Richmond 'overperformed' in 2019 (foxsports)

[one-eyed]

Moneyball theory reveals which AFL teams will rise and fall in 2020

February 25, 2020
Max Laughton
FOX SPORTS

TEAMS THAT OVERPERFORMED IN 2019 (Should fall in 2020)

Richmond

Points for/against in 2019: 1892/1664 (percentage of 113.7)

Actual wins: 16

Pythagorean wins: 13.6

This is one of those cases where the stat doesn’t quite pass the eye test. But let’s look at what Pythagoras is saying here.

The Tigers were clearly the best team in the AFL by the end of September, and deservedly demolished GWS in the Grand Final. From the bye, where Richmond sat 7-6 with a percentage of 92, Damien Hardwick’s side won 12 consecutive matches.

In the first half of the year the Tigers were ravaged by injury, so in a sense those are two different teams we’re analysing; the pre-bye Tigers who clawed their way to a winning record, and the post-bye Tigers who roared towards another flag. The pre-bye performance drags down the percentage of the post-bye team.

But let’s look at it the other way. Is Richmond going to go undefeated in 2020? Almost certainly not. The Tigers were famously the beneficiaries of a kind run home that saw them play their last seven games of the home and away season at the MCG. Who’s to say they wouldn’t have lost to West Coast in Round 22 if that game was played in Perth, rather than Melbourne (where they won by six points)?

To put it more simply: the Tigers probably aren’t as good as a 12-0 run to end the season says they were.

We’re putting an asterisk on this. When putting together our predicted ladder, we’re not going to tip Richmond to fall out of the top four, but let’s maybe use this and say they won’t completely run away with the competition.

Full article here: https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/moneyball-theory-reveals-which-afl-teams-will-rise-and-fall-in-2020/news-story/cab387292378f5181f62e14e23b8b177

[tdy]

The draw makes a heck of a difference.

[mightytiges]

Who’s to say they wouldn’t have lost to West Coast in Round 22 if that game was played in Perth, rather than Melbourne (where they won by six points)?

Would've, should've, could've ....

We might have won by more  . The Eagles were very accurate in front of goal (14.4), we had 6 more scoring shots that day (14.10), and the Eagles lost to Hawthorn in Perth the following week.

To put it more simply: the Tigers probably aren’t as good as a 12-0 run to end the season says they were.

We beat all the other top 6 sides in the second half the year. We also beat GWS twice and Brisbane both home and at the 'G (in a final). We proved ourselves to be better than the rest. You don't win the flag if you aren't good enough.

We might not win all post-games H/A matches this year but barring another shocking run with injuries we could more than likely win more games in the first half of the season. Swings and roundabouts.

[Andyy]

We lost to WCE in 2018 at their home ground.

They lost to us in 2019 at our home ground.

It is what it is...

[Darth Tiger]

I really enjoy all of this retrospective analysis and hand-wringing.

More fodder for the masses to keep the plebs engaged during the off-season with the woulda, coulda, shoulda.

Where were these peanuts when it really mattered with the insight ?

Still keeping the  dream alive for the Karmawood, Bummers, Blues units that are so very far off a genuine premiership tilt.

That used to be me once, searching the draft, clinging to the trade news, riding the pre-season. Those days are done with the RFC managed by excellent people, driving a wonderful culture and gathering awesome outcomes.

[Hard Roar Tiger]

I think it’s obvious to write this stuff as it deflects our dominance at the back end of the season which.l builds hope for a half a dozen teams.

For me, it’s scary to think we missed Jack, Cotch, Nank, Shorty for half a season and when they all came back, we won our last 12 games by an average of 7 goals.

[Gracie]

I think it’s obvious to write this stuff as it deflects our dominance at the back end of the season which.l builds hope for a half a dozen teams.

For me, it’s scary to think we missed Jack, Cotch, Nank, Shorty for half a season and when they all came back, we won our last 12 games by an average of 7 goals.

and we were held together by an unfit Lynch in that first half

We would not have been able to get the top 4 position without his efforts pre bye