Emma Quayle, The Age's resident expert on the AFL draft, predicts how tonight's opening round may pan out.2011 National Draft Round 1
November 24, 20111.
GWS
JONATHON PATTONVITAL INFORMATION From Eastern Ranges, 18, 197cm, 101kg. Monster marking forward.
THE RATIONALE He'll hold their forward line together for the next decade.
BEST-LAID PLANS With five picks in a row, the order means little and Stephen Coniglio could get the nod. Both would deserve the honour.
2.
GWS
STEPHEN CONIGLIOVITAL INFORMATION From Swan Districts, 17, 182cm, 82kg. Bouncy, spirited onballer with great pace and goal sense.
THE RATIONALE One of the best two players on offer. Can create play like few others.
BEST-LAID PLANS He could switch spots with Patton.
3.
GWS
DOM TYSONVITAL INFORMATION From Oakleigh Chargers, 18, 186cm, 80kg. Inside midfielder with brains, vision and skill.
THE RATIONALE Excellent player who has improved all year. Will do his job in the midfield every week, and be a leader. A sure bet.
BEST-LAID PLANS The order could be shuffled, but he's heading north.
4.
GWS
MATTHEW BUNTINEVITAL INFORMATION From Dandenong Stingrays, 18, 189cm, 84kg. Defender who reads the play well and protects teammates.
THE RATIONALE Future leader who, as a defensive marshal with a senior-ready body, also fills a need on their list.
BEST-LAID PLANS Again, the order might be shuffled.
5.
GWS
WILL HOSKIN-ELLIOTTVITAL INFORMATION From Western Jets, 18, 186cm, 73kg. Tall, exciting wingman with a thumping right-foot kick.
THE RATIONALE One of the most exciting players in the pool, with huge scope for improvement.
BEST-LAID PLANS He seems a safe top-five pick, unless the Giants roll the dice and try to get him past Port Adelaide.
6.
PORT ADELAIDE
CHAD WINGARDVITAL INFORMATION From Sturt, 18, 182cm, 77kg. Brave, clever midfielder.
THE RATIONALE Highly talented player, and the Power needs more of them. It's a bonus that he's local.
BEST-LAID PLANS Things could start getting messy from here, with Devon Smith, Toby Greene and Liam Sumner all possibilities.
7.
GWS
ADAM TOMLINSONVITAL INFORMATION From Oakleigh Chargers, 18, 192cm, 88kg. Key forward/backman with a massive workrate.
THE RATIONALE They need to get a couple more talls through the door. Picking Tomlinson here means the Brisbane Lions can't nab him.
BEST-LAID PLANS The Giants are keen on others – Devon Smith, Taylor Adams, Billy Longer, and so on. They could shake the order up.
8.
BRISBANE LIONS
TOBY GREENEVITAL INFORMATION From Oakleigh Chargers, 18, 180cm, 76kg. Inside midfielder who gets first hands to the ball.
THE RATIONALE The Lions need new blood for most parts of the ground. At pick eight, they need to pick the best player on offer.
BEST-LAID PLANS Nick Haynes and Sam Docherty are both chances here, with Billy Longer and Devon Smith considerations too.
9.
GWS
DEVON SMITHVITAL INFORMATION From Geelong Falcons, 18, 174cm, 76kg. Smart, creative, goalkicking midfielder/forward.
THE RATIONALE Offers something different to Dom Tyson, Stephen Coniglio and the onballers already at the club.
BEST-LAID PLANS Could switch spots with Nick Haynes, or be gone to Port Adelaide or Brisbane. The order from 9-11 could also be shuffled.
10.
GWS
BILLY LONGERVITAL INFORMATION From Northern Knights, 18, 201cm, 97kg. Athletic ruckman who gets around the ground with ease.
THE RATIONALE The premier ruckman in the pool. If the Giants get him past the Lions at eight, shouldn't take the risk again.
BEST-LAID PLANS Solid bet to go to the Giants, but there's some risk Brisbane or Port will have taken him.
11.
GWS
LIAM SUMNERVITAL INFORMATION From the Sandringham Dragons, 18, 178cm, 71kg. Midfielder who is tough on the inside, smooth on the outside.
THE RATIONALE Like Devon Smith, offers something different to the Giants' other onballers with his spark and speed.
BEST-LAID PLANS Port showed some early interest.
12.
BRISBANE LIONS
SAM DOCHERTYVITAL INFORMATION from Gippsland Power, 18, 185cm, 83kg. Skilful running defender.
THE RATIONALE the Lions have been keen on him for a while. Again, they just need to get talent in.
BEST-LAID PLANS Brisbane's also big on Nick Haynes as a key forward target. He could go here, which would probably see Docherty get to the Western Bulldogs at 17.
13.
GWS
NICK HAYNESVITAL INFORMATION from Dandenong Stingrays, 19, 192cm, 78kg. Forward who loves a contested mark.
THE RATIONALE the Giants are big fans, and could do with getting one more tall in.
BEST-LAID PLANS he may be gone, to Brisbane. This would bring Hayden Crozier into the mix at this pick.
14.
GWS
TAYLOR ADAMSVITAL INFORMATION From Geelong Falcons, 18, 179cm, 80kg. Tough, determined inside midfielder.
THE RATIONALE If they miss out on Toby Greene, Adams comes in as the second inside onballer. A great kid who'll slot in easily.
BEST-LAID PLANS Adams scored a late invite to the draft, which suggests he's a safe bet. Richmond and Fremantle also keen.
15.
RICHMOND
BRANDON ELLIS
VITAL INFORMATION From Calder Cannons, 18, 181cm, 83kg. Backline desperado who kicks beautifully.
THE RATIONALE A good kid, a tough kid and a kid who can kick. The Tigers need to keep bringing skill in, and he has it.
BEST-LAID PLANS He's likely to be there, but if not someone such as Sam Docherty, Nick Haynes or Hayden Crozier could squeeze out of the first 14.16.
FREMANTLE
CLAY SMITHVITAL INFORMATION From Gippsland Power, 18, 180cm, 78kg. Tough inside midfielder who plays with passion.
THE RATIONALE The Dockers are after an inside midfielder. They probably need to get one here, because Smith won't be there at their next pick, 20.
BEST-LAID PLANS Brandon Ellis is a chance here too, as is Daniel Markworth. They'd love Taylor Adams.
17.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
HAYDEN CROZIERVITAL INFORMATION From Eastern Ranges, 17, 185cm, 68kg. Creative, artistic half-forward.
THE RATIONALE The Dogs love him. Needs time to develop, but has a lot of skill and could grow into an exciting midfielder.
BEST-LAID PLANS The Dogs are also keen on the bigger bodies of Clay Smith and Brandon Ellis. If available, they're chances here. Sam Docherty may slide to here too.
18.
NORTH MELBOURNE
JOSH BOOTSMAVITAL INFORMATION From South Fremantle, 18, 190cm, 74kg. Running defender with skill and poise.
THE RATIONALE The Roos are big fans of the West Australian, who burst onto the scene late.
BEST-LAID PLANS Elliott Kavanagh is a massive chance here. Sam Docherty and Brandon Ellis will tempt, if available, and Daniel Markworth too.
19.
ESSENDON
ELLIOTT KAVANAGHVITAL INFORMATION From Western Jets, 18, 184cm, 75kg. Midfielder who wins his own ball and can hurt teams with it.
THE RATIONALE Best player on the board, despite his hamstring troubles this year, and a player who fits the Bombers' needs precisely.
BEST-LAID PLANS May be gone to North. Onballers Sam Kerridge, Sebastian Ross and Tom Sheridan are other chances, as is Daniel Markworth.
20.
FREMANTLE
DANIEL MARKWORTHVITAL INFORMATION From Calder Cannons, 19, 191cm, 78kg. Quick, bouncy half-forward who can slip into the midfield.
THE RATIONALE The Dockers really like him and had him in their mix for pick 16.
BEST-LAID PLANS North might grab him, and Essendon will take a look too. Josh Bootsma is a chance here too.
21.
SYDNEY
TOM MITCHELL (father/son)VITAL INFORMATION From Claremont, 18, 180cm, 73kg. Onballer who loves it inside the packs.
THE RATIONALE He's done and dusted as a father-son recruit.
BEST-LAID PLANS None. The Swans secured him last month.
22.
CARLTON
JORDAN MURDOCHVITAL INFORMATION From Glenelg, 19, 191cm, 80kg. Super-quick forward who can slip upfield.
THE RATIONALE The Blues have no pressing needs. Murdoch would add something new to their forward line mix, as well as some pace into their midfield.
BEST-LAID PLANS West Australian key forward Fraser McInnes is a massive chance here. Clay Smith will appeal if he slides.
23.
WEST COAST
JACKSON MERRETTVITAL INFORMATION From Geelong Falcons, 18, 183cm, 72kg. Speedy wingman with good skill.
THE RATIONALE The Eagles have a lot of young inside midfielders. Merrett would complement them. With St Kilda keen, might need to pick him here rather than at No. 28.
BEST-LAID PLANS Jordan Murdoch, Bradley Hill and Murray Newman are others the club likes.
24.
GOLD COAST
HENRY SCHADEVITAL INFORMATION From North Hobart, 196cm, 80kg. Strong, spoiling defender with a nice left-foot kick.
THE RATIONALE The Suns are big fans, and as a key back he's also someone they need.
BEST-LAID PLANS On the off chance he's gone, players such as Bradley Hill and Elliott Yeo will come into the mix.
25.
ST KILDA
TODD ELTONVITAL INFORMATION From Dandenong Stingrays, 18, 197cm, 92kg. A very athletic forward/ruckman.
THE RATIONALE The Saints could do anything here. But it's not often you get a shot at someone with as much athletic potential as Elton.
BEST-LAID PLANS Jackson Merrett and Brad McKenzie are other chances here as are key backs Michael Talia and Sam Frost.
26.
RICHMOND
BRAD McKENZIE
VITAL INFORMATION From Sturt, 18, 188cm, 76kg. A super-smart utility with one of the best kicks in the draft.
THE RATIONALE He's another highly skilled player the Tigers could slip into their side.
BEST-LAID PLANS WA forward Shane Kersten, if available, could come into play here.27.
ADELAIDE
SAM KERRIDGEVITAL INFORMATION From Bendigo Pioneers. 18, 188cm, 86kg.
THE RATIONALE The Crows, although keen to boost their backline, are Kerridge fans and won't get him through to pick 41.
BEST-LAID PLANS Defenders Sam Frost, Alex Forster and Michael Talia are others linked to the club, as well as running back Jimmy Webster.
28.
WEST COAST
BRADLEY HILLVITAL INFORMATION From West Perth. 18, 179cm, 71kg. Midfielder with a huge engine.
THE RATIONALE The Eagles have long been keen, and probably won't get him with their next pick.
BEST-LAID PLANS Small forward Murray Newman could also go here, or one of the key backs – Sam Frost or Michael Talia.
29.
FREMANTLE
SHANE KERSTENVITAL INFORMATION From South Fremantle, 18, 191cm, 92kg. Forward who is powerful on the lead.
THE RATIONALE He was in the mix at 20, so he'll be hard to pass here.
BEST-LAID PLANS He may be gone, with Richmond in particular a chance. The Dockers may grab a midfielder - if so, Brad McKenzie, Tom Sheridan or Mitch Grigg.
30.
BRISBANE LIONS
TOM DOWNIEVITAL INFORMATION From North Ballarat Rebels, 18, 203cm, 94kg. Former national level junior basketballer who has played just a handful of games of footy.
THE RATIONALE The Lions need to get one or two rucks in. Downie has a lot of athletic potential and won't make it to their next pick, 47.
BEST-LAID PLANS Henry Schade, should the Gold Coast somehow pass, is a chance here.
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