As a comparison, Winderlich last week copped a reprimand for something similar because it was judged as reckless rather than intentional conduct ...
Go to 6:00 min mark to see the vision:
http://www.afl.com.au/video/2014-04-29/the-verdict-round-sixJason Winderlich, Essendon, has been charged with a Level One Striking Offence (125 demerit points, one-match sanction) for striking Nick Maxwell, Collingwood, during the third quarter of the Round Six match between Essendon and Collingwood, played at the MCG on Friday April 25, 2014.
In summary, due to a six-year good record, he can accept a reprimand and 70.31 demerit points towards his future record with an early plea.
Based on the video evidence available and a medical report from the Collingwood Football Club, the incident was assessed as reckless conduct (two points), low impact (one point) and high contact (two points). This is a total of five activation points, resulting in a classification of a Level One Offence, drawing 125 demerit points and a one-match sanction. He has an existing six-year good record, reducing the penalty by 25 per cent to a reprimand and 93.75 points towards his future record. An early plea reduces the sanction by 25 per cent to a reprimand and 70.31 demerit points towards his future record.
http://www.3aw.com.au/blogs/3aw-football-blog/match-review-panel-round-6/20140428-37doi.html