The truth index: Richmond, West Coast, Western Bulldogs and Collingwood moving towards premiership sweet spot but Essendon and Carlton on the slideJay Clark
Herald-Sun
August 09, 2015 LET’S call it the truth index.
It is the sugary hit that, for West Coast and Richmond, highlights their move into the premiership sweet spot and fuels even greater excitement at the Western Bulldogs.
But for traditional power clubs Carlton and Essendon, the sobering reality is unavoidable.
Full-on rebuild time has arrived.
But using West Coast and the Dogs’ blueprint as a guide, the turnaround could only be three national drafts away if they sink right to the bottom and nail their top picks.
Based on average games per player per game this season, this is the table that should correlate with the clubs’ ladder positions.
While coaches often talk about youth and development and the future, this Champion Data experience profile cuts to the core, and, for Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Sydney and Fremantle, their time is now.
The last three premiership teams have averaged between 109 and 114 games per player per match and those four clubs all sit above the line on the experience tally.
But the sliding scale below last year’s four preliminary finalists is where the focus shifts from the present to the future.
And for Collingwood, it proves in black and white that Nathan Buckley’s men are even greener than Melbourne and St Kilda this year, yet still managed to push top weights Hawthorn, Fremantle and Port Adelaide mid season.
Richmond and West Coast are on the brink of the 100-game bubble, underlining the changing of the premiership guard that may lie ahead over the next three seasons.
The Eagles tested their credentials on Saturday night in Perth against back-to-back premier Hawthorn, building solidly towards their fourth premiership in 24 years.
Remarkably, the Eagles have only one 30-year-old in their side — Matt Priddis — and a batch of young stars under the age of 24, led by Luke Shuey, Nic Naitanui, Jack Darling, Jeremy McGovern and Elliot Yeo.
What has happened at the kennel is the story of the home-and-away season, as they prepare to cement a finals spot with a list that is about half as experienced as Hawthorn’s and even younger than another September challenger — Greater Western Sydney.
Luke Beveridge is the genius first-year coach, but the recruiting boffins in the bowels of Whitten Oval deserve a Christmas bonus, too.
After finishing fourth in 2010, the Dogs have struck gold with early picks at three national drafts with father-son gems Tom Liberatore and Mitch Wallis that year, Jake Stringer (No. 5) and Jack Macrae (No. 6) in 2012 and Marcus Bontempelli (No. 4) in 2013.
Add some rookie gems in Luke Dahlhaus and Tory Dickson in 2011 and the Dogs have shown the Blues and Bombers how quickly clubs can rise off the sea floor.
The Eagles were successful with rookie pick Priddis and forgotten man Eric Mackenzie (No. 29) in 2006, Naitanui (No. 2) and Shuey (No. 18) in 2008, Andrew Gaff (No. 4) and Jack Darling (No. 26) in 2010.
Geelong is set to recalibrate differently, hoping a clutch of retirements, combined with an injection of ready-made senior players in Patrick Dangerfield, Lachie Henderson and Scott Selwood can circumvent a drop down the ladder.
Although the Blues and Bombers are spiralling their way down, it doesn’t have to be forever.
YOUR CLUB’S AVERAGE GAMES EXPERIENCE THIS YEARHawthorn 131
North Melbourne 127.7
Fremantle 124.3
Sydney 122.4
Geelong 109.4
Port Adelaide 100.6
Essendon 98.5
Richmond 93.7
West Coast 91.5
Carlton 86.5
Adelaide 84.1
Melbourne 81.9
St Kilda 81.4
Collingwood 81.2
GWS Giants 70
Western Bulldogs 68.4
Brisbane Lions 67.5
Gold Coast 59.8
NOTE: Figures to the end of Round 18.
Source: CHAMPION DATAhttp://www.news.com.au/national/the-truth-index-richmond-west-coast-western-bulldogs-and-collingwood-moving-towards-premiership-sweet-spot-but-essendon-and-carlton-on-the-slide/story-e6frfkp9-1227475599575
