Consistency of effort. The stats don't lie.

[tiga]

Just finished watching the replay of the Hawks game for about the 5th time and still enjoyed every minute. As many have said previously, one of the first really ferocious 4 quarter hit outs seen in a long long time. We are also showing a consistency of effort which has been missing for 32 years, including when we played in finals last in 2001 which brings me to my case in point.

In 2001 I personally I thought were were winning by playing pretty ugly footy. However, the true warning signs for our future sustainability in that year were in our losses and it is very clearly shown in the stats. Now whilst we ended up with a percentage of around 107 there are two very important averages which I need to highlight. (2001 stats include the 3 finals games)

In 2001 we were winning by an average of 28.4 points but we were losing by an average of 47.6 points

in 2012 so far we have completely reversed the trend. We have a percentage of 110 (Already 3 points higher than 2001). We are winning by an average of 46.75 points and losing by only 20.8 points. What makes these stats more exciting is that we have played most of the heavy hitters in the comp already and have not yet played the minnows in Gold Coast & GWS.

Now irrespective of how many games we win this year, if we are able to maintain our current trend for the rest of 2012, I am certain another Grand Final victory for us is not too far away.

FYI, in 1980 we finished with a percentage of around 138. Including finals games, we won by an average of 51.55 points and lost by an average of 24 points.

2012 is already showing that our winning average is getting close to the magic year of 1980 and our losing average is currently sitting about 8 points better than what we finished with in 1980. 

[JVT]

Love your work tiga 

[Stripes]

Very interesting. I think the other thing it does show is the change in the game as a whole and in particular our focus as a side also - defensive structures is the new Black. Our number one priority is stopping the opposition scoring and pressuring them into turnovers. Our next priority is when the ball is in dispute and our last priority is when the ball is in our hands. Compare that with even 10 years a go.

We are finally catching up to the best and starting to show how we can surpass them. Individual development and list management to compliment Dimma's game plan is why we are is such a healthy position and I can't see us dropping away from here 

[DCrane]

In 2001 I personally I thought were were winning by playing pretty ugly footy.

True, we were grinding out wins against ordinary sides in '01, not thrashing them. From memory we had a great run in '01 with running into teams whose best players were out through injury or suspension. Everything went right for us in 2001, yet every single one of us on this forum knew for the whole season that we were 10 goals away from the top two sides.

This year, we know that we are only 10 points away from the top sides. This team will not be intimidated by the big names or the form sides of the comp like the team of '01 were.

Sustainability is an interesting question. I can't describe it but this seems to be the most genuine and sustainable rise in form that I have seen. 2001 was great, 2005 was huge early, but when Nathan Brown went down, we were instantly exposed for class. This form is more evenly spread and less reliant on superstar individual players.

Now irrespective of how many games we win this year, if we are able to maintain our current trend for the rest of 2012, I am certain another Grand Final victory for us is not too far away.

Not too far away? Can you be a little more specific? Are you suggesting September 2012?
I agree with Scott Watters in that this years ladder is a 'once every 15 years' evenly spread competition and we would be foolish to rule out having a tilt at it. 

[Hellenic Tiger]

I'll be more specific for what its worth DC.

September 2012 Position 6-10
September 2013 Position 4-6
September 2013 Position 1-4

I hope where I think we will be at in September two years from now comes earlier than that and who knows if we have taken a next step possibly we may fastrack our way through a few more and get there to challenge as a serious contender quicker but for now I'm happy with the above estimations and the way we are travelling.

[mightytiges]

Spot on tiga. In 2001 we lost to all the top sides around us badly - Essendon, Brisbane, Hawthorn and Port. Despite officially finishing 3rd we were never a serious contender for the flag. What's more we lost Benny Gale and Brodders who retired while Knighter and others were getting on which lead to us falling off the edge back to mediocrity the following year. This current side is young and still has plenty of upside, has more class especially in the midfield and has been competitive in all the games so far with no floggings.

[DCrane]

September 2012 Position 6-10
September 2013 Position 4-6
September 2013 Position 1-4

I know I'm getting over excited but this season is wide open. Your thoughts are far more realistic though Tucker and good on you for keepin it real(ish).

But, while we are furiously agreeing with each other on how solid our growth and development has been, I shudder to think what would happen to the backline if (god forbid) Rance went down. We can cover most spots, except for Rance and Maric.

[dwaino]

Just on the topic of stats, did anyone catch Insider on Fox las night? Kingy did some pretty good break downs. He showed us as the top team to score on a turn over in the area between the centre boundaries and the corridor. But he also showed we were the top team for conceding scores from turning it over in the centre corridor. I found this interesting because an observation I made on the weekend and I assume would be bleeding obvious to everyone else too, is that we are still over using the footy. Our game style is keepers off and through the guts. Whether running it or playing hot potato and passing it around. There becomes a point and it's more apparent when watching the replay when the moment of over use becomes apparent. You see us zigging and zagging, chipping and handballing, then a bunch of really offensive options when attacking mids free up or the defenders stream through. The window is short and we are still missing it far too often by one extra handball or a cute kick. Last year this was killing us but this year it's finally clear what the plan is. I believe it's just an experience thing. Once the group, especially the <30 gamers, just keep at they'll know exactly when to move the ball forward. Once this clicks I think we'll be the most damaging team in the comp as once the ball is out of defense or we gain possession in the middle, we'll be racking up inside 50s nine times out of ten.

[tiga]

Just on the topic of stats, did anyone catch Insider on Fox las night? Kingy did some pretty good break downs. He showed us as the top team to score on a turn over in the area between the centre boundaries and the corridor. But he also showed we were the top team for conceding scores from turning it over in the centre corridor. I found this interesting because an observation I made on the weekend and I assume would be bleeding obvious to everyone else too, is that we are still over using the footy. Our game style is keepers off and through the guts. Whether running it or playing hot potato and passing it around. There becomes a point and it's more apparent when watching the replay when the moment of over use becomes apparent. You see us zigging and zagging, chipping and handballing, then a bunch of really offensive options when attacking mids free up or the defenders stream through. The window is short and we are still missing it far too often by one extra handball or a cute kick. Last year this was killing us but this year it's finally clear what the plan is. I believe it's just an experience thing. Once the group, especially the <30 gamers, just keep at they'll know exactly when to move the ball forward. Once this clicks I think we'll be the most damaging team in the comp as once the ball is out of defense or we gain possession in the middle, we'll be racking up inside 50s nine times out of ten.

dwaino, Our first goal was coast to coast in 13 seconds!! Won't see that too often from any team. I know what you mean, but rather than overuse, I call it an attempt to deconstruct the zone which the Hawks like to employ so often. Once you can suck one or two players out of their zone structure, the walls come tumbling down domino style as others try to cover the gaps.

[dwaino]

The thing with that goal from Griffith's big bomb kick in is, even if Hawthorn were expecting it they most likely still would of left Nahas and Martin unchecked over the back. Take those two and Griffiths, it makes 18 on 15. They would have backed themselves in, but none of them tried whacking the ball forwards and instead let us take a clean mark and break. I completely understand what you are saying though, I think it's just another perspective of what my babble tried to get across lol. Just when those gaps in the zone appear, we aren't busting through them straight away every time and we put ourselves under pressure by an extra handball, or something.

[one-eyed]

Another stat (from SEN tonight) to show our improvement even over the course of the season so far ...

Rounds 1-5: we conceded on average 10 points per game from centre clearances (18th in AFL)

Rounds 6-9: we are ahead on average by 8 points per game from centre clearances (2nd in AFL)

Obviously big Ivan and the mids have become more familiar playing together now  .