Cotch into $7 now...
Brownlow shapes as battle of midfielders Jon Anderson
From: Herald Sun
August 18, 2012
A BUMPER Brownlow year involving 10 of the game's elite midfielders may be decided by a simple footballing adage - who goes in most to win the ball.
Ablett
That's the view of former umpire Darren Goldspink, who voted 371 times in a whistle-blowing career spanning from 1989-2007.
Goldspink believes the ingredients for Brownlow success have been tried and tested since the award's inception in 1924.
"Everyone knows midfielders stick out because they are around the ball. As an umpire you are always most aware of players who go in and get the football," Goldpsink said this week.
"You are more aware of that type of player than someone who receives it. I wouldn't have thought running with the ball constituted three votes."
Contrary to public belief, umpires don't study statistics after a game according to Goldspink: "We wouldn't read the stats. You wouldn't know if someone had 30 or 40 possessions.
"The only time you might see a player's statistics was if you happened to be glancing at the screen during breaks when they were flashed on.
"When you vote you remember a player's skill, how they use the ball, how they win their possessions. For instance is a player who runs around the back for the easy handball for 30 possessions the equal of a guy who gets 25 from in and around the pack?
"When I watch the football today I see the same players, Ablett, Swan, Pendlebury, Mitchell, Selwood, Priddis, Thompson and Dangerfield. You want to see them use the ball well."
Goldspink believes giving votes today would be the hardest it has ever been given the number of people around the ball and umpires having to worry about getting free kicks correct let alone Brownlow votes.
CONTESTED POSSESSIONS & CLEARANCESTHIS is where Sydney's Josh Kennedy excells, being ranked No.1 one for clearances and two for contested possessions.
Because he has never figured on the Brownlow radar it's hard to know if Kennedy will poll. At least you will find out early given most media outlets had him best afield in Sydney's first three games this year.
Patrick Dangerfield is another unknown who ticks every other box. Ranked one for contested possessions and four in clearances, you can also add his breathtaking goal-kicking and rare acceleration. It's hard to fathom why he won't poll.
Of the established crew Watson, Thompson, Selwood and Ablett are all ranked in the top for both categories, with Mitchell, Cotchin and Swan just outside. Beams, despite his weight of possession, doesn't figure as prominently.
Three players who do are Shane Tuck, Matt Priddis and Andrew Swallow, and while none are expected to challenge for the medal all would be worth looking at as best pollers for their respective teams.
VOTING HISTORYEVEN though he has only won one, which many would consider at least one less than he should have, Gary Ablett has averaged a remarkable 24 votes per season over the past five years (23 last year followed by 26, 30, 22 and 20).
Last year's winner Dane Swan is only slightly less prolific, totalling 102 votes in the same period (34, 34, 12, 12, 20).
Sam Mitchell has been an eye catcher throughout his career, winning two best and fairests in the U18s with Eastern Ranges and three at Hawthorn, plus the Liston trophy for best player in the VFL in 2002. And he polls with 94 votes over the past five seasons (30, 15, 13, 15, 21).
Joel Selwood is another regular vote-getter (17, 21, 16, 19) while Scott Thompson (12, 15, 11, 15, 18) is consistent rather than dominant. Of the others Jobe Watson polled 15 and 16 in 2010-11 and Trent Cotchin entered calculations after polling 15 votes last year.
Patrick Dangerfield, seven votes last year, Josh Kennedy (three in his career) and Dayne Beams (eight in total) have never figured on leader boards.
BETTINGMy advice would be to ignore the regular "pushes" that come from betting agencies because they are rarely, if ever, right.
You just to need to look at the history of recent red-hot favourites to discover a trail of financial disaster if you jumped aboard favourites in recent years.
In 2007-08 Ablett was around the odds-on mark at this stage of the season but lost both years, finishing fifth and second. In 2009 Dane Swan was a $1.90 chance before finishing third.
And last year Chris Judd dominated betting markets for the entire season but was never going to win, ending up fifth behind Swan. So go for the value, such as Swan last year ($10) or Judd ($20) in 2009.
There is always value, such as the Sportingbet Australia punter who had $50 on Dangerfield at $151 or another who shrewdly parted with $5 on Beams at $1001.
If you want some this year you could do worse than having something on Selwood each-way at $21 with Sportingbet Australia.
CHAMPION DATA'S TOP 10 Name Games Votes
Jobe Watson (Ess) 19 30
Gary Ablett (GC) 17 28
Scott Thompson (Adel) 19 23
Sam Mitchell (Haw) 19 22
Kieren Jack (Syd) 19 21
Scott Pendlebury (Coll) 15 20
Dayne Beams (Coll) 18 20
Dane Swan (Coll) 16 18
Joel Selwood (Geel) 18 18
Matthew Pavlich (Frem) 19 18
WHO IS LEADING THE MEDIA AWARDSHERALD SUNGary Ablett (GC), 49
Jobe Watson (Ess), 47
Trent Cotchin (Rich), 42Scott Thompson (Adel), 40
Dane Swan (Coll), 40
THE AGEJobe Watson (Ess), 120
Trent Cotchin (Rich), 118Gary Ablett (GC), 94
Patrick Dangerfield (Adel), 93
Scott Pendlebury (Coll), 85
AFL COACHES' ASSOCIATIONTrent Cotchin (Rich), 93Jobe Watson (Ess), 88
Dayne Beams (Coll), 83
Gary Ablett (GC), 78
Matthew Boyd (WB), 74
Patrick Dangerfield (Adel), 74
Scott Thompson (Adel), 74
3AWDayne Beams (Coll), 29
Jobe Watson (Ess), 26
Sam Mitchell (Haw), 23
Gary Ablett (GC), 22
Patrick Dangerfield (Adel), 20
THE ODDS$3 Jobe Watson (Ess)
$5 Gary Ablett (GC)
$7 Trent Cotchin (Rich)$10 Scott Thompson (Adel)
$11 Patrick Dangerfield (Adel)
Sam Mitchell (Haw)
$13 Dane Swan (Coll)
$15 Joel Selwood (Geel)
Scott Pendlebury (Coll)
Dayne Beams (Coll)
$17 Josh Kennedy (Syd)
$34 Brett Deledio (Rich)Lenny Hayes (StK)
Kieren Jack (Syd)
$81 Dean Cox (WCE)
$101 Daniel Kerr (WCE)
Matt Priddis (WCE)
Daniel Wells (NM)
www.heraldsun.com.au/afl/brownlow-shapes-as-battle-of-midfielders/story-e6frf9io-1226452885640
