The super draft
Emma Quayle
The Age
July 1, 2006
Rarely has a cluster of young stars shone so brightly as the group that will enter this year’s AFL national draft. Emma Quayle reveals why your club can’t wait to get its hands on them.
Tomorrow, Vic Metro and Vic Country will play for another under-18 title, and more young players will twitch the curtains on careers that may lie ahead.
Country’s Lachie Hansen will take on the rampaging Tom Hawkins, if he has recovered from some concussion; if not, Nathan Brown might get the job.
Shaun Grigg will shoot balls to Brown’s twin brother, Mitchell. Ben Reid will be steady, and Travis Boak busy. If Hawkins doesn’t mark for Metro, big Chris Dawes might haul the ball in.
The big question before this week’s championships was whether this new batch of budding AFL players dripped with as much talent as their 2001 counterparts.
With one weekend to go, the word "superdraft" is still being uttered. Is it really that good?
The Western Bulldogs recruiting manager, Scott Clayton, says he has never seen such a promising first round take shape.
St Kilda’s John Beveridge likes the first part, too, but is more circumspect about what will arrive later down the line.
Essendon’s Adrian Dodoro believes it’s a big year for big players, but not so good for smaller ones, while Adelaide’s James Fantasia says an explosion of talent from Queensland has given this draft pool a new, and significant, layer of depth.
Melbourne recruiter Craig Cameron subscribes to the first-round theory too, but urges caution.
"When you look back at 2001, it’s a draft that’s become better in hindsight, because of what these guys have gone on and done," he said.
"In 2001 we knew the top three were going to be special, but others have come on better than we expected. I’m sure if everyone knew Nick Dal Santo was going to be as good as he is, he wouldn’t have got to pick 13.
"This might be one of those drafts that actually becomes worse in hindsight, because we’ve been pumping it up, but there’s no doubt it’s an exciting group.
"It might turn out to be better, and it might be worse. But when you compare it to other years, it’s certainly a unique group."
IN 2001, Brad Miller got through to pick 55, and Brian Harris to No. 71. Adelaide picked up not only Ben Rutten in the rookie draft, but Nathan Bock and Martin Mattner, too.
How far this draft will stretch remains to be seen, but the recruiters agree that there is something for all of them in the first round and, with any luck, the second.
Some years, two or three players have separated themselves clearly from the pack by draft day; other years, it might be six, seven or eight. This year, about 20 have been placed on the top shelf.
According to Adelaide recruiting manager James Fantasia: "One of the advantages of our system is that, if you finish last often enough, you're going to gather a pool of very good players that will quickly help close the gap.
"When you have a draft that's high in its depth of quality, it will actually work against some of the lower teams. It's a good year to be good because even the top teams are going to get two very good players from this draft."
THE BIG BOYSFive years ago, quick, nimble feet were all the rage. Luke Hodge, Luke Ball and Chris Judd led out the class of 2001, and only four of the first 20 players picked were not runners.
This time, it's the taller boys who have everyone talking. Bryce Gibbs is the best onballer on offer, by far, and he's elite. But the other contenders for the No. 1 pick are taller, and the bulk of the first-rounders could well be key-position prospects.
The best of them have done their chances no harm this week. Scott Gumbleton is 195 centimetres, a strong mark and brave. Lachie Hansen is also 195 centimetres, a strong mark and brave.
James Sellar was sick in bed the week before the championships, but came to Melbourne having already played senior footy for Glenelg. He's 195 centimetres and, strangely enough, a strong mark. He's also about six months younger than them.
Mitch Thorp has withstood big amounts of pressure. His Tasmanian teammate Jack Riewoldt kicked three match-snatching goals in game one, and Matthew Leuenberger is one of the more skilful, smooth-moving ruck prospects you'll see. The big Brown twins have impressed, one at each end.
Then there is a bundle of tall, athletic Queenslanders: Kurt Tippett, a recent convert from basketball, and Brent Renouf, another ruckman. Essendon recruiting manager Adrian Dodoro thinks there is uncertainty about this year's draft because so many of the top players are tall, and because tall players take time to develop. But others think this year's group is not only super-talented, but almost ready to go.
"This is an exceptional group and they're going to come on in a hurry, I don't think there's any doubt about that," said Collingwood recruiting manager Derek Hine.
"Hansen could come in straight away, Gumbleton could, and Tom Hawkins certainly could. I think the special thing about these guys is not only that they've got talent, but that they've already got the bodies to come in and play pretty quickly."
THE MIDFIELDERSDavid Armitage, Ricky Petterd and Albert Proud have driven the Queensland midfield. Travis Boak, a Geelong boy, played well in Country's opening match; Shaun Grigg, a Ballarat boy, has been solid in both.
Grigg has improved enormously since he was overlooked at last November's draft, which means a club might have to use a reasonably high pick on him now, like Hawthorn did with Jordan Lewis.
Dodoro believes that while the plethora of tall players gives this draft great potential, it's already obvious that 2001 had better midfielders.
As it turns out, the best onballers this draft coughs up might not have played in the middle this week. Clayton Collard and Leroy Jetta are two small, skilful bundles of West Australian excitement who might turn out that way.
"The midfielders aren't obvious this year, but they're there," said Western Bulldogs recruiting manager Scott Clayton. "This is a year where you can look at it and imagine which guys will slot in there, down the track."
The curiosity in this category will be Joel Selwood. He has hardly played this year because of a knee injury and probably will not play again before the draft.
But he's a tough onballer with all the skills, and who has virtually captained Vic Country from the sidelines. Selwood has some serious runs on the board, and was rated very highly last year. It will be interesting to see where he is slotted in.
HOW GOOD IS GIBBS?This time five years ago, your average everyday football fan would never have heard the names Hodge, Ball or Judd. Gibbs is a name people know, partly because he was dragged into the father-son rule changes that prevented Adelaide from snaffling him, and also because he can play some pretty good footy.
No boxes would have been crossed this week. Gibbs has fought a strong tide, playing almost two full games in the middle for a team that has been badly beaten.
He's smart, he's creative, he can kick, and he has poise. "He's a very good player," said Kangaroos' recruiting manager Neville Stibbard. "He's just an elite decision-maker, simple as that. He gets the footy and he hurts you with it. He reads the play beautifully."
HOW GOOD IS HAWKINS?It's hard to remember a player not only looking like a handy father-son pick, but commanding a carnival like Geelong's latest freebie. Hawkins has looked twice the size of everyone else out there, and already has taken 12 contested marks this carnival. Six more in the final and he will beat Justin Koschitzke's record from 2000.
Cats coach Mark Thompson watched his 195-centimetre, 97-kilogram monster beat up Western Australia on Wednesday with recruiting manager Stephen Wells, football manager Garry Davidson and a selection of assistant coaches. There were wide smiles all round.
"He's probably the best tallish type player that we've had an opportunity to get," Thompson said. "He looks like a ready-made player, really."
Clayton saw Jonathan Brown impose his 17-year-old self on unsuspecting opponents a few years back, but believes Hawkins has made a bigger impression. "Brown was good, but he didn't play to this kid's level, not at all," he said.
TALENT FROM NEW PLACESThere are no complaints that Queensland has so much to give this year. Eight or more draft prospects to keep an eye on will means there will be plenty of suntanned recruiters come draft day. Those numbers are what give this draft pool its depth.
Clayton is careful in his evaluation of the sunshine-staters because they've played in second-division company, but Hine is comfortable with how they've been rated.
"You ask yourself, how would a guy like Ricky Petterd, who's averaging 28 or 29 possessions, go for Vic Metro? I reckon he'd still be the same player," he said.
"What you're looking at is the potential of the player, and his physical attributes, and how he attacks the ball. If you can play, you can play. I think we're safe in saying there's eight or 10 of the Queensland kids who would be a pretty good chance to get drafted this year."
A more familiar AFL playground, Western Australia, is also expected to provide a pile of draftees. It's normally Victoria that fills out the draft by proving 40-plus per cent of draftees, but the thinking this year is that the depth will come from other places.
LEADERSHIPLeadership is a quality Melbourne recruiting manager Craig Cameron has sensed in fewer players these past few years. But it's something he believes this group can offer.
"Leadership isn't something that gets promoted as much as it used to. That might be an old fogy's view of the world, but it's getting harder to find kids who take on responsibility and take on leadership roles," he said.
"A lot of the players who are highly rated also seem to have some leadership skills this year. That's a real bonus."
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