Author Topic: Moneyball Meets AFL  (Read 1150 times)

Offline Smokey

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Moneyball Meets AFL
« on: January 25, 2014, 01:39:13 PM »
The new Moneyball: scouting's next step

Callum Twomey  January 24, 2014 9:00 PM


NEW SCOUTING technology ranking players based on how many wins they can provide a team is sweeping through AFL clubs as list management departments look to gain an advantage.
 
More than a third of the League's clubs – with more set to join before the season starts – are using the recruiting tool developed by Australian-based baseball scouts Brett Ward and Jon Deeble and their company Aphex.
 
Ward is a top international scout for MLB side the Baltimore Orioles and Deeble, a former Australian pitcher and current national team coach, is a coordinator for the Red Sox Pacific Rim region. Both are lifelong AFL fans.
 
The Aphex software uses competition-wide data based on a formula built by the pair plus their own form of 'Moneyball', the revolutionary baseball theory of recruiting players based on analytics and statistics.
 
Their version is the football WAR (Wins Against Replacements): a feature that allows teams to find the on-ground value of every player.
 
It is a tool being used through the trade and free agency period as clubs acclimatise to the less restrictive player movement era.
 
"What we're giving is a totally objective view of what value the player gives when he's on the field. Also, what we've added to that is how many wins a player is worth," Ward told AFL.com.au.
 
"For example, if a team finishes sixth or seventh and they think they need two wins to get closer to a premiership, the program can show you the player or players to go and buy who can get those two wins.
 
"It really allows clubs to take away a lot of the guess work."
 
The program is being used heavily in contracting decisions as AFL clubs weigh up how much a player is worth. AFL.com.au understands that several clubs see it as a vital step in their list management process.
 
When re-contracting a player within the club, list managers have used the program to see what it says he is worth. 
 
When deciding whether to target a player from a rival club, they can also see what his monetary value is and how much the system believes they should pay to secure his services.
 
The WAR ratings are measured using analytics and numbers from all matches, and are updated after every weekend's game. Put simply, a 'replacement' is a player who is not able to play at that standard all year, and who may be serviceable for around four or five games all year.
 
The replacement player is valued at zero, so the Wins Against a Replacement player is how the WAR is determined.
 
The higher WAR the better, and these can be tracked back five years to see if a value is declining, constant or on the rise. If declining, a recruiter can then investigate why - be it injury, off-field problems or if he is just simply past his best.
 
It helps clubs to foresee the future, of sorts. Would they agree to a long-term free agency deal if a player's value has been declining for years? Would they pay more for someone getting better?
 
The average WAR for 2013 was 0.254, meaning the average player last year was worth a quarter of a win a season.
 
The highest ranked player was worth nearly two wins, while the lowest for last year was -0.306. There are many players who produce a negative WAR, meaning they are actually costing their sides wins.
 
Nick Dal Santo, who crossed to North Melbourne from St Kilda last year as a restricted free agent, had a WAR of 1.2406. Other high-profile recruits, including new Greater Western Sydney pair Heath Shaw (0.8819) and Shane Mumford (0.7793), were lower.

The highest-profile player to switch clubs last year was goal kicking star Lance Franklin, who joined the Swans with a WAR of 0.8191 in 2013. However, Franklin's rating was impacted by missing games through injury and suspension.
 
"The clubs that used the WAR last year, they're huge on it with their scouts to see what 'values up' under their system," Ward said.
 
New Bomber and three-time Geelong premiership player Paul Chapman represents another layer of complexity.
 
The WAR includes a dollar value on every game each player plays. Chapman is considered "enormous value" when he is fit and out there, and while his WAR was 0.1749 in 2013 (because he only played eight games), the software says his actual value per game is over $25,000 for the team.
 
This makes him a very valuable commodity for Essendon. If, for instance, Chapman is being paid $300,000 a season by his new club, he will need to play just 12 games for them to get their money's worth. Play 20, and he is a real bargain.
 
Ward and Deeble work with the clubs to tweak the formula so they can find the players who fit their values. It helps the identification process when scouring the player market; finding someone who might not be an obvious choice, or raising questions about someone who seemed to fit. 
 
If a certain club wants players who are adept at winning contested ball, they can change the value of that key category so contested possessions are worth more.
 
If another club rates kicking accuracy as a bigger priority than contested ball, the formula can be altered. In that respect, Western Bulldogs clearance star Tom Liberatore might be high on one club's list because of his stoppage expertise, but lower on another's priorities because they may put a higher price on uncontested touches. 
 
After clubs have tailored the weightings to their own preferences, an Aphex associate with a mathematics PhD checks for anomalies, which can sometimes pop up.
 
"We've got to educate the clubs that they're buying wins, not just players at times. Sometimes you need to buy a good leader and that sort of stuff, but we need wins as well to get you up in the next echelon," Ward said.
 
One club using the program last year recruited a player from another club who had struggled to break into that side. They knew they could get him at basement price and the system showed he would provide almost one win for the season, so they signed him.
 
On the other hand, Ward and Deeble have gone back through recent years of trade periods, finding that when one particular club brought in a number of recruits at once, they totaled to just 0.4 wins.
 
It is determined purely by a player's output, and not influenced by how many wins his side actually gets in a season.

The program is a pointer to a football truism: a premiership team requires A-graders, but always includes players on minimum wage. The software aims to help clubs find who those could be, then twist and manage salaries to suit. 
 
More clubs are becoming interested, and with the program's information dating back to 2000, Ward believes they are open to the new ideas. 
 
"It's a lot easier talking to them now than it was three years ago," Ward said.
 
"A lot of people always say it's American sport you're selling us, and there's a lot more statistics in baseball. But actually, there's so many we can use in football now, there's probably the same as baseball and in some specific WARs we use more.
 
"One of the heads of a football department said 'This is Yankee crap' and I said 'Imagine if I told you back when you played that the sport scientist guys are telling you when you can train and when you can come on and off' and he said 'Good point, keep going'.
 
"Times change. Some clubs see it as American sport, but now we hear them say more that they think it can help them to just put an objective value on the player.
 
"This is just a tool to help you with your own eyes. You definitely need the scouts to see them. This will never take over what scouts do, ever. It's to back up what they've got."
 
As demand grows, so will the technology.
 
The next step is to allow clubs to get a greater insight into under-18 competitions and sharpen their draft focus.
 
Ward and Deeble have produced a formula so they can match draft prospects, at the same stage of their development, with current AFL players.
 
For instance, when recruiters watched No.1 draft pick Tom Boyd play last year in the TAC Cup, they could go to the program to see if he matched up with what Collingwood key forward Travis Cloke produced at the same age.
 
They are waiting on receiving more historical information before launching that feature.
 
Aphex is also designed to aid coaching departments, with the program able to test whether a player might be better suited to a new position on the ground by using his key statistics.
 
"We're pretty excited by what we've got," Ward says.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-01-24/the-new-moneyball

Offline Smokey

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Re: Moneyball Meets AFL
« Reply #1 on: January 26, 2014, 11:13:09 AM »
Football's born-again stars

Date
    January 26, 2014

Matt Murnane
Sports writer for The Age

Not that long ago, a player in Josh Hunt's position might not have bothered going another year.

Having plied his trade at Geelong for 198 games over 12 seasons, the easy and perhaps more popular choice would have been for Hunt to retire at age 31 - as a two-premiership hero.

Certainly Geelong supporters would have preferred him to go out that way. Then they could remember the chunky back-pocket with the booming left foot as a Cat for life - just as they do Joel Corey and Tom Harley, both of whom hung up the boots at the same age as Hunt, or Cameron Ling, who did so one year their junior.

Cats supporters might have wished the same for Paul Chapman. As a triple premiership champion, Norm Smith medallist, best and fairest winner, All-Australian and having booted four goals in a final - and his last of 251 games - no one had more reason to ''end on a high note'' than 32-year-old Chapman after 14 seasons with the club.

While he had not been at Simonds Stadium as long, it will probably be just as jarring for fans to watch James Podsiadly stand in as Adelaide's key forward at times this year.

Same goes for Western Bulldogs supporters. What will it be like seeing Daniel Cross in red and blue, without the white?

At 30, and having given the Dogs 12 years of brave and loyal service, Cross could have called it quits with 210 games and a best and fairest, rather than start again at Melbourne.

''I find it hard to believe how people can think it is time to retire just because they feel that is what is expected from them in that situation, once they get to 30-plus,'' said Cross, who is now the oldest player on Melbourne's list.

''It's something that definitely crossed my mind, the prestige of being a one-club player, but when you've got the fire and the drive to train and compete … then I don't see any reason why a player would not try to find another club that wants them.''

For whatever reason - talking from a fan's perspective more than a club's - we would rather see our favourites gone altogether and remember them for what they were.

It is hard for us to watch a player we cheered at his peak perhaps take on a reduced role, much less at a new club.

We would prefer to retain the image of a Daniel Cross diving head-first into a pack to win a ball for the Bulldogs … and no one else. But Cross is a professional footballer, and one whose passion for the lifestyle and all the physical and mental sacrifices it takes to play at the highest level is as strong as ever.

''I still really do enjoy it, and you could ask my wife that. I went out and trained as much as I ever have this off-season,'' he said.

Hunt is also a professional footballer, one with a wife and a daughter and ''not the sort of person who will walk away with what-ifs or regrets''.

''Sometimes it is great to end up a one-club player, and players out there embrace that, but I felt like I still had something to give,'' Hunt said, who has re-located his family to Sydney.

''Once I found out that Geelong wanted to go in a different direction, I had a chat to my wife and obviously having a young family as well, it's not just about me, I want them to be comfortable. Luckily they were really big on saying, 'you just do what you need to do until you can't do it any more'.''

Thankfully, the Americanisation of our sporting culture is starting to rub off on our players, clubs and fans.

It seems more accepted that our veterans, who we have loved or hated but always respected for their longevity, to go around again; even if it means changing jumpers.

The reasons are many.

The introduction of expansion clubs looking for experienced players to balance out their young lists; players using those final years to transition into coaching, if not becoming playing assistants (such as James McDonald); and also clubs putting higher value in player-to-player mentoring from veteran to youngster. There have always been clubs looking for a quick fix or needing to fill a hole in their structure - especially those in the premiership window.

But the emergence of mature-age rookies filling that breach in recent times has, by extension, shown what older players can do for teams when brought in on a short-term basis - such as ageing veterans from other clubs.

And, of course, there is free agency.

The likes of Lance Franklin, Brendon Goddard and Dale Thomas, to name just a few, exercising their free agency rights has made the appeal of being a one-club player seem far less important.

More than 50 players have changed teams since the end of 2013, either as trades, free agents or recycled players.

And so in that changing landscape, what is the big deal if Hunt, Cross and others play out the remaining years in a different jumper. Why wouldn't they?

''For a lot of the guys in my situation, it wasn't the scenario that we were after, coming to the end of our contracts at our original clubs,'' Cross said. ''But the option of free agency and delisted free agency opens up those doors for clubs looking for experience and guys who are able to pass on the benefits of their playing careers to younger guys. That is what free agency is there for, in my mind.''

No doubt the chance afforded to Hunt, and perhaps the likes of McDonald, Chad Cornes and Dean Brogan at Greater Western Sydney before him, will become more limited once the lists at the expansion clubs become more established - rather than the hybrids made up of marquee signings, the odd veteran or two and a host of top draft prospects.

Or, maybe this is just the beginning.

With 18 clubs now up and running, the talent pool at the draft is spread thinner than ever, and perhaps there has never been a greater need to find ways to encourage and promote longevity for our stars and journeymen.

To that end, the success or otherwise of this year's batch of recyclables - one of the most accomplished in years when you consider the resumes of players such as Chapman, Podsiadly, Hunt and Cross - could be crucial.

''Time will tell if it is something that will stay in vogue or something that peters out, and clubs think that it is better to just grab another kid out of the draft and develop him,'' Hunt said.

For the trend to continue, the mindset change has to be embraced by the clubs as well as the players.

For every team that decides a spot on its list is better filled by an 18-year-old, there needs to be another club in the market for a known quantity who can teach its youngsters what it takes off the field, as well as provide an immediate impact on it. Fortunately for Cross and Hunt, Melbourne and GWS are two such clubs.

More than just a cool head and kicking skills out of defence, Hunt brings with him the added know-how gained by watching close-up, and playing in, arguably the greatest team of the modern era, the core group of Cats who won three flags between 2007 and 2011.

It is a golden age that the Giants are trying to emulate themselves, having stockpiled one of the most impressive arrays of young talent yet seen.

Hunt has already been struck by their hunger - a drive to learn and be better that would have been a pre-requisite at Simonds Stadium.

''Whether it is in training or just the day-to-day stuff about what it takes … for me, when you pass on little things, it's very rewarding to then see the little progressions these young guys make,'' he said.

''Having played with the type of guys that I've played with, you learn a fair bit, and the little tips that I've tried to give, the young guys here have been great - if they want to know something they are not shy about coming up and asking.''

Providing an example of how to get the most out of yourself - a mantra Cross has lived by his entire career - is also one of the main reasons the Demons decided to extend his career.

But the hard-nut midfielder will also have another role outside of playing - providing support for Melbourne's leadership group, an area of the club that has been questioned in recent years.

''I was in the Bulldogs' leadership group for eight years and I've learnt a hell of a lot out of that, so that's another area where I can help … with a lot of different things as they come up from day-to-day,'' Cross said.

But it works both ways. Aside from extending their playing days, clubs have also given these recyclables a pathway into assistant coaching, one that Hunt is interested in pursuing once he finishes playing.

But Cross hopes to go in a different direction - the one taken by former Adelaide star Brett Burton, who is now the Brisbane Lions' physical performance manager, or fitness boss.

''I've got an exercise science background and I've got a degree in that, so that's really what interests me,'' Cross said. ''There hasn't been a whole heap of guys transitioning into that field, but what I love about footy is being able to challenge your body.''

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/footballs-bornagain-stars-20140125-31fmh.html#ixzz2rSVGmzZ4

Offline mightytiges

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Re: Moneyball Meets AFL
« Reply #2 on: January 27, 2014, 02:23:21 AM »
The average WAR for 2013 was 0.254, meaning the average player last year was worth a quarter of a win a season.
 
The highest ranked player was worth nearly two wins, while the lowest for last year was -0.306. There are many players who produce a negative WAR, meaning they are actually costing their sides wins.
Ablett must be that highest ranked player although you could argue he has been worth more than two more wins to the Suns since joining them. He's just a freak. The lowest ranked player is probably Gus lol.

Interesting to know who our highest ranked player is? Cotch based on class although his output was down from his absolute best last year. I know our recruiting department has a system where they rank every player out of 1000 with 500 being the average AFL footballer.
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