Tigers have six weeks to get act togetherShaw Shot - Robert Shaw
Inside Football
Wednesday, March 14 2012For Richmond, and several other contenders, the opening six rounds are crucial.FIXTURE watching is a favourite pastime for supporters and members and, I can assure you, the commercial wing of footy clubs.
Attendances, sponsorship and corporate entertainment is big business.
A "favourable" draw can set up a club, on and off the field.
A disastrous start affects the bottom line, momentum, supporter confidence and without doubt leads to media scrutiny on top players, injuries and of course the coach. As we have seen, this has a snowballing effect.
Damien Hardwick is the man for Richmond. Of this I have no doubt. I am obviously not privy to the discussions between Gary March, Brendon Gale and Hardwick but it would be derelict on Richmond's part not to sign its leader soon.
The Tigers have a history of changing coaches, "eating their own alive" and things turning nasty mid season.
In 2012, their first six rounds are Carlton, Collingwood, Melbourne – all at the MCG, but negated by the fact that their opponents play very well there.
Following up are Geelong away, West Coast at Etihad and Port Adelaide away.
I think the Tiger faithful would be satisfied with a three-three start and sitting on the edge of the eight. This is not an unreasonable prediction.
With games to follow against Sydney Swans, Essendon, Hawthorn, St Kilda and Fremantle, it may well have to be the bottom line.
That's a tough road to the half way mark bye for the third youngest team in the comp.
I say sign Hardwick before Round 6 and even if the show doesn't go to plan the expected scenario of a Michael Malthouse return to Tigerland will be put to bed.
Leaving the door open for that certain speculation would be unfair for all concerned at the developing Tigers.
If the Tigers are the organised, measured and strong club off the field they want to be, they will not allow "Tigers of old" shakiness to reappear.
They must be right on the mark here.
This is one of many scenarios that will arise around about Round 6.
Most clubs out of the eight in 2011 will improve. That is obvious even at this early stage.
Also if you start behind the eight-ball with injuries (read Melbourne and Collingwood) there may be a flow-on effect in the early rounds.
Any underdone team going into the first six rounds is in for a hell of a battle.
Playing catch-up with form, condition and ladder position after Round 6 is very, very tough.
One of the reasons that clubs have had huge pre-seasons is so that they are ready to start. History shows that you better have your act together by Round 6.
Why Round 6 and not rounds 5 or 8? Well, no particular reason, it just seems to work that way.
History tells us that apart form 2009 when Hawthorn, Port and Sydney pushed Adelaide, Essendon and Brisbane out of the eight after Round 6, the most changes after this point have been two.
In 2006, 2007 and 2008 there was only one change to the ladder after Round 6.
This means that 90 per cent of the ladder is decided by the end of Round 6.
In 2011, 2010, 2006, 2005 and 2004 only two teams swapped places.
A lot of football will be played after Round 6 but history is a great teacher.
Look at the scenarios over the past decade considering that many teams spent the second half of the year "list managing" – AKA tanking.
It led to a distracting second half of the year as clubs sought draft picks instead of wins.
Amazingly each year we say the competition is getting more even. Maybe "even" is not the word. There is too big a gap between top and bottom. It is certainly very competitive on any particular day.
So at the end of the day if you are not in the top eight at the end of Round 6 you have only a 20 per cent chance of making it.
It highlights the absolute necessity to be injury free and in form.
Any team that can pick up a four out of six start has to find only eight wins out of the remaining 16 games to grab a finals spot.
I was prepared to say that I thought Brisbane Lions would make a good push this year at 10-11 wins. I based that confidence on the fact that Daniel Merrett and Jonathon Brown had undertaken great pre-seasons.
In two weeks Merrett has done another hamstring and Brown a facial injury that could see him out indefinitely. Take out the full back and the centre half forward, plus the loss of Mitch Clark and it changes the scenario.
Brisbane faces Melbourne (a), Carlton (h) Fremantle (a), Gold Coast (h), Geelong (h) and Essendon (a). With Brown and Merrett fit and firing I would give them three wins.
Now I'm not sure. Melbourne in Round 1 at MCG is a pivotal game even at such an early stage.
It will help that Melbourne has a long injury list and will be under enormous pressure to start with a win. Melbourne's ability to handle pressure has not been its trademark. This is a very significant game for both clubs.
The Demons follow up with West Coast (a), Richmond (MCG), Bulldogs (MCG), Saints (MCG) and Cats (a). Four wins is bottom line for me.
High expectations must be matched by winning the winnable. They have four good shots at it.
The other team for which the first six rounds is crucial is North Melbourne.
Can the Shinboners sneak in?
Just the odd win against top teams would have seen them make finals in the past two years.
North wants Essendon's spot in the eight, and plays it in Round 1. Given North's draw a win is unconditional.
The AFL wants a protracted comp that goes to the wire for all clubs. But you can't dispute history.
The ladder will be all but set by Round 6. Strap in, it's going to be on!
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