One-Eyed Richmond Forum
Football => Richmond Rant => Topic started by: Stripes on September 10, 2008, 10:43:45 AM
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TW infamously stated that given the age of our developing list that we should not realistically expect to have any glimar of success (I'm reading finals here) before 2009 and would start our 'sustained era of success' (which I take us consistent finals action and attempts on the flag) until 2011.
Given our performance this year and the state of our list is this a realistic judgement?
Are we missing something?
Are we ahead of schedule?
Are we kidding ourselves compared to other past and currently developing lists?
Stripes
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Yes, it is a fair judgement on our list. In fact, as MT has stated on numerous occasions, 2013-14 is a fairer judgement on our list, because while we might pinch a finals series while most of Bowden, Richo, Simmo and Brown are still playing, the current gap with our 23-27 year olds stops us from speculating on a flag for 2011. We can't really make a judgement on Wallace's era until the current crop of youngsters hit their peak in their mid 20's which is still a few years away yet.
Again, Frawley :banghead
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At the start of 2011 Deledio would be on 120+ games and Tambling and Foley over 100 games
Moore, Thursfield and McGuane will be around 70/80. Riewoldt, Edwards, White will be just behind them
Cotchin, Morton and Connors would be around 50/60
So in 2011 we have the base of experience
Then looking at MT's 2013-14 and adding 70 games to each of the above this is the more realistic "window"
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TW infamously stated that given the age of our developing list that we should not realistically expect to have any glimar of success (I'm reading finals here) before 2009 and would start our 'sustained era of success' (which I take us consistent finals action and attempts on the flag) until 2011.
The 2011 comment was never directly linked to success, he was pointing out that 2011 will be when we've moved on our older players and our list will be balanced with an even spread of players of all ages.
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Given Collingwoods current side with all the young and inexperience yet finals success is age as bigger factor as we would like to believe?
At the moment their are glaring omissions on our list ie Ruck depth, Tall forwards. We have potential key forwards but no one who could definately fill the role. Our midfield and backline look stronger and potentially more viable but are this is far from garrenteed.
The age bracket indicator definately has merit when comparing other grandfinalist team lists from previous years and breaking down their list. The question though we should be asking is whether the young list we have moving through has what it takes to be successful when it reaches that magical age bracket.
Do we have the cattle all over the ground and why is it other clubs such as Collingwood can succeed with so many young inexperienced players yet we are still developing?
Stripes
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Collingwood didn't get into the finals with the side they had last Saturday. They fielded a much more experienced side for most of the year which included Burns Heath Shaw Johnson Didak O'Bree. And they only finished up half a game in front of us.
Collingwood are as far away from winning this years premiership as we are
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Yes, it is a fair judgement on our list. In fact, as MT has stated on numerous occasions, 2013-14 is a fairer judgement on our list, because while we might pinch a finals series while most of Bowden, Richo, Simmo and Brown are still playing, the current gap with our 23-27 year olds stops us from speculating on a flag for 2011. We can't really make a judgement on Wallace's era until the current crop of youngsters hit their peak in their mid 20's which is still a few years away yet.
Saved me from typing that all out DC :thumbsup.
The 2011 comment is all about having by then a new strong core with the necessary game experience that has come through together as Gracie has illustrated. By then we should have sorted out who will and won't make it from our current large U23 crop.
As Ramps has said in the past you really need two waves. One to build the core and the another to finish off the job of developing a strong list with depth and no age gaps. 2004 was the second wave for Hawthorn as they already had a young group coming through but it was the first wave for us. By the start of 2011 we should have another two mostly untampered drafts worth of kids to add to our current list plus another draft's worth which really starts in the second round for existing clubs unless you finish bottom 4. The recruiters still need to do their part.
We could dip down for a year or two around 2011 after the oldies retire within the next 2 years so even if Wallace survives next year that could cost him his job in the end.
We are probably on schedule (barring no career ending injuries to our best cubs - touchwood) but there's still a long way to go. We'll only jump ahead of schedule if more existing cubs have breakout years sooner than expected and a number of the kids in the upcoming drafts are quick developers/ready-made freaks like Cotch. Otherwise it's a 2013-14 timeline.
As for the Pies - 1 flag in 50 years. What's the (on-field) point of making finals only to just make up the numbers. They also only had to play 4 of the eventual finalists in the first 12 rounds (of which 10 were at the 'G) and came home with a average 5-6 record. Nice draw if you can get it when you can add only travelling 4 times.
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I don't buy the whole two waves - bottoming out again theory. I think we have had at least 'two waves' 2004 and 2007. I believe we now have our core group and just need to fill the gaps and continue to create depth.
2011 seems right on the money at the moment for the beginning stages of our sustained era of success and 2009 our first glimpse.
I agree Collingwood is further away than we are. I think they will actually slide next year but they do seem to know how to develop players and win the big games.
Stripes
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I don't buy the whole two waves - bottoming out again theory. I think we have had at least 'two waves' 2004 and 2007. I believe we now have our core group and just need to fill the gaps and continue to create depth.
2011 seems right on the money at the moment for the beginning stages of our sustained era of success and 2009 our first glimpse.
I agree Collingwood is further away than we are. I think they will actually slide next year but they do seem to know how to develop players and win the big games.
Stripes
Theoretically we should have completed the 2 waves stripes, but some players havent come on, some others havent been seen, for example, the JON, Hughes, Casserley draft is now looking light, Tambling isnt performing as a top 4 pick and Polo and Pattison are JUST players, Meyer has suffered injuries, We got Polak and sadly it looks like that he wont play again... so mistakes happen, injuries happen so that means we need to go to the draft again and get some more kids, we have glaring deficiencies, we lack a big ruck, we need a big key forward and a couple of in and under midfielders with a bit of size and pace wouldnt go astray. Just to throw one out there ... should Craig Cameron put Nathan Browns name on the table and see what comes out the other side, what would say a Sydney give for Nathan Brown?
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I don't buy the whole two waves - bottoming out again theory. I think we have had at least 'two waves' 2004 and 2007. I believe we now have our core group and just need to fill the gaps and continue to create depth.
2011 seems right on the money at the moment for the beginning stages of our sustained era of success and 2009 our first glimpse.
I agree Collingwood is further away than we are. I think they will actually slide next year but they do seem to know how to develop players and win the big games.
Stripes
Theoretically we should have completed the 2 waves stripes, but some players havent come on, some others havent been seen, for example, the JON, Hughes, Casserley draft is now looking light, Tambling isnt performing as a top 4 pick and Polo and Pattison are JUST players, Meyer has suffered injuries, We got Polak and sadly it looks like that he wont play again... so mistakes happen, injuries happen so that means we need to go to the draft again and get some more kids, we have glaring deficiencies, we lack a big ruck, we need a big key forward and a couple of in and under midfielders with a bit of size and pace wouldnt go astray. Just to throw one out there ... should Craig Cameron put Nathan Browns name on the table and see what comes out the other side, what would say a Sydney give for Nathan Brown?
now there's a thought no one has brought up.
Nathan Brown. i think we dont need him really.
for those of you that crap on about our players getting x amount of games. how many youngsters do the pies have playing for them.
does anyone know?? id say there list is younger than ours and look where they sit and look where we sit.
better coach
better facilities
better development.
thats all there is to it
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True Daniel about the Pies but the Pies are a club that dangles the carrot in front of their supporters only to forever keep it out of their reach. Collingwood have and will always believe that they are "The Club" and that having the best faclities the most supporters plenty of cash a great ethos :lol and heritage and using that to get their will is enough to keep the nuff nuffs at the Lexus centre coming back. Hence their mediocrity. Collingwood don't focus on 1 flag in 50 years yet will openly laugh at 2 finals appearances in 26 years when it comes to us despite the fact we have won 5 in the same time frame.
Sure memberships facilities lots of cash and such are great but lets just focus on getting the list right and the rest will come.
Problem with comparing Collingwood youngsters to players of the same age bracket from other clubs is that due to Collingwood's exposure and the media fascination about them any kid who puts on a black and white jumper is a bona fide 300 game player so to speak and when a couple of these kids kick a few goals in a final make that 350 games based on the hype surrounding the Carringbush. Cast your minds back to last season at this time wasn't Rusling supposed to be the new John Coleman? Our young kids other than Cotchin who is a freak and rightly so, although they have shown improvement have not been labelled with the hype that the Pies kids have. If Shane Edwards played for Collingwood he would have been labelled the new Bobby Skilton. Is that the type of false and overrated description you want our kids to get unjustifiably as opposed to the Pies? We have woken up to too many false dawns. Hence comparing us to Collingwood is neither accurate nor fair based on the overestimation they put on themselves merely in a vain attempt to suck everyone in. Mediocrity at its best. We at least can win GF'S when we get there so the rebuild is the way to go.
I agree with the theory earlier mentioned with the idea of placing Brown on the trade table and seeing what he will attract. Would rather receive in return draft picks instead of players in order to try and make use of the draft whilst its still umcompromised and hopefully add more youth coming through especially a key forward to replace Richo in the upcoming years and possibly a couple more inside midfielders.
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True Daniel about the Pies but the Pies are a club that dangles the carrot in front of their supporters only to forever keep it out of their reach. Collingwood have and will always believe that they are "The Club" and that having the best faclities the most supporters plenty of cash a great ethos :lol and heritage and using that to get their will is enough to keep the nuff nuffs at the Lexus centre coming back. Hence their mediocrity. Collingwood don't focus on 1 flag in 50 years yet will openly laugh at 2 finals appearances in 26 years when it comes to us despite the fact we have won 5 in the same time frame.
Sure memberships facilities lots of cash and such are great but lets just focus on getting the list right and the rest will come.
Problem with comparing Collingwood youngsters to players of the same age bracket from other clubs is that due to Collingwood's exposure and the media fascination about them any kid who puts on a black and white jumper is a bona fide 300 game player so to speak and when a couple of these kids kick a few goals in a final make that 350 games based on the hype surrounding the Carringbush. Cast your minds back to last season at this time wasn't Rusling supposed to be the new John Coleman? Our young kids other than Cotchin who is a freak and rightly so, although they have shown improvement have not been labelled with the hype that the Pies kids have. If Shane Edwards played for Collingwood he would have been labelled the new Bobby Skilton. Is that the type of false and overrated description you want our kids to get unjustifiably as opposed to the Pies? We have woken up to too many false dawns. Hence comparing us to Collingwood is neither accurate nor fair based on the overestimation they put on themselves merely in a vain attempt to suck everyone in. Mediocrity at its best. We at least can win GF'S when we get there so the rebuild is the way to go.
I agree with the theory earlier mentioned with the idea of placing Brown on the trade table and seeing what he will attract. Would rather receive in return draft picks instead of players in order to try and make use of the draft whilst its still umcompromised and hopefully add more youth coming through especially a key forward to replace Richo in the upcoming years and possibly a couple more inside midfielders.
you got to ask yourself
are we going to win a flag in the next 2 years- no
so Brown has bout 2-3 years max left so whats the point.
get rid of him. probably get a late first round or early second round.
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I think we can make a judgement by the end of 09 - Maybe strectchhhhh to 2010 - DAMN straight by 2011 -
Enough excuses and waiting :banghead !
My opinion, will be very very surprised if we don't make the 8 next year - VERY.
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Ramps, the Brown theory is a sensible option. If we want to be brutal we should really do this with all our older players with the exception of Simmonds, who we can't replace currently, and maybe Richo. Brown, Bowden and Johnson will not be around in 2-3 years so we should be thinking about shoring up our list for the future now.
Stripes
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Ramps, the Brown theory is a sensible option. If we want to be brutal we should really do this with all our older players with the exception of Simmonds, who we can't replace currently, and maybe Richo. Brown, Bowden and Johnson will not be around in 2-3 years so we should be thinking about shoring up our list for the future now.
Stripes
Stripes im no expert, I just come in here to give my opinion and thats it, in the end, it wont make one iota of difference, but If I had a say then Brown would be going up for trade and Johnson would have retired this year. Richo, Bowden and Simmonds will retire at Richmond. Brown is the only player of our senior group that is now tradeable. If we were a ruthless club we would do it and indeed Id suggest we need to do it- for all the reasons mentioned earlier ie. Age of Brown, where we are in the cycle, how far we are away from a proper tilt ... someone at Richmond needs to show some balls and make a hard decision.
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Ramps, the Brown theory is a sensible option. If we want to be brutal we should really do this with all our older players with the exception of Simmonds, who we can't replace currently, and maybe Richo. Brown, Bowden and Johnson will not be around in 2-3 years so we should be thinking about shoring up our list for the future now.
Stripes
Stripes im no expert, I just come in here to give my opinion and thats it, in the end, it wont make one iota of difference, but If I had a say then Brown would be going up for trade and Johnson would have retired this year. Richo, Bowden and Simmonds will retire at Richmond. Brown is the only player of our senior group that is now tradeable. If we were a ruthless club we would do it and indeed Id suggest we need to do it- for all the reasons mentioned earlier ie. Age of Brown, where we are in the cycle, how far we are away from a proper tilt ... someone at Richmond needs to show some balls and make a hard decision.
I know you're no expert Ramps, no more than me but I agree you on this point. We should show some gonads and attempt to trade away our more senior group to shore up good draft picks for the future. Bowden and Johnson may be worth something and Browny definitely would be. Even players such as Newman, Raines, JON etc could be worth more to our future with trades than to our team now.
It is always a grey emotive subject but I think we need to add to our current batch with quality youth. These older players will not be around when we will be at our peak.
Stripes
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These older players will not be around when we will be at our peak.
You are correct and 'largely' I agree with continuing to add youth instead of topping up but don't underestimate the importance today of having these few senior players around for a little while yet. Just playing kids over and over will not necessarily help (and probably hinder) the full development of the kids to their full potential. You need a good blend of youth and experience to protect and mentor young players while they learn all the tricks that go with football at the highest level and we have such an unbalanced side that we can ill afford to trade away any more of this experience at the moment. I think those responsible have done a very good job in the circumstances of allowing as many kids to play as many games as was realistically possible while gradually removing the deadwood from around them but we aren't in a position yet to raze the forest to the ground.
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Players such as Newman, Tuck and Simmo would fulfill this menior/leadership role for the developing kids and still be around when we are starting to challenge (well Simmo might be gone by this point). Plus it is unlikely that players such as Bowden and Johnson would fetch any trade value so one, and more probably both, would be around to assist regardless.
I just think we need to prepare for the future and continue to shore up our list with quality youth that will be part of our team when we are a legitimate chance to challenge and players such as Browny, Bowden and Johnson do not offer enough positive leadership/experience that could be covered by younger players, to warrant us not at least trying to trade them.
Stripes
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Agree to disagree. :thumbsup
No, no, no Smokey. You are doing it all wrong! Haven't you read other people's posts around here when they have disagreed? You are meant to call me names and swear! This civil, intelligent debating just won't do. ;) ;D
Stripes
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you blokes need to fire up :lol
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Agree to disagree. :thumbsup
[/quote]
No, no, no Smokey. You are doing it all wrong! Haven't you read other people's posts around here when they have disagreed? You are meant to call me names and swear! This civil, intelligent debating just won't do. ;) ;D
Stripes
[/quote]
For a minute there I thought I was on the wrong site lol :)
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Agree to disagree. :thumbsup
No, no, no Smokey. You are doing it all wrong! Haven't you read other people's posts around here when they have disagreed? You are meant to call me names and swear! This civil, intelligent debating just won't do. ;) ;D
Stripes
Nah, I'm just doing what Kane Johnson does - lead by example.
;D ;D ;D
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I think we can make a judgement by the end of 09 - Maybe strectchhhhh to 2010 - DAMN straight by 2011 -
Enough excuses and waiting :banghead !
My opinion, will be very very surprised if we don't make the 8 next year - VERY.
On the priviso we get off to a good start next year to carry on the momentum as well as have a similar good run with injuries again especially Simmo playing nearly all of the H/A season.
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Here's what the ages of our current list will be at Round 22, 2011 (current number of games).
I've left out Tivs, Hyde, Petts and rookies Howat, Silvester and Cartledge plus Polak who we don't know if he'll ever play again. Obviously there'll be others (oldies and fringe players) who will be gone by 2011 but this is only meant to be a guide for discussion.
36: Richo (276)
33: Bowden (253), Browny (206), Johnson (220), Simmonds (179)
29: Coughlan (83), Newman (133), Tuck (91)
28: McMahon (136)
27: King (33), Moore (46)
26: Schulz (67)
25: Foley (70), Jackson (47), Meyer (17), Pattison (53), Polo (31), Raines (53), Thursfield (40)
24: Casserly (-), Deledio (84), Graham (2), Hughes (16), McGuane (32), Morton (29), Tambling (75), White (38)
23: JON (9)
22: Collard# (1), Collins (-), Connors (8 ), Edwards (32), Gourdis (-), Putt (-), Riewoldt (26)
21: Cotchin (15), Rance (-)
20: 2008 draftees
19: 2009 draftees
18: 2010 draftees
3 years away = add 66 H/A games maximum.
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3 years away = add 66 H/A games maximum.
That's a bit pessimistic
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3 years away = add 66 H/A games maximum.
That's a bit pessimistic
Nah. That's why I said H/A (home and away) games instead of just saying games up all. Finals would obviously make the maximum more than 66 :thumbsup.
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25: Foley (70), Jackson (47), Meyer (17), Pattison (53), Polo (31), Raines (53), Thursfield (40)
24: Casserly (-), Deledio (84), Graham (2), Hughes (16), McGuane (32), Morton (29), Tambling (75), White (38)
This is clearly the core of the side for the future.
The like of McGaune, Thursfield, Pattison / White, Foley, Tambling, Morton, Polo, Raines etc. is going to be the backbone of the side.
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25: Foley (70), Jackson (47), Meyer (17), Pattison (53), Polo (31), Raines (53), Thursfield (40)
24: Casserly (-), Deledio (84), Graham (2), Hughes (16), McGuane (32), Morton (29), Tambling (75), White (38)
This is clearly the core of the side for the future.
The like of McGaune, Thursfield, Pattison / White, Foley, Tambling, Morton, Polo, Raines etc. is going to be the backbone of the side.
Not all of them will make and we need more A-grade star quality but a decent enough and good sized core to build around when you add the Cotchin/Jack group 2-3 years younger. Also shows the importance of the next 2-3 drafts as the second wave needs to complete our list deficiencies - rucks, big key forward and another gun ballwinner or two.
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Interesting that Gourdis and Putt are noticably older than Rance and Cotchin take in the same draft. I would hope that Putt would become our future Ruckman and Gourdis a KPF but only time will tell. Do you think Browny, Johnson, Bowden and Simmonds will still be there at 33yrs old?
Stripes
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Do you think Browny, Johnson, Bowden and Simmonds will still be there at 33yrs old?
Joel and Sugar will be gone by the end of next year you'd think.
Simmo could still be around as a 33 y.o. ruckman but, as we've seen this year with Everitt (34) and Lade (32), he'd be nearing the end and probably prone to soft-tissue injuries if he was. I'd doubt he could still be our first ruck by 2011.
Browny said he still feels he has got 3-4 years left in him as he's missed a few years of footy due to his broken leg and complications coming back. However, once you get over 30 soft-tissue injuries can end your footy career pretty quickly. He missed the last couple of games with a sore spot in his good leg.
So maybe Browny and Simmo could be around in a couple of years time if they have a mostlly injury free run but I think none of them will. The elder statesmen in 3 years will be Newy and Tucky at 29 y.o IMO.
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Big Punt on Y&B has gone to the huge effort of posting a breakdown of every club's list in terms of average age, games played, and percentage of 18-22, 23-27 and 28+ year olds in terms of their list overall and senior side.
http://www.yellowandblack.com.au/forum/showpost.php?p=205776&postcount=1
It shows we had the equal most 18-22 y.o. in our senior side (44%, along with Carlton, Collingwood and Melbourne) and the 2nd least 23-27 y.o. (36%, behind Melbourne).
Pretty much confirms that while other clubs claim they have younger lists (Richo and co. skew our average higher), we had one of the youngest sides running around each and every week this year. In 3-4 years time, our currently deep 18-22 age bracket will mature together into the important 23-27 range that top sides have.
The Hawks have a young list (even younger on average now with Crawf gone) but they still had over half of their senior side in this peak age bracket which won them the flag.
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Carlton and Hawthorn will be the biggest threat in the next 3/4 years to our success. Can not stand either team but both seem to have a multitude of young talent and some standout stars mixed in.
We need some stars to emerge from our potentials
Stripes
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Carlton and Hawthorn will be the biggest threat in the next 3/4 years to our success. Can not stand either team but both seem to have a multitude of young talent and some standout stars mixed in.
We need some stars to emerge from our potentials
Stripes
Yep we need to add more class. Carlton's top 6 are strong but they fall away in talent pretty quickly. For them to make the next jump into the Eight they need their next tier to step up consistently and they need to find other options at the bookends. They're too reliant on Fev and their defence is light on.
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Ramps, the Brown theory is a sensible option. If we want to be brutal we should really do this with all our older players with the exception of Simmonds, who we can't replace currently, and maybe Richo. Brown, Bowden and Johnson will not be around in 2-3 years so we should be thinking about shoring up our list for the future now.
Stripes
Stripes im no expert, I just come in here to give my opinion and thats it, in the end, it wont make one iota of difference, but If I had a say then Brown would be going up for trade and Johnson would have retired this year. Richo, Bowden and Simmonds will retire at Richmond. Brown is the only player of our senior group that is now tradeable. If we were a ruthless club we would do it and indeed Id suggest we need to do it- for all the reasons mentioned earlier ie. Age of Brown, where we are in the cycle, how far we are away from a proper tilt ... someone at Richmond needs to show some balls and make a hard decision.
Im not so sure we have to make hard decisions on our older players. The hard decisions are with the players under 23 that may or may not make it. They are the ones that matter, let the older players retire gracefully, the hard decisions on older players were made with gaspar and kellaway already.
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25: Foley (70), Jackson (47), Meyer (17), Pattison (53), Polo (31), Raines (53), Thursfield (40)
24: Casserly (-), Deledio (84), Graham (2), Hughes (16), McGuane (32), Morton (29), Tambling (75), White (38)
This is clearly the core of the side for the future.
The like of McGaune, Thursfield, Pattison / White, Foley, Tambling, Morton, Polo, Raines etc. is going to be the backbone of the side.
Not all of them will make and we need more A-grade star quality but a decent enough and good sized core to build around when you add the Cotchin/Jack group 2-3 years younger. Also shows the importance of the next 2-3 drafts as the second wave needs to complete our list deficiencies - rucks, big key forward and another gun ballwinner or two.
Vickery / Browne
Post
Cousins / Thomson / Hislop
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25: Foley (70), Jackson (47), Meyer (17), Pattison (53), Polo (31), Raines (53), Thursfield (40)
24: Casserly (-), Deledio (84), Graham (2), Hughes (16), McGuane (32), Morton (29), Tambling (75), White (38)
This is clearly the core of the side for the future.
The like of McGaune, Thursfield, Pattison / White, Foley, Tambling, Morton, Polo, Raines etc. is going to be the backbone of the side.
Not all of them will make and we need more A-grade star quality but a decent enough and good sized core to build around when you add the Cotchin/Jack group 2-3 years younger. Also shows the importance of the next 2-3 drafts as the second wave needs to complete our list deficiencies - rucks, big key forward and another gun ballwinner or two.
Vickery / Browne
Post
Cousins / Thomson / Hislop
Yes we did target our needs ;) (thanks for bumping this up Bents ) but it's still yet to be seen whether we've fully solved our deficiencies. Ruckwise I would say yes we have picking up Vickery and then Browne as a rookie. I'm willing to give Postie a chance as we're hoping he'll become a key forward who can play at both ends. The issue though is we're "hoping" for a few young forward KPPs to eventually step up. No one yet has cemented their spot that you can say our forward is settled. That of course could all change next year as we were saying the same thing about our defence this time last year and Moore, Thursty and Lukey with Rance in the wings solved that concern. In terms of A-grade potential mids Thomson and Hislop aren't another Lids, Cotch or Cogs aka 2003 version. Hislop would have the most talent of the two so hopefully he rewards the Club that has given him a second and final chance. Cousins is an unknown and even so best case scenario is a 3-4 year option at the most. We'd need to win the flag within the next 2 years to gain the most onfield from Cuz. I still think in next year's draft we will be targetting a key forward and another gun mid for our list. The job isn't done yet but we're looking good.