Richmond needs to beat a contender in next three weeks to prove it's the real deal By Glenn McFarlane
Herald Sun
July 18, 2013 1:00PMDear Richmond,
We know it's so close you can almost taste it, but the next three weeks will tell us just how far you’ve come as a football team.
Currently, you're in sixth place - three games clear in the top eight - and with the tantalising prospect of only your third finals series in more than a generation becoming more real by the day.
Your fans deserve it. They have been loyal in the face of adversity and under-achievement for as long as some of them can remember.
But they don't just want to play finals - as seems almost a certainty now - they want to take part in a meaningful way. And not just to be there for the sake of making up the numbers.
To prove you can do that, it’s time for the Tigers to start beating the teams that matter. And what better opportunity than over the next three weeks.
So far this season, you have beaten ONE team currently inside the top eight - Port Adelaide in Round 7.
Admittedly, you should have beaten the Dockers over in Perth in Round 5, and you are yet to play the Swans or the Hawks.
All of that will change over the next three weeks, with crucial clashes coming against Fremantle at the MCG on Sunday, followed by Sydney at the SCG and then Hawthorn at the MCG.
You could lose all three and still potentially make the finals.
But if you do that, it’s doubtful you are going to make much of an impression on September.
You must make a serious statement over the next three weeks against three legitimate premiership contenders.
Relish the opportunity, and beat them. Don’t shrink from it.
Performing well against these three teams – and beating them – could deliver another huge benefit in the form of a home final.
There has been a big divide between his team’s performances against sides it should beat – and does – and the sides it could beat – but doesn’t.
The divide is sometimes a chasm.
Just try a few of these Champion Data differential stats on for size.
Against the bottom 10 sides this year, your disposal differential is +23; your contested possession differential is +5; your inside 50m differential is +11, your average score for is 102 and average against is 73. They are solid numbers.
On the flip side, against current top eight sides this year, your disposal differential is -7; your contested possession differential is +1; your inside 50m differential is -9, your average score is 85 and your average score against is 98. It's an alarming drop-off.
Full-forward Jack Riewoldt has kicked 43 goals this season - 29 of them coming against bottom-eight teams. Take out a bag of five against Port Adelaide and he has nine goals in four matches against teams in the top seven.
Brett Deledio has similar numbers. Against teams outside the eight he averages 112 SuperCoach points a game. Against teams in the bottom eight it's 96 - take out a monster game against Port and that number drops to 80.
On Sunday Deledio faces his nemesis Ryan Crowley, who has held him to 17, six and 14 disposals in their past three encounters.
There has never been a better time to take a stand, Lids.
What has also been a concern is the team's dip in form over the past fortnight. It needs to be turned around - quickly.
In the first 14 rounds, your average disposal differential was +19. In the past two weeks against North Melbourne and Gold Coast it was -43.
Clearly, you need to get a lot more of the ball. And your scoring capabilities have dropped off as well and must lift.
Your first 14 weeks resulted in an average points score of 102. The last two weeks have yielded only 81 - mainly because of the Kangaroos' flogging but also the Cairns weather didn't help last week.
But forget the excuses, you are a side that should be beating quality opponents. That needs to start this week.
Take down the Dockers on Sunday – who look a little vulnerable without Matthew Pavlich and Hayden Ballantyne – and the respect notch will be cranked up a fair bit.
It would also give you your first ever win over a Ross Lyon-coached side.
In three weeks, you could have not only locked in a finals berth, but put some doubts in the minds of rival clubs.
Yours Sincerely,
Glenn McFarlane
http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-premiership/richmond-needs-to-beat-a-contender-in-next-three-weeks-to-prove-its-the-real-deal/story-e6frf3e3-1226681320693
