Richmond and North Melbourne are the kings for blowing decent leadsLuke Michael
The Age
24 June 2017If you think more AFL teams are snatching defeat from the jaws of victory by blowing big leads this season, you're right and recent stats back you up. And they make painful reading for Richmond and North Melbourne fans.
Champion Data statistics show there has been a significant increase in AFL sides losing after being at least 30 points up this year.
From 2012 to 2016 a lead of 30 points or more was blown an average of seven times a season.
Last year it only happened once, but this season has already seen seven matches where a team has led by 30 points or more and went on to lose.
Three of these losses were suffered by Richmond, the most recent of which occurred against Sydney in round 13, when they blew a 36-point lead.
The Tigers, along with North Melbourne, have been the worst offenders when it comes to giving up leads in recent years, with both sides losing eight times after being at least five goals up since 2012.
The next worst team is Essendon with four losses, while Collingwood and St Kilda are the only teams to have not lost after hitting a 30 point lead during this period.
So why do some teams struggle more than others when it comes to protecting big leads?
After the Tigers' loss to Sydney, former Richmond coach Danny Frawley put the blame on the side's "mental disintegration".
"I watched the game closely on the weekend and they should have won by seven or eight goals," Frawley told SEN.
"You could tell in the third quarter, when Sydney packed some real heat onto them that they started to get a bit of mental fragility. Whether that is coaching or playing, that is something they have to work out."
Richmond coach Damien Hardwick put it down partly to the evenness of the competition, which saw just two games separate fourth and 15th on the ladder heading into round 14.
"I think that [close matches] is what our side has to get used to. We're very competitive. We'll keep the games close," Hardwick said after the loss to the Swans.
"We're not going to win games by 10 goals. We're not going to lose games, hopefully, by 10 goals either. It is always going to be an arm wrestle."
North Melbourne's propensity to blow big leads has seen them lose three matches after being well ahead this season – leading Geelong by 32 points in round two and the Western Bulldogs and Fremantle by 29 points in rounds four and five respectively.
The Roos also almost blew a 45-point lead against Carlton in round 10, before holding on to win by 17 points.
After the match, coach Brad Scott said heartbreaking losses of this nature were part of the game and could happen to any club.
"Teams are going to lose from winning positions. That's going to happen all the time," Scott said.
"You can play 50 to 70 games of footy and not experience those three tight losses that we had earlier this year.
"That doesn't mean that we're not vulnerable to teams coming over the top of us, because every team's vulnerable."
These results showcase the power of momentum in games, which is becoming increasingly difficult to stop this season, as Geelong coach Chris Scott attested to after the Cats withstood a Bulldogs comeback in round nine.
"I [understand] there's going to be criticism of teams when momentum's against them and they allow opposition teams to score, but it seems to be the way the competition is going more and more," he said.
"The laws of the game committee have made it very, very difficult to close the game down.
"I watched grand finals from 10 or 11 years ago … they're so slow. If you're four goals up with eight minutes to go you cannot lose.
"And now it's so hard to draw stoppages, so hard to just possess the ball in your back half. The game's changed."
Chris Scott said this trend was "shocking for coaches", but it has certainly made games more exciting for fans, with teams seemingly able to mount a comeback no matter the deficit.
In a tight season, it seems vital that teams are able to capitalise on momentum, while restricting opposition scoring when things swing the other way.
The teams which can best harness this momentum, will go a long way to achieving ultimate success this September.
Stats current to end of round 13*
Teams that have led by at least 30 points before losing
2017 (before the start of round 14)
Richmond 3
Hawthorn 1
Gold Coast Suns 1
Brisbane Lions 1
North Melbourne 1
2012-2017 (including 2017 up to round 14)
North Melbourne 8
Richmond 8
Essendon 4
Geelong Cats 3
Hawthorn 2
Adelaide Crows 2
Western Bulldogs 2
Fremantle 2
Sydney Swans 2
Gold Coast Suns 2
West Coast Eagles 2
Brisbane Lions 1
Carlton 1
GWS Giants 1
Port Adelaide 1
Melbourne 1
Collingwood 0
St Kilda 0
Breakdown by year
2012 5
2013 15
2014 7
2015 7
2016 1
2017 7
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/afl-2017-stats-show-more-teams-are-blowing-30point-leads-20170623-gwx7jx.html
