SUMMARY:
Richmond returns back to Melbourne this Sunday for the return clash with archrival and bottom placed Carlton. The match is being played at the Dome in another slap in the face to tradition. Hopefully for the last time with the new M.C.G. deal agreeing to more games at the M.C.G. and better games. The Tigers are desperate for a win after two straight losses and slipping outside the top 8 for the first time since round 2. Given the other sides Richmond is competing with for a finals spot have tough match-ups this weekend a win would more than likely see the Tiges jump back into the top 8. The Blues on the other hand are now playing for pride after virtually cementing their second wooden spoon in 3 years with their defeat to 15th placed Hawthorn last round. It's incredible to think this side won the preseason cup given they haven't scored a victory since and including the 85 point belting we gave them 11 weeks ago. Still complacency is always a danger especially at Tigerland in recent times when we are expected to win and win well. Both sides had added 3 names to their squad of 25. The Tiges have added Hartigan, Tambling and Gaspar. The latter subject to a fitness test today.
PAST ENCOUNTERS:
Overall: 81-112-2
In the 00's: 3-5
At the Dome: 0-1
Last Time:
Round 7, 07.05.05. Home at the M.C.G..
Richmond 7.4 13.8 19.11 23.13-151
Carlton 0.2 1.3 5.3 10.6-66
Multiple Goalkickers: Richmond - Krakouer 5, Richardson 4, Brown 4, Campbell 2, Pettifer 2; Carlton - Lappin 5.
Attendance: 52,234
KEY STATS AND MATCH-UPS:
DEFENCE: Despite eleven straight defeats and average score of 87 points, the Blues have still been able to put 15 and 17 goal totals on the scoreboard in recent weeks (albeit against the Hawks and Freo at the 'G) so they are still capable of kicking a decent score through Fevola (41 goals), Waite (25), Betts (15) and Lappin (20) if allowed far too much supply. Lappin of course provided the only form of resistance last time kicking 5 majors when pushed forward while Fevola was absent through suspension. So without Kellaway and possibly Gas again this week we will have to turn again to the likes of Hall, Graham and Thursfield to do the job on the Blues main forwards. Razor will most likely take Fevola with the young impressive Thursty on Waite. Graham you would think will be used to block the space in front of Fevola if not used to stand Fevola or Waite. If he is then you would think he'll take Waite while Thursty moves onto Lappin who got the better of Newman last time. Hartigan if he gets included in the final 22 can also do a midsize defensive role so we have the Carlton forward line covered despite our absentees. This then allows Newman and Bowden freedom enough to to sett up attacks on the rebound which they both are ranked top 10 in the league at. Krakouer should take Betts again after totally destoying him at both ends of the ground last time keeping Betts to just 4 possessions and no goals while snagging 5 himself.
MIDFIELD: One the main deficiencies at Carlton stems from the fact they have an inability to win contested footy apart from Kouta who is in the top 10 in the AFL at clearances and 4th in the competition at winning loose ball. As we saw last time, if you can deprive the Blues' receivers, which most of their midfielders are, of being feed uncontested footy through intense pressure at the ball and contest, you make ineffective the possessions of their main ballwinners Stevens (2nd in the AFL in uncontested footy won) and Camporale (top 10 in inside 50s) since their second tier of mostly "rejects" such as Scotland from other clubs don't have the class to hurt you with their poor disposal and decision making while Fisher and Carrozzo are still young. This explains the Blues ranking last in total disposals in the comp and 15th in marks. Compared to the Tiges they obtain 40 less possessions and 20 less marks per match. As Wallace has said numerous times the best sides are simply the ones with the most disposals in particular kicks.
Where we have the upper hand is we have two of the best hard ballwinners in the league. In fact Tuck is ranked number one in the AFL while Cogs is third. Tuck interestingly enough is also in the top 10 for disposals, kicks, clearances and centre bounce clearances. Add Johnson, Bowden, Hyde, Campbell, Krakouer and Lids to the mix and we should have too much depth of quality in our midfield rotations for the Blues to contain provided of course we are switched on with our attack on the footy unlike the first quarter and a bit last week where Port simply forced the footy out into space and easily ran the ball forward as though we were witches hats. In terms of match-ups IMO we will hardly tag. Chaffey can run with Camporeale as he's not to fond of close attention and gets easily frustrated. Kouta is named at CHF but will move in and out of the midfield so Joel can take Kouta when Kouta's pushed forward while Tuck will most likely go head-to-head in the middle.
FORWARD: The Blues defence is their major weakness as they don't have the height and strong bodies to match it with the League's main key forwards. As a result Pagan has had to move Whitnall (who was out of form anyway up forward despite 23 goals) to CHB. Carlton has conceded on average a whopping 20 goals per match and as we witnessed in round 7 once the ball goes inside their defensive 50 it readily results in a score. The big headache this week for Carlton will be who to match-up on Richo with only Livingston and Prendergast as realistic options even though Richo would be too quick, strong and mobile for either of them. The only way they will be able to contain the big fella is if we give them an easy ride through poor delivery or predictably continually attacking through him. The reason we scored so freely in round 7 was due to us having 11 individual goalkickers with all our forwards contributing as well as midfielders pushing forward. This is something we need to regain from early on in the season not only for Sunday but for five final rounds as we've only passed the ton once in the last 10 weeks. In the first 7 rounds we scored 100 points or more on four occasions. This is where the loss of Brown is showing.
In terms of match-ups I believe it will go something like this: Richo-Livingston, Simmonds/Stafford-Whitnall, Pettifer-Sporn, Hyde-Lappin with the Blues going for McGrath on Krakouer.
OVERALL: The word for this week is respect and more importantly respect for your opponent no matter how poorly they have been travelling. As Geelong found out last week against the Dogs if the respect isn't there you can be left extremely embarrassed and worse still cost you what should have been a win against a weaker opposition. As a Tiger supporter going in as red-hot favourites in always makes you nervous as recent history shows we've typically thrown away games such as these through complacency. Fortunately in round 7 when we were also favourites but took control of the match in the midfield from the first bounce. Although I don't dream of a similar first half this time around given we're missing Browny, Kellaway and possibly Gas, if we again work for each other, pressurise and match or better Carlton's intensity at the footy and opponent with the footy then we should have far too many options around the ground and should record our tenth win for the season comfortably.
THIS WEEK'S TEAMS:
RICHMOND
B: Thursfield, Gaspar, Hall
HB: Johnson, Bowden, Newman
C: Tivendale, Tuck, Deledio
HF: Hyde, Simmonds, Pettifer
F: Krakouer, Richardson, Stafford
R: Knobel, Coughlan, Chaffey
Int (from): Graham, Moore, Hilton, Foley, Campbell, Tambling
Ins: Gaspar, Hartigan, Tambling
Outs: No omissions as yet given it is a Sunday game.
CARLTON
B: Lappin, Livingston, Sporn
HB: Camporeale, Whitnall, McGrath
C: Simpson, Carrazzo, Chambers
HF: Longmuir, Koutoufides, Waite
F: Betts, Fevola, Fisher
R: French, Stevens, Scotland
Int (from): Bentick, Bryan, Houlihan, Morrell, Prendergast, Teague, Walker
