Fall or rise again: Will the Tiger dynasty go the way of Cats, Lions or Hawks?It's the end of an era for Richmond, but there are already green shoots emerging
By Mitch Cleary
afl.com.au
21 August 2021THREE teams have been forced to respond after ending dynasties this century and all have come with varying levels of results.
And unless a miracle occurs this weekend, Richmond will become the fourth as the curtain closes on its incredible three-flag window by missing finals.
As AFL legend Leigh Matthews told 3AW last week, once a dynasty is broken you can't re-join a dynasty. It must be started again.
Where the Tigers turn to next and how quickly they bounce back are the club's biggest questions as they prepare for their longest off-season since 2016.
Damien Hardwick's men are armed with two first-round picks and a further two early in the second round this year and have some genuine emerging stars under the age of 24. Plus, Dustin Martin, Dylan Grimes, Dion Prestia and Tom Lynch are all over 28 and have plenty left in the tank.
It paints a promising picture for a quick recovery. But how does the Tigers' situation compare to the other champion sides since 2000?
Hawthorn's three-peat in 2015 was followed by a straight sets finals exit in 2016 and a 12th placed finish in 2017.
Geelong was able to jump into a preliminary final in 2013 after they were sent packing in an elimination final in 2012 and have secured five top-four finishes in the last six years.
And Brisbane's dynasty officially closed in 2005 after missing finals (and the following three seasons) after trying to go again after their 2004 Grand Final defeat.
From the Cats' list at the end of 2012, they were able to get a further 568 games out of those aged 28 or older at that very point in time. Corey Enright, Jimmy Bartel, Tom Lonergan, James Kelly and Andrew Mackie were key factors in the Cats' rebound.
The Hawks' 2016 list will finish with 302 matches from the same age bracket (almost one-third from Shaun Burgoyne) and Brisbane of 2005 could conjure just 129 as Justin Leppitsch, Michael Voss, Brad and Chris Scott, Nigel Lappin and Jason Akermanis closed in on retirement or departed elsewhere.
In the Tigers' same age range, Martin, Grimes, Prestia and Lynch are all contracted until at least 2023. Kane Lambert and Nathan Broad have shown no signs of slowing down and Marlion Pickett, Trent Cotchin, Jack Riewoldt and Shane Edwards all have a contract for next season.
There's no reason the Tigers can't get close to, or even better, the Cats' output from their over 28s.
Harry Taylor did the heavy lifting for the Cats' 25-27 bracket, while Brisbane's had several champions and Hawthorn's included eight flag winners. The Tigers' current 25-27 age group has six premiership players of its own.
From those aged 24 or younger on Brisbane's list at the end of 2005, nine finished with 100 or more games as Lions. Jonathan Brown proved a generational player, however included in that were premiership players Jamie Charman and Robert Copeland. Both retired at 27.
Headlined by Joel Selwood, Cam Guthrie, Tom Hawkins and Mark Blicavs, Geelong also have nine 100-gamers in blue and white from their 24 or unders at the end of 2012.
As for Hawthorn at the end of 2016, Jack Gunston, James Sicily and Blake Hardwick are there already and Daniel Howe will soon follow suite. But apart from Tim O'Brien, no one else is in the frame in brown and gold.
In Richmond's case, Daniel Rioli is already a 100-game player, while Liam Baker, Jack Graham, Shai Bolton and Noah Balta will crash through that barrier. Then it's up to Sydney Stack, Mabior Chol, Callum Coleman-Jones, Rhyan Mansell, Jack Ross, Thomson Dow and Hugo Ralphsmith to determine if they finish with five or 13.
In the 2012 off-season Geelong brought in Jared Rivers to offset Matthew Scarlett's retirement, while Hamish McIntosh arrived for pick 38 and Josh Caddy in exchange for a mid-first-round pick.
Hawthorn went all out on midfield stars Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O'Meara while farewelling contracted trio Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis and Bradley Hill. Their first pick in the draft was Harry Morrison at No.74.
And Brisbane brought in Mitch Clark as a top-10 pick while opting not to attract big names from rival clubs.
It remains to be seen what Richmond do, although coach Damien Hardwick has indicated they'll go to the draft in the strongest fashion possible.
From 2005-2008, the Lions had success with Clark, Matthew Leuenberger, Lachie Henderson and Daniel Rich early in the draft. But only Rich will finish his career as a Lion.
The Cats didn't hit on one top-30 pick from 2012-2015, while the Hawks have gun half-back Will Day to show as their only selection in the range.
The Tigers currently have four picks inside the top 30 for 2021 which could prove their point of difference from the other three sides coming off dynasties.
Could they buck the trend and win a flag off a dynasty? Three others this century have tried and there's not one cup to show for it… yet.
LIST COMPARISONS AT THE END OF DYNASTIES RICHMOND END OF 202131+ (age as at 30 Sept): Shane Edwards, Jack Riewoldt, Trent Cotchin
28-30: Dustin Martin, Dylan Grimes, Kane Lambert, Marlion Pickett, Josh Caddy, Dion Prestia, Tom Lynch, Nathan Broad
25-27: Kamdyn McIntosh, Nick Vlastuin, Toby Nankervis, Jake Aarts, Jayden Short, Matthew Parker, Ivan Soldo, Jason Castagna
22-24: Daniel Rioli, Mabior Chol*, Liam Baker, Jack Graham, Derek Egmolesse-Smith*, Ryan Garthwaite*, Shai Bolton, Patrick Naish*, Mate Colina, Callum Coleman-Jones*, Ben Miller*,
18-21: Noah Balta, Riley Collier-Dawkins, Sydney Stack, Rhyan Mansell*, Jack Ross, Samson Ryan, Noah Cumberland*, Will Martyn, Bigoa Nyuon*, Thomson Dow, Hugo Ralphsmith, Maurice Rioli jnr
*Out-of-contract
Retirements/departures: Bachar Houli, David Astbury
Hand at the draft: 2x first-round picks, 2x second-round picks, 2x third-round picks
HAWTHORN END OF 201631+ (age as at 30 Sept): Shaun Burgoyne, Josh Gibson, Luke Hodge
28-30: Jarryd Roughead, Jordan Lewis, Paul Puopolo, Grant Birchall, James Frawley
25-27: Isaac Smith, Ben Stratton, Ben McEvoy, Cyril Rioli, Brenan Whitecross, Ryan Schoenmakers, Luke Breust, Jon Ceglar, Taylor Duryea, Liam Shiels, Jack Fitzpatrick
22-24: Jack Gunston, Will Langford, Tim O'Brien, Kaiden Brand, Jonathan O'Rourke
18-21: Kurt Heatherley, James Sicily, Billy Hartung, Dallas Willsmore, Daniel Howe, Marc Pittonet, Teia Miles, Kade Stewart, Ryan Burton, Blake Hardwick, Kieran Lovell, Conor Glass, Luke Surman
Retirements/departures: Sam Mitchell (West Coast), Jordan Lewis (Melbourne), Bradley Hill, (Melbourne), Matt Spangher, Angus Litherland, Alex Woodward, Shem Tatupu, Zac Webster, Jermaine Miller-Lewis, Lachlan Langford
Draft/arrivals: Tom Mitchell (Sydney), Jaeger O'Meara (Gold Coast), Tyrone Vickery (Richmond), Ricky Henderson (Adelaide), Harry Morrison (#74), Mitchell Lewis (#76), Ollie Hanrahan (#14, rookie), James Cousins (#46), Conor Nash (Cat B)
Subsequent finishes: 12th (2017), Semi-final (2018), Ninth (2019)
GEELONG END OF 201231+ (age as at 30 Sept): James Podsiadly, Corey Enright
28-30: Paul Chapman, Joel Corey, Josh Hunt, Steve Johnson, Jimmy Bartel, James Kelly, Tom Lonergan, Andrew Mackie
25-27: Mathew Stokes, Harry Taylor, Ryan Bathie
22-24: Trent West, Travis Varcoe, Joel Selwood, Jackson Sheringham, Tom Hawkins, Dawson Simpson, Mitch Brown
18-21: Taylor Hunt, Steven Motlop, Josh Cowan, Mark Blicavs, Jesse Stringer, Allen Christensen, Mitch Duncan, Nathan Vardy, Daniel Menzel, Jordan Murdoch, Billie Smedts, George Burbury, Cam Guthrie, Josh Walker, Jordan Schroder, George Horlin-Smith, Shane Kersten, Joel Hamling, Cam Eardley, Lincoln McCarthy, Jed Bews
Retirements/departures: Shannon Byrnes (Melbourne), Jonathan Simpkin (Hawthorn), Tom Gillies (Melbourne), Matthew Scarlett, David Wojcinski, Simon Hogan, Orren Stephenson,
Draft/arrivals: Jared Rivers (Melbourne), Hamish McIntosh (North Melbourne), Josh Caddy (Gold Coast), Jackson Thurlow (#16), Brad Hartman (#77)
Subsequent finishes: Prelim final (2013), Semi-final (2014), 10th (2015)
BRISBANE END OF 200531+ (age as at 30 Sept): Nil
28-30: Michael Voss, Justin Leppitsch, Clark Keating, Brad Scott, Chris Scott, Chris Johnson, Nigel Lappin, Jason Akermanis, Mal Michael
25-27: Tim Notting, Daniel Bradshaw, Simon Black, Beau McDonald, Luke Power
22-24: Robert Copeland, Jonathan Brown, Jamie Charman, Richard Hadley, Josh Drummond, Ash McGrath
18-21: Troy Selwood, Anthony Corrie, Jared Brennan, Joel Macdonald, Daniel Merrett, Marty Pask, Matthew Moody, Jed Adcock, Michael Rischitelli, Jayden Attard, Marcus Allan, Scott Harding, Will Hamill, Justin Sherman, Luke Forsyth, Cameron Wood, Pat Garner
Retirements/departures: Tom Logan (Port Adelaide), Martin Pike, Llane Spanderman, Darryl White, Dylan McLaren, Leigh Ryswyk, Travis Baird
Draft/arrivals: Mitch Clark (#9), Wayde Mills (#25), Rhan Hooper (#41), Joel Patfull (#56), Ben Fixter (Pre-Season), Jason Roe (#6, rookie), Leonard Clark (#22, rookie), Cheynee Stiller (#49, rookie), Colm Begley (#57, rookie), Brendan Quigley (#59, rookie)
Subsequent finishes: 13th (2006), 10th (2007), 10th (2008)
https://www.afl.com.au/news/667036/fall-or-rise-again-will-the-tiger-dynasty-go-the-way-of-cats-lions-or-hawks-
