2017 Crystal Ball: Richmond (footyprophet)

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2017 Crystal Ball: Richmond

By Dem Panopoulos
footyprophet.com
Posted on March 17, 2017

The Tigers finished 13th in 2016, with eight wins and the fourth most points conceded across the season. Given the club had made finals in each of the previous three seasons, this was extremely disappointing and it created a scenario where the coaching staff required a shake-up. The new year has put any off-field issues in the past and the club looked better in this year’s JLT Series, with “taking the game on” a big part of their new game plan.

BEST 22

B: Dylan Grimes, Alex Rance, Kamdyn McIntosh

HB: Corey Ellis, David Astbury, Bachar Houli

C: Brandon Ellis, Dustin Martin, Shaun Grigg

HF: Shane Edwards, Ben Griffiths, Josh Caddy

FF: Sam Lloyd, Jack Riewoldt, Daniel Rioli

R: Toby Nankervis, Dion Prestia, Trent Cotchin

Int: Nick Vlastuin, Anthony Miles, Oleg Markov, Connor Menadue

Emg: Ben Lennon, Reece Conca, Jason Castagna

The opening round team will differ from the above best 22, with Dan Butler and Jason Castagna pushing for a spot in the team and with Connor Menadue not featuring during the preseason. The AFL world is mixed on Richmond once again this year, however there is a fair bit to like about it. Butler and Rioli have shown great pace during the preseason, while the return of Kamdyn McIntosh has given the team more of a presence across half-back.

There is an issue with the key forwards, given Griffiths and Riewoldt are the only AFL-standard ones in the squad. Griffiths is injury-prone, meaning the Tigers really need Todd Elton to be playing in attack in the VFL and playing well. Martin will play more forward, while Lennon’s form in the reserves needs to translate to senior level. It is a well-balanced 22, and there are some good young players ready to break into the best team, should the Tigers need it.

GAME SPLITS

Thursday: 2

Friday: 0

Saturday: 10

Sunday: 8

Monday: 1

The Tigers have two prime-time matches to kick the season off, but, other than the ANZAC Day eve match, they have no other standalone games. While the club is getting nine matches shown on free-to-air television, Richmond’s poor form has it lost in the shuffle.

In terms of the actual fixture, the weighted rule sees the Tigers taking on GWS and St Kilda twice as teams who finished above them. Given the two opponents should be playing finals, it’s a tough one for Richmond. However, the rule also sees the team take on three bottom six teams from 2016, Carlton, Brisbane and Fremantle. Overall, it’s a relatively good fixture, as long as the Tigers continue their preseason trend of taking the game on.

KEY GAMES

Round 1 vs Carlton @ MCG

Richmond has beaten Carlton four times in a row, and should really account for the Blues comfortably. However, with all eyes on this first match of the season, the team never seems to comprehensively beat Carlton, despite a significant gap in talent. The Tigers tend to play well when they get on a roll, making this first match a huge contest. Another indifferent performance could write off Richmond’s season straight away. A dominating showing will give fans some hope.

Round 5 vs Melbourne @ MCG

Put simply, Richmond’s key games are ones where all eyes will be on the team, and dealing with such pressure will indicate how well the team can do this season. A match against Melbourne on ANZAC Day eve seems to be a regular occurrence now, and after a terrible showing in the 2016 contest, Richmond needs to show better form. Melbourne is now expected to push for finals, and is seen as a better team than the Tigers, so an upset here would create a bit of early-season chaos.

Round 10 vs Essendon @ MCG

Dreamtime at the ‘G is always a big event on the football calendar, and these two teams generally do a good job. This match is the highlight of the Indigenous Round, which puts pressure on both teams to perform. A full-strength Essendon team will provide a good challenge to the Tigers, given both will likely finish around the same spot on the ladder at season’s end.

BREAKOUT PLAYER: Toby Nankervis

After a great JLT Community Series for Nankervis, everyone is expecting him to be Richmond’s breakout star. However, Tigers (and Swans) fans knew of this far before the AFL world caught onto it some three weeks ago. In limited opportunities at Sydney, Nankervis was great, proving to be effective up forward and being the best hitout-to-advantage ruckman in the competition. He has shown similar signs during the JLT Series, including a big performance against Brodie Grundy to finish it off.

Importantly, Nankervis is the clear number one ruckman, and will have the position all to himself, given Shaun Hampson is on the long-term injury list. There’s a real possibility that Nankervis breaks into the top five ruckmen in the competition at the end of this season, such is his immediate potential.


FANTASY GOLD: Dustin Martin

Forget any contract dramas Martin is going through at the moment, he is Richmond’s best player and a fantasy gun. He has continued to improve over his career, finishing with a 107 average in 2016, including an average of 114.7 after Richmond’s bye. The 25-year-old is only going to get better from here on, and the prospect of playing more forward shouldn’t be something that scares fantasy coaches off. While it’s likely he will spend more time in attack with Caddy and Prestia in the team, his unparalleled one-on-one strength alone should see him kick 25 goals, on top of a 27+ disposal average. Martin will be a fantastic selection and a tremendous point of difference.

LADDER PREDICTION – 10th

There’s something about this squad that is likeable. The defence is solid, and cleaner ball users and good interceptors have now been introduced in the back half. The midfield is great, and the inclusions of Caddy and Prestia could see Richmond’s Brownlow Medallist, Trent Cotchin, return to some of his 2012 form. There is something about having a reliable, mobile ruckman as part of the team that straightens up and improves Richmond’s chances.

The concerns in the forward line are real, and injuries could mean the Tigers are found out. Goals will come from those medium forwards, and resting midfielders, but the big question is whether or not there is enough scoring power to push for finals. If the players can develop as expected this season, the draw could see the Tigers push for a finals spot. Based on previous seasons, however, it’s a big assumption.

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