Lack of close AFL games.

[the_boy_jake]

Does the AFL have a problem with the lack of close matches?

By a quick count only four games all season have had a winning margin < 2 goals. I think its only about 6 if you go to a margin of three goals, which is basically as far as you can go claiming the game was 'close'. The number of 40, 50+ point blowouts seems more than ever. By contrast the NRL had four games this round settled by a try or less and 16 games this season (5 rounds) by such a margin.

So there are some natural factors such as the openess of AFL, the longer playing time and the one-on-one nature which means that if you have 3 or 4 clear winning matchups you can really cash in on the scoreboard.

But are draft rules creating a two-track system where half the clubs may not admit it but there is an incentive to lose, creating a losing mentality. Are the rule changes created to make the game more open leading to more one sided games?

Interested to know your thoughts.

[Hellenic Tiger]

The gap between the lower teams and the better teams is far too wide.
Better teams have far more skill and class and the bottom 3 or 4 in W Coast us Dees and Freo.

Hence blowouts in many cases. The closer games have been pretty much teams that are close and even  8 pts Geel and Haw 4 pts Coll v Adel. These two results indicate that the comabatants in these two matches will finish very close to each other on the ladder.

Sure we took it up to the Cats last week but only for 1.5 quarters.Hence the larger margin. The top 4 from last year based on this years evidence won't alter that much.

In NRL look at the Storm and Manly the GF teams from last year. Both teams have fallen down a peg or two whether by the other teams catching up, hunger is gone or controversial off field matters beseiging the club. Nevertheless there is more of an eveness in that competition, upsets are more likely. Case in point Storm Grand Finalists in 06 and 07 losing to bottom 3 club Souths in that Season or losing to 8th placed Warriors in NRL finals last year. I don't think Hawks or Cats would lose to the Pies or Roos in the finals especially if the former were in 1st place and the latter in 8th. NRL much more even than AFL at the moment. Look at NRL top 4 Souths Gold Coast Brisbane and St George compared to last year Manly Melbourne Cronulla and Brisbane.

[the_boy_jake]

In NRL look at the Storm and Manly the GF teams from last year. Both teams have fallen down a peg or two whether by the other teams catching up, hunger is gone or controversial off field matters beseiging the club. Nevertheless there is more of an eveness in that competition, upsets are more likely. Case in point Storm Grand Finalists in 06 and 07 losing to bottom 3 club Souths in that Season or losing to 8th placed Warriors in NRL finals last year. I don't think Hawks or Cats would lose to the Pies or Roos in the finals especially if the former were in 1st place and the latter in 8th. NRL much more even than AFL at the moment. Look at NRL top 4 Souths Gold Coast Brisbane and St George compared to last year Manly Melbourne Cronulla and Brisbane.

I find it remarkable too mate.

I mean all in all it is meant to be a less equalised comp with no national draft, no PSD for off-conntract players and players allowed to move during the season.

It is either the case that the AFL's approach to equalisation is not working or it is just a very difficult sport to create a level playing field for.

[mightytiges]

Early on in the season clubs are at different preparations and some are definitely ahead of others. It usually settles down by about round 5. So that could be part of the reason for the blow outs. In our case it's just that we have so many players out of form compared to where they ended last year  .

The 'odd' thing this year is the top 4 of last year look like being strong again whereas in the past at least one has fallen away badly. Carlton and perhaps Port look the movers. Swans and North the droppers. If the Pies lose this week they'll be looking shakey too. The gap between the better and mediocre sides looks to have widen.