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History against Hawthorn, North Melbourne and St Kilda Sam Edmund
From: Herald Sun
May 11, 2012 HAWTHORN, North Melbourne and St Kilda sit outside the top eight - and if history is any guide they may struggle to get in.
There is a mountain of football still to be played, but the composition of the top eight is nearly set in stone more than three months out from the finals.
Statistics reveal that only a select few sides have been able to fight their way back into finals contention after Round 6.
Just three times since 1999 have three or more sides returned to the top eight before September. In four years only one has managed to squeeze in.
It doesn't paint the rosiest of pictures for the Hawks, Kangaroos and Saints, despite the trio sitting a game outside the top bracket.
Richmond has had a brutal opening draw and is only two games out.Hawthorn, the pre-season premiership favourite, is considered a virtual certainty to force its way in, but who falls out?
Essendon has defied predictions, while Adelaide has lost only once all year after a flawless NAB Cup campaign.
The Dockers have injury concerns, but still have nine home games to look forward to and only the extremely brave would bet against Geelong not making it.
That leaves Collingwood. The Pies have been battered by injury and hit with the toughest draw. Nathan Buckley's men have to play Carlton, Geelong, Hawthorn, West Coast (away) and Essendon before the year is out.
The Hawks have a soft six weeks on the horizon before confronting Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Sydney and West Coast in the second half of the season.
Hawthorn supporters will point to Sydney, which in 2005 sat outside the top eight after Round 6, but stormed back to not only make the finals but win the premiership.
In 1999 Carlton regrouped after half a dozen matches to contest the Grand Final against North Melbourne.
They are the exceptions.
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Which top eight team will drop out before the finals?West Coast
Carlton
Sydney
Essendon
Adelaide
Geelong
Fremantle
Collingwood
None
Which team currently outside the top eight will make the finals?St Kilda
North Melbourne
Hawthorn
Richmond
W Bulldogs
Brisbane Lions
Port Adelaide
None
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/afl/more-news/history-against-hawthorn-north-melbourne-and-st-kilda/story-e6frf9jf-1226352446914
