Late picks more important than first rounders in long-term success (Age)

[one-eyed]

Late picks more important than first rounders in long-term success, says draft data
  Liam Mannix
     The Age
    November 30, 2014

All the focus of this year's draft is already on clubs' first-round picks – but a new analysis reveals players taken in the second and third round are actually far more important to a club's success.

A data analysis of all clubs' picks between 1994 and 2008 compared to a team's win-loss record between 2000 and 2009 shows the more games players picked in the second and third round play, the more likely a team is to have a better win-loss record. There is a negative correlation between the number of games played by first-round players and a team's winning percentage – that is, the more games a first-round pick plays the worse-off the club is likely to be.

The reason for the importance of late picks on a team's win-loss is complex. One theory is this: getting a good first rounder doesn't make a team any better than average. In the 2008 draft, for example, four out of the first five picks (Nic Naitanui, Stephen Hill, Hamish Hartlett and Michael Hurley) could be considered to have been successes.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/late-picks-more-important-than-first-rounders-in-longterm-success-says-draft-data-20141129-11v9ea.html

[Phil Mrakov]

Hurley is a success ? What are they smoking. He is poo

[Penelope]

my guess is that ever they are smoking is only half the strength of whatever you are smoking

[Chuck17]

my guess is that ever they are smoking is only half the strength of whatever you are smoking

However that is still some mighty potent poo then

[Go Richo 12]

A few people on this site must gather and smoke it together, too.

[Diocletian]

A few people on this site must gather and smoke it together, too.

Says the bloke with the Bob Dylan avatar....

[the claw]

Ive said this before and at the risk of copping more ridicule i tend to look at what a club needs every yr this way.

We have 38 players on the list proper round it up to 40.

If the ave length of time for players on a list is 10 yrs. The need is to find 4 decent players every yr just to tread water.

We need to target kids or the better kids in the first 3 rounds of the nd as a regular process.   Not every other yr or when we get short of  juniors on the list. These are to be looked upon as our good long term prospects.
We then look to immediate list shortages later in the nd, rookie draft, and trade  f/a period. As far as trades go we can target quality long term juniors here as well.

I have long complained that we ever seem to have consistent processes that we go thru.

[Go Richo 12]

A few people on this site must gather and smoke it together, too.

Says the bloke with the Bob Dylan avatar....

Amphetamines was Bob's drug of choice.