One-Eyed Richmond Forum
Football => Richmond Rant => Topic started by: one-eyed on November 10, 2020, 06:54:22 PM
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This was a topic on SEN today.
Dwayne Russell said:
- Geelong again given they have or will gain Jeremy Cameron, Shaun Higgins & Isaac Smith.
- Brisbane again after adding Joe Daniher.
- St Kilda with their additions.
- Port
- West Coast
Matt Rendall added Collingwood if they change their gameplan as they have slowed Richmond's play and stopped the Tigers from scoring in their clashes.
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This was a topic on SEN today.
Dwayne Russell said:
- Geelong again given they have or will gain Jeremy Cameron, Shaun Higgins & Isaac Smith.
- Brisbane again after adding Joe Daniher.
- St Kilda with their additions.
- Port
- West Coast
Matt Rendall added Collingwood if they change their gameplan as they have slowed Richmond's play and stopped the Tigers from scoring in their clashes.
Geez Matt R has turned into a Big footy nuffie
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I agree with him.
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ourselves.
Play to our absolute best and no one will beat us
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Nobody.
We will fist them all where the sun don't shine.
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I still see a gap between the top 6 teams: Richmond, Geelong, west coast, Collingwood, port and Brisbane to the rest of the comp. I wouldn’t rate st Kilda in that group regardless of how the ladder and finals played out this year. I’d also have the giants as a chance to climb back into that top group next season, still a very very talented list.
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GEELONG "WOULD WANT TO WIN A FLAG" IN 2021
Matthew Lloyd has laid down the challenge to Geelong after bringing in older recruits and trading out younger players Lachie Fogarty and Nakia Cockatoo.
The Cats fielded the oldest ever V/AFL team earlier this year, although Gary Ablett (36) and Harry Taylor (34) have since retired.
After listing recruits who will have the biggest impact on their new clubs on Trade Radio, Lloyd was asked if the Cats were premiership favourites for next year.
"Probably not, but you would want to win a flag next year with the way they've gone about it," Lloyd said.
"They'll be hurt, they would have started the period thinking 'we'll get these players in but we'll also have a good hand in the draft', but with the way the Giants have been, they probably won't have a good hand in the draft.
"We've got Jeremy Cameron (set to come) in, Shaun Higgins, Isaac Smith, but it's they're an ageing three, so there'll be some Geelong supporters saying 'where's our youth?'.
"I can understand both sides of the argument, but to get Jeremy Cameron in at 27 years of age, they were always having to give up a lot, but probably not as much as they (first thought)."
Kane Cornes believes it's the Cats' last chance, after falling short in this year's Grand Final against Richmond.
"Last roll, you would think. (Joel) Selwood, maybe one good season left, (Tom) Hawkins, one more, 'Danger' (Patrick Dangerfield) you might get a few more, (Sam) Menegola is nearly 30 and out of contract [at the end of next year]."
https://www.afl.com.au/trade/trade-talk
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The first thing is, our teams conditioning is just unreal. We wear sides down, they just cannot maintain the effort for four quarters even if they have some of the most skilled players in the comp. Second quarters, I watch, they fade like a gassed out boxer dropping their guard. I see them looking around hoping someone else is chasing a bit harder because they are blown and our guys are still going flat knacker...It blows me away every time.
Port did well against us with all the stars aligned for them at their home ground and still couldn't do it. At the MCG this is exacerbated because it is a big ground and we love it.
Brisbane, just got us at their home ground with some seriously affectionate umpiring swept away by the whole Granny in Brissy horsepoo imo. But they did show some good signs and played a similar game to us, back at us. Granny back in Melbourne, I think we are good.
Geelong, we ran them into the ground on a small ground where they had a great advantage to use their style of ball control. They failed, they gassed out, they tried everything. They are not recruiting kids in. The velvet anvil head is right on the hammer with this
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Wise words from The One Who Hoots.
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I think Port are a bit of a flash in the pan...
2021 they won’t have all the home games they didn’t this year and they aren’t good travellers IMO.
I would love to see them stink it up.
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I think Port are a bit of a flash in the pan...
2021 they won’t have all the home games they didn’t this year and they aren’t good travellers IMO.
I would love to see them stink it up.
West Coast and Brisbane a bit the same. 2021 is ours for the taking.
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Saints are interesting, look like they are on the up with some good ins. Colonwood...Dunno, if they get rid of Trollol before close of business, might be a bit of an unknown quantity. Mini rebuild..
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Saints and Bulldogs will improve. Cats appear to be trying to buy a premiership.
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Saints and Bulldogs will improve. Cats appear to be trying to buy a premiership.
Let’s be honest...there is nothing with trying ‘to buy’ a premiership (or title). Every big sporting club around the world employ the same tactics :
Barcelona
Manchester City
New England Patriots
Building a home grown or generic list sometimes will simply not get the job done.
Having said that....I think Geelong are in for a world of pain in 3 years time.
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Geelong Cats, Western Bulldogs’ odds shorten to win 2021 AFL Premiership
By Morgan+
Sports News
12/11/2020 at 9:44 pm
The arrival of Jeremy Cameron from Greater Western Sydney has resulted in Geelong tightening from $6 to $5.50 at TAB to win the 2021 AFL premiership.
The Cats will be hoping that the acquisition of Cameron helps to secure Geelong’s first premiership since 2011 after falling by 31 points to Richmond in last month’s grand final.
The Western Bulldogs have shortened from $17 to $15 after the 11th-hour trade of Adam Treloar from Collingwood.
The Magpies have drifted from $11 to $13 after losing Treloar along with Jaidyn Stephenson (to North Melbourne) and Tom Phillips (to Hawthorn).
Richmond are the $4 favourites to claim their third-straight premiership in 2021.
(TAB ODDS)
2021 AFL Premiership
$4 Richmond
$5.50 Geelong $6 before arrival of Jeremy Cameron
$7.50 Brisbane
$8 West Coast
$9 Port Adelaide
$13 Collingwood $11 before trades
$15 Western Bulldogs $17 before arrival of Adam Treloar
$17 GWS $15 before departure of Jeremy Cameron
$17 St Kilda
$26 Melbourne
$34 Carlton
$51 Fremantle
$51 Hawthorn
$67 Essendon
$81 Gold Coast
$81 Sydney
$101 Adelaide
$201 North Melbourne
https://www.sportsnews.com.au/afl/geelong-cats-western-bulldogs-odds-shorten-to-win-2021-afl-premiership/550172
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Saints and Bulldogs will improve. Cats appear to be trying to buy a premiership.
Let’s be honest...there is nothing with trying ‘to buy’ a premiership (or title). Every big sporting club around the world employ the same tactics :
Barcelona
Manchester City
New England Patriots
Building a home grown or generic list sometimes will simply not get the job done.
Having said that....I think Geelong are in for a world of pain in 3 years time.
Champion teams win premierships not teams of Champions. GWS is a perfect example of this.
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Kane Cornes of course to grab attention has Geelong now ahead of us and favourite for next year's flag.
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New gameplan 16 full forwards and a couple of midfielders
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Systems win premierships not good teams on paper.
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Kane Cornes of course to grab attention has Geelong now ahead of us and favourite for next year's flag.
They have 5mths of air time to fill on SEN now. Its pretty boring saying Richmond will win again.
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We don't have to win now which probably makes us more dangerous. We have done enough in my eyes. But of course a 4th would be nice
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It will interesting to see how many of the Geelong’s geriatrics rum out the year
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Surge or slide: The early verdict on every AFL club’s 2021 chances
Ben Waterworth
November 26, 2020
FOX SPORTS
Several clubs with promising lists are well placed to surge into finals contention next year.
But for other teams, they face a possible slide down the ladder.
Foxfooty.com.au assesses all 18 clubs and predicts whether they’ll be in the top-eight race or experience a dip in fortunes.
THE FLAG CONTENDERS
Brisbane and Hawthorn’s 21st century dynasties ended with three flags – but you sense this Richmond line-up is perfectly placed for a crack at a fourth premiership in five seasons. The Tigers were disappointed to lose Jack Higgins to the Saints and Oleg Markov to the Suns – particularly Higgins, who they invested heavily in by selecting him with Pick 17 three years ago – but it’d also become clear the pair weren’t part of the club’s best 22. So it means the benchmark team’s best players have remained and the list post-trade period hasn’t weakened – a scary proposition for 17 other clubs.
On the subject of teams that haven’t weakened, Geelong appears to have thrown the short-term gauntlet in search of premiership glory. Not only did the Cats give up three first-round picks to acquire the hottest free agent in Jeremy Cameron, they also picked up 32-year-old Shaun Higgins and 31-year-old Isaac Smith to solidify their standing as the oldest list in the competition — and with no 2020 first-round draft picks. Chris Scott’s men will be in the flag mix again in 2021, but you sense anything less than a flag will be met with ample external scrutiny considering the list path the club has taken.
Hot on the heels of the Tigers and Cats will be Brisbane and Port Adelaide, who’ve surged into premiership contention over recent years – and won’t be going anywhere in 2021. On paper, Joe Daniher is the ideal addition for the Lions – and if it clicks for him, he could help the team take a step or two further. The Power are just as well placed to challenge again. They’ve got some of the best young guns in the competition playing in a Ken Hinkley system viewed by many as the league’s most reliable and sustainable. Orazio Fantasia and Aliir Aliir will only help, too.
And even though their 2020 campaigns ended earlier than they would’ve hoped, it’s hard to see either St Kilda or the Western Bulldogs sliding out of flag contention after their respective trade periods. The Saints landed the ball magnet they were after in Brad Crouch, Jack Higgins’ true potential could be unlocked and Shaun McKernan could be massive for Max King’s development. The trio join an already united, team-orientated group that plays for the jumper and its coach. As for the Bulldogs, they were widely regarded as the biggest winner of the trade period after retaining Josh Dunkley, acquiring a genuine star in Adam Treloar, addressing one of its most pressing needs by bringing in experienced ruckman Stefan Martin and keeping ample draft points to match a bid on academy prospect Jamarra Ugle-Hagan whenever that comes.
THE FINALS CONTENDERS
The core of the West Coast Eagles’ 2018 premiership side remains – and as long as that group is there, the Eagles should be in the finals mix. Whether they have edge to push them into the flag mix, however, remains doubtful. Following the Eagles’ 2020 finals exit, St Kilda great Leigh Montagna urged coach Adam Simpson to consider adjusting the way they play as they often rely on efficiency – which can be hard to sustain – rather than winning groundballs and locking the ball in their forward half, to win games.
Then there’s the chasing pack of teams that missed finals last year but will enter 2021 with real hope and promise.
Carlton arguably headlines the list. The Blues during the trade period added Zac Williams from the Giants, Adam Saad from the Bombers and Lachie Fogarty from the Cats to an already promising list with ample first-round draft talent. It all came after their seven-win 2020 campaign where they ranked equal-fourth for total quarters won (39) and pushed flag contenders like Brisbane, West Coast and St Kilda. If they hadn’t faded out so often, they could’ve been in the top eight mix in the final rounds. Dual premiership Kangaroo David King on SEN Breakfast predicted the Blues could take a “giant stride” in 2021. Dare we ask: Can you smell what the Blues are cooking?
Melbourne, arguably, should’ve made this year’s finals series – based on their percentage, anyway – only to blow it late in the season with two costly losses to the Swans and Dockers. But the Demons have a list and on-ball brigade that should not only be pushing for finals, but featuring in them. Club supporters are thrilled with the acquisition of Ben Brown, who’ll provide Simon Goodwin with a genuine goalkicking option that’ll help ease the burden on Sam Weideman.
Fremantle is another club that finished this year outside the eight but emerged with plenty of positive vibes under first-year coach Justin Longmuir. Their lack of recent trade activity – outside of offloading Jesse Hogan to the Giants – suggests the Dockers are happy with how they’re placed. You can understand why, too, after winning five of their last eight games of 2020 and finishing with a healthy percentage of 93.7. Their young midfield is very promising.
Percentage is often a more accurate guide to how well a team is performing. That’s why it’s important to look at the Gold Coast Suns’ 2020 campaign with a half-glass full attitude after they finished with a percentage of 90.6. Yes they ended up 14th on the ladder and won just one of their final 10 games, but that record could’ve easily been four of 10 considering the close results against the Bulldogs, Saints and Bombers. They’ve added some outside dash in Rory Atkins and Oleg Markov to a list filled to the brim with young talent and will only improve with the more games they play together.
We’re putting Sydney in this category too. The Swans’ group of 20 to 24-year-olds, which includes the likes of Dylan Stephens, Nick Blakey, James Rowbottom, Will Hayward, Ollie Florent, Jordan Dawson, Callum Mills and Tom Papley, is mightily impressive. Next year they’ll get Isaac Heeney back from a long-term injury – possibly Lance Franklin too – while they could also add three first-round draftees: Academy duo Braeden Campbell and Errol Gulden, as well as the player they select at Pick 3, widely tipped to be WA key defender Denver Grainger-Barras. Fox Footy’s David King made a big call on the last night of the trade period: “They’ll come with a rush, and I think they’re finals next year. With a little bit of luck with (Lance) Franklin, they’re contenders.”
THE SLIDERS
While the core group of a really good side is still there, you could argue the Giants have been forced into a mini reset-on-the-run after losing six players – if you include Jackson Hately, who’ll become a Crow via the pre-season draft – during the AFL exchange period. The Giants are still in a good space long-term from a list demographic perspective, but it’s hard to overlook that 2020 post-season exodus, which makes you question how disruptive it’ll be in the short-term.
As aforementioned, percentage is often a truer indication of how well a team is tracking – and that’s why for us Essendon slides, pardon the pun, into this section. The Bombers won just one of their final 10 games of 2020, meaning they finished 13th on the ladder. But their percentage of 79.2 – a result of big losses to finalists like the Bulldogs, Lions, Saints, Cats and Power – was the third-worst in the competition. Now they’re without one of their most important players in Adam Saad, while Orazio Fantasia and Joe Daniher are also at rival clubs. Yes they have three consecutive draft picks in the top 10, while Peter Wright and Jye Caldwell looms as promising additions in the long-term. But in the short-term it’s hard to see the Bombers improving on last year.
Which brings us to Collingwood – the most heavily-dissected club before, during and after this year’s trade period. The losses of Adam Treloar, Jaidyn Stephenson and Tom Phillips to rival clubs – without much compensation – has “almost committed Nathan Buckley to starting a rebuild”, according to David King. The Pies are hopeful the likes of Callum Brown, Tyler Brown, Josh Daicos and Brayden Sier can improve their outputs with the extra exposure they’ll receive next year. But the Pies’ inability to score was their biggest concern during 2020 – an issue that wasn’t addressed during the trade period. Buckley now faces one of his biggest challenges as a coach to reunite a heavily-scrutinised playing group over the summer and push again for a premiership after Grand Final, preliminary final and semi-final losses in three straight seasons. Realistically, it’s hard to see the Pies making the eight again after barely scraping in this year.
IN A HOLDING PATTERN
The Hawks, Kangaroos and Crows occupied three of the bottom four spots on the AFL ladder last season. While there’s obvious potential for ladder improvement in 2021, don’t expect it to be significant.
Hawthorn saw five players aged over 30 depart the club at season’s end, yet topped up with a 29-year-old (Kyle Hartigan) and 24-year-old (Tom Phillips) during the exchange period. The key to the Hawks’ success in 2021 will be if Jon Patton can remain fit, as well the ability of on-ballers like Tom Mitchell, James Worpel, Jaeger O’Meara, Liam Shiels and Phillips to click and work together effectively.
At least both Adelaide and North Melbourne fans know where their respective clubs are at. It’s hard to see either of their teams venturing out of the bottom four in 2021, but there’s enough hope for supporters to grasp onto beyond next year. The Crows are well stacked for the first round of this year’s draft with four picks inside the top 23 selections, while they’ll pick up Giant Jackson Hately for nothing at the pre-season draft. And after acquiring Aidan Corr and Jaidyn Stephenson – two players who’ll walk into their best 22 line-up – during the AFL exchange period, the Kangaroos enter next month’s draft with two top-11 picks.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-predictions-2021-finals-top-eight-improvers-fallers-teams-that-will-improve-and-decline-collingwood-carlton-fremantle/news-story/6a886c4634d4757634c49365db974287
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It will interesting to see how many of the Geelong’s geriatrics rum out the year
they could play eight 30 plus yr olds next yr along with two or three 29 yr olds.
Stanley 30, Dangerfield 30, Higgins 33, Selwood 32, Duncan 29, Menegola 29, Smith 32 all midfielders all enter the vet stage of their careers at age 29 plus at the start of the season proper.
Then in the back half Blicavs 30, Tuohy 31, Henderson 31 all 30 plus.
Then up forward Hawkins 32 and both Cameron and Dahlaus aged 28. Other 28yr olds include Guthrie and Stewart.
Reckon there could be as many as 6 changes to their g/f side at the start of the season, Thats depending on how they structure up and what younger players step up.
What interested me was this yr down back they played all of Blicavs, Henderson, Taylor and Koldjashnij all kpp size and imo just too big
At least that may well be cut down to three with the Taylor retirement.
What do they do with 22 yr old 197/102 Ratugolea do they play him Hawkins and Cameron?
I think blokes like Rohan 29, Tuohy 31, Bews 27 will miss out and Taylor 34 and Ablett 26 have retired.
Ins maybe Higgins 33, Cameron 28, I Smith 32, J Clark 20 Ratugolea 22, C Stevens
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I think Higgins was an in so the other kids don't have to play every game but I don't see him as that great a pick up. Isaac Smith on the other hand could be very good. I think Gary Rohan is a goner for Cameron or Smith depending on where they are playing. Bloody heck it's an old list.
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I love it when Essendon & Carlton are both talking it up only to be perennial losers.
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A speculative look at the next AFL season
Chip
theRoar.com.au
27 November 2020
With the trade period over and draft occurring soon, it’s time to try some early speculation about the season ahead.
This shapes as one of the most intriguing seasons yet as there could be some real movement into and within the top eight. Using seafaring terminology, here is a look at how the ladder could pan out in 2021.
Full steam ahead
Richmond and Port Adelaide stand out in this leading category. It is hard to go past Richmond, although continuing the voyage is a difficult one. With admirable depth in their list and arguably the greatest Tiger of all in Dustin Martin, a well-established game plan and strong leadership on and off the field all make for a happy mix.
Of course, a three-peat would really put them in rarefied air up there with Hawthorn, Brisbane and much further back the powerhouse Melbourne teams. Key constraints for Richmond are obvious ones: complacency, satisfaction with success and lack of hunger and injuries to key personnel, something that could bedevil all teams. They were able to deal with and put aside off-field dramas, the sign of a well-functioning outfit.
In this category, although not to the same extent, is Port Adelaide. 2020 was full of promise and the Power should be smarting at their narrow loss in the rain-sodden preliminary final, especially at home. The further blossoming of their younger players and some shrewd recruitment during the trade season bodes well.
A nice tailwind
There are three teams in this camp and they could go all the way if things go well: Brisbane, Geelong and St Kilda. These teams did well in 2020 winning at least one final, which should hold them in good stead. However, there are a few questions over them.
How much did Brisbane benefit from the non-travel factor in 2020 given that their record in Melbourne is not strong? Will the younger players, many of whom did not play particularly well in the semi-final, continue to develop and what impact will Joe Daniher have?
For Geelong, the acquisition of Jeremy Cameron is a good one but potentially at a hefty long-term price. Will this ageing list be able to have one more shot in the locker?
For St Kilda, much like Brisbane, can the younger players continue the upward movement? While not as prolific in this trade period compared to the last, there is a sense that this list is building nicely, requiring more refinement rather than drastic surgery.
Uncharted waters
This next and largest group is the most intriguing and has the most questions. In this group are Collingwood, GWS, Essendon, Melbourne, West Coast and the Western Bulldogs. These sides could perhaps make their way into contention for high honours or slide down the table.
For Collingwood, much has been said and written about their messy trade period. A lot is being left to making sure that this upcoming draft really counts, especially for key forwards and midfield replenishment, and as everyone knows drafting can be hit and miss. Added to this is the unknown intangible impact on the team morale and fabric associated with the contentious departure of some key players. They have been thereabouts but not quite good enough for the last few seasons.
GWS is somewhat of a mystery. It is surprising that a team which lost the 2019 grand final could not rise to the occasion in 2020 and indeed fell away sharply. To what extent the dropping of the captain contributed to the poor season is hard to assess, although the season was well and truly on the rocks before that happened. Possibly they have been overrated as a club, as observers have been seduced by the sheer volume of early-season draft picks.
For Essendon, it is hard to gauge whether it is on the right side of the ledger post-trade. The loss of Adam Saad and Daniher may or not be offset by some acquisitions and a very strong draft hand.
Jake Stringer, Joe Daniher and Jackson Ross of the Bombers celebrate a goal
(Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Melbourne is a perennial underachiever and while they have recruited quite well and look to have a balanced list, they need to find a way to address their habit of losing key and winnable games late in the season. It appears that a changed mindset is the key.
West Coast stumbled early in the finals for two years running, and its core A-graders are mostly veterans. It is perhaps unclear whether there is enough young emerging, exciting talent.
The Bulldogs went close to winning their final against St Kilda, and their best is strong. They look to have the most all-around, diverse and complete midfield in the competition, which Adam Treloar’s speed will add to. However, the bookends remain a concern.
All aboard
This group consists of the Gold Coast Suns, Fremantle and [/b]Carlton[/b]. Any one or more of these could catapult into finals contention.
In particular, Gold Coast and Fremantle have potential galore with young lists, rising star nominees and some of the competition’s most exciting, emerging talent such as Matt Rowell, Izak Rankine and Caleb Serong. In addition, both have tactically astute coaches and the home-ground factor is real. A bit of steadiness under fire and experience are the keys.
For Carlton the future must be now. They have been promising for a while, and have been mainly through drafting but also some astute trading and slowly stockpiling talent especially in key positions. Time for the green shoots to flower.
Choppy seas
Hawthorn are an intriguing story. Arguably, they are on the precipice of falling right way and looking at a total rebuild or somehow managing to stay in touch with the top eight. Their 2020 season was a very mixed bag. Retirements and Isaac Smith’s move to Geelong could be felt more deeply than anticipated.
Sydney are an interesting case. They do have some emerging talent but rely too heavily on Tom Papley for scoring. They are confronted with demographic issues of replacing their older brigade. Whether Lance Franklin can be the same force again is also a major question.
The fact that it took Adelaide until Round 15 in 2020 to record their first win might send shivers down the spines of supporters. However, there were signs of promise and their younger brigade including the likes of Elliot Himmelberg could take the next steps.
Early indications suggest a bleak year in 2021 for the Kangaroos. The loss of the coach, a radical de-listing exercise and the loss of experienced and talented players in Ben Brown and Shaun Higgins suggests that things have gone awry. However, the appointment of David Noble, who appears to be a mentoring coach in the mould of Chris Fagan, could be exactly what this young group needs.
The recruitment of Jaidyn Stephenson (the 2018 version) could be pivotal now and for the future. However, at the moment it’s not quite there for the Kangaroos.
https://www.theroar.com.au/2020/11/27/a-speculative-look-at-the-next-afl-season/
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Are we really that much younger than Geelong.
they will have 8 30 yr olds at the start of the season april. we have 5 plus dusty turning 30 in june.If they dont bring in Smith and Higgins then theres hardly any difference.
Like them we have 2 29 yr olds and 4 28 yr olds. I reckon we are only a season behind them if that when it comes to age of our better players.
Imo Selwood will be gone and Smith and Higgins are there for just the one yr to give em a final crack at a flag. If those three do retire next yr then they will have a similar age profile to us. It takes very little to alter the age demographic of any list.
Personally i would not have a problem bringing in a very good 28 -30+year old if it meant solving a list problem and perhaps giving us a tilt at a flag again. The obvious proviso is in doing it you stay heavily involved in the ND. This is something we have done well at in recent yrs.
With an ageing list and still in a shortening window im sure we will look down this path at some stage. As we all know It takes many yrs to build a premiership side clubs do all they can to eke out every opportunity at success while up..I dont think we will be any different.
If we gave up three first round picks for a player id be ropeable i reckon.Geelong have now backed themselves into a corner and need to go on and win it next yr they wanna hope they get plenty of seasons out of Cameron as well.
In all Honesty i would have liked Jeremy Cameron at Richmond but not at the price Geelong payed.
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David King believes Geelong is the number one destination club in the AFL right now.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2020/11/30/which-team-is-the-afls-number-one-destination-club/
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AFL’s biggest 2021 bolters predicted: Teams most likely to make giant jump
BEN WATERWORTH
FOX SPORTS
December 31, 2020
We’ve hit a point where giant top-four leapfrogs have become a trend.
After Brisbane’s remarkable rise from cellar dwellers to premiership contenders within 12 months caught many AFL fans by surprise, an under-fire Port Adelaide jumped from 10th in 2019 to minor premiers in 2021.
And recent history suggests a similar rise could happen again in 2021.
Research conducted in 2018 by foxfooty.com.au’s Max Laughton found that in the 16-team AFL era (1994 to 2010), 1.375 teams made the leap from outside the eight into next year’s top four. And from the 18-team era (2012 to 2019), the average remained at just over one.
It means most years, at least one team that missed the finals the previous season leapfrogs not only into the eight the next year, but also into the top four.
So which bottom 10 teams from 2020 loom as the most likely to make a giant jump next year?
Foxfooty.com.au ranks and assesses all the eligible clubs.
Likely to jump up into the Top 4 in 2021 ranking
1. Melbourne
2. Carlton
3. GWS
4. Sydney
5. Fremantle
6. Gold Coast
7. Hawthorn
8. Essendon
9. Adelaide
10. North Melbourne
Read Foxsports' reasoning at: https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-predictions-2021-finals-tips-bottom-10-to-top-four-melbourne-carlton-sydney-swans-to-jump/news-story/420d9413abfad3579a1b0d515e7a380e
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It goes the other way too. One top 4 club from the previous year crashes out of the Eight the following year. The Giants were that club in 2020, Melbourne in 2019, Adelaide in 2018 thanks to their camping trip ;D and the Dogs in 2017 after their last flag. Touchwood it isn't us and we instead three-peat :pray. That leaves one of Geelong, Port or Brisbane to miss the finals this year. Be hilarious if it's the Cats that crash in 2021 as they've gone all in again with their Dad's Army recruiting.
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Please be Geelong!!!!
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CATS KEEN TO EMBRACE PUBLIC HYPE FOR 2021
IT is only January but Geelong is already embracing the public’s expectations that it can go one better than 2020 following its off-season recruiting spree.
https://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/sport/afl/geelong-cats-2021-cats-keen-to-embrace-public-hype-for-2021/news-story/f758a330408d076acfc71b3be6761f9c
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Port is another club talking premierships in January while WA reporters asked Simpson if the Eagles are a top 2 team.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-port-adelaide-ken-hinkley-coaching-contract-david-koch-finals-or-bust/news-story/a075dbb414dd91b9dea7904f1de988ac
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When asked if he thought the Eagles were a top two team this year, Simpson admitted there’s too many variables to know at this stage of the year.
“I don’t know, it’s really hard to tell (if we’re a top two team this year). I’d love to think that’s the case, but it’s really difficult to project the draw, which team’s going to bounce up, injuries, anything off the field that’s happening,” he said.
Source: SEN (https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/01/12/eagles-coach-reflects-on-missed-opportunity-in-2020/)
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The latest premiership odds by the way:
$
Richmond 4
Geelong 5 .... in from 6 over past month
Brisbane 8
Port Adelaide 9
West Coast 9
W.Bulldogs 13 ... in from 15
Collingwood 14
St Kilda 17
GWS 17
Melbourne 26
Carlton 34
Fremantle 51
Hawthorn 51
Essendon 67
Adelaide 81
Gold Coast 81
Sydney 81
North Melb. 201
Source: TAB (https://www.tab.com.au/sports/betting/AFL%20Football/competitions/AFL%20Futures)
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Same as last year big talking Port and cats.
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Always interesting to compare the current odds to what they are after the first game of the season, teams tend to get written off by the "experts" pretty early following a poor performance.
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Im hoping we beat a melbourne based team at the mcg in next years grand final.
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Im hoping we beat a melbourne based team at the mcg in next years grand final.
Haters are running out of excuses aren't they?
I kind of hope it's Port or Brisbane so they can keep complaining that we've beaten another visiting team and none of them have been good for a sustained period etc
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Ourselves
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2021 top four predictions
zerohanger.com
15 January 2021
1. BRISBANE LIONS
Despite suffering some defeats at the end of the 2020 season, the Lions have invested heavily into new signings for the upcoming season and with the addition of Joe Daniher and Nakia Cockatoo – creating a more potent forward line. Added to the new talent coming through like Zac Bailey, they will be a force to be reckoned with.
2. GEELONG CATS
Perhaps the best team that didn’t win in 2020, the Cats have an impressive array of talent, including Coleman Medal Winners Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron. With the power of Shaun Higgins and the stamina of Isaac Smith, the Cats are perfectly placed to make a flag tilt.
3. PORT ADELAIDE
With a coach voted by his peers as the best in the business, and strong youngsters coming through the ranks, there is no reason that the strong and young Port Adelaide Team cannot give current premiers a run for their money and be successful in securing the premiership.
4. RICHMOND
Last year’s winners show no sign of slowing down, and despite some changes to the list, their clear cohesiveness as a team and ability to adapt and overcome make them a strong contender for the flag.
https://www.zerohanger.com/predictions-for-the-2021-afl-season-74914/
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Really gone out on a limb with those predictions :lol
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According to Nicky D. This is the best midfield in the comp.
(Adam) Treloar, (Marcus) Bontempelli, Jack Macrae, (Lachie) Hunter, (Bailey) Smith, (Josh) Dunkley and ‘Libba’ (Tom Liberatore).
I think ours compare well with this.
Dusty, Cotchin, Prestia, Edwards, Lambert, Graham
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Dangerfield (groin) and now Jeremy Cameron (hammy) injured down at the Cattery. Soft tissue injuries the risk with an old list.
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Only early February yet St Kilda players are already talking about making the GF.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/02/03/hopefully-a-grand-final-saints-eager-to-push-on-in-2021/
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HOW MUCH LONGER CAN GEELONG CONTEND BEFORE IT DROPS AWAY?
Garry Lyon believes the age profile of Chris Scott’s squad provides some sort of concern relating to the length of time they can continue to challenge at the top.
“They are going to have 10 players 30-plus when this season starts and then during the year (Gary) Rohan and (Mitch) Duncan will make it 12,” Lyon said on SEN Breakfast.
“They’ve gone and recruited older. I know age is just a number…
“They’ve been close. They keep putting themselves in a position but haven’t got there.
“How much longer can they maintain the ability to contend right at the pointy end before it drops away?
“All these star players are getting older. I’m not betting against them, but how long can they keep this going?”
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/02/04/how-much-longer-can-geelong-contend-before-it-drops-away/
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West Coast champion Peter Sumich believes the Eagles’ premiership window is beginning to close.
Sumich suggests the Eagles need to make the most of an ageing team, particularly after having sacrificed multiple first-round draft selections to secure Tim Kelly.
“They should win the premiership,” he told the TABtouch Lounge on SEN Track.
“They’ve gone and got Kelly, they’ve got superstars in every area - forward, back and mid.
"If they don’t win it this year it’ll be a big disappointment. I thought they should have won it last year, (but) they bowed out pretty quickly to Collingwood in that first final.”
With star forward Josh Kennedy in the twilight of his career, Sumich says the Eagles must strike now before facing the prospect of a rebuild.
“They’ve put all their eggs in one basket right now, trying to win one," he said.
“Josh Kennedy, Shannon Hurn and the like are going to retire in 12 or 24 months time, it’s their time now to win it.
“(Beyond that) they’ll have to look at rebuilding, and where they’re at with that, I don’t know … the young kids coming through haven’t played a heap."
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/02/13/is-west-coasts-premiership-window-closing/
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Not sure about winning it last year they don't like it when going gets tuff.
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The AFL hype ladder: Ranking the buzz around every club heading into 2021
Ben Waterworth and Matt Balmer
Fox Sports
February 14th, 2021 6:32 pm
Some clubs will enter the 2021 season with plenty of momentum yet, subsequently, grand expectations.
Others won’t have a lot of buzz around them, either due to questionable trade periods or a realisation they need to take stock before taking flight.
Foxfooty.com.au assesses every AFL club and ranks them 1-18 on the pre-season hype ladder.
1. Carlton
The rebuild phase is over – and now it is time to deliver on the expectations. Some fans thought 2020 might be the year the Blues jump up, so more will be expected of them this year. The Teague train needs to stop all stations to the top eight in 2021 – and many believe they have all tools and momentum to achieve that. If Sam Walsh continues to stamp his authority on the competition after being the No.1 selection just two years ago and Harry McKay proves to be a more difficult player to stop up forward, the Blues could live up to the hype.
2. Geelong
There’s certainly no excuses for Geelong to not be at the pointy end of the ladder this year, given the big inclusions across the off-season. While Gary Ablett has departed, Chris Scott’s side has added Jeremy Cameron, Isaac Smith and Shaun Higgins in the attacking half of the ground. It will give the Cats extra spark as they aim to lift the cup after finishing as the runners-up to Richmond in 2020. It also means not many pundits will be leaving Geelong out of their top four when they file their season predictions, With Tom Hawkins and Cameron close to goal, expect the Cats to have one of the league’s most potent attacks this year.
3. Richmond
Former Hawthorn player Ben Dixon’s outrageous call ahead of the 2019 Grand Final that Richmond would claim a three-peat of premierships was met with laughter. Since then, the Tigers have won two premierships and are on track for a third. Everything still went the Tigers’ way last year despite hubs, a global pandemic and off-field issues plagued the club. There will be plenty of focus on coach Damien Hardwick after his own decisions in recent months. But on-field, the Tigers still appear to be the best team in the competition.
4. Western Bulldogs
It’s one heck of a midfield they’ve put together, following the inclusion of Adam Treloar and the retainment of Josh Dunkley. The Bulldogs struggled in the early parts last year before flicking a switch and jumping into the finals. Marcus Bontempelli finished the season superbly, while Mitch Wallis stepped up in a new forward role. Get No. 1 pick Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Aaron Naughton to develop a strong forward 50 chemistry and the Dogs have all the tools to go deeper into September.
5. Brisbane Lions
Importantly Brisbane enters 2021 with a clean bill of health, perfectly placing it to progress to the last Saturday in September after falling a few hurdles short. The Lions again grew last season under Chris Fagan – and there is a lot to like about the side right across the ground. They’ve now got some key support for Eric Hipwood up forward, with Joe Daniher heading north from Essendon. Promisingly, tall has already made an impact in club scratch matches. If they can get it all to click inside 50, the Lions will be an even tougher team to stop, given their style of attacking football.
6. Port Adelaide
The Power, deservingly, were the minor premiers last season and saved Ken Hinkley’s job, which was set to come under scrutiny without a top eight finish. Port exceeded expectations as it banked wins and saw key players have career-best seasons. That was emphasised by Charlie Dixon’s marking ability close to goal, which was a real threat for opponents. Considering Port’s entire list is fully fit in the back-end of the pre-season, it’s looming like another big season for the club.
7. St Kilda
The Saints surprised many last season when they managed to not only reach the finals, but make it into the second week before being defeated by the eventual premiers. While they might not have the top talent like other contenders around them do, Brett Ratten has implemented a great game plan and their core group produce consistent, reliable footy. New co-captain Jack Steele was exceptional in 2020, while young trio Hunter Clark, Nick Coffield and Max King had their best seasons yet. With age on their side, there’s plenty for Saints fans to be excited about ahead of the season.
8. Fremantle
Under a new coach, the young Dockers players were awesome in the back-half of 2020, ending the season with an excellent percentage of 93.7. In a great sign of development, Justin Longmuir was happy to leave star Nat Fyfe resting forward for longer periods than in previous seasons under Ross Lyon. It meant Adam Cerra, Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong were exposed as genuine midfielders more often. If the young guns can hit the scoreboard more often this season, it’ll go a long way to getting the club close to the top eight.
9. Sydney Swans
10. Gold Coast Suns
11. West Coast Eagles
12. Melbourne
13. Collingwood
14. GWS Giants
15. Essendon
16. Adelaide Crows
17. Hawthorn
18. North Melbourne
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-afl-ladder-afl-fixture-and-results-expected-results-wins-loss-news-afl-hype-ladder/news-story/3b9a6d81b002f36754f9deb99403e0b9
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Heading into 2021 now and there’s one team screaming off the page as a Richmond-beater. They already have premiership success and have probably only one more chance to grab another piece of silverware.
That team is the West Coast Eagles.
https://www.theroar.com.au/2021/02/12/the-premiership-dark-horse-going-under-the-radar/
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Another veteran Cat injured.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/549767/star-cat-scratched-from-pre-season-as-fitness-battle-looms-for-r1
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Foxsport's "Pythagorean expectation" formula is predicting Brisbane to fall this year saying they overperformed last year. It also predicts Geelong to win more games in 2021 claiming claiming they underperformed in last year.
ps. For the record, this time last year they tipped us to win fewer games than we did:
The stat ... predicted Richmond to fall after winning 16 games in 2019 off a percentage of a 13.6-win team. They won 12.5 games, which is roughly like winning 16 games in a full season.
So no decline there, though we’d point out the Tigers certainly weren’t as dominant in the home and away season as most expected.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-preview-2021-ladder-predictions-pythagorean-wins-risers-and-fallers-teams-that-will-improve-and-decline-stats-analysis/news-story/cbd3462188270059874d845c5901308e
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RICHARDSON’S TOP SIX LOCKS, BOTTOM SIX AND FOUR CLUBS IN THE FINALS MIX
SEN
25 February 2021
Richmond great Matthew Richardson has listed his top six locks, the four clubs in the finals mix and the bottom six who are unlikely to play finals in 2021.
Richardson has reigning premiers Richmond, Geelong, West Coast, Port Adelaide, St Kilda and Brisbane finishing in the top six.
“They are almost certainties to play finals,” he told Sportsday.
The three-time All-Australian says the Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Collingwood and GWS will be in the mix to play finals.
Richardson also expects Carlton and Fremantle to improve this season.
“If Zac Williams comes in and plays well and (Adam) Saad in the back half, Carlton can really improve,” he said.
“As can Fremantle. I think they’re on the right track with their game style.”
The champion Tiger doesn’t expect Adelaide, Hawthorn, Sydney, Gold Coast, North Melbourne and Essendon to challenge for a top eight spot.
The Crows, Hawks, Swans, Suns, Kangaroos and Bombers all finished in the bottom six last season.
Top six locks: Richmond, Geelong, West Coast, Port Adelaide, St Kilda, Brisbane.
Four teams in the mix below them: Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Collingwood, GWS Giants.
Teams that will improve: Carlton, Fremantle.
Bottom six group who are unlikely to play finals: Adelaide, Hawthorn, Sydney, Gold Coast, North Melbourne and Essendon.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/02/24/richardsons-top-six-locks-bottom-six-and-four-clubs-in-the-finals-mix/
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10 AFL experts predict the 2021 premiers - and they struggled to split three clubs
Fox Footy experts predict who'll win the 2021 flag.
Ben Waterworth
Fox Sports
March 3rd, 2021 1:17 pm
Richmond is still the AFL team to beat in the AFL – but two fellow contenders loom as the Tigers’ biggest threats this year.
Foxfooty.com.au this week asked 10 Fox Footy experts for their 2021 premiership tips, with three clubs featuring prominently among the predictions.
Three analysts tipped Geelong to atone for its 2019 Grand Final loss to the Tigers and capitalise on an eye-catching trade period that saw it add Jeremy Cameron, Shaun Higgins and Isaac Smith to an already star-studded list.
Melbourne champion Garry Lyon said this season shapes as the Cats’ “last roll of the dice” – but “they might have got it just right” with their trading.
“There are big dogs that know their time is running out,” Lyon told foxfooty.com.au’s Tom Morris.
“Jeremy Cameron might just add extra.
“They weren’t far away (last year). They might get one more big crack at it.”
Four-time premiership Hawk Jordan Lewis added the Cats’ off-season acquisitions are “for the now and they complement their side well”.
However, the prospect of a Richmond three-peat – and fourth flag in five seasons – looms large.
It’s a feat former Hawthorn sharpshooter Ben Dixon boldly predicted prior to the 2019 Grand Final between the Tigers and the Giants, declaring Damien Hardwick’s men were “on a big ride here” and a win over the Giants would be “the first of three”.
Over two years later, Dixon’s tip, unsurprisingly, hasn’t changed.
“They’re going to prove I’m the biggest genius in football – the best kept secret in the AFL,” Dixon told foxfooty.com.au with tongue firmly in cheek.
Triple premiership forward Cameron Mooney is also in the Richmond camp – primarily because 17 other teams still have no answer to the Tigers’ most dominant player.
“I’m going to say Richmond because of Dusty Martin,” Mooney told foxfooty.com.au. “I just don’t think any team’s got anyone to stop him, until someone puts a legitimate tag on him.
“He’s the best player in the game. Does it mean he has the most consistent season? Probably not, compared to what he did in 2017. But he just builds and then he gets to the finals and he’s on another level to everybody else in the competition. He’s arguably the greatest finals player we’ve seen.
“Until someone or a team proves me wrong, or Richmond just takes the foot off the pedal, you’ve still got to go through Richmond to win it.”
Triple All-Australian Nick Dal Santo told foxfooty.com.au’s Matt Balmer: “To put it simply, someone has to catch them.
“The Tigers are out in front and they have been for four years really. It’s someone else’s responsibility to catch them to show us why the Tigers aren’t the best team anymore.”
However a few AFL greats were also bullish on the prospects of Port Adelaide, which last year surged into flag contention to capture the minor premiership and fell six points short of making a Grand Final.
In fact Adelaide legend Mark Ricciuto told foxfooty.com.au’s David Zita that if the Power had Port “put more attention into Dusty” last year, they would’ve won that preliminary final.
Ricciuto said the Power were his flag favourites at this stage, while Bulldogs games record-holder Brad Johnson said the Power “play the right brand of footy” and should get growth and improvement from their recruits to win the premiership.
Triple premiership Lion Jonathan Brown added: “They had really good momentum last year. Good veterans and blokes in the prime of the career. Charlie Dixon plays with the most presence. They play a fast brand of footy too.”
— with Tom Morris, David Zita and Matt Balmer
WHICH TEAM WINS THE 2021 AFL PREMIERSHIP?
Jonathan Brown: Port Adelaide
Nick Dal Santo: Richmond
Ben Dixon: Richmond
Brad Johnson: Port Adelaide
David King: Richmond
Jordan Lewis: Geelong
Garry Lyon: Geelong
Cameron Mooney: Richmond
Mark Ricciuto: Port Adelaide
Nick Riewoldt: Geelong
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-predictions-2021-fox-footy-experts-tip-who-wins-premiership-flag-richmond-odds-dustin-martin-geelong/news-story/002ad0804319baf83f4016b5e91541c8
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GARRY LYON'S TOP EIGHT "LOCKS" AND THE TEAMS MOST LIKELY TO JUMP INTO FINALS
BY SEN
3 March 2021
Garry Lyon has named the top eight teams from last year that he believes are “locks” to make it once again in 2021.
When asked on SEN Breakfast who he thought would fall out from last year’s finalists, Lyon said he hadn’t worked out his exact top eight just yet, but feels five teams are reasonably safe bets.
“I’ve got Richmond a lock, I’ve got Geelong a lock. I’ve got Port Adelaide a lock, I’ve got the Lions a lock, I’ve got the Saints a lock and the other three are up in the air,” Lyon said.
“I think the Eagles will make it, I think the (Dogs) will probably make it, I’d say Collingwood (is the most vulnerable).
“I said it the other day, I can’t work out what (Collingwood is) going to do. They may gather themselves and have another tilt or they might drop out, I don’t know the answer to that.”
Of the teams outside the eight, who is most like to jump into the eight?
“Freo, Carlton and Melbourne would be the ones. I like Freo,” Lyon added.
Tim Watson also answered the question, saying: “I think Carlton. They are primed”.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/03/03/garry-lyons-top-eight-locks-and-the-teams-most-likely-to-jump-into-finals/
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Saints half forward line looks pretty familiar
HF: J.Higgins 22 J.Battle 26 D.Butler 16
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Did Higgins & Butler ever play together in the ones? Feel Higgins came in when Butler first lost his spot but then think Rioli was also still injured from the '17 GF when Higgins debuted.... :shh
With the weight of expectation - wouldn't be surprised if Saints are a total flop... :shh :shh
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Club captains' 2021 predictions:
afl.com.au
10 March 2021
Which seven other clubs do you think can make this year's top eight?
17 – Brisbane, Geelong, Port Adelaide, Richmond
15 – West Coast, St Kilda
9 – Western Bulldogs
8 – Collingwood
4 – Greater Western Sydney
2 – Gold Coast
1 – Carlton, Essendon, Fremantle, Hawthorn, Melbourne
Which other club is most likely to reach the Grand Final?
7 – Richmond
5 – Brisbane
3 – Port Adelaide
2 – Geelong
1 – West Coast
(Four captains picked eventual premier Richmond in 2020).
https://www.afl.com.au/news/560597/grand-finalists-brownlow-top-eight-afl-captains-make-2021-call
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Montagna is tipping one of Gold Coast, Melbourne, Carlton or Fremantle to make the top 4.
Based on past years where bottom-10 teams that surged into the top four 12 months later:
2011: West Coast Eagles (16th to 4th)
2012: Adelaide (14th to 2nd)
2013: No change
2014: No change
2015: West Coast Eagles (9th to 2nd)
2016: Geelong (10th to 2nd) and GWS Giants (11th to 4th)
2017: Richmond (13th to 3rd)
2018: Collingwood (13th to 3rd) and Hawthorn (12th to 4th)
2019: Brisbane Lions (15th to 2nd)
2020: Port Adelaide (10th to 1st)
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-predictions-2021-ladder-tips-gold-coast-suns-carlton-collingwood-to-miss-finals-leigh-montagna-on-afl-360/news-story/9f450cfabebf7ec0aef578682ad832d9
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Not one 'journo' on the AFL website is tipping us to win the flag.
Premiers Runners-up Richmond's ladder pos.
Damian Barrett Port Adelaide Brisbane 3rd
Riley Beveridge Port Adelaide Geelong 3rd
Sarah Black Port Adelaide Richmond 2nd
Mitch Cleary Port Adelaide Brisbane 3rd
Cameron Noakes Brisbane Geelong 4th
Nathan Schmook Port Adelaide Richmond 1st
Callum Twomey Port Adelaide Geelong 3rd
Michael Whiting Geelong Brisbane 4th
https://www.afl.com.au/news/560486/crystal-ball-our-predictions-for-the-2021-afl-season-are-in
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RENDELL NAMES RICHMOND'S GREATEST CHALLENGER IN 2021
BY SEN
13 March 2021
Matt Rendell has named Port Adelaide as the biggest challenger who stands in the way of Richmond's quest to make it three premierships in a row.
The Power fell just short of making the Grand Final last season, bowing out to the Tigers by six points in last year's preliminary final.
Rendell said even though Port Adelaide squared off against last year's wooden spooners Adelaide in both of their pre-season matches, he was convinced they’d pose the biggest threat to Richmond’s recent premiership dominance.
“Port Adelaide look the most impressive, but I know they were playing Adelaide (in two pre-season matches in the last fortnight),” he said on SEN's Dwayne's World.
“(New recruit Orazio) Fantasia, wow. We know he was a good player but if you throw him in that team … and Aliir Aliir was best on ground (against Adelaide as well).
“Their trading and recruiting in the last five years has been the best in the competition by a million miles, Jason Cripps and his team have (done a great job) and they’ve put Port Adelaide in contention to win a flag.
“They just look fantastic, I reckon right now they’re the biggest challenger alongside Brisbane and Geelong.”
The Power begins their 2021 premiership season with a clash against North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium next Sunday.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/03/13/rendell-names-richmonds-greatest-challenger-in-2021/
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Who can derail the Tiger train in 2021?
Justin Chadwick
AAP
March 14, 2021
Could this be the year the Tiger train is finally derailed and Dustin Martin loses the 'S' on his chest?
Richmond's premiership credentials were heavily questioned last year after enduring a series of off-field dramas during hub life.
Skipper Trent Cotchin briefly contemplated leaving the Tigers' hub after his wife's infamous spa trip that broke the AFL's COVID protocols.
Richmond were fined $100,000 when Callum Coleman-Jones and Sydney Stack flagrantly exited the bubble for a boozy night out that included a strip club visit and ended with an early-morning fight outside a kebab shop.
Richmond's on-field dynasty looked set to crumble, especially away from their MCG fortress.
But by the end of grand final day - October 24 - normal order had been resumed at the Gabba, with the Tigers snaring their third premiership from the past four years.
Martin created history in the 31-point grand final win over Geelong by becoming the first player to win three North Smith medals.
It further cemented his reputation as the best big-game player of all time.
The 2017 Brownlow medallist is approaching his 30th birthday, but his four-goal effort in the grand final was proof that his star is still burning strong.
And his teammates don't show any obvious signs of slowing down either, with Richmond the early favourites to take home the flag again this year.
But the Tigers will face a stiff challenge from the young and the old.
Geelong, who some fans are already labelling Dad's Army, should have at least one more year in their premiership window after adding former GWS spearhead Jeremy Cameron to their ranks.
West Coast, whose list is also ageing at a worrying rate, will fancy their chances if ruckman Nic Naitanui stays fit and Elliot Yeo can overcome a worrying case of osteitis pubis.
Brisbane and Port Adelaide represent the changing of the guard.
The Lions have threatened for the past two years, and the addition of former Bombers forward Joe Daniher could prove to be the final piece of the puzzle that drives them towards premiership success.
The youthful Power spent all of last season on top of the ladder, and will still be stewing over their heartbreaking six-point loss to Richmond in the preliminary final.
The Tigers were able to overcome their off-field woes last year to take home the grand prize, but will the accumulation of dramas derail them in 2021?
Troubled 20-year-old Stack spent time in a Perth prison over summer after breaking WA's COVID laws. He will face court on March 25 for his sentencing.
And coach Damien Hardwick's split with wife Danielle - and subsequent new relationship with a member of the club's commercial sales team - has intensified the spotlight glare at Richmond.
As for the coaches in 2021 - as usual the odds are high at least one won't see out the season.
With Eddie McGuire no longer Collingwood president, the heat will be on Nathan Buckley to produce the goods in the final year of his current contract.
That will be no easy feat following Collingwood's disastrous fire sale that saw Adam Treloar, Jaidyn Stephenson and Tom Phillips exit on bargain terms.
Carlton coach David Teague has only been at the helm for one-and-a-half seasons, but the pressure is already on him to end the club's seven-year finals drought.
And Melbourne coach Simon Goodwin, who led the Demons to the preliminary final in 2018, may face the axe if the club misses the finals for a third straight year.
As for the wooden spoon - North Melbourne and Adelaide appear to be the early 'favourites' following their diabolical 2020 campaigns.
Fans, players, and the league will be hoping for a season without hubs, but that could prove to be wishful thinking given the recent spate of minor COVID-19 outbreaks that have been difficult to avoid for any great length of time.
https://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/afl/who-can-derail-the-tiger-train-in-2021-ng-s-2053345
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Garry Lyon’s Top 8
Geelong
Port Adelaide
Richmond
Brisbane
West Coast
Western Bulldogs
St Kilda
Collingwood
Lyon added: “Port and Geelong to play off in the Grand Final, that’s the way I’m reading it.
“I’m leaving the Tigers out only because I just want to be a bit different.
“History tells me that it is near on impossible to do. I’m going with history. Winning three in a row is rare.
Tim Watson’s Top 8
Richmond
Port Adelaide
Geelong
St Kilda
Brisbane
West Coast
Western Bulldogs
Carlton
“I’ve looked at Richmond. The only thing that will stop them is the desire and an injury to Dustin Martin,” he said.
“Heaven forbid, I do no want this to happen, but if something were to happen to him and he were to be ruled out for the season, that changes them completely in terms of their favouritism to win the flag.
“I’ve got Richmond winning it.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/03/14/lyon-and-watson-explain-their-top-8-selections-for-2021/
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Jonathan Brown & Nick Riewoldt on Fox Footy last night:
As Richmond seeks to emulate the 2001-2003 Brisbane team by winning a third consecutive flag this season (and four premierships in five seasons), Brown said that hunger would not be an issue, based on his experiences with that Lions team.
“When you taste success, it’s amazing. People talk about hangovers - I reckon it’s the opposite. When you’ve tasted success, you know how good it is, you want to experience it more. That’s what we felt [at Brisbane] ... and I think that’s how Richmond feels,” Brown said.
“Richmond will know that they’re on the cusp of history.”
Brown nominated Port Adelaide as the side best-placed to challenge Richmond for the premiership.
“I think Port Adelaide can do it. I’d probably have Port Adelaide and Richmond at the top level at the moment,” said Brown.
“I think they’re rounded out nicely. I think Aliir Aliir’s a good addition, just helps their intercept marking game ... I think [Orazio] Fantasia’s a really good pick-up.
“I think, at his best, [Charlie] Dixon if he’s healthy, is the most dominant presence in the competition. So I think they’ve got a lot of elements.”
However, Brown’s Fox Footy colleague and contemporary key forward champion Nick Riewoldt felt differently.
Riewoldt nominated the Cats as the team to rival Richmond.
“I think Geelong will be thereabouts again. I love what they’ve done in terms of doubling down [in recruiting senior players], I admire it. I think it’s brave, I think it’s bold,” he said.
But while Riewoldt said he had “jumped around a little bit” on the question of who would take the 2021 premiership, he said a team still had to take the crown from the Tigers and beat their system.
“No one’s been able to take their system down,” he said.
Source: The Age (https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/martin-will-finish-in-top-10-greatest-players-brown-20210315-p57aym.html)
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The seven AFL teams that can win the premiership in 2021
Rohan Connolly
ESPN
17 March 2021
I can hear you already. "You've got to be kidding," and "what are you talking about, Connolly".
Sorry, folks, it's water off a duck's back these days. One, because I get that regularly from my own loved ones. Two, because I've done a lot of these things now. And three, because I defy a single person to attempt the exercise of putting together a predicted AFL ladder and not have a few miscalculations.
Particularly this year. I like to think I'm a pretty conservative tipster. In virtually every season I can recall, I've never felt there were more than three, or at tops, four sides legitimately capable of winning the premiership.
But in 2021, I have seven who I firmly believe all have realistic flag claims. That says enough about how tight this competition is now.
"Okay, smart guy. Who are they?" you snap, cynically.
Well thanks for asking. They are...
RICHMOND
Anyone who expects the Tigers to have had their fill in 2021, after three premierships in four years, might be sorely disappointed. This is a club which has acquired a taste for winning after nearly 40 years in the wilderness, is still very much in the sweet spot in terms of age and experience demographics (only the fourth-oldest list and the fourth-most seasoned), and perhaps, most importantly, gets it done more on the basis of a very successful and as yet unsurpassed style of game rather than on simple individual talent. Not that there isn't a heap of that - some of which still isn't appreciated fully beyond names like Dustin Martin, Trent Cotchin, Jack Riewoldt and Tom Lynch. Richmond's capacity to introduce lesser lights into the mix and have them comfortably fulfill their roles has been outstanding. And the likes of Sydney Stack, Jake Aarts, Mabior Chol and Jack Ross, still to get their premiership fill, should keep selection pressure on the incumbents high.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
I've got the Dogs at least reaching the Grand Final this year, and who knows from there? It's hardly a big call, either, given they've been finalists the past two seasons, but now I think they clearly have the competition's best and deepest midfield group, a very underrated and creative defence, and a star in Adam Treloar. But that's not all. There's also important ruck back-up in Stefan Martin, another handy forward in Mitch Hannan and a hugely-rated key forward in Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, capable of offering immediate support to Aaron Naughton and Josh Bruce on the goalkicking front. Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae, Treloar, Bailey Smith, Lachie Hunter, Tim Liberatore and Josh Dunkley represents some sort of on-ball division, and that's just the leads. In terms of pure talent, this is a markedly more complete lineup than the one which won the 2016 premiership.
GEELONG
The Cats just keep loading up on established talent in trying to nab that elusive flag, and in 2021, Jeremy Cameron, Shaun Higgins and Isaac Smith are as good a trio as any club has landed in one hit in the modern era. Will it make the difference? Every chance. Yes, Geelong will soon have a dozen players aged 30 or older, but that will comprise -- in Tom Hawkins, Mark Blicavs, Patrick Dangerfield, Mitch Duncan and Sam Menegola -- five of the top six in last year's best and fairest, so their veterans are hardly on the slide. This is a team which led last year's Grand Final by 22 points a tick before half time, was the highest-scoring team, the most efficient, and had the fourth-best defence. Perhaps pace is an issue, but Smith and a couple of the Cats' kids can help fix that easily enough. As always, they're a big chance.
WEST COAST
Some observers are a little concerned by the Eagles' age and durability. I'm not one of them. Both St Kilda and Geelong have older lists, for starters. As this season starts, West Coast will have only five players older than 30. One of them, Nic Naitanui, just won a best and fairest. Another, Josh Kennedy, won the club goalkicking for a seventh occasion. Another, Luke Shuey, is a Norm Smith medallist and probably West Coast's second-best player behind Nic Nat. Where does the improvement come? I like the addition of former Giant Zac Langdon to an already potent forward mix. Beyond that, it's as much about (fingers crossed) not having to endure hubs again, and avoiding the odd mental lapse which has seen the Eagles surrender a top four berth in both the past two years, which significantly dented their flag chances.
PORT ADELAIDE
Power fans might rightfully look at this and ask: "Why do you have us slipping?" The answer is that while I might superficially, I won't be at all surprised if Port wins its second AFL title. So tight is this year's flag race it might well be a handful of points which spell the difference between a flag or Grand Final berth, and a finish in the bottom half of the eight. After all, the Power did spend an entire season on top of the AFL ladder and lost a preliminary final last year to the eventual premier by just six points. I like their additions, too. Aliir Aliir gives Port that extra big defensive body to help combat the key forward tandems of the likes of Richmond and West Coast. Orazio Fantasia, provided he can stay on the park, kicks goals and is all class. The only "if" I have is can veterans like Travis Boak, Charlie Dixon and Tom Rockliff deliver the same sorts of quality seasons they did in 2020?
ST KILDA
This flag fancy might surprise a few. It certainly banks on a few "ifs" on the durability front, and it could be a bumpy start for the Saints given fitness concerns over Rowan Marshall, Dan Hannebery, James Frawley and Jarryn Geary, Max King's tangle with an errant golf ball, Ben Paton's loss for the year, with Paddy Ryder on leave. That said, this is a marathon, not a sprint. The success of last year's five senior imports indicated this is a group that has a buzz around it, and to that end, I think the latest inclusions in Brad Crouch and Jack Higgins could fit in similarly well. St Kilda took the game on admirably last year, and after 12 months now under Brett Ratten's tutelage, you'd expect game style to be down pat now. They also knocked over two top four teams in Richmond and Port Adelaide last season, and lost to another, in Brisbane, by just two points. Don't sell the Saints' chances short.
BRISBANE
Yes, the Lions blew an opportunity to win a premiership in their own backyard last October. But they also became only the second team to beat Richmond in a final in a dozen attempts over the last four years, pretty emphatic evidence they can win when the heat is on. As Geelong has proved, you simply need to keep knocking on the door, and despite a couple of finals flops, the Lions have nonetheless won 30 of 39 regular season games in the past two years and have a coach in Chris Fagan the players clearly love. Sure, they've taken a calculated punt on injury-prone Joe Daniher, but the thought of him fit and firing alongside Eric Hipwood, with Charlie Cameron at both their feet, does make an already effective enough forward mix look even more potent. The Lions have done their apprenticeship. there's no reason they can't frank that graduation in 2021 with a flag.
https://www.espn.com/afl/story/_/id/31071898/afl-rohan-connolly-seven-teams-win-premiership-2021
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Richmond must rise above recruiting arms race to create history
By Ronny Lerner
Independent Australia
17 March 2021
Despite rampant recruiting by last year's AFL finalists, it’s going to take a huge effort to prevent the Tigers from winning four flags in five years, writes Ronny Lerner.
For the third time in four years, we head into a new Australian Football League (AFL) season asking the question: “Can Richmond be stopped?”
To think that since the start of 2017 the only thing that has come between the Tigers and the premiership cup has been a freakish individual performance by a 211-centimetre-tall Texan by the name of Mason Cox, is sobering, to say the least.
The planets certainly aligned on the preliminary final night in 2018 when Richmond happened to produce arguably the worst performance of their current golden run to ensure Collingwood safe passage to the grand final that year.
But outside of that blip on the radar, finals time has largely belonged to Richmond coach Damien Hardwick’s men. Even when Brisbane landed one on their chin in last year’s qualifying final, Richmond dusted themselves off and overcame St Kilda, Port Adelaide and Geelong in consecutive weeks to make it back-to-back flags for the club for the first time in 46 years.
In fact, never in the Tigers’ 114-year association with the VFL/AFL have they ever won three premierships in four years. This is certainly a special time in the club’s history and this is certainly a special team.
Richmond still has a large core of players (17 all up) who featured in the 2017 grand final. These players are not only still part of its best 22, or thereabouts, but they also contribute at a high level — including one of the greatest players of the modern era, Dustin Martin, who claimed an unprecedented third Norm Smith Medal last year for best afield in the grand final against the Cats.
The Tigers will be hard to stop this season purely by virtue of the fact that their superstar No. 4 is still running around at the peak of his powers.
So, who are the contenders that might be able to stop Richmond from claiming an historic "three-peat" in 2021?
The obvious one that stands out is Geelong.
The Cats have pushed all their chips into the middle of the table after recruiting former Greater Western Sydney (GWS) Coleman medallist Jeremy Cameron, along with silky veterans Shaun Higgins and Isaac Smith from North Melbourne and Hawthorn respectively.
Chris Scott’s men looked to be on the verge of winning the 2020 flag when they led Richmond by 21 points late in the second quarter, but just as they did in the 2019 preliminary final after trailing by the exact same margin, the Tigers ran over the top of the Cats.
As good as Geelong is, the one thing that has got in the way of the team winning its first premiership since 2011 has been Richmond in recent times.
The Tigers have become the Cats’ arch-nemesis, beating them in six of their last seven meetings, including three-from-three in finals. But there’s no doubt that the inclusions of Cameron, Higgins and Smith give Geelong a different look and a huge opportunity to finally get over the yellow-and-black hump.
The Brisbane Lions certainly can’t be discounted from this discussion either. Since making consecutive top-two finishes – after the home-and-away season at least – and reaching their first preliminary final last year since 2004, coach Chris Fagan has this team primed and right in the sweet spot of premiership contention.
With a star-studded midfield led by reigning Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale, a rock-solid backline spearheaded by All-Australian defender Harris Andrews and now a forward line that features former Essendon star Joe Daniher – and potentially talented ex-Cat Nakia Cockatoo – the Lions are locked, loaded and ready for a genuine tilt at the flag.
And then there’s Port Adelaide, who fell six agonising points short of a grand final appearance last year following their thrilling loss to Richmond in the penultimate weekend of the season.
Like the Lions, the Power’s list was already brimming with talent heading into the off-season and then they went and added gun ex-Sydney defender Aliir Aliir as well as classy goalsneak Orazio Fantasia from Essendon.
Finalists St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs (Doggies) have also loaded up on talent since the 2020 season finished. St Kilda picked up former Adelaide ball magnet Brad Crouch, ex-Richmond goalsneak Jack Higgins and Mason Wood from North Melbourne, as well as veteran key position players James Frawley and Shaun McKernan from Hawthorn and Essendon respectively.
Meanwhile, the Doggies added gun former Collingwood midfielder Adam Treloar and ex-Brisbane ruckman Stefan Martin to their engine room. They now boast arguably the best on-ball brigade in the competition, which also features Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae, Tom Liberatore, Lachie Hunter, Bailey Smith and Josh Dunkley.
West Coast Eagles can’t be dismissed either. With a large chunk of their 2018 premiership side still on the list, 12 games at Optus Stadium and the recruitment of Alex Witherden (ex-Brisbane) and Zac Langdon (ex-GWS), they look as though they still have at least one more genuine crack at a flag left in them.
Interestingly, while most of last year’s finalists have got themselves involved in an arms race by adding players from other clubs to their list in a desperate bid to catch up to the Tigers, the reigning premiers have done no such thing.
In fact, Richmond was rather quiet on the recruiting front. So, will it be a case of them standing still and being overtaken by their replenished rivals? Or are the Tigers just that good that they are going to back in their current crop and get extra improvement from within by way of unheralded youngsters?
Time will tell. But one thing is for certain, with the man they call "Dusty" showing no signs of slowing down, it’s going to take a hell of an effort to prevent the Tigers from making it four flags in five years and joining the pantheon of the greatest ever VFL/AFL teams.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/richmond-must-rise-above-recruiting-arms-race-to-create-history,14900
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In fact, just four teams have won premierships after a 0-2 start in the entire history of AFL/VFL football, with North Melbourne's side of 1999 the only team to do so in the past 45 years.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/568731/the-dire-predicament-facing-four-finals-contenders-in-round-two
Odds against the loser of Geelong vs Brisbane.
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We're 2nd on the ladder :thumbsup.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ExjuURDUcAE6u_p?format=jpg&name=large)
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Port going hard at the blunt end as usual...
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Ladder after Round 3. We're currently 6th.
(https://scontent.fmel7-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/p843x403/168839740_4590732087609109_405164104180778218_n.png?_nc_cat=106&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=vXguTioR3qYAX8WTIfE&_nc_ht=scontent.fmel7-1.fna&_nc_tp=30&oh=934256bc7f02963bef15a53a8c3b0f3c&oe=608FB215)
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AFL 2021: Power Rankings, after Round 3, AFL analysis, stats, every team ranked, flag contenders, ladder, top eight, news
Max laughton
Fox Sports
April 7th, 2021
1. WESTERN BULLDOGS (3-0, 181.6%) ............ Last week: 3 (up two)
2. WEST COAST EAGLES (2-1, 124%) .............. Last week: 5 (up three)
3. RICHMOND (2-1, 103.7%) .......................... Last week: 1 (down two)
The Tigers will be just fine. As Damien Hardwick said post-match, they always have a stumble or two like this - see the Hawthorn game last year, the St Kilda game in 2017, or really the first half of the 2019 season. And this was a bad time to catch Sydney because coaches haven’t had the chance to figure them out yet; it takes time to work out what the season’s big bolter is doing, never mind how to stop it. We suspect if you played that game again in Round 17, it would look very different. We’re also not going to be worried if Richmond loses in Adelaide on Friday night; as we saw last year, the Power know how to play them close, or even beat them.
4. PORT ADELAIDE (2-1, 129%) ....................... Last week: 2 (down two)
5. SYDNEY SWANS (3-0, 142.9%) .................... Last week: 9 (up four)
6. MELBOURNE (3-0, 137.2%) ......................... Last week: 6
7. GEELONG CATS (2-1, 97.6%) ...................... Last week: 4 (down three)
8. BRISBANE LIONS (1-2, 88.8%) ................... Last week: 8
Full article: https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-power-rankings-after-round-3-afl-analysis-stats-every-team-ranked-flag-contenders-ladder-top-eight-news/news-story/bc716e9d41ed129710538b58e07fc720
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We're still in the top 8:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EyrsV-ZWYAAURrT?format=jpg&name=large)
https://twitter.com/zerohanger/status/1381176099586109442
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And we’d currently be getting pick 9 from Geelong.....
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By my reckoning our current draft picks are:
9, 11, 26, 29, 42, 47
:shh
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We’re four rounds in, but Leigh Montagna believes six sides are ‘already a lock to play finals’
Ben Waterworth
Fox Sports
April 12th, 2021[/i]
It’s only Round 4, but St Kilda champion Leigh Montagna believes six teams that occupy top-eight spots after four weeks “are a lock” to play finals in 2021.
The undefeated and in-form Western Bulldogs sit on top of the ladder with a healthy percentage of 171.1 per cent, followed by fellow 4-0 teams Melbourne and Sydney.
Port Adelaide and Adelaide sit fourth and fifth respectively having had just one loss so far this season, while West Coast, Carlton and Richmond round out the top eight on percentage as three of six teams with a 2-2 record.
Only one 4-0 team has missed the finals in the past decade: Essendon in 2012 (and technically in 2013, when the Bombers were excluded due to the supplements saga). On average over the past five years, 5.8 teams that were in the top eight after four rounds ended up playing finals.
Speaking on Fox Footy’s First Crack on Sunday night, Montagna believes from what he’s seen so far this season, 75 per cent of the current top eight teams will still be there by premiership season’s end.
“I think we can only go by what we’re seeing with our eyes, not our perceptions,” Montagna told First Crack.
“I believe in most of them. I think the top eight is starting to take shape and six of those eight teams will play finals.”
Montagna declared the Bulldogs, Demons, Swans and Power would hold onto top-eight spots, while West Coast and Richmond would also make finals.
The dual All-Australian said the Blues and Crows “aren’t locked” for finals yet before adding: “I think those other six teams are already a lock to play finals.”
But dual premiership Kangaroo David King believes the top eight is far from secured.
“We keep saying that after six to eight weeks, it’s pretty much locked in for the end of season. Maybe one change, maybe not, but that’s what history tells us,” King told Fox Footy’s First Crack.
“Right now I think the ladder lies.”
King’s biggest query was Sydney, which has been the darlings of the competition to date with four straight wins over Brisbane, Adelaide, Richmond and Essendon.
With one of the youngest lists in the competition, King questioned whether the Swans had the stamina to play at such a high standard for a whole season.
“There are a lot of kids in that team that are going to get to a point at the end of the year when they’re going to fatigue,” King told Fox Footy.
But both Montagna and former Hawthorn sharpshooter Ben Dixon said they’d seen enough to suggest the Swans had the personnel and game plan to reach finals in 2021.
“They reset with the kids that have come through and you’ve got to remember they finished 15th on the ladder (in 2020) and had a percentage of 95 – no team’s done that,” Dixon said.
“The key indicator for me is their turnover game. They’re the best in the comp.”
Montagna added: “We talk a lot about their kids, but they’ve got a lot of players in their sweet spot – (Callum) Mills, (Tom) Papley, (Dane) Rampe, George Hewett – as well as the veterans who are still playing really good footy. I think the combination of all three sets them up to play finals.”
Of the teams outside the top eight, Montagna said he still had faith in Geelong, despite its early 2-2 record.
“I think Geelong are playing for a marathon not a sprint,” he said.
“I know they’ve started wobbly and a bit slow to get out of the blocks, but for them it was a slow start to the pre-season because of the year they had last year, an ageing group – I think they’ll be peaking at the back-end of the year.
“I’m still pretty confident Geelong play finals.”
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-ladder-2021-finals-predictions-leigh-montagna-tips-six-of-current-top-eight-can-play-finals-geelong-cats/news-story/ea5ea4d4ee07c2757bb47f27de930285
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A top six has emerged in the AFL pecking order, then a muddled mess: Power Rankings
1. WESTERN BULLDOGS (4-0, 171.1%) ....... Last week: 1
2. PORT ADELAIDE (3-1, 122.5%) ............... Last week: 4 (up two)
3. RICHMOND (2-2, 102.2%) ...................... Last week: 3
As everyone has said since Friday night: we’re not worried about the Tigers. They’ll still play finals, and probably make the top four too. They’re not at their best right now but they don’t have to be, and they nearly pinched a win on the road against Port Adelaide despite that. We imagine Richmond fans have gotten to a point where they basically ignore the ladder for the first half of the season, knowing their team will get there eventually. That’s a very healthy way to live as a fan.
4. WEST COAST EAGLES (2-2, 110.6%) ....... Last week: 2 (down two)
5. MELBOURNE (4-0, 138.2%) .................... Last week: 6 (up one)
6. SYDNEY SWANS (4-0, 133.5%) ............... Last week: 5 (down one)
7. ST KILDA (2-2, 83.5%) .......................... Last week: 10 (up three)
8. GEELONG CATS (2-2, 90.7%) ................. Last week: 7 (down one)
9. BRISBANE LIONS (1-3, 85.8%) ................ Last week: 8 (down one)
10. CARLTON (2-2, 103%) ........................... Last week: 11 (up one)
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-power-rankings-after-round-4-afl-analysis-stats-every-team-ranked-and-analysed-contenders-ladder-top-eight/news-story/7120139d5dcbe856fa24a0f812e44095
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Ourselves
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Ourselves
Have to agree with you if we can build slowly adapt to the rules and clean up our game I'll back us in anyone.
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RICHO FORECASTS FINALS HOPEFULS AFTER FOUR ROUNDS
SEN
15 April 2021
Western Bulldogs and Melbourne
“I think the Bulldogs are top four and I’ll say top six for Melbourne.”
Sydney
“Still waiting a little bit there on Sydney. They’ll play finals, fourth to eighth.”
“It’s real, but can they sustain that with a young team?”
Port Adelaide
“Zak Butters and Xavier Duursma are injured, young kids that add vibrancy to the team.
“They’re not going to lose many games at home, if any.
“If they go 50-50 on the road, they’re still going to be pushing top four.”
West Coast
“You can get them in some areas then other days you just think they’re unbeatable.
“If they get the game on their terms, they’re a top-two team I reckon, but if you can get it to ground level you can really worry them, like St Kilda did in the second half last week.
“They’ll play finals because they’re not going to lose many at Optus Stadium.
“They need to get (Luke) Shuey and (Elliot) Yeo back.”
Carlton
“At the start of the year you’d think Carlton are a 50-50 type team. They could finish anywhere from 6 to 12.”
Richmond
“Richmond still play finals.”
Geelong
“They’ve got to get everyone back. They’ve got to get Jeremy Cameron out there.
“They’ve got nine games in Geelong, they’ll probably win all of those so they’ll play finals.”
St Kilda
“Big win Thursday night and they’re back on track, but I think Richmond will win.
“50-50 for them to play finals.”
Essendon and Brisbane
“Brisbane have to win to stay in contention and if they lose they’re in a bit of strife.
“If they (the Lions) lose this week, yes I’m worried. Lachie Neale is battling, the forward line is not clicking, Charlie Cameron is struggling, (Eric) Hipwood has had one good game, (Joe) Daniher is going ok, but they need to just get in sync forward of centre.
“If Essendon wins it’s a positive but I don’t think they’re ready to play finals.
“If they (the Bombers) finish anywhere from 8-12 that’s a pretty good result for them."
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/04/14/richardson-forecasts-finals-hopefuls-after-four-rounds/
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We're up to 5th.
(http://oneeyed-richmond.com/images/ladder/Ladder2021R5.png)
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WHATELEY AND KING RANK THEIR TOP FOUR SEEDS AFTER ROUND 5
Alex Zaia
SEN
19 April 2021
Gerard Whateley and David King have named their top four seeds in the AFL after Round 5.
These are the four teams they have the most confidence in going forward, coupled with what the teams have shown so far.
"We've both got five teams we think can win it (the flag)," King told SEN's Whateley.
See their seedings below:
King:
1. Western Bulldogs
King praised the Bulldogs earlier on SEN’s Whateley.
2. Richmond
"It’s not a move backwards for the Tigers, it’s just that the Dogs are playing the best of anyone right now.
"In a fortnight’s time that form gets franked against the Tigers."
3. Port Adelaide
"They’re the great seduces, but I do think they’ve got such depth, spark and talent – wildcard talent – in that forward line."
4. Melbourne
"Because the captain (Max Gawn) is now endorsed as the man. In the crunch, I am your man.
"It just formats the structure of a football club when the captain kicks a goal from 50m out to give you a two-goal buffer."
Whateley:
1. Richmond
"I just won’t hear of Richmond not being one.
"Because of that first hint of, ‘alright, let’s assess Richmond after two losses on the trot’ and they just destroyed St Kilda.
"It’s easy to overlook just how good Richmond were – their system is awesome and it was the ruthlessness."
2. Port Adelaide
"1 v 2 played each other last week in Round 4 on the Friday night.
"I’ve got Port at two."
3. Western Bulldogs
"It’s just exhilarating the way that they play."
4. West Coast
"I’m not unconditional on West Coast, but I love what they do at Optus (Stadium)."
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/04/19/whateley-and-king-rank-their-top-four-seeds-after-round-5/
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Are there even eight teams worthy of the top eight right now?
Max Laughton
Fox Sports
April 20th, 2021
1. WESTERN BULLDOGS (5-0, 178.6%) ................ Last week: 1
2. PORT ADELAIDE (4-1, 125.8%) ........................ Last week: 2
3. RICHMOND (3-2, 124.9%) .............................. Last week: 3
If you’re going to give a performance as poor as what St Kilda did on Thursday night, Richmond is always going to take advantage. In one brutal stretch across the second and third quarters, the Tigers won 21 of 22 clearances, scoring 39 points from stoppages and building a huge lead. We can’t wait for the Anzac Eve game against the Demons; it’s just the right time for the unbeaten Dees to get a true test, and the Tigers are still as tough as test as you’ll get.
4. MELBOURNE (5-0, 147.6%) ..................... Last week: 5 (up one)
5. WEST COAST EAGLES (3-2, 115.2%) ........ Last week: 4 (down one)
6. SYDNEY SWANS (4-1, 127.2%) ................ Last week: 6
7. BRISBANE LIONS (2-3, 101.8%) .............. Last week: 9 (up two)
8. GEELONG CATS (3-2, 99.7%) ................... Last week: 8
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-power-rankings-after-round-5-afl-analysis-stats-every-team-ranked-ladder-top-eight-predictions/news-story/288c5701bebc038770adaf4c04846b6c
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CORNES NAMES THE FOUR TEAMS THAT CAN WIN THE FLAG AND THE ONE IN THE MIX
Kane Cornes has gone through what he has learned after five rounds of footy, suggesting the top eight is set bar one change.
Cornes also believes there are currently only four teams who can win the flag, on current form, with a fifth team in the mix if they get healthy.
2020 Preliminary Finalists Geelong and Brisbane are not among his contenders as it stands.
“My biggest thing is just that I’m not sure how many good teams there are. I’m not even sure if there’s a top eight,” Cornes told SEN SA Breakfast.
“I think there’s a top six. How many teams can genuinely win the premiership after Round 5? There’s probably four or five.
“The Western Bulldogs can no doubt win it, Melbourne with what we’re seeing can win it and they have enough good players and are playing a premiership style of football, they’ll be tested throughout the year.
“Port Adelaide can definitely win it, Richmond can win it and then maybe West Coast, but who knows about West Coast away from home with an ageing list and with their injuries they’ve got.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/04/20/cornes-names-the-four-teams-that-can-win-the-flag-and-the-one-in-the-mix/
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Gerard Whateley and David King have named their top four seeds in the AFL after Round 6.
David King
1. Western Bulldogs
"The Dogs’ game plan disarms you. I think that’s a massive weapon.
"If you can maintain that handball game, you will run riot. They’ve got a group of midfielders no one else has got."
2. Port Adelaide
"Port Adelaide are just ruthless.
"They’re ruthless off the back of a tough Preliminary Final loss. That can be a powerful thing."
3. Melbourne
"I think the top three are a clear top three."
4. Richmond
"There’s a bit of a gap back to the Tigers. We haven’t said that for a while."
Gerard Whateley
1. Port Adelaide
“Their footy is the most complete, it’s the most ruthless.
"I think Port’s best is best (in the competition)."
2. Melbourne
"Structurally, it all makes sense."
3. Western Bulldogs
"I’ve got Melbourne at two and the Bulldogs at three because Melbourne have beaten Richmond and the Bulldogs are about to take their turn.
"If the Bulldogs beat Richmond, then I’ve got to work out next week the margins for all that."
4. Richmond
“I’ve got Richmond at four because they’ve lost to Port Adelaide and Melbourne.
“It could even be more adventurous, but I’m not dropping them out.”
(https://instagram.fmel7-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t51.2885-15/e35/p1080x1080/177457867_933196370749678_4909340678930284610_n.jpg?tp=1&_nc_ht=instagram.fmel7-1.fna.fbcdn.net&_nc_cat=1&_nc_ohc=hX7vPh8XWDkAX_x2j5u&edm=AIQHJ4wAAAAA&ccb=7-4&oh=b607592abb09eda8beb580b747d95140&oe=60AB2B01&_nc_sid=7b02f1)
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/04/26/whateley-and-king-rank-their-top-four-seeds-after-round-6/
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Last clubs that have started the season 6-0:
2017: Adelaide (runners-up)
2021: Western Bulldogs (TBC), Melbourne (TBC)
https://www.afl.com.au/news/603146/is-it-the-dogs-or-dees-flag-to-lose-the-history-of-6-0-starts
An Omen? :shh
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When do we worry about Tigers?
Power Rankings after round 6
Max Laughton
Fox Sports
April 27th, 2021
1. WESTERN BULLDOGS (6-0, 175.3%) ................ Last week: 1
2. PORT ADELAIDE (5-1, 136.3%) ........................ Last week: 2
3. MELBOURNE (6-0, 150.7%) ............................. Last week: 4 (up one)
4. RICHMOND (3-3, 113%) ................................. Last week: 3 (down one)
We’re still not worried. It’s a bit weird that the Tigers were beaten at their own game by the Demons - they scored 11 points from midfield turnovers, while Melbourne scored 41 points, which was basically the margin in the game. Plus, when you think of a wet night at the MCG, you think of this Richmond team dominating. But they didn’t, and that’s fine. And we won’t be worried if the Tigers drop to 3-4, or heaven forbid 3-5, with games against the Bulldogs and Geelong to come. It’s all about whether they can return to form in the back half of the season, like they have in recent years.
5. GEELONG CATS (4-2, 123%) .............................. Last week: 6 (up 1)
6. BRISBANE LIONS (3-3, 105.2%) ......................... Last week: 7 (up 1)
7. WEST COAST EAGLES (3-3, 93.6%) ..................... Last week: 5 (down 2)
8. SYDNEY SWANS (4-2, 113.9%) ........................... Last week: 6 (down 2)
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-power-rankings-after-round-6-afl-analysis-stats-every-team-ranked-ladder-top-eight-predictions/news-story/2d0cb0219b6afb26c135c4a8ae6bc650
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Lloyd’s top 8 after finals
1 – Port Adelaide (Premier)
2 – Western Bulldogs (Runner Up)
3 – Geelong (Prelim)
4 – Melbourne (Prelim)
5 – Richmond
6 – Brisbane
7 – West Coast
8 – Sydney
“In fifth I’ve got the Tigers. I think it’s very hard to be up for this long. They’ll win plenty of games. We’ve seen it with Brisbane and Hawthorn, to be up for this long is very difficult.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/04/26/top-eight-grand-final-match-up-and-bottom-four-how-lloyd-sees-the-season/
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Gerard Whateley and David King have named their top four seeds in the AFL after Round 7.
King
1. Richmond
"How did we not have them at one all the way through? I feel a bit silly.
"(Trent) Cotchin does a hamstring – that won’t be a three-weeker, that’ll be 4-5 weeks. (Dion) Prestia setback, he might be 5-6 weeks, not 2-3. You don’t need too many more and all of a sudden it gets too difficult.
"That’s the only thing for me that’s going to stop them being short of a prelim. If you have them one for the year, you’re getting to a prelim.
"Their best is better than anyone else's, it has a level of nastiness and a brutality to it that the others almost have to manufacture.
2. Melbourne
"No one will talk about the win against North Melbourne, but to be in the position they were in, it’s still a very good win.
"To win seven in a row … no one saw this coming. I do think all their components are in good order, I’m worried about that one spot down back now."
3. Western Bulldogs
"It’s a slip from one.
"Still, what they did was very good, but that third quarter scares me a little."
4. Geelong
"Despite the loss, I’ve got Geelong at four.
"They’re doing things that others aren’t exploring yet and it should have worked. If they had have won by two points, it’s a different conversation."
Whateley
1. Richmond
"Do we nail them in at one and just disregard the week-to-week fluctuations?
"That’s what the question for the rest of the year is going to be because Richmond’s best footy is the best footy."
2. Melbourne
"I really like what they’ve done, salute."
3. Port Adelaide
"They were one for me but go down a couple."
4. Western Bulldogs
"Good body of work, did some things right, failed the PFI (Preliminary Final Integrity).
"Sit at four for a little bit."
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/05/03/whateley-and-king-rank-their-top-four-seeds-after-round-7/
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E0bz_oTVUAAE98w?format=jpg&name=large)
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Nice looking bottom 4.
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Just saw a team of the week released on some website. Not one Tiger player makes the cut in a team that beat the flag favorites.
What a joke.
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Just saw a team of the week released on some website. Not one Tiger player makes the cut in a team that beat the flag favorites.
What a joke.
When it's all said and done do we really care?
I know I don't..
Media, other supporters don't want to dare rate us or simply don't rate us after 3 flags in 4 years then so be it.
Let them wallow ;D
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Campbell Brown had Broad, Houli & Lynch in his team of the week.
https://twitter.com/7AFL/status/1389115680365039616
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Just saw a team of the week released on some website. Not one Tiger player makes the cut in a team that beat the flag favorites.
What a joke.
It's not that Saints supporting idiot is it :lol
He hates the Tigers and the Dees, gave 3 Norf players brownlow votes in the loss against Melbourne and gave Macrae 2 against us.
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Since there's been a 22 round H/A season (1970 onwards), only 4 out of the 19 teams (21%) that won their first 7 matches have gone on to win the flag.
Unbeaten teams after Round 7:
2021: Melbourne
2016: North Melbourne (lost EF)
2015: Fremantle (lost PF)
2013: Geelong (lost PF)
2009: Geelong (Premiers), St Kilda (lost GF)
2008: Hawthorn (Premiers), Geelong (lost GF)
2005: West Coast (lost GF)
2004: St Kilda (lost PF)
2001: Hawthorn (lost PF)
2000: Essendon (Premiers)
1995: Carlton (Premiers), Richmond (lost PF)
1991: West Coast (lost GF)
1981: Collingwood (lost GF)
1979: North Melbourne (lost PF)
1978: North Melbourne (lost GF)
1976: Carlton (lost PF)
1970: Collingwood (lost GF)
Resource: https://afltables.com/afl/seas/season_idx.html
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AFL Power Rankings after Round 7
Max Laughton
Fox Sports
May 4th, 2021
1. RICHMOND (4-3, 115.9%) ................... Last week: 4 (up 3)
Oh yeah, these guys! We think the reaction of many Tigers fans after Friday night of “take that, everyone who wrote us off!!” was a bit over the top - there were many, many more tweets saying that than people who actually wrote them off. Most experts agreed there was nothing to worry about at Punt Road, and a dominant second half performance proved it. It was eerily similar to the Tigers’ two recent finals victories over Geelong; a slow start leading to a three or four-goal deficit at halftime, but then the gap was gone before three-quarter-time, and the premiers never really looked like losing from that point. In their premiership seasons, the Tigers have been 5-2, 4-3 and 4-3. They’re 4-3 again. They’re more than fine.
2. WESTERN BULLDOGS (6-1, 157%) .......... Last week: 1 (down 1)
3. MELBOURNE (7-0, 149.1%) .................... Last week: 3
4. PORT ADELAIDE (5-2, 120.2%) ............... Last week: 2 (down 2)
5. BRISBANE LIONS (4-3, 114.1%) .............. Last week: 6 (up 1)
6. GEELONG CATS (4-3, 118.5%) ................ Last week: 5 (down 1)
7. WEST COAST EAGLES (4-3, 103.9%) ....... Last week: 7
8. SYDNEY SWANS (5-2, 112.1%) ............... Last week: 8
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-power-rankings-after-round-7-afl-analysis-stats-every-team-ranked-ladder-top-eight-predictions/news-story/b297cce3fb7bc010a1d533ccacc0f86c
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FOOTY’S IMPOSSIBLE QUESTION GETS EVEN TOUGHER
After two months of the 2021 AFL season, the premiership race features two things: certainty and uncertainty.
The certainty: It sure seems like the current top eight of Melbourne, the Bulldogs, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Brisbane, West Coast, Sydney and Richmond will be our top eight.
The teams outside of the eight are either seriously flawed or about to run into a horror fixture. For example: GWS, who sit just percentage behind the Tigers and have won four of their last five matches. They’re a finals contender, right?
Well, they still have to play Richmond, West Coast and Brisbane before their bye, plus Melbourne, Sydney, Port Adelaide, Geelong and Richmond again after it. Want to reconsider?
But then there’s the uncertainty: who the hell is actually going to win the flag?
You can make a case for every team in the top eight, perhaps with the exception of Sydney, just because they’re so young and on paper their list simply doesn’t have the talent of the other looming finalists.
But the other seven? Absolutely.
Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Geelong and Richmond were all right there last year. You can’t be mugs and go 8-0, so Melbourne’s in the hunt. The Bulldogs have looked damn good at times. And West Coast is doing a great job of staying in the race while suffering the AFL’s worst injury crisis - you’d hate to draw a healthy Eagles side in September.
It’s very difficult to pick who the favourite should be though. There are so many results that conflict.
We can almost make a complete loop: Melbourne beating Sydney, who beat Geelong, who beat West Coast, who beat Port Adelaide, who beat Richmond, who beat the Bulldogs, who beat Brisbane. Make sense of that!
We’ll learn more over the rest of the season, but North Melbourne champion David King believes the most crucial factor is simply going to be who earns the double chance in the finals.
“I still subscribe to the fact you’ve got to finish top four - so the squeeze is on,” David King said on Saturday Countdown.
“And when you play a like type, so the teams that are fighting for that top four position ... it’s everything for the end of the season. You don’t know if you’re going to be travelling interstate, we have no idea what COVID’s going to bring us towards the back half of the year, but that’s the squeeze.
“I reckon there’s still seven teams (that can make the top four) - it’s too early to say a ‘win the flag’-type thing.”
Realistically, the contender that has wobbled the most is Richmond, after they dropped to 4-4 following their beatdown at the hands of Geelong.
“Twice we’ve seen it, Sydney did it as well. Everyone knows how to beat everybody else, it’s whether you can carry out that plan,” Dermott Brereton said on Fox Footy’s Saturday Countdown.
“To get the ball to a position where you can exploit Richmond’s backmen; they’re a great, great defensive team, but individually let’s be honest, they’re not Alex Rance.
“They’ve got some role players down there who if you can isolate, you can expose them and you can beat them in one-on-ones, or get them all to your advantage.”
Of course, it’s Richmond; we’re not going to give up on them quickly. And just a week ago, they looked at their brutal best against the Bulldogs.
They can win it all this year. But so can six other teams.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-round-8-analysis-talking-points-reaction-top-stories-news-premiership-contenders-melbourne-mcg-form-news/news-story/45e2889d071b918726cd5024a233ecb0?recommendedCount=0
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WHATELEY AND KING RANK THEIR TOP FOUR SEEDS AFTER ROUND 8
David King
1. Melbourne
“I’ve slipped Melbourne to top billing. Just on what they do without the ball.
“They should be able to manage their list now, and if they don’t, that will be the biggest error they make."
2. Western Bulldogs
“I’m really happy with how they’re going.”
3. Geelong
“I’m going to elevate Geelong from fourth to third.”
4. Richmond
“Richmond for me have gone from one to four.”
Gerard Whateley
1. Melbourne
“Respect Melbourne – 8-0, grinding wins whenever challenged.
“I think they’re ripe to get beaten, but they’re doing the business.”
2. Geelong
“I’ve got Geelong at two.”
3. Port Adelaide
“I’ve got Port Adelaide at three.”
4. Richmond
“I’m going to join you with Richmond at four."
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/05/10/whateley-and-king-rank-their-top-four-seeds-after-round-8/
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A third of the way into the season, four clubs share favouritism for the flag
Courtney Walsh
The Australian
MAY 10, 2021 3pm
The Demons are unbeaten after eight rounds for the first time since the Melbourne Olympics and the reigning premiers Richmond are arguably on the ropes.
More than a third of the AFL season is now complete, but that has not created any certainty in terms of premiership favouritism among leading contenders for the prize.
There is also congestion from fourth down to 14th, with only two games separating Geelong from Adelaide with 14 matches to go for each club in the home-and-away season.
Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Richmond and the Western Bulldogs share favouritism for the premiership at $5.50 with most bookmakers. The TAB has the Dogs a half point further out at $6.
Geelong, so impressive when routing Richmond at the MCG last Friday, and the building Brisbane are also in contention, with the West Coast Eagles considered the next most likely.
Even among the coaches, there are doubts as to which team is currently the best, despite the Demons’ unbeaten status.
Sydney coach John Longmire gave Melbourne the honour after their nine-point loss to the Demons at the MCG on Saturday night.
But Damien Hardwick, whose Tigers lost to Melbourne by 34 points last month, said after Richmond were mauled by Geelong that the Cats were the best team they had played.
Port Adelaide’s clash with the Western Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval on Saturday night shapes as a match that will provide further clarity.
Richmond’s ability in recent seasons to launch barnstorming finishes from middling starts to claim three of the past four premierships ensures the Tigers respect.
As Geelong coach Chris Scott said after Friday night’s triumph: “One thing you know is that they come back.”
But Richmond’s 50 per cent record after eight weeks is their worst start since 2016 and the Tigers do have key personnel absent, with Shane Edwards the latest to head to the medical ward.
He is set to miss up to two months with an ankle injury. Captain Trent Cotchin and former best-and-fairest Dion Prestia are weeks away from a return.
The next fortnight will be pivotal to the Tigers’ hopes of being in position to launch a bid for the top four in the second half of the season.
Richmond host the Giants, which trail them on percentage in ninth position, at Marvel Stadium on Saturday night and then travel to Brisbane to play the Lions at the Gabba.
The Giants suffered another injury blow when veteran defender Lachie Keeffe ruptured an anterior cruciate ligament in his knee in the final minute of their win over Essendon.
Former Geelong champion Jimmy Bartel won three premierships in five years with the Cats between 2007 and 2011.
He disputes the suggestion success can get tiring and believes Richmond remain motivated to cement their status as the best team of this century by completing a hat-trick.
“Winning is underestimated as a motivation,” Bartel said on RSN 927. “I think everyone looks to adversity or tough defeats as the great motivator, but there is a fantastic motivator in winning and being pretty awesome as a team. It is pretty fun.
“It gives you great energy. You even see it in games, the momentum, the energy, you are starting to win and all of a sudden you are running a little faster, spreading a little further, training a little harder.”
The Lions continue to build despite the absence of Brownlow Medallist Lachie Neale.
Hugh McCluggage has assumed greater responsibility in the middle of the ground and the Lions will seek a fifth win in succession against the Suns on the Gold Coast on Saturday.
Brisbane coach Chris Fagan pointed out that the Lions’ early season losses to the Cats and Bulldogs, when on the road in Victoria, looked better performances by the week given the current status of those sides.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/afl/a-third-of-the-way-into-the-season-four-clubs-share-favouritism-for-the-flag/news-story/12ffdf7f68b77f230933c537d81979cb
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Ladder splitting into two with us in the middle in 8th spot.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E1f-N3tXEAcY_m5?format=jpg&name=large)
Tom Morris on Fox Footy's First Crack show reckons the top 8 is set.
David King reckons the top 4 is set but not the top 8 given our injuries. His reason was that sides have come from outside the eight in the second half a season to play finals (he then used us as an example in 2019).
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Our challengers are ourselves.
I can see us if we miss top 4, Melbourne finish top lose first final then play us BANG BANG straight sets would be gold
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I reckon top 4 is up for grabs.
Top 8 set.
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Gerard Whateley and David King have named their top four seeds in the AFL after Round 9.
King
1. Melbourne
“You can’t be unhappy with what Melbourne have done.
“Undefeated and playing in a manner that’s challenging everyone else to look at how they have to play differently to beat Melbourne.”
2. Western Bulldogs
“I’m staying with the Dogs.”
3. Geelong
“At three, I’ve got the Cats. They played ordinary but got the job done.
“I’m going to call them the new Cats because if you think it’s last year’s version, it’s different.”
4. Richmond
“I’ve locked Richmond in at four and I’m not going to look at them.
“At the moment they’re four.”
Whateley
1. Melbourne
“It’s obviously Melbourne.”
2. Western Bulldogs
“You (King) were right about the Dogs.
“I don’t know how I managed to shuffle them down to five. They were the rightful holders of two and so it has proven.”
3. Geelong
“You (King) were an early advocate for the Cats. They’re in the four.”
4. Richmond
“I’ve got Richmond at four, but the Brisbane Lions will take their place if they beat them on Friday night.”
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/05/17/whateley-and-king-rank-their-top-four-seeds-after-round-9/
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Power rankings after Round 9
Max Laughton
Foxsports
18 May 2021
1. MELBOURNE (9-0, 144.3%) ..................... Last week: 1
2. BRISBANE LIONS (6-3, 126.4%) ............... Last week: 6 (up four)
3. GEELONG CATS (6-3, 128.8%) .................. Last week: 2 (down one)
4. WESTERN BULLDOGS (8-1, 146.9%) .......... Last week: 5 (up one)
5. PORT ADELAIDE (6-3, 120.6%) .................. Last week: 4 (down one)
6. WEST COAST EAGLES (6-3, 112.2%) .......... Last week: 7 (up one)
7. RICHMOND (5-4, 103.1%) ......................... Last week: 3 (down four)
It wouldn’t have been the end of the world if the Tigers had lost to the Giants - even though they would’ve dropped out of the eight, and been staring down the barrel of a 4-6 record - but the win just gives them some breathing room while they’re battling injuries. As Damien Hardwick said on AFL 360 last week, they’re basically missing an entire midfield. So beating GWS, who we think is the best team not in the top eight, is a big tick for the premiers. As long as they still have a winning record at their Round 13 bye, they’ll get enough stars back to make a charge at the top four. Brisbane this week is tough, but then you’d expect them to beat Adelaide and Essendon at the MCG.
8. SYDNEY SWANS (6-3, 113.2%) .................... Last week: 8
9. GWS GIANTS (4-5, 98%) ............................ Last week: 9
10. CARLTON (3-6, 92.6%) ............................. Last week: 10
11. ST KILDA (4-5, 81.5%) ............................. Last week: 13 (up two)
12. ESSENDON (3-6, 96.8%) ........................... Last week: 11 (down one)
13. FREMANTLE (4-5, 93.5%) .......................... Last week: 12 (down one)
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-power-rankings-after-round-9-afl-analysis-stats-every-team-ranked-ladder-top-eight-predictions/news-story/b8c9adba44979440fe3bec143a478060
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Barrett thinks Brisbane and Geelong will make the Grand Final.
Nat Edwards reckons Brisbane vs Bulldogs.
15:26 min mark - The simple argument for Richmond: https://player.whooshkaa.com/episode?id=830097
https://www.afl.com.au/news/616697/listen-where-are-the-demons-damo-and-nat-s-shock-grand-final-call
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Who beats us by more than the umpires? They rack up 20-30 kicks against us each week & kick 4-5 goals as well!
I'd cast my votes but its pretty obvious who is BOG every week .... :help
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Had a crack at the ladder predictor and have us finishing 9th equal points with GWS, Swans.
That's with us losing to WC, Geelong & GWS.
The auto fill option is the same.
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Anyone watching Collingwood absolutely choke against the Power. OMG do they suck. Literally will not kick it Forward
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Had a crack at the ladder predictor and have us finishing 9th equal points with GWS, Swans.
That's with us losing to WC, Geelong & GWS.
The auto fill option is the same.
So we are 9th at the moment and you have us finishing 9-3 and still placing 9th. Think somethings wrong with your predictor.
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Had a crack at the ladder predictor and have us finishing 9th equal points with GWS, Swans.
That's with us losing to WC, Geelong & GWS.
The auto fill option is the same.
So we are 9th at the moment and you have us finishing 9-3 and still placing 9th. Think somethings wrong with your predictor.
Nope, just the teams above us currently win the same amount of games. Obviously won't pan out this way due to upsets but that's why they call it a predictor.
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David King has written us off. He said Richmond won't make the top 4 and if you don't make top 4 this year then you won't win the flag.
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Gerard Whateley and David King have named their top four seeds in the AFL after Round 10.
King
1. Melbourne
2. Western Bulldogs
“I really had a good think about this, the top two, but I’ve stuck fat and I’ve gone the Dogs at two.
“I think their best is really good, Friday night tells us everything.”
3. Brisbane
“I’m bringing Brisbane in, they’re into three.”
4. Geelong
“I said I’d never let Richmond slip out of four … they’ve slipped out of four.
“I’ve gone with Geelong at four just because I think they’re getting the job done, they’re healthy in terms of the way they play, a bit of talent to come back in.”
Whateley
1. Western Bulldogs
“The Bulldogs are one.
“I made the Bulldogs work hard to earn it.”
2. Melbourne
3. Brisbane
“I forecast last week that they’d come in if they won (against Richmond).
“I’ve just been waiting for that one performance to validate.”
4. Geelong
“I’ve shuffled Richmond out as well, I never committed to it the way you (King) did.
“I’ve got Geelong at four. I’m not 100 per cent sure about Geelong … they can have four.”
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/05/24/whateley-and-king-rank-their-top-four-seeds-after-round-10/
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Had a crack at the ladder predictor and have us finishing 9th equal points with GWS, Swans.
That's with us losing to WC, Geelong & GWS.
The auto fill option is the same.
So we are 9th at the moment and you have us finishing 9-3 and still placing 9th. Think somethings wrong with your predictor.
Nope, just the teams above us currently win the same amount of games. Obviously won't pan out this way due to upsets but that's why they call it a predictor.
Nah. Your prediction is absurd
Winning 14 and missing the 8 will NEVER happen under the current format
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Don’t be fooled by Richmond’s .500 record.
With as long an injury list as any team in the comp, they’ve lost five games – all to top seven teams. They’ve also handed the Bulldogs their only loss, defeated GWS, St Kilda and Carlton, the teams right behind them, and lost to Port by two in Adelaide.
(It seems odd to say their least worthwhile win was over the Hawks.)
The schedule they’ve faced has been brutal. They face only three more top-seven teams the rest of the way: West Coast and rematches against Geelong and Brisbane, both at the MCG.
In our simulation, we had them winning eight or nine of their last 12.
https://www.theroar.com.au/2021/05/25/round-11-preview-demons-dogs-and-eight-filler-games/
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Our biggest challengers are the umpires, the MRO and the Tribunals
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Where do Tigers fall? AFL Power Rankings
Max Laughton
Fox Sports
May 26th, 2021
1. WESTERN BULLDOGS (9-1, 161.9%) ........ Last week: 4 (up three)
2. BRISBANE LIONS (7-3, 127.6%) .............. Last week: 2
3. MELBOURNE (9-1, 137.7%) ..................... Last week: 1 (down two)
4. GEELONG CATS (7-3, 131.4%) ................. Last week: 3 (down one)
5. PORT ADELAIDE (7-3, 119.1%) ................. Last week: 5
6. GWS GIANTS (5-5, 100.1%) ..................... Last week: 9 (up three)
7. WEST COAST EAGLES (6-4, 109%) ............ Last week: 6 (down one)
8. RICHMOND (5-5, 99.3%) ......................... Last week: 7 (down one)
We can already see exactly how Richmond’s season is going to go, and it sounds incredibly familiar. We get this little patch of being worried because they’re middle of the pack; then after the bye they have an easy fixture and get players back, allowing them to go on a run and finish on between 13 and 15 wins. Seriously; after their post-bye game against West Coast in Perth, their toughest games left are Brisbane at the MCG, Geelong at the MCG and GWS in Sydney. Otherwise it’s all bottom ten teams, with six matches in total at the MCG. If things truly are different this year, the Tigers will slip up more than expected and need to go on a run just to reach 12 wins, but we’re nowhere close to writing them off.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-power-rankings-after-round-10-afl-analysis-stats-every-team-ranked-ladder-top-eight-predictions/news-story/2654f4c8644f5ac3939a6257d856efd4
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Well we're back in the Eight without playing ;D.
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And we’ve dropped back to 9th thanks to the Eagles
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WOAH, WE’RE HALFWAY THERE - SO WHO’S LIVIN’ ON A PRAYER?
Max Laughton, Ben Waterworth and David Zita
Foxsports
31 May 2021
Just like that, half of the season has come and gone, with every club having now played 11 of their 22 home and away matches.
Perhaps now people will stop tweeting ‘it’s only [whatever month it is], stop worrying about the finals’; because half a season tells us a hell of a lot about the premiership race.
If you want to win the flag, you need to finish in the top four - only the 2016 Bulldogs have done it from outside of there under the existing finals format. And it’s very hard to make up ground if you’re not close after 11 games.
Just look at Richmond, who had to fight hard just to get past Adelaide and sneak back into eighth. They have a pretty easy draw in the second half of the season, but it’s still going to be extremely difficult for them to make the top four.
They’re trying to catch Brisbane (8-3 record, 133.5%) and/or Geelong (8-3, 130.6%); meanwhile the Tigers are 6-5 with a percentage of 102.4%.
That percentage gap is worth an extra win; they’ll need to win three more games than the Lions or Cats from here to pass them on the ladder.
Is that possible? Yes. Is that likely? No.
And as history tells us, if you’re in the top four through half a season, you’re likely to remain there; but not a certainty.
HOW MANY OF THE TOP FOUR AFTER 11 GAMES FINISHED IN THE TOP FOUR? (18-team era)
2019: Two (#2 GWS and #4 West Coast out, #5 Brisbane and #6 Richmond in)
2018: Two (#3 Melbourne and #4 Sydney out, #7 Collingwood and #10 Hawthorn in)
2017: Four
2016: Two (#1 North Melbourne and #4 Western Bulldogs out, #5 Hawthorn and #6 GWS in)
2015: Three (#4 Collingwood out, #6 Hawthorn in)
2014: Two (#1 Port Adelaide and #4 Collingwood out, #6 Geelong and #7 Fremantle in)
2013: Three (#4 Essendon out, #5 Fremantle in)
2012: Two (#3 West Coast and #4 Essendon out, #5 Adelaide and #6 Hawthorn in)
Average: 2.5 mid-season top four members remain in the top four
As you can see, we should expect a change or two - unsurprisingly it’s the fourth-ranked team that most frequently drops out of the top four. That makes sense given they’re the closest to the chasing pack.
In contrast, only three times has a top two team at mid-season dropped out of the top four. Two of those teams did extremely well anyway - GWS in 2019 made the Grand Final, and Port Adelaide in 2014 was a kick away from beating Hawthorn in the prelim.
Only North Melbourne in 2016, the perennial outlier in these discussions after falling from 10-1 to 12-10, truly collapsed.
So, the lessons:
- Melbourne (10-1) and the Western Bulldogs (9-2) are almost locked into the double chance, or at least making the final four in September;
- We’d expect one of Brisbane (8-3) or Geelong (8-3) to drop out of the top four, though it’s not a certainty;
- The most likely teams to come in are unsurprisingly the ones sitting fifth and sixth right now, Port Adelaide (8-3) and Sydney (7-4)
- It’s very uncommon to come from outside the top six at mid-season to make the top four, so West Coast (6-5) and Richmond (6-5) would be going against historic trends.
You can also get a sense of how hard it is to crack into the top four by looking at how often teams get there from specific records.
Using data from 1995-2019, these are the historic chances:
9 wins, 2 losses: 86% to make top 4, 100% to make top 8
8-3: 60% to make top 4, 93% to make top 8
7-4: 47% to make top 4, 82% to make top 8
6-5: 15% to make top 4, 58% to make top 8
5-6: 4% to make top 4, 25% to make top 8
4-7: 0% to make top 4, 12% to make top 8
This all makes sense at a glance; at most, one of the four 5-6 teams (Essendon, GWS, Fremantle and St Kilda) will end up making the eight, while you’d suggest the top four race is down to the current top six (with Sydney the rank outsider).
As for Carlton, Gold Coast and Adelaide - the latter two were always unlikely to make it this year, but the Blues need to get on a run right now if they’re to live up to expectations.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-round-11-analysis-talking-points-reaction-top-stories-essendon-rebuild-run-home-top-four-chances-melbourne/news-story/741d00701562c545f374956731ee3379
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Brisbane v Melbourne round 12 then Geelong v Port round 13, Geelong v Bulldogs round 14 and then in round 15 Geelong v Brisbane and Syd v Port
At the end of Round 15 we will have a clearer outlook for the ladder
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Brisbane are rightfully the Premiership favorites at this point. Their likely challenger is Melbourne.
Geesook will fall away as their old campaigners get injured and sore and Dogs & Port I don't feel are good enough. Both are flat track bullies that don't have a defensive game plan to win big finals.
We are a chance but need a 5th or 6th finish and a soft elimination final against an interstate team before we hit the harder finals.
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Gerard Whateley and David King have named their top four seeds in the AFL after Round 11.
King's seedings
1. Melbourne
“They’re flying.
“We probably think they’re going to stay one for a little while.”
2. Brisbane
“On the move, won their last seven, percentage of 172 over the last seven weeks, that’s big.
“The way they’re playing is brutal, clearance game in good order, their forward half work is probably the best in the competition right now.”
3. Western Bulldogs
“They’ve gone down one which is in line with my previous set of rules.
“They’re 5.2 over the last seven weeks, losses to Richmond and Melbourne drops you down one spot.”
4. Geelong
“The Geelong Football Club, and reluctantly.
“I actually flirted with the idea of bringing Sydney in this week, but they’re 6-1 over the last seven weeks and probably should be 7-0 given the one loss was to Sydney where they brained them.”
Whateley's seedings
1. Melbourne
“It has to be Melbourne.”
2. Brisbane
3. Western Bulldogs
“They sit at three.”
4. Vacant*
“I can’t have Geelong at four having watched that on Saturday.
“No four seed this week. Geelong don’t deserve four this week.”
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/05/31/whateley-and-king-rank-their-top-four-seeds-after-round-11/
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According to Champion Data when the top 5 have played the bottom 10 sides the result has been 30-2 with a percentage of 160%.
Richmond has a percentage of 150% against the bottom 10 sides this year.
David King said it will be hard for Richmond to make top 4 as the sides above us are winning the game they should. This will force us on the run home to have to be beat the top sides above us if we want to finish top 4.
https://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/pure-footy-david-king-and-daniel-hoyne-lift-the-lid-on-afl-trends-stats/news-story/c20ba017647ba08189286a78a5f49839
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Power Rankings: Round 11
Max Laughton
Fox Sports
June 2nd, 2021
1. MELBOURNE (10-1, 138.5%) ....................... Last week’s ranking: 3 (up two)
2. BRISBANE LIONS (8-3, 133.5%) .................. Last week’s ranking: 2
3. WESTERN BULLDOGS (9-2, 150.6%) ............ Last week’s ranking: 1 (down two)
4. GEELONG CATS (8-3, 130.6%) ..................... Last week’s ranking: 4
5. PORT ADELAIDE (8-3, 123.3%) .................... Last week’s ranking: 5
6. RICHMOND (6-5, 102.4%) ........................... Last week’s ranking: 8 (up two)
The online discussion around Richmond is reminding us of this tweet. We haven’t seen a single person saying the Tigers can’t win the flag, though some fans seem to think that’s happening frequently. What we are saying is everything needs to go right for 2021 to be a repeat of the last two years, when the Tigers came from the middle of the pack to win the flag, because they’re not the same situation. The top five on the ladder are 30-2 against the bottom ten with a percentage of 160-ish - because of percentage, Richmond is still virtually three games back of them, and the uber-valuable double chance. In 2019, the Tigers were ninth after Round 14, but they were only two games out of the top four; they’re coming from further back this time. It is going to be very hard to do it again... but if any team can, you’d think it’s them.
7. SYDNEY SWANS (7-4, 113%) ........................ Last week’s ranking: 9 (up two)
8. ESSENDON (5-6, 106.2%) ............................ Last week’s ranking: 12 (up four)
9. WEST COAST EAGLES (6-5, 106.4%) ............. Last week’s ranking: 7 (down two)
10. GWS GIANTS (5-6, 93.3%) ......................... Last week’s ranking: 6 (down four)
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-afl-power-rankings-after-round-11-afl-analysis-stats-every-team-ranked-ladder-top-eight-predictions/news-story/c151e38d6698cdf78d0b29de775d6958
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THE EIGHT IS LOCKED, AND THIS TIME WE MEAN IT
Max Laughton and David Zita
Foxsports
7 June 2021
Sunday’s two results have given us a stark reminder of the gap between the haves and have-nots this season.
Thanks to the Eagles and Bulldogs’ wins, there is now officially a two-game gap between the top eight and the bottom ten.
West Coast and Richmond now sit seventh and eighth respectively with a 7-5 record, while Essendon, Fremantle and St Kilda are all 5-7.
It may not hold for another week, admittedly. GWS is 5-6, and plays lowly North Melbourne in Round 13; the Giants should win while one of West Coast or Richmond loses, because they play each other.
But most observers have argued the current top eight of Melbourne, Bulldogs, Geelong, Brisbane, Port Adelaide, Sydney, West Coast and Richmond will be the final eight in some order. This only adds more fuel to the fire.
History shows the big difference between a 7-5 and a 5-7 record; since 1995, just 15 per cent of 5-7 teams have played finals, while 73 per cent of 7-5 teams have played finals.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-round-12-analysis-talking-points-reaction-top-stories-max-king-criticism-nathan-buckley-worst-comment-news/news-story/287a122ac35d254de72e3b2dae2a9e18
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E3LynhDXoAMo3tb?format=jpg&name=medium)
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[p]Power Rankings: Round 11[/b]
Max Laughton
Fox Sports
June 2nd, 2021
1. MELBOURNE (10-1, 138.5%) ....................... Last week’s ranking: 3 (up two)
2. BRISBANE LIONS (8-3, 133.5%) .................. Last week’s ranking: 2
3. WESTERN BULLDOGS (9-2, 150.6%) ............ Last week’s ranking: 1 (down two)
4. GEELONG CATS (8-3, 130.6%) ..................... Last week’s ranking: 4
5. PORT ADELAIDE (8-3, 123.3%) .................... Last week’s ranking: 5
6. RICHMOND (6-5, 102.4%) ........................... Last week’s ranking: 8 (up two)
The online discussion around Richmond is reminding us of this tweet. We haven’t seen a single person saying the Tigers can’t win the flag, though some fans seem to think that’s happening frequently. What we are saying is everything needs to go right for 2021 to be a repeat of the last two years, when the Tigers came from the middle of the pack to win the flag, because they’re not the same situation. The top five on the ladder are 30-2 against the bottom ten with a percentage of 160-ish - because of percentage, Richmond is still virtually three games back of them, and the uber-valuable double chance. In 2019, the Tigers were ninth after Round 14, but they were only two games out of the top four; they’re coming from further back this time. It is going to be very hard to do it again... but if any team can, you’d think it’s them.
7. SYDNEY SWANS (7-4, 113%) ........................ Last week’s ranking: 9 (up two)
8. ESSENDON (5-6, 106.2%) ............................ Last week’s ranking: 12 (up four)
9. WEST COAST EAGLES (6-5, 106.4%) ............. Last week’s ranking: 7 (down two)
10. GWS GIANTS (5-6, 93.3%) ......................... Last week’s ranking: 6 (down four)
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-afl-power-rankings-after-round-11-afl-analysis-stats-every-team-ranked-ladder-top-eight-predictions/news-story/c151e38d6698cdf78d0b29de775d6958
so what does this clown say about things now that we are 1 game and % from 4th spot, with port and cats to play each other.
we can only drop 1 more to clinch 4th spot, 2 losses need to come with a few smashings of close to 100 points.
we can do it
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I don’t think that they study the draw very closely. Over the next 4 weeks,
Power, Doggies and Cats have tough cases playing top 8 3 times each.
If we can get over the Eagles, we play Goldie,
Saints and Pies so we could potentially be in the top 4 by the end of June. With Lambert and Astbury due back this week and Nank and Meatie both due back after the bye, a full list along with a winning streak is on the cards.
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Yup big game this one. Win and we keep our 2 game separation from the bottom 10 and close the gap on top 4. Lose and we are right back in the sights of the teams below and make top 4 difficult. 16-6 would still get us top 4 so can afford to drop 1 more game but 15-7 will likely come down to % and the teams above us all have significantly better %s atm.
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We're back in vogue again with the footy media :blah:
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David King and Gerard Whateley have named their top four seeds in the AFL after Round 12.
King's seedings
1. Melbourne
“There’s a big gap between first and second in the seedings now.
“They’re clearly one.”
2. Western Bulldogs
“I still think what they do is so unique. It’s either going to work big or fail big at the end of the year.
3. Brisbane
“They showed in the first half that they’ve still got it, but there’s work to do.”
4. Richmond
“I’m going back to an old rule.
“Richmond at four, leave them there until they either drop out of the season or they win the flag.
“They’re at four, they’re a lock. I won’t be leaving them for the year.”
Whateley's seedings
1. Melbourne
“We love what they’re doing.”
2. Richmond
“They’ve come roaring back.
“I thought they were going to get beaten. They can come back up at two.”
3. Western Bulldogs
“Nice win, nothing flashy about yesterday, just needed to win in the circumstances that presented.
“It was a difficult trip to Perth for all the reasons that were well recounted around COVID.”
4. Brisbane
“I’ve got the Brisbane Lions back at four.
“They had a quick look at two, they didn’t quite stack up, so they can sit back at four.”
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/06/07/king-and-whateley-rank-their-top-four-seeds-after-round-12/
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Power rankings: Round 12
Max Laughton
Fox Sports
June 8th, 2021
1. MELBOURNE (11-1, 137.6%) ....................... Last week’s ranking: 1
2. BRISBANE LIONS (8-4, 127.3%) .................. Last week’s ranking: 2
3. WESTERN BULLDOGS (10-2, 150%) ............. Last week’s ranking: 3
4. GEELONG CATS (8-3, 130.6%) .................... Last week’s ranking: 4
5. PORT ADELAIDE (8-3, 123.3%) ................... Last week’s ranking: 5
6. RICHMOND (7-5, 106.2%) .......................... Last week’s ranking: 6
There’s one thing we’re torn on with the Tigers. It’s impressive that they can seemingly flip the switch, turning into absolute world-beaters when they need to - as seen both late against Essendon and after halftime against the Western Bulldogs a few weeks ago. But wouldn’t they be better off if they played a bit better the rest of the time too? On Champion Data’s expected score metric, Richmond only beat the Bombers by five points; they were not 39 points better. Anyone who’s saying all is well at Tigerland is going a bit too far, in our opinion. They’ll play finals thanks to one of the easier runs home, but they’re still a step back from the top four.
7. SYDNEY SWANS (8-4, 112.9%) ................... Last week’s ranking: 7
8. WEST COAST EAGLES (7-5, 108.2%) ........... Last week’s ranking: 9 (up one)
9. ESSENDON (5-7, 102%) ............................. Last week’s ranking: 8 (down one)
10. GWS GIANTS (5-6, 93.3%) ....................... Last week’s ranking: 10
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-afl-power-rankings-after-round-12-afl-analysis-stats-every-team-ranked-ladder-top-eight-predictions/news-story/637794eb2fd02e698ef942138fe8413d
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Veteran AFL journalist Mike Sheahan is not yet ready to declare anyone other than Richmond as flag favourites.
“Yep (they’re the team to beat). They’ve clearly been the best team of the last five years,” he told SEN Breakfast.
“What we saw on Saturday night is that the hunger is still there and they’ve got blokes to come back in.
“They’re entitled to be (flag favourites), they’re the defending champs and they’ve done nothing wrong so far.
“You’ve got to be able to get through Richmond to win the flag this year.”
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/06/07/mike-sheahan-names-his-premiership-favourite-at-the-bye-rounds/
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Another flag here tops of this dynasty.
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Another flag here tops of this dynasty.
4 in 5 years would top the other 21st century dynasties too IMHO. I think only Melbourne in the 50s and of course the Pies 4-peat have achieved such a record.
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Just a reminder for the rest of the competition:
After 12 games:
2017 - 7 wins 5 losses (6th position on the ladder)
2019 - 7 wins 5 losses (7th)
2020 - 7 wins 1 draw 4 losses (6th)
2021 - 7 wins 5 losses (8th)
https://twitter.com/Jonesracing82/status/1402644085077250050
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Gerard Whateley and Justin Leppitsch have named their top four seeds in the AFL after Round 13.
Whateley's seedings
1. Melbourne
“We’ve both got Melbourne at one.”
2. Western Bulldogs
“Dogs at two pending Friday night.”
3. Geelong
“I’ve got the Cats at three, just before they play the Dogs.”
4. Richmond
“I’ve kept Richmond in my seedings.
“They slide down from two to four. I’ve left the Lions out.”
Leppitsch's seedings
1. Melbourne
“Still got Melbourne at one.”
2. Geelong
“They’ve got their game humming at the moment.
“They’ve got their players back. They’ve now played together for a while. Jeremy Cameron is slotting nicely into that team.”
3. Western Bulldogs
“With (Adam) Treloar and (Josh) Dunkley coming back in a few weeks’ time, I think they’ll still be in that position.”
4. Brisbane
“They still play a good, competitive style and I think they’ll win at least eight of their games on the way home, which I think will keep them in that position.”
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/06/15/whateley-and-leppitsch-rank-their-top-four-seeds-after-round-13/
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Richmond has only defeated one team in the top eight this season, which has experts wondering whether their shot at a three-peat is over.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E34V9eJVUAYXyHz?format=jpg&name=large)
https://twitter.com/FootyonNine/status/1404607337420050432
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TAB ODDS – AFL PREMIERSHIP
$5.00 Melbourne (were $4.50)
$5.50 Geelong (were $6.50)
Western Bulldogs
$6.00 Brisbane,
Richmond
$8.00 Port Adelaide (were $7)
$15 West Coast (were $17)
$26 Sydney (were $17)
$41 GWS
$81 Essendon
$151 Fremantle (were $201)
St Kilda
$201 Carlton
Collingwood (were $251)
$251 Adelaide
$501 Gold Coast (were $251)
$1001 Hawthorn
North Melbourne
https://www.sportsnews.com.au/afl/afl-round-14-odds-and-premiership-betting-preview-2021/567894
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Absence makes the heart grow fonder.
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Gerard Whateley and David King have named their top four seeds in the AFL after Round 14.
Whateley's seedings
1. Melbourne
“They’re one until otherwise advised. Until they lose to a major team.”
2. Geelong
“Geelong’s at two for me.”
3. Western Bulldogs
“I’ve got the Dogs at three.”
4. Richmond
“I’ve got Richmond at four.”
King's seedings
1. Melbourne
“The Demons are clearly the best.”
2. Geelong
“They’re coming hard.
“I think their forward half game is something that most teams are going to struggle to stop.
“Even though the loss of (Mitch) Duncan is going to hit hard, they’ve had to leave players out of their 22 that most would have in as prime movers in their midfield.
“I think they made a little statement with Higgins at selection last week.”
3. Richmond
“They’ve been elevated without playing.”
4. Western Bulldogs
“I just want to see if they can hang in without (Adam) Treloar and (Josh) Dunkley for a bit longer, because I feel like they’re going to drop a game they shouldn’t.
“That’s in the back of my mind.”
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/06/21/whateley-and-king-rank-their-top-four-seeds-after-round-14/
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Power Rankings: After Round 14
Max Laughton
Foxsports
22 June 2021
1. GEELONG CATS (10-3, 127.7%) .................... Previous ranking: 4 (up three)
2. MELBOURNE (11-2, 132.2%) ........................ Previous ranking: 1 (down one)
3. WESTERN BULLDOGS (10-3, 144.7%) ........... Previous ranking: 3
4. BRISBANE LIONS (9-4, 128.4%) ................... Previous ranking: 2 (down two)
5. PORT ADELAIDE (9-4, 122.9%) ..................... Previous ranking: 5
6. WEST COAST EAGLES (8-5, 107.9%) ............. Previous ranking: 7 (up one)
7. RICHMOND (7-6, 105.3%) ............................ Previous ranking: 6 (down one)
Well, this is what everyone’s been waiting for. For the third straight season, the Tigers hit mid-season in the middle of the pack - 7-6 at the bye in 2019, 5-1-3 halfway through 2020. So this is where they go on a ridiculous run, sneak into the top four and win the flag again, right? Well, as we detailed in The Run Home on Sunday night, that’s a tougher task this year, not just because there are plenty of good teams above them but because they have a bigger gap to close. They’ve got three weeks to tune up and bank some wins against the lowly Saints, Suns and Magpies before the fortnight that could decide their season - MCG showdowns against Brisbane and Geelong. Lose both and they’re not making the top four.
8. SYDNEY SWANS (8-5, 108.1%) ..................... Previous ranking: 8
9. GWS GIANTS (6-6-1, 97.6%) ........................ Previous ranking: 10 (up one)
10. ESSENDON (6-7, 103%) ............................. Previous ranking: 9 (down one)
11. FREMANTLE (6-7, 91.4%) ........................... Previous ranking: 12 (up one)
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-afl-power-rankings-after-round-14-afl-analysis-stats-every-team-ranked-ladder-top-eight-predictions/news-story/40b0a0c06bfb0b9d69e6f2fbfc35641f
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The Achilles heel: Why each top eight team can't win the flag
Rohan Connolly
ESPN
23 June 2021
So the bye rounds over, the AFL season is officially into the home stretch. And what a finish we have in front of us.
There's two very different teams sitting in the top two spots on the ladder in Melbourne and Western Bulldogs. A couple more still relative September "newbies" just behind them in Brisbane and Port Adelaide. Three more seasoned finals heavyweights in Geelong, West Coast and Richmond. And a real wildcard in Sydney.
If the composition of the top eight doesn't change (and I still suspect it won't), there'll be a real freshness about this finals campaign. No wonder premiership betting is so tight, Geelong and Melbourne equal favourites at $5, and three teams each paying $6, Brisbane, Richmond and the Bulldogs.
But for all the talk about a new finals look, I still can't help but wonder whether the last Saturday in September might leave us with a match-up we've seen before ... like just 11 months previously.
Everyone has their own methods of sorting out premiership probables from pretenders. A favourite of mine is to examine not the strengths of candidates, but potential finals weaknesses, an all-important Achilles heel which might leave a premiership campaign coming up short.
So here's the theory ...
Melbourne
The Demons have one of the best defences recent AFL football has seen, and the midfield is superbly balanced and tough. It's the forward group that still has the question mark. Tom McDonald, Bayley Fritsch and Kysaiah Pickett have been terrific. But just who will end up playing the other key position role? Sam Weideman has kicked just three goals in five games, and Ben Brown is struggling in the VFL. Are resting ruckmen Luke Jackson and Max Gawn enough support for McDonald? And can the Demons afford to carry an out-of-sorts Brown or Weideman in the heat of finals?
Western Bulldogs
No questions about midfield depth, particularly once Adam Treloar and Josh Dunkley return. The Dogs are potent up forward, too, No.1 for points scored. And the defence? While the Dogs have conceded second-fewest points in the competition, it's noteworthy that while they concede fewer inside 50s than any team, they only rank seventh for fewest opposition goals per inside 50. Do Zaine Cordy, Alex Keath and Ryan Gardner have the height and strength to deny the likes of Tom Lynch (who kicked 3.5 against them), Jack Riewoldt, Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron when it counts?
Geelong
Weaknesses? Frankly, I'm not seeing any. The Cats' backline has been close to the best in the business for years, highly organised, great at negating, strong on the rebound. Their midfield is ranking No. 1 for contested possession for a third straight season, uncontested ball and clearances first and second respectively for a second season in a row. Even now without Mitch Duncan, though, it also looks a bit deeper and better balance for the run of Isaac Smith, Brandan Parfitt and Quinton Narkle. And it goes without saying the forward set-up plus Jeremy Cameron and a more consistent Gary Rohan, appears more dangerous.
Brisbane
This isn't a question so much of personnel or structure as venue. Brisbane is 5-1 at the Gabba this season. But it's only 4-3 away from there, including a victory only after the siren against Collingwood, and more-difficult-than-expected wins over strugglers Carlton and North Melbourne. As good as the Lions have been the past couple of years, their finals record is 1-3, and that's at home. It's going to be even tougher to win them away, and that's where the most important game of all is.
Port Adelaide
Simple question. Are the Power genuinely good enough to beat the very best when it matters most? You'd be forgiven for having your doubts. While their dispensing of Gold Coast last week was a 16th consecutive win over a bottom eight opponent, Port is 1-4 against top eight teams this season, decisive losses against West Coast and Brisbane away, and their home state advantage counting for little in two of their last three outings at Adelaide Oval against Western Bulldogs and Geelong.
Sydney
Despite still sitting sixth on the ladder, the Swans are clearly the most vulnerable member of the top eight, having gone 4-5 since their four straight wins to start the season. Their 38-point loss to Hawthorn last start was probably their worst effort yet, and even the two wins prior against a struggling St Kilda and Carlton were nothing to write home about. Youth and inexperience remains the big handicap in flag terms. Just 14 players on the list have played anything more than one final. Really, just appearing in one this season would be a bonus.
West Coast
There's no doubting the Eagles' flag capabilities with a full contingent of players. But arguably more than any other team, West Coast needs the cards to fall right in terms of finals position and fixturing. And that looks unlikely. A top-two spot is a long shot now, which means that to win a flag, the Eagles would need to win at least two finals away from home. Since its 2006 premiership, West Coast has played nine finals on the road and won two, one in extra time, and the other, famously, by five points. That's not particularly encouraging history.
Richmond
Personnel? Tick, with what was a lengthy injury list shrinking by the week, Tom Lynch and Toby Nankervis the only remaining first choice players on the sidelines. Hunger? It's a valid query, given Richmond is 7-6 and playing at its best more in bursts than with consistency. And the counter arguments? The Tigers were also 7-6 in 2019 before rattling off a dozen straight wins and a grand final romp by 89 points. And the bursts? Sure, they need to be sustained for longer. But can any other contender produce the sort of devastating blitz of seven goals in 16 minutes Richmond did three weeks ago? I doubt it.
...
And the conclusion to which all this theorising arrives? Well, it is still June, after all. But if my life depended on correctly predicting the 2021 grand finalists right now, I'd be arriving at a match-up I'm sure most in football would be rolling their eyes about.
Yep, a re-match of last year between Geelong and Richmond. That's far from "sexy", obviously. But if nothing else, it would at least be the AFL paying appropriate homage to a famous line from French writer Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr: "The more things change, the more they stay the same".
https://www.espn.com/afl/story/_/id/31677215/afl-rohan-connolly-achilles-heel-why-top-eight-team-win-flag
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Power Rankings after Round 15
Max Laughton
Fox Sports
June 29th, 2021
1. MELBOURNE (12-2, 131.4%) ................... Last week’s ranking: 2 (up one)
2. BRISBANE LIONS (10-4, 131.5%) ............ Last week’s ranking: 4 (up two)
3. GEELONG CATS (10-4, 120.6%) ............... Last week’s ranking: 1 (down two)
4. WESTERN BULLDOGS (11-3, 148.6%) ....... Last week’s ranking: 3 (down one)
5. PORT ADELAIDE (10-4, 122.2%) ............... Last week’s ranking: 5
6. SYDNEY SWANS (8-6, 106.6%) ................. Last week’s ranking: 8 (up two)
7. WEST COAST EAGLES (8-6, 106.6%) ......... Last week’s ranking: 6 (down one)
8. RICHMOND (7-7, 101.5%) ......................... Last week’s ranking: 7 (down one)
There are six quarters of evidence that 2021 Richmond is the Richmond everyone thinks it is: the dominant Round 5 thumping of St Kilda, and the second half against the Western Bulldogs. Otherwise this team is exactly what the ladder says it is - average. As many wins as they have losses, percentage almost even. Average. Yes, they’ve had injuries, but everyone has (maybe bar Melbourne). Can the Tigers still get it together and win the flag from the bottom half of the eight? Sure, at their absolute best. But their case is more reliant on faith than evidence at this point.
9. GWS GIANTS (6-7-1, 96.2%) .................. Last week’s ranking: 9
10. FREMANTLE (7-7, 93%) ........................ Last week’s ranking: 11 (up one)
11. ESSENDON (6-8, 101.9%) .................... Last week’s ranking: 10 (down one)
12. CARLTON (5-9, 91.4%) ......................... Last week’s ranking: 12
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-power-rankings-after-round-15-afl-analysis-every-team-ranked-stats-ladder-predictor-top-eight-predictions/news-story/f27ec08d2e3bcca4d850e33188208633
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We've dropped to $9 in the premiership betting.
$
Brisbane 5
Melbourne 5
Bulldogs 5
Geelong 5.50
Port Adel. 9
Richmond 9
West Coast 15
Sydney 41
https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/afl-premiership-winner-2021-5456172
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who would have thought it but gcs are on the list.
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Hope the Dogs win it from here now that we can't.... :shh
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Challengers for the wooden spoon
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Hope the Dogs win it from here now that we can't.... :shh
Stuff the dogs those little cheats that throw the ball and duck all game for frees. My most hated team and i wish them no success.
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Or msybe the Bears ...but I'll take the Scraggers everyday over the Handbaggers, The MCC Toffs, The Swanettes, & Portingwood... :shh
....
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AFL Power Rankings post-Rd 16
Max Laughton
Fox Sports
July 6th, 2021
1. BRISBANE LIONS (11-4, 134.7%) ........... Last week’s ranking: 2 (up one)
2. WESTERN BULLDOGS (12-3, 147.6%) ..... Last week’s ranking: 4 (up two)
3. GEELONG CATS (11-4, 123.4%) ............. Last week’s ranking: 3
4. MELBOURNE (12-3, 128.5%) ................. Last week’s ranking: 1 (down three)
5. PORT ADELAIDE (11-4, 124.4%) ............ Last week’s ranking: 5
6. SYDNEY SWANS (9-6, 114.5%) .............. Last week’s ranking: 6
7. WEST COAST EAGLES (8-7, 95.3%) ........ Last week’s ranking: 7
8. GWS GIANTS (7-7-1, 97.1%) ................. Last week’s ranking: 9 (up one)
9. RICHMOND (7-8, 100.6%) ..................... Last week’s ranking: 8 (down one)
We promise we didn’t put Richmond ninth on purpose - and that joke doesn’t even make sense any more; Melbourne, Hawthorn and St Kilda have all finished ninth twice since the Tigers did, and North has done it three times. It’s more a sign of how confused we are about this team. It wouldn’t surprise us at all if they got their act together, won five or six of their last seven games and played finals, and then gave Port Adelaide (or whoever) a real scare in their elimination final. That feels a bit more likely than this awful collapse continuing and the Tigers finishing something like 12th. But who knows? This team is one of the great mysteries of the rest of 2021.
10. ESSENDON (6-9, 98.7%) .................... Last week’s ranking: 11 (up one)
11. FREMANTLE (7-8, 92.2%) ................... Last week’s ranking: 10 (down one)
12. CARLTON (6-9, 93%) .......................... Last week’s ranking: 12
13. ST KILDA (7-8, 83.7%) ....................... Last week’s ranking: 15 (up two)
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-power-rankings-after-round-16-afl-analysis-every-team-ranked-stats-ladder-predictor-top-eight-news/news-story/84f8b7cb30b6a3ae0b87a2fa93e73ba9