Dynasty or draft? Tigers' huge call after 'big-boy month' failureCal Twomey looks at where it's gone wrong for the reigning premiers, and the big decision they face at season's end
By Callum Twomey
afl.com.au
12 July 2021DAMIEN Hardwick once labelled July "big-boy month", the period of a season that is crucial to a side's premiership hopes.
For the past four years, July has been a breeding ground of belief for the Tigers, who have claimed 15 wins from 18 games in the block that Hardwick says can separate the contenders from the pretenders.
This year, July looms as the toppling of the empire for Richmond, with back-to-back defeats to Gold Coast and Collingwood kicking off the month and bumping the Tigers to 12th spot on the ladder with six rounds to go.
But the decline was in train before July. In fact, it can be traced back to the 16-minute mark of the final term against West Coast in round 13, when the Eagles slammed on the last four goals of the game to claim a comeback four-point victory over the two-time reigning premiers.
Two weeks later, after a bye and their return to Melbourne, the Tigers capitulated to their lowest score in 60 years and their lowest at the MCG since 1927 when they booted 2.10 (22) against St Kilda before dismal defeats to the Suns and then Magpies.
Now, one of the best sides of the century is fighting for a place in the top eight and its hopes of an historic club-first three-peat of premierships appear over.
WHERE IT'S GONE WRONGAt first it was 'un-Richmondlike'. But the fingerprints of the defeat to the Saints have been stuck all over the past two weeks for the Tigers, who have plummeted in all the key areas that made them so strong last season.
Since round 13, Richmond's stocks have nosedived and their comparable numbers to last season show where the drop off has come.
In that block of games, they rank 18th for contested disposal differential (they were 14th last season), 16th in inside-50 differential (second in 2020), 10th in tackle differential (second in 2020), 16th in time in forward half differential (first in 2020) and 17th in their kick inside-50 retention rate (fifth in 2020).
But it doesn't stop there. The Tigers' famed manic effort has dissipated. They ranked second in the AFL last year for forward-half intercepts but are 16th since round 13, their pressure ranks second worst in the League in that period and their goals per inside 50 conceded sees them placed 15th (they were fourth in this key statistic last year).
Injuries have been a significant part of the story, with Hardwick's side decimated by body blows across the season. The revolving door of injured players has left a Richmond line-up where rivals don't have to dig for the chink in their armour any more - it is there in front of them.
Tom Lynch, Nick Vlastuin, Dion Prestia, Kane Lambert, David Astbury and Trent Cotchin have all missed chunks of the year with various concerns, ruckman Toby Nankervis remains out with his knee injury, defenders Noah Balta and Nathan Broad are out with their respective ankle injuries and Ivan Soldo hasn't played at all as he recovers from last year's knee reconstruction.
Richmond's Noah Balta lays injured on the ground after hurting his ankle in R15 against St Kilda. Picture: AFL Photos
But Champion Data also shows that for those who have played, only three Tigers have improved this season on last by at least 1.0 player ratings points: Prestia by 3.1 after being injured for most of 2020, Nathan Broad (by 3) and champion Tiger Dustin Martin, who has improved by 1.4 points despite spending more time in attack than the midfield.
Hardwick was forced to defend Cotchin's form after the Tigers' fourth-quarter fadeout against Collingwood on Sunday, when the triple premiership captain picked up 13 disposals and one clearance. But player ratings suggest that Cotchin is 10th at Richmond for drop-offs from last year's flag form to 2021.
RICHMOND'S AFL PLAYER RATINGS DROP-OFF 2020 avg 2020 normalised* 2021 AVG Diff
D.Rioli 7.0 8.8 5.5 -3.3
J.Ross 5.6 7.0 3.8 -3.2
D.Astbury 7.2 9.0 6.1 -2.9
N.Vlastuin 10.0 12.5 9.7 -2.8
K.Lambert 9.4 11.8 9.0 -2.8
S.Edwards 13.3 16.6 13.9 -2.7
T.Lynch 7.0 8.8 7.1 -1.7
J.Caddy 6.0 7.5 6.0 -1.5
J.Short 8.1 10.1 8.8 -1.3
T.Cotchin 8.9 11.1 10.0 -1.1
*2020 numbers multiplied by 1.25 to balance the 25% shorter quarters.THE TIGER CUBSRichmond has used 37 players this season, ranking it equal fifth for most players used in the competition (the second-placed Western Bulldogs lead the AFL with 41). Hardwick and the Tigers have been bullish on their kids for some time, with three flags in four years (and another preliminary final berth) meaning their development was largely done at VFL level.
This year, more responsibility has been thrust their way. Against the Magpies, they had nine players – Patrick Naish, Sydney Stack, Ryan Garthwaite, Rhyan Mansell, Riley Collier-Dawkins, Jack Ross, Thomson Dow, Mabior Chol and Jake Aarts – who had played fewer than 30 games at the top level.
Collier-Dawkins had to wait until this year to debut but the 2018 first-round pick has shown some impressive signs in the midfield, Ross has been in and out of the starting 22 but also has strength at the contest, while Mansell has impressed since being a pre-season signing.
The Tigers have also blooded Will Martyn, who they have high hopes for as a dogged ball-getter, while Callum Coleman-Jones kicked four goals in his first game and eight goals across his first three upon returning to the senior side and there are high hopes for him as a long-term key forward.
Hugo Ralphsmith, a running half-back/wingman, has shown glimpses of his talent while the Tigers also handed a debut to ruckman Samson Ryan in a sign of their belief in their young core. Ben Miller was mooted for a debut but has not yet played, however the tall defender is also highly regarded within Punt Road.
Richmond hasn't lost four games in a row since rounds 6-9 in 2017, but the injuries forced upon them have opened up chances for the Tiger cubs to taste the top level.
A HUGE DYNASTY DECISIONThe Tigers' list management and recruiting team has done a magnificent job in keeping its premiership group together – Dan Butler and Brandon Ellis are the only premiership players to have departed the club since 2017 for bigger deals or more opportunities – while also adding the likes of Lynch to a star-studded line-up.
But the club now faces a crunch call: go all-in for another flag in 2022 or start to think about a list regeneration? The Tigers are well placed whichever way they go, and with a healthy run at things would likely be in the mix again in 2022, but do have plenty to think about.
Firstly, a number of flag heroes and free agents remain unsigned beyond this year, including veteran half-back Houli, reliable wingman Kamdyn McIntosh and important defender Astbury. They have re-signed Shane Edwards and upcoming 300-gamer Jack Riewoldt to one-year extensions.
They also have to ward off interest in Chol, an unrestricted free agent who has suitors and more consistent opportunities available elsewhere, as well as Coleman-Jones, who has been monitored by many clubs, including Gold Coast, but is out of contract.
Shai Bolton, Richmond's highest re-signing priority, has vowed to wait until the end of the season before making a decision on his future, although rivals believe it is unlikely he switches clubs while on the verge of superstardom.
The Tigers have been linked to being in the market for out-of-contract Dockers midfielder Adam Cerra, however there are doubts on that eventuating even if Cerra departs Fremantle for a Victorian club.
With four picks inside the top 30 (No.7, 16, 26 and 29 on current ladder position), the Tigers are in a strong position to back in their heralded recruiting and bolster their list with an exciting draft haul. Or, it could provide them trade capital to throw at rivals to land readymade players if they want to extend the 'Martin moment' and strike for another flag while their three-time Norm Smith medallist is 30 and in his prime.
The dynasty clubs of this century have all looked to a mix of trade and draft to stretch out their dominance and history provides some lessons within those decisions.
Hawthorn grabbed Jaeger O'Meara at the end of 2016, a year after their 2013-15 triple flag triumph, while Geelong picked up top-10 selection Josh Caddy in 2012, a year on from its 2011 premiership. Although further down the line, the Lions' trade haul in 2009 that saw them grab Brendan Fevola from Carlton was designed to spin Brisbane back into contention five years after their fourth consecutive Grand Final appearance.
Richmond, now staring down the possibility of tipping out of the finals this season, faces its own big call that could shape its next years under Hardwick.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/646972/dynasty-or-draft-tigers-huge-call-after-big-boy-month-failure
