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Padding up for footy future shock * Jai Bednall
* From: Sunday Mail (SA)
* November 07, 2010 AFTER watching Gold Coast kick three goals in five minutes in the 2025 AFL Grand Final, Adelaide Crows' coach Patrick Dangerfield pulls the trigger.
He calls a time-out, briefs his four best defensive midfielders about the need to shut down the Suns' on-ballers, before substituting the quartet into the game in place of the Crows' attacking midfield group.
The ploy works beautifully, allowing Adelaide to get the match back on an even keel before the attacking midfielders - all clad in protective clothing, including helmets and chest protectors - are reintroduced to kick the Crows to a winning score.
This scenario might seem a little far-fetched but it's exactly how sports scientist and AFL rules guru Kevin Norton sees our national game developing over the next 10-20 years.
Norton is the AFL's go-to-guy when they want to gauge the impact a rule change will have on player safety, the speed of the game and injuries.
He provided the modelling for the new interchange rule which will come in next season and has spent years monitoring the game - including six seasons in the Crows' coaches box.
This week the Sunday Mail asked Professor Norton to gaze into his crystal ball and predict the future of the AFL.
Here's what he came up with.
Expanded interchangePROF Norton expects interchange benches to extend to up to 10 players in the next 20 years.
As illustrated in the scenario above, coaches could have two midfield groups which predominantly play with each other - increasing their familiarity with their teammates and, in turn, improving performance.
They could be offensive or defensive groups, used at particular moments in the game, or simply players who complement each other better.
"I think the use of substitutes will likely grow," Norton said.
"It's possible this may involve groups or specialist players, for example midfield groups who might rotate off the bench as a group and specialist kicking forwards or defensive kick-in specialists who would have more specific roles within the game."
An extended bench would require a change from the present set-up in which inexperienced players learn the game in state competitions before being promoted to the AFL.
But Prof Norton doesn't believe a lack of match practice will become an issue.
The training they do these days is so intense, it will be enough for most players to keep in shape," he said.
"Even if they only average about 20 minutes a game, it's going to be enough. The bulk of their development will be done in training."
So similar to professional sports leagues in the US, first, second and third-year players will only be given short stints on the field - often when games have already been decided - until they are ready for greater responsibility.
This school of thought is backed up by recent research Prof Norton has completed which shows a widening gap between the AFL and the national under-18 championships in terms of speed of play and the distance travelled by players.
"You're not going to see players like Bryce Gibbs stepping straight into the AFL and playing from day one as often any more," he said.
"The gap is getting bigger and bigger so the transition period is going to be longer."
Mid-quarter time-outsGIVING coaches the ability to stall the momentum of an opponent and address their players as a group during a quarter could increase interest in the game, Prof Norton says.
It would also give TV producers more control over when they squeeze commercials into a game.
"(I can see) more control in the game stoppages by media who will have more say in the number and timing of stoppages for TV breaks in a similar way (as) we see in the ... NFL," Prof Norton said.
"I think we'll see the time after a goal is kicked continue to extend. It's already gone from 35 seconds to 55 seconds over the past decade. That could get bumped up to a minute, a minute and a half.
"There's also the possibility of time-outs being introduced, which could be really good for getting the crowd involved.
"That's one aspect of the new interchange rule for next season that I don't think people have really considered. At the moment, players come on and off all the time and no one really pays attention to it.
"But with the new substitute rule, the crowd will really notice when they see the sub getting ready to come on because they'll understand a big decision has been made (by the coach). It would be the same with time-outs; they would bring the crowd into the game."
Protective clothingMANY players would sneer at the idea of wearing helmets, thigh guards and chest protectors on to a football field, but Prof Norton believes the threat of litigation will eventually force the AFL's hand.
"This has been talked about for a long time. The driver for this will be player welfare," he said.
"We've recently seen a lot of publicity surrounding the consequences of repetitive concussions and head knocks in the NFL and as we continue to learn more about it, I think the push for protective clothing will increase.
"It will get to the point where you either do something about it or you get sued."
Concussions, cracked ribs, corked thighs and broken collarbones could all be reduced by protective clothing, similar to that modelled by Glenelg full forward Todd Grima.
But Prof Norton said they would need to be specifically designed to accommodate the large range of movement involved in Australian football.
"I think with the type of movement in the AFL you couldn't wear an NFL-style helmet," he said.
"That would be too uncomfortable. We're already seeing more players wear thigh guards - particularly ruckmen."
Reduced starting line-upsCONGESTION around stoppages reached record levels this season. One way of quickly addressing the problem, in Prof Norton's view, would be to reduce the number of players on the field from each side from 18 to 16.
"For many people having 18 players is sacrosanct, we've always called it the first 18," he said.
"So if it happens I think it will be one of the last changes that's made.
"But I think it will eventually happen.
"One of the key drivers of the new interchange rule for next season was to attempt to reduce the congestion.
"Player density went to the highest levels ever this year, which created a lot of secondary stoppages and at times really ugly, sloppy footy.
"Taking numbers down a bit would help to avoid this.
"It might also be a matter of time before backward kicking anywhere in the defensive half might be called as play on, as it is in the pre-season games."
At first look, Prof Norton's suggestions might appear radical.
But given the way the game has changed in the past 20 years, who is to say that they won't happen?
"These are just some possibilities - it is important to recognise they are all hypothetical of course but fuel for thought," he said.
PROTECTION: Glenelg forward Todd Grima models protective gear likely to become common in AFL. Picture: Dylan Coker. http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/padding-up-for-footy-future-shock/story-e6frecjc-1225948850441
