Can close losses be avoided?AFL.com.au
5 April 2016RICHMOND has now lost two of its past 10 games after conceding a goal with less than a minute remaining.
That has forced the club to once again look for answers so mistakes aren't repeated.
After Friday night's shock fadeout against Collingwood, the players spoke about the result being a collective failure, acknowledging they had not managed the last five minutes well.
Managing their emotions in such moments is a work in progress for the Tigers' leaders, who met on Monday and took responsibility for the outcome.
Since Damien Hardwick took over as coach, the Tigers have played in 13 games decided by a goal or less and won just four (with a three-game losing stretch by four points or less in 2012 creating a stark picture).
That must hurt the dual premiership player, who was on the winning side in 18 of 25 games decided by a goal or less across his 207-game career. Skipper Trent Cotchin is 10-10 in such games.
Losing close games is obviously costly but it only becomes a major worry if the Tigers let it become one.
Because despite their poor recent history, the Tigers can't ever expect perfect outcomes when the game is tight.
The line between winning and losing is too fine for that, and relies not just on the decisions of the players but the bounce of an oval ball.
Richmond has a bad recent record but every club bar Greater Western Sydney and Gold Coast has lost a match inside the final three minutes (excluding time on) of game time since 2010.
Since 2013, Hawthorn, Geelong, North Melbourne, Essendon, Carlton, Collingwood, the Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, Melbourne and West Coast have all lost games in the dying minutes.
In all such games you can point to individual villains – Bachar Houli, Cameron Wood, Max Gawn and Jimmy Toumpas, Jimmy Bartel and Dawson Simpson – and heroes – Brodie Grundy, David Mundy, Joel Selwood, Cale Hooker, Leigh Montagna, Devon Smith and Christian Salem – but those are names that sit under a spotlight when the chain of events that led to the final frantic chaotic minutes might be harder to unpack.
Others will say the champions make the best decisions under pressure.
Maybe that's the case, but it's hard to quantify such statements.
In dramatic finishes since 2013, Garrick Ibbotson, Jordie McKenzie, Darcy Moore, Cam Guthrie and Jack Steven did good things when their teams won and, with respect, none of them are (at least yet) considered champions.
In 2013, North Melbourne lost five games by a goal or less but in the past two seasons has learned to control games to the point where it has only twice been involved in games decided by a goal or less.
If you let your team get into a position where chance plays a bigger part than many want to admit, then the results will generally swing on the pendulum that says 'you win some, you lose some'.
For example, Hawthorn has a 47 per cent winning record in games decided by a goal or loss since 2010, Geelong (56 per cent) and the Brisbane Lions (64 per cent).
The numbers hardly indicate one team has got the ability to get things right every time they find themselves in a tight situation.
It's why on AFL360 on Monday night Geelong coach Chris Scott wisely noted: "From a coaching perspective, if you think you can control those situations you will go mad."
As much as they collectively failed in the final moments of Friday night's game, the Tigers will gain more if they can improve their ability to put the opposition away in the second quarter when they dominated inside 50s but failed to convert.
That's where any coach – mad or not – feels as though he can step in and make a difference.
"The reality is he [Hardwick] didn't have total control over the situation but he needs to assert himself this week and make sure those mistakes don't happen again," Scott said.
Sadly as Scott probably knows and every Richmond supporter understands implicitly, those mistakes probably will.
But fate (and the opposition) will play some part in determining how costly they become.
Number of times a team has lost the lead in the final three minutes since 2010*
5 Richmond 
4 North Melbourne
3 West Coast, Carlton, Sydney Swans, Essendon
2 Hawthorn, Adelaide, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, Geelong
1 Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, Brisbane Lions, Fremantle
*Also 11 draws with a score in the final three minutes.http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-04-05/can-close-losses-be-avoided
