Challenges in tapping the draft
Stephen Rielly | November 1, 2007 | The Age
IN 2004, Hawthorn turned to a young coach and the draft to pull out of its spiral into systemic failure. It was a radical path to reinvention, for it placed an absolute faith in two things: the recuperative powers of early round draft picks and the people entrusted with the responsibility of spending them.
Three years on and this faith does not appear to have been misplaced. The Hawks have wind beneath their wings; a list of top-end talent and structure that has its best years ahead of it instead of behind it, a vault full of salary cap dollars to chase the right deal and a powerful sense of renewal that is gradually refocusing everyone's gaze from the past to the future.
It is, though, an outcome that discounts the bravery involved in decision-making, a courage some might describe as foolhardiness given the field of first-round draft choices felled in recent weeks like so many poppies.
When the first of this year's post-season list lodgements were confirmed yesterday, the log of casualties included no fewer than 11 first-round draftees of the past six years, with a further five of their rarefied kind among those traded away.
If these numbers are enough to prompt any draft-watcher to wonder whether the lustre attached to a first-round selection is as much dust as stardust, for various reasons they did not include Chris Judd, Travis Johnstone or Justin Longmuir, who retired yesterday due to a chronic knee problem.
"I've never seen so many go in one year," said Richmond's director of football, Greg Miller.Said Melbourne's list and recruiting manager, Craig Cameron: "People think first rounders are a 100 per cent certainty but they're not. The figure is actually about 70 per cent and that is by defining success as 50 games."
Two aspects of this seemingly high number of first-round failures stand out; some drafts are clearly stronger than others and many of those culled or traded are taller players of at least 190 centimetres.
For example, the national draft of 2001 that is revered for delivering Luke Hodge, Luke Ball and Judd has, in fact, not lived up to its impeccable reputation. Ashley Sampi (pick 6), Richard Cole (11) and Barry Brooks (15) were among yesterday's departed, as were others of the class of 2001 before them in Luke Molan (9), Ashley Watson (14) and Shane Harvey (18). Moreover, Sam Power (10) was traded last month as Jason Gram (19) was in 2003.
The 2003 draft is another that has since seen a good number of its elite selections disappear. Kepler Bradley (6), David Trotter (9), Ryley Dunn (10) and Fergus Watts (14) were all formally dispensed with yesterday, as Billy Morrison (17) and Llane Spaanderman (18) were earlier.
"You get great drafts and then you get others in between where a pick 10 player isn't as good as a pick 25 player in a strong year," said Miller. "You're not dealing with the same commodity from year to year; the same pick in different years will buy players of very different quality."The disappearance or shuffling of so many unfulfilled ruckmen and key position players has another explanation, according to Sydney's manager of player acquisition, Kinnear Beatson.
"A number of them are taller players who have had long-running battles with serious injury — Brooks with a bad knee, Walsh with a knee, Watts with a broken leg and ankle, for example," Beatson said.
"But I've got a theory on tall players, too, that I think counts for something here. In my opinion, they're either really good and they become the spine of your team or they're not quite good enough and they don't have anywhere else to go and forge a career.
"A midfielder, on the other hand, can end up being a run-with tagger or a defender or change his game and reinvent himself. A tall generally has nowhere else to go and therefore he becomes more expendable."
Cameron, like Beatson, has other suspicions, too. He asks whether the high number of new coaches appointed recently has anything to do with the figures. "New coaches don't necessarily have the loyalty to a player that his predecessor did," Cameron said.
Said Beatson: "It might also suggest that list sizes are still too small. There isn't a lot of room to carry people for extra seasons. Patience isn't encouraged."
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