Wiseby Profiles.

[Captain__Blood]

Anyone have any?

I'd be much intersted in reading any of the 2004/2003 (or further back) if anyone has a link. Please post them here.

[Captain__Blood]

2005

i. Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls
Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls (East Perth)

188/75 bottom-age right foot (has other foot if necessary) outsidish mid / flanker

*STYLE LIKE: Rob Murphy

*MY RANKING (not meant to reflect appropriate draft pick to use): 5

*PROBABILITY OF AFL CAREER: Definite. Ready year 2.

- Within an AFL team list, could prove capable of SUSTAINING a ranking of 5-10.

*HURT FACTORS (Offensive/Defensive/Negative): M-H / M / L

*TRADEMARK:

- Casually pluck the ball out of the air or cleanly off the turf, then an even more effortless (no, make that "cocky") sell-the-dummy, then skim the turf for 30m then accurate fluent kick to a well spotted target.

*SUMMARY ASSESSMENT, RECOMMENDATION:

- Oakley-Nicholls is not a top 5 pick, or even top 10, in a typical year's draft. This year is as light on for obvious top 10 quality as 2000 but at least 2000 had Riewoldt, Didak and Kos who looked to be the clear top 3. I can't see Oakley-Nicholls going top 5 even this year but I rank him at 5 on the basis that:-

1. He has indicated an X-factor upside comparable with Ryder, Varcoe, etc but has the advantage that we have seen O-N's form this year offer greater concrete evidence. Any concerns re any disappointment with O-N not having been more consistent (eg not having played many genuine 4-quarter games) can also be levelled at those others with supposed X-factor upside who follow him in my rankings.

2. He has the tricks to turn a game in one quarter. He is genuinely classy. Clean, silky with a bit of magic.

3. No one after him in my rankings would appear to represent a better all-round package of attributes. Jarrad is a great height for a wing/flank, among other possibilities down the track. He also appears to have a reach advantage (unconfirmed). Reliable kick with high hurt factor. Lightning quick. Can take a huge grab. Excellent evasion. Happy to get his own ball. "Never" flustered. Plays in a manner that suggests he will thrive on AFL centre stage once he has settled in.

4. Only about 3 of the next 15 players in my rankings are similarly reliable all round kicks and probably none of those 3 are quite as good.

5. Despite his speed and silkiness, he wins much more than his share of his own ball - in one-in-one physical tussle contests or inside traffic etc. He is no downhill-skier or stranger to hardball gets or to displays of determination/desperation.

- From rural WA but, on-field, always looks self-assured and never seems flustered. One of those players, regardless of age, who just "moves" like an AFL player of class. I first liked him from the '04 U16 Champs. Back then, he was trying to manage problems with his left knee but he really looked "AFL".

If you had pick 5 and your next pick was beyond about pick 10, I think O-N is worth pick 5 thaer than taking the risk of him slipping through, even though that is shorter than his market value. I'm very confident of his AFL future.

*DISPOSAL:
(see above)

- U18 Champs stats were not representative of his kicking's usual accuracy or hurt factor. I would describe him as an "almost routinely excellent" kick - accuracy, hurt, power. Even on the run (as he often is). Economical kicking style.

- Can kick a big goal but is not in the "reliable around goals" class.

- His handballing is good but, in relative terms, possibly not quite as reliable as his kicking.

- Mix of kicks to feeds varies a lot, game by game.

*DECISION-MAKING, SMARTS:
(see above)

- Generally a good decision-maker. Generally displays poise and looks for options, even on the run.

- Good vision but not always good awareness.

- Uses his body well.

- His average stats are quite healthy and he has had some big games. However it bothers me, just a little, that he doesn't ROUTINELY get more of the pill. He gets his share when at the play but I suspect he needs coaching in where and when to run in order to be in the action more often. Providing a kid is coachable (can listen, understand and implement) I never get overly concerned about kids who tend to be in the wrong places around the ground at 17-18yo. Oakley-Nicholls seems to read the play well enough, especially when he finds himself fairly handy to it. Most kids should be able to improve their positioning if they get the appropriate "match scenario simulation and decision-making dry runs" at their AFL club.

- Importantly, he needs to demand the ball much more often and with more purpose. With his leg-speed he should much more often be running past to offer himself as a potential 80-90m option. Ditto for being more verbally demanding when in good position to have the ball delivered to him.

- Outstanding evasion. Routinely effective, excellent sidestep on the run.

*HANDS:
(see above)

- Routinely clean - ground or waist, on the run or static, under pressure or not.

*OVERHEAD MARKING:

- Very capable and reliable overhead, regardless of pressure. Usually clean hands, usually good judgement, holds his ground. Wins much more than his share of 50/50 contests. I saw him drop a sitter in one WAFL game but that's the only terrible result I can recall.

- He can take the big grab over the back of the pack but he arguably takes more from in front or mid-pack.

*ATHLETICISM:
(see above)

- Terrific athletic package.

- Lightning quick. He would be as quick as anyone in this draft. That's how he looks on-field. His DC times reflect that. 5m time among the top 3% ever and the further they go (over a sprint distance) the more elite his times (top 1% of all times over 20m).

- Offensive agility is excellent. Recovery agility disappointing at times.

- I'm still not sure what to make of Jarrad's leap. There are times when he takes some big grabs yet at other times he seems to struggle for leap. I just haven't been able to identify a pattern. Perhaps in certain body on body situations he waits a bit long to jump and finds the opponent(s) has already taken his vertical pathway, or something like that (?), or the cause may even just be injury at the time.

- Very skinny but looks to have a frame that will fill out OK. His game is such that it is not vital to add more than about 7kg. (Would be desirable though).

- Endurance query at the moment. Died in the bum late in various games this year and somewhat below average beep would either support this (no cause for long-term concern) or suggest he doesn't push himself out fully at this stage..

*INTENSITY, ETHIC:
(see above)

- Intensity is generally good except that he often seems unaccountable to his own opponent.. That bothers me in itself but O-N is no less accountable than many/most other similar-role contenders for 1st or 2nd (or even 3rd) round picks this year.

- For his "flashy" type, his "at the scene" intensity is surprisingly quite consistently good - Attack on ball, attack on man, ratio of 50/50 contests won, genuine desperation (including smothers etc).

- Tackling effectiveness needs improvement.

*CONSISTENCY:

- Not that consistent statistically. He had at least one 30+ disposals game this year and a couple high 20s but he is usually around the low-mid teens.

- I would say his effort level is pretty consistent. He is though, one of those players who, when hot, can be very hot. He can have a quiet quarter but then have (say) 15 minutes where he is on-fire.

*AFL VERSATILITY:
(see above)

- Outside mid ("wing") suits ideally but there are other roles at AFL where he could inflict serious damage.

- If he can adopt a more accountable mentality, he could be dynamite running off/through half-back. (That is the role I would like ti see him strat out in).

- He also shows some talent inside traffic so perhaps an onball role down the track (but he is a long way off that, endurance-wise).

- There is probably no reason why he couldn't handle AFL HFF or FP. However, I prefer him in a role in which he can see the play unfold essentially in his flight path and exploit his superior pace, especially direct, so that his main value is as a regularly 80-90m play-breaker.

*CSI (COMPARATIVE SCOPE for IMPROVEMENT):

- Probably normal.

*QUERY:

- Endurance.

*SOME STATS:

- '05 WAFL Colts:
Avg approx 17disposals (incl 3 marks) in his 15 Colts games. Also played 2 Seniors games.

- Stats summary '05 U18 Champs:
Averaged 7 disposals and 2.3 marks in his 3 games. (Best TD 12).
Kicks per 20 disp: 15.
Kicks long vs short: 3-9 (3 long per 10 kicks).
Ineffective kicks: 4/17 (2.4 per 10 kicks), incl 2 clangers (1.2 per 10 kicks).
Ineffective handballs: 3/5 (6.0 per 10 handballs), incl 1 clangers (2.0 per 10 handballs).
Ineffective disposals: 7/22 (6.4 per 20 disp), incl 3 clangers (2.7 per 20 disp).
HandBall Receives: 2/22 (2 per 20 disp).
Hardball gets: 2/22 (2 per 20 disp).
S.P. clearances: 2/22 (2 per 20 disp), incl 0 BU (0 per 20 disp), incl 2 CBC (2 per 20 disp).
Tackles: 4 (Avg 1.3 per game).
Marks: 7 (6 per 20 disp), incl 2 contested (2.9 per 10 marks).

*OTHER STUFF:

- Added to '05 U18 trial squad. DOB orig listed as 2/9/88 but should be 9/2/88

[Captain__Blood]

ii. Cleve Hughes
 Cleve Hughes (Norwood)

192/84 top-age right foot (dual-sided) CHF/FF.

*STYLE LIKE: early Tredrea

*MY RANKING (not meant to reflect appropriate draft pick to use): 13

*PROBABILITY OF AFL CAREER: Likely. Ready year 2.

- Within an AFL team list, could prove capable of SUSTAINING a ranking of 5-15.

*HURT FACTORS (Offensive/Defensive/Negative): MH / LM / L

*TRADEMARK:

- Strong high mark on a very well-timed, purposeful lead up the corridor. Then long straight shot for goal.

*SUMMARY ASSESSMENT, RECOMMENDATION:

- Fast-lead marking key forward. Very top-age but intensity, an historic issue with him, is very much on the up ... and his potency with it.

Not the most consistent type around (is a bit of a confidence player) but on his day (and that's now often) he

Is agile
Is clean at all levell
Times his leads extremely well and straightens his team up
Shows good judgement overhead
Has nice kicking style and is usually an accurate kick.
Generally makes the right decisions.

Improvement trend line is very encouraging, including in intensity. When his confidence is up, he leads with purpose and up the corridor whenever possible.

- Even though he is 11 months older than Dowler, I have him a bit ahead of Dowler in my rankings:-

1. Although Dowler is 3cm taller, I am confident (unconfirmed) he has a few cm reach disadvantage (compared to the average player of his height) that at least cancels out the height difference.

2. Dowler can use his non-preferred foot to some extent in an emergency. Hughes doesn't often need to but is genuinely dual-sided.

3. Hughes is better below-the-knee ability IMHO and, although others would disagree, has better agility, especially recovery agility and ability to quickly make multiple leads for the same play

4. I suspect that, although a natural leading forward, he may have greater potential versatility, even though Dowler has played both ends.

5. Both are slim but Hughes is proven against men.

(Dowler's injury did not factor into my ranking of Dowler). I just think Hughes has more tricks.

- I could imagine Hughes might be the top name on the Christmas card list of some coaches or some team-mates and that his intensity and efforts until recently have sometimes looked dodgy, even seemingly sulky or a bit spoilt brattish. And he is very top-age. However he has recently given every indication on-field that things have just clicked with him. I thought he was useful some earlier games this year, good in the U18 Champs, and very good and sensational (respectively) in 2 SANFL Reserves games later in the year.

I think he looks as good a leading forward prospect as we've seen for some time. Because he is slim build and has to prove he can maintain his current intensity and ethic, I can't call him "definite" AFL long -termer but I do think it likely. I would take him around my ranking number of 13 and even a few picks earlier, depending on need.

*DISPOSAL:

- Very accurate set kick. Generally accurate non-set kick. Good at kicking a weighted pass to a lead.

- Terrific set kick for goal, regardless of angle. Also good on the run, even outside 40m

- Consistently handy depth. Comfortable range seems to be about 55m.

- Excellent kicking style for set kicks.

- Genuinely dual-sided.

- Good by hand - accurate, good power, quick hands, good hurt factor.

*DECISION-MAKING, SMARTS:

- Generally good decision-maker. (Makes the occasion mistake eg trying to bump instead of laying a tackle, but he is usually solid). Good vision. Often thinks quickly.

- Regularly displays good poise under pressure.

- As a leading forward, regularly tries to lead up the corridor. This not only straightens his team up but means that a high percentage of Hughes' set shots for goal are from a comfortable angle. Excellent judgement of when, where and how to lead, Great timing. His leads demand to be honoured.

- I'd like to see him feed off a bit more often.

*HANDS:

- Very clean hands - all levels.

- Extra clean off the carpet on the run, even under medium-great pressure.

*OVERHEAD MARKING:

- Routinely one-grab overhead, even under great pressure.

- Excellent judgement.

- Usually attacks a contested mark situation.

- Can take a big grab from behind but, pleasingly, prefers to play from the front (not only, but especially, from a lead)

- Holds his ground.

*ATHLETICISM:

- Big leap. (He is also handy as 3rd man up at stop plays).

- Very good pace overall - better than his handy DC times. Very good acceleration and speed on a lead, even against a smaller quick opponent like Josh Eddy.

- Very good agility. Excellent recovery agility for his size.

- Very good reflexes.

- Nice height but only 84kg. Is athletic enough that he doesn't need to become a 100+kg build. I can see no reason why he'll not manage to hit the mid-high 90s but it will take time.

*INTENSITY, ETHIC:

- Seems to be a bit of a confidence player but has significantly lifted his work-rate and hardness at the ball throughout the past year to the extent that it is now (as in latter part of this season) usually at least OK, sometimes very commendable. I

Due to the inconsistency of intensity/ethic prior to recently, its a bit hard to say he is now "good"/"very good" etc. What I can say is that, although I can't recall a smother or a huge number of chases, he has shown recently (even if not routinely), that he is prepared to show desperation, attack the ground ball, get the hard ball, attack the spoil, put in 2nd efforts, etc. He still has to work a bit on his attack on the man but he is usually an effective tackler.

*CONSISTENCY:

- Improving. I had concerns a while back but I ma fairly comfortable now.

*AFL VERSATILITY:

- Options will depend on how he goes with bulking up. Assuming no problems there (not that its really a given):-

- Natural FF or CHF.

- Could certainly play FP, or even HFF on the right opponent.

- If he gets his strength right and, more importantly, his intensity and ethic, he would have the skill set to play CHB, FB, 3rd tall defender, or perhaps even HBF on the right opponent. That list is a long way off being realistic at this stage but all are potential possibilities. You would waste his goal-kicking value and his ability on a lead though.

Bottom line is that I see him as a very appealing forward.

*CSI (COMPARATIVE SCOPE for IMPROVEMENT):

- No special factors.

*QUERY:

- Intensity / maintenance.

*SOME STATS:

- Stats summary '05 U18 Champs:
Averaged 11 disposals and 7.3 marks in his 3 games. (Best TD 13).
Kicks per 20 disp: 18.
Kicks long vs short: 15-8 (7 long per 10 kicks).
Ineffective kicks: 5/28 (1.8 per 10 kicks), incl 1 clangers (0.4 per 10 kicks).
Ineffective handballs: 0/4 (0.0 per 10 handballs), incl 0 clangers (0.0 per 10 handballs).
Ineffective disposals: 5/32 (3.1 per 20 disp), incl 1 clangers (0.6 per 20 disp).
HandBall Receives: 3/32 (2 per 20 disp).
Hardball gets: 1/32 (1 per 20 disp).
S.P. clearances: 0/32 (0 per 20 disp), incl 0 BU (0 per 20 disp), incl 0 CBC (0 per 20 disp).
Tackles: 2 (Avg 0.7 per game).
Marks: 22 (14 per 20 disp), incl 4 contested (1.8 per 10 marks).

*OTHER STUFF:

- All Aust TY.
- Promising SANFL Res form '05.

[Captain__Blood]

iii. Travis Casserley
 Travis Casserley (Swan Districts)

187/76 mid-age right foot (has other foot if necessary) HBF/wing.

*STYLE LIKE: Jordan McMahon

*MY RANKING (not meant to reflect appropriate draft pick to use): 22

*PROBABILITY OF AFL CAREER: Possible. Ready year 3.

- Within an AFL team list, could prove capable of SUSTAINING a ranking of 5-15.

*HURT FACTORS (Offensive/Defensive/Negative): M / L-M / L-M

*TRADEMARK:

- Clean scoop under little/no pressure on the run, then dash over 30m at impressive speed, then a lovely looking direct kick for depth, possibly without first having looked for best option.
- Hard running (either direction) - perhaps chasing down an opponent at impressive closing speed but finishing with a very non-physical excuse for a tackle.
- Screamer.

*SUMMARY ASSESSMENT, RECOMMENDATION:

- Travis is a confidence player (a la Ryan Murphy at the same age). There are 2 Travis Casserleys.

One is serious AFL material - chases, takes big clean grabs, attacks the ball, is clean, direct and purposeful. The other is at the opposite extreme, to the point of being insipid.

He can be one player or the other, week by week, and he can be both players within the same game. eg In a Reserves match against Claremont late '05, most of his "efforts" had been insipid most of the first 3 quarters. His team were 11 points up at 3/4 time in a very low-scoring game. During the last quarter, Claremont looked like overpowering his team, the game was in the balance, and his team were virtually crying out for someone else to stamp themselves on the game. Casserley did, attacking marking contests he was spectating at earlier in the game, attacking other balls and chasing opponents he was uncommitted towards earlier. Lifted himself and the team over line and, in the end, it was fitting that it was Casserley who set up the winning goal with a purposeful attacking get, dash and long kick to position right on the siren. Had had about 7 disposals until Q4 and picked up another 7, mainly quality, in Q4. He carried that last quarter form into the next week, earning Senior selection the week after. The week after that, Casserley came on just before 1/4 time and played a terrific Seniors game and looked every inch a serious AFL prospect, routinely running hard both ways with a frenetic work-rate that had you virtually applauding (a la Ryan Jackson in a TAC final this year).

That's the problem when you draft Travis. You are getting two players for the price of one. One will be capable of winning and/or turning AFL matches for you. The other will make you cringe at times even if at VFL reserves level or similar.

With some kids, realising their projected upside is mainly a function of things like bulking up, improving their kicking, etc. With Casserley, I suspect it is mainly about radically changing his mindset. I'm a great believer in "conditioning of the mind" (which for some players is more important than conditioning their bodies) and the success that is possible (!) from it. However, for every Rhyce Shaw who manage to significantly improve their mindset, there are many more who don't. In particular, U18 kids with on-field intensity issues, especially those who play an outside style, very often continue to disappoint at AFL level, at least for an unreasonably long time (eg Pettifer, Fiora, Cupido, Tim Walsh, Sam Power, Jay Shultz, Llane Spaanderman, etc). (I'm not talking about off-field ethic or character test. Any list of names like the above would include some who have good character and a smaller number who really comprehend and practice good off-field ethic. Tim Walsh, e.g., would pass with flying colours any test for niceness, decency and good intent). I am actually more confident about Casserley "getting his act together" than I ever was with any of the above. It's certainly not "bet on it" confidence however. What gives me hope with Casserley is that his intensity is sometimes very good and occasionally excellent (more-so with attack on the contested ball than effective, physical tackling).

Because of that doubt, however, and the not-unrelated big difference between Travis at his best and at his worst, I ranked him lower than his upside might suggest but earlier than his current performances warrant. On draft day, I would not use a pick earlier than about 25 (at the very best) on him (although I suspect he might go earlier). Again that doesn't do his upside justice but it also flatters the risk you would be taking.

The "Which Travis?" is not a function of the standard. This year he displayed both Casserleys at Colts level and both also at Senior level and in between.

Casserley has a team mate, Dennis Armfield, of whom I am a fan. If Casserley had Armfield's unshakeable self-confidence and routineness of intensity, Casserley would be a guaranteed long-term AFL player. But he doesn't, so it's hard predict his future, one way or the other, with any degree of confidence. To be blunt, I would rather Armfield in the trenches with me than Casserley, even though Casserley is the deadlier rifler. It's not that Casserley would not be virtually as capable, in the right mood, as Armfield. Not at all. It's just that I could count on Armfield being in the right frame of mind, whereas I couldn't with Casserley.

I want to make it clear that I am not labelling Casserley as lacking in courage. I wouldn't know. To be honest, there have indeed been times when I have thought that way during a game, only to later see him string together a number of courageous efforts. What I am saying is that his intensity at both man and ball is not consistent - not consistently insipid, not consistently purposeful, but a mix, with a strong leaning towards the former at this stage. At the very least, I suspect lack of confidence hits him at times to the extent that he seems so worried/confused about the risk of mucking up that he gets gripped with virtual inertia. A bit like the hard-hitting batsman who, after a couple of ducks in a row, hopes the batsmen in at the moment secure the game so he won't have to bat. At certain times, everyone has fear. Courage is not really about being fearless per se but about having the ability to shove your fears aside in a given situation. Most people (some more than others) have times of self-doubt. Self-doubt too is a form of fear. As with courage, mental toughness is about having the ability to shove such fears aside in a given situation. With Travis, I do suspect he can be inclined to play in fear at times. Which of the two fear types it is, is probably irrelevant. If he can (and/or can be helped to) conquer it, he will definitely be a player, such is his ability and work-rate at his best. If not, he won't. What I am convinced about is that whenever Travis appears half-hearted in his efforts, it is not about laziness or lack of good intention.

Having laboured that point, the rest of this profile will mainly focus on the impressive Travis who I love watching, rather than the sometimes insipid Travis:-

- Very athletic dasher who is an excellent kick, good overhead, usually runs very hard, takes them on and can be exciting, albeit with a fair bit to learn. That said, he is probably more a running, leaping athlete who can also kick, mark and collect cleanly, than someone born with natural footy smarts like Voss, Hird etc

At his best and with his confidence up, he is like an energetic kelpie pup who wants to chase everything and run and jump all over the place. Beau Muston is similar in that regard. Regardless of U18 form and/or consistency, what you are buying with both boys is
1. upside
2. running workrate
3. AFL versatility
4. a decent dose of rawness but with very coachable raw material
5. instinct rather than genuine understanding of on-field strategies.

- Casserley played Colts in '04 but usually couldn't find much of the pill - did some nice things but very much only in cameo. Has improved out of sight this year. Didn't get much chance to show his true form in the U18 Champs and his Champs should be ignored IMHO. Showed a fair bit in early Colts games (in a side that copped a couple of huge hidings) and showed quite a lot in subsequent Reserves and Seniors games. Maintained his spot in the Seniors semi-final on the back of a R23 Seniors game where he had 20 possessions (17 disposals), despite being off almost all Q1, and seemingly played on a welter of differerent types of opponent including the Hams twins and Travis Gaspar, and was named among the best. If that was the only Casserley game that someone saw, they would come away convinced this kid is genuine AFL material. If, instead, they saw some of his other games, including one Reserves game where he was credited with a healthy number of disposals, they might, depending on which game they saw, come away thinking this is a kid much too lacking in footy smarts and physical intensity to have any chance of AFL.

- When on his game mentally, what has impressed me most this year is his running work rate.

- A comparison with Xavier Ellis is interesting:-

1. Both similar height, both skinny (Casserley is 4kg heavier but is 9 months older), and both carry themselves in similar posture and mannerisms.

2. Ellis 9 months younger.

3. Both are usually much more outside than inside. Eliis more routinely outside than Casserley. Both play predominantly as Predators rather than First Dibs.

4. Casserley is a confidence player and that confidence can sometimes be fragile. Ellis seems routinely self-confident and self-assured. The result is that Ellis, allowing for his outsidedness, "never" plays a bad game at the levels (TAC, U16/U18 Champs, school) that he has played to date, and is consistent at these levels. Once you've seen Xavier play a number of times, you can confidently predict, before an Ellis game starts, roughly how many disposals he will have, what the mix will be in both getting and delivery, how he will play (in terms of style, intensity and level of performance), and maybe even what opportunities his opponent will get. You could virtually give someone an accurate description of an Ellis performance without even having been at the game. With Casserley, you'd need to have been there ... and watched the entire game

5. Both are probably best suited to "wing" at this stage but both have played mainly HBF this year. Casserley's best AFL role might still be as a running HBF.

6. Under any sort of pressure, both tend to be "reach with the arms (whether trying to get the pill or when tackling) instead of "commit the body" types.

7. Both very good kicks in all regards. Casserley has the more traditional kicking action and an action which arguably leaves him less susceptible at AFL level to being knocked off his kick. Casserley doesn't often use non-preferred foot but is comfortable using it when necessary. Ellis is essentially one-sided.

8. Ellis has the better vision under pressure and is much the better decision-maker and has a better ability to read the play and know where to run to. He is also more routinely discerning in looking for targets for his kicks and he mixes his kicking distances more.

9. Both good overhead, especially given their current skinniness. Casserley can take the more spectacular grab and often does, but Ellis is the more routinely reliable overhead at this stage.

10. Both similar speed but Casserley is a dasher who regularly uses his speed to the max, likes to carry the ball, and runs hard both ways. Ellis rarely does any of that. Other than footy smarts and self-confidence, the hard running is the key difference between Ellis and Casserley and the main advantage Casserley has over Ellis. Casserley regularly (albeit not routinely) runs very hard both ways. Ellis rarely seems to push himself. Their draft camp results bear this out. Ellis did 13.50 beep (about avg for his size) and a very poor 11.85 (among the bottom 15% of all time) for the 3Km. These are the 2 "events" that are the most testing and gruelling. Casserley did 15.20 (among the top 3% of all time) and 10.53 (among the top 14% of all time). I concede that Ellis hasn't had the physical conditioning of many of his peers but those results are telling re the way Casserley plays (when on his game) compared to Ellis.

11. Ellis is largely unaccountable. I think Casserley usually means to be but is not good at achieving it. He too often gets too separated from his opponent - sometimes because his opponent sneaks out the back unnoticed, sometimes because he is too slow mentally in reacting to a lead, and sometimes because he has chosen an inappropriate time to run forward or has positioned himself poorly. (See below).

12. Casserley has already proven himself against men (most notably at WAFL Seniors level).

13. Ellis was a very good U18 player last year and had a good U16s Champs that year. I've seen nothing to make me believe he has improved much this year. Casserley IMHO was a very ordinary U18 player last year but improved greatly this year and kept improving at an impressive rate throughout this season. I though his best games were against the men, including at Seniors level. Much is made of Ellis being bottom age, which is fair enough, so Casserley has a season start on Ellis. It's just that there are signs that Casserley is a late developer footy-wise and his improvement trend-line over the past year is much steeper than Ellis' (albeit starting from a much lower base).

[Captain__Blood]

iii. Travis Casserley cont.

Very much against popular thinking, and despite my concerns about Casserley and despite Ellis being a very much smarter footballer, I rank Casserley marginally ahead of Ellis primarily because he has the potential to change the course of a game, something I don't see in Ellis, despite his skills. Casserley, on his days (which, in giving him this ranking, I am trusting will be more frequent) is a ball carrier who is prepared to run hard hard both ways and be more attacking than Ellis. I don't find much difference in the appeal of Ellis and Casserley. I concede my later than expected ranking of Ellis and comparatively early ranking of Casserley may both come back to bite me on the bum but I've called it the way I see it.

- By all reports, Travis is a good kid. I would love him to develop a steely belief in himself and in his ability to routinely hurt the opposition. With his range of talents, he owes it to himself to not let himself down. If he addresses that, he won't have to worry about letting the team down. That's the issue in a nutshell though.

*DISPOSAL:

- Very good kick. Occasional turnover but he is usually very reliable. Was entrusted with kickouts for Swan Districts Seniors, despite being a Seniors novice.

- Very good kicking style.

- Excellent depth and power in his kicks. Range is at least 60m and he can kick virtually that distance, at least from a set kick, almost whenever he likes.

- Very reliable by hand. Quick hands. Good power in his feeds. Good hurt factor.

*DECISION-MAKING, SMARTS:

- Not his strong suit. Sometimes zones off, leaving his man in a dangerous spot if a rebound occurs. Occasionally runs straight past the opponent who has the ball in space because he sees another opponent in space 50m away. (In such situations the result is often that the first guy has time to kick under no pressure and the 2nd has time to mark under no pressure, with Casserley caught in no-man's land).

- In general field play when not on the run, he does usually look for options and his vision at times is very good.

- He sometimes has a Jason Cloke-like willingness to run hard to mind the shop for a team mate whose opponent (within reassonable range of Casserley, or a bit further) presents an immediate danger. Casserley also runs hard, far and often to present an option. He has such a great motor that, at levels lower than AFL, he maintains the energy to do so. However he needs to ration that energy a bit to run out AFL games. He also needs to recognise when it is wise to stay home and mind his own shop instead of risking leaving his own customer alone near the open register. I'm not concerned long term. He'll learn to be more judicious with experience. I'd rather have to temper a kid who works "too hard" both ways than to try to add intensity to a kid who has poor ethic. I certainly don't want to discourage him from running to cover a team mate's free opponent or running on to present an option. I commend him for it. I just want to encourage him to be more judicious in deciding when to go and when to stay.

In minding an opponent near traffic, he usually indicates he has every intention of being accountable but he sometimes concentrates so much on the play that a slippery opponent (eg the Hams brothers for Sth Freo who are clones of Milne) can sneak away alone into dangerous space. Again I am confident he will adapt, with experience, to the tricks of these clever types.

He is also often too slow of mind/anticipation/concentration(?) to react quickly enough to his opponent's lead or to pre-empt it. The result is that you often see his opponent taking a chest mark on the lead with Casserley closing in hard but after the horse has bolted.

Fundamentally, he needs to learn to better recognise potential "time bomb" zones in relation to various play scenarios, opposition goals/"sweet spots" and opponents, and to learn to position himself according to appropriate risk assessment.

- In general play he almost always kicks for depth, even to a contest and even from a set kick, ignoring short options. When doing kickouts, he doesn't mind passing short but you can count on the greater majority of his kickouts being kicks for depth out wide and to the right hand side - even if the target is a 2 on 3. He must mix things up more. You can't be that predictable at AFL level. (Easily fixable so I'm not really concerned long-term).

- Does show a sharp "get out of trouble under pressure" evasion at times but it's a bit hard to form a definitive opinion re his potential to routinely display good evasive ability. While he is a dasher who is more than happy to back his pace to break away from an opponent, he doesn't make a habit of taking on an opponent who is in his flight path, although he does so occasionally (and usually successfully).

*HANDS:

- Fumbles occasionally but is usually clean all levels, including sometimes exceptionally clean off the carpet on the run.

*OVERHEAD MARKING:

- Very capable overhead on his day. Started the season in fine overhead form but (and I may be wrong here) seemed to lose confidence in going for his marks by late season. He was carrying an arm injury late season (for which he has now had successful minor post-season surgery) which may account.

- Took one of the best screamers I saw all year - running in hard and flying onto the top of a big pack, sitting on the pack's shoulders and taking the mark cleanly with arms vertically outstretched full length.

- Occasionally has hard hands or struggles body-on-body but not too often. Due to lack of strength, is a much better mark at this stage when he can run at it.

*ATHLETICISM:

- Very quick on the run - quicker than his DC 3.01sec suggests. Terrific closing speed in a chase.

- Acceleration off the mark is sometimes good and sometimes not flash at all.

- Very good running technique and he maintains his form when running under pressure. eg Some players with quite good speed tend to lose form (eg over-stride, drop their head, rotate their torso) in a desperate chase, and that costs them speed.

- Usually good recovery agility.

- Potentially excellent endurance and he often exploits it well, sometimes too well (see above). Great motor. Will be able to run some AFL opponents ragged. Terrific beep and excellent 3km results at '05 DC.

- Lacks strength, especially body-on-body and can sometimes struggle to keep his feet in such situations. Currently pretty skinny and there might be some query on his ability to bulk up a helluva lot but, if he can, current strength limitations will presumably be addressed in doing so.

*INTENSITY, ETHIC:

- With one notable exception, he usually displays a good ethic - very good by season end. Usually pushes himself hard (although sometimes not hard enough). Often runs hard (both ways). Will chase down one opponent then immediately run on to chase down the next and the next.

- The notable exception is physical intensity .... at both man and contested ball. Often very poor (and I'm allowing for him needing to bulk up). It's one thing to chase hard and make the opponent feel he is under pressure (which Casserley often but not always does). However you need to make your tackles stick and make the opponent feel under great pressure. Too many of Casserley's tackles are not just ineffective but insipid. eg In a Reserves game R20 an opponent was bent over the stationary ball trying to pick it up. Casserley in turn was hovering literally over the top of him and with hand on the guy's jumper. No other players were nearby. The opponent, not even a fast player, then simply picked up the ball and sailed off into space without even needing to brush Casserley off, leaving Casserley temporarily standing in his original pose as if sweating over the invisible man. That's not a strength issue but a commitment one. I'm not calling Casserley soft in a "lack of courage" sense (that example had zilch to do with courage as Casserley was never under the slightest threat physically) - just lacking in determination to be physical.

I must make one point here in Casserley's favour. He stood up in the last quarter in at least 3 games this year when the chips were down and the game up for grabs. Stood up, not just in the sense of getting the pill, running and kicking it, but in also noticeably lifting his intensity and attack on the contested ball and, to some extent at least, attack on the man. In each of those games at that stage of the game, he did a cluster of special things with a very high offensive hurt factor that should have lifted his team. Players who turn it on when the chips are down win big points from me.

- He does also get hardball gets - just not enough of them. He is no slouch inside stop-play traffic - again, doesn't go there often enough.

- Plays for the team (as the previous comment testifies). Tries to be accountable to any loose opponent, whether it be his own or a team mate's. Accountability success with respect to his own opponent is mixed bag however. (see above).

- Usually good 2nd (sometimes even 3rd and 4th) efforts.

- Tackles are too often ineffective and easily brushed off. Currently lacks strength but that component should be "easily fixed" with AFL conditioning. Primarily though, he currently lacks physicality intent in his tackles and determination to render the opponent impotent. Needs to put more body and less outstretched arm into his tackles. That's harder to fix because it is more an issue of mindset than technique.

*CONSISTENCY:

- Not very consistent game by game or within a game at this stage.

*AFL VERSATILITY:

- Reads like a natural "wing" and I agree with that. However, with confidence and strength, he has the makings of a ball-carrying HBF and someone who can play on a non KP marking type or a quickish small.

*CSI (COMPARATIVE SCOPE for IMPROVEMENT):

No special factors.

*QUERY:

- Regularityof intensity
- Footy smarts
- Effective tackling (especially the physicality expected at AFL level).
- Mental toughness
- Ability to bulk up much(?)

*SOME STATS:

- Stats summary '05 U18 Champs:
5 disposals and 3.0 marks in his 1 game.

*OTHER STUFF:

- Colts -> Res -> Sen (debut in SF) in '05

[Captain__Blood]

Nathan Foley

Subject: Profile: Nathan Foley

Nathan Foley (Geelong Falcons)

178/74 mid-age right foot (dual-sided) inside midfielder/flanker.

Very quick ball-magnet with great leap, ethic.

I have him 35 in my rankings but I think more highly of him than that indicates. When I first played around with putting the players in some order based purely on my liking for them (without referring to my notes) I actually had him earlier. However, the need to accommodate talls earlier in the list (9 moved ahead) and certain other types for whom there is more demand (eg taller midfielders and some more robust types), and a preference to elevate kids who are very young or who have had injury affected seasons, along with a couple of queries I have in my notes about Foley, saw him keep slip down the order.

Were we in 1993 instead of 2003, I would have him earlier than 35. However this era of scrumby places greater emphasis on big-bodied types and that's where Foley is likely to be at a disadvantage.

May well go even later than I have him. Might be ready year 2, subject to weight.

*STYLE LIKE: Crawford

*TRADEMARK:

- Burst from traffic then accurate feed or accurate uppish kick
- Quick accurate clever feed or tap-on from traffic to a team mate running past.

*SUMMARY ASSESSMENT, RECOMMENDATION:

Is not big but is a natural footballer.

A coach's delight - on and off field.

I compared his style to Crawford's but even though Crawford is 4cm shorter and currently in the same weight bracket as the barely 18yo Foley, I recall Crawford even at Foley's age being more robust and better balanced inside traffic.

Moves well, poise under pressure, balance.

Excellent pace and ethic, uses well, smart.

Quick thinker & good user under pressure.

With more weight/strength I still think he could be more than handy AFL. Main query with his size and lack of strength is what role?

*DISPOSAL, DECISION-MAKING, SMARTS:

- Natural footballer. Highly creative. Reads ball well, reads play well. Especially consistent at roving the pack at stop plays. Has serious smarts, vision. Ball magnet midfielder who often receives but does also sit under fall of ball at stop plays and does get plenty of hard-ball. Good traffic management. Except for a lack of strength, is very good in close. Also roves the pack well.

- Excellent user by hand and accurate by foot.

- Terrific hands. Very clever and reliable at quick, accurate clever feed (including look-away) or tap-on / tap-over from traffic to a team mate running past.

- Is seriously dual-sided.
- Kicks are generally accurate but my problem with them is hang-time - they tend to float and put his team mate under pressure in doing so. Were it not for this and his physical strength, I would have him earlier. Having said that, he can regularly do a worm-burner pin-point pass over about 30m - even on his non-preferred foot.
- Good depth.
- Dangerous around goal but not super reliable. Adept at reflex snaps from in and around the goal-square. Snaps well but can also score from outside 50.

- Occasionally has a momentary lapse of concentration that can see an opponent slip him when he is man on the mark or watching elsewhere.

*HANDS:

- Clean handler, clean feeder.

*OVERHEAD MARKING:

- He plays small but is reliable when he goes for it 1-1. Great leap, sure hands.

*ATHLETICISM, INTENSITY, ETHIC, CONSISTENCY:

- Often plays art a "comfortable" pace around the ground below top gear but he is has lightning speed when he wants to use it, both off the mark and over ground. Terrific closing speed in a chase and ability to find another gear when being chased.

- Huge leap. I can't emphasis this enough. One of the factors against Foley is that he is only 178cm. He also has a 4cm reach disadvantage compared to the average player of his height. However, his leap more than compensates. I have noted this on many occasions throughout the year and his DC/SS result confirms it (beat95% of the 168 attendees). Sometimes a player has better or worse results in a DC test than they show in a game. Not Foley. The best single example probably came from the VC vs SA '03 U18 Champs game where he jumped high naturally, without any real run-up, to spoil an overhead marking attempt by the 201cm Dubieniecki, who was in good position in front of Foley.

- Great ethic, intensity. Is desperate. Throws himself under packs, chases, blocks, other 1%ers. Covers heap of ground. Runs and runs. Prolific tackler. (3rd in TAC comp).

- Lacks strength. Lays a heap of tackles, often with quite good technique, but quite a few don't stick. He currently lacks the strength to impede the opponent often enough. May improve in time with strength but is a problem against a strong opponent at the moment. Similarly, lack of strength sees him brought down and/or stripped too often.

- Has good evasion skills and should display them more often. Tends to mainly rely on his great pace at this stage.

- Courageous.

*SCI (SCOPE FOR CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT):

- Nothing special.

*AFL VERSATILITY:

- 178cm is an awkward height but especially for a slim guy. With extra strength he could play midfield in time. Meantime I see AFL potential as HFF, FP or even BP. Has a great combination of speed, acceleration, courage, disposal, smarts, leap.

*QUERY:

- Strength.
- Hang-time of kicks.

*SOME STATS:

- TAC: Averaged 30 disposals in 17 TAC games (3rd in comp). 3.7 marks, 6.6 tackles (3rd in comp), total 12 goals-11. 67% of disposals are kicks. 12% of his possessions are marks. At least 30 disposals in 10 games, including a 43. 2nd quietest game was 21D. Ast least 8 tackles in 8 games, including a 10 and an 11.
- Mid-way trend .. % change in disposals was 7%. % change in marks was -50%. % change in tackles was 15%.

- Stats summary '03 U18 Champs:
Averaged 15 disposals and 2.0 marks in 3 U18 Rep games.
Kicks vs feeds: approc ratio 2:1 favouring kicks (same as his TAC pattern).
Tackles: 5
S.P. clearances: 7 incl 2 cbc
Gets own ball?: 16/45 TD were HR. 6 HBG
Kicks long vs short: even
Kicking accuracy: 9/29 were ineff/clang incl 2 clang
Handball accuracy: 3/16 were ineff/clang incl 1 clang
Marking: 6 (incl 0 contested)

*OTHER STUFF:
- TAC Team Of Year TY: ROV.
- Won '03 club B&F.

[mightytiges]

Saw this on BF - Colin Wiseby's 2005 draft predictions of who he thinks will "make it"

----------------------------------------------------

Predictions for "U18" 2005 AFL draftees

I judge them to have "made AFL" when they have played a decent number of good AFL games over a sustained period (i.e. not merely getting games when their club's list is decimated by injuries, or due to just their size or pace presenting them with premature opportunities).

The categories generally reflect players about whom I feel most confident in making predictions.

This was another flaky draft, very much like 2000 but without a single standout (2000 had Riewoldt, Koschitzke and Didak as clear top 3 picks). In terms of "sure fire" outstanding CVs for very early picks, this was an unlucky year for a club to have picks anywhere in the first 6 or so. Nevertheless I suspect as many '05 draftees will sustain AFL careers as in most previous years, although I suspect as many will come from after about pick 20 as before. I think there are a few serious bargains.
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Will be TOP SHELF (in order of how good I think they might become):

HURN, Shannon (13) [WCE] "Big stage" player who gives the impression he has been biding time. Was my #1 for the 2005 draft for almost 2 years but it's now time to unwrap the pressy. O.P. (and corresponding ability to get and keep himself in top condition) a real concern so may need to be handled delicately for some time (at less than optimum conditioning, as has been the case for some years). We made need to be patient in this respect as he probably won't hit the ground running but he is a definite talent. Balanced, smart, knows how to find the pill and regularly pin-points 50-60m passes.

MUSTON, Beau (22) [Haw] A more prolific Jarred Brennan with big "X" and hurt factors. Very much in the mould of a young Kouta. Hard-running acrobat, albeit more athlete than natural footballer and, as such, my prediction for him assumes complete recovery from his knee injury (else all bets are off).

CLARK, Mitchell (9) [Bri] Enigmatic talent who has almost everything ability-wise when in the right frame of mind. Definite AFL position if (!) he wants to apply. I spent more time analysing him than any other player and I still feel uncomfortable re the risk of him being high maintenance. Still has a lot to learn about footy and application but, when switched on, his skills are breath-taking. Upside versus risk but, like Hurn (and Franklin last year), I think he is a "big stage" player who has been in need of the challenge of AFL.

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Will be AT LEAST GOOD (I didn't bother too much about the order but its very(!) roughly in the order of their upside with some allowance for my level of confidence in them achieving it) A couple are extremely late picks but I call it as I see it.

2. OAKLEY-NICHOLLS, Jarrad ( [Ric] Silky tallish speedster. More Porsche than 4WD but has X-factor. Big upside.

16. HUGHES, Cleve (24) [Ric] Fast-lead marking forward. Reliable kick for goal. Very top-age but intensity and ethic are on the up and his potency with it

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UP AGAINST IT (from National & Preseason drafts, in draft order) - I'd like to see every committed draftee succeed but these would surprise me: (Almost every draftee gets AFL games these days. I'm talking about sustained AFL careers)

WHITE, Matthew (P 5) [Ric] Predator hard-running compulsive quick dasher. Ankle problems throughout '05. Hard worker on and off field. Fierce tackler. Will break the play open and carry the ball but is not clean or quick-thinking enough and disposal / hurt factor a worry.

Full summary: http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=230066

He forgot Casserly.

[one-eyed]

Wiseby has also included his predictions from 2001-2004 so you can judge if he was right or wrong and his draftees info reliable.

Here's his 2004 draft predictions. The Tigers are highlighted in yellow. Mentions Lids, Blingers, Patto, Polo and Limbach. No Meyer or McGuane.

Predictions for “U18” 2004 AFL draftees.

I judge them to have “made AFL” if they have become a regular member of their team in at least two seasons (i.e. not merely occasional games when their club's list is decimated by injuries or due to just their size or pace). Players I did not see enough of (eg Ablett, Rusling) are excluded.

The categories reflect players about whom I feel most confident in making predictions.

This was a flaky draft, not unlike 2000 but with a greater number of identified quality players at the top end. I think there were a number of serious bargains and wouldn't be surprised if more good AFL players emerge from picks 42-55 than from picks 20-41.

Popular opinion would dictate that the following predictions should include
WILLIAMS, Tom (6) [WBD]. Tom is a virtually untested newcomer whose '04 was disrupted by injury. Promises to be special. May be. Went much earlier than the sort of drafting risk I'd be prepared to take. I have excluded Tom from my lists as anyone's assessment of him is based on only about 20 possessions. He has done literally a handful of very special things and is a conscientious, quick learner but I need to see more than a tiny number of cameo flashes before I could feel confident enough to categorise him.
---------------------------------

Will be TOP SHELF i.e. household names (in order or my level of confidence):

I rate Griffen and Junior Smith as complete packages, although Deledio and Tambling are almost complete. There was no “complete package” gimme last year. At this stage at least, Griffen's kicking is more reliable than Deledio or Tambling but I rate my top 4 in virtually the same bracket. I believe all are capable of reaching genuinely top-bracket status in the AFL.

GRIFFEN, Ryan (3) [WBD] Complete footballer. My top pick - in a heartbeat.
DELEDIO, Brett (1) [Ric] Dynamic 6/2" onballer / utility. Great range of attributes. Exciting, versatile.
SMITH, Jesse.W (42 F/S) [Kan] Neville Stibbard should feel embarrassed getting such quality with pick 42. Completely fearless, athletic, smart, dashing, versatile.
TAMBLING, Richard (4) [Ric] Vanilla-size excitement machine.
THOMSON, Adam (11) [Por] Generally under-rated 6' creative, super-efficient inside maestro.
ROUGHEAD, Jarryd (2) [Haw] Versatile improving marking KPP with good intensity.
FRANKLIN, Lance (5) [Haw] Enigmatic X-factor. May be hard work but worth it. Game-breaker.
WOOD, Cameron (18) [Bri] Bottom-age smart ruck. How did he get through to pick 18?
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Will be AT LEAST GOOD (in very roughly the order of my level of confidence):
(A couple are extremely late picks but I call it as I see it).

MCQUALTER, Andrew (17) [Stk] Skilled predator midfielder. Inconspicuous ball magnet. Smart, adaptable, superior user. I was very tempted to put him in the top group. Has been mainly predator and is capable of a higher hurt factor. I think he'll adapt to AFL requirements like a duck to water.
EGAN, Chris (10) [Col] Somewhat enigmatic special talent. Has X-factor.
MORTON, Mitch (44 F/S) [WCE] Classy, smart, self-confident, dual-sided 6' midfielder with broad range of attributes.
BETTS, Eddie (Pre-season) [Car] Unwanted size but freakishly talented FP/rover. If he can stay focussed, is definite AFL despite size. I rated him at 12 in my rankings. THE bargain of the draft.
MEESEN, John ( [Ade] Gets my nod as currently the best all-round ruck due to around the ground ability. Wood probably has more upside.
BATE, Matthew (13) [Mel] Rapidly emerging bottom-age physical athlete. Versatile but raw. I see him primarily as a potential FB.
RUSSELL, Jordan (9) [Car] Athletic 6'2" utility. Flawed kicking and light but a versatile quick dasher.
IACOBUCCI, Adam (55) [Col] Injury-prone vanilla-size quick utility. Accountable quiet achiever. I rated him at 16 in my rankings. Bargain.
ECKERMANN, Ben (51) [Por] Compulsive run-the-lines smallish dasher. Underrated. I rated him at 17 in my rankings. Bargain.
CLOKE, Travis (39 F/S) [Col] Bullish, marking bottom-age KPP. Hasn't yet shown the form most of my other nominations have, but I'm confident he will.
DELUCA, Fabian (35) [Por] Improving 17yo ruck. Height, mobility. Promising but, at this stage at least, is a fair way behind Wood and Meesen.
NEWTON, Michael (43) [Mel] Athletic marking KPP. Inconsistent and I'm not sure if he is a team player but attractive package and upside. Bargain.
PERKINS, Justin (R36) [Kan] '22" athletic, hard-running HBF who can play tallish. Is only a Rookie and is already 22yo (barely) so he may perhaps seem lucky to make this list but I've always felt he was under-rated. Won't be a star but is a very cheap pickup and well worth it. Bargain.
GIBSON, Chad (28) [Ade] Raw but quick, athletic bam-bam potential CHB. Great height / great build bottom-age combination of serious athleticism and intensity. And a team player. Groin injury for many months leading up to '04 Champs so underdone.

Popular opinion would dictate that I should include
MONFRIES, Angus (14) [Ess] Slowish but smart midfielder. Angus is well-credentialed and will definitely play AFL and be consistent but he isn't quick and, although a regular high possession gatherer, doesn't hurt enough for my money.
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VERY SKINNY BUT genuine AFL potential .... if (!) they can bulk up sufficiently. (in draft order):

LITTLE, Matt (26) [Haw] Under-height and very skinny leading, clean-marking deadly forward with exceptional ability to read the play and the flight. Maybe only one trick but it's a good one.
LIMBACH, Dean (52) [Ric] Versatile marking tall. Shown great promise but only in cameo. Officially has a 6cm reach disadvantage but, if he wasn't so damn skinny or I could be sure he could bulk up enough, he'd definitely be in the group above.
BATCHELOR, Nick (R29) [Gee] Tenacious road-runner. Ultra skinny but great ethic on/off-field.
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EARLY PICK QUERIES (in draft order) – I wouldn’t be that surprised if they make it but I have concerns whereas many people would label them "definite" or nearly so:

LEWIS, Jordan (7) [Haw] (see below)
POLO, Dean (20) [Ric] Fearless, 187cm determined goer who plays tallish. Skinny but he's someone who can probably get away with not being as bulky as other players. I greatly admire his style of play (aggressive at both man and ball) and he is clean but, although he is genuinely dual-sided, his kicking action and flailing running style really need a lot of work.
VAN BERLO, Nathan (24) [Ade] Top-age link-man who plays a predator role off the pack. Too off the pack. This assessment will seem a tough call on someone who looks a million dollars, has an attractive range of skills and athleticism and has WAFL Seniors form. I think he could perhaps be even top-shelf at WAFL standard. He just hasn't convinced me re his potential at AFL tempo. Reads the play quite well, moves very well, is super fit even by any AFL criteria. Doesn't get enough of his own pill though. Quality kid, great all-round athletic ability and commitment and doesn't get ahead of himself. A balanced mover who receives or gathers the (usually loose) ball then feeds off efficiently or does an attractive-style, balanced (although not reliably accurate) kick. Can pick up a lot of fairly cheap stats without having much impact. Gets knocked off the ball at this stage but I am not concerned about that as he looks able to bulk up. However, he is vanilla-size, doesn't have special pace or carry the ball much, seems unaccountable, is not reliable overhead, has poor tackling technique on a moving target (although that can be improved) and is quite clean but not special at ground level.
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These players caused me MUCH ANGST IN ASSESSING (in draft order) –

WILLIAMS, Tom (6) [WBD] (see above)
LEWIS, Jordan (7) [Haw] Slow, powerful "ruckrover". Like Moore, great U18 form but will it translate? I have doubts. Jordan was on my draft-day rankings but down at 41. I seriously doubt he will prove to have been worth a first round pick, let alone pick 7, but nor am I particularly confident he won't make it either.
MONFRIES, Angus (14) [Ess] (see above)
DUNN, Lynden (15) [Mel] Improving key forward. Been unconvincing except in patches but is very bottom-age. I eventually ranked him at 28 in a flaky draft but I wouldn't be surprised if he makes it or doesn't.
PATTISON, Adam (16) [Ric] Rapidly-improving 198cm utility. At U18 level, I really admire Adam. My problem in assessing his AFL potential lies in determining a specific AFL role for him and I kept dropping him down in my rankings accordingly, settling at 42. Is he a jack of all trades etc? I'm not sure he has the class for CHF and he was starved of sufficient opportunities in the ruck at U18 level to get a confident handle on his AFL rucking potential. I suspect he will make AFL, I find heaps of attributes to like in him, but I wouldn't be altogether surprised one way or the other.
LEE, Andrew (30) [Ess] Talented serial under-performer. The chocolates smell nice but the box is hard to open. Definitely has the natural talent re skill and athleticism and can play either end (although I think he is best suited to full-back). Not a great reader of the play but, on balance, I suspect he can make it and won't be surprised if it suddenly clicks for him and he goes on to be very good even. Time to start producing for more than 15 minutes every few games though, Andrew.
MOORE, Jarred (31) [Syd] Smallish chunky, mainly predator, onballer. Natural sportsman and, like Lewis, great U18 form. Will it translate? Will he have weight-management problems? Running style needs work (eg Regularly splays his left foot badly. Helps his take-off but costs him speed over ground. Might be genetic?). I'm not writing him off but I have serious doubts about him sustaining an AFL career.
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UP AGAINST IT (from National draft, in draft order) – I’d like to see every committed draftee succeed but these would surprise me:

MURPHY, Thomas (21) [Haw] Honest and disciplined but, at 189cm and lacking pace, is too small for KP and too slow for a flanker. Hawks paid a very high price for him IMHO.
HARTLETT, Adam (25) [Car] Top-age inconsistent tall. Appears to be too flaky for mine. Best is impressive but too spasmodic.
ROSA, Matt (29) [WCE] 189cm skinny outside ball magnet. Good U18 form, big stats, but not special enough for AFL and doesn't hurt enough (especially those floater kicks).
EZARD, James (34) [Por] Can be slippery and is a determined tackler but I think he lacks the class, cleanness and consistent ball-winning ability needed at his size for AFL.
LECRAS, Mark (37) [WCE] Hard runner, works hard off-field and accumulates stats but routinely wastes / turns over his kicks. Doesn't hurt nearly enough for AFL. Reads play well but has poor vision and awareness.
MARIC, Ivan (40) [Ade] Lion-hearted athletic trier who is a late starter and has bulked up a lot recently but lacks the class for AFL. Not a great reader of the play or the flight. Can take a speccy but is not routinely a good judge of a mark. Dicey kick. Very mobile but pace is only so-so.
SHERMAN, Justin (45) [Bri] Has always promised but is a chronic disappointer.
KNIGHTS, Chris (56) [Ade] Injury-impaired '04. Reads ball well and is good in-close but kicking is not reliable enough and his hurt factor needs to improve. Lacks pace (although his poor floppy running style could be improved).
COPPING, Benet (59) [Fre] Skinny mobile, athletic marking tall but I can't identify an AFL role. A couple of years ago he looked likely to be the "next big thing" but he seems to have stagnated since. Lacks strength and, most importantly, intensity.
---------------------------------

BARGAINS (Late picks i.e. >40, excluding F/S, who could belie their draft position) (in draft order).

NEWTON, Michael (43) [Mel] (see above)
SLATTERY, Henry (46) [Ess] 6' reliable handyman and cleans up after. Won't be special but will be solid.
ECKERMANN, Ben (51) [Por] (see above)
LIMBACH, Dean (52) [Ric] (see above)
IACOBUCCI, Adam (55) [Col] (see above)
BETTS, Eddie (Pre-season) [Car]. (see above). THE bargain of the draft (assuming he is committed). Never mind the quantity, feel the quality. Routinely does the impossible and will possibly win more games off his own boot than all but about 10 players in this entire draft.
PERKINS, Justin (R36) [Kan] (see above). (Yes, I know he is a 22yo rookie).
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ROOKIES WITH A FUTURE (Rookies who I think might make AFL) (in draft order):
NB: I realise these are very big calls because they need the opportunity as well as the ability.

NYE, Ryan (R 5) [Ade] Strong 6' defender/utility. Pace is the concern and little exposed form but is a cool, intelligent, genuine footballer and excellent user.
JUNIPER, Jack (R24) [Fre] Very raw, enigmatic athlete with much untapped potential. Decent chance if 100% committed ... but is he???
BATCHELOR, Nick (R29) [Gee] Tenacious road-runner. Ultra skinny but great ethic on/off-field.
PERKINS, Justin (R36) [Kan] (see above). The Rookie in whom I have the most confidence.
MCMAHON, Scott (R38) [Kan] Vanilla size, slowish quarterback/midfielder. Generally pays opponents little respect (backs his judgement at all times) but reliable, smart.
GRUNDY, Heath (R42) [Syd] Tough blue-collar KPP. May be best as FB or 3rd tall defender. Deserved to be picked up in National draft IMHO. Underrated.
---------------------------------

MISSED OUT on being drafted but I rate them

TAYLOR, Craig. Was always most unlikely to be taken due to lack of pace (although ordinary running style can be improved) but I actually rate him highly. Tough, clean, smart, strong, and excellent user. His type often dramatically drop their aspirations and commitment when they miss out. I hope he doesn't and that an AFL club looking for a skilled, Burns-like inside user will give him a chance next year.
REDDEN, Thomas. Very bottom-age 191cm, wiry midfielder. Unproven but smart and works hard, albeit skinny and raw. Plays very much in the style of Michael Tuck. Surprised he was overlooked and I suspect he will cost a club a first round pick (perhaps top 10) next year when he could have been taken with an 80s pick this year. I rated him at 26 in my rankings.
SWALLOW, Andrew. Lightning-quick very bottom-age young goer. I'm not surprised he wasn't drafted as he is a shocking kick. However, IMHO a fundamental flaw in his kicking style is the root of his problem and I am confident it can be improved sufficiently.
CORRIE, Marty. Clever, classy indigenous top-age vanilla-size cool user with a commitment query. If I KNEW he'd adapt to city life and commit himself, I'd rate him genuine AFL. If I KNEW not, no pick. That's my only issue with him.
---------------------------------
I also believe Shannon Cox and Lukas Teague deserved to be rookied ahead of many who were.

http://www.voy.com/51976/52442.html

[one-eyed]

Tigers in yellow - Jackson, Roach, Foley and Archibald. No Gilmour, Hartigan or Raines.

Predictions for “U18” 2003 AFL draftees.

I judge them to have “made AFL” if they have become a regular member of their team in at least two seasons (i.e. not merely occasional games when their club's list is decimated by injuries).

The categories reflect players about whom I feel most confident in making predictions.
-----------------------------------------------

Will be TOP SHELF i.e. household names (in draft order):

There is no “complete package” gimme this year (eg Goddard, Judd, Hodge, Ball, Riewoldt). All the following have flaws of some kind but I believe all are capable of reaching genuinely top-bracket status in an AFL team.

COONEY, Adam (1) [WBD] 6'1" dynamo match winner. Not flawless but has range of attributes.
WALKER, Andrew (2) [Car] Tall athletic dasher / flyer. A bit raw, outside at this stage but very good upside.
SYLVIA, Colin (3) [Mel] Powerhouse 6' “ruck-rover”/forward. Strong overhead but needs to improve kicking accuracy.
TENACE, Kane (7) [Gee] 182cm genuine footballer. Road Runner. Meep! Meep! ... whoosh! 200 gamer
CLARKE, Raphael ( [StK] Enigmatic, immature but a special X-factor talent. Athletic 188cm. If some disturbing elements hadn’t crept in in ’03 I’d declare him “the next big thing”. Still a decent chance he will be.
TROTTER, David (9) [Kan] Classy 6'1" utility. Injured '03 but definite AFL
DUNN, Ryley (10) [Fre] 184cm tough utility. Genuine footballer, plays tall, wide range of attributes. I’m assuming he will improve kicking accuracy. (Is otherwise plug ‘n play).
WATERS, Beau (11) [WCE] Bottom-age fearless 6'1" desperado. Kicking is bit iffy but he plays tall, fierce and uncompromising.
BUTLER, Sam (20) [WCE] Classy, smart, versatile 6'1" bottom-age inside midfielder/HFF. Unheralded late starter but a natural. Smooth mover, big upside.
SCHMIDT, Tim (29) [Syd] Vanilla size but skilled. dynamic, long-kicking powerhouse midfielder.
----------------------------------------

Will be AT LEAST GOOD (in draft order):
(A couple are extremely late picks but I call it as I see it).

RAY, Farren (4) [WBD] “Flower Power comes to AFL”. Courageous but unaccountable will of the wisp 6' speedy winger. Despite skinniness, would be in top category if I knew for sure that he could improve his kicking.
STANTON, Brent (13) [Ess] Classy, daring, vanilla-size athletic utility. Borderline top category.
WATTS, Fergus (14) [Ade] 196cm jumping-jack marking forward. Great ethic, intensity. Still raw but big improver. Lacks some pace but potential ability to help out in ruck adds to his value.
WILLOUGHBY, Josh (16) [Syd] Slight and small but slippery and efficient genuine footballer.
JONES, Chad (24) [Kan] 19yo 196cm quick, athletic leading forward. Good ethic. Good mark, reliable long kick. Project due to skinniness and newness but very good upside. Could even turn out in time to be best tall from the draft. (Is not U18 but I include him as he only misses by 6 months and is a newcomer to footy).
SHAW, Brayden (32 F/S) [Col] Traditional rover - combination of his father and uncle. Natural footballer, leader.
ADCOCK, Jed (33) [Bri] Pacy 6' bulldozer utility. Not at all stylish but deceptively quick and effective in a sledge-hammer way.
JOHNSON, Chris (36 F/S) [Mel] Under-developed but classy utility. Moves well, good overhead. Should be versatile. Injury-impeded ’03.
ROACH, Thomas (37 F/S) [Ric] 6’ dasher who takes them on. Strong overhead and clean. I tossed up whether to include him as he has to improve his kicking and his decision-making under pressure but his upside is promising.
DYSON, Ricky (44) [Ess] Pacy but outside long-kicking wingman/flanker. One-sided and needs to lift accountability
and the hurt factor of his possessions but is potential game-breaker.
SHAW, Heath (48 F/S) [Col] Bit unconventional but is versatile, courageous, consistent, left-field smart.
JACKSON, Daniel (53) [Ric] Seriously athletic 6'1" late starter with great potential. Unlikely to start AFL career until ’05 due to school commitment. Bargain.
SURJAN, Jacob (P10) [Por] Athletic, desperate, 180cm dasher. Works as hard when the opposition has it as when his team has it. A coach’s delight. The bargain of the ’03 drafts.
---------------------------------

VERY RAW BUT HUGE UPSIDE / SCOPE FOR IMPROVEMENT (in draft order)

HALL, Brent (35) [Col] 198cm ruck who I see as potential CHB. Shocking draft camp results didn’t do him justice. Strong, quick, athletic, determined. Extremely raw and under-developed footy-wise but enormous upside, especially once he learns to impose himself physically. Good kid but very reserved and will take time to find his feet (regardless of ability).
-------------------------------------

EARLY PICK QUERIES (in draft order) – I wouldn’t be that surprised if they make it but I have concerns whereas many people would label them "definite":

MCLEAN, Brock (5) [Mel] Chunky 6' tireless, courageous, hard-nut. Lacks polish and speed but is footy-smart, indefatigable and gives 110%.
BRADLEY, Kepler (6) [Ess] Gangly athletic giant. Despite reputation, is not quick. Huge heart and motor. Runs hard, far and relentlessly. Very poor natural balance. Iffy kick - Awkward, unbalanced kicking style. What AFL role suits?
MOODY, Matthew (23) [Bri] Ill '03. 187cm, leaps, marks, goals. Creative. Looks classy but doesn’t stamp himself on a game enough.
---------------------------------

UP AGAINST IT (from National draft, in draft order) – I’d like to see every committed draftee succeed but these would surprise me:

MURPHY, Ryan (12) [Fre] Lightly-built 6’4” utility. Reads well but is very inconsistent - is very much a confidence player and that confidence can be fragile. Giant gap between his good games and his bad.
SPAANDERMAN, Llane (18) [Bri] Bottom-age 198cm. Big unit, athletic, big leap but fails to deliver.
MILLER, Harry (25) [Haw] Slippery small “charge past” goal-sneak with some aboriginal flair. Even at AFL level will be capable of turning an occasional game in 20 minutes. It’s what he does in the other 80 minutes and other games that concerns me.
CAMPBELL, Adam (27) [Fre] 192cm very top-age latecomer KPP from NZ who tantalises but is very skinny and doesn’t impact enough. Good kid, improving, has promise but I’m dubious.
PEEL, Luke (34) [Por] 187cm very young outside defender. Balanced mover and looks the goods in the run but I’m concerned about overhead, intensity. I started out as a fan but have dropped off.
SPENCER, Matthew (42) [Gee] 195/89 mobile tall. Great CV but flawed. Hard worker, big heart but slowish, not good enough overhead.
PETTIGREW, Michael (46) [Por] Pacy versatile tall. Great athletically but skinny and not a natural footballer.
ARCHIBALD, Kyle (81) [Ric] 6’3” bottom-age forward / utility. Accountable. shows on-field leadership. tries but doesn't look at all AFL. Known as a leading forward but best role may even be in defence.
---------------------------------------

BARGAINS (Late picks i.e. >40 who could belie their draft position) (in draft order).

DYSON, Ricky (44) [Ess] See above. There are some legitimate concerns but, other than one-sidedness, Ricky can address them all by “simply” choosing to change his mindset.
JACKSON, Daniel (53) [Ric] See above. The bargain of the draft, along with Surjan. Definite AFL.
ROWE, Julian (60) [Col] Slim, somewhat outside, 187cm wingman/flanker. Good user.
SURJAN, Jacob (P10) [Por] See above. The bargain of the ’03 drafts. Definite AFL.
------------------------------------

ROOKIES WITH A FUTURE (Rookies who I think might make AFL) (in draft order):
NB: I realise these are very big calls because they need the opportunity as well as the ability.

FOLEY, Nathan (R 4) [Ric] 178cm quick, creative, courageous inside midfielder/HFF ball magnet. Needs to strengthen and will take time.
DUFFIELD, Paul (R10) [Fre] Smooth 6'1" HBF/ link man who works hard. Not quick, no certainty but smart, smooth mover.
COSGRIFF, Ben (R11) [Ess] Strong 6’1” U18 FF suited to AFL HBF but could play forward also. Hamill-like strength and attack on man & ball.
ALLAN, James (R21) [Gee] Very small traditional rover. Injured all '03. Clubman, team player, coachable, great ethic on/off field. Not naturally gifted but a genuine footballer. I rate him despite size.
BERGIN, Shaun (R53) [Haw] Very top-age but late bloomer. Ultra-skinny but courageous 6’ dasher. Pace, daring, leap, raking left foot. I tossed up whether to include him as he has had difficulty adding weight and is a confidence player. If I could be confident he could add enough weight, I’d “declare” him AFL - but that’s a very big “if”.
POTTER, Nick (R66) [Syd] Underrated 6' strong, quick on-baller. Hard, good at stop plays. Must improve kicking.

http://www.voy.com/51976/52447.html

[one-eyed]

Tigers in yellow. Schulz and Sipthorp only. In the middle of the Spud years = no youth  .

Predictions for U18 2002 AFL draftees.

I judge them to have “made AFL” if they become a regular member of their team on merit/form (i.e. not merely when their club's list is decimated by injuries).

The categories reflect players about whom I feel most confident in making predictions.
------------------------------------------------
Will be TOP SHELF (i.e. household names) (in draft order):

GODDARD, Brendon (1) [StK] 6'2" midfld/utility, can play tall or small. No obvious fault. Will be best of the draft. Ready immediately and should impact immediately.

WELLS, Daniel (2) [Kang] Silky speedster. Physically not ready but so skilfull he will debut immediately and should impact immediately.

BRENNAN, Jared (3) [Bris] “X” factor. Huge scope. 6'4" jack-in-the box ultra-versatile Daryl White / Kouta freak. Likely cult figure. Physically immature but will play some games 2003.

McVEIGH, Jarrad (5) [Syd] Classy, athletic. Might take time to regain touch but should still debut sometime 2003.

SALOPEK, Steven (6) [Port] Young 6' plug n play class midfielder. Lacks pace but smart, good overhead. Ready and will impact immediately.

LAYCOCK, Jason (10) [Ess] Laconic forward/ruck. Late starter with enormous upside. Physically not ready but should still debut sometime 2003, possibly as CHF/supplementary ruck.

WINDERLICH, Jason (11) [Ess] Frenetic clever athletic skinny 6' utility. An unusual cat. Needs time to bulk up.

SCHAMMER, Byron (13) [Fre] Small quick terrier traditional rover. Ready and should impact immediately.

FERGUSON, Matthew (22) [StK] Versatile athletic marking 6'1" all-rounder. Huge scope for development but needs some time.

GRIMA, Blake (38) [Kang] Classy professional 5'10" long-kicking inside midfielder. Clearance specialist. Will play 2003 despite not being free to train fully until March.

WATSON, Jobe (44F) [Ess] 6’2” mature “ruckrover”. Misiti successor. Not pretty but strong over the ball, smart, brings teammates into game. Ready and will impact immediately.
-------------------------------------

Will be AT LEAST GOOD (in draft order):
(A couple are extremely late picks but I call it as I see it).

BRENNAN, Luke ( [Haw] Young 6’1” tough, leaping utility. Mini Craig Kelly. Somewhat one-sided, not silky but effective “take no prisoners” type. Well-built but raw. Not 2003.

BELL, Daniel (14) [Mel] 6'1", well built, athletic (pace, leap, agility), strong oh, lovely kick, determined, chases hard, quick reflexes, good vision. Bit one-dimensional, one-sided. Not 18 til 4/03.

SMITH, Nick (15) [Mel] Strong 6’5” key (especially defensive). Cool, leader. Versatile if improves pace, disposal a bit. Maybe late ’03.

GILHAM, Stephen (16) [Port] Skinny 6'3" smart athletic would-be Paul Roos. Physically very immature (and may always be skinny) but might still debut late ’03.

CARTLEDGE, Tristan (28) [Ess] Young project agile ruck/forward. Needs, and is worth, patience.

MERRETT, Daniel (30) [Bris] New to game and just starting to learn but is instinctive. Raw, desperate, strong, agile 6’5”. Big upside. Probably debut ’04.

DEMPSTER, Sean (38F) [Syd] Versatile rapidly improving 6’3” late-starter. Size, skills. May even sneak a few games late ’03, such is his rate of improvement.

CORRIE, Anthony (44) [Bris] Skinny 6'1" goal-kicking HBF excitement machine. Physically immature so probably wait til ’04 – but look out when he does.

EDGCUMBE, Greg (48) [Fre] Improving, straight-line, attacking 6’1” utility. Not classy but opens play and straightens up his team. Could even get some games ’03.

SIPTHORP, Daniel (62) [Rich] Ungainly, unfashionable 6’2” John Blakey type utility. One-sided, has tip-toe running style, jumps “straight up” rather than “into”, and must improve kicking but is instinctive under pressure & deceptively-skilled. A work-in-progress so will take time. Unlikely choice for this category but I have more faith in him than others do.

MOLONEY, Brent (P03) [Geel] Very underrated 5'11" dashing, long-kicking, break the lines, goalkicking, impact midfielder. A 90m player who will benefit from living handier and club regimen. Could debut late ’03.
------------------------------------------

EARLY PICK QUERIES (in draft order) – I wouldn’t be that surprised if they make it but I have concerns whereas many people would label them "definite":

WALSH, Tim (4) [WBD] 6'5" athletic, stylish, versatile, tall. Lacks intensity. Almost universally highly rated and I’d also be really positive about him if I could be sure he would address my concerns re intensity. That’s the “if” though. Won’t be AFL-ready in ’03.

NIXON, Bo (21) [Coll] 6'3, well-built utility. Spots, feeds. Plays shortish. Overrated o/h but good inside traffic. Not intense or clean. NQR? Won’t be AFL-ready in ’03.

JOHNSON, Paul (24) [WCE] Lion-hearted powerful giant. Leading-forward and part-time ruck. Magnificent kick, special small-man skills but NQR tall-man skills, especially poor overhead.
------------------------------------

UP AGAINST IT (in draft order) – I’d like to see almost every draftee succeed but these would surprise me:

MCINTOSH, Hamish (9) [Kang] Flawed but improved pack-marking giant. Forward more than ruck. Query at AFL tempo.

SCHULTZ, Jay (12) [Rich] Versatile but frustrating 6’4” key. Touted on U16 form. Shows some leadership. Looks the part and his best is so classy that he is the most likely in this list to make me eat my words. Very young but his best is all too rare and he goes missing a lot.

SHORE, Kris (18) [Kang] Young raw, skinny 6’2” leaping athlete. Some promise but not clean. Theoretically versatile but maybe NQR for any one role. Will take time regardless.

SHACKLETON, Luke (29) [Coll] Unfashionable shape mini Archer. NQR for any one role and weight management a problem.

JERICHO, Luke (32) 6'3" athlete. [Ade] Great kick. Intensity and footy smarts a worry. Highly-rated but not by me.

MURPHY, Brad (33) [WBD] 6’1 outside goal-kicking utility. Not clean and kicks don’t hurt.

STAKER, Brent (37) [WCE] Big improver late season. Lacks composure & hands not good.

FISHER, Leigh (46) [StK] Clever strong midfielder. Good user but slow, not versatile.

WIGHT, Cameron (49) [WBD] Skinny ruck project. Improving, but poor decision-maker.

THEWLIS, Josh (50) [Syd] Raw 6’1” flashy dasher. Big-grab, plays straight. Poor hands & decision-making.

BOYLE, Tim (51) [Haw] Sudden improver. 6’3” CHB. Relies on excellent overhead ability. A few queries including intensity.

CROWLEY, Ryan (55) [Fre] Running athletic 6’2” utility. Mini Gaspar. Poor disposal is his major obstacle.

CROAD, Cameron (60) [Car] 6’2” pacy U18 FF athlete. Lacks commitment, smarts, reliability. NQR.

DOSWELL, Brett (63) [Fre] 6’ battler. Neither one thing nor the other. Poor decisions.

VEALE, Lochlan (65) [Haw] 6’3” lion-hearted accountable goer. Improving project but NQR.
------------------------------------

BARGAINS (Late picks i.e. >40 who could belie their draft position) (in draft order).
NB: The Rookie ones are particularly big calls as they need opportunity as well as the ability.

CORRIE, Anthony (44) [Bris] (see comments above). A gift at #44.

EDGCUMBE, Greg (48) [Fre] (see comments above).

SIPTHORP, Daniel (62) [Rich] (see comments above).

MALCESKI, Nick (64) [Syd] Eccentric unfashionable 6’1” utility. Tip-toe running style. Very left-field clever. Bit of X factor. Physically immature. Probably debut 2004.

FISHER, Brad (72) [Car] Skinny, athletic, very versatile, marking tall utility. Appealing upside. Physically not ready but, with Carlton’s list, I would still expect him to debut sometime in 2003. A gift at #72.

MOLONEY, Brent (P03) [Geel] (see comments above). A gift at PreSeason #3

MULLINS, Luke (P05) [Coll] 187cm "no fuss" creative outside wing/HFF. Seems casual but is good overhead and smart. Untapped scope for athletic improvement. Physically immature and will need time. A gift at PreSeason #5

JORGENSEN, Travis (R24) [Geel] Smart marking accountable utility. Plays taller than 6’1”. Good worker bee.

JOHNS, Courtney (R28) [Ess] Raw, strong, versatile, athletic tall. Form says no, upside yes. Injury query so won’t be seen until 2004 at the earliest but more likely 2005.

WILSON, Adrian (R44) [Ess] Forward/utility in the Hasleby mould. Skills, smarts. Will be genuinely good AFL player if committed.

BEVAN, Paul (R64) [Syd] 5’11” utility. Disappointing '02. Versatile, smart. May become a defender/negator. I was very surprised he wasn’t drafted in the National Draft.

SHELTON, Paul (R72) [Bris] Classy 5’10 midfield ball magnet. Disposal, smarts. I was extremely surprised he wasn’t picked up in the National Draft.
--------------------------------

ROOKIES WITH A FUTURE (Rookies who I think might make AFL) (in order of my expectation):
NB: I realise these are very big calls because they need the opportunity as well as the ability.

SHELTON, Paul (R72) [Bris] (see comments above).

WILSON, Adrian (R44) [Ess] (see comments above).

JOHNS, Courtney (R28) [Ess] (see comments above).

JORGENSEN, Travis (R24) [Geel] (see comments above).

BEVAN, Paul (R64) 6’ utility. (Syd] (see comments above).

PARKER, Aidan* (R45) [Ade] Well-performed but unspectacular 6'4" WAFL defender. (* Has been out of U18s for a year but I include him as a relatively young new 2003 Rookie).

http://www.voy.com/51976/52452.html

[one-eyed]

The 2001 Super Draft - Tiger (singular - thanks Danny) in yellow -> Rodan. No Marty McGrath.

Predictions for “U18” 2001 AFL draftees.

I judge them to have “made AFL” if they become a regular member of their team on merit/form (i.e. not merely when their club's list is decimated by injuries).

The categories reflect players about whom I feel most confident in making predictions.
-------------------------------------------------

"Definitely" succeed (in draft order):

*Hodge (1) tough, exciting matchwinner.

*Ball (2) ultra reliable ball magnet.

*Judd (3) Professional on baller. I'm glad we couldn't take him because of shoulder injuries but will be a gun.

*Polak (4) Reputation much greater than his form but will make it. I see him as a CHB rather than CHF though.

*Bartel ( courageous in 'n under

*Cole (11) fast, exciting, silky, long kicker

*Seaby (22) athletic high marking very young ruck / FP

*Campbell Brown (32) Captain Courageous, smart small tagger / backman. Could be a great tagger.

*Rodan (33) Prince of silky smalls. Will be exciting and a cult figure

*Ablett (40#) Clever excitement machine. Does the impossible but needs to get more of it

*McGough (43)
-------------------------------------------

Probables (in draft order):

*X Clarke (5) hugely skilled but burst player rather than consistent

*Sampi (6) hugely skilled but flashy and in bursts and needs to get more of it and do the bread and butter stuff too.

*Molan (9) high marking, versatile, determined

*Kelly (17) quickish classy clearance specialist who is very versatile <- (I rated him Adefinite@ personally. My only concern was he may not get enough opportunity at Geelong)

*Elstone (20) tough, clever in 'n under ball magnet who doesn't stray far from centre circle

*Maguire (21) very young versatile athletic key

*Gardiner (23) oozes class but goes missing a bit

*Armstrong (25) courageous ball magnet

*Roberts Thompson (29#) if he is fair dinkum about AFL (instead of rugby).

*Crowe (30) athlete 1st, footballer 2nd but he is not just an athlete. Best as AFL CHB or FB?

*Finnin (44) skinny, clever, athletic mark not ready in 2002
-----------------------------------------

Queries Good chance of making it but I have concerns whereas everyone else would call them "definite":

*Power (10) Very cool outside player with absolutely superb left foot. My concern is that he is one sided and a receiver only.

*Brooks (15) ultra reliable pack mark with great stamina. I'm not convinced about his ruck work so I'm not sure where he is suited.

*Dal Santo Clever wing/hbf/onballer best suited to a tagger or defence role on a not over quick opponent. Excellent finisher but I've rated him probably lower than most because he lacks pace, is one sided, and is neither a physically strong in and under type or a ball magnet, and is not especially strong overhead. When you are just under 6', I think you need more going for you.

Also
*Davidson could be a 100+ gamer because he has all the skills and athleticism and incredible versatility but needs to a 100 minute, 22 week player instead of just a burst player who disappears in between). Could be a Saddington or a Mark Kinnear but it's up to him.
----------------------------------------

Doubtful picks < 60:

*Rogers (26) plays smaller than his 6'4" and unreliable kick. Clever team man good at ground level though.

*Waite (46) just a battler? Big mark, big kick but lacks poise, balance, smarts and is a turnover merchant.

*Playfair (41) An oversized athlete more than a footballer but gives his best. Cats are
impressed though.
-----------------------------------

"Won't" make it picks < 60:

*Hale (7) Very athletic but very skinny tall. 1st round pick so I am really going out on a limb but I see him as awkward with poor balance and hard hands. Very young age in his favour.

*Hansen (38) capable of a mark and a nice move but has hard hands, poor balance.

*Schuback (59) Dashing with thumping left foot but no poise or footy smarts.

*Hunt (53) Underweight athlete who doesn't get the ball rather than footballer at this stage.
-----------------------------

Late picks i.e. >40 who could bely their draft position:

*McGough (43) Will succeed.

*Jamar (Rookie draft 6) Will definitely make it if given the chance, IMHO. Seriously underrated.

*Brad Miller (Melb) (55) No certainty but a good outsider bet. 2 grab marking tall inclined to occasional turnovers so has a bit of work to do. Natural leader and determined, athletic tall. I see him as a potential A Dunkley but he must improve his disposal.

*Schneider (60) Tiny but skilled ball magnet.
----------------------------------

Rookies who I think will make AFL (in order):

NB: I realise these are big calls because they need the opportunity as well as the ability. I would normally only go for 1 or 2 but .....


*Jamar (Rookie draft 6) Will definitely make it if given the chance, IMHO. (Even in 2002). Seriously underrated.

*Rutten (R 40) Not given enough credit. I think he can make it.

*Raines (R 66#) Late developer but definite AFL prospect. [Ed. I think this is Nick (?) ]

Other Rookie possibilities:

*Seigert (2001 Rookie) No champ but a bread 'n butter team man. Good WAFL form 2001.

*Carrazzo (R 5) Won't fail for lack of work. Cheeky ball magnet who needs to keep working on disposal.

*Webster (R 1) No speedster but courageous and genuine footballer.

*Lynch (R 19) His biggest problem is his temperament.

http://www.voy.com/51976/52455.html

[bluey_21]

I bet Wiseby is eating humble pie, saying Griffen would be the top pick in a heartbeat. Deledio absolutely spanked Griffen's arse last year, and will do so until he retires