I would expect Adelaide to beat Freo this week, thus putting them out of calculations.
If Collingwood were to lose to the Bulldogs in round 17, I'd almost be inclined to say tank the game against them in round 18, JUST so they clear the 5 1/2 game buffer, as they could concievably lose all their other games. Forgive me Father, for I have sinned...
IF the doggies beat Collingwood and Hawthorn, they will miss out too. Still a possibility.
Likely scenario is that Hawthorn, Richmond and Bulldogs will get concessions...provided we do the right thing.