ROUND 8 - RICHMOND vs COLLINGWOOD - M.C.G. (Away)
SUMMARY:
On the back of a 85 point humiliation of the Blues last weekend, the rampaging Richmond will be out to make it three wins on the trot against a undermanned and struggling Collingwood side at the M.C.G. this Sunday. The confidence of the Tigers is at an all time high given the attractive and deadly style of footy they have displayed the past two weeks. This match is a golden opportunity to go to 6-2 provided complancey doesn't set in. As was the case last week our intensity, skills and teamwork still needs to be kept up to avoid any chance of an upset. With Stafford rolling ankle young Adam Pattison who was our 4th pick (No. 16) in last year's November draft will make his debut after some very good performances for Coburg in the VFL.
While the Tigers are flying and chock full of cofidence, the last placed Magpies couldn't be more poles apart after copping the mother of all hidings in Perth last weekend to Fremantle by 112 points. Collingwood's list is average at best but injuries to the likes of Buckley, Rocca, Fraser and Richards on top of a number of experienced players terribly out of form has seen the Pies with only a single victory (a comeback win over Carlton) to their name after seven rounds. Collingwood have made five changes with Prestigiacomo, Ben Johnson, Swan, debutant Egan and rookie ruckman Fanning coming in for injured trio Fraser, Cole and Woewodin while Jason Cloke and Iacobucci have been omitted. Only the youngest Cloke will play against the Tigers.
PAST ENCOUNTERS:
Overall: 81-108-1
In the 00's: 5-4
At the M.C.G.: 28-26
Last Time:
Round 18, 31.07.04. Away at the M.C.G.
Richmond 3.5 8.6 10.10 14.14-98
Coll'wood 5.2 8.5 14.8 15.13-103
Multiple Goalkickers: Richmond - Zantuck 4, Richardson 2, Rodan 2, Houlihan 2; Collingwood - Davis 2, Holland 2, King 2, Lonie 2.
Attendance:[/b] 39,933
KEY STATS AND MATCH-UPS:
DEFENCE: Through the dominance of our midfield and the good form of key defenders Gaspar, Hall and Kellaway over the past two weeks, Richmond's defensive record has improved. The Tigers are now ranked tenth in the AFL conceding on average 95 points per game. This week they face a Collingwood attack ranked 13th in the league who have struggled this season averaging only 83 points a week (a whole 23 points less than Richmond's attack ranked fourth). The Magpies structure relies heavily on both Tarrant (17 goals) and Rocca forming the FF/CHF pairing. When both are out on the field the Pies are threathening up forward. However when one is absent in particular Rocca as will be the case for the rest of 2005 their attack breaks down as neither Fraser (out injured this week) nor one of the Cloke brothers has adequately been able to step into the role of a presenting key forward. In fact the only other avenue to goal for the Magpies has been Caracella (11 goals). This has left Tarrant as the only tall target allowing opposition sides to effectively take him out of the game by employing a spare man in defence in front of him to pick off passes.
Given their lack of talls the Magpies may try going small up forward similar to what we did against Port Adelaide with Tarrant roaming around half-forward. Whether they go for a small or traditional forward structure we should have their measure provided of course our midfield continues to apply sufficient pressure upfield. In terms of match-ups Gas will take take Tarrant, Hall to mind Travis Cloke, Kellaway on Caracella and Newman on Didak (although Didak has also been used in the midfield of late).
MIDFIELD: This year has seen a reversal in fortunes for the respective midfields of both Collingwood and Richmond. For the Pies what was once a quick and hard-running midfield that lead them to back-to-back grand finals less than two years ago has dramatically declined to a sluggish one as age and lack of new talent coming through due to stop-gap "reject" Spud-like recruiting of flankers (Morrison, Caracella, Williams and Woewodin) has hit. Injuries such as to Buckley have only further exposed the Magpies lack of depth. The Magpies are still getting their hands on the footy - Lucuria (average 26 possessions), Morrison (21), R.Shaw (21), B.Johnson (21), Lockyer (18), Holland (17), Burns (17) and Clement of a HBF (17) atest to that. They actually had slightly more clearances against Freo despite getting thumped by over 100 points. However many of these possessions are short uncontested chip kicks that build up the stats but don't go anywhere. This explains why the Pies are 16th in the competition in contested marks. The Tiges are number one.
One the other hand, the Tigers have been strengthed in the midfield by ballwinners such as Cogs, Tuck, Hyde and Deledio joining Johnson, Bowden, Brown and Cambo in the midfield rotation. As we've seen the past two weeks the Richmond midfield has dominated at the stoppages through excellent teamwork and intensity at the ball. We are ranked second in the AFL at winning contested footy (Pies seventh) and lead the league at clearing the ball at ball-ups (Collingwood is ranked 13th). The Magpie midfielders are mainly outside receivers so we again should have the advantage through Cogs, Tuck and Johnson in getting our hands first on the contested footy and taking it away. In terms of targetting someone the main Pie possession is Licuria. Chaffey may tag him although Licuria himself has played the run with role most of his career so we may just go head and head. The other significant advantage Richmond will have is in the ruck department even will Stafford missing this week. With Richards and now Fraser out injured the Pies we again have to turn to fill-in ruckmen Walker and this week 204cm rookie Fanning. Collingwood is 16th in both total hitouts and centre bounces hitouts (Tigers 7th and 3rd respectively). The Tiger ruckmen in Knobel and Simmonds should be far too strong and experienced in the ruck for their Collingwood opponents.
FORWARDS: This clash is a battle between the 4th best attack in the competition and the 15th worst defence. The Tigers are averaging 106 points per game which as mentioned above was almost 4 goals better than what Collingwood are producing. In fact we have scored a whopping 161 points (approximately 26 goals) more than the Pies in just the first seven rounds. Richmond also are ranked 4th in both entries and marks inside 50; Collingwood are 11th and 12th respectively in each. Add to that Magpie backline is conceding 109 points each week and you can see on form it wll be an uphill battle for Collingwood. The return of Prestigiacomo from injury will boost the Magpie defence and he has done fairly well on Richo on occasions in the past. However this was due more to Richo being one out against 3-4 defenders. Presti won't have that luxury under Wallace's gameplan of Richo freely running around the forward line with Simmonds and possibly Pattison as other tall targets. Wakelin will match onto Simmonds while Maxwell or Clement will have to stand Pattison if Wallace maintains his "triangle". IMO the in-form Clement will be used to mind Browny which still leaves Pettifer and Krakouer as crumbers against the likes of Rhyce Shaw and Ben Johnson (if the latter plays in defence). Interestingly it is the Pie rebounding defenders that are getting plenty of possessions rather than their midfielders. A clear sign of where the footy has mainly been in their matches.
OVERALL: Provided our midfield keeps up it's hunger, intensity and teamwork in the middle and gives the forwards enough quality ball, the Tigers should be far too strong and have too many options and firepower for Collingwood to counter. As X mentioned on the forum the only reason the Pies will win is if we lose than game through complancey and thinking the game is in the bag just by us turning up. We still need to go out and for four quarters do our stuff. If we do that then Richmond should record their sixth win for the season by Sunday night.
THIS WEEK'S TEAMS:
RICHMOND
B: Graham, Gaspar, Newman
HB: Bowden, Kellaway, Tivendale
C: Deledio, K.Johnson, Tambling
HF: Pettifer, Richardson, Campbell
F: Krakouer, Simmonds, Brown
R: Knobel, Coughlan, Tuck
Int: Pattison, Chaffey, Hall, Meyer
In: Pattison
Out: Stafford (inj)
COLLINGWOOD
B: B.Johnson, Prestigiacomo, Wakelin
HB: Morrison, Clement, R.Shaw
C: Rowe, O’Bree, Lockyer
HF: Didak, T.Cloke, Holland
F: Burns, Tarrant, Caracella
R: Walker, Licuria, Davies
Int: Egan, Fanning, Maxwell, Swan
