All change for September
Charles Happell
Written on Tuesday, 27 March 2012 11:14
It is a matter of historical fact that since the AFL introduced its first 'final eight' in 1994, never has the same group of teams qualified for September action in consecutive years. Inevitably, and as surely as cricket's summer follows footy's winter, there is change at the top of the ladder when each finals series comes around.
A glance at the records over the past decade reveals that eac season an average of three teams feature in the finals who, the previous year, were also-rans. Some years, it's just two new teams who force their way in, other it's four - a full 50% of the final eight. Never has it been just one.
Last year, Western Bulldogs dropped from fourth place, and Fremantle sixth, down into the murky depths of the ladder. The slumps cost both teams' coaches their jobs. West Coast and Essendon took their place, in fourth and eighth position respectively.
So anyone thinking of picking their 2012 finalists for a competition, or even a wager, bear that in mind: don't choose the same eight teams that played off in 2011, because you'll get it WRONG.
It was that historical reference which 12 months ago prompted Tim Lane, BPL pundit and sometime-sage, to nominate his 2011 final eight without the Western Bulldogs or Geelong. (He picked Essendon and North Melbourne as the teams to take their place).
Many thought Lane had taken leave of his senses, but his reasoning and methodology were perfectly sound - it's just that he got one of those teams badly wrong, and the other one spot-on. Before you all start sniggering about the Geelong tip, how many of you picked the Bulldogs to miss the finals? No, not many - didn't think so.
Which leads us to this year: which two, three or four teams are going to change?
Every pundit from every two-bit media outlet seems convinced five teams are certainties for September action: Geelong, Carlton, West Coast, Collingwood and Hawthorn.There's a fair bit of smart money around for Fremantle as well, now that Ross Lyon has brought his patented boa constrictor game plan to the port city.
What of the rest: well, in a season as even as this, you've got to look at the draw - the one great variable at the start of each season. That is where some teams cop the raw prawn and the rough end of the pineapple all at once.
The truth is when you try to squeeze 18 teams into 23 rounds, something has to give. Some teams will cop Collingwood, Geelong and Hawthorn twice, while others - I'm looking at you, Adelaide and North Melbourne - get the footy equivalent of a ride in one of those sedan chairs with servants waving palm fronds and peeling grapes for you.
The Crows and Roos get to play Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney twice each. Which is a massive advantage. The Crows, of course, get to play Port twice each season as well - to keep those Showdown Roman numerals ticking over - which means, not to put too fine a point on it, that the Crows should be 6-0 before they even start the season.
That's a broad generalisation, and one that could well come back to bite me on the arse, but if the Crows have made any improvement, they should win all those games.
And the Kangas should win their five encounters against those three strugglers. And we're assuming here that Port will improve this year but not enough to worry the better teams.
Conversely, Essendon, the Western Bulldogs, Richmond and Fremantle only get to play the AFL new boys - GWS and Gold Coast - once each. So you could argue - and I will - that Adelaide and North Melbourne effectively get a two-game headstart on those other four, mid-ranking finals aspirants.
For all that, I like the Tigers' pre-season form and the way that Deledio, Martin and Cotchin are ready to blossom into one of the league's elite midfields. I also like the recruitment of Maric in the ruck and think Newman and Houli down back and Vickery and Riewoldt up front form the basis of a decent side. And I also think they might signal their intentions - is that low rumble a roar I can hear from Punt Rd? - in their opening match on Thursday against Carlton.
So, for mine, and heeding the historical lessons of the past 19 seasons, I'm plumping for Adelaide, Richmond and North to jump into the eight (thereby keeping up the annual average of three 'new' teams in the finals each year) while St Kilda, Essendon and Sydney might be the three who have to sit out this September dance.
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