Tigers' list chasms that have emerged & the young guns who can fill them (Fox)

[one-eyed]

The list chasms that have emerged at Richmond — and the young guns who can fill them with epic draft haul

Jack Jovanovski
Fox Sports
October 27th, 2024 4:40 pm

Armed with a destructive draft hand reminiscent of the early 2010s expansion clubs, it would be an understatement to call Richmond a fascinating watch come late November.

The Tigers currently hold eight selections within the first 24 picks — 1, 6, 10, 11, 18, 20, 23 and 24 — with a genuine possibility they trade with North Melbourne for Pick 2.

It remains to be seen whether an agreement to swap will be reached — the Herald Sun reported recently North Melbourne is open to offering Pick 2 and a future first-rounder in exchange for Richmond’s Picks 6 and 11 — but regardless, the Tigers will have plenty of movement options to consider come night one on November 20.

Foxfooty.com.au analyses Richmond’s list state of play, as well as the draftees it could target to fill significant voids.


KEY DEFENCE

Who’s already there?

Richmond recently secured the future of Noah Balta, with the 25-year-old fending off the prospect of 2025 free agency and instead agreeing to a seven-year extension — tying him to Tigerland until the end of 2032. And boy, do they need him around for the long haul. This season, Balta achieved a career-best contested defensive one-on-one loss rate of just 12.5 per cent. He lost 31.6 per cent of contests in 2023. Balta posted an above-average 5.9 marks per game and also averaged 3.2 score involvements per game rated ‘elite’ among key defenders. Continuity is key for the ambitious interceptor, having been incessantly switched between defence and attack through seven AFL seasons.

Arguably the most critical trajectory at Tigerland is that of Josh Gibcus. The 21-year-old played 18 games in his rookie season — exhibiting promising flashes as a key-position interceptor after being drafted ninth overall in 2021 — before debilitating hamstring and knee issues stunted his progress. He missed the entire 2023 season due to a serious hamstring injury — which ultimately required a visit to Qatar later that year to consult further with specialists — and played just two senior games this year before falling victim to an ACL rupture in Round 1. Gibcus was one of five (!) Tigers to rupture their anterior cruciate ligament in 2024. Provided he can stay healthy in year three, Gibcus still projects as a key long-term pillar for the Tigers.

Speaking of succumbing to ACL tears, Tylar Young had his campaign cut short after going down during a VFL match in May. While the 26-year-old struggled in one-on-one contests this year, he showed promise as a key-position stopper in 2023 when he played 19 senior games. Young was scooped out of Richmond’s VFL program at the end of 2022 and played in nine of the Tigers’ first 10 games this season before suffering his knee injury.

Unexpectedly thrust into an enhanced 2024 role was Ben Miller. Miller’s seven spoils and nine pressure acts per game rated as elite among key defenders, and while he was sometimes left in the dust by opposing key forwards, the 25-year-old became an integral cog in the back half of this season in the absence of Gibcus and Young.

While the majority of defensive focus justifiably falls on Gibcus, the development of Jacob Blight is a space worth watching. Blight could be a valuable asset for Richmond going forward. Without jumping the gun and labelling him a ‘long-term player’, the big-bodied 22-year-old exhibited athleticism in three games late this year — including an eight-mark performance in Round 23 against Hawthorn. An AFL pre-season will do him a world of good. The Tigers clearly see potential in the Peel Thunder product, having signed him for a further season after the mid-season draftee initially opted for a six-month deal.

Which draftee(s) could fill a hole?

Alix Tauru: North Melbourne is thought to be infatuated with Tauru, whose aerial dominance and defensive IQ is expected to see him off the board within the first 10 selections on November 20. In saying that, the Tigers could be positioned to nab the blonde-haired stopper before the Roos get the chance — although the sense is the Kangaroos would only trade down if it felt Tauru would still be on the board at that pick. In Coates Talent League action for the Gippsland Power, Tauru averaged 14.5 disposals, 3.7 intercept marks and 7.3 intercept possessions.

Luke Trainor: The Sandringham Dragons defender is considered the next best key-defensive option on offer after Tauru, having averaged 19.8 disposals, 5.8 marks and 4.5 intercepts in four championships games for Vic Metro. If Richmond sees room for an upgrade in its crop of developing tall stoppers, it could swoop on the 194cm interceptor Trainor, who could slip down the order on night one.


GENERAL DEFENCE

Who’s already there?

With Dylan Grimes retiring, Nick Vlastuin leads this teething backline into 2025. The club’s most consistent back-half player, is there a current Tiger more universally loved than ‘Tigger’? It remains a football travesty he hasn’t received an All-Australian gong throughout his glittering 233-game career. Regardless, in 2025, Vlastuin will again set the benchmark for these young Tigers with his diagnostic reading of the play and overall defensive discipline.

In a near-identical mould to Vlastuin, Nathan Broad has a key on and off-field role to play next year. The Western Australian was described by club president John O’Rourke at Richmond’s best and fairest night as the personification of “a Richmond man” — perhaps also a thinly-veiled swipe at the departing duo of Shai Bolton and Liam Baker. Broad, who played 22 games this year and is contracted for a further two seasons, was again ranked above average for intercept possessions with 5.2 per game.

A player whose rebounding impact hasn’t been truly felt for a few years, Jayden Short should be plotting a figurative rebound. The 2020 Jack Dyer Medallist has played at least 21 games in four of the past five seasons and is contracted for another three years. In addition to his influence game-to-game, Short will be among the senior Tigers relied upon from a leadership perspective.

If there is a standout breakout candidate going into next season, Tom Brown is it. The 21-year-old’s pure kicking skills have been a marvel throughout his first 19 AFL outings. While he was trialled in the forward half to end this season, Brown arguably best projects as a mid-sized intercepting rebounder. His play style mimics Vlastuin — and heading into year four, a true coming-of-age campaign from the Murray Bushrangers product could be on the cards.

The man labelled ‘Trigger’ at VFL level because of his counter-attacking capability, James Trezise — now AFL-listed after being plucked from the reserves squad — was recently rewarded with a one-year extension. The 22-year-old played seven senior games this year after making his AFL debut in Richmond’s 2023 season finale. The smooth-moving left-footer is still working things out at the professional level, but at his confident best, he is an adventurous line-breaker exiting the defensive half.

Another of the young Tigers set to benefit from more senior opportunities following Daniel Rioli’s departure to Gold Coast, Kaleb Smith has a big year ahead as he aims to earn another contract. Whether the East Fremantle product can potentially develop into a smaller shutdown type who can play on opposing small forwards will be an interesting subplot to follow. Alternatively, he might project more favourably as a Liam Baker-type of jack-of-all-trades.

Which draftee(s) could fill a hole?

Tobie Travaglia: While the likes of Trezise and Smith project to have enhanced roles next season, Richmond might have the opportunity to pounce on a mid-sized shutdown defender who can be the answer at that position for a decade-plus. The Bendigo Pioneers product was instrumental for Vic Country at the championships, posting averages of 21.8 disposals, 6.2 marks, 8.2 intercepts across four eye-catching outings. Travaglia could also provide a midfield rotation option.

Bo Allan: Understandably, West Coast is keen on the Western Australian, who will likely start out playing a defensive role at the professional level before making a midfield progression. But while the Eagles loom, considering Richmond’s success with WA products in recent seasons and the fact it will have first say — West Coast doesn’t pick until No. 12 — the Tigers shape as a genuine chance of making a play with their second or third selections in the 10s. Allan played 10 WAFL games this year for an average of 11.5 disposals. Like Travaglia, Allan could also rotate through the midfield.


MIDFIELD

Who’s already there?

Someone who cherishes being at the bottom of a pack, the key improvement point for Tim Taranto remains his disposal use. While nobody expects a clearance-winning midfielder to have a perfect efficiency rating, the 26-year-old is too often prone to a clanger in open play — particularly when the onus is on him to use the Sherrin precisely by foot. The 152-gamer’s career disposal efficiency of 63.7 per cent is below average compared to his midfield peers, as was his kicking efficiency of just 49.7 per cent this season.

Jacob Hopper has juggled injuries since arriving at Punt Road, managing just 12 senior games this year after a hamstring strain stunted his progress. The North Ballarat product’s 47.7 per cent kicking efficiency this year was below average among fellow midfielders — hinting at a similar issue to Taranto — but at his best, Hopper weaves through congestion and is able to deliver accurately.

As well as game-style progression, bringing the youth along will be one of next season’s priorities, and Dion Prestia is among the older heads set to play a large part in that. The 32-year-old veteran can still win a hard ball and will set the benchmark for his young counterparts. Prestia averaged 22.0 disposals from 13 games, having again battled soft-tissue injuries — this year of both the hamstring and calf varieties.

Among the numerous injury-hampered Tigers seeking 2025 continuity is Jack Ross. The 24-year-old hasn’t been able to nail down a consistent engine-room role in his time at Punt Road, and while this year didn’t play out the way he would have liked — sidelined for most of the season with a foot stress fracture and appearing in just seven matches — there is a wide-open window of opportunity for the six-year ball-winner to make his mark as a pure centre-bounce operator in 2025. Ross was rewarded with a two-year contract extension in July.

Easily Richmond’s most improved player in 2024, running machine Hugo Ralphsmith made a spot on a wing his own this year. The Sandringham product played a career-high 18 senior games this year and showcased his capability as a two-way player, averaging 13.6 disposals and a career-best 2.9 inside-50s per game.

A player whose positional versatility indicates he could be deployed in multiple different ways next season, Sam Banks figures to see more senior opportunities one way or the other. The Tasmanian hasn’t been a frequent fixture in the best team since arriving in 2021, but with Rioli no longer in the fold, his precise disposal and rebounding abilities make him a candidate to fill a considerable void across half-back. Alternatively, the 21-year-old’s running capacity means he projects as a solid longer-term wing option opposite Ralphsmith.

After waiting a little while to have his playing future secured, two-time flag-winner Kamdyn McIntosh was awarded another contract for next year. One of just eight remaining Tigers from the 2020 premiership side, the wingman is another in a line of veterans who will be counted on to steer the rookies in the right direction. The recommitment of McIntosh is just as important from a cultural perspective as it is for on-field performance.

North Adelaide left-footer Kane McAuliffe needs to add polish to his game, but in just a year at Tigerland, he has shown promise as a clearance winner. Next year may not necessarily produce a breakout campaign, but with another pre-season under his belt, the arrow is pointing up for the 2023 second-rounder.

Ahead of the AFL’s list lodgement period closure on October 31, Thomson Dow earned a one-year extension of his contract after a period of limbo during the player exchange window. Dow has struggled with consistency since arriving as a first-round pick in 2019, and Richmond’s recent show of faith likely represents the final opportunity for the former Bendigo Pioneer to make a lasting impact.

Which draftee(s) could fill a hole?

Sam Lalor: The growing expectation is Richmond selects the Victoria Country star with the first overall selection. A player who wore the No. 4 guernsey, idolised Dustin Martin and plays in comparable fashion, it seems a dream partnership. The Greater Western Victoria Rebels product projects as a forward-of-centre star — invaluable in the modern game. In four Talent League games for the Rebels, Lalor posted 23.0 disposals, 6.2 clearances and 5.8 marks per game, as well as 1.3 goals across three championships games.

Finn O’Sullivan: Having been compared with Western Bulldogs superstar Marcus Bontempelli, the expectations placed on O’Sullivan will be high despite an injury-interrupted draft year. But the explosive ball-winner, who lined up for Richmond’s VFL outfit on a one-off occasion this year, seems up for the challenge. Carlton will have its eyes on the second cousin of Sam Walsh, holding the No. 3 choice. In four games for the Oakleigh Chargers, O’Sullivan averaged 17.2 disposals, 3.0 clearances and 1.2 goals.

Jagga Smith: The serial accumulator teased Tigers fans with his pair of promising VFL appearances this year, notching an average of 25.5 disposals. The Victoria Metro gem was the most consistent midfielder of this year’s crop; named captain of the under-18 All-Australian side after topping the championships charts for disposals, contested possessions and clearances. Smith averaged a staggering 33.8 disposals and 7.9 clearances for the Oakleigh Chargers this year.

Harvey Langford: A Richmond fan growing up, it would be a dream for Langford to have his named called at No. 1 — but it seems an outside chance compared with the aforementioned trio. The 190-centimetre ball-winner played 15 games for the Stingrays in the Talent League for averages of 25.9 disposals, 4.7 clearances and 1.3 goals.

Josh Smillie: A prospect that has fallen slightly down the board in past months, Smillie could be a consideration for Richmond at No. 6 if it keeps the choice — or, it could swoop if he is still available in the 10s. However, if it was up to Jagga Smith, Smillie should be drafted first overall, telling foxfooty.com.au: “A 194cm midfielder that doesn’t rely on size — those types don’t grow on trees. I think he could be anything in the AFL competition.” The big-bodied Eastern Ranges talent averaged 25.5 disposals, 4.8 clearances and 1.3 goals in 12 Talent League games this year.

[one-eyed]

RUCKMEN

Who’s already there?

The epitomisation of leading by example, skipper Toby Nankervis craves physicality at the coalface. The 30-year-old is starting to get up there in age, so the Tigers will surely assess the possibility of drafting a developmental ruckman. But in the short term, the 157-game Tasmanian remains one of Richmond’s biggest weekly contributors.

While he has flashed glimpses of being a crafty tap ruckman, Samson Ryan hasn’t shown enough to this point to warrant confidence that he can be a long-term answer at the position — particularly as Nankervis’ career begins to wind down. The former Brisbane Lions Academy prospect in July put pen to paper on a three-year extension, tying him to Punt Road until at least the end of the 2027 season, but the Tigers surely want to see more out of the thinly-built tall.

A project ruckman, former Perth Wildcats basketballer Oliver Hayes-Brown was thrown into the deep end at VFL level late this year but held his own. He will benefit from another pre-season, but don’t expect to see him at senior level anytime soon.

Speaking of basketball types, former Hawaii collegiate athlete Mate Colina has been plagued by back issues effectively since arriving at Punt Road in 2021. And while the Tigers officially delisted Colina in late October, they have committed to re-listing him as a rookie for 2025.

Which draftee(s) could fill a hole?

Alex Dodson: The 203-centimetre South Australian ultimately decided on football over basketball as he prepares to potentially be taken on night one of the draft, and he is likely the only ruckman Richmond would consider in the early going. There currently isn’t a post-Nankervis plan in place — unless you’re putting full faith in Ryan — and the Tigers have the flexibility to use a later top-24 choice on a developmental tapster. In three championships outings, Sturt product Dodson notched 17.3 disposals, 19.7 hit-outs and 3.7 clearances per game.


KEY FORWARDS

Who’s already there?

Spearhead Tom Lynch has played a combined eight matches in the past two seasons due to foot and hamstring injuries, but if the 31-year-old can stay on the park next year, Richmond’s productivity ahead of the ball is set for an uptick. Lynch, who is just two years removed from a 63-goal season in 2022, has a couple of good years of football in him if he can get his body right — perhaps new high-performance boss Ben Serpell can have an influence in this space.

Former Hawthorn forward Jacob Koschitzke hasn’t set the world on fire since transitioning from Waverley Park to Punt Road, having capped a maiden Tigers campaign that netted just 12 goals from 14 games. Depending on available personnel at points next season, don’t be surprised to see the 24-year-old tried in defence.

Before becoming the latest in a line of ACL victims, rugby league convert Mykelti Lefau was a rare ray of positivity in an otherwise bleak season for the Tigers, surprising many with his rapid ascent after joining the fray as a pre-season supplementary addition. The former Richmond VFL-listed utility booted 14 majors through 10 AFL matches, asserting himself as a forward-50 target. Once he is able to return, he should provide valuable support to a hopefully-healthy Lynch.

Speaking of supporting Richmond’s talisman Lynch, Jacob Bauer has flashed as a mid-sized marking target through seven career games. There is scope for the 22-year-old to own a best-23 spot as a gap-bridger between smalls and talls in the Tigers’ forward-line. Another who has battled more than his fair share of injury hindrances, the North Adelaide product is looking to make his mark in year three.

Arriving with Blight, Campbell Gray adjusted to the Punt Road surrounds after joining mid-year. The 195-centimetre target put pen to paper on another contract at Tigerland in August and will have an opportunity to debut at the senior level with Lefau set to miss the early-to-middle portion of the 2025 campaign and Lynch no guarantee to remain fit.

Developmental key-position target Liam Fawcett has been hampered by back injuries to begin his AFL tenure and should have tempered expectations going into his second season.

Which draftee(s) could fill a hole?

Harry Armstrong: You can just about bank on Richmond targeting a key-position forward at the draft, or, at the very least, a lengthy swingman. The Tigers know Lynch is gradually winding down, and they aren’t in a position to rely on any of Koschitzke, Lefau, Bauer or Fawcett for match-winning influence. Armstrong presents as the best key forward option to consider in the early going on November 20, and while No. 6 might be a tad early, key-forward-needy Melbourne will be lurking ominously at No. 9. The Vic Metro gun averaged three goals per game in the championships.

Jobe Shanahan: Shanahan could be a consideration later in the first round, having showcased his contested marking ability with Essendon’s VFL side this year. The 194-centimetre prospect averaged 5.5 marks across four championships games for the Allies.

Jack Whitlock: The 200-centimetre Murray Bushrangers forward is another the Tigers could consider late in the first round. Through 12 Talent League games for the Bushrangers, Whitlock notched averages of 16.4 disposals, 4.8 marks and 2.1 goals.


GENERAL FORWARDS

Who’s already there?

In a relatively unexpected revelation in a similar mould to Ralphsmith, Rhyan Mansell asserted himself in ways Richmond supporters wouldn’t have imagined. The 24-year-old had a career-best season this year, kicking 21 goals in 21 senior games — both easily career-bests — while playing a predominantly defensive-minded role under first-year senior coach Adem Yze.

After failing to appear in his debut season at Punt Road, Tasmanian speedster Seth Campbell played 21 games and kicked 10 goals as a dangerous crumber. The 19-year-old evidently made a positive impression on Yze and seems to have made a best-23 spot his own, but the likes of Maurice Rioli Jr. and Steely Green — and potentially a draft addition in November — will keep Campbell honest in 2025.

One of the most relentless pressuring forwards in the competition, Maurice Rioli Jr. is looking for consistency in his game in order to take it to the next level. When he is buzzing around with confidence, he is more than a handful for opposition defences to contend with.

A prolific crumbing forward at VFL level — kicking 12 goals in 10 reserves games this year — Steely Green has the opportunity to break into the senior side and become a mainstay in his third season.

One of the more positionally versatile assets at Yze’s disposal next year, Judson Clarke can play various role ranging between half-forward, the wing, or even off a half-back flank. Rehabilitating an ACL rupture from April, patience is required regarding the former No. 30 pick’s progress in year four.

Another from Richmond’s five-fold crop of early 2021 draftees, Tyler Sonsie played a career-best 14 senior games after managing a combined 10 across his first two seasons. Still, the former Eastern Ranges ball-getter struggled to retain a consistent spot in the senior side playing a predominantly half-forward role.

Which draftee(s) could fill a hole?

Murphy Reid: Before inevitably moving on-ball, the Victoria Metro hybrid is likely to begin his AFL career in attack, using his ball-winning abilities to have scoreboard impact. With the Tigers in evident need of midfield talent and depth, it wouldn’t take long for the Sandringham Dragons product to push into the guts. The 180-centimetre utility averaged 27.2 disposals, 4.4 clearances and 1.1 goals in eight Talent League games.

Joe Berry: With Isaac Kako Essendon-bound in the first round, Berry has a claim to the mantle of best pure small forward prospect in the open pool, and after forward-half livewire Bolton’s departure, Richmond could consider the Murray Bushrangers goalsneak — who averaged 14.0 disposals and kicked 27 goals in the Talent League this year.

Taj Hotton: Likely a consideration later in the first round, Hotton shouldn’t be forgotten despite suffering an ACL injury this year. The setback has cost him a slip down the order after initially being in top-10 calculations. Before hurting himself, Hotton averaged 28.7 disposals, 7.3 marks and 1.7 goals across three Talent League games for the Dragons. He is the younger brother of St Kilda onballer Olli.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/teams/richmond-tigers/afl-draft-2024-richmond-tigers-list-analysis-which-players-will-they-pick-sam-lalor-jagga-smith-finn-osullivan-when-is-the-draft-latest-news/news-story/1cdf76ce20a766c1abc861e96e445f52

[the claw]

List Chasm's geez even a few in the media can see it.
Just how did those gaping holes get there ? They didn't just happen overnight.

[Diocletian]

Yes but the media hate Richmond almost as much as you do.