Tall timber has power to bring home the baconTed Hopkins
The Age
July 19, 2011The Pressure Footy gauge is designed to help explain why teams win and lose. Hence, the TedRatings metrics we use focus on the quality influences upon a game on the one hand and the seriousness of the stuff-ups on the other.
As such we differ from the official statistics, which count each statistical category as 'equal in value.' As indicated in the info section, we rate possessions and disposals on a scale of positive and negative values according to team benefit rules. We even have a category that is 'zero-rated' disposal allocated for disposals that have little purpose other than retaining possession.
Unapologetically, we ignore a lot of the junk play dutifully included in the official tables. Why does this matter? We look for insights that can tell the story of what really happened in a game.
Button 2 explores Richmond's demoralising 15-point loss to Gold Coast. In losing games the Suns had been clearly outnumbered for positive category disposals. However, not against the Tigers, who managed to concede the new franchise a significant advantage in +2 and +3 disposals. It was the Suns who were breaking the lines in tricky wind conditions and executing key kicks in the forward line. Meanwhile, the Tigers had the clear majority of ball possession but were ineffective in making territory gains. Consequently, Richmond paid a heavy price.
Ted Hopkins' book The Stats Revolution is here:
http://www.tedsport.com.au/thestatsrevolutionFull article at: http://www.theage.com.au/afl/tall-timber-has-power-to-bring-home-the-bacon-20110718-1hlk9.html#ixzz1STf7oLvT
