Richmond, Western Bulldogs and North Melbourne can go all the way, David King saysHerald-Sun
August 28, 2015IT WOULD defy logic to talk up the premiership legitimacy of any team that finishes the home-and-away season outside the top four.
The current finals system has been in place since 2000 and not once has the 5th-8th placed teams made a Grand Final, let alone won one.
This year the Western Bulldogs, Richmond and North Melbourne appear the best-equipped and while we await the final order we accept they all possess assets that can make an impact. They also have warts that September can expose.
Are their warts substantial enough to render their campaigns short-term only? I’m not convinced.
The ladder at the pointy end appears to misrepresent each team’s premiership rankings despite the fact we’re 22 weeks deep.
Do the top of the table Fremantle Dockers score enough? The simple answer is no. If Fremantle is to be successful this season, as always, it will be because of Ross Lyon’s defensively geared plan.
The main issue for Fremantle is they’ve lost their turnover game.
Turnover scoring differential is the No. 1 success indicator and given that approximately 60 per cent of total scoring is from turnover, Fremantle would be alarmed by their ranking of 14th over the past seven weeks.
The premiership team has been ranked either No. 1 or No. 2 on this score for the past eight years.
Can Hawthorn, who is the best team, win in Perth to get back the big dance — a waltz they’ve owned in recent times?
The Hawks have won the most recent encounter with the Eagles, but they’ve only won three of their past eight at Domain Stadium.
The Hawks still have the best record against top eight teams this year, winning six of eight and are five from five on the road.
Have West Coast had too many injury setbacks? Only Adelaide, Melbourne, Hawthorn and the Kangaroos have used fewer players over the past seven weeks.
The Swans are on the nose for all tipsters, despite looking likely to qualify for the double chance for the fourth year in succession.
Sydney aren’t scoring enough over the past seven weeks — only outscoring Fremantle by an average of two points a game in that period.
Those residing 5th-8th simply haven’t been as complete across the past 22 weeks, but the cutthroat nature of finals football brings us back to the “Any Given Sunday” notion.
September football is all about performing on the big stage. The rise or otherwise of individual talent, the unity of the team, tactics and basic skill execution under pressure are all vital.
The challenge for the “next bests” is to minimise their warts and maximise their weapons.
Statistically over the last seven weeks, the next-best numbers are trending upwards and are superior to those currently residing in the top four.
Why couldn’t the Tigers win it? Richmond has the best defensive return, allowing only 64 points a game despite losing twice in that period.
It appears Damien Hardwick has freed them up because they’ve kicked 45 goals in the past fortnight alone. While the depth of talent remains a concern they have a settled and have virtually their best 22 available.
Adelaide exhibits the best attack, averaging 112 points through their forward-half dominance and press. They are healthy and look to have found their way through an emotionally draining mid-year period.
The Crows are also best at creating opposition turnovers in their forward half over the past seven weeks. A major success indicator.
North Melbourne is unbeaten for two months. Enough said.
North has had its lapses over the past three weeks, but they’re full-strength and have an ever-improving defensive rating — conceding 71 points a game since Round 15.
If Robbie Tarrant and Shaun Atley contribute like they did against Fremantle last weekend then the jigsaw appears to be coming together. It will be a Todd Goldstein-led assault on the flag.
The Western Bulldogs are the story of 2015. If coach Luke Beveridge can finish this fairytale it’ll be lauded as the best first year of coaching in the game’s history.
The Dogs have the fourth-best attack in the comp and the fifth-best defence over the past seven weeks.
Jake Stringer continues his outrageous form and if they can just find a ruckman who wants to compete then who knows?
While West Coast and the Hawks are best-placed from a statistical point of view the challengers are coming.
For the first time in a long time we need to look further down the ladder. Beware the next-bests.
http://www.news.com.au/national/richmond-western-bulldogs-and-north-melbourne-can-go-all-the-way-david-king-says/story-e6frfkp9-1227501752844
