Emma Quayle in her top 25 has us linked to either Heppell, Polec or Conca. She also believes there's at least 50 kids capable of playing AFL which is good for us with mid-draft picks 30, 47 and 51.The golden boys Emma Quayle
November 14, 2010 WHEN the big, scary Gold Coast sprang to life and was promised so many draft picks, a ripple of fear spread through the established teams. Who, the other 16 clubs wondered, would be left for them?
It's time to rest easier. While the Suns hold eight of the first 13 picks and will take a generous scoop out of the talent pool, there are still plenty of good players to go around.
It was easy to come up with a list of 50 who seem capable of playing AFL. Whether they do or not depends on what happens from here: which club picks them, how hard they work and whether the injury gods take care of them, for starters.
It will be interesting to see what effect the extended first round of the draft has on where players are picked. If a club really likes a player, it might reach for him earlier than it normally would, simply because he won't be there when their next choice comes around. There are so many midfielders of similar ability in the pool that it will also be intriguing to see how clubs split them.
This list is my personal rankings — not where I think players will be picked. In the four years I have been compiling it, there have been some hits — Cyril Rioli, Patrick Dangerfield, Tayte Pears, Levi Greenwood and Jackson Trengove are among those I ranked higher than where they were drafted — and some misses. Stephen Hill and Michael Hurley are among those I rated too low, and I'm still kicking myself for having Jordan Roughead just outside the 25 in 2008.
Apologies this year to midfielders Cam Guthrie, Mitch Hallahan, Tom Liberatore and Josh Green, the crafty Kieran Harper, forwards Lucas Cook and Luke Mitchell, and defender Jamie Cripps, the next group in line.
1. DAVID SWALLOW(Gold Coast/East Fremantle, 185cm, 86kg)
What's a fancy way to say that Swallow simply does everything a bit better than everyone else? He reads the play well, wins the ball well and can swoop on a pack and take the ball away. He's strong and quick, has endurance and makes his teammates look better because of the way he gets the ball to them. Most importantly, he has put all those qualities to use at senior level for two years. Had Josh Toy been in this draft pool, it would have been hard to let him go, but Swallow is the best, most complete player on offer.
■Where will he be picked?
No. 1 by Gold Coast.
2. SAM DAY(Sturt, 18, 196cm, 97kg)
The second-best player available, in my mind. Has showed what he can do in snippets, compared to Swallow, but is already imposing and has had a busy year playing football, basketball and baseball. Has amazing athleticism, is quick, and can get himself into the air with no help and hang there. Can play forward or back, but looks more involved - and much more dangerous - in attack. as a forward. Staying involved from start to finish is his challenge, but he has some freakish talent and could well become the best player of the draft.
■Where will he be picked?
No. 2 or No. 3 by Gold Coast.
3. HARLEY BENNELL(Peel Thunder, 18, 185cm, 75kg)
A super-quick, highly skilful midfielder and one of only a few in the draft with genuine, express pace. Give him a second to get away and he will leave you stumbling and bumbling along behind him with arms helplessly outstretched. Was challenged with a couple of heavy tags during the national under-18 games, but is very determined. Has some tricks, knows how to use them and thinks a second ahead of those around him.
■Where will he be picked?
No. 2 or No. 3 by Gold Coast.
4. SHAUN ATLEY(Murray Bushrangers, 18, 189cm, 81kg)
A personal favourite. In some early games this year, he was the one who had me repeatedly checking the jumper numbers. As an inside onballer for Vic Country, he won the ball and knew when to dig it out to a teammate or carry it out of the congestion. But he can also dash down the field and create play that way. Has a brilliant attitude and will thrive being full-time at a club. Needs to keep working on his kicking, but it's better than fine already and will improve in a full-time environment. People had the same queries about Chris Judd.
■Where will he be picked?
Big chance for Essendon at No. 8. Furthest he could get is probably Port Adelaide at No. 16.
5. DYSON HEPPELL(Gippsland Power, 18, 189cm, 80kg)
One of those players who seems to know — or decide — what will happen next. A tall onballer, he can get involved by sweeping the ball off half-back and carrying that involvement through the middle. Can read the ball well through the air, mark and knows what to do next with his long left-foot kick. An assured, grounded teenager who will be the best he can be.
■Where will he be picked?
Probably by the Brisbane Lions at No. 5.
Unlikely to get past Richmond if he's there at 6.6. TOM LYNCH(Dandenong Stingrays, 17, 199cm, 91kg)
A key forward who has emerged only in the past six months. Two years ago he was a 180-something-centimetre onballer, and the good news is he still plays like one. Reaches high to mark as if he still thinks others are as tall as him, is quick and nimble and can find the ball on the ground. As his belief grew this year, so did his willingness to use his big body in the packs. Still very raw, but is the most promising key forward in the draft.
■Where will he be picked?
A chance for the Gold Coast from picks 9-11. Melbourne would find it hard to pass him up at No. 12.
7. ANDREW GAFF(Oakleigh Chargers, 18, 182cm, 78kg)
Will get you in a death-by-a-thousand-cuts kind of way. He will run and run and run; his combination of pace and endurance will come in very handy given the changed interchange rules. Will be at every stoppage and, more crucially, his anticipation at ball-ups can be a split second ahead of everyone else. He does not possess one standout quality, but he does everything at a high level, and will work hard to be the best he can be. Amazing mental toughness.
■Where will he be picked?
Looks headed for West Coast at No. 4.
8. DANIEL GORRINGE(Norwood, 18, 200cm, 88kg)
It's hard to split Gorringe and Lycett. Has good ruck technique and gets involved after the ruck contest, like an extra midfielder. Plays with real vigour and is good beneath the knees too. Played senior footy in Adelaide, in the ruck, while only 17.
■Where will he be picked?
Maybe by the Gold Coast at No. 9, No. 10 or No. 11. A chance for Melbourne at No. 12 and Adelaide at No. 14.
9. JARED POLEC(Woodville-West Torrens, 18, 189cm, 80kg)
Rangy, running onballer who loves to run with the ball. If the goals are in sight, he'll be headed that way. Confident, good at reaching for and controlling awkward balls, and keeps his balance. Generally gets his left-footed kicks where he wants them to go, and played some good senior footy in the last part of the year. Consistent involvement in a game is his challenge.
■Where will he be picked?
Possibly by Richmond at No. 6. A chance for Essendon at No. 8 and also in the Gold Coast mix for No. 9, No. 10 or No. 11.
10. BILLIE SMEDTS(Geelong Falcons, 18, 190cm, 76kg)
A smart thinker and able to play at all parts of the ground. Could start a match keeping things under control in defence then slip forward and kick a few sneaky goals. He's really clever in tight, pressured situations, using his agility and nous to trap the ball and slide out of trouble. Has missed some footy through niggling injuries this year, which may see him slip down the order a little.
■Where will he be picked?
A chance for Geelong at No. 15 and Sydney at No. 21. Shouldn't get much further than that.
11. JOSH CADDY(Northern Knights, 18, 186cm, 82kg)
A madman midfielder who fights like crazy for the ball inside packs. Tackles and harasses, yet if he does get a few moments in the clear, plays with enough poise. Uses his height as an onballer well, makes people get out of his way and has the pace, endurance and strength to do it all at AFL level.
■Where will he be picked?
Looks headed to Gold Coast at No. 7. If not, Essendon will grab him at No. 8.
12. SEB TAPE(Glenelg, 18, 191cm, 81cm)
A player you can trust. You'll want the ball in his hands. The question is whether he's tall enough to play in a key position, but he looks so calm and skilful cruising out of defence. Those who know him rate his leadership qualities, his bravery and he never loses his cool.
■Where will he be picked?
Tape is hard to pick. Several clubs have him in their mix. He could go to Gold Coast early and, if not, either of the South Australian clubs look his likely home, Adelaide especially. Furthest he could get is probably Sydney at 21.
13. JAYDEN PITT(Geelong Falcons, 18, 189cm, 70kg)
One of the best kicks in the draft. Can deliver cleanly off half-back or bamboozle opponents with his light feet and cleverness around the half-forward line. Could push up onto a wing, where his ability to grab an overhead mark would be a real asset. Very, very classy and creative. Just needs a few kilos.
■Where will he be picked?
Has Gold Coast written all over him at 9, 10, 11 or - probably - 13.
14. SCOTT LYCETT(Port Adelaide Magpies, 18, 202cm, 98kg)
Already enormous, and could become even more of a monster. Needs to keep working on his kicking, though there's no major flaw there. He's agile, can stretch and lunge, pick up loose balls on the run and keep moving. Can go forward and haul in a mark, and loves a contest. I look forward to seeing him and Western Bulldog Ayce Cordy go at it in years to come.
■Where will he be picked?
Possibly by the Gold Coast at No. 9, No. 10 or No. 11. A chance for Melbourne at 12. Hard to see him getting past Port Adelaide at No. 16.
15. JED LAMB(Gippsland Power, 18, 181cm, 79kg)
Mr X factor. The plethora of midfielders available could see him slip down the order, but has huge natural talent and the ability to turn a game. As a forward, is a smart lead who can kick goals from all imaginable angles. Knows how to get involved on a wing too. Likeable, enthusiastic and, while flashy, is also very determined.
■Where will he be picked?
A chance in the late teens, perhaps to North Melbourne or Hawthorn. Beyond there, could be considered by Sydney at No. 21 or St Kilda at No. 24.
16. ISAAC SMITH(North Ballarat, 21, 187cm, 77kg)
Fearless midfielder who creates a bit of mayhem with his quick, long steps and willingness to run and bounce. After Bennell, probably the most dashing player in the draft, and a real bolter having been plucked from Redan to join North Ballarat's VFL team late in the season.
■Where will he be picked?
Big chance for Geelong at No. 15. Gold Coast or Adelaide may even take a look before then. If not, it's hard to see North Melbourne overlooking him at No. 17.
17. DION PRESTIA(Calder Cannons, 18, 174cm, 82kg)
What's not to like about this kid? Had some hamstring problems mid-year but came back to play some great finals footy. Wins the ball, has some pace off the mark and is powerful, with a nice sidestep in traffic, a thumping kick that he uses well and a very direct game: he takes off and goes for home.
■Where will he be picked?
In the mix for Essendon and Melbourne at picks No. 8 and No. 12 respectively. Could slide, but only as far as the mid-20s.
18. BRODIE SMITH(Woodville-West Torrens, 18, 189cm, 78kg)
A skilful midfielder who can win the ball in contested situations and use it well bursting from the pack. His first steps are quick and he has a calm, low key nature which helps in the hurly burly of the packs. Diligent, a touted leader and you get the feeling there will never be too big a gap between his best and worst games.
■Where will he be picked?
A chance for Melbourne at No. 12, Adelaide at No. 14. Port would find him hard to pass up at No. 16.
19. MITCH WALLIS(Calder Cannons, 17, 185cm, 80kg)
Headed to the Western Bulldogs as a father-son pick. Could well follow in father Steve's footsteps and captain the Doggies one day. Mature, smart and a midfield accumulator who brings others into the play. Not overly quick, but has worked hard to become a more damaging outside player this year. Very reliable: he just plays well.
■Where will he be picked?
Already has been: the Bulldogs pledged to use pick No. 24 on him during father-son bidding.
20. PAT McCARTHY(Glenelg, 18, 196cm, 85kg)
Has a few centimetres on Glenelg teammate Tape and, like him, reads the play well and can take a mark. Spent time in the ruck when younger and can also go forward and have an influence. Skilful, athletic and kind of soothing: can calm things down by taking a mark then stepping back to assess things.
■Where will he be picked?
Has a real Carlton look about him and is a chance for the Blues at No. 18. Hawthorn at No. 19 will also take a serious look.
21. JACK DARLING(West Perth, 18, 191cm, 87kg)
The mystery man of the draft who, this time last year, may have been a top-five pick. There are many questions about Darling — his height as a key forward, his midfield potential, his off-field mishaps — but he can take a mark, kick a goal, and play with aggression. Athletically he ticks all the boxes, with his speed and endurance right up there. Has been in the system so long he's given people plenty of time to analyse his flaws — a little like Michael Hurley two years ago. Needs to settle down off the field, but finally getting to go to a club will do him good.
■Where will he be picked?
Won't go to Gold Coast, which will nudge him down the order. Could go to Melbourne at No. 12 or Carlton at No. 18, but could even get to the mid-20s. Hard to predict.
22. MATTHEW WATSON(Calder Cannons, 18, 195cm, 102kg)
Big, bulky backman who is the most powerful defender in the pool and the one most likely to play genuinely at centre half-back. Can look a little slow, though he reads the play brilliantly. His key feature, though, is his kicking — he picks where the ball's going, spoils, gets it back and thumps it to centre half-forward. There's no need for a midfield when he's at his best.
■Where will he be picked?
Carlton is a strong chance at No. 18. Gold Coast a possibility before then, and Melbourne may also take a look. If not, should be gone in the 20s.
23. REECE CONCA(Perth, 18, 185cm, 79kg)
Add him to the list of solid, safe midfield bets. Goes after the ball when it's his turn, uses it well and can play in all parts of the ground. Keeps running, and plays with some burst. Perhaps doesn't have the polish of some of the other onballers, but is neat and a safe mark. Impressive attitude helps push him up the order.
■Where will he be picked?
High. He's been talked about as a chance for Richmond at No. 6, and will possibly head to the Gold Coast at No. 9, No. 10, No. 11 or No. 13.
24. BEN JACOBS(Sandringham Dragons, 18, 186cm, 82kg)
A natural ball-winner — just keeps getting it, wherever he's playing. Can play off half-back or through the middle and has worked hard at his deficiencies. Most notably,hired a sprint coach when told last year that his pace needed improvement. Has a nice, long kick, is strong willed and take his footy seriously.
■Where will he be picked?
Might be looked at by Adelaide at No. 14, or Melbourne before then, but could well be the midfielder who slips a bit and gets picked up in the early 20s.
25. LUKE PARKER(Dandenong Stingrays, 18, 183cm, 81kg)
It was so hard to split Hallahan, Guthrie and Parker. Each will give absolutely everything and I'd be happy with any of them. In the midfield, Parker fights hard for the ball and can also slip forward to kick goals. He's trustworthy, has enduranace, his marking overhead is a strength and the Stingrays rate his leadership potential highly. Teammates and supporters will love how quietly and diligently he goes about things, and how relentlessly he competes.
■Where will he be picked?
A chance for Port Adelaide at 16, as is Dandenong teammate Hallahan. Beyond there should be gone by the mid 20s.
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