AFL stats special: Who are the AFL turnover kings?Herald Sun
28 April 2016 4:00pmFIVE rounds into the season, stats gurus Champion Data assess the numbers that are making Swans fans smile and Tigers weep.
The ability to score from, and defend, turnovers is the key to modern football. No team has reached the Grand Final in the past eight seasons after ranking outside the top-four teams for points differential off turnovers.
Hawthorn ranked No. 1 last year with a differential of +574 and West Coast was No. 2 (+394). The year before the Hawks were ranked No. 2, defeating the No. 1 ranked Swans on Grand Final day.
These numbers are one of the main reasons for Sydney, Geelong, and Adelaide’s early success this season. Those teams rank top-three when it comes to outscoring their opposition from turnovers.
On the flip side, it isn’t any great surprise that Richmond and Fremantle rank 16th and 17th respectively.
When it comes to scoring off the back of opposition turnovers, North Melbourne and Adelaide lead the way. The bottom-six sides on the ladder after Round 5 all sit in the bottom-six sides for points generated from opposition turnovers.
The best two defensive sides in the competition — Western Bulldogs and Geelong — rank first and second for preventing points from their turnovers, with all of the top nine sides on the ladder ranking in the top nine sides when it comes to defending turnovers.
PROTECTING THE GOALSThe worst-case scenario for turning the ball over is deep in defence, but anything before halfway is tough to defend. It’s no wonder Ross Lyon keeps referring to defensive half turnovers, with Fremantle conceding the most of any side, though perhaps surprisingly the Swans join them among the three worst offenders.
Sydney has been able to protect its goal, conceding the sixth-fewest points per game from defensive half turnovers. Unlike the Swans, the Dockers simply haven’t been defending these turnovers, coughing up 45 points per game. Compare that to the Bulldogs who give up just 15 points per game, and it’s not hard to see why they sit 0-5 after five rounds.
Since the forward press became the norm in 2010, forward half intercepts (winning the ball off opposition defensive half turnovers) have been steady between 21.1 and 22.1 per team per game through the opening five rounds. This year that number has jumped slightly to 23.3 — the most recorded to start any season. The Swans have been the best in the competition so far in 2016, generating 30.4 forward-half intercepts per game. The Tigers have created the fewest.
Converting these chances to the scoreboard is key and again North Melbourne leads the way. Despite sitting sixth for intercepts created in the forward half, the Kangaroos rank a clear No. 1 for points generated.
GIVEAWAYS AND TAKEAWAYSThe word turnover immediately brings to mind a howler of a kick coming out of defence. But in reality, many turnovers are not the direct fault of the kicking player.
Sending the ball to a contest down the line or inside the forward 50 may have been the best option for the team and losing possession in these situations should not bring unnecessary criticism to those players.
For example, the Swans have given up 76.6 turnovers per game — the most of any side — however just 20.6 of these turnovers have been gifts straight to the opposition, the second-fewest of any side. These turnovers are labelled “giveaways” while those lost in a contest are labelled “takeaways”.
Giveaway turnovers are the ones that can be described as coach killers, going directly to the opposition. Depending on the pressure being applied to the player losing possession, we can further break them down into Forced or Unforced Giveaways.
TURNOVER MERCHANTSWhen looking at individual players, the raw turnover number can also be a little deceiving. The more disposals you have, the more turnovers you’re likely to have.
A better measure is how often you turn the ball over relative to the number of disposals you win. Of the top-100 disposal winners, Levi Greenwood has the worst ratio of any player, committing a turnover every 3.22 disposals. On the positive side Callan Ward has best ratio, turning the ball over every 19.00 disposals.
CLICK LINK TO SEE YOUR CLUB’S TURNOVER STATS AND THE BEST AND WORST PLAYERS IN THE COMP:
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