Jonathan Brown believes seven teams are in premiership contention in 2016JONATHAN BROWN
Herald Sun
March 26, 2016 “CAN you survive the pressure?”
It’s the question Leigh Matthews would always ask and it’s maybe the most important factor in the premiership race.
To me there are seven serious contenders — Hawthorn, West Coast, North Melbourne, Geelong, Fremantle, Sydney and Richmond — and the team that truly believes will prevail.
Right now, they’ll all be grappling with varying degrees of doubt.
The Hawks are chasing history — a fourth flag in a row — but it gets harder for them every year. They’ve been up for a long time, and what makes it even harder is when your spine gets weakened and you lose players. They’ll be without Brian Lake, David Hale and Jarryd Roughead (I put him in there because he’s gone for half the year). Liam Shiels (wrist) is a bloody good role player and now they’ve lost Bradley Hill (wrist) and his vital speed.
Hawthorn has been able to overcome adversity better than probably any team in the history of the game, but I’m not sure they’ll be able to do it again.
They’re in the mix, but I’m saying West Coast.
The Eagles have got the most 100 game-plus players in the competition (17) and none of them has played more than 200. You play your best footy between games 100 and 200 and if you’re looking at list demographics, West Coast is in the sweet spot. That’s 17 blokes in the prime of their careers.
The question mark is their belief. Has Grand Final day 2015 damaged them? Not that the margin was horrendous, but decent players had shockers and they looked liked the occasion got the better of them. That’s a mental hurdle they’ve got to get over. Are they scarred from that? I don’t think they are.
Eric Mackenzie coming back is a huge in and Lewis Jetta and Jack Redden add depth to the midfield.
Richmond is the most fragile challenger — as good a chance of missing the eight as finishing top four.
They’ve got arguably the game’s best compliment of stars in Alex Rance, Jack Riewoldt, Brett Deledio, Trent Cotchin and Dustin Martin, but when the big lights are on the Tigers crumble and you can’t succeed in September until all of your stars perform together.
Some of those blokes have the big question hanging over their head: Can I perform when it counts? At the moment, only Riewoldt and Rance would know the answer to that.
I’m not sure how deep they bat either, the Tigers, but I was impressed at times last year. They beat Hawthorn and knocked off Fremantle over there. I’d be referring back to those games and saying to guys like Cotchin: “The way you came out against the Hawks that night and they laughed at you, but you didn’t back down — that’s the way you have to play.”
Michael Voss used to sledge for a reason and it wasn’t to put his opponents down. He sledged to put himself in a combative mode. It can get you in the game, out of your comfort zone and into an aggressive mindset.
Look at the contrast in Richmond’s final against North Melbourne when Ben Jacobs was whacking in to Cotchin and he succumbed.
Belief can come and go, but when you start to win against good sides, suddenly you realise: “Hang on a minute, I survived that. I survived the pressure. We can actually beat these guys.”
Sydney is a funny proposition. The Swans will be asking themselves whether they are sliding. Do the players believe that? Are there doubts among the players? Or are they strong enough to say: “No, Buddy’s back, we had an unlucky run of injuries last year and we can recover this.”
Geelong has still got enough blokes who have been solid premiership players, but the Cats will be hoping like hell that Paddy Dangerfield gives them the big kick along.
For North Melbourne, this is the year it must make it happen, and that’s pressure in itself.
Internally, the big question will be whether Daniel Wells can stand up. If he gets injured, the Kangas lose a lot of hope. They can’t win it without Wells.
They also need to get better at kicking out of stoppages. Their inside mids aren’t as polished as the best sides, but they don’t look like they’re carrying any demons from September.
Fremantle was one bad quarter away from a Grand Final last year. Are then Dockers going in saying: “We know we’re close”? Or are they wondering if their older guys like Matthew Pavlich and Aaron Sandilands can get through another long season.
And do Ross Lyon teams score enough? Ross is a great coach and he’ll be trying to address it, but the numbers don’t lie, and there’s still a lot of pressure on Pav to deliver in September.
I’ve left the out Western Bulldogs.
They’ve got their first seven games at Etihad but they’re the team about which I’ve got my biggest doubts. You can defy age for a while, but if Bob Murphy, Matty Boyd and Dale Morris have any drop-off, which at their age is a real possibility, the Dogs will go backwards.
They’ve lost Stewart Crameri and the other question mark is how they handle expectations. They were the most exciting team last year and I see that as a real danger.
Living in Melbourne for the first time in the build-up to a season has been an eye-opener for me. The northern states don’t have anywhere near the same external pressure. The buzz and the energy around the city is enormous. Everyone is talking about the footy and it’s probably hard for the guys to go to the local milk bar or coffee shop without being caught up in the hype.
It all adds to the pressure cooker and who deals with it best above the shoulders will ultimately salute.
THE SEVEN CONTENDERSHawthorn
West Coast
North Melbourne
Geelong
Fremantle
Sydney
Richmond
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