (thanks to its win over Essendon) will pass them.

Theoretically the Eagles could be thrashed and fall below the Tigers, saving them from finishing fifth if they do lose.

The Lions can guarantee themselves the minor premiership — the first for the club in all of its different versions in over a century — if they win on Sunday.

If they lose, Geelong will finish on top of the ladder instead, but as long as the margin is close the Lions still have a good chance of finishing second.

West Coast needs to make up a percentage gap worth approximately 12 goals - so a six-goal win over the Hawks, combined with a six-goal Lions loss to the Tigers, would see the Eagles second and Lions third.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-finals-2019-how-round-23-impacts-every-finals-contender-live-ladder-and-predicted-top-eight/news-story/51d5866ace083c097962a455fb3aa90e

[sdc01]

Far@@en West Coast trying to avoid Brisbane week 1...hope hawks or dogs belt the crap out of them over there

[Tigeritis™©®]

The west coke had there GF last Sunday and like Adelaide in ‘17 had nothing after 1/4 time.

And Like the Crows, I don’t think they’ll recover. 

[one-eyed]

We're still 4th ....





.... by 0.014%  .

4. Richmond    60   112.492%
5. West Coast  60   112.478%

https://www.afl.com.au/ladder

[Tigeritis™©®]

2nd We can win by more than 10 goals. 

[Andyy]

Looks like we will finish 3rd or 5th.

Would rather finish 3rd and play Brisbane at the Gabba than finish 5th and play WB haha. Bogey team!

Chances of belting Brisbane by 10+ goals is slim but it would be lovely

[cub]

Cant play Bulldogs

Win Brisbane up there discounting some miracle belting and we sneak into second then Brisbane here
Lose

Essendon
Hawthorn
Port or Adelaide

Destiny in our hands JUST WIN THE LOT 4 Games to go

[torch]

IF we have the same FOR and AGAINST as WC who gets 4th position?